Core Viewpoint - Short-term fluctuations in A-shares are primarily influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, but A-shares are expected to resonate upward with global markets as US AI core company stock prices stabilize and the impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike is limited [1] Industry Focus - Key industry focus areas include non-ferrous metals (silver, copper, tin, tungsten), high dividend stocks in Hong Kong, non-bank financials, AI (liquid cooling, optical communication), new energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries), innovative pharmaceuticals, and banking [1] Thematic Focus - Thematic investment areas to pay attention to are Hainan (duty-free), nuclear power, and ice and snow tourism [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - International oil prices have reached multi-year lows, leading to heightened market risk aversion, with LME tin closing at $40,955 per ton, down $140, a decrease of 0.34% [1] - Domestic tin futures in Shanghai showed a significant increase, with the main contract 2601 closing at ¥323,220 per ton, up ¥210, an increase of 0.07% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a slowdown, as evidenced by the U.S. November non-farm payrolls adding only 64,000 jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in three years, reinforcing expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains structurally tight, with major mineral-producing countries facing production constraints and slow recovery in some regions, while trade policy adjustments in major exporting countries affect resource flow [2] - Demand is transitioning between old and new drivers, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics entering a seasonal lull, while emerging sectors such as AI hardware and advanced packaging show structural growth potential [2] - Current price levels are exerting pressure on downstream demand, leading some companies to seek process optimization and material substitution to control costs, resulting in a situation where consumption is present but not robust [2] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The tin industry is facing challenges of profit contraction and price transmission blockage, with the market's core conflict shifting from "supply shortage" to whether high prices can be supported by end-user demand [3] - The industry landscape is transitioning from a tight balance to a fragile marginal surplus, intensifying competition among players [3] Group 4: Company Insights - Key companies in the tin industry have established differentiated advantages based on their resources and market positions, with Xiyang Tin Co. leveraging its strong metal resource reserves to create a complete industrial system from upstream resources to downstream high-end manufacturing [4] - Xiyang Tin's product line extends to high-value areas such as photovoltaic solder strips and advanced packaging solder, demonstrating strong profit growth and a solid market position [4] - Xingye Silver Tin focuses on resource development, benefiting from superior mineral resources and leading mining costs, with its performance directly linked to the price increase cycle of resource products [4] Group 5: Price Forecast - The cautious macro sentiment is expected to dominate, with ongoing supply-side disturbances, leading to a potential rebound in tin prices today [4]

Price Trends - Current tin price is reported at 332,500-334,500 CNY per ton, with an average of 333,500 CNY per ton, reflecting an increase of 8,000 CNY per ton (+2.46%) from the previous day, continuing a strong upward trend [1] - The short-term trend indicates a confirmed upward channel with prices consistently rising, supported by a strong performance in the futures market, where the main contract for tin reached 334,220 CNY per ton, up 2.63% [1] - Global supply is under significant pressure due to geopolitical conflicts in major production areas and tightening policies in resource-rich countries, leading to a high level of uncertainty in over 20% of global supply [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is shifting from "sudden disruptions" to "systemic constraints," with clear limitations on supply growth due to declining ore grades and rising costs in global mining [2] - Demand is experiencing a structural divergence, with traditional consumer electronics facing a cyclical downturn while high-end demands from AI hardware and electric vehicles are on the rise, creating a tug-of-war between declining traditional demand and the long-term potential of emerging sectors [2] Industry Chain Response - The upstream resource sector maintains strong bargaining power, focusing on resource integration and technological innovation to ensure long-term supply stability [3] - The midstream smelting sector is under significant pressure, caught between high raw material costs and the price acceptance of downstream markets, leading to a focus on optimizing capacity and extending into high-value-added products [3] - Major companies are adopting differentiated strategies to solidify their positions, with leading firms leveraging resource reserves and global expansion, while others focus on technological upgrades and high-end product development [3] Short-term Outlook for Tin Prices - Tin prices are currently at historical highs, with market dynamics shifting from a "one-way increase" to a "bull-bear contest," indicating a phase of high volatility and potential price fluctuations [4] - Market participants are advised to monitor inventory levels, actual policy implementations in major producing countries, and marginal changes in downstream purchasing intentions, suggesting a range-based approach to trading [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

