随着日本政府公布1100亿美元规模的财政刺激计划，"高市交易"升级，日本长期债券遭抛售，10年期日 债收益率飙升至2008年金融危机以来最高水平，30年期日债收益率更创盘中历史新高。 金融市场独立分析师佩雷拉（Shanaka Anslem Perera）称，传统经济学理论中，刺激计划的宣布通常会 承诺经济增长、降低债券收益率，"日本市场恰恰相反，这种反应实际上是对日本主权债务可持续性的 不信任投票。"日本的债务负担约占其国内生产总值（GDP）的250%，利息支付已占年度税收收入的约 23%。佩雷拉估计，日债收益率每增加100个基点，日本政府的年度融资负担就会增加超过2.8万亿日 元。 瑞穗首席策略师大森（Shoki Omori）认为："市场这两个交易日确实可能反应过度，但显然，日本政府 将不得不发行长期债券来为其扩张性支出计划提供资金。"此外，他补充称，越来越多投的资者认为日 本的宏观经济形势正在变得"混乱"，这种情绪不仅体现在日本国债收益率上，也体现在日元和日股中。 18日，日元对美元汇率自2月以来首次跌破155日元，创自今年1月以来最低水平。日经225指数创下今年 4月初以来最大单日跌幅。 日本内阁府17 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 11 月 20 日 10 月外汇市场分析报告 美元反弹无碍人民币升值，"双节"扰动消退 相关研究报告 《2022 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率大起 大落，彰显外汇市场韧性》20230201 《2023 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续 调整，境内外汇供求和跨境资金流动生变》 20240123 《2024 年外汇市场分析报告：汇率维稳目标顺 利完成，境内外汇供求缺口扩大》20250123 《1 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率双向波 动，外汇供求缺口继续扩大》20250221 《2 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续双向 波动，外汇供求缺口收窄》20250321 《3 月外汇市场分析报告：特朗普关税政策加 码，银行结售汇差额转正》20250424 《4 月外汇市场分析报告：极限关税施压无碍银 行结售汇顺差扩大》20250521 《5 月外汇市场分析报告：中美贸易冲突缓和， 人民币汇率压力明显缓解，银行结售汇顺差继 续扩大》20250622 证券分析师: 刘立品 (8610)66229236 lipin.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in the exchange rate, approaching 88.80, is primarily influenced by the overall strength of the US dollar and market adjustments to Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [1][2]. Policy Background and Market Expectations - In October, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with most policymakers favoring rate stability to avoid hindering inflation's return to the 2% target [2]. - Disagreements emerged among officials regarding further rate cuts during the December meeting, with some arguing that continued easing could elevate inflation expectations and undermine public confidence in achieving inflation targets [2]. - Market tools indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.50%-3.75% in December dropped from 50.1% to 32.8%, reflecting a significant re-evaluation of monetary policy expectations [2]. Dollar Index and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The dollar index recently reached a five-month high of approximately 100.40, indicating the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, which has supported the rise of the dollar against the Indian rupee [3]. - The dollar's strength is attributed to market expectations of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve and uncertainties in the global economic environment [3]. Technical Analysis Perspective - Technically, the dollar-rupee exchange rate found support near the 20-day exponential moving average, ending a four-day decline, with the average positioned around 88.70 [5]. - Momentum indicators show the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to around 60.00, suggesting potential bullish momentum if it remains above this level [5]. - Key support is identified at the August 21 low of 87.07, while the historical high of 89.12 is noted as a critical resistance level to watch [5].

美元指数技术分析 从技术层面观察，美元指数自99.50低位开启反弹行情后，近期已进入震荡上行通道，当前指数站稳 100.20关键支撑位后态势偏强，最新报价100.246。关键支撑位依次为100.20、100.10以及50小时移动平 均线（当前位置约100.05），若指数有效跌破100.00整数关口，可能触发阶段性回调；阻力区域则集中 在100.30、100.40及前期震荡上沿100.50，指数突破该区间需依托美国经济数据超预期或美联储鹰派信 号加持。技术指标显示，MACD指标红色能量柱小幅放大，相对强弱指标运行于55-60的中性偏多区 间，平均趋向指标升至22附近，表明当前指数上行趋势性逐步增强，短期内大概率在100.10-100.40区间 内震荡上行。展望后市，若指数能够站稳100.30上方，反弹目标可看向100.40-100.60；若跌破100.10支 撑，下行空间或延伸至100.05-100.00。交易层面建议以100.15-100.20区间为支撑依托布局多单，同时密 切跟踪美联储政策动态及美国核心经济数据，警惕数据不及预期引发的指数反向波动风险。 11月20日交易时段内，美元指数以100.120平开， ...

