Core Insights - The overall price index for Linyi Mall in the current month is 102.18 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.17 points (0.17% rise), a year-on-year decrease of 1.75 points (1.68% drop), and a decline of 1.66 points (1.60% drop) compared to the beginning of the year [1]. Price Index Summary - Among 14 categories of goods, 8 categories saw price increases, 3 remained stable, and 3 experienced price declines. The top two categories with price increases are steel and ceramics, while the top two categories with price declines are clothing and daily necessities [3]. Steel Category - The monthly price index for steel is 95.96 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.65 points. All subcategories, including construction steel, profiles, plates, and pipes, showed price increases. In November, steel prices fluctuated, with significant increases at the beginning of the month, followed by stability in the latter half. The rise in upstream raw material prices supported the cost side, leading to a slight increase in market steel prices. However, terminal demand remains weak, limiting the growth in sales volume [5]. Ceramics Category - The monthly price index for ceramics is 106.44 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.58 points. The indices for sanitary ceramics and architectural ceramics increased by 2.41 points and 0.06 points, respectively, while daily ceramics saw a price decline. Seasonal changes and reduced construction activities have led to a seasonal sales slump for products like toilets and tiles. However, increased wedding activities and a recovering catering industry have boosted demand for daily ceramics, resulting in a slight increase in sales volume and revenue [7]. Clothing and Accessories Category - The monthly price index for clothing and accessories is 102.71 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.21 points. Both clothing and accessories categories experienced declines of 0.43 points and 0.12 points, respectively. The market showed a "rise then fall" pattern in November, with strong demand for winter products in the first half of the month due to significant temperature drops. However, the early "Double Eleven" promotions drained consumer demand, leading to a decline in sales for children's and women's clothing in the latter half of the month [8][13]. Daily Necessities Category - The monthly price index for daily necessities is 102.77 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.04 points. Significant price drops were observed in bags, personal care and beauty products, and toys. The decline in prices is primarily driven by a notable drop in bag sales, while other categories like labor protection tools and kitchenware saw stable prices due to increased wholesale volumes [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Group 1 - The national production material market prices remained stable from November 24 to 30, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] - Basic chemical raw material prices generally increased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash rising by 2.6%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while polypropylene decreased by 0.7% [2] - Steel prices saw slight increases, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3349 yuan, 3535 yuan, and 3493 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea prices were flat compared to the previous week, while compound fertilizer rose by 0.3% [3] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced minor fluctuations, with zinc and copper increasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while aluminum decreased by 0.4% [4] - Rubber prices saw a slight decline, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber dropping by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively [5] Group 3 - Coal prices experienced a slight decrease, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 789 yuan and 1069 yuan per ton, declining by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while smokeless lump coal increased by 0.1% [5] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline dropping by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [6]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.6% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.72 yuan per kilogram, rising by 1.8%, with cauliflower, cabbage, and zucchini increasing by 11.3%, 7.6%, and 6.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and bananas rising by 3.8%, 1.2%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with silver carp, grass carp, and yellow croaker rising by 1.2%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices remained stable, with eggs increasing by 0.1% and broiler chickens decreasing by 0.1% [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with peanut oil and rapeseed oil increasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while rice and flour remained stable, and soybean oil decreased by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.21 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.4%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash rising by 2.6%, 0.9%, and 0.1% respectively, while polypropylene decreased by 0.7% [2] - Steel prices slightly increased, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3349 yuan, 3535 yuan, and 3493 yuan per ton, rising by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea remained unchanged while compound fertilizer rose by 0.3% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with zinc and copper increasing by 0.3% and 0.2%, while aluminum decreased by 0.4% [2] - Rubber prices slightly declined, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber decreasing by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Coal prices slightly decreased, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 789 yuan and 1069 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.5% and 0.4%, while anthracite coal increased by 0.1% to 1168 yuan per ton [2] - Wholesale prices of refined oil slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.6%, and 0.5% respectively [2]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue narrowing in January. The long - position rebar and short - position iron ore arbitrage in the January contract can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China remained at 3300 yuan/ton, while the 01 contract price increased by 11 yuan/ton to 3148 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remained unchanged at 2990 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 2 yuan/ton to 3247 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.0 tons to 232.0 tons, a decline of 0.9%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 26.8 tons to 829.0 tons, a decline of 3.1% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 35.2 tons to 1365.6 tons, a decline of 2.5%. The rebar inventory decreased by 27.7 tons to 503.8 tons, a decline of 5.2% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.4 to 9.4, a rise of 4.5%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 23.8 tons to 864.2 tons, a decline of 2.7% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate between 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Although the supply has increased and the demand has decreased, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream restocking and basis repair, the price will not drop significantly [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore types decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás Fine decreased by 6.6 yuan/ton to 796.7 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.0 yuan/ton to - 41.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.8% [3]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port decreased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás Fine at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%, while the global shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, a rise of 1.4% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0%. The 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, a rise of 1.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, a rise of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures are expected to oscillate between 1550 - 1700 yuan/ton. The supply - demand relationship has weakened, but the futures have basically over - discounted the spot price cut expectations, and the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coke increased by 27 yuan/ton to 1652 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.8 tons to 64.5 tons, a rise of 1.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 tons to 46.6 tons, a rise of 0.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.4 tons to 232.3 tons, a decline of 1.0% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.7 tons to 883.0 tons. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 4.7 tons to 76.4 tons, a rise of 6.5% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 tons to - 2.5 tons, a rise of 74.2% [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1150 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak state, with supply and demand both showing certain changes, and the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be recommended [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 01 contract price of coking coal increased by 21 yuan/ton to 1092 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decline of 0.3%. The clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in pig iron output and the weakening of market restocking demand [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, a rise of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.1 tons to 1009.2 tons, a decline of 0.1% [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading opportunities for A - share index futures are limited due to low trading volume and volatility [2]. - The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September, and the allocation value of bonds within 10 years is relatively improved. The 30 - year bonds may be oversold under emotional drive. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees [2]. - Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits [2]. - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - For steel, it is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage. Iron ore is in high - level consolidation, and coking coal and coke are also in a consolidation state [2]. - Copper prices are rising again, and aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals [2][3]. - For new energy and chemical products, different products have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited [3]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different market situations, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different trends, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share index futures have low trading volume and volatility, and the short - term trading space is limited. The dividend sector is firm, and the index futures are trading weakly [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The current interest rate is approaching the high level before the end of September. The 30 - year bonds are relatively weak, and the short - term market driver may come from the policy expectation difference. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy and focus on the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The positive arbitrage strategy for the 2603 contract is recommended for the spot - futures strategy [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a consolidation phase near $4200, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. Silver is oscillating strongly and may reach $60. Investors are advised to lock in profits after accumulating floating profits. Platinum and palladium should be traded with a short - term high - selling and low - buying strategy, and the long - platinum and short - palladium hedge should take profits at high levels [2]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. It is recommended to focus on the long - rebar and short - iron ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment is increasing, the arrival is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. It is in high - level consolidation, with the range from 750 to 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The price reduction range of coal in the production area is expanding, and the price of Mongolian coal is stable. The futures price is falling again, with the range from 1050 to 1150, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trading price is falling. It is in a consolidation state, with the range from 1550 to 1700, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [2]. Non - Ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warehouse receipts are increasing significantly, and copper prices are rising again. The short - term decline space is limited [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are rising with increased positions. Different trading strategies are recommended for aluminum, waste aluminum, and aluminum alloy, with corresponding price ranges [2][3]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: For zinc, supply reduction and interest - rate cut expectations provide support, but the spot trading is dull [4]. For other non - ferrous metals such as tin, nickel, and stainless steel, different market trends and trading suggestions are provided [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **New Energy**: Different new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as polysilicon futures rising while the spot price is stable [3]. - **Chemical Products**: Different chemical products have different market situations, such as PX having strong support in the medium - term, while PTA's rebound space is limited. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different energy and chemical products such as LLDPE, PP, and methanol have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as LLDPE's trading volume weakening significantly and PP's supply having an upward expectation [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as palm oil, sugar, and cotton have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions, such as palm oil falling due to potential inventory growth and sugar oscillating weakly [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a macro - policy vacuum period, but there may be expectations later. The fundamentals show that last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar closed flat and hot - rolled coils closed down. They also closed down at night [1] Important Information - In October 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22%. In October, China's stainless - steel imports were 124,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons or 3.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 34,100 tons or 21.56%. From January to October, the total stainless - steel imports were 1.2621 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 343,000 tons or 21.37%. In October, the domestic stainless - steel exports were 358,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,400 tons or 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 59,300 tons or 14.2%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 4.1408 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons or 0.04%. In October, China's stainless - steel apparent consumption was 3.0459 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons or 4.68% [1] - Chinalco Group: The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent, carrying 200,000 tons of iron ore [1] - On December 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,320 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 29 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton [1] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in November, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.263 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the new - energy market retail sales were 1.354 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the new - energy market retail penetration rate was 59.8% [1] Market Logic - In the macro - policy vacuum period, there may be expectations later. Fundamentally, last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations. The main contract has been rolled over to the May contract. The resistance level of the rebar 2605 contract is 3,200, and the strong support level is around 3,050. It is not recommended to chase long for now [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Core Insights - The overall price index of Linyi Mall increased slightly to 102.38 points this week, reflecting a marginal week-on-week rise of 0.01 points, but a year-on-year decline of 1.50 points [1] Price Index Summary - **Household Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment**: The price index rose to 103.03 points, up by 0.08 points week-on-week, driven by increased sales of personal appliances like foot baths and hair dryers, despite slower sales of air conditioners and kitchen appliances [5] - **Building and Decoration Materials**: The index increased to 106.17 points, up by 0.08 points week-on-week, influenced by rising aluminum prices, although overall market demand remains weak due to lower temperatures [8] - **Steel**: The index reached 95.99 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.02 points, but the market is experiencing seasonal slowdowns in construction activity, leading to reduced purchasing enthusiasm [10] - **Clothing and Accessories**: The index fell to 103.64 points, down by 0.02 points week-on-week, with notable price drops in footwear, although there was an increase in wholesale transactions for certain apparel items [13] - **Cultural and Office Supplies**: The index decreased to 108.63 points, down by 0.01 points week-on-week, as demand weakened and inventory levels were reduced by distributors [16] - **Daily Necessities**: The index dropped to 102.77 points, down by 0.01 points week-on-week, with price declines in various categories, although some items like jewelry saw price increases [19] Price Index Table Summary - The overall price index increased from 102.37 to 102.38 points, with various categories showing mixed results in price changes [21]