Group 1 - Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund will collaborate with China's Greeenmei, South Korea's Ecopro, and nickel miners Vale and Mindo Nickel to invest in nickel processing projects [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's nickel sulfate exports reached 16,320 tons in June 2025, with 100% of the exports going to China [1] - Nickel pig iron exports from Indonesia totaled 951,558 tons, with 94.14% (895,837 tons) exported to China [1] - Indonesia exported 15,251 tons of nickel matte, with only 29.87% (4,555 tons) going to China [1] - The export volume of Indonesia's nickel wet processing intermediate products was 160,054 tons, with 100% (160,052 tons) exported to China [1] - Non-alloyed nickel exports from Indonesia amounted to 7,340 tons, with 73.47% (5,393 tons) exported to China [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Monthly Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of nickel is expected to be loose, with weakening support at the mine end. The fundamentals of nickel remain in an overall surplus pattern, and the macro - boosting effect is expected to be limited. Nickel prices may have periodic rebounds but will face pressure above. After the macro - sentiment fades, it will return to the surplus trading logic and continue to test cost support. The main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and a band trading strategy should be maintained [8][45] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Shanghai Nickel continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Affected by domestic macro - policy expectations in the first and middle of the month, it followed the sector to be relatively strong, reaching a maximum of around 125,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, as the macro - optimistic sentiment cooled, the price turned down. The Shanghai Nickel index closed at 119,970 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the end of last month. The total position of the index was 190,000 lots, an increase of 37,484 lots from the end of last month, and the trading volume increased by 1.239 million lots to 4.259 million lots. LME Nickel closed at $14,950/ton, down 1.16% from the end of last month. The total position decreased by 1,820 lots to 237,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 37,000 lots to 150,000 lots [10] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis (1) Nickel Ore Market - In July, nickel ore supply remained stable, and there is an expectation of a gradual loosening in the future. By the end of July, the average price of 1.5% CIF in the Philippines was $58/wet ton, down $2/wet ton from the end of last month. The domestic trade prices of some nickel ores in Indonesia were flat or slightly down. In June 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. From January to June 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [12][13] (2) Electrolytic Nickel/Electrowon Nickel Market - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. In July, the refined nickel output was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69%. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. The spot trading in July was cold, with the overall trading volume decreasing by 10% - 20% compared with June [19] (3) Ferronickel Market - From January to June, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.064 million nickel tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production increased by 27% year - on - year to 926,000 nickel tons. In June 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 1.041 million physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 5.5574 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.4%. In July, affected by the stainless - steel off - season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for NPI weakened, and the import volume is expected to decline compared with June [23][27] (4) Nickel Sulfate Market - In July, the nickel sulfate output was about 29,100 metal tons (equivalent to 1.322 million physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 17.30% and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. In August, due to the tightening of raw material supply, some nickel - salt production enterprises plan to continue to cut production or carry out maintenance, and the supply of nickel sulfate is expected to shrink [29] 3. Demand - Side of Fundamentals (1) Real Estate Sector - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - start area, and completion area of houses all decreased. The sales of commercial housing were basically stable, and the inventory continued to decrease. The real - estate sector is still in the process of destocking [33] (2) Automobile Sector - The 2025 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, the export of new - energy vehicles was 205,000, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the export was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [36][37] (3) Alloy and Electroplating Industry - The demand for nickel in the alloy and electroplating industry has been relatively stable in recent years. The demand for nickel beans in the new - energy sector has almost reached zero, so the proportion of pure - nickel demand in alloy and electroplating has gradually increased. In June 2025, the total pure - nickel consumption of domestic major nickel - based alloy enterprises was about 1,680 tons, an increase of 180 tons compared with May. The nickel consumption for electroplating in June was about 