Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price adjustment due to external uncertainties and anticipated recovery in domestic demand [5][7]. Core Views - The textile industry is facing significant external uncertainties, but the large-scale and continuously upgrading domestic demand market is seen as a stabilizing factor for high-quality development [2]. - The company is focusing on product design and innovation, aiming to lead industry trends through diverse product offerings and continuous breakthroughs in design and materials [3]. - The company is enhancing its omni-channel strategy by integrating online and offline channels, improving retail management capabilities, and optimizing e-commerce operations across various platforms [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 500 million, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 million, down 29% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s revenue was 1.6 billion, a decline of 14%, with a net profit of 160 million, down 46% year-on-year [1]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 estimates net profits of 360 million, 390 million, and 420 million respectively, with EPS of 0.43, 0.47, and 0.50 [5][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.73 billion, with a growth rate of -9.37%, and the EBITDA is expected to be 470 million [6]. - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 16.68, 15.40, and 14.36 respectively [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 4.79 billion in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.43% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue growing by 9.9% year-on-year to 1.2 billion yuan and net profit increasing by 50.1% to 150 million yuan [1]. - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 5.8% to 3.39 billion yuan, with a notable improvement in gross margin and net profit margin [1]. - E-commerce and direct sales are expected to continue strong growth, while franchise sales may see a reduced decline [1][2]. - The company is focusing on cost control and high-margin product sales to enhance profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 2025 revenue rose by 9.9% to 1.2 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 3.8 percentage points to 48.1% [1]. - Net profit for Q3 reached 150 million yuan, reflecting a 50.1% year-on-year growth [1]. Year-to-Date Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue grew by 5.8% to 3.39 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 30% to 340 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 47.9% [1]. Business Segments - E-commerce sales in H1 2025 grew by 18.32%, while direct sales increased by 5.14% [1]. - Franchise sales saw a decline of 8.65% in H1 2025, but the decline is expected to narrow in Q3 [1]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates a 20.6% increase in net profit for the full year 2025, reaching 522 million yuan, driven by growth in e-commerce and direct sales [3]. - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow by 6.9% to 4.872 billion yuan [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 14 times, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 522 million, 593 million, and 664 million yuan respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' Q3 performance showed slight growth in revenue for Anta and Fila brands, while other brands experienced a significant increase of 45% to 50% [1][2][3] - The overall performance aligns with expectations, despite a challenging domestic consumption environment [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its offline store structure and adjusting its e-commerce strategy, which may impact short-term sales [1][2] - The report forecasts a 10% revenue growth for the company in 2025, with a projected revenue of 78.181 billion yuan and a net profit of 13 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase from 2024 [3][5] Summary by Sections Anta Brand - Q3 revenue growth for the Anta brand was in the low single digits, indicating a healthy operational quality [1] - The company is adjusting its offline store strategy and enhancing its e-commerce framework, which may temporarily affect sales [1] Fila Brand - Fila's Q3 revenue also grew in the low single digits, impacted by high temperatures and fluctuating consumer demand [2] - The brand is expected to leverage the Q4 sales peak to drive growth, with a projected revenue increase in the mid-single digits for 2025 [2] Other Brands - Other brands under Anta experienced a robust revenue growth of 45% to 50%, with notable performance from Descente and Kolon [3] - Maia Active is also expected to show strong growth in Q3 [3] Financial Projections - The report estimates a 10% revenue growth for 2025, reaching 78.181 billion yuan, and a net profit of 13 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase from 2024 [3][5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 4.64 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 times [5][3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月28日 安踏体育（02020.HK） 三季度流水增长放缓，管理层调低安踏品牌流水指引 公司研究·海外公司快评 纺织服饰·服装家纺 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 10 月 27 日，公司公告第三季度最新营运表现，2025 第三季度，安踏主品牌录得低单位数正增长，FILA 录 得低单位数正增长，其他品牌录得 45-50%正增长。 国信纺服观点： 1、2025 第三季度：安踏集团整体增长稳健，其中其他品牌延续高增长态势，安踏品牌与 FILA 品牌均实现 低单位数增长，增速较第二季度有所放缓；安踏品牌线下折扣稳定、线上折扣略有增加，库销比主受大促 备货影响上升，库存仍处于健康水平；管理层下调安踏品牌全年流水指引，但维持安踏经营利润率指引及 FILA 和其他品牌流水增长指引。 2、风险提示：关税政策不确定性；品 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20][21] Core Views - The company experienced a narrowing decline in revenue in the third quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% to 535 million yuan, compared to a 15.3% decline in the second quarter [1][2] - Gross margin decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 53.4%, primarily due to inventory clearance [1] - The overall expense ratio stabilized, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, while sales and management expense ratios changed by +1.0 and -1.3 percentage points respectively [1] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 28.7% to 54 million yuan, with a net profit margin decrease of 3.0 percentage points to 10.0% [1] - Inventory turnover days increased by 31 days to 285 days, indicating a proactive approach to assist franchisees with returns and exchanges [1] - The company’s operating cash flow significantly improved, maintaining a high net cash ratio of 2.07 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.8%, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 45.5% [2][20] - The decline in revenue was mainly attributed to high inventory levels in the franchise channel due to strong stocking last year, while the direct sales channel was affected by reduced foot traffic [2] - The e-commerce channel remained relatively stable, with expected improvements in growth rates across all channels in the third