1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view on nickel is that it will be in a volatile state. The price of nickel ore at the raw material end remains high, and with the coming of the rainy season in the Philippines, the shipment volume of nickel ore is hindered, and mines have a strong attitude to hold prices. The fundamentals of pure nickel remain weak, but short - term macro - sentiment may still be priced in, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - The short - term stainless steel market is operating weakly. The downward shift of cost support and the imbalance between supply and demand jointly suppress steel prices. After the "Silver October" peak season, downstream buyers mainly purchase for rigid demand and resist high - priced resources, making it difficult to provide upward momentum for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of October 27, the spot price of electrolytic nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 123,050 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.78% increase; the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase; the price of imported nickel increased by 950 yuan/ton to 122,250 yuan/ton, a 0.78% increase [15]. - As of October 27, the LME nickel price increased by 105 dollars/ton to 15,335 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.69% increase; the LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton to - 205.18 dollars/ton [19]. - As of October 27, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 9 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 0.96% decrease [3][27]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of September 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.56 million tons month - on - month, a 1.14% increase, and a 13.07% increase year - on - year [3][49]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly refined nickel export volume was 1.41 million tons, a 6.22% decrease month - on - month, and a 33.21% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 2.84 million tons, a 17.29% increase month - on - month, and a 378.85% increase year - on - year [49]. - As of October 27, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,912 tons to 29,800 tons week - on - week, a 10.84% increase; LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 762 tons to 251,200 tons week - on - week, a 0.30% increase [50]. 3.1.3 Demand - The battery field is the core driver of demand. The penetration of high - nickel battery technology is increasing, and new - energy vehicle manufacturers have stable production, increasing the procurement demand for high - purity nickel sulfate. The electroplating field benefits from the peak season of consumer electronics, driving up the inquiry volume of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate [4]. 3.2 Nickel Ore Market 3.2.1 Price - As of October 27, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore increased by 1 dollar/wet ton to 30, 58, and 79.5 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - As of October 24, the ex - works prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia remained unchanged at 23 and 52.8 dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week [3][32]. - Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang remained unchanged at 12.5 and 11.5 dollars/wet ton respectively [3][32]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of October 24, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 29 million tons to 10.24 million wet tons week - on - week, a 2.75% decrease [35]. - In September 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a 3.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 34.43% increase year - on - year. Among them, the import volume from the Philippines was 5.8174 million tons, a 1.93% decrease month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediate Product Market - As of October 27, the FOB price of MHP increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,184 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 24 dollars/ton to 13,489 dollars/ton week - on - week, a 0.18% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP decreased by 0.08 million tons to 4.07 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.93% decrease; the production of high - grade nickel matte increased by 0.53 million tons to 2.26 million tons month - on - month, a 30.64% increase [41]. - As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 1.905 million tons, a 11.66% increase month - on - month, and a 67.38% increase year - on - year; the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 0.568 million tons, a 236.44% increase month - on - month, and a 65.93% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate production increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.40 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 11.45% increase. The production of domestic nickel sulfate increased, and the operating rate was also adjusted upwards. Recently, some salt plants that had undergone maintenance have restored production capacity, and the production volume has slightly increased due to contract processing orders. However, the overall inventory is at a low level, and the volume of spot sales is limited, and the market supply continues to be in a tight pattern [62]. - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel sulfate import volume was 2.95 million tons, a 2.51% decrease month - on - month, and a 36.24% increase year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 806,420 tons, a 58.96% increase month - on - month, and a 75.81% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.5 Nickel Iron Market 3.5.1 Production - As of September 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.23 million tons to 2.29 million tons month - on - month, a 9.30% decrease. Most domestic nickel iron manufacturers maintain a normal production rhythm, but due to the narrowing profit margin and weak demand, the overall industry operating rate is at a low level [78]. - As of September 2025, the production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia increased by 0.2 million tons to 13.99 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 1.45% increase [78]. 3.5.2 Import - As of September 2025, China's monthly nickel iron import volume was 1.0853 million tons (converted to metal content of 136,400 tons), a 24.16% increase month - on - month, and a 47.19% increase year - on - year. The latest data shows that the import volume of nickel iron from Indonesia has increased significantly, exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [78]. 