360 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared with March [40][42] 4. Market Outlook - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the support at the mine end will weaken. In the NPI market, although the nickel - iron price rebounded slightly at the end of the month, the stainless - steel sector is still sluggish. The demand for ternary batteries in the new - energy sector is still flat, and the recovery space of nickel - salt prices is limited. The macro - economic situation has not yet provided substantial support for the demand side. Overall, the nickel price will face pressure above, and the main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [45]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors, but ultimately fell due to oversupply conditions [1][2][9] Nickel Price Trends - In Q1, nickel prices rose to a high of 136,000 yuan/ton due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but in Q2, prices declined as oversupply became a concern [1] - Specific events influencing prices included Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction in January, trade tensions affecting demand in April, and subsequent policy changes in Indonesia and the Philippines [1][2] Policy Impact - Indonesian and Philippine nickel mining policies significantly affect nickel prices, with both countries accounting for nearly 70% of global nickel production by 2024 [2][3] - Policies can be categorized into "quantity" (e.g., RKAB quotas, export bans) and "price" (e.g., HMA price adjustments, increased resource usage fees), with quantity controls having a more immediate market impact [3] Supply Dynamics - Nickel production capacity is expected to continue growing, particularly in Indonesia, despite a slowdown in new project launches due to declining nickel prices [4][5] - The MHP production capacity is expanding, while the high-nickel battery market is facing challenges, leading to a subdued performance in the nickel sulfate market [4][5] Demand Outlook - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, is facing pressure due to high nickel iron costs and weak downstream consumption [7] - The electric vehicle sector, a key growth area for nickel demand, is experiencing increased competition, leading to a decline in the market share of ternary batteries [8] Market Forecast - The overall nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied, with prices likely to fluctuate between 110,000 and 128,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the new energy industry has made strategic mineral resources, particularly nickel, a new bargaining chip in international competition. Nickel is essential for various applications, especially in the electric vehicle and battery sectors, with demand expected to exceed 60% by 2030 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nickel Demand and Supply Dynamics - Nickel is primarily used in stainless steel production, with approximately 65% globally and 85% in China dedicated to this application. The demand for nickel in the battery sector has increased from 3% in 2010 to about 13% in 2023 [2]. - By 2030, the demand for nickel in new energy vehicles, energy storage batteries, and aerospace is projected to account for over 60% of total demand, with the market size for high-nickel ternary battery materials expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [1]. - Indonesia is the largest producer of nickel, holding 42% of global reserves, and is expected to produce 2.32 million tons of nickel by 2025, representing a 6.9% increase year-on-year [13][25]. Group 2: Global Nickel Market Trends - The global nickel market has experienced significant price volatility due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by geopolitical factors and the rapid growth of the electric vehicle industry [9][11]. - The nickel market is currently undergoing a restructuring phase, with strong companies increasing their resource and downstream investments, while weaker firms are likely to be eliminated [11][12]. - Indonesia's policies, including the ban on nickel ore exports, have transformed it from a raw material supplier to a key player in the nickel processing industry, significantly impacting global supply chains [25][36]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The future of nickel prices is closely tied to supply-demand relationships, with current oversupply issues expected to persist in the short term. However, long-term trends will depend on the balance between production and consumption [12][65]. - Indonesia's nickel production policies are expected to continue influencing global nickel prices, with potential increases in production costs due to regulatory changes [68][70]. - The nickel industry faces challenges such as declining ore grades and increasing environmental standards, which may affect production costs and market dynamics in the future [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Core View The report analyzes the cost support levels of nickel prices under different processes to understand the main drivers of the recent decline in nickel prices and provide a reference for future trends. Currently, the RKEF + converter route for producing pure nickel is in a slight loss, while the oxygen-enriched side-blowing and wet processes still have some profit. In the short term, the cost of the relatively high-cost RKEF + converter route serves as the marginal support line for nickel prices. The decline in nickel prices below this cost line is mainly due to weak downstream demand, low valuations in the middle and downstream sectors, and market expectations of a decline in ore prices [2][6][13]. 