Group 1: New Momentum Growth Changes - The high-tech manufacturing industry has seen a significant increase in prosperity since 2023, with the EPMI index showing a larger rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating improved conditions in emerging industries[2] - In the first half of 2025, the added value of high-tech industries grew by 8.6% year-on-year, contributing 2.3% to GDP, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023[2] - The growth momentum of high-tech manufacturing has shifted from external demand to internal demand, with revenue resilience increasingly coming from domestic sectors since 2022[3] Group 2: Profit Performance of New Momentum - High-tech manufacturing profits have shown greater resilience compared to other industries, with profit margins maintaining a higher level, approximately 2 percentage points above other manufacturing sectors[4] - As of July 2025, the profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5%, while other industries were at 4.3%[4] - The cost rate for high-tech manufacturing is about 5 percentage points lower than that of other manufacturing, supporting its relatively high profit margins[4] Group 3: Potential Impacts of Accelerated New Momentum - The improvement in profits within high-tech manufacturing is expected to directly support wages and employment, with employment growth in this sector projected to reach 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with a negative growth rate of -1.7% in other manufacturing sectors[6] - High-tech manufacturing sectors such as computer communication and specialized equipment are seeing significant increases in employment share, with respective increases of 0.7, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points by July 2025[6] - Rising wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to further boost household income, with average annual salary growth in sectors like electrical machinery and computer communication projected at 14.9% and 12% respectively from 2019 to 2024[6]

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 8 月，生产端，下游生产转弱带动工业增加值同比增速回落。需求端，投资、消费增速也延续 了边际下滑趋势。供需两侧均呈现出下行压力。向前看，进入四季度后，消费、出口增速均是 相对较高的基数，经济在量的增长方面所面临的压力可能更强。而如果需求偏弱，年内若不落 实明确的控量举措，可能使得大宗价格二度回落。但随着美联储进入降息周期，内外环境均指 向总量政策有望迎来新一轮发力。从去年年底以来的经验看，总量政策发力有待党中央集中统 一部署，时点仍待观察。 丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 量的增长再度面临考验 ——8 月经济数据点评 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 量的增长再度面临考验 2] ——8 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 9 月 15 ...

Economic Overview - The domestic economy continued to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, leading to increased internal differentiation [2][3] - Industrial value-added growth year-on-year was 5.2% in August, down from 5.7% in July, indicating a slight decline but still at a relatively high level [4][6] - The overall economic trend is expected to maintain a slow and stable trajectory with structural optimization, but demand recovery will take time [2][3] Production Sector - The production growth rate showed a slight decline, primarily due to external demand pressures and some upstream industries experiencing production cuts [4][6] - The production-sales rate decreased from 97.1% to 96.6%, indicating a marginal improvement in domestic consumption capacity [4] - Policy-related industries, such as transportation equipment and non-ferrous metals, showed resilience, while export and consumer-related sectors faced significant pressure [6][7] Service Sector - The service sector's production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year in August, down 0.2 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown [7] - High-value-added industries like information technology and finance showed growth, while leasing and business services faced challenges due to weak corporate expansion intentions [7] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.3% in August, primarily due to seasonal pressures from the influx of recent graduates into the labor market [9] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth year-on-year was 3.4% in August, down 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating a need for stronger consumption recovery [12][15] - Dining consumption showed signs of recovery, while retail sales growth for goods slowed down, reflecting a mixed performance across different categories [14][15] - Essential consumption categories faced declines, while some upgraded consumption categories showed resilience, supported by seasonal demand and policy measures [15] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth was 0.5% year-on-year for January to August, with August showing a significant decline of 7.1% compared to July [16][19] - Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate all experienced negative growth, necessitating policy support to break the downward cycle [16][20] - The real estate sector continued to face fundamental pressures, with sales area and sales value both declining significantly year-on-year [20]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant downturn in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August to 5.3%[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year's 17.1%[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment saw a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month downward trend[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[6] - The inventory of residential properties has decreased for six consecutive months, indicating ongoing destocking efforts[6] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand[6] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly diminishing, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a recorded rate of 17.8% for individuals aged 18-24[56]

Economic Overview - In August, the GDP growth rate was approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in the previous month[2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease from 5.7%[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a decline for three consecutive months[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to August was recorded at 0.5%, down from 1.6%[2] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.1%, continuing a five-month decline[4] - Infrastructure investment growth was 2.0%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] Consumer Behavior - The consumer confidence index remains low, with only 23.3% of residents inclined towards increased consumption[13] - The "old-for-new" policy benefits are rapidly fading, leading to a shift in focus towards subsidy efficiency and sustainability[9] Real Estate Market - New housing sales area decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down by 7.3%[30] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector[39] - Housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months, suggesting ongoing destocking efforts[30] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase in August[55] - Youth unemployment remains a concern, with a rate of 17.8% for those aged 18-24, higher than the previous year[56]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of industrial structure adjustment in China's 14th and upcoming 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing a shift from focusing on the proportion of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and high-quality development [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Industrial Structure Adjustment - Industrial structure adjustment is a crucial component of China's Five-Year Plans, serving as a key means to achieve core objectives [3][16]. - The 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans have set clear quantitative targets for industrial structure adjustments, focusing on advanced manufacturing and innovation [3][5]. 2. Evolution of Industrial Structure Adjustment - The focus has shifted from the proportion of the three industries to technological innovation and R&D investment from the 11th to the 14th Five-Year Plans [5][28]. - The importance of service industry value-added ratios has diminished, while R&D expenditure has become a central indicator [5][28]. 3. Directions for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The primary direction for the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with a focus on "anti-involution" and service industry development [7][8]. - The emphasis on technological innovation is expected to continue, with new emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and marine economy being highlighted [7][22]. 4. Service Industry Focus - The service industry's focus has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, reflecting a decrease in reliance on traditional sectors [6][47]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to enhance the service industry's openness and stimulate service consumption and trade [8][49]. 5. Manufacturing Sector Changes - The requirements for the manufacturing sector have evolved from quantity to quality, with a growing emphasis on high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing [35][40]. - The contribution of high-tech industries to economic growth has become increasingly significant, outpacing traditional labor-intensive sectors [32][44].

