Core Viewpoint - The nickel industry is facing increasing challenges related to waste management, highlighted by a major Chinese-controlled smelter in Indonesia reducing production due to its tailings storage nearing capacity [1] Industry Summary - The Indonesian nickel industry is under pressure as nickel ore supply struggles to keep pace with the rapid expansion of smelting capacity, leading several smelters to warn of potential production halts [1] - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, indicated that the industry is experiencing significant stress due to these supply-demand imbalances [1] Company Summary - Company has established a comprehensive nickel product service system covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1] - The company has signed long-term trade and supply agreements with mining enterprises in the Philippines and Indonesia, securing its position in the upstream market [1] - The company’s smelting capacity on OBI Island in Indonesia totals 400,000 metric tons of nickel, with potential for future expansion in the Indonesian nickel industry chain, which could drive performance and valuation increases [1]

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight [1][2] - Indonesia, holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves, is facing a supply-demand imbalance as domestic nickel ore supply has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of smelting facilities [1][2] - The country is projected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with expectations to increase to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 [1] - The nickel price may surge due to tight supply, leading to high production costs and potential shutdowns of smelting plants, which could also hinder investments in Indonesia's battery and electric vehicle sectors [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a significant player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the effective period of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid increasing demand from smelting plants [2] - The imbalance between mineral supply and industrial demand is worsening due to the rapid expansion of smelting facilities and the shortened planning cycle for mining operations [2] - To alleviate the tight nickel ore supply, Arif urged the Indonesian government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelting plants and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities [2] - A solid upstream planning is essential to avoid the absurd situation of relying on imported nickel ore, ensuring that local industries in this resource-rich country do not face raw material shortages [2]

Core Insights - The chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), Arif Perdanakusumah, warned that several nickel smelters in Indonesia may halt production if nickel ore supply remains tight, despite Indonesia holding about 45% of the world's nickel reserves [1][2] - Indonesia is expected to import over 10.4 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024, with projections rising to approximately 15 million tons in 2025 due to increased demand from smelters [1] - The nickel export ban implemented in 2020 has significantly attracted investments in Indonesia's downstream nickel industry, with smelting capacity expected to reach 1.8 million tons of secondary nickel and about 395,000 tons of primary nickel by 2024, a substantial increase from just 250,000 tons of secondary nickel in 2017 [1] Industry Dynamics - Indonesia currently holds over 60% of the global nickel market share, becoming a key player in the stainless steel and battery materials sectors [2] - The government has shortened the validity of mining production quotas (RKAB) from three years to one year, tightening domestic supply amid soaring demand from smelters [2] - Arif urged the government to prioritize the approval of RKAB applications for mines associated with smelters and to enhance exploration efforts and mining technology capabilities to address the supply-demand imbalance [2] Price Trends - As of the latest assessment, the price of Indonesian nickel pig iron with 10% nickel content is $108.50 per ton, reflecting a decrease of $0.50 per ton from the previous day and a drop of $5.6 per ton since November 3 [2]

Group 1 - A major nickel smelter in Indonesia, controlled by Chinese investors, is reducing production due to its tailings storage nearing capacity, highlighting the industry's waste management challenges [1] - The production cut by PT QMB New Energy Materials Co. Ltd. is expected to last at least two weeks, with the company being backed by investors such as GEM Co. and Tsingshan Holding Group [1] - The Morowali Industrial Park, where the smelter is located, is Indonesia's largest nickel industrial base, and the facility's tailings storage is close to saturation while new storage approvals are still pending [1] Group 2 - Regulatory scrutiny of the nickel industry in Indonesia is increasing, driven by environmental concerns related to waste management [2] - Experts question the long-term safety and sustainability of the high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) process in Indonesia, especially after a fatal landslide incident earlier this year [2] Group 3 - High-pressure acid leaching producers are facing rising sulfur procurement costs, which is essential for sulfuric acid production [3] - Despite cost pressures, demand for nickel-cobalt hydroxide products has strengthened this year, largely due to cobalt export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] Group 4 - Nickel has underperformed in a year where base metals are generally weak, with oversupply putting continuous pressure on prices and squeezing industry profitability [4] - A report from Deutsche Bank indicates that the market is experiencing oversupply due to a surge in production, particularly from Indonesia, with global primary nickel production expected to grow by 8% this year [4] - There is potential for a significant price rebound if Indonesia implements effective production controls, as stricter regulations could lead to rapid price increases similar to recent trends in other base metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have broken down due to a combination of supply-demand imbalances and pessimistic demand expectations, with projections indicating a potential