氯碱日报 | 2025-06-05 需求支撑不足，烧碱延续震荡走低 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4834元/吨（+89）；华东基差-184元/吨（-79）;华南基差-69元/吨（-64）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4650元/吨（+10）；华南电石法报价4765元/吨（+25）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（-55）；电石利润80元/吨（-55）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-547元/吨（+74）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-505元/吨（+11）；PVC出口利润7.4美元/吨（+2.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.5万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存36.3万吨（-1.5）；PVC电石法开工率75.71%（+2.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.71%（-1.19%）；PVC开工率74.60%（+1.49%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量54.1万吨（-6.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2367元/吨（-4）；山东32%液碱基差383元/吨（+4）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价880元/吨（+0）；山东50%液 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - International oil prices rose, mainly driven by macro and supply - side factors boosting market risk appetite. In the short - term, the upward trend of the market is due to supply expectation adjustments and macro - geopolitical impacts on market sentiment. In the long - term, the balance sheet may continue to loosen. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The expected price ranges are [59, 69] for WTI, [61, 71] for Brent, and [440, 500] for SC. Options can consider buying straddle structures [2]. Methanol - The methanol market is facing significant inventory accumulation pressure. The 09 contract is mainly priced based on the oversupply situation in the inland area. The market will continue to force production cuts. The price will continue to decline in an oscillatory manner, with short - term resistance around 2270 and a medium - term target of 2050 - 2100 [5]. Styrene - Although OPEC+ has a strong production increase expectation, geopolitical risks and seasonal factors support oil prices in the short - term. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and the cost support for styrene is weak. With the improvement of styrene industry profits, supply is expected to increase while demand is weak, so styrene prices are under pressure. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [9]. Polyolefins - In the plastics market, the supply of PE may see inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports, while the supply pressure of PP will increase as maintenance ends. The demand lacks sustainability. It is recommended to short - sell PP on rallies and consider expanding the LP spread [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, the supply - side contradiction is limited in June, and some enterprises want to support prices. The demand from the alumina industry provides strong support for the spot price. It is advisable to consider expanding the spread between the near - month and 09 contracts. For PVC, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the short - term supply pressure will increase. It is recommended to short - sell PVC on rallies, with an expected price range of 4500 - 5000 [38]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in the continuous impact of high supply and weak demand. The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. After the Dragon Boat Festival, if agricultural fertilizer procurement fails to start effectively and the export volume is low, the price may decline [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is increasing, and demand may weaken. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6500 - 6900, and consider reverse spreads for PX9 - 1 and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, but short - term support is strong. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900, and consider reverse spreads for TA9 - 1. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 around 4200 and positive spreads for EG9 - 1. - Short - fiber: The driving force is weaker than the raw material end. The strategy is similar to PTA for single - side trading, and expand the processing fee at a low level. - Bottle - chip: The supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On June 4, Brent rose 1.00 to 65.63, WTI fell 0.18 to 63.23. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased significantly [2]. - **Supply Factors**: Canadian wildfires led to a supply interruption of about 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2509 rose 17 to 2225. The MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 61 to 6 [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 5.64%, and port inventory increased. The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 decreased significantly [5]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The styrene East - China spot price fell 330 to 7430. The EB07 - EB08 spread decreased by 24 to 78 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in June, and styrene supply may increase while demand is weak [9]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 - 2509 increased by 4 to - 28, and PP2505 - 2509 increased by 19 to - 39 [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and the开工 rates of some devices changed [13]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: For caustic soda, FOB East - China port price rose to 410. For PVC, V2505 fell 58 to 4905 [33][34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda has many maintenance plans in June, and PVC supply is expected to increase in the short - term [38]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 contract fell 12 to 1761. The 05 contract - 09 contract spread increased by 13 to - 43 [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production reached 207,000 tons, and enterprise inventory increased by 6.9%. Demand is in the off - season [41]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: PX prices fell, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 31 to 366. PTA prices decreased, and the PTA spot processing fee increased by 66 to 444 [44]. - **开工率**: The开工 rates of some devices in the polyester industry chain changed, such as a 2.6% increase in the Asian PX开工率 [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, with weak domestic demand and a lack of positive fundamental support, leading to downward pressure on its price. However, it is not advisable to overly pursue short - selling at the current low valuation. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4] - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited driving forces. Currently, the resumption of alumina production is not obvious. Future focus should be on downstream replenishment sustainability and the progress of alumina capacity resumption [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract was 4,745 yuan/ton (- 19), with an East China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+ 9) and a South China basis of - 5 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,640 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,885 yuan/ton (- 45), the calcium carbide profit was 135 yuan/ton (- 45), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was - 547 yuan/ton (+ 74), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was - 505 yuan/ton (+ 11), and the PVC export profit was 5.