格隆汇12月24日｜华西证券研报指出，安井食品业绩已现拐点，景气度持续回升。公司作为速冻食品行 业龙头，依托多元化创新和渠道结构升级，成功穿越行业周期，展现出极强的增长与盈利恢复动能。公 司业绩已现拐点，经营持续修复，25Q3单季营收同比提升6.6%，归母净利润增速回正达到11.8%，毛利 率同比提升，盈利能力边际改善显著，叠加Q4旺季餐饮复苏、渠道补货顺畅及新品发力，业绩有望延 续好转态势。公司从"渠道驱动"转向"新品驱动"为主，形成锁鲜装、虾滑、烤肠为核心的大单品群，通 过核心单品迭代、品类结构优化突破行业内卷，提升盈利能力，同时冷冻烘焙、清真食品等战略新业务 蓄势待发。另外，公司在"BC兼顾，全渠发力"的渠道战略推动下，形成了以经销商为基本盘，特通、 商超、新零售及电商协同发展的全矩阵布局，有效分散风险并驱动增长。行业竞争趋缓，龙头优势稳 固，维持"买入"评级。 ...

2025年，供应链各个细分赛道在震荡中再度洗牌。成功者的路径或许相似，但失败的企业却各有各的不幸。 我们梳理了过去一年供应链企业的惨痛经历：有成立20多年的老牌企业，停工停产，创始人被现制高消费；有行业巨头，为了维持表面虚假繁荣而踩红 线，最终收到巨额罚款；还有曾经的赚钱"能手"被第二曲线拖累，苦苦挣扎。 在即将到来的2026年，面对这份来自前人的血泪教训，供应链企业也请自查、自检，莫要重蹈覆辙。 "水牛奶第一股"信披违规，收千万罚单 2025年3月，号称"水牛奶第一股"的皇氏集团收到一张巨额罚单，原因是连续多年在年报中隐瞒重大合同。依据证券法第一百九十七条第二款的规定，公 司及多位高管合计被罚1050万元。 一、对皇氏集团责令改正，给予警告，并处以400万元罚款； 四、对皇氏集团时任董事、副总裁兼皇氏数智法定代表人、执行董事、经理杨洪军给予警告，并处以150万元罚款； 五、对皇氏集团监事会主席石爱萍给予警告，并处以50万元罚款。 皇氏集团为何要隐瞒？业内人分析可能是担心这些重大承诺的披露会暴露其财务风险。 公开信息显示，皇氏集团成立于2001年，是一家以水牛奶特色乳品为核心、以光伏科技赋能乳业的综合性上市公 ...

