Summary of Weiming Environmental Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Weiming Environmental - **Industry**: Nickel production and waste incineration power generation Key Points and Arguments Nickel Production - Weiming Environmental's first high ice nickel production line is expected to be operational by the end of the year, with a 70% stake in the project, projected to contribute approximately 400 million RMB in net profit attributable to the parent company, significantly enhancing 2026 performance [2][3] - Current high ice nickel prices are around $13,000 per ton, with estimated production costs controlled between $11,000 and $12,000 per ton [2][3] - The company has laid out plans for three nickel smelting projects, with the first project expected to reach full production by 2025, contributing to a total capacity of 40,000 tons [3] - The company also holds a 20% stake in a 20,000-ton wet nickel smelting project [3] Waste Incineration Power Generation - Total waste incineration power generation capacity has reached approximately 40,000 tons, ranking within the top ten in the industry, generating annual operational revenue of 1.7 to 2 billion RMB and over 3 billion RMB in cash flow [2][6] - The business model relies on waste treatment fees (30%) and electricity sales (70%) [6] - The industry has entered a stable operational phase, with capacity exceeding the 14th Five-Year Plan target, and new capacity additions are not expected to increase further [10] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net cash ratio typically hovers around 1.3 times, indicating strong operational cash flow relative to net profit [8] - A significant national subsidy payment is expected to return in June to July 2025, indicating an acceleration in subsidy disbursement [9] - For 2025, the environmental business is projected to grow by about 10%, with total profits expected to reach around 3 billion RMB, corresponding to a market capitalization of over 30 billion RMB, resulting in a PE ratio of less than 11 [25] Future Growth and Expansion - Future growth points include the high ice nickel smelting industry and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, where modern waste incineration facilities are lacking [17][18] - The company is exploring partnerships to apply waste incineration power generation to high-energy-consuming enterprises, enhancing revenue through green electricity supply policies [20] - The Shanghai Lingyun Volunteer Center project is expected to influence the industry towards a rental model for computing power [21] Challenges and Opportunities - The nickel industry is expected to see upward price trends due to low-cost production, rapid downstream demand growth, and concentrated supply dynamics [7] - The company faces challenges in overseas expansion, including higher investment costs (20%-30% more than domestic) but has opportunities for higher revenue in markets like Indonesia [19] Key Milestones - Key milestones include the operational launch of the new high ice nickel production line by the end of the year and decisions based on nickel cost data expected in the third or fourth quarter [27] Additional Important Information - The company has a full industrial chain equipment manufacturing capability, which reduces capital expenditure and enhances competitiveness [4][16] - The waste incineration power generation business is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, keeping the dividend yield at approximately 3% [27]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Lijin Resource Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Lijin Resource") has announced a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, is expected to be between RMB 1.2 billion and RMB 1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 104.4% to 155.5% [1]. - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 587 million [1]. Group 2: Operational Highlights - The substantial growth in net profit is primarily attributed to the production release from the Wet ONC project and the Fire KPS project [1]. - The company has optimized its product structure, implemented refined cost control management, and made technological improvements to enhance profitability [1]. Group 3: Project Developments - Lijin Resource is jointly investing with Indonesian partners in the construction of wet and fire nickel ore smelting projects on Obi Island, Indonesia, utilizing leading industry technologies such as high-pressure acid leaching and RKEF smelting processes, with a combined annual design capacity of 400,000 tons of nickel metal [1]. - The HPAL project has a total design capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal and has achieved full production operation [1]. - The RKEF project has a total design capacity of 280,000 tons of nickel metal, with the company's equity project HJF achieving full production and an annual design capacity of 95,000 tons, while the controlling project KPS has partially commenced production with an annual design capacity of 185,000 tons, with full construction expected to be completed by 2026 [1]. Group 4: Industry Context - Despite the downward fluctuation in nickel prices in the first half of 2025, Lijin Resource has demonstrated strong performance, indicating its resilience during cyclical downturns [2]. - Companies like Lijin Resource, which can achieve steady growth during industry downturns, are likely to outperform the industry in subsequent performance [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices first declined and then rose, with significant macro - impacts. Spot transactions were average, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices slightly declined, and freight rates may continue to rise due to insufficient shipping capacity. Ferronickel prices were weak, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased. Stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continued to flow out, and demand remained poor as July and August are traditional off - seasons for consumption. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, which is beneficial for nickel demand, but attention should be paid to the supply - side reform of new energy vehicles. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract is expected to operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices were affected by the macro - environment, with spot transactions being average. In the industrial chain, ore prices dropped slightly, freight rates might rise, ferronickel prices were weak, and stainless steel demand was poor. New energy vehicle data was positive for nickel demand, but the long - term surplus remained [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore: The price of some grades of laterite nickel ore decreased. For example, the price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $52 to $51, a decrease of 1.92% [11]. - Electrolytic nickel: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price all decreased. Shanghai electrolytic nickel dropped from 124,620 yuan to 123,260 yuan, a decrease of 1.09% [12]. - Ferronickel: Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 3,600 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. High - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 920 yuan/nickel point to 915 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.54% [11]. - Stainless steel: The price of 304 stainless steel increased from 13,425 yuan/ton to 13,487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: The price of some grades of nickel ore decreased by $1 per wet ton compared with last week, while the freight rate increased by $2 per wet ton [15]. - Inventory: On July 10, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.9649 million wet tons, an increase of 246,500 wet tons or 2.83% from the previous period [15]. - Import: In May 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.9272 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0131 million tons or 34.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 681,700 tons or 14.79% [15]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices first declined and then rose, with average transactions. The overall demand was hard to improve, and the marginal cost also decreased to some extent [20][23]. - Production: In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37% [27]. - Import and Export: In May 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,535.551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons or 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,631 tons or 121.85% [31]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Price: Ferronickel prices continued to decline. Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and high - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 5 yuan/nickel [41][43]. - Production: In June 2025, China's ferronickel actual production in metal terms was 23,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% [45]. - Import: In May 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 848,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 3.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 197,000 tons or 30.2% [48]. - Inventory: In June, the negotiable inventory of ferronickel was 233,100 physical tons, equivalent to 21,000 nickel tons [51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel increased. The four - location average price increased by 62.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [56][57]. - Production: In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the production of the 300 - series decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month [61]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 125,100 tons and exports were 436,200 tons [64]. - Inventory: On July 11, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,230 tons, in Foshan was 359,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons [67]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In May 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9% respectively. From January to May 2025, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% respectively [73]. - Power Batteries: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, prices fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The position has not increased significantly. Although the MACD shows a red bar, the upward trend has slowed down. Technically, the pressure of the upper golden section line is still large, and there is minor support such as the 20 - day moving average below. A range - bound view is maintained [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of different links on nickel prices varies. Nickel ore, ferronickel, and refined nickel are neutral - bearish. Stainless steel is neutral, and new energy is neutral - bullish [83]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [85][86].

Group 1: Report Title and Overall Outlook - Nickel is expected to oscillate due to the game between macro and fundamental factors [1] - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate due to the game between reality and macro - expectations [2] Group 2: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 121,140, with changes of 2,000 (T - 1), - 650 (T - 5), 310 (T - 10), - 250 (T - 22), and 2,190 (T - 66) [2] - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,865, with changes of 95 (T - 1), 155 (T - 5), 230 (T - 10), 405 (T - 22), and 210 (T - 66) [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 102,155, with changes of - 8,908 (T - 1), 23,166 (T - 5), - 48,400 (T - 10), - 5,365 (T - 22), and - 157,881 (T - 66) [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of stainless steel is 101,032, with changes of 2,396 (T - 1), 15,621 (T - 5), - 149,945 (T - 10), - 113,621 (T - 22), and - 51,265 (T - 66) [2] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 119,900, with changes of 400 (T - 1), - 1,950 (T - 5), - 600 (T - 10), - 1,700 (T - 22), and 625 (T - 66) [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 905, with changes of 0 (T - 1), - 4 (T - 5), - 9 (T - 10), - 41 (T - 22), and - 108 (T - 66) [2] - The battery - grade nickel sulfate price is 27,420, with changes of 0 (T - 1), 20 (T - 5), 20 (T - 10), - 395 (T - 22), and - 790 (T - 66) [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff fight and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [3] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [4][5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output, and it cut production by 40 - 50% in May [5] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [5] - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed违法 companies and audit the whole park [5] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6] - The 2025 production target approved by the Indonesian government for nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [6] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The negative feedback in the industrial chain has not ended [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Situation and Policy Changes - On June 10, Indonesia's Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the revocation of the mining licenses of four nickel companies in Raja Ampat, Papua, due to environmental concerns [3] - On July 2, 2025, Indonesia's Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supplies, which is expected to support prices and increase government revenue [4] Negative Feedback Reaching the Mine End - From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, mine - end profits are still substantial. With mine supply at a seasonal peak, there is room for mine prices to fall [6] - As of July 4, the premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore was $25/wet ton, a week - on - week decrease of $2/wet ton. Due to losses in the NPI - stainless steel industry chain, pyrometallurgical ore prices are under pressure. Hydrometallurgical ore prices are relatively stable as MHP still has