3.5.3 Profit - As of October 27, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian increased by 2.94 yuan/nickel point to 1,002.96 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, and the production profit margin decreased by 1.17 percentage points to - 7.42% [84]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Market 3.6.1 Price - Last week, the stainless steel main contract ss2512 opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 12,840 yuan/ton and a low of 12,565 yuan/ton, a 1.43% weekly increase. The futures market showed an upward trend, but the boost to the spot market was limited [87]. 3.6.2 Production - As of October 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production plan was 3.4472 million tons, a 0.60% increase month - on - month, and a 4.75% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production plan for the 200 - series was 1.035 million tons, a 1.35% increase month - on - month; the 300 - series was 1.7649 million tons, a 0.12% increase month - on - month; the 400 - series was 0.6293 million tons, a 0.69% increase month - on - month [90]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of October 24, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 13,800 tons to 1.0274 million tons week - on - week, a 1.33% decrease. Among them, the 300 - series inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 649,300 tons week - on - week, a 0.89% decrease [93]. - As of October 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 601 tons to 73,900 tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [93]. 3.6.4 Cost - As of October 28, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 78 yuan/ton to 12,904 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.60% decrease [96].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the transfer of shares of Liken Resources (02245) from HSBC to CITIC Securities, with a market value of HKD 618 million, representing 4.09% of the total shares [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities reports that Liken Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned wet process capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, and an equity capacity of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt, expected to be fully operational by 2024 [1] - The company has a pyrometallurgical project with a phase one capacity of 95,000 tons, which is set to commence production in 2023, while part of the phase two production lines is expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons, indicating significant production flexibility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Range-bound trading [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and China's growth-stabilizing policies are expected to be rolled out. Affected by macro events, nickel prices are likely to consolidate at the bottom and are more sensitive to supply-side disturbances. Focus on mining news and macro changes in Q4, and the valuation range of pure nickel can refer to the production cost of integrated electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices). In terms of operations, short-term range trading is recommended, and combination strategies such as selling out-of-the-money call options can be used to increase returns, while paying attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, policies in nickel resource countries stimulated price increases; in Q2, trade conflicts and an intensified surplus led to a sharp decline; in Q3, the fundamentals were stable, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September provided a temporary boost. As of September 26, SHFE nickel closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from mid-year, and LME nickel was reported at $15,230/ton, up 0.33% [8]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, but the subsequent path remains uncertain. The economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations, while unemployment and inflation expectations are relatively stable [12][13]. - The US labor market has weakened significantly, with non-farm payrolls being persistently weak and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021. Inflation has been rising steadily, increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [21]. 3.2.2 China's Economic Situation - In H2, some macro data showed signs of weakening, including fixed asset investment and social consumption. The government may introduce new incremental measures in Q4, focusing on fiscal stimulus, central bank interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the real estate market [24][27]. - The "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, but their impact on the nickel industry chain is currently limited [28][29]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is stable, but there are risks of policy disturbances. The premium for nickel ore remains firm, and Indonesia's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB quota for 2026 will be re-approved in October, attracting market attention [31][32]. - China's nickel pig iron production has declined slightly, while Indonesia's production remains high but with a slowing growth rate. The import of nickel pig iron from Indonesia has increased year-on-year [43][44]. - The import of nickel intermediate products has increased, with a decline in the import of nickel matte. Indonesia's MHP production has increased significantly, while the production of nickel matte has decreased [51][54]. - The production of refined nickel has remained high, with both imports and exports increasing. The cost of integrated electrowon nickel production will be the focus of pure nickel valuation [58][68]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The growth rate of stainless steel production has slowed down, and the demand has shown some resilience. The social inventory of stainless steel is gradually being depleted [70][80]. - The production of nickel sulfate has remained stable year-on-year, but the low proportion of ternary materials in power batteries has dragged down the demand for nickel. In the long term, solid-state batteries may drive the demand for high-nickel ternary materials [85][88]. - The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel has maintained a certain growth rate, and attention should be paid to the situation of national stockpiling [92][93]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot premium has weakened slightly compared to mid-year [95]. 