安井食品 20251222 安井食品四季度业绩超预期，截至 12 月 22 日仍保持 10%的增长率， 尽管去年同期基数较高。政府补助对公司整体影响不大，因全国多基地 运营增加获得补贴和税收返还的概率。 公司战略从渠道驱动转向产品驱动，今年推出多款新品，多数达到或超 出预期。海外市场方面，东南亚速冻食品市场增长迅速，但 CR5 占比低， 存在巨大机会，公司计划通过并购当地品牌拓展欧美市场。 公司近期申请河南工厂，以清真食品为目标，瞄准西北市场和东南亚市 场。已购买"安斋"商标，计划将其打造成专门的清真食品品牌，并将 在马来西亚、印尼等地申请清真认证。 速冻食品行业正从充分竞争转向垄断竞争，安井食品销售增长和利润表 现优于同行。公司面临的主要挑战是持续创新，今年从渠道驱动转向新 品驱动，并叠加渠道驱动，希望新品能成为爆品。 今年推出 35 至 40 款新品，如活鱼现杀嫩鱼丸、多多多烤肠、嵊州小笼 包等。烤肠板块增长超过 60%，虾滑类产品增速最高，预计营收超 10 亿。明年将加大研发投入和激励机制，提高新品命中率。 Q&A 请介绍一下公司近期的经营动态和市场表现。 今年四季度对我们来说是一个利润高基数和收入不低 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haixin Food has postponed its fundraising project for deep processing of aquatic products and frozen dishes due to equipment installation delays, extending the completion date from December 2025 to June 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Project Delay and Financials - The fundraising project was initially planned to raise 376 million yuan (net amount of 365 million yuan) for the deep processing of aquatic products and to supplement working capital [1]. - As of now, 310 million yuan has been utilized from the raised funds, with the project experiencing delays attributed to equipment procurement and installation issues [1][2]. - The project had previously been postponed in November 2024 for similar reasons, indicating ongoing challenges in the construction process [1][2]. Group 2: Business Performance - In 2024, Haixin Food's revenue from frozen fish and meat products declined by 18.17%, while revenue from frozen dishes increased by 61.11% to 483 million yuan [3]. - However, in the first half of this year, sales and production volumes for frozen fish and meat products dropped by over 20%, and for frozen dishes, the decline exceeded 30% [3]. - For the first three quarters of this year, the company reported a revenue of 970 million yuan, a decrease of 15.05%, and a net loss of 28.19 million yuan, down 17.94% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Market and Industry Trends - The pre-made dish market is facing challenges, with consumer skepticism regarding safety and nutrition due to a lack of national standards [3]. - Many companies in the pre-made dish sector, including Guolian Aquatic Products and Huifa Foods, have reported declines in net profit, indicating a broader industry trend [6]. - The domestic consumption market remains stable, with many companies still in the process of digesting previously invested capacities, leading to delays or cancellations of expansion projects [5][6]. Group 4: Future Strategies - Haixin Food plans to optimize its product structure, focusing on high-margin and high-demand core categories while expanding sales channels [6]. - The company aims to enhance cost control across the entire process, from raw material procurement to logistics, to improve overall profitability [6].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector Outlook**: The consumer sector is expected to face challenges in the first half of 2026 due to the tapering of the trade-in policy, which may lead to a slowdown in durable goods consumption. However, service consumption is showing strong internal momentum, with growth expected in sectors like elderly care and home services, which may receive more policy support [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Consumer Data Trends**: In November 2025, retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, the lowest of the year, primarily due to the early Double Eleven promotions, the impact of the trade-in policy, and weakened consumer confidence due to falling housing prices [2][3]. - **Trade-in Policy Impact**: The decline in the trade-in policy is anticipated to negatively affect consumer spending in early 2026, particularly in durable goods like home appliances and automobiles, which are expected to see continued low growth [3][21]. - **Service Consumption Growth**: Service retail growth has increased from 4.9% at the beginning of the year to 5.4%, with significant contributions from education and dining sectors [4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on the AI industry and emerging sectors like pet economy and trendy toys. Real estate is expected to recover by 2026-2027, benefiting related industries [1][6][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **High-End Consumption and Travel Chain**: The service sector in 2026 will focus on high-end consumption and travel, with recommendations for companies in the duty-free, hotel, aviation, and dining sectors, such as China Duty Free Group and hotel chains like Jin Jiang and Huazhu [7]. - **Overseas Expansion Opportunities**: Companies like Anker Innovations and Huakai 100 are recommended for their potential in overseas markets, despite current low stock prices [9][10]. - **Alcohol and Beverage Sector**: The alcohol sector is currently in a low season, but some brands are seeing price recovery due to channel control measures. The soft drink market is also expected to show potential growth despite current sales being slow [11][12][13]. - **Food and Beverage Trends**: The snack sector is seeing positive demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with health-oriented products like konjac and oats showing significant growth. Companies like Wancheng and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for investment [12]. - **Investment in New Consumption Areas**: The new consumption sector is showing upward trends, particularly in the vaping and AI glasses markets, with companies like Smoore and Kangnai Optical recommended for their growth potential [16]. Conclusion - The consumer sector is navigating a complex landscape with both challenges and opportunities. The focus on service consumption, emerging sectors, and strategic investments in high-potential companies will be crucial for navigating the anticipated economic conditions in 2026.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for high-end liquor companies and recommends several key stocks in the food and beverage sector [6][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative for economic stability and security, with government agencies prioritizing this in 2026 [6][8]. - Despite recent price fluctuations in high-end liquor, the report anticipates a recovery in the sector, projecting a potential turning point in fundamentals by Q3 2026 [6][8]. - The report identifies systemic opportunities in consumer goods, particularly in the food sector, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.05% increase last week, with the liquor segment declining by 0.58% [5]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 13th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Segments - The report highlights the recent price movements of key liquor brands, including Moutai and Wuliangye, with Moutai's bottle price increasing by 45 RMB to 1545 RMB [7][30]. - Wuliangye is focusing on optimizing its product matrix and channel strategies to enhance long-term growth [7]. 3. Industry Matters - The report discusses the expected improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the dairy industry in 2026, recommending stocks like Yili and New Hope Dairy [8][9]. - It also notes the high dividend yield of Hai Tian Wei Ye, projecting a dividend payout of 17.54 billion RMB [9][26]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 20.10x, with a premium rate of 24% [30]. - The liquor segment's dynamic PE stands at 18.49x, with a premium rate of 14% [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand and consumption [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative for economic stability and security, with government agencies prioritizing this in their upcoming plans [3][8]. - Despite recent price fluctuations in high-end liquor, the report anticipates a recovery in the market, projecting a potential turning point in fundamentals by Q3 2026 [3][8]. - The report recommends several high-quality liquor companies for long-term investment, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting attention to other brands [3][8]. - For consumer goods, the report identifies opportunities in sectors like seasoning, frozen foods, and dairy, recommending companies such as Anjuke Foods, Yili, and QD Beer [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.05% increase last week, with liquor experiencing a slight decline of 0.58% [7]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 13th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [7]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report provides detailed price updates for major liquor brands, noting Moutai's bottle price at 1545 RMB, a week-on-week increase of 45 RMB, and Wuliangye's price remaining stable at approximately 780 RMB [9][35]. - The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to optimize their product matrices and channels to adapt to external pressures [9]. 3. Industry Matters - The report discusses the anticipated improvement in food CPI due to structural demand changes and a shift from price competition to quality competition among companies [3][8]. - It highlights the expected gradual recovery in the dairy sector, with recommendations for Yili and New Dairy [10][11]. 4. Valuation Table - The report notes the current dynamic PE for the food and beverage sector at 20.10x, with a premium rate of 24%, and for liquor at 18.49x, with a premium rate of 14% [35].