price drop to around 100,000-110,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [1][30]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Conditions - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend since November, breaking key support levels and reaching the lowest prices in nearly three years [3][4]. - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a persistent oversupply in the market, particularly in the refined nickel segment, exacerbated by weak demand in the stainless steel sector [5][11]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The nickel industry is facing significant oversupply, with refined nickel production in China maintaining a high growth rate of around 33% over the past two years, while downstream demand remains limited [11][12]. - Current inventories of refined nickel are at elevated levels, nearing the highs seen during periods of low demand in 2020 [15][28]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential policy disruptions from resource countries, the likelihood of significant reductions in nickel ore production is low, maintaining a bearish outlook for prices [28][30]. - The anticipated increase in high-nickel solid-state battery production is not expected until 2027, further complicating the demand recovery for refined nickel [1][17]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A bearish strategy is recommended, with opportunities for selling out-of-the-money call options following the recent rapid price decline [2][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar index is expected to decline, and nickel prices may rise. Macroscopically, although there are significant differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in December, the Challenger job - cut figures released in October soared, indicating a cooling labor market and increasing the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The rising expectation of an interest rate cut may cause the relatively high US dollar index to decline, which is beneficial for nickel prices. Fundamentally, the nickel ore price will remain at an absolute high due to the rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines and the impact of extreme weather, providing strong cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still at the bottom due to the drag of the real - estate market, while the new - energy market may drive nickel demand. Supply in China is expected to remain high due to the ramping - up of new production capacity. Overall, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but the expected decline of the US dollar index may boost nickel prices [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week | Variety | Price on 2025/11/7 | Price on 2025/10/31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119,440 | 120,590 | - 1,150 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15,060 | 15,226 | - 166 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 253,104 | 252,102 | 1,002 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 32,634 | 31,388 | 1,246 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,100 | 2,550 | 550 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 450 | 150 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 933 | 937 | - 4 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 86.3 | 85.8 | 0.45 | Ten thousand tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: The US dollar index first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the contraction of US dollar liquidity, while the sharp decline at the end of the week was caused by the significant increase in the Challenger job - cut figures in October, which raised the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December. Federal Reserve officials have different views on the pace of interest rate cuts in December. The manufacturing PMI in October decreased slightly, and the composite index has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The employment data showed that the ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, and the Challenger job - cut figures reached 153,000 [5]. - **Industry - level**: - **Nickel Ore**: Affected by extreme weather in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore may tighten, and the price remains at an absolute high. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is 50 US dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly to 38.55 US dollars/wet ton [3][6]. - **Refined Nickel**: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import volume of refined nickel in September increased significantly, mainly from Russia. The export volume also increased year - on - year. As of October 31, the spot import loss of refined nickel slightly expanded [6][7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) decreased by about 0.7% this week. In October, the production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia increased. As of November 6, the upstream and downstream inventories of nickel iron increased, the integrated inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The market expects that the production of 300 - series stainless steel in November will change little. As of November 6, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, dragging down the consumption of stainless steel, and the traditional demand market is difficult to improve significantly [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In October, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased significantly. The profit margins of some production processes of nickel sulfate improved. In the new - energy market, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, there is a risk of a decline in demand after the expiration of the purchase - tax window period [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 9,029 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,246 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,002 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 2,248 tons [11][13]. 