近期锡价开启连续上行模式，沪锡主力合约一举突破33万元关口，创2022年3月以来新高，市场看涨情 绪浓厚。这一轮上涨并非单一因素驱动，而是地缘冲突升级、矿端供应瓶颈难破、低库存支撑以及资金 情绪助推等多重力量交织的结果。 近期，刚果（金）东部的地缘局势急剧恶化，成为锡价飙升的重要推手。位于刚果（金）北基伍省的 Bisie矿是全球第三大锡矿（由Alphamin Resources运营），2024年产量达17300吨，占全球锡矿供应量的 约6%，占刚果（金）全国锡矿产量的超80%。Bisie锡矿的生产稳定性多次受到其国内武装叛乱组 织"M23"的影响，2025年3月，由于武装冲突逼近矿区，Bisie锡矿一度停产，后于4月中旬逐步恢复运 营。11月以来，刚果（金）东部安全形势再次恶化，战火逼近Bisie矿区范围，Alphamin面临二次停产 风险。中国驻刚果（金）使馆紧急提醒，要求中国公民和企业立即撤离东部高危省份。12月4日，尽管 刚果（金）总统齐塞克迪与卢旺达总统卡加梅已在华盛顿签署和平协议，但受武装团体未完成解除武 装、矿产资源利益分配争议等因素制约，协议实际约束力有限，且协议签署后，刚果（金）政府武装与 " ...

Supply Side - In October 2025, domestic tin ore imports increased to 11,600 tons (approximately 5,050 metal tons), a month-on-month rise of 33.49% but a year-on-year decline of 22.54% [1] - Cumulative imports from January to October reached 103,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [1] - Tin ingot imports in October were 526 tons, down 58.55% month-on-month and 82.72% year-on-year, with cumulative imports for the year at 16,552 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.84% [1] - Imports from Congo (DRC) showed a recovery, while imports from Myanmar slightly declined but are expected to increase by over 2,000 tons in November due to mining permit approvals [1] Production Side - November's refined tin production is expected to remain stable, with Yunnan and Jiangxi's smelting enterprises maintaining high operating rates [2] - Yunnan's large smelting plants have resumed operations after seasonal maintenance, while Jiangxi faces a shortage of recycled raw materials, leading to lower production levels [2] - Overall, production recovery is constrained by raw material supply bottlenecks and weak demand, with no significant short-term increase in operating levels anticipated [2] Demand Side - The semiconductor industry continues to show resilience, with tin solder enterprises maintaining stable operating rates; November production increased by 0.95% month-on-month [4] - Southern China’s tin solder manufacturers are performing better due to their integration into emerging sectors like automotive and AI servers, which have robust order expectations [4] - In contrast, Eastern China’s tin solder enterprises are facing pressure due to slower order recovery in traditional consumer electronics, leading to weaker trading sentiment [4] Price Outlook - The tin market is currently in a tight balance, with improved supply from increased domestic imports in October, although concerns remain due to worsening conflicts in Congo affecting transport [10] - Traditional sectors like consumer electronics show signs of fatigue, while long-term demand from new sectors like electric vehicles and AI servers supports tin prices [10] - As Myanmar's tin ore supply gradually increases and demand weakens slightly, the supply-demand situation is expected to improve, potentially putting pressure on tin prices [10]

Core Insights - The global tin mining projects are primarily concentrated in 2027 and beyond, with domestic contributions mainly from Yinman Phase II and overseas from Africa and Europe [1][2] - Global tin production is projected to be 283,000 tons in 2025, 308,000 tons in 2026, and 312,000 tons in 2027, while demand is expected to rise to 386,000 tons, 396,000 tons, and 401,000 tons respectively during the same period [1][3] - A significant shortage of refined tin is anticipated in 2025, leading to potential price increases due to resource scarcity and rising extraction costs [1][4] Group 1: Tin Resource and Production - Tin is an essential minor metal with increasing resource scarcity, characterized by low melting point and good conductivity, making it irreplaceable in solder applications [1] - As of the end of 2024, global tin resources are estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a production of 300,000 tons, and the global reserve-to-production ratio has decreased from approximately 20 years in 2010 to 14 years in 2024 [1] - The distribution of global tin resources is concentrated in a few countries, with China, Myanmar, Australia, Russia, Brazil, and Bolivia holding 76.5% of the total reserves [1] Group 2: Supply Challenges - Global tin supply has been stable around 300,000 tons, but declining ore grades and various unforeseen factors have led to a decrease in supply [2] - China's tin production has been declining since 2015 due to lower ore grades and stricter environmental regulations, while Indonesia faces challenges from declining ore grades and increased mining costs [2] - Myanmar's tin production has been affected by systematic declines in ore grades and production halts due to local conflicts, with a significant impact on global supply [2] Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The semiconductor sector continues to show growth, positively impacting tin demand, with refined tin demand from solder applications exceeding 50% [3] - The demand for tin in chemical applications and tinplate is also expected to grow, with PVC production in China projected to increase [3] - Overall, global tin demand is expected to rise steadily, with projections of 386,000 tons in 2025, 396,000 tons in 2026, and 401,000 tons in 2027 [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - A refined tin supply gap of approximately 16,000 tons is expected in 2025, which may narrow in subsequent years as Myanmar resumes production and new projects come online [4] - The ongoing decline in ore grades and relatively low capital expenditures are likely to exacerbate resource scarcity, leading to further price increases [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In November, tin prices continued to strengthen under the influence of supply disturbances at the mine end, reaching a new high for the year. Although the current demand in the tin market is weak, with low downstream inventories and limited bargaining power, supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Therefore, it is more likely that tin prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was slightly alleviated. However, the recent deterioration of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has disrupted tin ore transportation, raising market concerns. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has been slow, with low export volumes. Smelting enterprises in Yunnan still face a shortage of raw materials, and their short - term operating rates are stable but lack further upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap materials, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and refined tin production remains at a low level. Overall, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two regions will be difficult to further improve in the short term [11][12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in October. In October, the domestic integrated circuit output was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Recently, due to the large short - term price increase, downstream acceptance is limited, and inventories have increased significantly. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major Chinese regions was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented [17][19][20]. 3.3 Cost Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the monthly output of Chinese tin ore, import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [22][24][26]. 3.4 Supply Side No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin production and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [28][30][32][36][38][39]. 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [45]. - No specific text analysis content provided for other indicators, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell output and photovoltaic installation, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic apparent tin consumption [42][44][47][49][51][53][55][57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) No specific text analysis content provided, only relevant data graphs are presented, including Chinese social inventory and LME inventory [59][60][61].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the global tin industry, highlighting supply constraints and geopolitical risks affecting production and pricing dynamics. The primary countries involved are China, Indonesia, and Myanmar, which collectively account for over 50% of global tin supply [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Constraints**: The tin supply is under pressure due to a combination of factors, including the ban on mining in Myanmar, geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and slow recovery in production from Myanmar. The DRC's conflict has led to production halts, particularly at the Alpha Mining's Bich project, exacerbating supply chain risks [1][6][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The tin price has been driven up by tight supply and differentiated demand. While traditional electronics demand is weak, emerging sectors like AI and semiconductors are showing some growth. Additionally, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are supporting current tin prices [2][7]. - **Global Supply Structure**: The global tin supply is concentrated in China and Indonesia, which together account for nearly 50% of refined tin production. The recovery in Myanmar is slower than expected, and the DRC's geopolitical issues limit new production capacity, making it difficult to offset declines from traditional sources [3][11]. - **Inventory Levels**: Both global and Chinese tin inventories are at low levels, with China's social inventory around 7,000 to 8,000 tons and LME inventory dropping to a low of 2,145 tons. This low inventory status is a significant factor supporting current market prices [12][15]. - **Future Price Predictions**: The tin market is expected to remain in a tight balance from 2026 to 2027, with supply expected to be less than demand. The ongoing geopolitical risks and slow recovery in production will continue to support prices, although demand shifts from traditional electronics to AI and semiconductors may not fully compensate for declines in other areas [16][21]. Additional Important Insights - **Myanmar's Mining Policy Changes**: Myanmar's Wa region has implemented a tax reform that unifies export taxes at 15%, with expectations of monthly exports recovering to 8,000-10,000 tons by November 2025, although this is still below historical levels [5]. - **Impact of DRC's Conflict**: The DRC's conflict has heightened market tensions, with production and transportation risks increasing due to security concerns. The cancellation of peace talks has further escalated these risks, leading to uncertainty in the supply chain [6][8]. - **Changes in China's Import Structure**: China's reliance on Myanmar for tin imports has significantly decreased from 72%-85% before 2023 to an expected 24%-30% by 2025, with gaps being filled by supplies from Africa and South America [9]. - **Challenges for Smelters**: Chinese smelters are facing historical lows in processing fees, with strict environmental regulations increasing costs. This has led to survival pressures for smaller smelting operations, necessitating close monitoring of industry dynamics [14][17]. - **Demand Shifts**: The demand for tin is transitioning from traditional sectors to emerging technologies, with AI and semiconductor industries expected to drive some growth. However, the overall demand may decline if these sectors do not expand sufficiently [13][21]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing conflict in the DRC and its potential impact on tin production and transportation remain a critical concern for market stability. The situation is fluid, and any escalation could lead to significant price volatility [24][25].