1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance 10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.291, 4.625, 3.408 respectively. The latest changes were 0.004, 0.061, 0.053; the one - week changes were 0.079, 0.110, 0.124; the one - month changes were - 0.192, 0.001, 0.003; the one - year changes were 0.500, 0.798, 0.443 [3]. - For Asian countries like Japan, China, and South Korea, on August 12, 2025, the yields were 3.732, 1.730, - respectively. The latest changes were - 0.037, 0.013, -; the one - week changes were 0.007, 0.027, -; the one - month changes were - 0.210, 0.072, -; the one - year changes were - 0.150, - 0.400, - [3]. 2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 12, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.760, 3.880, 1.965 respectively. The latest changes were 0.040, 0.021, 0.004; the one - week changes were 0.070, 0.060, 0.060; the one - month changes were - 0.150, 0.050, 0.084; the one - year changes were - 0.530, 0.291, - 0.380 [3]. - For other countries such as Japan, Italy, and China (1Y), on August 12, 2025, the yields were 0.767, 2.205, 1.362 respectively. The latest changes were 0.009, 0.000, - 0.001; the one - week changes were 0.018, 0.063, - 0.008; the one - month changes were - 0.008, 0.123, - 0.001; the one - year changes were 0.369, - 0.673, - 0.036 [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On August 12, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real, South African rand, and South Korean won exchange rates were 5.389, 17.593, 1383.950 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.99%, - 0.92%, - 0.50%; the one - week changes were - 2.16%, - 1.81%, - 0.18%; the one - month changes were - 3.02%, - 1.86%, - 0.26%; the one - year changes were - 5.92%, - 3.68%, 1.68% [3]. - For the on - shore and off - shore RMB, on August 12, 2025, the exchange rates were 7.181 and 7.185 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.10%, - 0.16%; the one - week changes were - 0.04%, - 0.06%; the one - month changes were - 0.02%, 0.01%; the one - year changes were 0.13%, 0.29% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - On August 12, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6445.760, 44458.610, 21681.900 respectively. The latest changes were 1.13%, 1.10%, 1.39%; the one - week changes were 2.33%, 0.79%, 3.66%; the one - month changes were 3.24%, 0.99%, 4.86%; the one - year changes were 20.56%, 11.88%, 29.24% [3]. - For Asian indices such as the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index, on August 12, 2025, they were 42718.170, 24969.680, 3665.918 respectively. The latest changes were -, 0.25%, 0.50%; the one - week changes were 5.35%, 0.27%, 1.34%; the one - month changes were 7.66%, 1.54%, 4.59%; the one - year changes were 18.96%, 47.35%, 26.18% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, and emerging - market investment - grade credit bond index were 0.02%, - 0.12%, 0.04% respectively; the one - week changes were - 0.21%, - 0.27%, 0.11%; the one - month changes were 1.82%, 0.17%, 1.59%; the one - year changes were 3.93%, 4.35%, 5.44% [3][4]. - The latest changes of the US high - yield credit bond index, euro - zone high - yield credit bond index, and emerging - market high - yield credit bond index were 0.09%, 0.05%, 0.22% respectively; the one - week changes were 0.19%, 0.23%, 0.67%; the one - month changes were 0.90%, 0.86%, 2.44%; the one - year changes were 9.41%, 8.45%, 15.18% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3665.92, 4143.83, 2807.01 respectively, with daily changes of 0.50%, 0.52%, 0.61% [5]. - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.39, 11.52, 30.93 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.09, 0.09, 0.11 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values of A - share, main - board, and SME - board fund flows were - 605.19, - 420.84, - respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 317.74, - 237.07, - respectively [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 18815.20, 3830.88, 1096.88 respectively, with环比 changes of 545.47, 224.02, 193.54 respectively [5]. Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 12.63, 2.59, - 75.56 respectively, with spreads of - 0.30%, 0.09%, - 1.18% respectively [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.420, 105.715, 108.305, 105.725 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.13%, - 0.10%, - 0.13%, - 0.11% respectively [6]. - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3486%, 1.4619%, 1.5480% respectively, with daily changes of - 10.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [6]

周三（8月13日）亚市早盘，现货黄金持稳交投于3350美元附近，隔夜CPI数据公布后，美元指数急速 下挫，重回98关口附近，最终收跌，交易员加大了对美联储在9月降息的押注，黄金日线报收一根小十 字星。 【要闻速递】 美元指数因周二（8月12日）通胀数据公布而走低至近两周低位，该数据基本符合市场预期，且关税成 本仍被静默消化在企业利润率中，并未转嫁给消费者。这为美联储应对疲软的就业数据提供了政策空 间，很可能从9月开始启动降息。当前市场正押注这一预期，关于年内还将降息两次的猜测也持续升 温。特朗普在社交媒体上对鲍威尔的持续抨击亦对美元形成利空，进一步加剧了美元汇率的看跌预期。 【技术分析】 上一交易日周二(8月12日)现货黄金震荡收涨，收取止跌形态，虽未收线在中轨上方，但也暗示后市下 方空间有限，如黄金价格进一步走低，100日均线支撑位置，也是可以再度入场看涨，如今日收线在5日 均线上方，则会加大看涨动力，黄金行情继续等待再度测试3440美元附近阻力压制。 日图来看，金价昨日在回落低位收取震荡十字止跌形态，暗示后市有反弹回升转强的倾向，但需今日金 价反弹重回5日均线上方收线才能验证止跌形态有效，反之将仍偏弱震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are in a risk - on state this week, but the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences. China's exports in July showed good performance, but there are risks of decline and restricted re - export trade in the future. For major assets, a defensive layout should be maintained, focusing on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. - For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities, maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas market is in a risk - on state this week under the background of weak US economic fundamentals and intensified tariff threats. The inflection point of the pre - released concentrated overseas demand is approaching, and the economic fundamentals will test the sustainability of market sentiment. The personnel changes in the Fed and the US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest rate cuts and risk preferences [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - **Asset Views**: For domestic assets, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. For overseas assets, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations, maintain the allocation of US bonds, slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from a weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the event is settled, the capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. Considering Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, they are expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. Considering factors such as the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production slightly decreases, and port inventory slightly accumulates. Considering policy - level dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coke**: Five rounds of price increases have been implemented, and coke - enterprise production has recovered. Considering steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Production has decreased due to coal - mine disturbances, and the market is strengthening after sentiment improvement. Considering steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is sentiment - driven, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. Considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market is sentiment - driven, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering cost prices and overseas quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Glass**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and rigid demand is relatively stable. Considering spot sales, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse - receipt pressure is emerging, and production is still recovering. Considering soda - ash inventory, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The risk of overseas recession is rising, and copper prices are under pressure. Considering supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are increasing again, and alumina prices are under pressure. Considering factors such as less - than - expected ore resumption and more - than - expected electrolytic - aluminum resumption, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and aluminum prices are rising. Considering macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black - metal sector have rebounded again, and zinc prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc - ore supply, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lead**: Supply of recycled lead is disturbed, and lead prices are slightly rebounding. Considering supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory is high, and nickel prices are fluctuating widely. Considering unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel - iron is rising continuously, and the stainless - steel market is rising in a volatile manner. Considering Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and tin prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are moving in a volatile manner. Considering more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and lithium carbonate is moving in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns are easing, but supply pressure still exists. Considering OPEC + production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **LPG**: Supported by chemical demand, the cracking spread has stabilized. Considering the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Asphalt**: It has broken through the important support level of 3500, and the futures price is moving in the direction of least resistance. Considering more - than - expected demand, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is following crude oil and fluctuating weakly. Considering crude - oil and natural - gas prices, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10]. - **Methanol**: Supported by coal but suppressed by olefins, it is moving in a volatile manner. Considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Considering export - policy trends and the elimination of production capacity, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal is strong and oil is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Considering frequent changes in overseas devices affecting port arrivals, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PX**: Subject to planned maintenance, it cannot boost processing fees, and the price is still under cost pressure. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and more - than - expected PTA device maintenance, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PTA**: Subject to cost constraints, it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Considering wide - range cost fluctuations, unexpected device maintenance, and more - than - expected polyester load reduction, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand has improved slightly. Considering the purchasing rhythm and operating conditions of downstream spinning mills, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: Overall demand is sluggish, and the height of processing - fee repair is limited. Considering more - than - expected production increase by bottle - chip enterprises and a sharp increase in overseas export orders, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PP**: Fundamental support is limited, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Plastic**: Inventory is accumulating in the upstream and mid - stream, and it is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost, the market is moving in a volatile manner. Considering expectations, cost, and supply, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has stabilized, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner for the time being. Considering market sentiment, production, and demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is positive, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. Considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The trading volume of far - month basis contracts has increased, and the market is worried about the supply gap in the fourth quarter. Considering US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. 3.3 Agriculture - **Corn/Starch**: The market continues to move weakly in a volatile manner. Considering less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Rubber**: Supported by strong raw - material prices, rubber prices are rising in a volatile manner. Considering plantation weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by tight raw - material supply, the market is rising. Considering significant fluctuations in crude oil, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is running stably. Considering macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, cotton prices are rising. Considering marginal changes in demand, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening. Considering imports, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Logs**: Logs are fluctuating within a narrow range. Considering shipment volume and transportation volume, it is expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

| uil am be i n | | --- | | and and a comprehens and secure of the proper SUURLE PULL | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/12 | | --- | | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/08/11 | 4.287 | 4.564 | 3.355 | 2.695 | 3.484 | 3.258 | 0.232 | 3.340 | | 最新变化 | 0.003 | -0.036 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.008 | 0.004 | -0.008 | 0.013 | | 一周变化 | 0.093 | 0.056 | 0.072 | 0.072 | 0.058 | 0.059 | -0.045 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].

