Futures

Search documents
国债期货日报-20251013
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 10:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to central bank dynamics. In the context of the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market remained stable, and the bond market yield showed certain fluctuations. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it will not change the rhythm of monetary policy, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may remain in a volatile pattern. It is not advisable to chase high in operations, and long positions should wait for pullbacks to be established [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow fluctuations in the morning and a decline in the afternoon, resulting in a narrowing of gains. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchases were 13.78 billion yuan, with a net investment of 13.78 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Intra - day News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China's export control of rare earths and other items is not a ban on exports, and hopes that the US will correct its mistakes and return to the right track of dialogue and negotiation. - Vance said that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China, and he had a conversation with Trump over the weekend. Trump "cherishes" friendship with China, and both hope not to use more bargaining chips against China [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - In the tense Sino - US trade situation, the A - share market opened above 3800 points and closed slightly lower, maintaining a range - bound pattern. Bond yields decreased compared to Friday but increased compared to Saturday. The market is in a TACO trading state. If the trade tension is short - term, it won't change the monetary policy rhythm, and reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed. The short - term market may not break out of the volatile pattern. It's not advisable to chase high, and long positions should wait for pullbacks [3] 3.4 Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 13 Price | 2025 - 10 - 10 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 13 Position (Hands) | 2025 - 10 - 10 Position (Hands) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.366 | 102.352 | 0.014 | 74436 | 74447 | - 11 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.655 | 0.01 | 147179 | 145873 | 1306 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.96 | 0.09 | 252554 | 250716 | 1838 | | TL2512 | 114.37 | 114.02 | 0.35 | 172579 | 173374 | - 795 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0017 | - 0.0385 | 0.0402 | | | | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.001 | - 0.058 | 0.059 | | | | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.082 | 0.031 | 0.051 | | | | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3522 | 0.2355 | 0.1167 | | | | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 31658 | 30556 | 1102 | | | | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 60280 | 50839 | 9441 | | | | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 85927 | 68299 | 17628 | | | | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Hands) | 124744 | 108237 | 16507 | | | | [4]
结构性行情下,成也萧何,败也萧何
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 08:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - Today's stock market declined, fully erasing yesterday's gains. Although the trading volume of the two markets decreased, it remained above 2.5 trillion yuan. The decline in precious metals overnight led to a drop in the structural driving force, causing non - ferrous metals to correct significantly and technology - related concepts to lead the decline. Cyclical industries showed relatively strong performance but with limited driving force. Short - term structural changes may continue to cause the stock index to fluctuate widely. With important information to be released at home and abroad later this month, the stock market is unlikely to deviate significantly from the current level, and the correction space is limited. It is necessary to observe whether the support of the 5 - day moving average is effective [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.97%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 137.583 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IC declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3] Important Information - On October 10, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued an announcement on adjusting the technical requirements for energy - saving and new - energy vehicle products eligible for vehicle and vessel tax incentives. Reuters reported on October 10 that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased again last week, indicating that some contractors related to the US government shutdown laid off employees in advance. Starting from October 14, 2025, the maritime management institutions at the ports where the ships berth will collect special port fees for ships owned, operated by US enterprises, organizations or individuals, or ships with US - related equity stakes, US - flagged ships, and ships built in the US [4] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6] Futures Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 2.18%, - 1.60%, - 2.24%, and - 1.71% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.6215 million lots, 0.73933 million lots, 1.7039 million lots, and 2.3345 million lots respectively, with环比 increases of 0.26302 million lots, 0.14217 million lots, 0.14916 million lots, and 0.19721 million lots respectively. The open interests were 2.78581 million lots, 1.05743 million lots, 2.60074 million lots, and 3.56927 million lots respectively, with环比 changes of 0.01506 million lots, 0.0217 million lots, - 0.08282 million lots, and 0.03851 million lots respectively [6][8] Spot Market Observation - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were - 0.94% and - 2.70% respectively. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 2,515.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.583 billion yuan compared with the previous day [8]
大有期货:风险共振金价破顶 宏观支撑涨势未竭
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-10 01:27