quarter compared to the first half of the year [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to stabilize its performance next year as inventory improves and franchisee orders return to normal [20] - Long-term, the company has demonstrated operational resilience and has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 90% in the past three years [20] - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 390 million, 410 million, and 430 million yuan respectively, with a projected year-on-year change of -28.5%, +5.2%, and +5.1% [20][21] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5 [21] - The estimated gross margin for 2025 is 55%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.9% [21] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 6.019 billion yuan, with a closing price of 7.18 yuan [5][21]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various companies in the textile and apparel industry, indicating a mixed recovery in sales and profitability across different segments [5][8][14] - The report emphasizes the impact of promotional activities, particularly in e-commerce, on driving sales growth for small and medium-sized businesses [7][9] - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see a revaluation as tariff risks stabilize, with global textile and apparel exports projected to reach approximately $882.7 billion by 2024 [13][14] Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,996.94, up 1.18% [4] - The textile and apparel sector experienced a slight increase of 0.37%, while the light industry manufacturing sector rose by 2.62% [9] Company Performance - Tmall and JD flagship stores of Lao Pu Gold have seen a price increase of around 20% for major products, indicating strong demand in the jewelry sector [14] - For the first half of FY2026, Tabo's revenue decreased by 5.8% to 12.299 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 9.7% to 789 million yuan [8] - Wan'an Technology reported a 13.93% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.46 billion yuan, with a net profit of 148 million yuan [17] Industry Dynamics - The textile manufacturing sector's exports from China for the first nine months of 2025 were $106.48 billion for textiles and $115.21 billion for apparel, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.1% and a decline of 2.5%, respectively [14] - The report notes that the global textile and apparel export growth rate is expected to average 3.2% from 2020 to 2024, recovering from previous declines [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Shenzhou International, which has a lower exposure to U.S. tariffs and a strong overseas production capacity [16] - It also suggests monitoring brands such as Bosideng and Anta Sports for potential growth opportunities in the apparel sector [10][16]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities suggests a positive outlook for the textile manufacturing sector, highlighting companies expected to exceed third-quarter performance, benefit from rising wool prices, and experience inventory appreciation, as well as a recovery in downstream orders [1] Group 1: Short-term Recommendations - Companies with third-quarter performance expected to exceed forecasts should be closely monitored [1] - Focus on companies benefiting from the significant increase in wool prices and inventory appreciation [1] Group 2: Mid-term Recommendations - Companies experiencing a recovery in downstream orders should be considered for investment [1] - Emphasis on companies with traditional business recovery and high growth in new consumer sectors with substantial future development potential [1] Group 3: Long-term Recommendations - Attention should be given to leading companies within the sector, as the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" on these companies is limited [1] - The industry concentration is expected to increase, supporting the long-term stable growth of leading companies [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 广发证券研报指出，上游纺织制造板块，短期建议关注Q3业绩有望超预期的公司；中期建议关注受益 羊毛价格大涨、库存升值，且下游订单回暖的公司；长期建议关注板块内龙头公司，行业集中度有望进 一步提升，看好其长期业绩有望保持稳健增长。下游服装家纺板块，首先，建议关注Q3业绩有望超预 期的家纺龙头等，其次，建议关注传统主业回暖，新消费业务高增长且未来发展空间大的公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities suggests a focus on companies in the upstream textile manufacturing sector that are expected to exceed Q3 performance expectations, as well as those benefiting from rising wool prices and improved downstream orders in the medium term. Long-term prospects are favorable for leading companies in the sector due to limited impact from equivalent tariffs and potential for increased industry concentration, indicating stable growth in long-term performance [1]. Upstream Textile Manufacturing Sector - Short-term focus on companies likely to exceed Q3 performance expectations [1] - Medium-term focus on companies benefiting from rising wool prices, increased inventory value, and recovering downstream orders [1] - Long-term focus on leading companies in the sector, with limited impact from equivalent tariffs and potential for increased industry concentration, suggesting stable long-term growth [1] Downstream Apparel and Home Textile Sector - Initial focus on leading home textile companies expected to exceed Q3 performance [1] - Attention on companies with traditional business recovery and high growth in new consumer segments, indicating significant future development potential [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7.6% in Q3 2025, with a net profit decrease of 28.7%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the first half of the year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the overall revenue decreased by 13.8% to 1.63 billion yuan, and the net profit dropped by 45.5% to 160 million yuan [1][2]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and has shown improved cash flow performance, with a net operating cash flow of 400 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 540 million yuan, with a gross margin of 53.4%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 1 percentage point to 33%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 3.5% [1]. - For the first three quarters, the gross margin was 53.5%, with a sales expense ratio of 35.1% [1][2]. Business Segments - The direct retail and e-commerce segments are expected to continue facing challenges, while e-commerce may show growth due to new product launches and increased marketing efforts [1]. - The franchise business has been in a destocking phase, with a 43% revenue decline in H1 2025 and a net closure of 59 stores [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a 32% decline in performance for the full year 2025, with projected revenue of 2.687 billion yuan and a net profit of 371 million yuan [2][3]. - The company aims to improve its franchise business performance in 2026 as inventory health improves [2].