中信保诚多策略混合(LOF)A（165531）基金经理为王颖。 截至发稿，王颖累计任职时间8年309天，现任基金资产总规模49.04亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 53.8%， 任职期间最差基金回报-8.42%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 12月19日，海欣食品涨5.25%，截至发稿，报8.42元/股，成交5.52亿元，换手率14.66%，总市值46.79亿 元。 资料显示，海欣食品股份有限公司位于福建省福州市仓山区建新镇建新北路150号1#楼，成立日期2005 年4月22日，上市日期2012年10月11日，公司主营业务涉及速冻鱼糜制品、速冻肉制品为主的速冻食品 研发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：速冻鱼肉制品及肉制品60.76%，速冻菜肴制品25.32%，常 温休闲食品11.47%，速冻米面制品1.36%，其他1.10%。 从海欣食品十大流通股东角度 数据显示，中信保诚基金旗下1只基金位居海欣食品十大流通股东。中信保诚多策略混合( ...

近日，海欣食品发布公告，对"水产品精深加工及速冻菜肴制品项目"再度进行延期。募投项目延期背 后，是公司销售持续下滑， 产能利用率低至65%的现实。 经过持续扩张之后，海欣食品货币资金下降至7823.5万元，短期有息负债达到2.86亿元，现金短债比已 经低至0.27，面临较大的偿债压力。 另一方面，海欣食品传统的冻鱼肉制品和肉制品收入持续下滑，速冻菜肴（预制菜）收入的快速增长补 上了缺口。不过后者毛利率较低，2024年以来，费用率已经高于毛利率。如何在收缩背景下扭亏成了公 司面临的难题。 海欣食品募投项目再度延期 产能利用率低至65% 12月16日，海欣食品发布公告，称董事会审议通过议案，同意将募投项目"水产品精深加工及速冻菜肴 制品项目"达到预定可使用状态的日期进行调整，由2025年12月延长至2026年6月。 2023年海欣食品定增募资3.76亿元（募资净额3.65亿元），主要投向"水产品精深加工及速 冻菜肴制品 项目"。按照规划 ，该项目建成后将新增7.5万吨鱼、肉糜制品、2.5万吨速冻菜肴制品年产能。相较 2021年，整体产能扩产幅度达107%。 该项目原计划于2024年12月完成，2024年11月海欣 ...

风险 需求回暖慢于预期，原材料价格波动，子板块市场竞争加剧。 Text 正文 白酒：报表调整进入后段，板块或在上半年迎拐点 今年白酒行业需求延续弱景气，加上二季度新条例出台，白酒供需两端经历很大冲击，行业开始进入渠道库存去化，报表出清的调整后段，我们预计2026 年白酒报表有望出清改善，上行拐点逐步清晰。 需求端我们认为政策影响会持续减弱，消费场景在大幅压制的基础上会迎来稳步修复，同时促进消费政 策的深化有望驱动需求提升，收入在今年低基数下26年上半年同比有望转正，同时行业开始迎来梯次修复。供给端以创新拓展增量为主线，我们预计库存 隐患将基本解除，其中以用户需求为出发点的创新预计进一步增加，更多企业会拥抱即时零售等线上渠道。 研判一：从消费场景看，政策对政商务需求造成的负向冲击正边际弱化，加之宴席等大众需求偏刚性，1H25低基数背景下，2026年白酒动销或修复至同 比转正。 因外部政策冲击，政商务场景在今年二季度受损较深，且影响延续至下半年的中秋国庆旺季，我们估算全年白酒动销同比双位数以上下滑，政 策扰动延后了原先市场对行业基本面在2025年下半年筑底的判断。展望看，我们认为政策对于政商务需求的影响正边际弱化 ...