记者丨 郑康喜 编辑丨蒋韵 700多万元人民币的订单，如何在广交会开幕三天内光速签约？ 图为凌度智能在本届广交会上签约订单 广东凌度智能科技发展有限公司给出的答案是：做全球首发、全球首创、场景创新，才能吸引 客户到访。 10月17日，凌度智能成功斩获沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、马来西亚三国超百万美元（约合700多万 元人民币）订单后，企业副总经理黄健激动地和南方财经记者分享这一喜悦。"这个效率太出 乎我们的意料，我们的外语也不是特别好，都是各种肢体语言'手舞足蹈'地交流，本来以为他 们只是问问两句走个过场，哪知道没过多久就回来谈价格，谈发货。"黄健笑着说，用公司比 较正式的发言是，"此次三连签，是凌度智能用创新定义行业标准的里程碑。" 十月的岭南大地，一场触及全球产业发展新逻辑的深层次变革正在广交会舞台上演。主导这场 变革的，是代表智能制造根基的机器人和千行百业的"智慧大脑"人工智能。它们的出现，让中 国外贸有了突围新动能。 广东是这一变革的重要"策源地"。本届广交会上，广东机器人、人工智能等高科技产品，正引 来全球客商青睐。广交会开展首日，凌度智能便推出全球首款"高空幕墙越障清洗机器人"，一 经亮相便吸引阿联酋、沙 ...

Investment Ratings - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, Huazhu Group, and Haidilao, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the F&B sector, particularly noting the 10.7% increase in the stock price of Guoquan [4][7]. - It also mentions the strategic partnership between Haier Group and Alibaba, focusing on AI and digital innovation [3][6]. - Jiumaojiu's operational data for Q3 shows a decrease in same-store sales, but improvements in operational metrics are noted [3][6]. Weekly Performance Summary - Key performers in the F&B sector include Guoquan (+10.7%) and Xiaocaiyuan (+3.0%), while underperformers include ECOVACS (-11.8%) and ROBOROCK (-12.5%) in the home appliances sector [4][7]. - The report provides detailed stock price changes and PE ratios for various companies, indicating market trends and investor sentiment [5].

（原标题：老牌家电突围广交会：蹚过"三重门"，逆势谋增量） 南方财经记者伍素文 朱治宣 广州报道 广交会开幕前的一个多月，广州工控集团旗下工控国际总经理兼万宝冰箱副总经理陈刚和团队就开始联络客户、准备展品、对接需求。17日，记 者在广交会展馆见到陈刚的时候，他正在给客商介绍产品，身上的衬衫已经给汗水浸湿，紧贴着后背。 有广州"工业航母"之称的广州工控集团此次携26个展位亮相，开展首日便斩获了超300万美元的订单，彰显出"广州制造"的吸引力。作为一家老牌 家电企业，为了吸引更多的客流，万宝冰箱此次增加了更多场景式布置和多款精准适配当地需求的机型。 尽管当前外贸环境面临挑战，但是，广交会上的企业依旧努力蹚过技术升级、市场竞争、贸易壁垒"三重门"，积极通过技术创新与挖掘新兴市场 等举措巩固海外市场，以期"逆势上扬"。 展位上，万宝压缩机作为冰箱制冷的核心部件被摆放在了最显眼的位置。据现场工作人员介绍，此次参展的产品均为绿色环保高效产品，其中 VSN140深冷压缩机获2024年艾普兰核芯奖，技术经鉴定达国际领先水平。 这些产品背后，其实是万宝从引入日本生产线到完全实现技术自主的缩影。 "万宝"靠冰箱起家，20世纪80 ...

- The report introduces a "Three-dimensional Timing Framework" model, which is based on liquidity, divergence, and prosperity indicators. The model suggests that the market is in a consolidation phase, with liquidity trending downward, divergence trending upward, and prosperity remaining stable. The framework indicates a continued oscillating downward trend[7][12][14] - The "ETF Hotspot Trend Strategy" is constructed by selecting ETFs with both the highest and lowest price trends in an upward direction. The strategy further incorporates a support-resistance factor based on the steepness of the regression coefficients of the highest and lowest prices over the past 20 days. The top 10 ETFs with the highest turnover rate in the last 5 days relative to the last 20 days are selected to form a risk parity portfolio[28][31] - The "Capital Flow Resonance Strategy" is built using two factors: the financing margin factor and the active large-order capital factor. The financing margin factor is defined as the two-week rate of change of the 50-day average of the market-neutralized financing net buy minus the margin net buy (aggregated by individual stocks). The active large-order capital factor is defined as the net inflow ranking of the time-neutralized industry transaction volume over the past year, taking the 10-day average. The strategy excludes extreme head industries from the active large-order factor and applies a negative exclusion for the top industries in the financing margin factor. This adjustment improves the strategy's stability. Since 2018, the strategy has achieved an annualized excess return of 13.5% after fees, with an IR of 1.7. Last week, the strategy recorded a positive excess return of 4.96% relative to industry equal weight, with an absolute return of 2.37%[37][40] Model Backtesting Results - Three-dimensional Timing Framework: Historical performance indicates oscillating downward trends during periods of low liquidity and high divergence[14] - ETF Hotspot Trend Strategy: The strategy has achieved cumulative excess returns over the CSI 300 index this year[29][30] - Capital Flow Resonance Strategy: Since 2018, the strategy has achieved an annualized excess return of 13.5% after fees, with an IR of 1.7. Last week, it recorded a positive excess return of 4.96% relative to industry equal weight, with an absolute return of 2.37%[37][40] Factor Construction and Evaluation - **Beta Factor**: Constructed to measure the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns. It recorded a positive return of 2.63% last week, indicating that high-beta portfolios outperformed low-beta portfolios[41][42] - **Growth Factor**: Reflects high-growth stocks favored by the market. It achieved a return of 1.51% last week[41][42] - **Size Factor**: Measures the performance of large-cap versus small-cap stocks. It recorded a positive return of 1.39% last week, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks[41][42] - **Alpha Factors**: Includes institutional holdings and momentum factors. Notable factors include "Fund Holdings to Float Share Ratio" (1.33% weekly excess return), "Top Ten Mean Stock Value to NAV" (1.00% weekly excess return), and "1-Year-1-Month Momentum" (0.94% weekly excess return)[44][46] - **Growth and R&D Factors**: Factors such as "R&D Total Assets Ratio" (22.36% weekly excess return in CSI 300), "R&D Sales Revenue Ratio" (19.32% weekly excess return in CSI 300), and "Quarterly ROE YoY Difference" (19.43% weekly excess return in CSI 300) performed well across different indices, with stronger results in small-cap indices like CSI 1000[47][48] Factor Backtesting Results - **Beta Factor**: Annual return of 27.16%, monthly return of 2.83%, weekly return of 2.63%[42] - **Growth Factor**: Annual return of -0.45%, monthly return of 4.73%, weekly return of 1.51%[42] - **Size Factor**: Annual return of -23.40%, monthly return of 4.72%, weekly return of 1.39%[42] - **Alpha Factors**: Weekly excess returns range from 0.56% to 1.33%, with monthly excess returns ranging from 1.79% to 3.68%[44][46] - **Growth and R&D Factors**: Weekly excess returns in CSI 300 range from 13.71% to 22.36%, with higher returns observed in smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000[47][48]

央视网消息（新闻联播）：第138届广交会首期展览10月19日结束。截至19日17时，境外采购商线下到会超15.7万人，比上届增长6.3%，到会人数创同期历 史新高。 本届广交会第二期线下展以"品质家居"为主题，将于10月23日至27日举行，五天展期里将集中展出建材及家具、家庭用品、礼品及装饰品三大题材。 本届广交会首期展览总面积52万平方米，展位数量超2.5万个，参展企业约1.2万家，拥有国家级高新技术企业、制造业单项冠军、专精特新"小巨人"等称号 优质特色企业超5500家，比上届增加400家，占本届广交会优质特色企业总数的55%。展区里，精密加工机床、AI智能穿戴设备、绿色节能家电、智能机器 人等一批高科技高附加值产品，吸引了众多客商驻足体验。从过去的来图加工，到如今推出原创设计及整体解决方案，本届广交会越来越多的中国企业展示 出"中国智造"向高附加值转型的新趋势、新动能。 ...

本届广交会第一期即将结束，本期展览上，众多参展企业以创新为驱动，凭借差异化产品与精准市场策 略积极开拓新兴市场，成效显著。展会首期实现"开门红"，为企业抢抓明年海外订单奠定了坚实基础。 参展商 周安：精准匹配中亚地区基建和居家维修市场需求。截至目前，我们已经接待80组专业采购 商，预计后续订单总额将突破1000万美元。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 参展商 张庆福：面对现在国际市场上的局势，我们仍然要做的就是用差异化的产品和解决方案去俘获 消费者的心。 在工具展区，一家精准捕捉新兴市场需求的企业，受到许多消费者的青睐。这家企业推出了多款功能创 新、实用性强的产品，并通过设立自主研发工具互动体验区，吸引了客商来此洽谈合作。 在本届广交会上，不少企业展出了独具特色的产品。在一从事家电行业的企业展位上记者看到，该企业 通过将AI技术应用于家电场景，让冰箱能实现食材管理、健康饮食规划等功能，为全球客商带来了智 慧家庭新体验。 ...

