Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5077.85, with a change of 46.45 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 86.10, with a change of 3.82 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2120.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1733.00, with a change of 27.00 [1] - WTI Crude Oil's latest price is 63.96, with no change [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 13170.00, with a change of 94.00 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 96.87, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.19, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36, with no change [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 154.40, with no change [1] - The latest value of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.84, with no change [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 12014.43, with no change [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 342.10, with a change of 18.73 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1081.32, with a change of 2.00 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 16236.18, with a change of 19.73 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 504.96, with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 1.00 [2] - Another SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with no change [2]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures surging 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce [4]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil main contracts both increased, with U.S. crude rising 1.37% to $64.42 per barrel and Brent crude climbing 1.59% to $69.13 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all went up, with LME tin leading the gain, rising 6.63% to $49815.0 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results, with caustic soda rising over 2% and some other commodities also posting gains, while styrene and coking coal dropped over 1% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In January, China's futures market trading volume and turnover increased by 65.09% and 105.14% year - on - year respectively [8]. - As of February 9, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European Route) dropped 7.5% compared to the previous period [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce will take multiple measures in 2026 to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption [9]. - The U.S. White House official expects employment data to decline but not to cause panic [10]. - The U.S. Maritime Administration advised ships to avoid Iranian waters [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of February 9, 2026, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 11.42% [11]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and margin ratio for some contracts [13]. - The operating rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [13]. Metal Futures - As of February 9, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets increased by 2.2 tons [15]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate, platinum, and palladium futures contracts during the Spring Festival [15]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin ratio and price limit for some contracts [15]. - In Indonesia, some mines' RKAB were fully approved, and the price of far - month futures quotes increased [16]. - Due to production cuts by some enterprises, the output of polysilicon decreased in February and the inventory increased slightly [18]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that gold seemed to be in a typical speculative selling situation [19]. Black - Series Futures - From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, as well as the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil [21]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from February 2 to February 8, 2026 [21]. - Australian ports affected by the hurricane resumed operations [21]. - An Ansteel blast furnace will be under maintenance from February 25, affecting the daily iron - making output [22]. Agricultural Product Futures - In Argentina, the soybean sowing in the 2025/2026 season ended, but the crop growth and moisture conditions deteriorated [25]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume reached a near - record high, and is expected to decline during the Spring Festival [25]. - In Brazil, the soybean harvest area reached 16% of the expected area, and the second - season corn sowing area reached 22% [25]. - A U.S. exporter sold 26.4 tons of soybeans to China [26]. - India's palm oil demand is expected to rebound, but the competition from soybean oil will limit its growth [26]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased, and the proportion of exports to China increased [26]. 3. Financial Market Financial - On Monday, the A - share market rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.41%, and market turnover increasing [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market also closed higher, but the southbound capital sold nearly HK$1.9 billion [28]. - By the end of January 2026, the number of Chinese billion - dollar private equity managers reached a record high, and most of them achieved positive returns [28]. - A JPMorgan analyst said that if anti - involution is effective, the A - share market may have a "slow - bull" market in 2026 [29]. Industry - The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to promote automobile consumption [30]. - Market regulators introduced new regulations for liquid food transportation [32]. - Chongqing introduced real - estate policies, including housing purchase subsidies [32]. - A global humanoid robot fighting league was launched [32]. - The "companion occupation" emerged, but needs standardization [32]. - Goldman Sachs predicted a severe supply shortage in the global memory market from 2026 - 2027 [33]. - Memory prices increased by 80% - 90% in the first quarter of 2026 [33]. Overseas - The U.S. is reducing tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [34]. - There were political upheavals in the UK [36]. - The U.S. employment growth is expected to slow down [36]. - The U.S. Energy Secretary will visit Venezuela [36]. - The French central bank governor will step down early [36]. - The Japanese Prime Minister proposed food tax cuts [36]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stock indexes closed higher, led by technology stocks [37]. - European stock indexes also rose, supported by sector rotation [38]. - Japanese and South Korean stock indexes soared, driven by different factors [40]. - A short - selling institution apologized for a false accusation against an AppLovin shareholder [40]. Commodities - Multiple exchanges adjusted the price limit and margin ratio for futures contracts [41]. - Hong Kong plans to include precious metals in the preferential tax system for funds and family offices [42]. - International precious metals, crude oil, and base metals futures generally rose [44]. Bonds - The Chinese bond market continued to perform well, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [45]. - Japanese investors' bond - buying behavior changed in 2025 [45]. - Most U.S. Treasury yields declined [45]. Exchange Rates - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index fell [47]. 4. Upcoming Data and Events - There are multiple economic data releases scheduled in different countries, such as Japan's January M2, Singapore's Q4 2025 GDP, etc. [49] - There are also various events, including central bank operations, corporate earnings reports, and official speeches [49]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian stock markets continued their strong performance, led by Japan, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's election victory, which boosted investor confidence and led to significant gains in the Nikkei 225 index [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 57,000-point mark, rising by 2.64% to reach a new historical high [6]. - The Topix index also increased by 1.08%, setting a new record [2]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 1.21%, nearing its historical closing high [4][5]. - The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia gained 0.39%, aiming for a third consecutive day of increases [4][5]. Currency and Commodity Markets - The offshore RMB strengthened, breaking the 6.91 mark against the USD for the first time since May 2023, currently reported at 6.9094 [9]. - The US dollar index stabilized around 96.97 after a significant drop, which was the largest single-day decline in two weeks [7]. - Gold prices fell by 1% to $5,016.56 per ounce, while silver dropped by 2.5% to $81.31 per ounce [10]. - WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.1% to $64.15 per barrel [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar and the subsequent rise in gold prices, highlighting the market's concerns regarding the dollar's future and the impact of geopolitical events and monetary policy on asset prices [3][4]. Group 1: US Dollar Weakness - The US dollar index has fallen below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, influenced by the results of the Japanese parliamentary elections and reports of potential US Treasury asset sell-offs [3][4]. - The market sentiment is shifting towards a trend of "selling US assets," which is a significant concern for traders this year [4]. - Since President Trump took office, the dollar index has dropped over 10%, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, deteriorating fiscal credibility, and ongoing political risks [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Surge - Gold futures have rebounded strongly, surpassing the $5000 and $5100 levels, supported by the dollar's decline and increasing global uncertainty [6][7]. - Despite a significant drop in January, the prevailing view is that the sell-off in precious metals was more of a technical adjustment rather than a fundamental shift [7]. - Deutsche Bank analysts maintain a long-term gold price target of $6000 per ounce, citing strong demand from investors, particularly from China, as a key driver for precious metal investments [8]. - UBS has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of the year to $6200 per ounce, driven by stronger-than-expected demand primarily from investment rather than central bank purchases [8].

