1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, nickel prices rose significantly due to concerns about raw material supply caused by Indonesia's quota issue. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices partially dropped slightly, shipping freight decreased, and ore inventory was at a high level. With the arrival of the rainy season, ore supply decreased, and mines held firm on prices. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventory declined and was short - term affected by nickel prices. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel market is expected to maintain a supply - surplus pattern dominated by Indonesia's low - cost production capacity in the long - term. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity at low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is strong. Short - sellers should wait and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box range [8][9]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel market will operate with a slight upward trend. Short - sellers should wait for the moment [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes | Product | This Week | Last Week | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% | 54 | 54 | 0.00% | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% | 47 | 48 | - 2.08% | | Battery - grade nickel sulfate | 26350 | 26350 | 0.00% | | Electro - plating grade nickel sulfate | 29750 | 29750 | 0.00% | | Low - nickel iron (Shandong) | 3300 | 3300 | 0.00% | | High - nickel iron (Shandong) (yuan/nickel point) | 910 | 895 | 1.68% | | Shanghai electrolytic nickel | 134550 | 123850 | 8.64% | | Shanghai Russian nickel | 127400 | 117600 | 8.33% | | Jinchuan ex - factory price | 133200 | 123600 | 7.77% | | 304 stainless steel | 13600 | 13437.5 | 1.21% | [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - Some nickel ore prices dropped by 1 US dollar/wet ton this week, and shipping freight decreased by 1.5 US dollars/wet ton. - As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. - In November 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. From January to November 2025, the total nickel ore imports were 40.2704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.10%. - Nickel ore transactions were fair this week. With the arrival of the rainy season, mine shipments decreased significantly, and there was an expectation of rising ore prices. The rebound in downstream nickel iron prices eased the pressure on ore price reduction [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - Nickel prices rose significantly this week, and downstream buyers were highly cautious. Some producers cut production, and imported supplies were tight, causing the spot premium to rise. The import window opened this week, and traders locked in prices. - In the long - and medium - term, the global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide support. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 381,727 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27.34%. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,929 tons or 30.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,676 tons or 40.86%. Exports were 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,741 tons or 20.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 87 tons or 0.80%. - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 826 tons to 44,454 tons [22][25][26][29][32][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - According to MySteel data, low - nickel iron prices remained flat at 3,300 yuan/ton, and high - nickel iron prices rose by 15 yuan/nickel to 910 yuan/nickel. - In November 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. - In November 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13,000 tons or 1.4%. From January to November 2025, the total imports were 10.153 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.171 million tons or 27.2%. - In November, the negotiable nickel iron inventory was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [43][44][46][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market - The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four regions) rose by 162.5 yuan/ton this week. - In November, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, of which the production of 200 - series was 1.042 million tons, 400 - series was 689,400 tons, and 300 - series was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. - The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. - As of December 26, the inventory in Wuxi was 570,900 tons, in Foshan was 283,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,000 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 631,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons [57][58][61][64][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the market share of new energy vehicles in total new vehicle sales reached 53.2%. - In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh. The total production of power + energy - storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rose significantly and moved away from the 20 - day moving average. In terms of positions, the long - side force was strong, and the position - increasing force was large, indicating a short - term strong trend. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. Short - sellers should wait and see if the previous top provides effective support. If the price falls back to the previous box range, they can consider short - selling [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel ore**: Neutral to strong. Transactions were fair, and concerns about reduced raw material supply due to Indonesia's quota issue [82]. - **Nickel iron**: Neutral. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line moved up [82]. - **Refined nickel**: Neutral. Short - term production cuts reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remained, and inventory was at a high level [82]. - **Stainless steel**: Neutral. Inventory declined, and costs increased [82]. - **New energy**: Neutral. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [82].