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 38.5 tons (- 0.2), the social PVC inventory was 36.3 tons (- 1.5), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 75.71% (+ 2.52%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 71.71% (- 1.19%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 74.60% (+ 1.49%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 54.1 tons (- 6.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract was 2,371 yuan/ton (- 85), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 379 yuan/ton (+ 85) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,420 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The caustic soda profit in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 1,056.6 yuan/ton (+ 80.8), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 386.78 yuan/ton (+ 63.00), and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,365.55 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 39.26 tons (- 0.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.73 tons (- 0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.10% (+ 1.60%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 79.53% (+ 1.43%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 62.68% (- 0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.60% (+ 0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: There are limited planned maintenance for PVC in the later period. With the support of decent comprehensive chlor - alkali profits, upstream maintenance and production cuts are not obvious. PVC production is at a high level in the same period. Coupled with the expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remains high [3] - Cost: The price of upstream calcium carbide has declined, weakening the cost support for PVC, while the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has recovered [3] - Demand: The terminal real estate market is weak. The operation rate of PVC downstream product enterprises is at a low level in the same period. The operation of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable. The downstream market mainly makes rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the spot price fluctuates weakly. The demand side remains weak. Export orders are continuously and stably delivered. The social PVC inventory continues to decline, but the de - stocking rate is slow. The extension policy of India's BIS certification expires at the end of June, which is expected to drag down exports and deliveries to India [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The spot price of caustic soda is firm. With the support of chlor - alkali profits, most upstream manufacturers maintain high - level operation, and there are few new upstream maintenance. The overall caustic soda operation rate has increased month - on - month. It is expected that new caustic soda production capacity will be put into operation from June to July, so the supply - side pressure of caustic soda remains high [3] - Demand: For the main downstream product, alumina, supported by previous maintenance and supply disruptions at the Guinean ore end, the alumina spot price has been sorted out in a stable and slightly strong manner, and the industry's production profit has significantly recovered. The market's expectation of the resumption of some production capacity has strengthened. The expected increase in alumina operation rate may support the caustic soda market price in the short term, and the inventory - building rhythm of major alumina plants is accelerating. Non - aluminum demand remains weak. The operation rate of downstream terminals such as printing and dyeing and viscose staple fiber has slightly increased, but the overall inventory - building willingness is not strong [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. The high supply and inventory pressure of PVC continue, and domestic demand remains weak. The fundamentals lack positive support, and the PVC price is under pressure. However, at the current low valuation, it is not advisable to overly pursue short - selling. Continued attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. Currently, the resumption of alumina production is not obvious. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited driving forces. However, the current futures price is deeply discounted, and the downward space is limited. Future focus should be on downstream replenishment sustainability and the progress of alumina capacity resumption [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations, and attention should be paid to cost changes [1]. - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can still support the market, but the key lies in the sustainability of stockpiling. After replenishment, the market may tend to short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback [2]. - The market is in a downward trend of positive arbitrage pattern as caustic soda spot prices are difficult to rise or fall in the short term [2]. - There will be more new maintenance of caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Although the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturers' load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply [2]. - Considering the decline of coal prices and electricity prices this year, the valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2371. The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2719 yuan/ton, and the basis is 348 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 880 yuan/ton today, remaining stable compared with the previous period. The market is generally stable during the holiday, with only individual enterprises making minor adjustments. The shipment volume of 32% caustic soda to major downstream customers is large during the holiday, but it decreases as orders are shipped outside the province [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can support the market. If an alumina enterprise in Shandong replenishes its stock, it may lead to a price cut again after late June. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under negative demand feedback [2]. - There are more new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Manufacturers' load is generally high as the profit is not in deficit. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply, although this impact was quite limited in the first quarter due to high caustic soda profits [2]. - Considering the decline of coal and electricity prices this year, self - power - generation enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - power enterprises still have large profit margins. The valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral situation [4].

