【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月25日 【行情分析】 2月25日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在93%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水平。截 至2月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降13.93个百分点至19.8%，春节假期，下游多数停工放假，整 体PE下游开工率季节性下滑。春节期间石化库存增加48万吨至94万吨，周三石化早库下降6.5万吨至 87.5万吨，较去年农历同期低了6.5万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水 平。成本端，市场对伊朗局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油库存减少901.4万桶， 且成品油库存全线下降，春节假期海外原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东） FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有上涨。目前市场报价大 稳小动，塑料供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近日 有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 塑料2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6766元/吨， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月25日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。供应端，春节前，PVC开工率环比增加0.83个百分点至80.09%，PVC 开工率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。春节期间，PVC下游绝大多数停工。出口方面，春节 前，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销售压力不大。中国台湾台塑 PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，目前仍偏高， 库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比 降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落， 春节期间，商品房成交低迷，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下 降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，春节后现货成交清淡， 社会库存继续增加。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻关等关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙 烯行业无汞化转型，加上抢出口节后有望延续，市场对于春节后仍有政策及检修预期，PVC弱现实， 强预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a dedicated materials research and development team and is collaborating with leading industry players for joint development, with some materials already being supplied in bulk to customers [2] Group 1 - The new materials business currently represents a very small proportion of the company's revenue, indicating potential uncertainty for future growth [2] - The company emphasizes confidentiality regarding specific customer collaborations and will disclose significant developments in accordance with relevant regulations [2]

2026年国内聚乙烯新增产能预计达615万~729万吨，产能增速为15%～18.5%。投产节奏呈现"前低后 高"特征，上半年新增产能有限，下半年市场供应逐步增加。 从原料路线来看，新增产能以油制装置为主，华锦阿美、中沙古雷等大炼化企业贡献颇多，同时煤制装 置也迎来集中投产。其中，巴斯夫湛江一体化基地50万吨聚乙烯装置，已于2026年1月投产；中国石油 独山子石化塔里木120万吨二期乙烯项目将于2026年全面建成，包括两套45万吨全密度聚乙烯、30万吨 低密度聚乙烯装置。 从产品结构看，新增产能呈现明显优化趋势。卓创资讯数据显示，全密度装置计划投产量为275万吨， 占比最大；高密度聚乙烯(HDPE)装置205万吨紧随其后。线型低密度聚乙烯(LLDPE)投产速度明显放 缓，部分新装置计划生产茂金属LLDPE等差异化产品。据测算，2026年LLDPE有效产能增速预估仅 4%，远低于2025年的24%的增速。低密度聚乙烯(LDPE)与LDPE/EVA装置自2025年起投产规模持续扩 大，行业高端化、差异化转型趋势清晰。 金联创分析师周瑞侠认为，2026年聚乙烯行业供需关系将持续调整，整体呈现"阶段求平衡、价格快波 动 ...

初级形态的塑料产量：4.4 万吨 同比增长：6.8% 摘要：【图】2025年8月云南省初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 2025年8月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 据统计，2025年1－8月，云南省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了4.0%， 达31.2万吨，增速较上一年同期低6.1个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低7.6个百分点，约占同期 全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量9707.30625万吨的比重为0.3%。详见下图： 增速较上一年同期变化：低0.1个百分点 据统计，2025年8月云南省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了6.8%，达4.4万 吨，增速较上一年同期低0.1个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低6.0个百分点，约占同期全国规模 以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1265.70537万吨的比重为0.4%。 详见下图： 图1：云南省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-8月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 初级形态的塑料产量：31.2 万吨 同比增长：4.0% 增速较上一年同期变化：低6.1个百分点 图2：云南省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：初级形态 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格较春节前大幅下跌165元/吨。供应端，春节前，PVC开工率环比增加0.83 个百分点至80.09%，PVC开工率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。春节期间，PVC下游绝大多数 停工。出口方面，春节前，价格上涨后，国内出口签单环比回落，但之前的抢出口使得企业销售压 力不大。中国台湾台塑PVC出口3月份船货离岸价环比2月上调40美元/吨。社会库存在春节假期期间 增加较多，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品 房周度成交面积环比回落，春节期间，商品房成交低迷，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压， 部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡 季，春节后现货成交清淡，社会库存继续增加。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻关等 关键环节，加快推动聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型，加上抢出口节后有望延续，市场对于春节后仍有政 策及检修 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 【行情分析】 2月24日，齐鲁石化LDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至93%左右，目前开工率处于中 性偏高水平。截至2月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降13.93个百分点至19.8%，春节假期，下游多 数停工放假，整体PE下游开工率季节性下滑。春节期间石化早库增加48万吨至94万吨，较去年农历 同期低了2万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，市场对伊朗 局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油库存减少901.4万桶，且成品油库存全线下降， 海外原油价格涨幅较大，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万 吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有上涨。目前市场报价大稳小动，塑 料供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近日有新增产能 投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 塑料2605合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6707元/吨，最高价6855元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-24 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 核心观点总结 聚烯烃：地缘冲突加剧，预计偏强震荡 01 重点关注：下游需求情况、库存情况、委内瑞拉局势、伊朗局势、原油价格波动 1 市场变化：2月13日塑料主力合约收盘价6644元/吨，周环比-2.47%。LDPE均价为8700元/吨，环比-0.57%，HDPE均价为 7375元/吨，环比-0%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6930.56元/吨，环比-1.17%。LLDPE华南基差收于286.56元/吨，环 比-1.79%，5-9月差-65元/吨（-13）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6568元/吨，较上周末-123元/吨，环比-1.84%。生意社聚丙 烯现货价报收6640元/吨（+0%）。PP基差收72元/吨（123），5-9月差-32元/吨（1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率87.30%，较上周+1.39个百分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].