Summary of Nickel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The nickel industry is currently experiencing significant changes due to Indonesia's policy adjustments, particularly the RKB policy, which aims to control nickel ore approvals and address smelting capacity oversupply. This could lead to supply shortages by 2026 if quotas are strictly limited to 250 million tons [1][3] - Indonesia is projected to account for 60% of global nickel production in 2024, increasing to 65% in 2025, driven by substantial investments in smelting capacity by Chinese enterprises since 2020 [2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply Dynamics**: The supply of nickel is primarily composed of sulfide nickel ore and laterite nickel ore, with a current ratio of approximately 3:7. The tightening of approvals and illegal mining crackdowns are expected to impact supply significantly [2] - **Price Movements**: The price of fire-refined nickel has increased from $30/ton to $50/ton, raising the metal cost by approximately $2,000. Continued strict enforcement of control measures may further elevate central prices [4] - **Demand Drivers**: Nickel demand is mainly driven by stainless steel (70%) and ternary batteries (13%). The growth of stainless steel demand is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions, with potential year-on-year growth of up to 10% when global manufacturing PMI rises [11] - **Market Transition**: The nickel market transitioned from structural oversupply to overall oversupply in 2023, with profitability shifting from producing nickel sulfate to producing electrolytic nickel [8] - **Future Outlook**: The Indonesian government's policies are expected to provide new cost support, with potential for a short-term price surge in early 2026 due to positive macro expectations [9] Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Nickel is considered a high-risk, high-reward investment, particularly in the current market context. Companies like Huayou Cobalt are highlighted, with profit elasticity exceeding $1.2 billion for every $1,000 increase in nickel prices [12] - **Historical Context**: From 2020 to 2022, the nickel industry faced a supply shortage due to macro demand recovery and rapid development in new energy sectors, leading to a continuous rise in nickel prices [7] - **Regulatory Changes**: Starting from October 2025, previously approved quotas will be invalidated, requiring companies to reapply annually, allowing for more flexible adjustments to the RKB approval process [3] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the nickel industry, emphasizing the impact of Indonesian policies, market dynamics, and investment potential.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the stock price of Lygend Resources (02245), which has risen over 4% and accumulated a gain of over 23% in the past four trading days, currently priced at HKD 19.74 with a trading volume of HKD 35.7043 million [1] Group 2 - Recent policy adjustments in Indonesia aim to stabilize nickel prices, including reducing the RKAB quota from 37.9 million tons to 25 million tons, imposing taxes on cobalt, and enhancing environmental regulations, which have stimulated a rebound in nickel prices [1] - Concerns arise regarding the potential lack of raw materials for nickel projects set to launch in Indonesia next year, which could lead to a significant increase in nickel ore prices [1] - The credibility of Indonesia's policies is slightly low, and further developments should be monitored [1] Group 3 - Lygend Resources has established a comprehensive industrial chain covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, and equipment manufacturing and sales [1] - The company has signed long-term trade and supply agreements with mining companies in the Philippines and Indonesia, and has developed a nickel production capacity of 400,000 metal tons on OBI Island, Indonesia [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its wet-process capacity in Indonesia and has potential for expanding its nickel industry chain layout, which could drive performance and valuation increases [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis of various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding trend forecasts and trading suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5][7]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5][7]. - **Platinum**: ETF holdings increased marginally, and the price center shifted upward, with a trend strength of 1 [25][27]. - **Palladium**: After a slight retreat, it resumed its upward momentum, with a trend strength of 1 [25][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot weakness restricts price increases, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9][11]. - **Zinc**: Trading in a sideways range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again, with a trend strength of 1 [2][17][21]. - **Aluminum**: Trading within a range, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina is continuing to bottom out, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22][24]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel has weak supply - demand fundamentals and is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news, with a trend strength of 0 [29][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is mainly to short on rallies, with a trend strength of -1 [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Trading within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro risk appetite has been boosted again, and it is trading at a high level in a volatile range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and prices are firm, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][45][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 0; Manganese silicon has a game between long and short sentiments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Trading in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][52][55]. - **Log**: Trading at a low level in a volatile range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - **Para - Xylene**: The trend is relatively strong, with a trend strength of 1; PTA is strongly supported by cost, with a trend strength of 1; MEG is trading within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][61][65]. - **Rubber**: Trading in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][68][69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Gradually entering an oscillating pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][73][75]. - **Asphalt**: Trading at a low level in a volatile range, and geopolitical factors should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][76][83]. - **LLDPE**: Some full - density products are switched in