3.3 Industry News - Zeb Nickel obtained the mining license in South Africa and plans to start nickel ore development in 2026, with an expected annual production of 20,000 tons of nickel concentrate [14]. - The side - blown melting furnace of Jinchuan Nickel - Cobalt Smelter completed maintenance and was successfully ignited, marking the end of the flash - furnace system maintenance and the start of a new production cycle [14]. - SMGA, a subsidiary of Sumber Global Energy, entered the nickel smelting business, planning to produce nickel matte and develop a converter nickel - smelting facility using the OESBF technology [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will be in a volatile state. The price of nickel ore at the raw material end remains high, and with the coming of the rainy season in the Philippines, the shipment volume of nickel ore is hindered, and mines have a strong attitude to hold prices. The fundamentals of pure nickel remain weak, but short - term macro - sentiment may still be priced in, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - The short - term stainless steel market is operating weakly. The downward shift of cost support and the imbalance between supply and demand jointly suppress steel prices. After the "Silver October" peak season, downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand and resist high - priced resources, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 123,050 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.78% increase; the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase; the price of imported nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 122,250 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase [15]. - As of October 27, the LME nickel price increased by 105 dollars/ton to 15,335 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.69% increase; the LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton to - 205.18 dollars/ton [19]. - As of October 27, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 9 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.96% decrease [3][27]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.56 million tons month - on - month, a 1.14% increase, and a 13.07% increase year - on - year [3][49]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly refined nickel export volume was 1.41 million tons, a 6.22% decrease month - on - month, and a 33.21% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 2.84 million tons, a 17.29% increase month - on - month, and a 378.85% increase year - on - year [49]. - As of October 27, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,912 tons to 29,800 tons week - on - week, a 10.84% increase; LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 762 tons to 251,200 tons week - on - week, a 0.30% increase [50]. 3.1.3 Demand - The battery field is the core driver of demand. The penetration of high - nickel battery technology is increasing, and new - energy vehicle manufacturers have stable production, increasing the procurement demand for high - purity nickel sulfate. The electroplating field benefits from the peak season of consumer electronics, driving up the inquiry volume of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate [4]. 3.2 Nickel Ore Market 3.2.1 Price - As of October 27, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore increased by 1 dollar/wet ton to 30, 58, and 79.5 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - As of October 24, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained unchanged at 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained unchanged at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [3][32]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of October 24, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 29 million tons to 10.24 million wet tons week - on - week, a 2.75% decrease [35]. - In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a 3.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 34.43% increase year - on - year. Among them, the import volume from the Philippines was 5.8174 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediate Product Market - As of October 27, the FOB price of MHP increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,184 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,489 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP decreased by 0.08 million tons to 4.07 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.93% decrease; the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 0.53 million tons to 2.26 million tons month - on - month, a 30.64% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 1.905 million tons, a 11.66% increase month - on - month, and a 67.38% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 0.568 million tons, a 236.44% increase month - on - month, and a 65.93% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate production increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.40 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 11.45% increase. The production of domestic nickel sulfate increased, and the operating rate was also adjusted upwards. Recently, some salt plants that had undergone maintenance have restored production capacity, and the production volume has slightly increased due to contract processing orders. However, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the volume of spot sales is limited, and the market supply continues to be in a tight pattern [62]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate import volume was 2.95 million tons, a 2.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 36.24% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 806,420 tons, a 58.96% increase month - on - month, and a 75.81% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.5 Nickel Iron Market 3.5.1 Production - As of September 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.23 million tons to 2.29 million tons month - on - month, a 9.30% decrease. Most domestic nickel iron manufacturers maintain a normal production rhythm, but due to the narrowing profit margin and weak demand, the overall industry operating rate is at a low level [78]. - As of September 2025, the production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia increased by 0.2 million tons to 13.99 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.45% increase [78]. 3.5.2 Import - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel iron import volume was 1.0853 million tons (converted to metal content of 136,400 tons), a 24.16% increase month - on - month, and a 47.19% increase year - on - year. The latest data shows that the import volume of nickel iron from Indonesia has increased significantly, exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [78]. 