1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: The inventory accumulation pace has slightly slowed down, but the long - term logic of low - cost wet - process supply increase still exists. Short - term macro and news factors may lead to some price repairs. The upward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Indonesian news [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. The market is affected by macro factors and concerns about Indonesian policies. Short - term low - level short - selling has risks [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the bottom of the disk has obvious support. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy at low prices, and pay attention to whether the organic silicon enterprises can implement joint production cuts [33]. - **Polysilicon**: As it approaches the centralized cancellation period, the reduction of warehouse receipts may boost the near - month contracts. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, and short - term long - position layout at low prices is recommended [34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: At the end of the month, the expectations of downstream replenishment and mine resumption intensify the long - short game. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in November and the price center will decline in December [66]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the inventory accumulation contradiction still exists, but the marginal slowdown is due to the reduction of domestic refined nickel production in November. The long - term supply increase expectation of low - cost wet - process remains. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak with high upstream inventory, weak terminal demand, and a supply - demand situation of slight surplus [4][5]. - **Inventory Tracking**: Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased, LME nickel inventory increased. In the new energy sector, the inventory days of some products changed. In the nickel - iron and stainless - steel sector, the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless - steel increased to varying degrees [6][7]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as mine take - over, sanctions on mining companies, and policy changes regarding RKAB. China has suspended a non - official subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia will reduce production due to safety inspections [8][9][11]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related products [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first rose and then fell, with the spot price rising. Polysilicon's futures price also first rose and then fell, while the spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's industry inventory increased slightly this week, with production decreasing in the southwest and slightly increasing in Gansu. The demand is in a weak rigid - demand pattern. Polysilicon's upstream inventory increased, with some production cuts expected in the future [29][30]. - **Market Views**: For industrial silicon, the futures warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the disk has support. A long - position strategy at low prices is recommended. For polysilicon, as it approaches the cancellation period, the near - month contracts may rise. A short - term long - position layout at low prices is recommended [33][34]. - **Data and Charts**: The report presents a large number of data and charts on the prices, production, inventory, and consumption of industrial silicon and polysilicon and their related products [37][39][40] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract had large fluctuations this week, with the price center rising. The spot price also increased [64]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The raw material side has news of mine resumption expectations. The weekly production increased, and the inventory reduction speed slowed down [65]. - **Market Views**: The long - short game is intensifying at the end of the month. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in November and the price center will decline in December. A positive - spread arbitrage strategy is recommended for the inter - period operation, and upstream producers are recommended to carry out selling hedging, while downstream enterprises are recommended to reduce the hedging ratio [66][68]. - **Data and Charts**: The report provides data and charts on the prices, production, inventory, and consumption of lithium carbonate and related products [70][74][85]

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of nickel is under short - term pressure, and the medium - to long - term transformation still needs to wait. The short - term cost line of nickel is loosening, the price of nickel iron is declining, but the ore price remains firm. The downstream demand is weak, and the production growth of stainless steel is limited. The substitution ratio of other batteries in the automotive field on the battery side is increasing in the short term, but there are certain expectations for the batteries of drones and robots in the future. Refined nickel may have short - term production reduction expectations, but its production is expected to increase in the medium - to long - term if there are profits. The price of stainless steel may continue to be under pressure and should be observed in conjunction with the price of nickel iron [1][66]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The report does not provide a detailed review of the Shanghai nickel price trend, but focuses on the supply - demand balance, new energy industry chain, and stainless steel industry chain [2][3] 2. Global Supply - Demand Balance - From 2020 to 2025E, the total supply of primary nickel is expected to increase from 2.56 million tons to 3.69 million tons, and the total demand is expected to increase from 2.43 million tons to 3.58 million tons. The production of pure nickel, nickel iron, and primary nickel salts shows different trends. For example, the production of NPI in China is decreasing, while that in Indonesia is increasing [5] 3. New Energy Industry Chain 3.1 New Energy Vehicles - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, the production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7% [8] 3.2 Power Batteries - In October 2025, the production and sales of power and other batteries were 170.6GWh and 166GWh respectively, with month - on - month increases of 12.9% and 13.3% and year - on - year increases of 50.5% and 50.8%. From January to October, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 578GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42.4%. In October, the single - month installed capacity was 84.1GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 10.7% and a year - on - year increase of 42.1% [11] 3.3 Nickel Sulfate - In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate physical output was 228,600 tons, and the metal output was 50,300 tons (new sample), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%. In November, the expected metal output was 49,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous week, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged [14] 4. Stainless Steel Industry Chain 4.1 Nickel Ore - In November 2024, the total inventory of nickel ore in 14 ports in China was 15.0949 million wet tons, with an increase of 1.88%. In September 2025, the import volume of nickel ore was 6.1145 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 33.91%. The ore price remained stable this week, and the RKAB quota in Indonesia was 319 million tons, with an expected loose supply [21] 4.2 Nickel Iron - The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged, while the price of high - nickel iron decreased. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 22,900 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 5.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In September 2025, the import volume of nickel iron was 1.085 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.2% [25][28][31] 4.3 Stainless Steel - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 112.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In October, the production of stainless steel crude steel was 3.4267 million tons, and the inventory increased. The production cost of cold - rolled stainless steel also showed certain changes [40][44][47] 5. Pure Nickel Market 5.1 Refined Nickel Production - In October 2025, China's refined nickel production was 33,345 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. The estimated production in November was 32,710 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [54] 5.2 Refined Nickel Import and Export - In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17.29% and a year - on - year increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.22% and a year - on - year increase of 36.94% [57] 5.3 Inventory - The LME inventory decreased by 1,014 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 3,386 tons. The total social inventory increased by 3,563 tons compared with before the holiday [60]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - **Important Information**: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - **Related Information**: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - **Related Information**: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - **Related Information**: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - **Related Information**: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - **Related Information**: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - **Important Information**: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - **Related Information**: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - **Logic Analysis**: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - **Logic Analysis**: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 9, 2025 [3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes three main parts: Market Review, Fundamental Analysis, and Future Outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section focuses on the price trend of the nickel futures主力合约 [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore at ports [10] - **Midstream**: Covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, the monthly import volume of ferronickel, and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from Fubao [13][15][18] - **Downstream**: Analyzes the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles [20][28][30] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on the 29th local time, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.3%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [35] - The nickel futures in Shanghai showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were stable with average trading. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of Typhoon "Seagull", supply was affected, while the Indonesian nickel ore market supply was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream ternary sales, but its medium - term strength remains to be seen. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel主力合约 is approximately 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel主力合约 is about 12,200 - 13,100 yuan/ton [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume, mainly affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price remained firm, the nickel iron price continued to decline, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Views and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price declined, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes** - Nickel ore prices (red clay nickel ore with different grades) remained unchanged compared to last week. The price of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate also remained unchanged. The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same, while the high - nickel iron price decreased by 0.53%. The price of electrolytic nickel (Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price) decreased, and the 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 0.36% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Conditions** - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and the freight remained the same as last week. As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.26%. The imported nickel ore volume in September 2025 decreased by 3.66% month - on - month but increased by 33.91% year - on - year. The northern Philippines had a tender with a firm price, and the rainy season in Surigao was approaching [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions** - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume. In the long - term, the supply and demand will both increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary materials in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import and export volume also changed, with an increase in imports and a decrease in exports in September 2025 compared to the previous month. The LME and SHFE inventories increased [22][26][30]. - **Nickel Iron Market Conditions** - The nickel iron price declined. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The nickel iron import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in September 2025 was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - **Stainless - Steel Market Conditions** - The 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week. In September 2025, the stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with an increase in the 300 - series production. The import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the national stainless - steel inventory increased by 370 tons [59][65][71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales** - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%. In September 2025, the total battery production was 151.2 GWh, and the power battery loading volume was 76.0 GWh [75][78]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. During the price decline this week, there was obvious position - increasing, and position - reducing occurred around 120,000. The MACD direction was not clear, and the KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area [81]. 4. Industry Chain Sorting Summary - **Fundamental View** - Nickel ore: Neutral, with stable quotes, flat freight, and the approaching rainy season. - Nickel iron: Neutral, with a stable - to - decreasing price and a certain decline in the cost line. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish, with the long - term surplus pattern remaining unchanged and continuous inventory build - up at home and abroad. - Stainless - steel: Neutral, with a slight increase in inventory. - New energy: Neutral, with good production data and a year - on - year increase in ternary battery loading [84]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86][87].