production, and valuation support is limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][87][88]. - **PP**: PDH profit has recovered month - on - month, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][89][91]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the later stage, with a trend strength of 0 [2][92][95]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][97][99]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [2][108][109]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][111][114]. - **Urea**: Trading in an oscillating pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][115][118]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short term, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][119]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend strength of 0 [2][124][125]. - **LPG**: The short - term trend is weak, with a trend strength of - 1; Propylene has an expectation of supply reduction and demand increase, and the short - term trend has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][127][131]. - **PVC**: The trend is weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][135][136]. - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly trading in an oscillating pattern, with support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 0; Low - sulfur fuel oil was strong at night, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded slightly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][138]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May rebound in the short term, but overall it is oscillating and bottom - seeking, with a trend strength of 0; Soybean oil is weakly running, and it is difficult to stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [2][166][167][171]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0; Soybean No.1 is oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][172][174]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend strength of 0 [2][175][178]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot trading is light, with a trend strength of 0 [2][179][184]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend strength of 0 [2][186]. - **Hogs**: The weakness of the spot market is emerging, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][188][193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend strength of 0 [2][195][197]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the delivery opportunities for the 02 contract, maintain rolling short - selling for the 04 contract, and focus on the progress of the peace talks in Gaza for the far - month contracts, with a trend strength of 0 [2][140][155]. Fibers - **Short - Cut Fiber**: Following the raw materials in the short term, with processing fees being compressed, with a trend strength of 0; Bottle chips are following the raw materials in the short term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][156][157]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: The strategy is to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [2][159]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating mainly in the short term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][163][164].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Indonesian government has significantly reduced its nickel ore production target for 2026 to approximately 250 million tons, down over one-third from the 379 million tons planned for 2025, aiming to stabilize nickel prices [1] - The Indonesian government is strengthening its maritime and mining regulatory oversight, with new regulations reducing the approval cycle for the RKAB policy from three years to one year, increasing market expectations for future tightness in ore supply [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that nickel prices will rebound to $15,500 per ton by 2026, with supply and demand expected to grow simultaneously [2] Group 2 - Company, Liqian Resources, primarily operates in the nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain, including upstream nickel resource integration, laterite nickel ore and nickel product trading, and the production of nickel compounds and nickel iron, with a wet nickel production capacity of 120,000 tons [2] - The optimistic long-term supply outlook for nickel is leading to a reassessment of the value of Liqian Resources as a core participant in the industry chain [2] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for the entire industrial metals sector, with the Federal Reserve recently announcing a 25 basis point rate cut and plans to purchase a large amount of short-term debt, which is expected to continue in the coming year, enhancing the attractiveness of commodities priced in USD [2]

1. Reported Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment is positive, and it will operate at a high level in the short - term [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of news [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 113,800, with a change of - 3,290 compared to T - 5. The stainless - steel main contract's closing price is 12,380, with a change of - 175 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads are also presented [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine area, which is expected to affect monthly nickel production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the government restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia will reduce production, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [4][5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract is 106,820, with an increase of 12,740 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain are provided [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. Due to environmental protection reasons in Hubei, some phosphorus - chemical enterprises reduced or suspended production, which may affect the supply of upstream materials for new - energy batteries [9][10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,470, with an increase of 220 compared to T - 5. The PS2605 contract's closing price is 61,595, with an increase of 5,680 compared to T - 5. Data on inventory, cost, price, and profit in the industrial - silicon and polysilicon industries are also given [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Turkish and German companies plan to build a solar - cell and silicon - wafer production plant in Turkey [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus shows a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices fluctuate at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mining right cancellation is limited, but sentiment may be supported [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The strategy is mainly to short