Macro News - The main gold futures in Shanghai reported at 914.32 CNY per gram, with an increase of 4.82%, opening at 909.96 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 918.88 CNY and a low of 903.40 CNY [1] - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks imported to the U.S. starting November 1, 2025 [1] - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that the government shutdown is reducing U.S. economic output by approximately 15 billion USD per week, which could lower GDP by about 0.1 percentage points weekly [1] - The ongoing trade war with China has led to a significant drop in U.S. soybean exports and prices, causing distress among farmers [1] - The ADP employment report for September showed a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 51,000, raising the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to 99% [1] Institutional Perspectives - During the holiday period, multiple favorable factors have led to a strong performance in precious metals, with gold prices reaching a historical high of over 4,000 USD per ounce [2] - The government shutdown has raised concerns about the stability of the U.S. economy and society, with potential increases in unemployment if the shutdown continues [2] - The rise of right-wing politics in Japan may lead to intensified stimulus policies, although there are challenges to policy discipline [2] - The recent resignation of France's new Prime Minister within 30 days highlights increasing governance difficulties in the French economy [2] - The escalation of trade tensions due to new tariffs on Chinese furniture and other products indicates that many risk events are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [2] - Despite significant gains in precious metals, technical and fundamental conditions suggest the potential for further upward movement [2]
国联期货云南耿马天然橡胶“保险+期货”项目完成结项
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-10-10 01:23
Core Viewpoint - The "Insurance + Futures" project for natural rubber in Gengma County, Yunnan Province, has been successfully completed with the support of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Guolian Futures, enhancing financial services and contributing to rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is in its second year in Gengma County, which is located in the southwestern part of Yunnan Province [1] - Natural rubber planting and harvesting is a primary method for local residents to increase their income, making the introduction of the "Insurance + Futures" model beneficial for farmers to mitigate price volatility risks [1] Group 2: Company Initiatives - Guolian Futures aims to deepen and innovate the "Insurance + Futures" business model through this project, improving the effectiveness and coverage of financial services [1] - The company has participated in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber project for seven consecutive years and will continue to support rural revitalization efforts in the future [1]
期货律师:居间合同一般不算格式条款,有效
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 11:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal implications of a futures intermediary being pressured by a futures company to sign a supplementary agreement containing clauses deemed unreasonable, highlighting the nature of standard contract terms and the validity of the existing contract [1]. Group 1: Contractual Nature - Standard terms are defined as clauses pre-drafted for repeated use without negotiation with the other party, characterized by being unilaterally drafted, reused, and non-negotiated [1]. - The futures intermediary's contract with the futures company is not considered a standard term contract since it changes annually and involves acceptance of the company's offer, indicating a genuine expression of intent between both parties [1]. Group 2: Legal Implications - The futures intermediary is advised to weigh the pros and cons before deciding whether to sign the related documents, emphasizing the importance of understanding the contractual obligations and potential consequences of non-signature [2].
玉米、淀粉产业链周报-20250930
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New - season supply pressure is emerging, with new grain quotes dropping after a high opening, and prices will face pressure during the peak listing period [1]. - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as a large amount of new grain enters the market [1]. - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of a bumper harvest forecast and awaiting further supply - side guidance [1]. - The price of Dalian corn futures has declined again. Attention should be paid to the cumulative risk of spot prices during the National Day holiday. It is recommended to hold short positions or remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - **Corn Futures**: From September 26 to September 29, 2025, corn 11 dropped from 2178 to 2159, a decrease of 19 or - 0.87%; corn 01 dropped from 2139 to 2135, a decrease of 4 or - 0.19%; other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline, except for corn 09 which remained unchanged [1]. - **Corn Starch Futures**: Corn starch 11 rose from 2480 to 2483, an increase of 3 or 0.12%, while other contracts such as corn starch 01, 03, etc. showed small declines [1]. - **Wheat Average Price**: It rose from 2448 to 2450, an increase of 2 or 0.08% [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: For corn, the prices in ports like Jinzhou, Shekou, and Harbin remained unchanged, with Jinzhou Port main - contract basis rising by 19 to 141; for corn starch, prices in Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained unchanged, and Shandong main - contract basis dropped by 3 to 297 [9]. - **US Corn and Related Products**: CBOT corn main - contract remained at 421.5, COBT soybean main - contract dropped from 1009.25 to 1004.5, a decrease of 4.75 or - 0.47%, CBOT wheat main - contract dropped from 519 to 518.75, a decrease of 0.25 or - 0.05%. The US Gulf完税 price dropped from 2151.47 to 2133.7, a decrease of 17.77 or - 0.83%, with an import profit of 326.3; the US West完税 price dropped from 2008.88 to 1993.92, a decrease of 14.96 or - 0.74%, with an import profit of 466.08 [21]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: The State Grain Reserve Corporation has started purchasing new - season corn, alleviating the market's pessimistic sentiment; rainfall in some North China production areas has delayed the harvest, resulting in a tight supply of old - season grain [1]. - **Negative Factors**: Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the short - term supply surplus is putting pressure on prices; the mid - and downstream acquisition mentality is cautious, waiting for lower prices [1].