profits and the Qingshan Chenxi project is about to be put into production [8] NPI Production Cuts - The latest transaction price of NPI is 910 yuan/nickel point. The previously circulated price of 895 yuan/nickel point had no transactions. NPI production cuts have occurred in China and non - free mine smelters in Indonesia due to increased losses. With no profit recovery in the downstream stainless steel sector, there is still pressure on NPI and pyrometallurgical ore prices [15] Ice - Nickel Production - Since March, ice - nickel has been in a loss state, and current production mainly meets downstream rigid demand. The break - even line for Indonesian ice - nickel corresponds to a nickel price of around $15,000. If Indonesian NPI starts to lose money, attention should be paid to NPI conversion to ice - nickel, which may bring supply pressure [21] MHP Production and New Projects - The tailings dam collapse event in late March was resolved at the end of April, and MHP production has recovered quickly. MHP maintains a profitable state with a cost equivalent to LME nickel price of $13,000/metal ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of Qingshan's newly launched Chenxi project with a capacity of 67,000 metal tons [25] Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - In the first half of the year, the consumption of ternary precursors was lower than expected, and the surplus of sulfuric acid nickel was reflected in the increase of refined nickel production. Losses in non - integrated downstream electrowon nickel have a negative feedback on the sulfuric acid nickel sector, and prices are under downward pressure [33] Domestic Electrowon Nickel and Policy - The 50,000 - ton production capacities of Indonesia's Eternity Nickel Industry and Dingxing Nickel Industry are still in the climbing stage, which will temporarily digest the new pressure of MHP. Domestic non - integrated electrowon nickel is in a loss state, and electrowon nickel production has decreased slightly [42] Stainless Steel Market - After Tsingshan gave up price support the week before last, the spot price of stainless steel collapsed, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was transferred to the terminal. In July, the production plan of 3 - series stainless steel was 1.62 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease but a 2% year - on - year increase. After production cuts, stainless steel profits have not recovered [45] Ternary Precursor Market - In the first half of the year, the cumulative production of domestic ternary precursors was 399,300 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease, and nickel consumption in the new energy field was significantly lower than the initial expectation [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroscopically, the Q1 economic data in the US was below expectations, but recent performance was decent with no obvious economic disturbances. Geopolitical conflicts cooled down, and risk appetite in the previously weak commodity market increased, pushing up prices [2]. - Fundamentally, the shortage of nickel ore eased, and smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Nickel prices hit a new low at the beginning of the week, stimulating downstream purchases and significantly raising spot premiums. Stainless - steel prices rebounded due to sentiment, but spot sales were lackluster, and the terminal market remained weak. Ferronickel faced dual pressure, with ferronickel plants suspending spot quotes and only maintaining long - term contracts. The price of nickel sulfate was stable with no obvious fundamental improvement [2]. - In the later stage, there is no substantial driver for nickel price increases, and prices may回调 after the sentiment cools. After the implementation of the "Regulations on Ensuring the Payment of Accounts of Small and Medium - sized Enterprises" in early June, the payment cycle of car manufacturers to suppliers has been significantly shortened to within 60 days, which may lead to tight cash flow for car manufacturers. BYD plans to stop night - shift production in some factories, and production may be reduced by one - third. With stable terminal consumption expected, the tightened production schedules of leading car manufacturers may drag down the raw material replenishment of upstream material factories, and the new energy sector may weaken significantly. Traditional consumption has no improvement expectation, supply remains relatively high, and the fundamentals may weaken marginally. The price decline may be mainly due to the lack of strong real - world support for last week's price increase, and prices may fall after risk appetite cools [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 120480 | 117440 | 3040 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15245 | 14804 | 441 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 204294 | 205140 | - 846 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 21257 | 21478 | - 221 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2850 | 3100 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 550 | 50 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 922 | 942 | - 20 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 92.1 | 92.6 | - 0.45 | million tons | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore eased. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore from the Philippines rose from $51.5/wet ton to $52.5/wet ton, while that from Indonesia fell from $40.9/wet ton to $38.4/wet ton. Smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Although the transaction price of Philippine nickel ore in July remained high, the shipping progress was slow, and the resource side's transition to a loose pattern was slow, so costs may remain high [4]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 921 Yuan/nickel point to 913 Yuan/nickel point. In May, China's ferronickel production was expected to be about 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%, and in June, it was expected to be 25,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In May, China's ferronickel imports totaled about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's ferronickel production in May was 141,400 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.89% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.36%. In June, the expected production was 142,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. In June, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.816 million tons, an increase of about 18 tons compared with the same period last year, but the month - on - month increase narrowed. In May, the actual production of stainless steel was 1.87 million tons, stronger than the expected 1.78 million tons, the same as April's production. Overall, due to cost pressure, Indonesia's ferronickel production has declined for two consecutive months. Nickel ore demand has weakened, and the shortage has marginally improved. Although