on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Some companies have raised their quotes, and attention should be paid to actual transactions [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 112,290, down 2,400 from the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,320, down 160 from the previous day [4]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 112,350, down 2,700 from the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi, Taiyuan/Zhangpu) was 13,250, down 50 from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4]. - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [5]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [5]. - Indonesia's OSS platform suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses [7]. - Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia's industrial park will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 98,740, down 360 from the previous day; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 100,600, down 460 from the previous day [9]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850, up 700 from the previous day; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,700, up 80 from the previous day [9]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose by 724 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [10]. - Jiangxi Special Electric Co., Ltd.'s mining right in the Shiziling mining area may be cancelled, and the company is striving to renew it and promote the production of the Xikeng lithium mine [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,365, up 15 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,600, up 570 from the previous day [13]. - **Price and Profit**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,750, unchanged from the previous day; the profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,919.5 yuan/ton, down 85 from the previous day [13]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 56.1 tons, with an increase of 0.3 tons compared with a week ago; the polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 29.3 tons, with an increase of 0.2 tons compared with a week ago [13]. Macro and Industry News In 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14%, and the total social electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time [13][15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of nickel shows no obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply and demand in December 2025 are expected to remain loose. LME inventory stays at a high level, suppressing nickel prices. The actual improvement in supply and demand may only be reflected from the second quarter of 2026. Nickel prices are expected to be weak overall, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and caution when chasing short positions. Attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 16, 2025, Shanghai nickel prices dropped by more than 2.4%, breaking through the low of 12,100 yuan/ton. The sharp decline was mainly due to high inventory pressure. LME inventory has remained above 250,000 tons for about two months, and both LME inventory and Shanghai nickel orders increased again. The fundamental surplus indicates a further growth trend in inventory. Nornickel raised its nickel supply forecast for 2025 to 240,000 tons and for 2026 to 275,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In November 2025, the domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased by about 28% month - on - month to 26,800 tons, showing a significant marginal narrowing, but it was not enough to improve the fundamental surplus. In November, the production of MHP, ferronickel, and nickel matte in Indonesia all increased year - on - year, and the overall supply pressure of nickel remained. - Demand side: Entering the traditional consumption off - season, the spot market trading weakened after the previous phased replenishment. Stainless steel production decreased month - on - month, and the demand for electrolytic nickel and alloys is also expected to decline. China's implementation of stainless steel export license management may lead to a "rush to export" in the short term but may also overdraft exports in January 2026, causing a phased decline or slowdown in exports at the beginning of 2026. The overall fundamental surplus persists, with LME inventory increasing by 860 tons to 253,400 tons and Shanghai nickel inventory increasing by 2,622 tons to 37,900 tons, which suppresses nickel prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - The current fundamental situation of nickel shows no obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply and demand in December are expected to remain loose. LME inventory stays at a high level, suppressing prices. There are many supply - side interference policies in resource - producing countries, and the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia needs to be continuously tracked. The market expects a slight decline in the quota. The actual improvement in supply and demand may only be reflected from the second quarter of 2026. Nickel prices are expected to be weak overall, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and caution when chasing short positions. Attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia [4]

打节 | 【公司 库存高位压制 镍价破位下行 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 投资咨询号:Z0021455 投资咨询号:Z0022534 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 最新动态及原因 2025年12月16日，沪银大幅下跌超2.4%。盘中一度跌破1.21万/吨的低位。辖破位下跌主要受到库存高位压制，LME库存已于25万吨以上维持约2个月。且昨日LME库存和沪接食单均再 度出现一定程度的累积。基本面过剩下库存仍有进一步增长趋势。此外，据金十数据12月15日讯，Nornickel周一表示已将今年银供应该测预测上调一倍至24万吨，并将26年预测从13万吨上调 至27.5万吨。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端，国内电镜 11月产量环比大减约28%至2.68万吨。 出现较为阴显边际收窄， 但尚不足以有效改善基本面过剩，同时印尼11月MHP、冰银和银钱产量均维持同比增长、整 体银供给端压力仍存。需求端进入传统消费淡季，现货市场在前期完成阶段性补货后成交有所走弱，不锈钢排产环比逐步走弱，电银和合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a strong oscillation due to the interplay between macroeconomic expectations and fundamental realities, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated to continue [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of last week, the nickel market has shown a strong oscillation trend influenced by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and record-high copper prices, which have collectively boosted the non-ferrous metal sector [1] - Despite some nickel companies reducing production capacity leading to marginal improvements, the overall market fundamentals remain weak, with both the stainless steel and new energy sectors showing signs of fatigue [1] Group 2: Price Expectations - The overall trading performance in the nickel market has been average, and market forecasts suggest that nickel prices may continue to exhibit a fluctuating pattern in the short term [1]