文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on overseas Chinese assets, focusing on sectors that may benefit from policy changes and deep value stocks that have been negatively impacted by market rumors [2][12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of patience in waiting for market changes while actively seeking investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like cross-border e-commerce, domestic consumption-related internet assets, and undervalued stocks [3][12]. - It highlights the potential for recovery in the education sector due to government support for service consumption, as well as the luxury goods sector facing challenges from macroeconomic fluctuations [5][23]. - The report also notes the growth in the coffee and tea beverage sector, driven by increased delivery services and consumer demand, alongside a positive outlook for the OTA (Online Travel Agency) segment as travel demand rises [5][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Education - The Chinese education index increased by 2.28% during the week of April 14-18, 2025, underperforming against the Hang Seng Index but outperforming other major indices [14]. - Notable stock performances included a significant rise in stocks like Zhuoyue Education Group (+18.18%) and NetEase Youdao (+13.84%) [14][19]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector saw a decline, with LVMH's sales falling short of expectations, reporting a 3% decrease in Q1 2025 sales [23][29]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end brands with strong management capabilities and product innovation, as they are less affected by economic cycles [5][23]. 3. Coffee and Beverage & OTA - The coffee and beverage sector experienced notable stock increases, with Tims China (+18.29%) and Luckin Coffee (+8.45%) leading the gains [28]. - The OTA sector is expected to benefit from rising travel demand, with predictions indicating a significant increase in travel bookings during the upcoming holiday [5][28]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The internet technology sector index rose by 0.37%, with key stocks like Beike (+7.67%) and Alibaba (+5.53%) showing strong performance [36][37]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of tariff changes on cross-border e-commerce platforms and the overall market dynamics [12][36]. 5. Media - The media sector is encouraged to focus on stocks with strong fundamentals and dividend value, particularly in light of recent policy support for cultural industries [5][12]. - The report notes the potential for growth in AI applications within the media sector, emphasizing the importance of tracking developments in this area [5][12]. 6. Virtual Assets & Brokerage - The report indicates a slight improvement in sentiment towards virtual asset trading, with expectations for strong Q1 performance from brokerage firms like Futu Holdings and Tiger Brokers [5][12]. 7. Real Estate Transactions - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate market, with government emphasis on market potential and the construction of quality housing [5][12]. 8. Automotive Services - The report mentions potential developments in ride-hailing services in Macau, indicating a growing interest in the automotive service sector [5][12]. 9. Media and M&A - The report highlights ongoing trends in mergers and acquisitions within the media sector, suggesting a focus on companies that are well-positioned for growth through strategic partnerships [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - Service consumption is a key focus of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with significant growth potential in both supply and demand sides, particularly in the tourism and cultural industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued a "Service Consumption Quality Improvement Action Plan for 2025," outlining 48 specific measures across various sectors including dining, accommodation, health, and tourism [2] - The government's frequent issuance of work plans to support service consumption has enhanced market expectations for policy support [2] Group 2: Tourism and Cultural Industry - The tourism and cultural industry is characterized by its large capacity, broad scope, high resilience, and strong driving force, making it a significant area for potential subsidies to stimulate consumption [3] - Historical data indicates that tourism consumption subsidies can have a multiplier effect, with ratios ranging from 1:4 to 1:5, and in some cases, as high as 1:12 [3] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy include platforms, transportation, accommodation, scenic spots, and dining [4][5] - Past consumption voucher distributions show that hotel accommodation typically accounts for 20%-40%, scenic spot tickets for 15%-30%, and transportation for 5%-20% of total subsidies [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - With the government's clear direction to stimulate domestic demand, there is an expectation of continued policy support for service consumption [7] - The upcoming May Day holiday is projected to maintain high passenger traffic growth, with airline ticket prices expected to turn positive, indicating a significant holiday effect [7]