stainless - steel prices rebounded, spot transactions were limited, and it was difficult to boost ferronickel consumption. In the short term, ferronickel may stop falling but has limited rebound potential and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,400 Yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 29,000 Yuan/ton to 28,000 Yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and 2.27% respectively. In June, the production of ternary materials increased again, with a total of about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 30.95% and 1.36% respectively. As of June 20, the downstream nickel sulfate inventory days remained at 12 days from the beginning of the month, and the downstream inventory was at a low level, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 10 days, at a relatively high level. At the end of the month, there is an expectation of downstream replenishment, but due to the contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules, the intensity of downstream replenishment may be lower than before [6]. - **Macro - level**: The Q1 economic data was weak, but durable goods orders were strong, and the labor market remained resilient. As of June 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 and the previous value of 246,000. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.5%, lower than the expected - 0.2% and the previous value of - 0.2%. The final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was + 0.5%, lower than the expected + 1.2% and the previous value of + 1.2%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in Q1 was + 3.5%, higher than the expected + 3.4% and the previous value of + 3.4%. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in May was + 16.4%, higher than the expected 8.5% and the previous value of - 6.6%. In terms of monetary policy, Fed officials believe that both inflation and the unemployment rate are expected to rise, and the economic outlook is still uncertain under tariff pressure. Powell advocates continued waiting and deciding on monetary policy after more economic data is available, while some officials believe that the employment market is under pressure and support an early interest - rate cut [6][7]. - **Supply - side**: In June, domestic production capacity was stable, but smelter production schedules declined. According to the SMM's data, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in June was 34,150 tons, further decreasing from May's production. The sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, the same as the previous period. The expected operating rate in June was 63.13%, about 2.21 percentage points lower than last month. In May, the domestic export volume of electrolytic nickel was about 13,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.27% but a significant month - on - month decline. As of June 26, the export profit of nickel in China was $96.26/ton according to the SMM's data. Overall, the center of export profit has moved down, suppressing exports. Coupled with the weakening of nickel prices, domestic supply is expected to decline [7]. - **Terminal Consumption**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market in China was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency sales data, terminal consumption was stable. Although the year - on - year growth rate remained high, the data in June last year was weak after the subsidy policy was issued, so the base effect may provide support. As the base gradually increases after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Currently, the core of consumption lies in vehicle manufacturers' production schedules. Affected by the payment - deadline policy, vehicle manufacturers' cash - flow pressure may become prominent, and they may enter the stage of active inventory reduction. BYD has announced the suspension of night - shift production in some factories, and the production of some factories may decline by one - third. The contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules may have a negative impact on upstream battery cell and material factories [8]. - **Inventory**: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 21,257 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 221 tons, and the LME inventory is 204,294 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 846 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 225,551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,067 tons [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **GEM**: As of the end of 2024, the company's domestic production capacity of ternary cathode materials was 20,000 tons/year, the production capacity of the phosphoric (manganese) iron - lithium demonstration line was 10,000 tons/year, the production capacity of cobalt - acid lithium was 5,000 tons/year, and the production capacity of sodium - battery cathode materials was 10,000 tons/year. The company plans to cooperate with strategic partners such as South Korea's ECOPRO to build a full - industrial - chain strategic cooperation body of "nickel resources - precursors - cathode materials" in Indonesia. The project will be implemented in three phases, with the first and second phases planning to build factories with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of cathode materials and the third phase planning to build a factory with an annual production capacity of about 100,000 tons of cathode materials, aiming to expand the project market globally [10]. - **Indonesia's MMP Nickel Smelting Project**: The 2 - nd electric furnace of the project located in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, was successfully ignited. The project team overcame various difficulties during the project implementation and laid a solid foundation for subsequent production [10]. - **Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base**: On June 25, 2025, the opening ceremony of the first - phase project of Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base was successfully held. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel - based materials, which is an important milestone in Zhongwei's global development and the first new - energy material base in Africa [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, the domestic - to - foreign nickel ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [12][14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the trend of nickel and stainless steel is "sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream demand weakness is gradually giving negative feedback to the upstream. The smelting sector is suffering large - scale losses, and only the MHP segment has a good profit margin. This will make smelters more inclined to push down the price of pyrometallurgical ores. In the third quarter, with the reduced impact of the rainy season in Indonesia, production and transportation efficiency will improve marginally, and the pyrometallurgical ores in Indonesia will face pressure of declining premiums. However, the supply of high - grade pyrometallurgical ores is tight, which may limit the decline in prices [2][70] - Currently, both upstream and downstream are squeezing the smelting profit to an inverted state. The output adjustment actions of Chinese - funded enterprises are less sensitive to profit. If the short - term production cut is less than expected, the oversupply situation may intensify. In terms of structure, new capacity of NPI in Indonesia is still being put into production, but most of the production schedules have been postponed. The supply - demand situation has deteriorated marginally. Attention should be paid to the production cut rhythm in the second half of the year. For refined nickel, it is still in the expansion cycle, but the share is gradually concentrating on the leading enterprises. The integration of hydrometallurgy squeezing pyrometallurgy is the future trend. The supply increment this year basically matches the increment of intermediate products. However, the current implicit inventory replenishment supports the explicit inventory, and its sustainability in the second half of the year needs to be monitored [3] - In the second half of the year, the nickel consumption side has declined compared with the initial expectations at the beginning of the year. For stainless steel, although the export side is okay, tariffs will indirectly suppress domestic demand. Due to weak demand, steel mills are suffering losses and cutting production, which weakens the nickel consumption. For ternary materials, it is estimated that the year - on - year decline in production in the second half of the year will narrow compared with the first half of the year. In general, the domestic ternary nickel consumption will decline by 14,000 metal tons year - on - year. Abroad, the ternary production capacity is gradually ramping up, which will make up for part of the reduction in China from a global perspective. Comprehensively, the consumption of nickel sulfate will show a slight decline [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Mineral End 3.1.1 Sulfide Nickel Ore - The production cut rhythm of sulfide nickel ore has slowed down, and the existing production lines are operating stably. Vale's Onça Puma operation area achieved higher production after the furnace reconstruction in Q1 2024, and Canada's VBME also promoted a large year - on - year increase in the sulfide nickel ore project in the Canadian region due to higher production. Russian nickel's production in Q1 2025 decreased by 1.1% year - on - year to 41,600 tons due to the short - term maintenance plans of the Nadezhda smelter and the Talnakh concentrator. Currently, Russian nickel is facing a decline in foreign currency income due to the appreciation of the ruble and the restriction of high - interest rates on investment plans. In the context of the trade war, weak demand may drag down the overall production. The company expects the total refined nickel production in 2025 to reach 204,000 - 211,000 tons, and it is more likely to fall on the left side of the range, basically flat year - on - year [23] - In Australia, the production of the currently operating nickel ore projects remained at a low level in the first quarter. The decline in ore grade has indirectly led to an increase in mining and processing costs and a marginal decrease in the final output of nickel products. BHP stopped the operation of its refined nickel production line in October last year. In Q1 2025, it only had a high - grade nickel matte production of 2,300 metal tons, and the mine end was completely shut down. The Mt Keith and Leinster nickel ore projects had zero production in Q1 2025, and the high - grade nickel matte project is also expected to stop production later. IGO has only had the Nova project since the fourth quarter of last year. In Q1 2025, its nickel production decreased by 6.5% year - on - year to 4,279 metal tons (only comparing Nova itself, the total production decreased by 34.4% year - on - year) and increased by 23% quarter - on - quarter. Although the nickel ore grade has been improved this quarter due to factors such as the mining sequence and the stoping area, the expected nickel ore grade this year is still at a historical low. It is estimated that the nickel production in the 2025 fiscal year will be on the left side of the guidance range (guidance: 15,000 - 18,000 tons). The Nova - Bollinger mine is expected to stop production at the end of Q4 2026 due to grade depletion [24] - Overall, after the large - scale clearance of high - cost production lines of sulfide nickel ore in 2024, the existing production capacity can basically maintain normal production and is no longer affected by the profit collapse. It is expected that except for the Nova project, which will stop production due to reserve issues, the production of other sulfide nickel ore projects will basically fluctuate within the current production range [28] 3.1.2 Laterite Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: The expectation of ore shortage within the year has been alleviated, and the nickel ore price is under great pressure to decline in the third quarter. At the beginning of the year, although APNI announced that the annual nickel ore quota had been approved for about 298 million wet tons, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources later set the annual nickel ore production target at 220 million wet tons and repeatedly stated that it would cut the RKAB nickel ore quota. Coupled with the heavy rainfall on the Greater K Island, the local transportation and supply rhythm were restricted, and the nickel ore premium quickly increased. As of the end of May, the approved RKAB quota in Indonesia was about 300 million wet tons. However, due to the long rainy season on the Greater K Island this year and the mismatch between the actual shipment capacity and production capacity of some mines that have obtained RKAB approvals, the supply of nickel ore in the market is still tight, and the domestic trade price has not weakened. It is estimated that the annual nickel ore consumption in Indonesia will reach 280 - 290 million wet tons, and the supply, after considering the supply efficiency based on the quota, is expected to be about 260 million wet tons, still having a certain supply - demand gap. This gap can be partly filled by importing nickel ore from the Philippines, but the cost is relatively high, which puts great pressure on smelters. In the second half of the year, there is still an import demand for Philippine nickel ore, but the year - on - year growth rate should slow down compared with the first half of the year, with an estimated annual import volume of over 14 million wet tons. If the domestic nickel ore quota in Indonesia is insufficient, mining enterprises can still apply for new quotas to expand the supply [29][32] - **Philippines**: There was a short - term supply - demand mismatch in the