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals market, particularly focusing on copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and aluminum sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Copper Market - The copper market is facing supply tightness, with several mining companies lowering production guidance, leading to a year-on-year production decline of approximately 104,000 tons in Q3 2025, potentially reaching 150,000 tons by year-end [3][4]. - The anticipated new supply for 2026 is limited to about 300,000 tons, with Freeport's recovery not meeting expectations, which could exacerbate supply issues [4]. - Demand for copper remains strong, driven by a 4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in the U.S., particularly in power equipment [6]. - Copper prices are expected to break through the $14,000 to $15,000 per ton range by early 2026 [7]. Rare Earths - The relaxation of rare earth export controls is expected to lead to significant overseas restocking, replicating the substantial export increases seen in Q3 2025 [1][9]. - Domestic regulations on imported ore smelting are tightening, with non-compliant smelting plants facing consolidation or shutdown, which will support the fundamentals of the rare earth market [10]. - Key companies recommended include China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [10]. Lithium Market - The lithium market is projected to shift from marginal oversupply to tightness, with expected storage demand growth of 80% in 2026 [11]. - Following a production halt by CATL, inventory depletion has been significant, with weekly reductions increasing from 1,000 tons to 3,000 tons due to surging storage orders [12]. - Companies to watch include Guocheng Mining, Dazhong Mining, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which are expected to benefit from price increases [12]. Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise, despite a current price drop to around 400,000 yuan, primarily due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The industry is expected to face a shortage of 20,000 to 30,000 tons of raw materials in 2026, pushing prices higher [14]. - Companies of interest include Huayou Cobalt, Li Qun Co., and Tengyuan Technology [15]. Nickel Market - The nickel market is closely tied to Indonesia's RKA B quota disclosures, as Indonesia controls 60% of global nickel supply [16]. - A lower-than-expected quota could lead to a slight increase in nickel prices, which are currently supported at $15,000 per ton [16]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum sector is experiencing upward momentum due to multiple catalysts, including potential shutdowns of major production facilities in the U.S. and Mozambique [17][18]. - China's aluminum exports account for nearly 40%, and the outlook for external demand is optimistic, particularly following recent monetary easing in the U.S. and Europe [18]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metals market is bullish, with expectations of a comprehensive bull market for both non-ferrous and ferrous metals in 2026 [2]. - The focus on energy transition and technological advancements in mining and smelting processes is expected to influence supply dynamics significantly [5][10].

Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - **Important Information**: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - **Related Information**: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - **Related Information**: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - **Important Information**: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - **Important Information**: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - **Important Information**: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price, which is oscillating at the bottom. If the inventory continues to rise, it's difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. In the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. Short - term advice is to wait and see. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In the nickel ore market, the overall trading atmosphere is fair this week. In the Philippines, due to the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas, the mine price is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term. In Indonesia, the new regulation on the approval cycle has accelerated the stockpiling of smelters, and the overall ore price is expected to remain stable or rebound slightly; the wet - process ore market is relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, the game between supply and demand sides of ferronickel intensifies, and the price is weak. The profit of iron plants is squeezed, and they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand from stainless - steel enterprises is weak, and they are pressing down on the price of ferronickel. With cost support, the decline space of ferronickel is limited, and attention should be paid to the change in the demand side of stainless steel [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the bargaining power of sellers has increased. The downstream industry has entered the peak demand season, and the demand for raw material procurement has been released. The downstream enterprises' acceptance of the high - price MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - **Refined nickel**: This week, the nickel price oscillated. Macroeconomic factors such as the US inflation data and Sino - US trade relations have affected market sentiment. The output of refined nickel remains high, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [11]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased. The spot parity and the three - month parity increased. The import loss decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased. The inventory of nickel plates increased, and that of nickel beans decreased [15]. - **Futures market**: The closing prices of LME and SHFE nickel decreased. The LME nickel open interest decreased, and the SHFE nickel open interest increased [15]. - **Nickel spot premium**: The domestic refined - nickel spot premium oscillated. As of October 25, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton compared with last week [23]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ferronickel price was weak, and the average price of domestic high - nickel pig iron decreased by 7 yuan/nickel point compared with last week. The sulfuric acid nickel price remained stable [27]. 3.3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The price of nickel ore remained stable with a slight increase. On October 24, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - earth nickel ore increased by 0.1 US dollars/wet ton compared with last week, and the price of 1.2% - grade ore remained unchanged. The price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore increased by 1 US dollar/wet ton [36]. - **Ferronickel**: The production profit of ferronickel is under pressure, and the profit situation varies in different regions [38][40]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply of market - available resources is tight, and the price and the transaction coefficient are relatively strong [46]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In September 2025, the national refined - nickel output remained at 37,000 tons, at a historically high level [51]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel market and downstream manufacturing and real - estate industries [53][55]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on the current situation of import and export are mentioned, but relevant historical data trends are presented [57]. - **Inventory**: The global visible inventory of nickel increased by 0.17% to 298,550 tons, and both China and LME saw inventory accumulation [61]. - **Cost**: The production cost and profit rate vary by different raw materials and processes [63]. 3.5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: The production and net import volume of sulfuric acid nickel in China are presented through historical data trends [67]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - **Cost and price**: The production cost and profit rate of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel vary by different raw materials [72]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and demand of nickel from 2023 to 2025 are forecasted. The total supply is expected to exceed the total demand, and the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in 2025 [78].