2. Summary by Section Fire Process - **Production Routes**: The main routes for producing high-grade nickel matte using the fire process are the RKEF + converter route represented by Tsingshan and the oxygen-enriched side-blowing route represented by Zhongwei, both using high-grade nickel ore as the main raw material [5]. - **Ore Price Increase**: The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen from about $33.4/ton at the beginning of the year to $52.9/ton, a increase of 58.4%, driving up the cost of high-grade nickel matte [5]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of producing refined nickel by the RKEF + converter process is highly correlated with the price of nickel pig iron (NPI), with an additional processing cost of $25,000 - $30,000. Currently, the median cost of producing high-grade nickel matte by the RKEF + converter process in Indonesia is about $13,000/metal ton, corresponding to a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 121,000 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The oxygen-enriched side-blowing process has relatively lower costs, about $2,000/metal ton lower than the RKEF + converter process, with a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 105,000 yuan/ton, still having some profit [6]. Wet Process - **Production Growth**: The HPAL wet process uses low-grade nickel ore as raw material, with obvious cost advantages. Since 2024, the production of MHP in Indonesia has increased rapidly, with the highest monthly production reaching 40,500 tons of nickel metal. It is expected that the annual production of MHP in Indonesia will reach 489,000 tons of nickel metal in 2025 [8]. - **Cost Increase**: Short - term sulfur shortages have led to a slowdown in MHP marginal production. The current cost of MHP in Indonesia has risen to about $11,800/metal ton, equivalent to an integrated MHP cost of about 112,000 yuan/nickel. Considering by - products, the actual cost may be lower [10]. 3. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are fluctuating in a range due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations, and stainless - steel prices are also oscillating within a certain range as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,710, with changes of 510 compared to T - 1, 1,610 compared to T - 5, - 70 compared to T - 10, - 920 compared to T - 22, and - 6,840 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 115,890, with changes of 17,270 compared to T - 1, - 29,664 compared to T - 5, 37,143 compared to T - 10, - 28,588 compared to T - 22, and - 218,077 compared to T - 66 [1] - The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,640, with changes of - 40 compared to T - 1, - 45 compared to T - 5, - 235 compared to T - 10, - 65 compared to T - 22, and - 745 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 76,193, with changes of 645 compared to T - 1, - 48,330 compared to T - 5, - 63,919 compared to T - 10, - 47,658 compared to T - 22, and - 125,868 compared to T - 66 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data** - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,700, with changes of 400 compared to T - 1, 1,525 compared to T - 5, - 500 compared to T - 10, - 1,150 compared to T - 22, and - 6,875 compared to T - 66. The Russian nickel premium is 700, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 250 compared to T - 5, 350 compared to T - 10, 450 compared to T - 22, and 800 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 949, with changes of - 2 compared to T - 1, - 5 compared to T - 5, - 2 compared to T - 10, 1 compared to T - 22, and - 46 compared to T - 66. The price difference between nickel plates and high - nickel iron is 278, with changes of 6 compared to T - 1, 20 compared to T - 5, - 3 compared to T - 10, - 12 compared to T - 22, and - 23 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 50 compared to T - 5, - 100 compared to T - 10, 0 compared to T - 22, and - 250 compared to T - 66. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 0 compared to T - 5, 0 compared to T - 10, 50 compared to T - 22, and 0 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,815, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 100 compared to T - 5, - 200 compared to T - 10, - 300 compared to T - 22, and 415 compared to T - 66. The nickel sulfate premium is 821, with changes of - 88 compared to T - 1, - 436 compared to T - 5, - 90 compared to T - 10, - 47 compared to T - 22, and 1,928 compared to T - 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [2] - An overseas nickel smelter in an important metal - processing park in Indonesia has resumed production. The plant's production almost stopped in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4] - In February, Philippine media reported that the parliament was discussing a bill to ban nickel - ore exports, which is in the review stage of the two - house committee. Once signed into law, it will take effect in 5 years. On May 9, there was news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel - ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [4] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance and halt production from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the output of 300 - series products. The mill cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Group 1: Bilateral Cooperation and Trade - The year 2025 marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Indonesia, coinciding with the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, highlighting significant historical milestones [1] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between China and Indonesia is projected to reach approximately $147.