3.3.4 Supply-Demand Balance - The surplus pattern of primary nickel continues, and attention should be paid to supply-side disturbances in Q4. It is expected that China will have a surplus of 179,800 tons of primary nickel in 2025, and the global surplus will be 246,200 tons [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US Q2 economic data was strong, with GDP and personal consumption growth exceeding expectations. The core PCE growth slowed in August, and the risk of stagflation seemed to subside. Fed officials had differences on the interest - rate cut path, and the market bet on a 25bp rate cut in October. In China, the interest - rate benchmark remained unchanged, with expectations of RRR and interest - rate cuts [3]. - Fundamental situation: The conflict in the Middle East had limited impact on overseas nickel mines, mainly affecting the loading and unloading efficiency of southern Chinese ports. The Boroy typhoon might have affected Philippine nickel mines, but the ore price was stable. Nickel - iron plants faced cost pressure, and the game on nickel - ore prices between upstream and downstream continued. Some nickel - sulfate manufacturers stopped production, with prices firm but limited price - increase power for nickel salts. The trading of pure nickel did not improve [3]. - Future outlook: With expected disturbances in the macro and resource aspects, nickel prices may fluctuate widely. During the National Day, overseas economic data will be released, and the domestic market closure may bring more uncertainties. Indonesia will announce a new RKAB approval plan in October, making the supply outlook of the ore end uncertain. The market trading is expected to be cold before the holiday, and nickel prices may fluctuate, with attention to overseas market disturbances during the holiday [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Variety | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121380 | 121500 | - 120 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15166.91 | 15271 | - 104.09 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 230124 | 228444 | 1680 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 25153 | 25843 | - 690 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2350 | 2400 | - 50 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 450 | - 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 961 | 961 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 82.4 | 81.9 | 0.49 | Tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macroeconomic data**: The market bet that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in October was 85.5%. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3.8%, personal consumption expenditure was 2.5%, and the core PCE price index was 2.6%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 were 218,000. The August core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, and personal expenditure monthly rate was 0.6% [5]. - **Nickel - ore market**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines was stable at 49 US dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia was 37.65 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic nickel - ore port inventory was 971 million tons as of September 19, a significant increase of 18 million tons from the previous period but still lower than last year [6]. - **Pure - nickel market**: In August, China's refined - nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate was 66%. The profit margins of MHP and integrated high - matte nickel improved. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a significant year - on - year increase but a month - on - month decrease. The export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of September 26, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was 164.32 US dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Nickel - iron market**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) fluctuated around 954.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel - iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - month and month - on - month increase. As of September 15, the nickel - iron inventory decreased slightly. Nickel - iron plants still faced losses, and the raw - material inventory was cautious [8]. - **Stainless - steel market**: In August, the production plan of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.79 million tons. As of September 25, the inventory was about 532,400 tons, a slight increase. In September, the steel - mill production plan increased, and the de - stocking trend might continue [9]. - **Nickel - sulfate market**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,150 yuan/ton to 28,200 yuan/ton, and that of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate was stable at 29,750 yuan/ton. In August, the nickel - sulfate metal output was about 30,480 tons. The output of ternary materials increased. As of September 26, the downstream and upstream inventory days were 9 days and 5 days respectively. The price of nickel sulfate was stable, and the actual trading volume was limited [10]. - **New - energy vehicle market**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, the US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns in the later stage [10]. - **Inventory situation**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 40,828 tons, a decrease of 656 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 25,153 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 690 tons, and the LME inventory was 230,123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1680 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 990 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang's 30,000 - ton electrowinning nickel production line was officially opened, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [13]. - The ESDM department suspended 190 mining companies in Indonesia, with a maximum suspension period of 60 days. The suspension could be lifted if the companies submitted reclamation plans and provided reclamation deposits. Otherwise, their mining licenses might be permanently revoked [13]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, the Indonesian ESDM will require the submission of the RKAB through the MinerbaOne application. The government is communicating with IUP holders [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the transfer of shares of Liken Resources (02245) from Deutsche Bank to Huasheng Capital Securities, with a market value of HKD 543 million, representing 4.86% of the total shares [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities reports that Liken Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned wet nickel production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, and an equity capacity of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt, expected to be fully operational by 2024 [1] - The pyrometallurgical project has a phase one capacity of 95,000 tons, which is set to commence