1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase PVC export costs, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. There is certain negative sentiment in the short - term, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For the 2605 contract, the reference range is 4700 - 4900, and investors can consider the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC contracts is stable and higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread is also stable compared to the previous period and higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintains a contango pattern, with expectations stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread is stable compared to the previous period and lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounds slightly compared to the previous period but is weaker year - on - year [19]. 3.2 Supply End - In 2025, the new PVC production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity is planned, and the expansion of PVC production capacity is coming to an end. Last week, PVC output was 487,900 tons, a 0.83% increase from the previous week and a 4.03% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the increased load of some devices [25]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC is 20.25 million tons, accounting for about 69.8%. Last week, the output was 343,400 tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week and the same as the same period last year [28]. - As of now, the effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC is 8.77 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. Last week, the output was 144,500 tons, a 0.82% decrease from the previous week and a 14.96% increase year - on - year [32]. - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.67%, a 1.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.33 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The maintenance loss was 124,500 tons [36]. - Last week, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, a 0.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.41 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, a 0.27 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.12 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period [39]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC import volume was 202,100 tons, a 1.46% increase year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume of plastics and their products in China was 17.63 million tons, a 6.32% decrease year - on - year [42]. 3.3 Demand End - From January to November 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.901 million tons, a 0.99% decrease year - on - year. Last week, the PVC production and sales rate was 186%, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 50 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [49]. - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of downstream PVC products remained at a low level. This is mainly due to the slowdown of construction in winter, the suspension of construction sites in the north, the entry of municipal and infrastructure project demand into the seasonal off - season, and the decrease in demand for pipes due to the sluggish real estate market [53]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations were India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November, and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [61]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year. The main destinations were Europe and the United States. Affected by trade frictions and weak external demand, the export of products continued to shrink [63]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 1.1141 million tons, a 3.47% increase from the previous week and a 44.71% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 328,200 tons, a 6.14% increase from the previous week and a 27.36% increase year - on - year. Both social and enterprise inventories increased [69][76]. 3.5 Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke was stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide rebounded slightly compared to the previous period, with the mainstream price in Wuhai area reported at 2,400 yuan/ton [80]. - Last week, the price of ethylene was weakly stable and at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable compared to the previous period and at the lowest level in the same period over the years [84]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly compared to the previous period and was at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine first increased and then decreased, and was higher year - on - year [88]. - Last week, the loss of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC production decreased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC also decreased, and the year - on - year loss decreased [91]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased slightly compared to the previous period but decreased year - on - year [95].

截至2026年1月9日收盘，聚石化学（688669）报收于27.39元，较上周的23.24元上涨17.86%。本周，聚 石化学1月9日盘中最高价报27.49元。1月6日盘中最低价报22.81元。聚石化学当前最新总市值33.23亿 元，在塑料板块市值排名58/72，在两市A股市值排名4418/5182。 关于收到《行政处罚事先告知书》的公告 广东聚石化学股份有限公司于2026年1月9日收到中国证监会广东监管局下发的《行政处罚事先告知 书》，因公司涉嫌通过虚假贸易业务虚增收入、成本和利润，导致2023年半年度报告存在虚假记载。公 司拟被处以警告并罚款240万元，相关责任人陈钢、刘鹏辉、伍洋、徐建军也被处以警告及相应罚款。 公司已对相关财务数据进行调整，目前经营正常，未触及退市或其他风险警示情形。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 公司公告汇总：因虚假贸易虚增收入，聚石化学收证监会《行政处罚事先告知书》 公司公告汇总：周侃减持37,000股，伍洋未实施减持，减持计划期满结束 公司公告汇总 董事、高级管理人员减持股份结果公告 ...

04 成本端 电价预期带动反弹， 整体基本面仍然承压 PVC周报 2026/01/10 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2400元/吨，周同比上涨75元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，周同比持平；兰炭陕西中料820元/吨，周同比持 平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续修复，乙烯制利润上升，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.7%，环比上升1%；其中电石法79.7%，环比上升1.4%；乙烯法79.6%，环比上升0.3%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升，主 因河南宇航、陕西金泰、宁波韩华负荷提升，下周预期负荷进一步回升。1月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，减产幅度偏小，供应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面出口印度阻力减小，但存在淡季压力；三大下游开工持稳，管材负荷35.4%，环比下 ...

CONTENTS 目录 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 徐绍祖（联系人） 春检将至， 持续反弹 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/10 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：国际地缘冲突升级，美国将接管委内瑞拉石油出口。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞现货＞成本），聚丙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-3.38%，Brent原油下跌-4.72%，煤价上涨3.43%，甲醇上涨3.94%，乙烯下跌-0.89%，丙烯上涨1.40%，丙 烷上涨1.87%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.39%，环比上涨1.24%，同比去年下降-3.17%，较5年同期下降-8.36%。PP产能利用率73.85%，环比下降- 3.97%，同比去年下降-7.22%，较5年同期下降-17. ...