first half of the year, and the price is under great pressure to decline in the second half of the year. With the significant year - on - year increase in Indonesia's demand for Philippine nickel ore and the 4.7% year - on - year decline in the first - quarter production of Philippine nickel ore, the tight supply pattern of Philippine nickel ore has pushed up the price rapidly. The CIF price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia and China has risen from $44 per wet ton at the beginning of the year to about $53 per wet ton in mid - June. It is estimated that the raw material demand will weaken marginally in the third quarter, and the price will be under pressure. The production of Philippine nickel ore has strong seasonality. Affected by the long rainy season this year, the first - quarter production decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. Based on the analysis of Indonesian nickel ore, the annual demand for Philippine nickel ore from Indonesia is supported, but the year - on - year growth rate slows down compared with the first half of the year. The iron plants in China are expected to maintain rigid demand. The annual production forecast of Philippine nickel ore is raised to 401,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.3%. From the perspective of domestic imports and port inventories, Philippine nickel ore is still the main import source. The port inventory has decreased rapidly this year, and the overall domestic import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the domestic import volume of Philippine nickel ore will continue to decline year - on - year before the ore price drops or the NPI profit recovers. In the first quarter, the income of major nickel ore enterprises in the Philippines increased significantly. Asian Nickel's first - quarter sales revenue increased by 16% year - on - year, but the combined EBITDA decreased by 80 million pesos year - on - year due to the increase in marginal cost caused by bad weather. The income of Global Ferronickel in the first quarter reached 1.22 billion pesos, and the net profit attributable to FNI shareholders increased significantly from 10.6 million pesos in the same period last year to 170 million pesos. In terms of new nickel ore projects, Asian Nickel has adjusted its exploration plan, with the South Upper Guintalunan project put into production at the end of 2024 and Manicani expected to contribute incremental production in 2025 [52][53][63] 3.1.3 Conclusion and Thoughts - The clearance process of high - cost sulfide nickel ore production lines is basically over. Except for the Nova project, which will stop production due to reserve issues, the production of other sulfide nickel ore projects will basically fluctuate within the current production range [70] - The supply of laterite nickel ore was tight in the first half of the year, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of ore supply loosening and price decline. The nickel ore market in Indonesia has felt tight since the beginning of 2025. The high import volume of Philippine nickel ore may be a last - resort measure due to the shortage. The "ore shortage" concern mentioned in the first - quarter report has been temporarily alleviated, but the annual supply is still tight, and new quotas may be released in the fourth quarter. Currently, the downstream demand weakness is giving negative feedback to the upstream. The smelting sector is suffering large - scale losses, and only the MHP segment has a good profit margin. This will make smelters more inclined to push down the price of pyrometallurgical ores. It is judged that in the third quarter, with the reduced impact of the rainy season in Indonesia, the pyrometallurgical ores in Indonesia will face pressure of declining premiums. However, the high - grade pyrometallurgical ores are still scarce in the market, which may limit the decline in price [70] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Nickel Iron - **China**: After the low - cost NPI from Indonesia has squeezed the domestic market share, the high - cost production lines of domestic nickel iron plants have basically been cleared. The domestic enterprises still in operation are mostly integrated with downstream steel mills for self - use, and only a small amount of marketable resources are still in production. It is expected that the domestic production will maintain a low - level fluctuation, and more expansion projects will be invested in Indonesia. It is relatively difficult to see further domestic production cuts, which may require the joint production cut of downstream stainless steel. In 2025, the monthly NPI production in China is basically between 22,000 - 25,000 metal tons. From January to May, the production decreased slightly to 115,000 metal tons compared with the same period last year. From January to April, the import volume was 442,000 metal tons, an increase of 62,000 metal tons or 16.4% year - on - year. Considering the expected weakening of stainless steel consumption in the future, it is estimated that the domestic NPI production will decrease by 10,000 metal tons to 290,000 metal tons this year. After the US reciprocal tariff was implemented in April, the demand for downstream stainless steel weakened significantly. In May, some cold - rolling mills began to cut production, which gradually led to a slowdown in NPI procurement and an accumulation of NPI social inventory. As of mid - June, the NPI inventory in major domestic regions reached 34,610 tons, with a year - on - year/quarter - on - quarter inventory accumulation rate of 57.9%/10% [75][79] - **Indonesia**: In the first half of 2025, 6 new submerged arc furnaces were put into production in Indonesia, and the production increase rate slowed down significantly, with a total new annual production capacity of about 90,000 metal tons. Currently, the total number of operating furnaces in Indonesia has reached 223, and the capacity utilization rate is about 70% - 80%. From January to May, the total NPI production in Indonesia was 751,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. From the cost - profit perspective, the current cost of a single nickel point in Indonesia is about 957 - 1040 yuan per nickel, and the corresponding gross profit margin at a price of 940 yuan per nickel (ex - ship, tax included) is between - 12% and - 3%. Both Chinese and Indonesian iron plants are in a loss state, and downstream steel mills have a strong intention to push down the raw material price. Although NPI has cost support and is restricted from further decline, there is no driving force for a rebound. If the nickel ore price drops as expected in the second half of the year and the stainless steel demand does not recover, NPI may face further price pressure due to cost reduction. It is believed that NPI will face production cut pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening demand and shrinking profit. If the production cut is less than