Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689) benefits from rapidly growing internal pulp supply, leading to significant cost advantages and improved profitability per ton of paper [1] Financial Performance - For the second half of the fiscal year ending June 30, the profit per ton of paper improved to 127 RMB, a substantial increase from 31 RMB in the first half and 53 RMB in the second half of the 2024 fiscal year [1] - Daiwa has raised the earnings per share estimates for the company for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 22% to 37% [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Nine Dragons Paper has been increased from 5 HKD to 5.7 HKD, while maintaining a "Hold" rating based on fair value considerations [1] Future Outlook - Management anticipates that the average price will stabilize and continue to improve profitability per ton of paper in the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Despite improved visibility for Nine Dragons Paper, the current price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for fiscal year 2026 is 10 times, which is close to the high end of the average level over the past decade, suggesting that investors should wait for a better buying opportunity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Yuegui Co., Ltd. is intensifying its investment in the mining sector by acquiring mining rights for quartzite in Guangdong Province, which aligns with the company's strategic development plan for sustainable growth [2][3] - Yuegui Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Jingyuan Mining, won the bidding for mining rights at a price of 222 million yuan, with a resource reserve of 18.163 million cubic meters and an annual production capacity of 2.6 million tons [2] - The company reported that its mining sector is the largest revenue source, contributing 39.59% of total income, with mining, sugar, paper, and chemical businesses generating revenues of 538 million yuan, 292 million yuan, 198 million yuan, and 186 million yuan respectively [3] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, Yuegui Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 1.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.29%, and a net profit of 234 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 72.99% [4] - The company's net profit has shown consistent growth over seven consecutive quarters, with notable increases in each quarter, including a staggering 163.26 times increase in one quarter [5] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 33.84% by the end of the first half of 2025, down from 37.61% in the same period of 2024, indicating better financial health [5]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中纸网） 9月24日，玖龙纸业发布截至2025年6月30日止年度全年业绩报告。报告显示，玖龙纸业自2024年7月1日 至2025年6月30日财年期间，营业收入为632.4亿元人民币，同比上一财年增长约6.3%；当期毛利润增长 约26.9%达到72.5亿元人民币。玖龙表示毛利润增幅扩大主要是因为原料成本降幅较产品价格降幅更大 更快。 与往年一样，玖龙纸业在财报期内继续推进新项目建设。据悉，该集团位于广西北海、湖北荆州的高端 造纸及原料配置扩产项目顺利投产。今年三季度，荆州、北海基地又分别有年产120万吨白卡纸及70万 吨木浆项目、年产40万吨文化纸项目投产。 目前，玖龙纸业在东莞、太仓、泉州、重庆、荆州、天津、河北、沈阳、乐山、北海共布局了十大生产 基地，产品涵盖牛卡纸、高价特种纸及浆产品、高强瓦楞芯纸、涂布灰底白板纸、白卡纸及文化用纸； 在美国的四家浆纸厂，主要生产单面涂布纸、铜版纸、特种纸等。 截至2025年6月30日止，玖龙纸业的纤维原料、造纸、包装年产能再创新高。其中，纤维原料年产能达 750万吨、造纸年设计产能达2350万吨；瓦楞纸板、纸箱年设计产能约29亿平方米。 在新的财年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited reported a significant increase in annual performance metrics, yet the stock price declined over 3% following the announcement, indicating market skepticism about future growth potential [1] Financial Performance - Sales volume increased by 9.6% to approximately 21.5 million tons [1] - Revenue rose by approximately 6.3% to 63.241 billion yuan [1] - Gross profit increased by approximately 26.9% to 7.245 billion yuan [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders surged by approximately 135.4% to 1.767 billion yuan [1] Future Capacity Expansion - The company plans to add 2.5 million tons of cultural paper and packaging paper capacity, along with 1.35 million tons of pulp capacity in the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Initial contributions from the increased capacity may be limited and could be offset by lower average pulp prices [1] Profitability Outlook - Citigroup's report suggests that as long as monthly profits remain above 200 million yuan, there is potential for further upward adjustments in profit forecasts for fiscal year 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's research report indicates that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings' net profit for the fiscal year ending June 2025 surged 135% year-on-year to 1.767 billion HKD, aligning with earlier guidance of 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank raised its earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027 by 12% to 16% due to better-than-expected performance [1] - The conservative estimate for the fiscal year ending June 2026 is a 43% year-on-year increase in profit to 2.529 billion HKD [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 6.2 HKD to 8 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Capacity Expansion - The group plans to add 2.5 million tons of cultural and packaging paper capacity and 1.35 million tons of pulp capacity in the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Initial contributions from the increased capacity may be limited and could be offset by lower average pulp prices [1] Group 3: Profitability and Sales Forecast - As long as monthly profits remain above 200 million HKD, there is potential for further upward adjustments in the profit forecast for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Sales volume for fiscal year 2026 