3.5.3 Profit - As of October 27, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 2.94 yuan/nickel point to 1,002.96 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to - 7.42% [84]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market 3.6.1 Price - Last week, the stainless steel main contract ss2512 opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 12,840 yuan/ton and a low of 12,565 yuan/ton, a 1.43% weekly increase. The futures market showed an upward trend, but the boost to the spot market was limited [87]. 3.6.2 Production - As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, a 0.60% increase month - on - month, and a 4.75% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production plan for the 200 - series was 1.035 million tons, a 1.35% increase month - on - month; the 300 - series was 1.7649 million tons, a 0.12% increase month - on - month; the 400 - series was 0.6293 million tons, a 0.69% increase month - on - month [90]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of October 24, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 13,800 tons to 1.0274 million tons week - on - week, a 1.33% decrease. Among them, the 300 - series inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 649,300 tons week - on - week, a 0.89% decrease [93]. - As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 601 tons to 73,900 tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [93]. 3.6.4 Cost - As of October 28, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 78 yuan/ton to 12,904 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.60% decrease [96].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the transfer of shares of Liken Resources (02245) from HSBC to CITIC Securities, with a market value of HKD 618 million, representing 4.09% of the total shares [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities reports that Liken Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned wet process capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, and an equity capacity of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt, expected to be fully operational by 2024 [1] - The company has a pyrometallurgical project with a phase one capacity of 95,000 tons, which is set to commence production in 2023, while part of the phase two production lines is expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons, indicating significant production flexibility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Range-bound trading [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and China's growth-stabilizing policies are expected to be rolled out. Affected by macro events, nickel prices are likely to consolidate at the bottom and are more sensitive to supply-side disturbances. Focus on mining news and macro changes in Q4, and the valuation range of pure nickel can refer to the production cost of integrated electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices). In terms of operations, short-term range trading is recommended, and combination strategies such as selling out-of-the-money call options can be used to increase returns, while paying attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, policies in nickel resource countries stimulated price increases; in Q2, trade conflicts and an intensified surplus led to a sharp decline; in Q3, the fundamentals were stable, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September provided a temporary boost. As of September 26, SHFE nickel closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from mid-year, and LME nickel was reported at $15,230/ton, up 0.33% [8]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, but the subsequent path remains uncertain. The economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations, while unemployment and inflation expectations are relatively stable [12][13]. - The US labor market has weakened significantly, with non-farm payrolls being persistently weak and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021. Inflation has been rising steadily, increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [21]. 3.2.2 China's Economic Situation - In H2, some macro data showed signs of weakening, including fixed asset investment and social consumption. The government may introduce new incremental measures in Q4, focusing on fiscal stimulus, central bank interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the real estate market [24][27]. - The "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, but their impact on the nickel industry chain is currently limited [28][29]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is stable, but there are risks of policy disturbances. The premium for nickel ore remains firm, and Indonesia's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB quota for 2026 will be re-approved in October, attracting market attention [31][32]. - China's nickel pig iron production has declined slightly, while Indonesia's production remains high but with a slowing growth rate. The import of nickel pig iron from Indonesia has increased year-on-year [43][44]. - The import of nickel intermediate products has increased, with a decline in the import of nickel matte. Indonesia's MHP production has increased significantly, while the production of nickel matte has decreased [51][54]. - The production of refined nickel has remained high, with both imports and exports increasing. The cost of integrated electrowon nickel production will be the focus of pure nickel valuation [58][68]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The growth rate of stainless steel production has slowed down, and the demand has shown some resilience. The social inventory of stainless steel is gradually being depleted [70][80]. - The production of nickel sulfate has remained stable year-on-year, but the low proportion of ternary materials in power batteries has dragged down the demand for nickel. In the long term, solid-state batteries may drive the demand for high-nickel ternary materials [85][88]. - The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel has maintained a certain growth rate, and attention should be paid to the situation of national stockpiling [92][93]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot premium has weakened slightly compared to mid-year [95]. 