汇率波动与你我的钱包：一场无形的"价格游戏" 8月8日主要货币汇率一览：全球货币的动态 当日公布的人民币汇率中间价显示：美元兑人民币为1:7.1345；欧元为1:8.3291；英镑则相对较高，为1:9.5460；港币为1:0.90895；澳元为1:4.6455；新西兰 元为1:4.2394；新加坡元为1:5.5610；瑞士法郎为1:8.8630；而人民币兑韩元则为1:193.53。这些数字背后，反映着全球经济的动态变化。 汇率变化的实际影响：以美元为例 假设你需要兑换1000美元。按照8月8日的汇率，你需要支付7134.5元人民币。但如果美元汇率上涨至7.20，则需要支付7200元，差价高达65.5元。虽然对个 人而言，这笔差价看似微不足道，但对于企业而言，兑换100万美元的差价将达到数万元。 你是否注意到，今天美元又涨至7块多，欧元更是超过8块？这并非仅仅是金融新闻中的数字游戏，它与我们的日常生活息息相关。无论是出国旅游、海外购 物，还是外贸生意，甚至日常消费，汇率的涨跌都潜移默化地影响着我们的钱包。让我们以8月8日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为例，深入探讨汇率背 后的玄机。 汇率影响着我们的生活：细致入 ...

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on August 1, 2025, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6] Global Bond Market 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - In major economies on August 1, 2025, the US was at 4.218%, the UK at 4.526%, France at 3.346%, etc. There were various changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was -0.172, and the one - year change was -0.067 [3] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - Yields and their changes are presented for different countries. For instance, China (1Y) was at 3.940 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of 0.080 [3] Exchange Rate Market Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 1, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.542, with a latest change of -1.04%. There were also changes in weekly, monthly, and yearly periods [3] RMB Exchange Rates - The on - shore RMB was at 7.193, the offshore RMB at 7.194, etc. on August 1, 2025, with different changes in different time frames [3] Global Stock Index Market Major Economies' Stock Indices - As of August 1, 2025, the Dow Jones was at 6238.010, the S&P 500 at 43588.580, etc. There were different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the latest change in the Dow Jones was -1.60%, and the one - year change was 14.94% [3] Other Stock Indices - The report also includes data on the Russian, Japanese, and other countries' stock indices, such as the Nikkei at 40799.600 on August 1, 2025, with a latest change of -0.66% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3559.95 with a -0.37% change [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.12 with a -0.07环比 change [5] Risk Premium - The risk premium and its环比 changes are presented for some indices. For example, the 1/PE - 10 rate of the S&P 500 was -0.44 with a 0.22环比 change [5] Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. are shown. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was -522.29 [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. are provided. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15983.51 with a -3376.84环比 change [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis and basis ratio of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was -25.33 with a -0.62% basis ratio [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.435 with a 0.17% change [6] - The money market shows the R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M rates and their daily changes in basis points [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report continues the previous analytical framework of "USD - mid - price - spot price" to judge the direction and rhythm of the USD/CNY exchange rate. With the "steep cooling" of the non - farm payrolls data, the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY will have increased volatility and a slowdown in appreciation expectations. Whether the 7.20 level is "effectively broken" depends on the policy signals from the mid - price. Currently, the mid - price of USD/CNY shows a clear "stabilizing" orientation. In the context of sufficient policy tools and reduced external pressure, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD in the short term, with a short - term trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [1][14]. - The report is cautious about the view that the US economy can withstand the impact of tariffs. The seemingly strong US economic data are just short - term fluctuations, and problems such as slow domestic demand growth, persistent inflation pressure, and weak investment activities remain unsolved. The July non - farm payrolls report indicates that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability and transparency of official employment data are declining [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of 16:30 on August 1, the US Dollar Index continued to appreciate compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, Japanese Yen, Euro, and British Pound all remained under pressure against the US Dollar [3]. - Market quotes for various exchange rates are provided, including the USD/CNY mid - price, spot rates, and cross - exchange rates. For example, the USD/CNY mid - price increased by 0.108%, the USD/CNY spot rate rose by 0.596%, and the USD/CNH spot rate increased by 0.736% [4]. 3.2 USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate Weekly Review - Last week, the US Dollar Index continued to rebound, supported by the market's selling pressure on the Euro due to the agreement between the US and Europe and overall positive economic data. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate also rose steadily. However, the weak non - farm payrolls data on Friday caused a significant drop in the US Dollar Index [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The report is skeptical about the view that the US economy can resist tariff impacts. The seemingly good economic data are short - term fluctuations, and underlying problems in the US economy persist. The July non - farm payrolls report is a key evidence. It shows that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability of official employment data is decreasing [10][12][13]. - The report continues the previous analytical framework. With the poor non - farm payrolls data, the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will increase, and the appreciation expectation will slow down. The 7.20 level's "effective breakthrough" depends on the mid - price policy signals. In the short term, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD, with a trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [14]. 