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai Tin (SHFE Tin) showed an overall oscillatory trend. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation in futures prices and basis during the period [11]. - Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August totaled 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, remaining stable. The resumption of mining production in Myanmar has repeatedly affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC maintained good growth, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. It is expected that the demand in emerging sectors will remain resilient in October, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the interference of the ore end [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy remains resilient, and the prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. generally maintains an upward trend. Overseas uncertainties are still high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The ore end situation is unstable. In terms of operation, those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions, and conduct light - position long - biased trading, with the weekly support level around 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE Tin oscillated last week. On November 7, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 283,750 yuan/ton, with little change in futures prices and basis [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production in September was 9,770 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year, expected to recover in October. Domestic tin ore production from January to August was 50,200 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption of mining in Myanmar affected price points [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will be adjusted. The tariff adjustment on US - originated goods and the decline in China's October PMI are also factors [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are declining, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE inventories increased slightly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to supply shortages, domestic economic resilience, and overseas uncertainties, heavy - position holders can reduce positions, conduct light - position long - biased trading with a support level of 273,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mining disturbances, Indonesian export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors Analysis**: Production has a neutral impact as the ore supply is expected to ease; downstream demand is bullish as the industry demand outlook is positive; inventory is bullish due to inventory depletion; imports and exports are neutral with stable net exports; market sentiment is bearish; cost and profit are neutral with low processing fees; and the macro - environment is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no specific analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,865 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week. As of November 5, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,975 tons, also increasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 31, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 7,698 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of November 6, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan's refined ore was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton, continuing to be weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin production was 9,770 tons, significantly decreasing month - on - month due to major factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal supply in October. Domestic tin ore production in August was 6,854.21 tons, increasing slightly month - on - month [40]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [47]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer production was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [51]. - In October 2025, China's PVC production was 2.1281 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [54]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In September 2025, China's refrigerator production was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [58]. - In September 2025, China's washing - machine production was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, China's color TV production was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [62]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy production was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In September 2025, China's integrated circuit production was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [66]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [71]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing China's and overseas production, global supply, China's and overseas demand, and global supply - demand balance. For example, in 2025E, China's production is expected to be 184,500 tons, overseas production 185,000 tons, global supply 369,500 tons, China's demand 193,000 tons, overseas demand 186,000 tons, and the global supply - demand balance is - 9,500 tons [74].