Group 1: Japanese Government and Central Bank Statements - The Japanese government, represented by Deputy Minister Atsushi Mimura, emphasizes a high level of urgency in monitoring market movements and maintaining close communication with the market [1][7] - Satsuki Katayama's remarks indicate a dual approach of reassuring the market while warning that Japan can take decisive actions, including intervention, if there are rapid fluctuations deviating from fundamentals [1][7] - A Bank of Japan board member, Masu Kazuyuki, asserts that further increases in the policy interest rate are necessary to complete the normalization of monetary policy, which may elevate market expectations for an earlier rate hike [2][8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The interest rate hikes are seen as essential to align Japan's monetary policy with that of other major economies, addressing the persistent weakness of the yen, which has been a core reason for rising import costs affecting businesses and households in Japan [2][8] - The yen's depreciation has been a significant factor in increasing operational costs for Japanese companies and impacting the living standards of residents [2][8] Group 3: Market Data and Trends - Attention is drawn to upcoming economic data, including the Eurozone's February Sentix Investor Confidence Index and the U.S. January Conference Board Employment Trends Index [3][8] - Gold prices rebounded significantly, trading around 5030, supported by short covering and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, alongside heightened risk aversion due to U.S.-Iran tensions [4][9] - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains amid concerns over Japanese political uncertainty, with current trading around 156.50, while the USD/CAD pair declined to 1.3650 due to profit-taking and a weaker dollar index [5][11]

Core Insights - The recent cooling signals in the U.S. job market may lead to significant volatility in the foreign exchange and bond markets if the January non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations [1] Group 1 - GivTrade strategist Hassan Fawaz highlights the potential impact of U.S. employment data on market volatility [1]

Core Insights - The recent cooling signals in the U.S. labor market may lead to significant volatility in the foreign exchange and bond markets if the January non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations [1] - A weaker-than-expected data release could reignite concerns about labor market momentum and strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing later this year, which would likely pressure the U.S. dollar [1] - Conversely, strong data performance could challenge these expectations, providing support for the dollar and pushing up yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations with low volatility, and the trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, particularly around the key level of the US dollar index at 97.496, indicating a lack of clear directional signals [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is engaged in a range-bound trading pattern, with both bulls and bears contesting around the 97-98 range, showing signs of reduced momentum [1]. - Major non-USD currencies are performing steadily without clear direction, with the British pound closing at 1.3614 against the dollar and the dollar-yen pair trading around 156.5600 [1]. Group 2: Key Data and Events - Important upcoming data includes Japan's December trade balance, Switzerland's January consumer confidence index, and the Eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index, which are expected to impact currency movements based on deviations from forecasts [1]. - The ASEAN finance ministers and central bank deputies' working group meeting is taking place, which may influence Southeast Asian currencies and global market sentiment through policy statements and cooperation developments [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index is in a consolidation phase, with a downward channel formed since January 19, and currently holding above the 5-day moving average at 97.52 while facing resistance from the 10-day moving average at 97.89 [1]. - The euro against the dollar shows a bullish trend with key support levels at 1.1750-1.1765, and a potential upward movement towards 1.1900-1.1920 if it breaks above 1.1835 [2]. - The British pound against the dollar is in a state of indecision with increasing divergence between bulls and bears, and a need for clear signals to determine the next direction [3]. - The dollar-yen pair maintains a strong upward structure with key support levels at 156.30-156.50, and a potential breakout above 157.00 could open further upward movement [3]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The Middle East situation is tense with escalating US-Iran confrontations, which could lead to volatility in energy and safe-haven assets [4]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting new sanctions from the EU and discussions for peace talks, impacting energy prices and currency valuations [4]. - Japan's recent election results may influence the yen's value and stock pricing, as the ruling party plans to lower consumption tax [4]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Michigan University consumer confidence index has shown improvement, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to a 13-month low, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data releases are anticipated to influence market sentiment and asset pricing [6].