在东京债券市场，日本长期国债普遍因遭到抛售而价格下跌，导致收益率不断上扬，接连突破历史高 点。19日，由于投资者购债意欲低下，作为长期利率指标的新发行10年期国债收益率一度升至 1.775%，为2008年6月以来最高。 在东京外汇市场，自高市当选日本自民党总裁进而当选日本首相后，日元重新进入下降通道，不断走 软。近日，由于媒体纷纷报道日本政府拟推出大规模财政刺激计划，日元贬值势头再度加剧，日元对美 元汇率下探至1美元兑换155日元左右。（完） 新华社东京11月19日电（记者刘春燕）由于日本首相高市早苗力推积极财政政策并主张保持宽松货币政 策等多重因素，投资者对日本政府财政状况恶化的忧虑不断上升，日本金融市场连日来遭遇股债汇"三 杀"。 截至19日，东京股市两大股指连续4个交易日下跌，日经股指累计下跌2700多点。投资者担心高市早苗 日前发表的涉台严重错误言论导致日中关系持续恶化，不仅百货、运输、酒店等与入境消费关系密切的 行业股票大跌，一些倚重中国市场的公司股票也因业绩前景难料遭到投资者抛售。此外，由于纽约股市 近日频繁调整，三大股指多次全面下跌，日本股市很多投资者选择获利了结、离场观望。 责任编辑：刘万里 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a weak market consolidation, trading at 1.3130, down 0.11% from the previous day's close, with a narrow trading range of 1.3125-1.3150 [1] - The upcoming UK October CPI data is expected to significantly influence the Bank of England's future monetary policy path, as current UK economic data is in a phase of stagnation [1] - The fluctuations in the US dollar index are identified as a key variable affecting the short-term movements of the GBP, with ongoing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts impacting market expectations [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD has been trading within a narrow range of 1.3125-1.3160 for three consecutive days, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [2] - The primary resistance level is set at 1.3150, and a breakthrough could open up upward movement towards 1.3180, while support is focused on 1.3125, with a potential drop to 1.3100 if breached [2] - The daily chart indicates that the exchange rate is still in a correction phase following a previous rebound, with bearish momentum showing signs of weakening but not fully dissipated [2]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.114, UK 4.553, France 3.457, Germany 2.706, Italy 3.456, Spain 3.208, Switzerland 0.138, Greece 3.332, Japan 1.739, Brazil 6.245, China 1.805, Australia 4.441, New Zealand 4.150 [2] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.574, UK 3.795, Germany 2.017, Japan 0.918, Italy 2.214, China (1Y yield) 1.410, Australia 3.668 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.324, South Africa zar 17.185, South Korean won 1462.250, Thai baht 32.440, Malaysian ringgit 4.163 [2] - The latest values of on - shore RMB 7.109, off - shore RMB 7.111, RMB central parity rate 7.086, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.967 [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6617.320, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46091.740, NASDAQ 22432.850, Mexican stock index 61984.450, UK stock index 9552.300, French CAC 7967.930, German DAX 23180.530, Spanish stock index 15827.000, Japanese Nikkei 48702.980, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 25930.030, Shanghai Composite Index 3939.813, Taiwan stock index 26756.120, South Korean stock index 3953.620, Indian stock index 8361.926, Thai stock index 1270.040, Malaysian stock index 1614.060, Australian stock index 8738.270, emerging - economy stock index 1361.750 [2] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.631, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 406.730 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3939.81 (down 0.81%), CSI 300 closing price 4568.19 (down 0.65%), SSE 50 closing price 3003.02 (down 0.30%), ChiNext closing price 3069.22 (down 1.16%), CSI 500 closing price 7151.02 (down 1.17%) [3] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 14.06 (down 0.08), SSE 50 11.90 (down 0.03), CSI 500 32.57 (down 0.41), S&P 500 27.51 (down 0.23), German DAX 17.98 (down 0.32) [3] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.48 (up 0.06), German DAX 2.86 (up 0.11) [3] - Fund flow: Latest A - share fund flow - 1462.75, motherboard - 1190.40, ChiNext - 214.75, CSI 300 - 225.97; 5 - day average A - share fund flow - 712.73, motherboard - 585.51, ChiNext - 90.24, CSI 300 - 119.58 [3] - Transaction amount: Latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 19260.68 (up 152.77), CSI 300 4201.50 (down 187.90), SSE 50 1062.01 (down 56.04), SME board 4127.54 (up 19.72), ChiNext 5015.67 (up 149.23) [4] - Main contract basis: IF basis - 13.19 (down 0.29%), IH basis - 5.42 (down 0.18%), IC basis - 71.22 (down 1.00%) [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of treasury bond futures: T2303 108.50 (up 0.01%), TF2303 105.92 (up 0.01%), T2306 108.25 (up 0.01%), TF2306 105.89 (unchanged) [4] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.5711% (up 4.00 BP), R007 1.5294% (unchanged), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% (unchanged) [4]