expected, the balance sheet may further deteriorate, leading to a further decline in the NPI price. The overall production capacity expansion speed this year has slowed down significantly. In the first half of the year, only KPS, NMI, NNI, and CNI put a total of 6 furnaces into production, involving a production capacity of about 90,000 metal tons. Under the current industry competition, the new production line investment is often postponed, and some un - commissioned furnaces may be directly shut down [81] 3.2.2 Intermediate Products: High - Grade Nickel Matte and MHP - MHP is currently the product with the lowest cost and best profit in the smelting sector, showing a gradual expansion trend this year. However, due to the large initial investment, long pay - back period, and long construction period of hydrometallurgical production capacity, new entrants are mostly large - scale leading enterprises, and the production capacity release process is relatively slow. From January to May 2025, the total MHP production in Indonesia was 184,800 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 66%. In late March, due to environmental factors, some hydrometallurgical production lines were shut down, resulting in a month - on - month decrease of about 7,000 metal tons in production, which was fully recovered in mid - May. As of June, the commissioned MHP production lines have basically reached full production or even over - production, and future production growth depends on the new production capacity release speed [92] - In the first quarter, the economic efficiency of high - grade nickel matte was worse than that of NPI produced by the same RKEF production line. Since the conversion between RKEF production of NPI and high - grade nickel matte is very flexible, most production lines such as Zhongwei, Huake, and Xuri switched to NPI production, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased rapidly. From January to May 2025, the total production of low - grade and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia (excluding the part of low - grade nickel matte converted to high - grade nickel matte) was 114,000 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%, lower than the levels in 2023 and 2024. The oxygen - enriched side - blowing production line is only used for high - grade nickel matte production, but its current production capacity accounts for a relatively low proportion. In May, the production of high - grade nickel matte from the oxygen - enriched side - blowing production accounted for about 14% [93] - Considering the combined monthly metal production of MHP and high - grade nickel matte, it has shown a rapid downward trend since the beginning of the year. Even when combined with the NPI metal production, it has shown a slight downward trend, which may reflect the tight supply of nickel ore. Looking forward, if the smelting sector is reluctant to cut production despite strong downstream negative feedback and the nickel ore supply is expected to loosen, and if the combined metal production of the three shows a marginal upward trend, the high demand for nickel ore will continue, which will limit the decline in nickel ore price, and the high - price nickel ore will squeeze the smelting profit and limit production expansion. On the contrary, if the smelting sector cuts production due to profit inversion, the demand for raw materials will weaken, and the nickel ore price may decline, leading to a simultaneous decline in smelting production and cost. Overall, under the continuous downstream negative feedback, it is believed that the smelting production will likely decline in the future, and the profit inversion will also put pressure on the nickel ore price. As long as the nickel ore supply loosens marginally, it will prompt the smelting sector to re - establish a balance at a reasonable low level [94] - China mainly imports intermediate products, with

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and a weakening of the US dollar index, while increasing market risk appetite [2][6]. - Gold prices are under pressure due to the cease - fire and the potential for a July interest rate cut [3][17][18]. - Different commodity markets show various trends. For example, the agricultural product market has inventory changes, the black metal market has weak demand, and the energy - chemical market is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [4][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called for optimizing rebate policies and shortening the rebate settlement cycle [13]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended a political consultative meeting and emphasized economic reform tasks [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Finance met with the China - US Chamber of Commerce delegation to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations [15]. - Investment advice: Balance asset allocation [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Bowman supports a July interest rate cut if inflation is under control [17]. - Trump announced a phased full - scale cease - fire between Israel and Iran [17]. - Gold prices are weakening, with a risk of decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions and the potential for a rate cut [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru aims to win a majority in the Senate election and ensure energy supply [20]. - A Fed official supports a July interest rate cut [20]. - Trump announced a temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to decline in the short term [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 52 [22]. - Iran's attack on a US military base was less than expected [23]. - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman hinted at a possible July interest rate cut [24]. - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to oscillate weakly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [25]. - Yield is approaching the previous low, and institutions with floating profits may take profit. The bond market is expected to oscillate weakly at the beginning of the week and strengthen later [25]. - Investment advice: Long - position holders can continue to hold, and consider buying on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 903 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of June, with a lower daily average export volume than last year [27]. - The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained the same as the previous week [28]. - Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory continued to rise [29]. - Investment advice: The market lacks a basis for a sharp rise, with short - term prices oscillating. Focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US relations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% from June 1 - 20 [30]. - Palm oil and soybean oil inventories in China increased [30][31]. - The bullish sentiment in the vegetable oil market has weakened, and the increase