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.208, UK 4.514, France 3.446, Germany 2.841, Italy 3.466, Spain 3.220, Switzerland 0.243, Greece 3.454, Japan 2.222, Brazil 6.169, China 1.806, South Korea 3.697, Australia 4.826, New Zealand 4.535 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.500, UK 3.617, Germany 2.082, Japan 1.275, Italy 2.231, China (1Y yield) 1.308, South Korea 3.009, Australia 4.254 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.219, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.031, Korean won 1463.650, Thai baht 31.647, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates related to the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.936, off - shore RMB 6.930, RMB central parity rate 6.959, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.797 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6932.300, Dow Jones Industrial Index 50115.670, Nasdaq 23031.210, Mexican stock index 70809.570, UK stock index 10369.750, France CAC 8273.840, Germany DAX 24721.460, Spanish stock index 17943.300, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 54253.680, Hang Seng Index 26559.950, Shanghai Composite Index 4065.583, Taiwan stock index 31782.920, South Korean stock index 5089.140, Indian stock index 7935.260, Thai stock index 1354.010, Malaysian stock index 1732.830, Australian stock index 8954.613, emerging - economy stock index 1506.380 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3560.630, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.879, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.940, US high - yield credit - bond index 2932.470, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.420, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1848.064 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4065.58 (down 0.25%), CSI 300 closing price 4643.60 (down 0.57%), SSE 50 closing price 3037.86 (down 0.69%), ChiNext closing price 3236.46 (down 0.73%), CSI 500 closing price 8146.41 (unchanged) [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.04 (down 0.04), SSE 50 11.59 (down 0.05), CSI 500 36.90 (down 0.02), S&P 500 27.68 (up 0.53), Germany DAX 19.18 (up 0.18) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.60 (down 0.10), Germany DAX 2.37 (down 0.05) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value 202.42, main - board latest value 114.74, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext latest value 71.02, CSI 300 latest value - 34.69; A - share 5 - day average - 272.73, main - board 5 - day average - 179.44, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext 5 - day average - 60.47, CSI 300 5 - day average - 37.58 [4] - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 21457.19 (down 305.01), CSI 300 latest value 5057.60 (down 446.73), SSE 50 latest value 1336.06 (down 143.91), small - cap board latest value 4650.31 (up 273.12), ChiNext latest value 5607.18 (up 84.29) [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis - 6.00 (spread - 0.13%), IH basis - 1.66 (spread - 0.05%), IC basis - 29.01 (spread - 0.36%) [5] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures closing prices: T2303 108.42 (up 0.09%), TF2303 105.95 (up 0.03%), T2306 108.44 (up 0.10%), TF2306 106.02 (up 0.07%) [5] - Fund rates: R001 1.3605% (down 19.00 BP), R007 1.5288% (down 2.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% (unchanged) [5]

已处于3.3万亿美元以上相对偏高水平 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析，1月份，受多重因素叠加影响，美元延续弱势：一是特朗普在委内瑞拉、伊朗、格陵兰岛等多地开展或威胁军事打 击，加剧了地缘政治风险，美元信用风险高企；二是特朗普暗示对美元贬值持开放态度，引发市场抛售潮。美联储委员释放鹰派信号，加之沃什当选美联 储主席的预期发酵，美债震荡上行，全球资产价格整体上涨。 温彬指出，受资产价格变化与汇率波动综合影响，1月末外储环比上涨412亿美元至33991亿美元。汇率方面，1月份，美元指数下跌1.2%至97.1，月中一度 跌至四年来低点95附近。非美货币齐涨，日元、欧元、英镑兑美元分别上涨1.23%、0.9%、1.6%。资产价格方面，十年期美国国债收益率上涨8个基点至 4.26%。全球股市整体震荡偏强，标普500指数环比上涨1.4%，欧洲斯托克指数上涨3.4%，东京日经指数上涨5.9%。 每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜段炼 张益铭 2月7日，国家外汇管理局披露，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，1月末外储规 ...