production in 2023, while part of the phase two production lines is expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing the company's total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons, indicating significant production flexibility [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the transfer of shares of Likin Resources (02245) from Deutsche Bank to Huasheng Capital Securities, with a market value of HKD 543 million, representing 4.86% of the total shares [1] - Minsheng Securities reports that Likin Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned wet process capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, with an equity capacity of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt, expected to be fully operational by 2024 [1] - The company has a pyrometallurgical project with a first phase capacity of 95,000 tons, which is set to commence production in 2023, while part of the second phase production lines is expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons, indicating significant capacity flexibility [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of leading global nickel smelter, Lygend Resources (2245.HK), surged over 17% to a record high of 17.95 HKD, with trading volume reaching 320 million HKD, driven by news of the Democratic Republic of Congo lifting its cobalt export ban and implementing annual export quotas [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo, the world's largest supplier of cobalt, will allow the export of up to 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, with annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [1]. - Nickel prices are currently at a cyclical low, with clear cost support, indicating a potential for price recovery [1]. Group 2: Company Positioning - Lygend Resources' wet nickel production capacity is located in Indonesia, which is unaffected by the export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, allowing the company to fully benefit from the anticipated rise in cobalt prices [1]. - The combination of new production capacity and cost advantages significantly enhances the growth potential of Lygend Resources [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision was in line with market expectations, with the dot - plot indicating 2 more potential rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell emphasized the need to prevent labor market risks and the existence of inflation risks [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September, but the overall impact on the spot market was limited. Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October", ferronickel still had an upward trend, but the increase was weakening. Nickel salts remained popular, with the production of ternary materials increasing monthly, and the consumption of power terminals improving marginally. Pure nickel showed little change [3]. - Domestically, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, which may provide a second - round boost to the macro - environment. Nickel prices have fallen to the lower end of the range and are expected to be corrected technically. However, the fundamentals show no obvious driving force, and the inventory accumulation pressure has increased, indicating weak downstream consumption. It is expected that nickel prices may rise slightly driven by the macro - environment and technical factors [3][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Macro - level**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.25% on Wednesday. The new dot - plot implies 2 more rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell stated that this rate cut was preventive, and the Fed was optimistic about the future economic outlook [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September. The market is concerned about the RKAB approval in October [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In August, China's refined nickel production was 3.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The profit margins of some processes improved. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia and Norway, and exports also increased. As of September 18, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1272.68 yuan/ton [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron rose slightly. In August, China's ferronickel production increased by 11.77% month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. As of September 15, the inventory of ferronickel decreased. In July, imports increased year - on - year, with significant changes in imports from different countries [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In August, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel increased. As of September 15, the inventory increased slightly. In September, steel mills' production plans increased, and the de - stocking trend may continue [8]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In August, the production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The downstream and upstream inventory days remained stable. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of high - demand but soft - price [9]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 59.8%. The inventory of the passenger vehicle market has decreased, and the production - sales ratio has increased. The subsidy policy may have limited impact on demand [9]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 429 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 2314 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3360 tons, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 5674 tons [10]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia announced the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore in September, which increased by about 0.68% compared to the first - phase [13]. - Antam and CATL plan to invest $1.9 billion in building a comprehensive nickel smelter in Indonesia. The HPAL project aims to produce 55,000 tons of MHP per year, and the RKEF smelter aims to produce 88,000 tons of NPI per year [13]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of domestic and foreign nickel, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Group 1 - The company is currently in the ramp-up phase of its nickel smelting production capacity in Indonesia, indicating that full production capacity has not yet been reached [2] - Overall operational conditions are reported to be good, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's performance [2] - As production capacity gradually increases, the company expects to enhance its industrial synergy, effectively reduce comprehensive production costs, and improve product profitability [2]