3.4 RMB Market Observation 3.4.1 Policy Tools Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the mid - price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1496, depreciating 77 basis points from the previous Friday [16]. 3.4.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In June 2025, banks settled 14900 billion RMB and sold 13083 billion RMB. From January to June 2025, cumulative settlements were 82135 billion RMB, and cumulative sales were 83950 billion RMB. In US dollars, June settlements were 2077 billion, and sales were 1823 billion. From January to June, cumulative settlements were 11432 billion, and cumulative sales were 11685 billion. Bank - customer foreign - related income and payments data are also provided [18]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between the off - shore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight increase in overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB against the USD [24]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH was 7.0269, up from the previous Friday. Most risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed a slight increase in the market's depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [26]. 3.4.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [30][31]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [33][35]. 3.5 Key Data and Events 3.5.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. The national childcare subsidy system was announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year. In June 2025, China had a trade surplus of 701 billion US dollars in goods and services. In 2024, the "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7%. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3% [39][40]. - **US**: The US Treasury increased the borrowing estimate to 1 trillion US dollars this quarter. The June goods trade deficit narrowed by 10.8%. The second - quarter GDP grew by 3% annually. The July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The US will resume "reciprocal tariffs" [41][42]. - **UK**: No key events were reported. - **Eurozone**: Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement was determined, details remained to be negotiated. The second - quarter GDP grew by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter and 1.4% year - on - year. Germany and Italy's economies contracted in the second quarter [43]. - **Japan**: No key events were reported. - **Other**: Australia's second - quarter CPI rose by 2.1% year - on - year. The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 2.75% [44][45]. 3.5.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Statements - **People's Bank of China**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange monitoring and management [45][46]. - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Trump made a series of tariff - related announcements. Fed理事Kugler will leave office early. New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [48][50]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the 2025 core CPI forecast [51]. - **European Central Bank**: ECB hawkish official Kazimir said the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [52]. - **Bank of England**: No statements were reported. - **Other**: The Bank of Korea's meeting minutes showed that most members considered further interest - rate cuts, and the bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% [54]. 3.5.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - A list of key data and events for this week is provided, including US Treasury bill auction rates, Eurozone PPI, US trade data, and China's CPI and PPI [55]. 3.6 International Related Quotes 3.6.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Quotes - Charts of exchange rates such as the US Dollar Index, Euro/USD, USD/KRW, and others are provided [58][60]. 3.6.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts of assets including the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), Brent crude oil, London gold, and others are provided [80][81][83]. 3.6.3 Liquidity - Charts of central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are provided [90][91][92]. 3.6.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts of Sino - US interest rate spreads at different tenors, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields are provided [94][95]. 3.6.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - A chart of the three major RMB exchange rate indices is provided [97].

Core Insights - China's cross-border travel revenue increased by 42% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The service trade revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with cross-border travel being a significant contributor [1] - The service trade deficit decreased by 14% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing gap between service trade income and expenditure [1] Economic Performance - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations [1] - The current account has been stable, with an increase in the international competitiveness of productive service trades such as computer information services and business services [1] - The overall balance of international payments is expected to remain stable due to ongoing economic structural optimization and financial market opening [1]