南华期货苹果产业周报:晚富士陆续摘袋-20250928
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 12:58
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple price trends are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji apples. The recent rise in apple futures prices is mainly due to concerns about the good fruit rate, and the prices of early - harvested Fuji and Gansu Huaniu are higher than last year, setting the tone for the late Fuji opening price [2] - The near - end trading logic focuses on the good fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji, the opening price, and the new late - Fuji price trend. The market's bet on quality issues has led to a continuous rise in the futures market. The far - end contracts are weaker, with an expectation of price decline after a high opening, but the decline may be limited [3][4] - The apple market is currently in an uptrend, but the 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The main factors influencing apple prices are the good fruit rate and the opening price of late Fuji. Eastern apples have smaller fruit sizes and may have problems like reverse greening and chicken - claw marks due to rainy weather after bag - removal. Western apples also face similar issues, and their fruit sizes are smaller than usual [2] - The opening prices of Gala and early Fuji are good, with the early - harvested Fuji price 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year and Gansu Huaniu 1 yuan/kg higher [2] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The apple market's upward momentum continues. The 10 - contract reached a new high last week, and the winning positions hold more than 4000 net long positions. The 01 contract faces pressure around 8500 - 8600 [7] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, if worried about a high - yield season and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures (25% at 8500 - 8600) and sell call options (50% at 20 - 30) to lock in profits and reduce costs [9] - For procurement management, if worried about high purchase prices due to low old - crop inventory and a shortage of good - quality new - crop apples, enterprises can buy apple futures (50% at 8300 - 8400) and sell put options (75% at 50 - 60) to lock in purchase costs [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of September 17, national cold - storage inventory decreased. Steel Union data shows 12.18 tons, a 4.14 - ton decrease from last week, and Zhuochuang data shows 14.79 tons, a 6.02 - ton decrease. Shandong's cold - storage capacity ratio decreased [10] - This week, late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removal period. Western bag - removal was postponed by a week, and the progress is similar to the east. Shandong's late Fuji may have problems with reverse greening and coloring due to rainy weather [11] - Western early - harvested Fuji prices are 0.5 yuan/kg higher than last year, and most are pre - ordered by merchants. Western late Fuji will be on the market after October 5, with large - scale listing in mid - October [11] - Gansu Huaniu has smaller fruit sizes and a lower commodity rate due to previous high - temperature and drought. The price is 1 yuan/kg higher than last year, but the large amount of fruit stored by farmers may not be favorable for the market [11] - The number of trucks arriving at three major markets in Guangdong decreased slightly due to a typhoon this week. With the approaching of festivals, the number of trucks increased slightly, but the overall sales were average [12] 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - Focus on the sales and remaining inventory of stored Fuji, as well as the weather, bag - removal, quality, and opening price of late Fuji [17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures prices rose, but the increase in the main contract was small. The total position is at the lowest level in the past 5 years but has increased recently. The winning positions have been increasing continuously. Technically, the main contract shows a fluctuating upward trend [17] 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The apple spread structure shows significant fluctuations in nearby contracts approaching the delivery month. The 10 - contract may be the strongest [19][20] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. The storage profit of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples in the 24/25 season is 0.3 yuan/kg, affected by the price drop of stored apples. The storage profit for the 25/26 season is yet to be determined [22] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Based on previous bagging data, the 25/26 season is expected to have a slight increase in national apple production, but the final output may decline compared to last year, and the quality may decline significantly. The quality of Gala apples makes people worried about the quality of late Fuji [24][25]
南华期货假期效应显现
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]
南华金属日报:高位震荡,轻仓过节-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 06:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [2][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices were in a high - level volatile adjustment. As the National Day holiday in China approaches and precious metals have risen significantly previously, it is recommended to reduce long positions. During the holiday, important US non - farm and ISM PMI data will be released. The US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin rebounded, the US stock market fell, and crude oil continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3768.5 per ounce, down 1.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.115 per ounce, down 1.11%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 860 yuan per gram, up 1.03%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.83% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 24.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 74.4%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 31.3%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.72 tons to 996.85 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15469.12 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12.8 tons to 1161.8 tons daily; as of the week ending September 19, SGX silver inventory increased by 35.4 tons to 1217 tons weekly [3] 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Mainly focus on the final value of the US second - quarter GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give a speech; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests; at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech [3] 4. Nanhua's Viewpoint - The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. In the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down. London gold closed with a negative candlestick, and London silver closed with a high - level doji, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. London gold has support around 3700 and resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][5] 5. Precious Metal Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [5] 6. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings [13][14] 7. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [21]
油脂价格区间预测
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 07:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content **Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies** - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders with high oil and fat inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - **Refineries with low procurement inventory**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - **Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices**: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. **Market Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. **Market Price Data** - **Palm Oil**: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].