Group 1: Company Insights - Tongcheng Travel is expected to achieve Q1 2025 performance growth in line with expectations, with a continued trend of rapid revenue growth and year-on-year profit margin improvement in the OTA sector [1] - The upcoming May Day holiday is anticipated to drive new highs in travel demand, boosting investor sentiment [1] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel has been raised from HKD 24 to HKD 25.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating, indicating a potential upside of 13.8% [1] Group 2: E-commerce Industry Trends - In Q1 2025, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate of physical e-commerce online retail sales is 5.7%, with January-February and March showing growth rates of 5.0% and 6.9% respectively [2] - The expansion of national subsidies is driving accelerated growth in communication equipment, while demand for home appliances is recovering month by month as the home decoration season begins [2] - The e-commerce industry is expected to continue its growth trend, benefiting from national subsidies and recovering demand in home appliances, with projected GMV growth rates of +6% for the industry, +6% for Alibaba, +10% for JD.com, +13% for Pinduoduo, and +15% for Kuaishou [2][3] Group 3: Investment Insights - Continuous attention is recommended on the impact of national subsidies on home appliances and 3C categories on platforms like Taobao and JD.com [3] - Monitoring Alibaba's stable market share in e-commerce and the acceleration of revenue growth in Alibaba Cloud, along with breakthroughs in AI technology, is advised for potential valuation uplift [3] - Kuaishou's progress in commercializing its business model is also highlighted as an area of interest [3]

Group 1: Market Overview and Sector Analysis - The article discusses the current positioning of six main sectors: technology, consumer, pharmaceuticals, new energy, dividends, and overseas expansion, providing insights on stock prices, valuations, and fundamentals [1] - The property service industry achieved a positive cash flow of 19.8 billion and a net increase in monetary funds of 6 billion, with an average dividend payout ratio rising to 65% [6] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with PB ratios at the lower end of the past three years, indicating a high cost-performance ratio [7] Group 2: Electric and Commercial Vehicles - The development of hybrid heavy-duty trucks is seen as the final piece in the electrification puzzle, with expected penetration rates of 1%, 5%, and 10% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The article highlights the significant growth potential for hybrid heavy-duty trucks in long-distance transportation, with a projected market share of 30% by 2030 [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Energy - The electric power sector experienced a 1.3% year-on-year growth in electricity consumption in January and February 2025, attributed to warm winter temperatures and a high base effect from the previous year [9] - Investment in thermal and nuclear power has accelerated, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.5% in investment amounts [9] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Tourism - During the Qingming Festival, domestic travel increased by 6.3% in terms of the number of trips and 6.7% in total spending, indicating strong travel demand [13] - The article anticipates a continued rise in leisure tourism and service consumption, with a focus on sectors like dining and hotels [13] Group 5: Agricultural Machinery - The recent government plan aims to significantly advance agricultural modernization by 2035, which will drive demand for high-performance and intelligent agricultural machinery [11] - The plan emphasizes upgrading agricultural machinery and integrating advanced equipment into the entire agricultural production process [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the internet and education sector, including Tencent, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, Meituan, JD, NetEase, Ctrip, Baidu, Kuaishou, and others [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that companies with rapid business adjustments and improved commercialization capabilities have shown strong revenue growth, while larger companies have maintained their leading positions despite a slowdown in growth [5][6]. - In 2025, companies are expected to enhance their monetization capabilities and explore overseas expansion to drive revenue growth, with a focus on new business initiatives and long-term strategic planning [3][5]. - The OTA industry is projected to grow approximately 10% driven by international business, while the e-commerce sector benefits from consumption stimulus policies and low base effects [3][5]. - Local lifestyle services are expected to see revenue growth between 15-20%, supported by platform monetization and operational improvements [3]. - The gaming industry is anticipated to grow by 10% in 2025, driven by new game launches and effective operations [3]. - Cloud services remain a key area of focus, with significant potential driven by demand for computing power and AI applications [3]. - The entertainment sector is expected to maintain steady growth in music subscription revenue, while long video platforms may see effects from short drama layouts [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Companies with high revenue growth (20%-60%) are primarily those undergoing strategic expansion and business adjustments, such as education training, OTA, Pinduoduo, Meituan, and others [5]. - Companies with moderate revenue growth (10-19%) face some business pressures but have other segments performing well, such as New Oriental and Bilibili [6]. - Companies with low revenue growth (0-9%) still outpace GDP growth, with Tencent showing continuous improvement in monetization [6]. Profit Growth - Profit growth for most internet companies is driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with leading companies benefiting from high-margin business growth [10]. - The report indicates that companies are focusing on optimizing their business structures to enhance profitability [10]. R&D and Capital Expenditure - R&D expenses are increasing due to heightened investments in AI, while some reductions are attributed to the scaling back of non-strategic projects [14]. - Capital expenditures for major companies like Tencent and Alibaba are projected to increase significantly, with a large portion allocated to AI-related initiatives [17]. Shareholder Returns - The report outlines various companies' shareholder return