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短期波动不改经济长期向好大势——解读4月份PMI数据
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-04-30 12:31
Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in the manufacturing PMI to 49% in April, the overall economic output in China continues to expand, indicating a long-term positive trend in the economy [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical point due to high growth in previous months and changes in the external environment [1]. - The new export orders index dropped to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, indicating a tightening of foreign demand [1]. - The manufacturing production index was recorded at 49.8%, down by 2.8 percentage points, reflecting a slight decline in overall production [2]. High-Tech Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52% [3]. - Industries such as food processing, pharmaceuticals, and beverages also showed strong performance, with production and new orders indices above 53% [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, slightly down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating stable expansion [3]. - The aviation transport and entertainment sectors saw significant increases in their business activity indices, both exceeding 55% [4]. Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was 50.2%, indicating continued economic expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month [4]. - The government emphasizes the need to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [5].
三类行业继续保持扩张态势——4月PMI数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-04-30 12:00
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人: 陆银波(15210860866) 报告摘要 PMI 数据:制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ,前值为 50.5% 。具体分项来看: 1 ) PMI 生产指数为 49.8% ,前值为 52.6% ,回落 2.8 个百分点。 2 ) PMI 新订单指数为 49.2% ,前值为 51.8% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7% ,前值为 49.0% 。 3 ) PMI 从业人员指数为 47.9% ,前值为 48.2% 。 4 )供货商配送时间指数 为 50.2% ,前值为 50.3% 。 5 ) PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0% ,前值为 47.2% 。 其他行业: 1 )建筑业:建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9% ,比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。 2 )服务业:服务业 商务活动指数为 50.1% ,比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3 )综合产出: 4 月,综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2% ,比上月下降 1.2 个百分点,仍高于临界点。 PMI 点评:三类行业继续 ...
4月PMI数据点评:三类行业继续保持扩张态势
Huachuang Securities· 2025-04-30 10:05
宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 三类行业继续保持扩张态势 ——4 月 PMI 数据点评 ❖ PMI 数据:制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%,前值为 50.5%。具体分项来看:1)PMI 生产指数 为 49.8%,前值为 52.6%,回落 2.8 个百分点。2)PMI 新订单指数为 49.2%, 前值为 51.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7%,前值为 49.0%。3) PMI 从业 人员指数为 47.9%,前值为 48.2%。4)供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%,前值为 50.3%。5)PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0%,前值为 47.2%。 其他行业:1)建筑业:建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%,比上月下降 1.5 个百 分点。2)服务业:服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%,比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3)综合产出:4 月,综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%,比上月下降 1.2 个百分点, 仍高于临界点。 ❖ PMI 点评:三类行业继续保持扩张态势 (一)外部环境急剧变化影响下,部分指标出现下滑 4 月,受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 ...
4月份制造业采购经理指数为49%,显示宏观经济运行有所波动
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 02:30
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - All 13 sub-indices related to manufacturing showed a decline, with the production index, new orders index, and new export orders index experiencing significant drops, reflecting a contraction in demand [2][4] - The overall economic output remains stable, with the composite PMI output index at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite the decline in manufacturing PMI [1][4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][8] - Key indices in the non-manufacturing sector, such as new orders and new export orders, also saw declines, but the construction and service industries showed resilience, particularly in tourism and entertainment [6][8] - The business activity expectation index has remained above 55% for seven consecutive months, indicating a stable optimistic outlook among enterprises for future market conditions [8] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - Analysts emphasize the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased government investment in public goods to stimulate market demand and improve employment and income levels [5] - The overall economic environment is influenced by external uncertainties, including trade tensions, which necessitate a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [1][4] - The second quarter is expected to see stable performance in the non-manufacturing sector, supported by the release of economic stabilization policies [8]