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, with China being Indonesia's largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years [1] - The first Global High-Quality Belt and Road Summit was held in Jakarta on May 25, 2024, emphasizing sustainable infrastructure and development goals [1] Group 2: Nickel Industry Development - Indonesia is a major player in the global nickel supply, with its nickel production surging from 1.04 million tons in 2021 (38% of global production) to 1.8 million tons in 2023, exceeding 50% of global output [9] - The export value of nickel products from Indonesia has increased significantly, from $1 billion in 2014 to $20.9 billion in 2023, indicating a shift from raw material exports to high-value nickel processing products [9] - Chinese companies, such as Greeenme and Huayou Cobalt, are heavily investing in Indonesia's nickel mining and processing sectors, establishing a full industrial chain from nickel resource development to battery manufacturing [5][7] Group 3: Sustainable Development and Green Technology - The Belt and Road Initiative is positioned as a pathway for both open and green development, promoting cooperation in green infrastructure, energy, and transportation [10] - A joint research laboratory for new energy materials and metallurgy technology was established in Bandung, Indonesia, with an investment of $30 million, aimed at advancing sustainable mining and resource utilization [8] - The adoption of high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) technology for nickel production is highlighted for its lower carbon emissions compared to traditional methods, aligning with global trends towards green and low-carbon resources [11]

Report Title - Nickel: Short-term cost support, weak expectations limit flexibility [1] - Stainless Steel: Negative feedback leads to an increase in marginal production cuts, making a deep decline difficult [2] Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has short-term cost support, but weak expectations limit its upward flexibility [1] - The stainless steel market experiences negative feedback, resulting in an increase in marginal production cuts, and it is difficult for prices to decline significantly [2] Fundamental Tracking Nickel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 120,480, down 2,920 from T - 5 and 3,700 from T - 22 [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 181,192, up 79,974 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 1 imported nickel is 120,375, down 3,175 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 954, up 5 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 250, down 37 from T - 5 [2] - The nickel plate import profit is - 2,830, up 382 from T - 5 [2] Stainless Steel - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,690, down 190 from T - 5 [2] - The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract is 139,550, up 21,935 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,100, down 75 from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, unchanged from T - 5 [2] - The price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) is 12,775, unchanged from T - 5 [2] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will take effect on April 26, 2025 [2] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [3] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial production stage, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [5] - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [5] - The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the government plans to implement an export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue the shutdown and maintenance from June to July, which may affect 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7] - The trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]

Core Insights - The current spot price of electrolytic nickel in Shanghai is reported at 123,300.00 CNY/ton, with a premium of 1,130.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows a closing price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton for the main contract, reflecting a decrease of 0.55% [2] - Nickel inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, with a cumulative reduction of 1,022 tons (4.42%) over the past week and 2,680 tons (10.81%) over the past month [3] Price Overview - The market prices for 1 nickel (Ni9990) vary, with quotes of 124,750 CNY/ton in Guangzhou, 125,000 CNY/ton in Shanghai from Shanghai Jincang Material Company, and 123,350 CNY/ton from Shanghai Huato Nonferrous Metals Market [2] - The ex-factory price for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is reported at 124,300 CNY/ton in Jinchang, Gansu Province [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic nickel pig iron supply has significantly decreased year-on-year, while Indonesian supply remains high [4] - April saw an increase in electrolytic nickel production, and stainless steel production remained at high levels [4] - The demand outlook may be affected by ongoing trade disputes, but short-term improvements in macroeconomic conditions are anticipated to support prices [4]