发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 塑料2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6602元/吨，最高价6685元/吨，最终收盘于6674元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.17%。持仓量减少14010手至491289手。 现货方面： PE现货市场涨跌互现，涨跌幅在-100至+100元/吨之间，LLDPE报6500-6770元/吨，LDPE报 8650-9110元/吨，HDPE报6750-8340元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 1月9日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在87%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月9 日当周，元旦节后，PE下游开工率环比上升0.06个百分点至41.21%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继 续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应 ...

Market Performance - The plastic sector increased by 2.62% on January 9, with Jinfa Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Top Gainers in Plastic Sector - Jinfa Technology (600143) closed at 20.92, up 9.99% with a trading volume of 2.88 million shares [1] - Daon Shares (002838) also rose by 9.99% to 27.31, with a trading volume of 123,400 shares [1] - Kent Shares (301591) increased by 9.84% to 46.00, with a trading volume of 72,100 shares [1] - Other notable gainers include Shangwei New Materials (688585) up 8.75% and Meilian New Materials (300586) up 5.14% [1] Market Trends and Capital Flow - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 827 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.172 billion yuan [2] - The top stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors include Jinfa Technology and Meilian New Materials [3] Capital Flow Analysis - Jinfa Technology had a net inflow of 1.663 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 963 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Daon Shares saw a net inflow of 63.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 33.22 million yuan [3] - Meilian New Materials had a net inflow of 60.29 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow from retail investors [3]

2026 年 1 月 9 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明 国 泰 君 安 期 货 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6628 | -0.21% | 657423 | -379 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -128 | | -162 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -37 | | -45 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6500 | | 6480 | | | | 华东 | 6560 | | 6550 | | | | 华南 | 6550 | | 6550 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货涨势有所放缓，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期矛盾不大，库存向中游转移, 仓单暂停去化，今日成交氛围有所转淡。外盘 ...

一、PEEK：特种工程塑料金字塔塔尖的高性能材料，下游应用领域广泛 自上世纪60年代起，欧美国家的各大公司先后对一系列高性能聚合物进行了大量的研发，但最终真正具有 应用价值且实现产业化的品种不足10个。目前已有三大类特种工程塑料实现商品化，分别为聚酰亚胺类、 聚芳醚类和聚芳酯类。其中，热塑性特种工程塑料的典型代表为聚芳醚类，主要包括聚芳醚酮、聚芳醚砜 和聚芳硫醚。在这三类聚合物中，聚芳醚酮（PAEK）是耐热等级最高的，目前已经开发成功的品种包括 聚醚醚酮（PEEK）、聚醚酮酮（PEKK）、聚醚酮（PEK）、聚醚醚酮酮（PEEKK）和聚醚酮醚酮酮 （PEKEKK）。 在各类聚芳醚酮中，聚醚醚酮（PEEK）是最主要的品种，其物理和化学性能优异。由于PEEK的分子链中 含有大量的苯环，具有优良的物理和化学性质、力学和热等性能。PEEK的熔点达到343℃，玻璃化转变温 度（Tg）为143℃，拉伸强度达到100MPa。而且在250℃的高温下，PEEK也能保持较高的耐磨性和较低的 摩擦系数。由于PEEK材料具有耐热性、耐磨性、耐疲劳性、耐辐照性、耐剥离性、抗蠕变性、尺寸稳定 性、耐冲击性、耐化学药品性、无毒、阻燃等优异的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The overall PE downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the improvement in the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited, so the recent upward space for plastics is expected to be limited. Due to new production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices were added on January 8, and the plastic operating rate decreased to around 87%. As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. Crude oil prices are still weak. There are new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, the downstream operating rate is expected to decline, and downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness. Although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6605 yuan/ton, the highest was 6720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6628 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.05%. The position volume decreased by 379 lots to 505,299 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations between - 100 and + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6670 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8550 - 9010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6700 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - On January 8, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1][4]. 3.3.2 Demand - As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.3 Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 57.5 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The new year's inventory accumulation was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1][4]. 3.3.4 Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to $60/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $745/ton [4].

证券之星消息，1月8日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.14%，万凯新材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4082.98，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于13959.48，下跌0.51%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301216 | 万凯新材 | 20.36 | 15.16% | 55.12万 | | 10.98亿 | | 600135 | 乐凯胶片 | 12.72 | 10.03% | 47.81万 | | · 5.86亿 | | 002324 | 普利特 | 23.42 | 10.00% | 18.14万 | | 4.25亿 | | 002361 | 神剑股份 | 15.85 | 9.99% | 312.63万 | | 47.64亿 | | 688669 | 緊石化学 | 26.69 | 6.85% | 4.45万 | | 1.17亿 | | 301237 | 和顺科技 | 58.58 | 5.87% | 4.58万 | | 2.64亿 | | ...