3.3.4 Supply-Demand Balance - The surplus pattern of primary nickel continues, and attention should be paid to supply-side disturbances in Q4. It is expected that China will have a surplus of 179,800 tons of primary nickel in 2025, and the global surplus will be 246,200 tons [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US Q2 economic data was strong, with GDP and personal consumption growth exceeding expectations. The core PCE growth slowed in August, and the risk of stagflation seemed to subside. Fed officials had differences on the interest - rate cut path, and the market bet on a 25bp rate cut in October. In China, the interest - rate benchmark remained unchanged, with expectations of RRR and interest - rate cuts [3]. - Fundamental situation: The conflict in the Middle East had limited impact on overseas nickel mines, mainly affecting the loading and unloading efficiency of southern Chinese ports. The Boroy typhoon might have affected Philippine nickel mines, but the ore price was stable. Nickel - iron plants faced cost pressure, and the game on nickel - ore prices between upstream and downstream continued. Some nickel - sulfate manufacturers stopped production, with prices firm but limited price - increase power for nickel salts. The trading of pure nickel did not improve [3]. - Future outlook: With expected disturbances in the macro and resource aspects, nickel prices may fluctuate widely. During the National Day, overseas economic data will be released, and the domestic market closure may bring more uncertainties. Indonesia will announce a new RKAB approval plan in October, making the supply outlook of the ore end uncertain. The market trading is expected to be cold before the holiday, and nickel prices may fluctuate, with attention to overseas market disturbances during the holiday [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Variety | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121380 | 121500 | - 120 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15166.91 | 15271 | - 104.09 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 230124 | 228444 | 1680 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 25153 | 25843 | - 690 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2350 | 2400 | - 50 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 450 | - 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 961 | 961 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 82.4 | 81.9 | 0.49 | Tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macroeconomic data**: The market bet that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in October was 85.5%. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3.8%, personal consumption expenditure was 2.5%, and the core PCE price index was 2.6%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 were 218,000. The August core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, and personal expenditure monthly rate was 0.6% [5]. - **Nickel - ore market**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines was stable at 49 US dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia was 37.65 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic nickel - ore port inventory was 971 million tons as of September 19, a significant increase of 18 million tons from the previous period but still lower than last year [6]. - **Pure - nickel market**: In August, China's refined - nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate was 66%. The profit margins of MHP and integrated high - matte nickel improved. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a significant year - on - year increase but a month - on - month decrease. The export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of September 26, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was 164.32 US dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Nickel - iron market**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) fluctuated around 954.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel - iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - month and month - on - month increase. As of September 15, the nickel - iron inventory decreased slightly. Nickel - iron plants still faced losses, and the raw - material inventory was cautious [8]. - **Stainless - steel market**: In August, the production plan of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.79 million tons. As of September 25, the inventory was about 532,400 tons, a slight increase. In September, the steel - mill production plan increased, and the de - stocking trend might continue [9]. - **Nickel - sulfate market**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,150 yuan/ton to 28,200 yuan/ton, and that of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate was stable at 29,750 yuan/ton. In August, the nickel - sulfate metal output was about 30,480 tons. The output of ternary materials increased. As of September 26, the downstream and upstream inventory days were 9 days and 5 days respectively. The price of nickel sulfate was stable, and the actual trading volume was limited [10]. - **New - energy vehicle market**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, the US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns in the later stage [10]. - **Inventory situation**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 40,828 tons, a decrease of 656 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 25,153 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 690 tons, and the LME inventory was 230,123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1680 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 990 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang's 30,000 - ton electrowinning nickel production line was officially opened, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [13]. - The ESDM department suspended 190 mining companies in Indonesia, with a maximum suspension period of 60 days. The suspension could be lifted if the companies submitted reclamation plans and provided reclamation deposits. Otherwise, their mining licenses might be permanently revoked [13]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, the Indonesian ESDM will require the submission of the RKAB through the MinerbaOne application. The government is communicating with IUP holders [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17][19][22].