Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties across various sectors including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1][2]. Group 1: Energy and Chemical Products - Institutions show a strong consensus on bullish views for certain products like PX (para-xylene), driven by supply constraints and robust demand, particularly in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - Conversely, there is a unified bearish outlook for products like MEG (ethylene glycol) and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), attributed to oversupply and weak demand dynamics [3][4]. - The oil market is expected to experience fluctuations, with Brent crude prices projected to range between $60-70 per barrel in the first half and potentially rise to $70-80 in the second half of 2026 [5][9]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Strategies - Price predictions for Brent crude suggest a range of $55-75 per barrel, with strategies focusing on high sell positions above $65 and long positions if prices drop to around $50 [10][15]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate between 2000-2600 yuan per ton, with strategies emphasizing seasonal trading opportunities [57][90]. - Urea prices are anticipated to range from 1500-1950 yuan per ton, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance and reliance on export policies for stabilization [99][100]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply-Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance is projected to shift from a slight surplus in the first half of 2026 to a tighter balance in the latter half, influenced by geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production decisions [7][8][44]. - Institutions highlight the ongoing tension between supply growth from OPEC+ and non-OECD countries against the backdrop of resilient demand, particularly from strategic reserves [7][8]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious approach to trading, with many institutions advocating for strategies that capitalize on seasonal fluctuations and geopolitical developments [35][36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Core Viewpoint**: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as capital expenditure continues to weaken year-on-year, and the domestic push against "involution" progresses. The investment value of the chemical sector is anticipated to increase through 2026 [1]. Investment Strategy - Focus on high-energy-consuming products such as calcium carbide, caustic soda, and yellow phosphorus, which may become effective tools in combating "involution" [1]. - Identify segments where the initial effects of "involution" are evident, and self-discipline is steadily advancing [1]. - Monitor products that have fallen below or are close to the industry cash cost line, as capacity clearance is expected to accelerate, particularly for products from leading companies with significant cost advantages [1]. - Look for chemical products with sustained price increase potential driven by new demand or strong downstream demand [1]. - Pay attention to chemical products related to new materials and new applications [1].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as capital expenditure continues to weaken year-on-year, alongside the domestic push against "involution" [1] Investment Strategy - Focus on high-energy-consuming products such as calcium carbide, caustic soda, and yellow phosphorus, which may become effective tools in the "anti-involution" strategy [1] - Attention to segments where the initial effects of industry self-discipline are evident and steadily progressing [1] - Some products have already fallen below or are close to the industry cash cost line, which may accelerate capacity clearance, particularly for products from leading companies with significant cost advantages [1] - Chemical products with sustained price increase potential driven by new demand or strong downstream demand [1] - Chemical products related to new materials and new applications [1]

Group 1 - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil Group aims to enhance their capabilities in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and application, promoting high-quality development in the aviation industry [1][2] - Sinopec is recognized as one of the earliest companies in China to have SAF production capabilities, filling a gap in the domestic application of SAF in local aircraft [2] - The merger will leverage the strengths of both companies in technology research and development, industrialization, storage, transportation, and international trade related to SAF, facilitating its research, usage, and continuous iteration [2][3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has included SAF in its central budget investment support scope, indicating a strong policy backing for the development of sustainable aviation fuels [2] - The aviation industry is identified as a challenging sector for emissions reduction, with SAF being the only commercial tool available to significantly lower carbon emissions from air travel, potentially reducing emissions by up to 85% without requiring modifications to aircraft or airport infrastructure [2] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that SAF will contribute approximately 62% of the carbon reduction needed for achieving net-zero emissions in aviation by 2050 [2] Group 3 - The European Union has allocated €1.6 billion in subsidies for airlines to promote SAF application, alongside clear blending directives, which are key demand stimulants for SAF [3] - Four domestic companies have received approval for a total production capacity of 116,000 tons of bio-jet fuel for export, indicating a growing domestic capacity for SAF production [3] - With increasing policy support from various countries, SAF is expected to experience a wave of large-scale development [3] Group 4 - Hai Xin Energy Technology, a company under the Beijing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focuses on bioenergy and has recently received approval for its bio-jet fuel "white list" for 2026 [4] - Fengbei Bio is one of the few companies capable of producing industrial-grade blended oils that meet SAF requirements, primarily supplying raw materials to SAF producers for further processing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, focusing on various sectors including non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The consensus among institutions is a bearish outlook for certain commodities, driven by factors such as oversupply and weak demand, particularly in iron ore and soda ash [3][5]. - Institutions like Yong'an Futures and Guotai Junan express concerns over