Global Asset Market Performance - On November 17, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond yields of major economies varied, with the US at 4.140%, UK at 4.534%, etc. The latest changes, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also differed among countries. For example, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield had a latest change of - 0.009, a weekly change of 0.023, a monthly change of 0.159, and a yearly change of - 0.188 [3] - The 2 - year treasury bond yields also showed different trends. For instance, China (1Y) was 3.580% on November 17, 2025, with corresponding changes over different time periods [3] - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies had various changes. For example, against the South African zar, the latest change was 0.58%, and the yearly change was - 6.37% [3] - The performance of major economies' stock indices on November 17, 2025, showed declines in most cases. For example, the Dow Jones had a latest change of - 0.92%, and a weekly change of - 2.34% [3] - The credit bond indices of different types (emerging economies' investment - grade, high - yield, etc.) had different values and changes on November 17, 2025. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 3516.030, with a latest change of 0.05% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3972.03, 4598.05, 3012.07, 3105.20, and 7235.35 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 14.14, 11.93, 32.98, 27.74, and 18.30 respectively, with环比 changes [4] - The risk premiums and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.54 and 2.75 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04 and 0.07 [4] - The latest values and 5 - day average values of capital flows in A - shares, main boards, etc., showed different trends. For example, the latest value of A - share capital flow was - 543.55, and the 5 - day average was - 629.80 [4] - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were provided. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19107.91, with a环比 change of - 472.88 [4] - The basis and amplitude of the main contracts of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC) were - 16.65, - 2.87, - 91.95 and - 0.36%, - 0.10%, - 1.27% respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.485, 105.905, 108.240, 105.885 respectively, with no percentage changes [5] - The capital interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) were 1.5596%, 1.5321%, 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes (BP) of 7.00, 4.00, 0.00 [5]

多数人只想着迅速致富，不断尝试各种方式，承担更大风险获取利润并收回损失，却收效甚微。他们攀爬在风险阶梯上追求高 额回报，却不明白面临的风险和失败的原因。问题并非人们贪婪或愚蠢，而是许多金融"文盲"进入投资市场，他们从韭菜角度 而非投资市场角度思考，这是致命的断层。 不能期望经济改善或牛市消除金融难题，而要聚焦经过时间证明正确的投资事实和想法。就像在昂首资本这样的外汇平台投 资，更需遵循此道。即便有人认为人们能从亏钱中吸取教训，实则不然，亏损最多的人往往最着急收回损失。正如马克・泰博 斯基所说，有人投资亏损后会立刻跳回市场，因为他们觉得不赚钱的风险比亏掉剩余钱的风险大。投资者在投资中一定要有这 样一个原则，无论是选择外汇平台还是其他投资途径，先考虑不赔钱才能走向成功。 投资不是先想赚钱！先考虑不赔钱，这认知你该更新了！聪明的投资者永远先考虑如何不赔钱，这一原则在投资领域至关重 要，尤其对于选择昂首资本这类外汇平台的投资者来说。成功的投资者和市场上的其他人不同，他们的想法和行动违反直觉。 简单来讲，糟糕的投资者想的是如何赚钱，而成功的投资者想的是如何不赔钱。这是每个投资者都应知晓的原则，读懂它，才 有可能从投资市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable despite increased volatility in international financial markets, with a balanced supply and demand situation observed in October 2025 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In October, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was $17.7 billion, showing a narrowing trend compared to previous months, indicating a more balanced settlement and sales activity [1] - The settlement and sales rates for enterprises and other entities were consistent with the average levels from the first nine months of the year [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with a slight net outflow from non-bank sectors in September due to holiday factors, followed by an increase in net inflows in October [1] - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months was $24 billion, supported by high levels of net inflow from goods trade [1] - Seasonal declines were noted in cross-border expenditures related to resident travel abroad and foreign enterprise dividends, while the net outflow from service trade and investment income narrowed compared to previous months [1]