strategies, with many focusing on share buybacks and stable dividend payouts [18]. - Companies like Alibaba and JD have substantial buyback plans, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [18]. Institutional Holdings - The report notes changes in institutional holdings, with several companies seeing increased ownership percentages, particularly in AI-related sectors [19][21]. - The report highlights the top companies with increased institutional holdings, indicating a positive outlook from investors [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop in the e-commerce sector, and for Meituan in the local life services sector, as well as for Didi Chuxing in the ride-sharing sector [16][17][18]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index rose by 2.53%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (up 1.59%) and the ChiNext Index (up 0.97%) [5][6]. - The retail sector index increased by 3.05%, also outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [5][6]. - The e-commerce competition landscape is better than expected, with leading companies' valuations at low levels [16]. - Ctrip's outbound tourism and overseas business continue to show high growth, with a focus on the recovery of outbound tourism and overseas market expansion [19]. - The local life services sector shows significant profit elasticity, with Meituan being a key recommendation [17]. - Didi Chuxing is expected to maintain stable growth and has significant profit growth potential due to its established market share and operational efficiencies [18]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - The competitive landscape is less concerning than previously thought, with expected profit growth for major players [16]. - Alibaba's e-commerce monetization rate has significantly improved, with a target price of 156-190 HKD per share [19]. - JD.com is expected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth, with a target price of 193-232 HKD per share [19]. - Vipshop's performance is driven by improved consumer sentiment and platform advantages, with a target price of 19.5 USD [19]. Local Life Services - Meituan's core business is expected to show resilience and profit release, with a target price of 176.8 HKD per share [17]. Ride-sharing Sector - Didi Chuxing is projected to have a significant profit growth potential, with a focus on both domestic and international markets [18]. Tourism Sector - Ctrip's revenue and profit have exceeded market expectations, with a projected revenue growth of 14%-15% for 2025 [19]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to launch over 120 promotional activities to boost restaurant consumption [24]. Retail Sector - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards quality retail, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket focusing on enhancing consumer trust and service quality [17].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，金价再创新高 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，利好母婴消费品 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特卫健委发布落实《关于促进人口 集聚推动人口高质量发展的实施意见》育儿补贴项目实施细 则及服务流程。发放育儿补贴实施细则如下：生育一孩一次 性发放育儿补贴 10000 元；生育二孩发放育儿补贴 50000 元， 按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 5 周岁；生育三孩及以上发 放育儿补贴 100000 元，按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 10 周岁。 据中国政府网、财联社，2025 年政府工作报告中明确提出， 制定促进生育政策，发放育儿补贴；3 月 7 日，国家卫健委主 任雷海潮指出，今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同 有关部门，起草相关的育儿补贴的操作方案。育儿补贴政策 的出台是提振生育率的重要举措，我们认为未来地方育儿补 贴政策有望持续出台，利好母婴消费品，相关受益标的包括 孩子王、爱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the social services industry, highlighting positive trends and growth potential in various sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant impact of the "phenomenal IPO" of Mixue Ice City, which set a record in the Hong Kong stock market with a subscription multiple of 5125 times and raised HKD 1.77 trillion, boosting market expectations for the new tea beverage industry [2][9]. - The report notes that the expansion of international business remains a key focus for OTA platforms, with Ctrip reporting a revenue of CNY 12.7 billion in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%, despite rising marketing costs [3][10]. - The report highlights the advancements in AI technology driving growth in the education sector, with Duolingo achieving a revenue of USD 210 million in Q4 2024, a 39% year-on-year increase, and plans for further AI investments [6][8]. Industry Dynamics and News Education - AI technology is driving growth in the education sector, with Duolingo's Q4 2024 revenue reaching USD 210 million, up 39% year-on-year, and an adjusted EBITDA of USD 52.3 million [6][8]. - Chinese education companies are accelerating their AI and specialized model applications, with notable developments from companies like Daosheng Education and Xueda Education [8]. Chain Services - The "phenomenal IPO" of Mixue Ice City has led to a reevaluation of the tea beverage sector, with stocks of brands like Gu Ming and Nayuki Tea rising by 79.5% and 23.7% respectively [2][9]. - Brands are adjusting franchise requirements to enhance operational quality and profitability, with Mixue adopting a "couple store" model for rural outlets [9][40]. Tourism - Ctrip's Q4 2024 revenue was CNY 12.7 billion, reflecting a 23% year-on-year growth, with international business expansion expected to enhance long-term profitability [3][10]. - The report anticipates that the international business segment will significantly improve overall scale and profit margins once it matures [10]. Market Performance - The social services industry saw a month-on-month increase of 3.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with education and professional services leading the gains [43][44]. - The report indicates that the AI sector's growth is positively influencing the valuation of the social services industry, particularly in education and professional services [43].