特朗普宣布 11 月 1 日额外加征 100% 关税，市场情绪虽面临关税 3.0 冲击，但相比 4 月 7 日的当日暴跌，此次反应相对温和。 国庆以来的七个交易日，前期涨幅较猛的科技板块如科创 50 及创业板成为重灾区，板块指数较高点跌幅均超 10% 。尽管中长期看市场主线或仍是大 科技，但短期风险较为集中。 上证指数表现相对抗跌，九、十月份始终在 3732 至 3900 点区间箱体震荡， 10 月 9 日及 15 日曾两次突破 3900 点，但均被拉回箱体内。 这主要源于两点不确定性：一是关税尚未落地，二是三季度财报尚未完全公布。这些因素导致大资金保持谨慎观望，近期银行板块、贵金属的持续上涨 以及 10 月 17 日 （ 本周五 ） 市场的集中暴跌均体现了这一点。 展望下周大盘，需重点关注两点：一是周一、周二的止跌反弹力度，反弹越强，风险消化越充分，越有利于大盘再次上攻；二是 3800 点支撑位，只要 不跌破，大盘进一步下跌的风险就较小。 然而 面对这些不确定性，家电企业却展现出不同态势：一方面供应链转移准备充分，四季度海外产能多数覆盖对美敞口；另一方面三季度出口链环比改 善趋势确立，基本面企稳向上。接下来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's export growth is entering a new phase in 2024-2025, with an overall high growth rate expected, driven by various factors including fiscal expansion in developed economies and increased global demand for new industrial products [2][5][6]. Export Growth Analysis - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level, with a month-on-month growth of 2.1%, consistent with seasonal averages [3][5]. - The third quarter saw a year-on-year export growth of 6.6%, aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal low of 1.0% month-on-month [5]. - For the fourth quarter, a simple calculation suggests a year-on-year growth of 3.6% if the month-on-month growth aligns with the seasonal average [5]. Historical Context - From 2000 to 2011, China's export growth averaged 21.8%, significantly outpacing global export growth of 11.0% [6]. - The period from 2012 to 2019 saw a decline in China's export growth, averaging only 3.7%, while global export growth was around 0.7% [7]. - The years 2020 to 2023 experienced high volatility in exports, with China’s growth fluctuating in response to global supply chain disruptions [7]. Future Projections - In 2024, global exports are projected to grow by 2.3%, while China's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% [8]. - The article predicts that in 2024-2025, China's export growth will exceed global growth by more than double, driven by factors such as fiscal policies in developed countries and increased demand for high-tech products [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have shown significant growth, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 14.7% and 28.3% respectively in the first nine months of the year [10]. - Exports to Africa have been particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% in September [10]. Product Export Performance - High-end product exports are experiencing substantial growth, with exports of integrated circuits increasing by 32.7% and general machinery by 24.9% [11]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products like textiles and clothing have seen a decline in exports, with a combined year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [11]. Import Trends - In September, imports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits [12]. - The acceleration in imports may be linked to policy-driven financial tools and project initiations, indicating potential improvements in investment for the fourth quarter [12].

□ 大河财立方 记者闫文瑞 王宁宁 文 洪昊旸 摄影 在全球经贸格局深刻调整、不确定性因素交织的当下，第138届中国进出口商品交易会（广交会）燃起了一把不一样的"火"。本届广交会分三期举行，展位 总数7.46万个，参展企业超3.2万家，均创历史新高。这场跨越69载的"中国第一展"，以实实在在的创新实践，向世界传递出中国外贸转型的信号，也为全球 贸易注入了宝贵的确定性。 信号一：从制造到智造，新质生产力正重塑外贸竞争力 本届广交会第一期以"先进制造"为主题，AI家电、具身机器人、外骨骼装备、智能艾灸机器人等硬科技产品密集亮相，不再是"秀肌肉"，而是实实在在的订 单引擎。海尔接入大模型的AI冰箱、越疆的按摩机器人、凌度可越障20cm的清洗机器人等，都在现场收获高意向订单甚至直接成交。这些产品背后，是中 国企业以"智能化、绿色化、高端化"为方向，从代工出口向技术出海的实质性跨越。新质生产力，正成为外贸企业撬动全球市场的战略支点。 信号二：市场策略从广撒网到精耕作，定制化与信任构建成关键 "老广交"们不再依赖低价竞争或泛化推销，而是通过深度市场洞察，推动产品与服务的精准适配。河南康拜恩针对非洲气候定制大冷凝器冰箱，隆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 15th World CMF Conference will focus on cross-industry integration, collaborative innovation, and ecological win-win strategies, gathering over 500 renowned materials companies, design institutions, and brand representatives to explore the future of CMF trends and new materials [5][42]. Event Overview - The conference will take place on October 28-29, 2025, in Shenzhen, China, featuring the 9th International New Materials and Processes and Color Exhibition [5][63]. - The event aims to connect users, markets, and brands, highlighting the increasing importance of CMF in response to changing environments [5]. Attendee List - Notable attendees include global leaders from various sectors such as automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial design, with representatives from companies like BYD, Xiaomi, and Lenovo [7][8][11]. Agenda Highlights - The first day includes keynote speeches on CMF trends, the future of CMF in the circular economy, and innovative aesthetics in home appliances [11][12][19]. - The second day features discussions on smart surfaces in automotive interiors, Chinese design trends, and the application of AI in CMF design [19][20][21]. Parallel Activities - The conference will host a supply-demand matchmaking event, inviting over 60 global material suppliers to showcase new technologies and products, facilitating one-on-one meetings between suppliers and brand representatives [42][43]. - A CMF training workshop led by Chris Lefteri will also be conducted, focusing on CMF trends and strategies [51][63]. Registration and Participation - Early bird registration is available until October 21, 2025, with ticket prices set at 3000 RMB per person [56]. - Sponsorship opportunities are open for various levels, including naming rights and advertising options [59].