supply expansion and stagnant demand, predicting price declines and the need for significant production cuts to achieve balance [3][5]. Ferrous Metals - The analysis indicates a mixed sentiment in the steel market, with some institutions predicting a range-bound market while others foresee downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand from the real estate sector [3][6]. - Institutions like Huatai Futures and GF Futures highlight the ongoing battle between weak domestic demand and potential policy support, leading to a complex market dynamic [3][6]. Energy and Chemicals - The outlook for coal and chemical products suggests a continuation of oversupply, with institutions forecasting price declines due to high inventory and production levels [4][10]. - The energy sector is characterized by a struggle between high supply and weak demand, with predictions of price fluctuations within defined ranges [4][10]. Agricultural Products - The agricultural commodities segment reflects a cautious approach, with institutions noting the need for production adjustments to address oversupply and maintain price stability [4][10]. - The consensus indicates that without significant demand recovery, prices are likely to remain under pressure [4][10]. Summary of Strategies - Institutions recommend a cautious trading strategy, focusing on short positions during price rebounds and monitoring supply-side adjustments to capture potential market opportunities [5][10]. - The overall sentiment suggests a need for vigilance regarding policy changes and market dynamics that could influence supply and demand balances across various commodities [5][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: Maintain a volatile outlook [15] - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: Short - term, beware of continued correction risks, consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [20] - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Expected to run strongly with a volatile trend, maintain a bullish view [25] - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Continue to hold long - term strategies [27] - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Market is weak, not recommended to bet on oversold rebounds; if there is a rebound, consider short - selling opportunities [30] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Short - term sentiment dominates, steel prices may rebound further, but still need to beware of risks [34] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Short - term trends are less related to fundamental changes, focus on capital sentiment and policy news [37] - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: Prices expected to remain stable in January [40] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Prices expected to remain strong in the next two weeks [41] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Be cautious of the risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [46] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices have rebounded from lows, pay attention to state - reserve sales and customs policies; the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] - **Agricultural Products (Hogs)**: Unilateral: Go short on near - term contracts on significant rebounds; Arbitrage: Maintain a reverse arbitrage strategy [51] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: If the MPOB report is not overly bearish and high - frequency data shows continued production cuts and increased exports, consider long positions on the May contract; for rapeseed oil, be cautious due to policy uncertainties [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Consider avoiding short positions for the time being. When the price rises above 9000 RMB/ton, consider short positions based on industry hedging conditions [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilateral: Be cautious about chasing up prices, and take profits on previous long positions in batches; Arbitrage: Wait and see for both monthly spreads and internal - external spreads [65] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The industry pattern may change significantly. Consider buying put options to participate in the market [69] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral: Wait patiently for opportunities to buy on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see [73] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: The market is sensitive to positive information, prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [76] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Closely observe short - term capital intentions, and set acceptable stop - losses when going long [77] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [81] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Market concerns about oversupply continue to suppress oil prices [83] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Prices expected to be volatile [85] - **Energy and Chemicals (Styrene)**: Temporarily treat the market as volatile in the short term [89] - **Energy and Chemicals (PTA)**: Short - term volatile adjustment, consider going long on dips [92] - **Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view in the medium term, recommend short - selling on the far - month contracts [94] - **Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The FG contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 - 1250 RMB/ton in 2026, recommend short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to potential supply - side changes [97] 2. Core Views - The US ADP employment showed moderate growth, indicating a mild downward trend in the labor market, and the US dollar index fluctuated [14] - Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and funds shifted between commodity sectors [18] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares continued to rise with increasing trading volume. Despite market concerns about regulatory cooling, the market still has strong momentum due to abundant domestic liquidity and a bullish pattern [27] - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend. Although there were news of capacity reduction in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026 due to new mine production and weak demand, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [40] - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. Macro factors supporting copper prices may weaken, and short - term fundamentals may suppress copper price increases, with copper prices likely to shift to a volatile pattern [73] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to ban Wall Street from investing in single - family homes, aiming to reduce housing prices, which may impact private equity owners and homebuilder stocks [12] - US ADP private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, mainly driven by the service industry, indicating a mild recovery in the labor market. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in December was 41,000, slightly lower than expected. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in December was 54.4, higher than expected [16][17] - China's official gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces in December 2025. Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and short - term precious metals still face downward risks [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Energy Secretary will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. The US 12 - month ISM services PMI reached a new high in more than a year, but the employment market demand continued to cool down. The US stock market is expected to be volatile and strong [21][22][24][25] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares were in a bullish sentiment with increasing trading volume. The market has strong momentum due to abundant liquidity [26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by commodity price increases. The overall bond market logic is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [28][29][30] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In December, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 13% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded due to the strong performance of metal prices. Short - term steel prices may continue to rise due to market sentiment, but the actual supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly [31][32][33][34] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. The recent sharp increase in coking coal futures was mainly driven by macro capital rotation and news sentiment, with limited connection to fundamentals. The short - term trend is mainly affected by capital and sentiment [35][36][37] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend on January 7. Although there were capacity reduction news in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [38][40] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The third - stage expansion of the Tonkolili iron ore project in Sierra Leone is advancing. Iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the next two weeks due to the expected increase in iron - making water production and the low inventory of steel mills [41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton planting area in 2026 may slightly decrease. The new cotton import quota policy has stimulated the domestic import cotton market, but the large inflow of imported cotton and yarn may impact the domestic market. Zhengzhou cotton futures may face a risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [42][43][45][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 3.383 million tons of soybeans in December. China is still purchasing US soybeans. The price of domestic soybean meal futures has rebounded from lows, but the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The sales volume of hogs of some companies increased in December. The hog futures market has a short - term high - level shock, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia may confiscate 5 - million - hectare palm plantations in 2026. The short - term trend of the oil market depends on MPOB data and high - frequency data [52][53][54] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may discuss measures to boost market confidence. The price of industrial silicon followed the increase of coking coal. In the long term, the oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change [55][56][57][58] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price had a high - level correction, and the domestic waste battery supply was tight. The lead price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [59][60][61][62] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated and corrected. The short - term zinc price may follow macro fluctuations, and the medium - term price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of production cuts by leading polysilicon companies, and the market is concerned about antitrust issues. The polysilicon industry pattern may change significantly, and buying put options is recommended [66][67][68][69] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. The short - term copper price is likely to shift to a volatile pattern, and waiting for opportunities to buy on dips is recommended [70][73] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to invest 3.688 billion yuan in a lithium ore project. The lithium carbonate market is sensitive to positive information, and prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [74][75][76] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased significantly. The nickel price has been strong due to supply reduction expectations, but be cautious when going long and set stop - losses [76][77] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [78][79][80][81] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82][83] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile [84][85] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. The market is concerned about the impact of the new naphtha consumption tax policy on the cost of olefins and aromatics. The short - term market is expected to be volatile [86][87][88][89] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis was strong. The short - term PTA market is in a volatile adjustment stage, and going long on dips is recommended [90][91][92] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was stable. The soda ash futures price increased due to macro sentiment. In the capacity expansion cycle, the medium - term trend of soda ash is bearish [93][94] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market was stable. The glass futures price increased due to market sentiment. The supply - side changes in 2026 may affect the glass market, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [95][96][97]

四川鲁丽绿色数智家居产业园的生产线。高志农 摄 ●力争"十五五"末全市经济总量迈上2000亿元台阶 ●以建设"中国绿色铝都"为引领，继续做大做强"1+3+3"工业优势主导产业 ●基本建成全国绿色铝材加工基地、川陕甘渝原铝交易集散基地和川渝地区铝产业创新基地 ●实施原铝规模提能、产业链条提级、绿色创新提速等"五大工程" ●促进创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链"四链融合" 2025年12月，铝基新材料计量检定广元市重点实验室获批设立，标志着广元在强化铝基新材料首位产 业计量技术支撑方面迈出关键一步。 自2018年中孚、林丰等龙头企业相继落户，广元铝基新材料产业实现从无到有、从小到大的跃 升。"我们已发展出'绿色水电铝—铝精深加工—铝资源综合利用'全产业链闭环。"广元经开区相关负责人 介绍，"广元造"铝产品已覆盖汽摩零部件、铝板带箔等30余种终端品类。 数据显示，截至2025年底，广元已集聚相关企业超百家，预计2025年铝基新材料产业产值突破500亿 元，"首位产业"名副其实。 首位产业强势跃升，离不开项目招引的"广元速度"和"广元温度"。 "从签约到开工，仅用36天。"四川鲁丽木业有限公司总经理杨刚亲历的"广元速度 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhud ...