Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a significant increase, rising by 0.93% to 144.99 JPY following the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report, breaking out of a narrow trading range earlier in the day [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The USD/JPY rose to 144.99 JPY, with a daily trading range of 143.45 to 145.23 JPY [1] - The currency pair surged from around 143.80 JPY to above 145 JPY after the employment report was released [1]

www.monetamarkets.com FOREN | INCES | CONNECTITIES | SHIRE CHINE CHINE CHILI Moneta外汇认为，尽管美国劳动力市场过去一年来展现出强劲韧性，但最新市场预期显示，就业增长正面临逐步降温的局面。6月份的非农就业报告即将出 炉，投资者普遍预计新增岗位将有所减少，而失业率可能升至4.3%，创下三年半以来的新高。 R KETA A MONETA i FORE PO H 2:10: RUITD Xtreme Next Ba (@Alti-Asset MONETA A 4 MONETA AN HN 图库提体系 版上最美的图像 Tool, 冲刺激的航空部落 无需交易经营 门槛上手 保局 - 美元静可加入 82 89,00 名世界级信号游,按偶年度交易策略 全面明散据十分流模式，收益看得见统,更安心 般时提交 / 取消订单,自由掌控交易 同时跟单多个糖味,打造多元化投资组合 分散风险,资金配置更安心! 理在就下载 MM APP 发射鼻手邪起, 板松学理交易电热! 日 Moneta外汇表示，从结构来看，这种放缓主要反映出企业在当前经济政策背景下对未来 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market shows fluctuations in the RMB exchange rates against various currencies, indicating a mixed trend in currency valuation as of July 3, 2025 [1]. Currency Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1523, reflecting a depreciation of the USD by 23 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.4463, showing an increase of 12 points [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91114, down by 3.2 points [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is at 9.7696, down by 664 points, indicating a significant depreciation of the GBP against the RMB [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.7119, up by 22 points [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.2684, up by 234 points, suggesting a strong performance of the CAD [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.9861, down by 44 points [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 11.0230, up by 647 points, indicating a strong appreciation of the RMB against the RUB [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.3591, down by 83 points [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.59029, up by 37.7 points [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is at 9.0408, down by 86 points [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.6229, down by 1 point [1]

周三（7月2日）汇市简况：欧元兑美元（EUR/USD）中断了始于6月18日的连涨势头，周三欧洲交易时 段在1.1800附近波动；英镑兑美元（GBP/USD）连续第四个交易日上涨，周四欧洲交易时段在1.3700上 方交投；美元兑日元（USD/JPY）周三早间守住隔夜反弹成果，在143.50附近波动；澳元兑美元 （AUD/USD）在周二触及的年内高点0.6590下方维持区间震荡；纽元兑美元（NZD/USD）在0.6050附 近呈积极态势；美元兑加元（USD/CAD）在1.3650附近的极窄区间内波动。日内晚间关注20:15美国6月 ADP就业人数。 今日汇市要闻盘点： 美元： 1.鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否过早不排除任何一次会议。 2.特朗普：不考虑延长关税谈判最后期限可能提高日本关税。 5.美国财政部长贝森特：相信美联储会在秋季之前降息，但最迟在9月份肯定会降息。 6.特朗普税收法案在参议院通过。美国众议院定于当地时间周三就法案进行辩论并投票。 主要非美货币： 1.日本央行行长植田和男：当前利率低于中性水平。任何加息措施都将取决于通胀动态的三个要素。 2.欧洲央行行长拉加德：并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到。必 ...