in palm oil production may lead to inventory accumulation [31]. - Investment advice: Consider buying put options, and beware of the impact of geopolitical factors on the vegetable oil market [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Port steam coal inventories are increasing, and the market has weak demand [32]. - Coal prices have slightly rebounded, and the demand for power plants has seasonally recovered [33]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to weather and port transaction conditions [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From January to May, power grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan [33]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and limited price rebound [33]. - Investment advice: Expect iron ore prices to remain weak [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The by - product market of corn starch has a complex situation, with some prices stable and others showing signs of decline [35]. - Investment advice: Observe the market, as the CS - C spread is complex [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices in Northeast China have risen [36]. - Investment advice: Observe old - crop contracts, and consider shorting new - crop contracts at high prices [36]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia cancelled anti - dumping duties on steel from South Korea and Vietnam [36]. - Five major construction central enterprises' new contract value in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan [37]. - Steel prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and uncertain future trends [37]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and consider hedging on price rebounds [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Silicon wafer prices are falling, and the polysilicon market has weak demand [39][40]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term shorting and long - term going long, and pay attention to the 08 - 09 positive spread opportunity [41]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The number of operating 97 - high - silicon factories has decreased [42]. - Industrial silicon production is increasing, with weak demand and expected price oscillations at a low level [42]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting on price rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes [43]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount, and lead ingot inventory has decreased [44][45]. - Lead supply may decrease marginally, and demand is in the off - season [45]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider buying on dips [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount, and zinc ingot inventory has decreased [47]. - Zinc prices are oscillating, with an expected oversupply in the fundamentals [47]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting at high prices, and pay attention to spread trading opportunities [48]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian nickel - iron plant may be acquired [49][50]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand and expected oversupply [51]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhuhai Guanyu received a nomination notice from Dongfeng Nissan [52]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are under pressure, and new positions are increasing [52]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions, consider partial profit - taking for old short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [53]. 3.2.14 Energy - Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG has increased [55]. - The market's risk premium for LPG is expected to decline [56]. - Investment advice: Expect the LPG futures price to decline [57]. 3.2.15 Energy - Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran agreed to a cease - fire, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices [58]. - Investment advice: Oil prices will give back the risk premium [59]. 3.2.16 Energy - Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is weakening, with general sales [60]. - Supply is stable, and demand is weak [61][62]. - Investment advice: The downside space of the caustic soda futures is limited [63]. 3.2.17 Energy - Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has partially stopped falling and rebounded [64]. - Investment advice: The price increase of pulp futures is expected to be limited [64]. 3.2.18 Energy - Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is fluctuating slightly [65]. - Investment advice: The impact of the Middle - East geopolitical issue on PVC prices is expected to be limited [65]. 3.2.19 Energy - Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have slightly increased, and the de - stocking pattern continues [66][67]. - Investment advice: Expect PX prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [68]. 3.2.20 Energy - Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices have decreased, and the basis has weakened [69]. - PTA supply and demand are generally balanced, with a slightly positive outlook [70]. - Investment advice: Expect PTA prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [71]. 3.2.21 Energy - Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventories have decreased [72]. - Asphalt prices are affected by oil prices and demand, with an upward risk [72]. - Investment advice: Expect asphalt prices to oscillate upward [73]. 3.2.22 Energy - Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a weak oscillation [74]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting soda ash at high prices in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy - Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market have slightly adjusted [75]. - With the arrival of the off - season, glass demand will decline, and prices may fall [76]. - Investment advice: The spot price of float glass may decline, and the futures price may be affected by market sentiment [76]. 3.2.24 Energy - Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, with some transactions [77][79]. - Bottle chip production is expected to decrease in July, alleviating supply pressure [79]. - Investment advice: Consider expanding the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of raw material price fluctuations [79]. 3.2.25 Energy - Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene port inventory has increased [80]. - Styrene supply is recovering, and demand is relatively stable [82]. - Investment advice: Styrene's own driving force is limited, and pay attention to the supply and demand of pure benzene and oil price fluctuations [82]. 3.2.26 Energy - Chemicals (Urea) - The agricultural sector is deploying soybean and oilseed production work [83]. - Urea prices in the domestic market are weakening, with different supply situations in different regions [84]. - Investment advice: The urea futures market may change from a rebound to a weak consolidation, affected by geopolitical and export policies [85].