is expected to grow approximately 9% to 23.5 million tons, with a projected net profit per ton of 108 HKD, down from 129 HKD in fiscal year 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The company, Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited, reported a 9.6% increase in sales volume to approximately 21.5 million tons for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - Revenue increased by approximately 6.3% to 63.241 billion yuan, driven by the increase in sales volume despite a 3.0% decrease in average selling price [1] - Gross profit rose by approximately 26.9% to 7.245 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to equity holders increasing by approximately 135.4% to 1.767 billion yuan, resulting in basic earnings per share of 0.38 yuan [1] Revenue and Profitability - Revenue growth was primarily attributed to a 9.6% increase in sales volume, offset by a 3.0% decline in average selling prices [1] - The gross margin improved from 9.6% in the fiscal year 2024 to approximately 11.5% in fiscal year 2025, mainly due to a larger decline in raw material costs compared to the decrease in product prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited reported significant growth in sales, revenue, and profits for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, indicating strong operational performance and improved profitability metrics [1]. Financial Performance - Sales volume increased by 9.6% to approximately 21.5 million tons [1] - Revenue rose by approximately 6.3% to RMB 63.2405 billion [1] - Gross profit increased by approximately 26.9% to RMB 7.2451 billion [1] - Net profit surged by approximately 177.3% to RMB 2.2017 billion [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders increased by approximately 135.4% to RMB 1.7671 billion [1] - Basic earnings per share rose by approximately 137.5% to RMB 0.38 [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross profit margin improved from 9.6% in the fiscal year 2024 to approximately 11.5% in fiscal year 2025 [1] - The increase in gross profit margin was primarily due to a larger decline in raw material costs compared to the decline in product prices [1]

Core Insights - The company, Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited, reported a 9.6% increase in sales volume to approximately 21.5 million tons for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025 [1] - Revenue rose by approximately 6.3% to 63.241 billion yuan, while gross profit increased by about 26.9% to 7.245 billion yuan [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders surged by approximately 135.4% to 1.767 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share at 0.38 yuan [1] Revenue and Sales Performance - The revenue growth was primarily driven by a 9.6% increase in sales volume, despite a net impact from a 3.0% decrease in average selling prices [1] - The gross profit margin improved from 9.6% in the fiscal year 2024 to approximately 11.5% in fiscal year 2025 [1] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The increase in gross profit margin was mainly due to a larger decline in raw material costs compared to the decrease in product selling prices [1]

高库存，高产量，纸价走势乏力 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 银河化工 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 ◼ 基本情况①价格：双胶纸产量20.5万吨，较上期增加1.0万吨，增幅5.1%，产能利用率55.7%，较上期上升2.8%。② 供应端：双胶纸产 量20.5万吨，较上期增加1.0万吨，增幅5.1%，产能利用率55.7%，较上期上升2.8%。行业盈利水平仍较低，工厂转产情况存在，部分 新增装置生产趋稳，行业货源供应有所增量。需求端疲弱：出版招标订单释放有限，零星低价压制市场预期。③针叶浆现货含税均价 5694元/吨，环比上期下降0.3 %；阔叶浆现货含税均价4189元/吨，环比上期持平。 【逻 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 22, 2025, was 5008.00 [3] - The closing prices from September 16 - 22, 2025, were 5068.00, 5042.00, 5014.00, 5018.00, and 5008.00 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.23734%, -0.51302%, -0.55534%, 0.07978%, and -0.19928% [3] - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 621.53, 619.23, 615.54, 615.64, and 614.20 [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on September 22, 2025, was 602, and values from September 16 - 21 were 582, 598, 611, 607 [3] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis on September 22, 2025, was 617, and values from September 16 - 21 were 612, 623, 636, 632 [3] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6200, and the import profit was - 136.75; for Canadian Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5410, and the import profit was - 510.04; for Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days), the port US - dollar price was 720, the Shandong region RMB price was 5610, and the import profit was - 244.70 [4] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From September 16 - 22, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively; the Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 [4] Group 4: Paper Index and Profit Margin - From September 17 - 22, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index) remained unchanged at 5725, 5670, 4350 respectively; the living paper index changed from 835 to 839 and then back to 835 [4] - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 22, 2025, were 1.9642%, 15.6172%, - 12.6135%, and 6.6876% respectively, with changes of - 0.0674, - 1.7680, - 0.0368, and - 0.3629 compared to September 17, 2025 [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - From September 16 - 22, 2025, the softwood - hardwood price spread changed from 1460 to 1370; the softwood - natural price spread changed from 250 to 210; the softwood - chemimechanical price spread changed from 1825 to 1785; the softwood - waste paper price spread changed from 4074 to 4034 [4]