Economic Indicators - The US Services PMI unexpectedly contracted in May, dropping from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below market expectations of 52[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 to 48.5, also below the expected 49.5, indicating a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[2] - The New Orders Index for services plummeted from 52.3 to 46.4, reflecting a significant decline in demand[2] Inflation and Price Pressures - The Prices Index for services surged from 65.1 to 68.7, marking the highest expansion rate since late 2022, indicating inflationary pressures[2] - The Manufacturing Prices Index remained high at 69.4, despite a slight decrease from 69.8, suggesting persistent inflation in goods[2] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rates for the US are expected to decline from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, 1.3% in Q3, and 1% in Q4 of this year[2] - The PCE inflation rate is anticipated to rise from 2.5% in Q1 to 3% in Q3 and 2.9% in Q4[2] Policy Environment - The policy environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the next three months, with the White House likely to continue pressuring trade partners and the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate cuts[1] - Improvement in the policy environment is anticipated in Q4, with potential agreements with major trading partners and a return to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone[1] - The new orders index for May is at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, highlighting external demand's contribution to manufacturing recovery[1][5] - The production index rose to 50.7%, a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone[1][5] Supply Chain and Inventory - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating inventory adjustments in response to demand changes[1][5] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, suggesting stable delivery times despite the overall supply chain pressures[1][5] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, with significant growth in computer and communication equipment exports, where the export orders index exceeded 10% growth[2][9] - The electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors saw export order indices increase by over 10% in May, indicating strong external demand recovery[2][9] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns regarding the potential for increased recession risks in major overseas economies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[3][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific stocks and highlighting the overall investment value of the North Exchange market in 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a slight decline of 3.68% as of May 23, 2025, closing at 1370.04 points, while the average market capitalization of the 266 A-share constituent stocks is 2.936 billion [8][19]. - The report identifies key sectors with significant performance, including Environmental Protection (up 8.16%), Beauty Care (up 2.62%), and Construction Materials (up 0.97%), while sectors like Transportation and Public Utilities faced declines of -20.33% and -11.41% respectively [19][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable growth and reasonable valuations, recommending stocks such as Tongli Co., Ltd. and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment for their low valuations and potential benefits from infrastructure investments [2][3]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the North Exchange 50 Index showed a decline of 3.68%, while the average market capitalization of constituent stocks was 2.936 billion [8][19]. - The daily average trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was 35.949 billion, reflecting a 3.65% increase from the previous week [22]. Stock Performance - In the week from May 19 to May 23, 2025, 41 stocks rose, while 225 fell, indicating a 15.41% increase in the number of rising stocks, a decrease of 51.88% week-on-week [13][19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Recommended stocks include: - Tongli Co., Ltd. (stock code: 834599.BJ) with an EPS forecast of 1.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 10.66, rated as "Buy" [3]. - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (stock code: 835174.BJ) with an EPS forecast of 1.64 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 25.16, also rated as "Buy" [3]. - Other companies such as Kaide Quartz and Hualing Co., Ltd. are rated as "Hold" with potential for growth [3]. New Stock Updates - No new stocks were listed this week, but Yuli Intelligent submitted for registration, with upcoming meetings for Shichang Co. and Zhigao Machinery [25][27].

Economic Resilience and Growth - China's economy demonstrated significant resilience in April amidst a complex international environment, with multiple core indicators showing positive changes, indicating both resilience and structural breakthroughs [1] Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable recovery in consumption and an upgrade in service consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods showing a significant year-on-year growth, particularly in communication equipment and home appliances, which saw growth rates exceeding 19% and 13% respectively [3] - The trend towards green and smart products is evident, driven by policies such as trade-in programs, and offline consumption in leisure and dining sectors is also on the rise, reflecting an increasing attractiveness of the Chinese consumer market globally [3] Industrial Growth - Industrial growth is showing resilience, particularly in high-tech industries, with industrial added value and manufacturing growth exceeding 6%. The automotive manufacturing sector, especially in new energy vehicles, has seen remarkable growth [5] - Despite a decline in international commodity prices, the price drop in certain sectors is narrowing, indicating strong investment in infrastructure and equipment renewal, supported by a significant increase in local government bond issuance [5] Foreign Trade Dynamics - Foreign trade resilience is evident, with structural optimization occurring despite U.S. tariffs. Exports exceeded market expectations, particularly to ASEAN and India, while the share of exports to the U.S. is declining [7] - Policies supporting trade diversification have been effective, with integrated circuit exports showing a year-on-year growth of over 20% [7] Price Stability and Financial Environment - Overall price levels and the financial environment remain stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a shift from decline to increase in April, and core CPI remaining stable [9] - The financing scale in April indicates that net financing of government bonds has become a major driving force, with measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts injecting long-term liquidity into the economy [9] Future Outlook - The economic data from April suggests that new momentum is being cultivated amidst challenges, with a focus on boosting confidence, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing innovation to transform external pressures into opportunities for upgrading the economy [9]

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 从环比看，CPI由降转升，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食品、出行服务回升带动。 5月10日，国家统计局发布的物价数据显示，4月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比由上月下降0.4%转为上 涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%，降幅与上月相同；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.5%。 "4月CPI同比增速大致符合市场预期，环比增速由降转升至0.1%，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食 品、出行服务回升带动。4月PPI同比增速录得-2.7%，略好于市场预期，环比下降0.4%，主要受4月国际定价的大 宗商品价格下行等输入性因素影响，关税等国际经贸环境变化对PPI的影响暂未充分显现。"浙商证券首席经济学 家李超对《华夏时报》记者分析表示。 "虽然国际输入性因素对部分行业价格产生一定下拉影响，但我国经济基础稳、韧性强，各项宏观政策协同发力， 高质量发展扎实推进，部分领域价格呈现积极变化。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读数据时表示。 按照预测，二季度经济相较一季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低后稳的U型走势，物价回升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) in April, highlighting a shift in CPI from a decline to an increase, while PPI remains stable in its decline. The analysis indicates that various factors, including food prices and international commodity prices, are influencing these trends. CPI Analysis - In April, the CPI changed from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% remaining unchanged from the previous month [1][2] - The core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 0.5% year-on-year, maintaining stability [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points, with beef prices increasing by 3.9% due to reduced imports [5] - Travel service prices saw significant increases, with airfares up by 13.5% and hotel prices up by 4.5%, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to the CPI increase [5][3] - Year-on-year, energy prices fell by 4.8%, with gasoline prices down by 10.4%, significantly impacting the CPI [5] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline rate consistent with the previous month [6][7] - The decline in PPI is attributed to international factors affecting domestic prices, particularly in the oil and gas extraction sector, which saw a 3.1% decrease [9] - Seasonal declines in energy prices, particularly in coal mining, also contributed to the PPI decrease, with coal prices down by 3.3% [9] - Some industries are experiencing improved supply-demand relationships, leading to a narrowing of price declines, such as in the black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products sectors [10] Industry Trends - High-tech industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with wearable smart device manufacturing prices rising by 3.0% year-on-year [10][11] - Policies promoting consumption and equipment upgrades are showing effects, with prices in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors experiencing reduced declines [10] - The diversification of trade is expanding markets, leading to price increases or reduced declines in certain export industries, such as integrated circuit packaging [11]