Group 1: Industry Structure Adjustment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industry structure adjustment as a key component of national economic planning, with specific targets set in previous plans like the "13th" and "14th" Five-Year Plans[1] - The focus of industry structure adjustment has shifted from the ratio of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and R&D investment[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduced new targets for digital economy core industries, reflecting a transition from broad to detailed planning[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Targets - From 2010 to 2024, the share of the secondary industry in GDP has stabilized, with figures of 45.7%, 40.0%, 36.9%, and 36.5% respectively, while the tertiary industry's share increased from 45.1% to 56.7%[21] - The average growth rate of R&D investment in enterprises reached 9.8% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a strong emphasis on innovation[17] - The service sector's contribution to GDP has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, with significant increases in the GDP share of information transmission and technology services during the "13th" Five-Year Plan[4] Group 3: Future Directions and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to continue supporting technological innovation, with emerging industries like artificial intelligence and marine economy highlighted in recent government meetings[5] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy aims to address supply-demand mismatches in manufacturing, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 34 consecutive months as of July 2025[6] - The service sector is anticipated to receive increased policy support to enhance employment stability and stimulate consumption, particularly in areas like education and healthcare[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "anti-involution" as a new phase of supply-side reform, highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand as a core issue, leading to declining capacity utilization, falling prices, shrinking corporate profits, and increasing economic downward pressure [5][15]. Group 1: Similarities between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - Both anti-involution and supply-side reform are driven by structural supply-demand imbalances, resulting in significant declines in industrial capacity utilization. For instance, industrial capacity utilization fell from 76.8% in Q4 2013 to 72.9% in 2016 before supply-side reform, and from 77.4% in Q4 2021 to 74.0% by Q2 2025 during the anti-involution phase [5][6][13]. - Industrial prices have also seen substantial declines. During the supply-side reform period, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced negative growth for 54 consecutive months starting from March 2012. Similarly, the PPI has been in negative growth since October 2022, continuing for 34 months as of July 2025 [6][10]. - Corporate profits have declined due to falling demand and prices. In 2015, industrial profits fell by 2.3%, marking the first negative growth since 1998. In the anti-involution period, industrial profits have been in negative growth since 2022, with a 1.8% decline in the first seven months of 2025 [7][10]. - Economic downward pressure has intensified, with declining capacity utilization and industrial prices leading to reduced corporate revenues and profits, which in turn decrease investment and increase unemployment. GDP growth fell from 8.1% in Q4 2012 to 6.9% in Q4 2015 during the supply-side reform, while the growth rate has stabilized around 5% during the anti-involution period [13][19]. Group 2: Differences between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly. While both periods face demand shortages, the anti-involution phase is characterized by a more severe demand shortfall due to population decline and a downturn in the real estate market. In contrast, the supply-side reform period saw resilient demand supported by post-financial crisis recovery and real estate market upturns [16][19]. - The industry characteristics also vary. Supply-side reform primarily targeted traditional industries like steel and coal, while anti-involution encompasses a broader range of sectors, including emerging industries and platform economies. This shift indicates a new phenomenon where "involution" competition is prevalent across various industries [21][24]. - The reasons behind the two phases differ. Supply-side reform was largely a response to overcapacity resulting from stimulus policies, while anti-involution is influenced by a wider array of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, including the deep adjustment in the real estate sector and the transition to new production forces [30][32]. - The implementation paths diverge as well. Supply-side reform focused on traditional industries with administrative measures to cut capacity, while anti-involution emphasizes legal and market-based approaches to regulate competition and foster innovation [40][43].

Core Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the strategic importance of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative technology for the new industrial revolution and modernization efforts [1][3] - China Mobile is actively promoting AI integration in manufacturing, launching initiatives and guidelines to facilitate the adoption of AI technologies among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [3][5] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The State Council has issued opinions to deepen the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, aiming to cultivate new productive forces and ensure that all citizens benefit from AI advancements [1] - The event in Ningbo marks a significant step in promoting AI-driven industrial transformation, with the establishment of an AI+ manufacturing ecosystem [3][6] Group 2: AI in Manufacturing - China Mobile, in collaboration with Huawei, released practical guidelines for AI applications in manufacturing, targeting the challenges faced by SMEs [5][6] - The guidelines focus on 63 AI application scenarios across ten key industries in Ningbo, providing a comprehensive operational manual for AI transformation [5] Group 3: Pilot Projects and Collaborations - China Mobile has initiated pilot projects in Ningbo, showcasing successful AI applications that significantly enhance production efficiency, such as an 80% increase in production efficiency at a flexible production line [6][9] - Strategic partnerships have been formed, including a collaboration with China Nuclear Zhejiang Energy to integrate AI with energy technologies [7][9] Group 4: Ecosystem Development - The establishment of the "Factory Operating System Ecosystem" aims to create a comprehensive service model for industrial clients, enhancing production efficiency and reducing transformation risks [11][13] - China Mobile is building an AI+ manufacturing ecosystem with various partners to support algorithm development and industry-specific solutions [13][15] Group 5: Future Directions - The ongoing efforts in Ningbo are expected to serve as a replicable model for AI-driven industrialization across China, promoting a new era of intelligent manufacturing [6][9] - The collaboration among industry players is crucial for accelerating the digital transformation of manufacturing and fostering innovation in AI applications [15]