上半年美元指数跌破九十七，在主要货币中录得近五十年来最差开局，市场对贸易摩擦、财政赤字和经 济放缓的忧虑层层叠加，让看空美元成为"共识"。然而就在悲观氛围最浓时，两条消息为这只疲惫的绿 背注入了新的变数：美国劳工部的职位空缺意外猛增，显示劳动力需求仍具韧性；参议院强行通过规模 空前的减税与支出法案，巨额财政扩张令长端收益率迅速抬头。美元兑日元与瑞郎在数据公布后一度收 复近半跌幅，投资者开始重新评估"美元过度下行"的风险。 债务压力固然为美元蒙上阴影，但从交易结构看，年初以来做空仓位已堆积至极值。财政法案一旦在众 议院闯关成功，市场将迅速把注意力从赤字本身，转向短期需求刺激与企业盈利提振。届时美债供给虽 增，但若经济预期同步上修，实质利差仍可能上行，对美元构成阶段性托底。与此同时，美联储主席鲍 威尔虽坚持观望，却并未排除年内再度降息，灵活表态既维持了政策独立，也给数据向好时的"鹰派转 身"留足空间。这种政策空间的不确定，反而帮助美元在多头和空头之间建立新的平衡区。 具体到货币对，美元兑日元在143附近徘徊，日本央行行长植田和男强调"需要更多通胀数据"后，日元 缺乏加息催化，静待美日长端利差重新扩阔。瑞郎则因避险 ...

当前外汇市场正处于关键数据密集发布和重要政策事件前夕。 美元走势受制于美联储的数据依赖立场与近期强劲数据之间的矛盾，以及迫近的贸易关税风险。欧元区 和英国的政策信号相对有限，市场焦点转向各自的经济数据和政治动态。 整体而言，市场对美国就业数据的反应将是短期内决定汇率走向的核心催化剂。 1. 美元：数据博弈与关税阴影 美联储主席鲍威尔在辛特拉会议上重申了其严格的数据依赖立场，并未排除7月降息的可能性，这使得 即将公布的就业和通胀数据对美元至关重要。 然而，昨天公布的5月JOLTS数据（职位空缺、辞职增加，裁员减少）和ISM制造业指数（意外上 行，"支付价格"反弹）均指向劳动力市场韧性和潜在通胀压力，与市场普遍预期的鸽派情景相悖。 这些数据虽然非决定性，但削弱了美联储立即降息的理由。我们认为市场可能过度消化了鸽派预期，随 着通胀数据可能回升，美元有望获得支撑。 财政方面，美国参议院通过的债务法案预计将增加巨额债务，但国债市场反应平淡，显示出市场对美联 储提前宽松的预期仍在缓冲其影响。 然而，若通胀超预期上行，长期债券可能面临滞后压力。 短期内，今天的ADP就业数据和明天的非农就业数据是关键。 尽管ADP并非完美预 ...

Market Overview - The financial markets experienced significant volatility in the first half of the year due to rapidly changing trade dynamics under President Trump, concerns over a potential economic recession, and worries about the expanding deficit threatening the U.S. safe-haven status [1] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar recorded its longest monthly decline since 2017 in June, with a year-to-date drop of approximately 10.8%, marking the worst first half since 1973 [3] - The euro appreciated by about 3.8% in June, with a cumulative increase of 13.8% in the first half, driven by concerns over tariffs impacting the economy and a weaker dollar [6] - The British pound saw a nearly 10% increase against the dollar in the first half, supported by a pause in interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and improving economic outlook [6] Gold Market - Gold prices rose by 25.8% in the first half of the year, with gold ETFs increasing by 25.9%, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes boosting safe-haven demand [7] - Silver prices also surged, with a 24.9% increase in the first half, supported by both safe-haven and industrial demand [7] Oil Market - Crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall decline of about 9.6% in the first half, impacted by trade tensions and oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [9] - In June, oil prices briefly spiked to $80 due to tensions in the Middle East but quickly retreated as the situation stabilized [9] Equity Market - By the end of June, U.S. stock markets reached historical highs, driven by expectations of a trade agreement and renewed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [11] - The S&P 500 index surpassed the 6200-point mark, reflecting a 25% increase from its April low, primarily fueled by strong performance in technology stocks [11] Market Resilience - Despite geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainties, the market demonstrated remarkable adaptability and resilience, attributed to stable economic and profit conditions [13] - Investors are advised to maintain diversified portfolios to navigate the high uncertainty period ahead of the upcoming earnings season [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas asset management institutions and pension funds are accelerating the construction of a firewall against a weakening dollar to mitigate the dual impact of exchange rate fluctuations on U.S. stock portfolios [1] - The traditional logic that "when U.S. stocks fall, the dollar strengthens to provide a buffer" has been challenged, particularly after the dollar index dropped 6.5% to a three-year low due to the Trump administration's global tariff policy [1] - Russell Investments revealed that about 10% of asset portfolios among pension clients in Europe and the UK have increased their hedging ratio for international stock investments, with some aggressive investors raising their risk coverage from 50% to 75% [1] Group 2 - BNP Paribas Asset Management is systematically reducing its dollar exposure by selling dollars through both equity and fixed income portfolios while building long positions in euros, yen, and Australian dollars [2] - Different institutions have varying judgments on dollar valuation; for instance, St. James's Place Capital has maintained its GBP hedging cap while reducing dollar hedging, believing the current dollar exchange rate is close to its long-term fair value [2] - The increase in hedging demand is driven by the widening cracks in asset risk correlation, as noted by Northern Trust's global currency management head [2] Group 3 - Data shows that the euro-hedged version of the MSCI U.S. Index achieved zero returns over the past 12 months, while the unhedged version plummeted by 8.3%, coinciding with a 13% drop in the dollar against the euro [3] - The volume of dollar forward contract sales has reached a four-year high, indicating that investors are opting to "vote with their feet" despite potential dollar rebounds from tariff policy fluctuations or geopolitical conflicts [3] - Asset managers are using foreign exchange derivatives as a core weapon in this currency defense strategy, employing forward contracts and options to build risk barriers against dollar depreciation [3]

