主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：一德期货、持仓22392、增仓16730，中信期货、持仓53847、增仓5363，东证期 货、持仓45007、增仓2240；多头减仓前三名分别是：方正中期、持仓38492、减仓-15203，中信建投、持仓28703、减仓-14415， 银河期货、持仓29585、减仓-13702； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东方财富、持仓17216、增仓9232，中信建投、持仓27668、增仓8430，平安期 货、持仓23783、增仓7838；空头减仓前三名分别是：永安期货、持仓67074、减仓-47965，中信期货、持仓81958、减仓-41422， 国泰君安、持仓138340、减仓-37207。 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月21日收盘主力合约玻璃2509,涨跌+7.12%,成交量414.81万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为199388手。 玻璃期货全合约总计成交483.30万手，比上一日新增199.09万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓86.39万手，比上一日减少7.42万手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓113.39万手，比上一日减少14.27 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. It is estimated that there is a high possibility that the overall market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are selling well, while the price of stored apples is dropping and they are not selling well [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7650 - 7950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a national bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, they can short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7900 - 7950 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory and a new - crop apple减产, with a short spot position, they can buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. The market is likely to be volatile from June to August. Early - maturing apples have a higher opening price than last year and sell well, while stored apples have falling prices and poor sales [4]. Bullish Factors - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking speed have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5]. - Unstable weather in the producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing areas is poor, and there may be a significant减产 [8]. Bearish Factors - The overall减产 amplitude from bagging data is less than expected, and some data even shows an expected increase in production [8]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits like watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. Also, high - priced apples face a situation of "high price but no market", indicating weak consumption [6][8]. Apple Inventory and Market Data - On July 18, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 80.6 (with a weekly change of - 10.89), and according to Zhuochuang was 100.07 (with a weekly change of - 8.76). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu also decreased [9]. - The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong showed changes, such as 18 vehicles at Guangdong Chalong (a weekly increase of 2) [9]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On July 18, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) are provided, as well as the prices and price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the double - coking futures market may continue to fluctuate strongly. The warm macro - atmosphere, speculative demand, and strong rigid demand support the prices. However, in the medium - to - long term, the strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - For trading operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 800 - 980, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 32.68%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 63.89% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1400 - 1600, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.33%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 48.97% [3]. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging tool is J2509, the selling direction is recommended. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of rebar decreased by 7169 tons to 87431 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1754 tons to 60747 tons, coking coal decreased by 1100 hands to 500 hands, and ferrosilicon manganese decreased by 3441 sheets to 79931 sheets compared with the previous day [3]. - **No Change in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of iron ore remained at 3000 hands, coke remained at 760 hands, and ferrosilicon remained at 21950 sheets [3]. Core Contradictions - **Short - term Positive Factors**: The warm macro - atmosphere leads to a strong rebound in the double - coking futures market. Speculative demand enters the market, tightening spot liquidity and causing coal enterprises to raise prices. The second round of price increases by coking plants next week is likely to be implemented. Steel mills' demand for coking coal and coke procurement is strong, and both speculative and rigid demand support prices [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term Negative Factors**: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits. High hot - metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism [4]. Bullish Interpretations - Supply - side 2.0 disrupts market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and hot - metal production is unlikely to decrease in July. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [4] Bearish Interpretations - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal is increasing, and the subsequent arrival pressure is rising. [5] Double - Coking Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: There are differences in the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 878 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis is - 48.5 yuan/ton. The prices of various coking coal varieties have different daily and weekly changes [5]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, there are differences in the cost of coke warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. The current spot prices of coke in different regions also show certain changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke is 1030 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Related Ratios**: The current values of the coking profit ratio, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio are 73, 0.517, 2.073, and 1.619 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月18日 沥青供需结构有走弱趋势，周度产量同比增加28%，需求同比增长10%，库存结构上厂库累库社库去库，投 机需求走弱，贸易商开始主动降库存，山东华东基差因开工率增加而走弱，裂解价差仍然维持高位；目前看 供应端的增量略超预期，同时需求端仍受降雨影响处于淡季，整体基本面环比转弱，单边上因成本端原油表 现偏强所以绝对价格震荡走势，月差基差裂解均有一定程度走弱。中长期看，需求端将随着8月份南北方施工 条件转好，整体施工进入旺季，25年地方政府化债进度提速，资金方面有所缓解，正值"十四五"收尾阶段，项 目数量上有一定保证，旺季仍然可期。短期需关注下货流通情况，以及山东地区燃料油消费退返政策的具体 细节和真实性。 【利多解读】 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | ...

国债期货日报 2025年7月18日 日内反弹失败 观点：中期不看空，短期视股市节奏交易 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘低开，午盘一度趁股市回落试图反弹，午后股市走强令反弹失败，全线收跌。公开市场方面， 今日到期847亿，央行新做7天质押式回购1875亿，净投放1028亿元。 日内消息： T主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 T净基差：主连 T基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 source： 0 1 TL主力：净基差与基差 wind,南华研究 元 TL净基差：主连 TL基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 06/30 TS主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS净基差：主连 TS基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0.2 0 0.2 1.报道称欧盟起草对美服务业关税清单，为贸易战升级做准备。 2.美国将对从中国进口的关键电池材料石墨加征93.5%的反倾销税， ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/18 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 7月10日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增80.15万吨一如预期 7月10日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增27.19万吨，较之前一周减少46%，较前四周均值减少39%，市 场此前预估为净增20.0万吨至净增60.0万吨。 当周，美国下一市场年度大豆出口销售净增52.96万吨，市场此前预估为净增15.0万吨至净增40.0万吨。 当周，美豆出口装船为27.64万吨，较之前一周减少30%，较此前四周均值减少8%。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售30.06万吨。美国下一市场年度大豆新销售52.98万吨。 7月10日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增53.05万吨一如预期 7月10日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增35.65万吨，较之前一周增加72%，较前四周均值增加86%，市 场此前预估为净增10.0万吨至净增40.0万吨。 当周，美国下一市场年度豆粕出口销售净增17.40万吨，市场此前预估为净增10.0万吨至净增30.0万吨。 当周，美国豆粕出口装船为34.32万吨，较之前一周增加17%，较此前四周均值增加26%。美国 ...

期货热点追踪 巴西发货延迟对全球大豆供应有何影响？IGC预计全球大豆进口需求将......点击阅读。 相关链接 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/7/17 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13600-14400 | 0.0681 | 0.0986 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例 | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 14200- 14400 | | 管理 | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上涨 | CF509C14400 | 卖出 | 75% | 18 ...

国债期货日报 2025年7月17日 市场活跃度降低 观点：中期不看空，短期视股市节奏交易 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货整体延续窄幅震荡格局，午盘上涨，午后受股市走强影响回落。T、TL成交持续下降。公开市场方 面，今日到期900亿，央行新做7天质押式回购4505亿，净投放3605亿元。 日内消息： 1.报道称特朗普起草解雇鲍威尔信函，特朗普否认免职传闻、但暗示正当理由可行。白宫国家经济委员会主 任哈塞特成接班鲍威尔最大热门，特朗普：是有这个考虑。 行情研判： TS主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS净基差：主连 TS基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0.2 0 0.2 TF主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 TF净基差：主连 TF基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 长端利率走势 source： wind,南华研究 % 10Y国债到期收益率 30Y国债到期收益率 10/31 12 ...