俗话说，酒香不怕巷子深，但这句话放在外汇零售行业不一定对。据外汇天眼监测的数据，大大小小的外汇交易商接近7万家，在白热化的竞争中不少平 台为了揽客在交易环境、客服支持、资金通道上做得出类拔萃，但无奈还是生意惨淡。究其原因，还是没有一块好的金字招牌。 外汇天眼官网"上市信息"显示，嘉伍佰分别在全球最大的金融中心伦敦证券交易所上市；另外，欧盟金融中心法兰克福也有嘉伍佰的上市股票。能同时登 陆两大顶级证券交易所，暗示着嘉伍佰这个品牌自身实力不俗。 | WikiEX EPP (0) 什么是WikiFX > | HIT = 10/4/9 | | 请输入交易商各称进行查询 | 搜索 | | 42 ● 简体中文 ◆ 下载WikiFX | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营顾 交易商 | SkyLine ! Form For | 排行榜 监管机构 | VPS ~ | 第二十 | 社区 | = 曝光 ▼ 蛋開 > | | | | | | | | CLASS MENT PENSIONAL THE VILLED. | | | | 监管信息 | | × | | | | ■ ...

当前全球金融市场的主旋律无疑是围绕着美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）的货币政策预期展开的。特别是 外汇市场，正经历着一场由"降息热潮"所主导的显著波动。 市场参与者似乎已经完全沉浸在对美联储即将放松货币政策的预期之中，其激进程度甚至超越了美联储 官员公开表达的谨慎立场。 期货市场对九月降息的完全定价以及对七月降息的显著概率赋予，反映了一种强烈的信念：即美联储将 很快屈服于某种压力（无论是经济数据的恶化还是潜在的政治考量），转向宽松。 这种激进的降息预期直接导致了美元在本周初的疲软。 美元作为全球储备货币和避险资产，其价值与美国的利率水平和经济前景紧密相关。当市场预期利率将 下降时，持有美元的吸引力随之减弱，资金倾向于流向收益率更高或增长前景更好的资产。 德国通胀的温和上升提示了欧元区内部可能存在的通胀压力，这可能使欧洲央行（ECB）在考虑降息时 更加谨慎。欧洲央行目前维持的"坐视不理"立场，与市场对美联储的激进预期形成对比，这限制了欧元 自身上涨的动力。 2 年期掉期利差的收窄虽然提供了技术性支撑，但欧元/美元的长期走势仍将主要取决于美元的走向以 及市场对美联储政策的重新定价。 与外汇市场的"降息热潮"形成鲜明对 ...