6月氯碱： 偏弱震荡 关注宏观和库存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 2025-06-03 目 录 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 02 烧碱：强现实弱预期 盘面偏弱震荡 03 PVC：弱预期低估值 盘面偏弱震荡 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱现货偏强运行 资料来源：IFIND，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，公开资料整理，长江期货 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱期货近强远弱 p 5月烧碱主力09合约先涨后跌，月度下跌0.93%收2456元/吨。近月06合约持续维持强势，月度上涨13.84%收2714元/吨。 p 现货维持强势，近月06合约上涨，09合约受终点供需预期偏弱走势弱势，6-9 月差走强，呈现强现实弱预期的分化格局。 p 5月上游一定检修，出口存有一定支撑，液碱库存处于下降态势。魏桥 液碱送货量持续处于低位，原料库存持续走低，但其新线投产对烧碱 需求有增量。5月中上旬氧化铝价格大幅上涨、利润修复，氧化铝复产 预期增强推动烧碱偏强。5月底氧化铝转跌，复产预期转弱。 p 魏桥连续6次上调32 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the maintenance of liquid caustic soda enterprises in Shandong will increase, leading to a decline in supply. The output of alumina enterprises in Shandong is steadily recovering, and the liquid caustic soda receipts of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong continue to grow, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected that these enterprises can reserve a certain amount of liquid caustic soda safety stock during the maintenance of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises for normal alumina production. Before the holiday, due to the low futures price, no effective warehouse receipts were formed. The near - month SH06 contract rose significantly, but the main SH2509 contract lacked follow - up momentum. The market is in an environment of strong reality and weak expectation. Against the backdrop of the overall weakness of bulk commodity futures, this is understandable. Although there are investors concerned about the chlor - alkali cost, and the cost is likely to decline considering the significant drop in coal and grid electricity prices, for caustic soda futures, the far - month contracts can factor in cost issues, while the near - month contracts should focus more on supply - demand factors rather than cost disturbances. Relevant contract arbitrage opportunities can be seized [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chlor - Alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a 1.6% week - on - week increase. The restart or reduction in the Northwest, North, and East China slightly increased the load, while the new maintenance and production - reduction devices in Central and South China decreased the load. The capacity utilization rate in Shandong increased by 1.8% to 89.7%. This week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will be around 84.7%, with a weekly output of about 819,600 tons [8]. - **Demand**: - **Alumina**: In Shandong, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers has been increasing since April 13, reaching 840 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,625 yuan/ton. Currently, alumina enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle, and the short - term consumption of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain strong [8]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remains around 80.17%, with a slight week - on - week decrease in output. The demand side has not improved, as the downstream human cotton yarn market has a general trading atmosphere, with prices remaining stagnant. Downstream manufacturers have a certain risk - aversion sentiment and weak inventory - building willingness, mostly purchasing on a just - in - time basis [8]. - **Printing and dyeing**: The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 62.68%, a 0.55% week - on - week decrease. Some printing and dyeing factories in Shaoxing have holiday plans around the Dragon Boat Festival, adjusting their schedules according to order volumes. The core issue is the decline in upstream weaving orders, which has led to insufficient white fabric storage in dyeing factories and a passive reduction in the operating rate of dye vats [8]. - **Export**: In April, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 335,800 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [8]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more in China was 392,600 wet tons, a 2.08% week - on - week decrease and a 10.22% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 23.28%, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The storage capacity ratios in Northeast and South China increased week - on - week, while those in Northwest, North, Central, and East China decreased, and that in Southwest China remained stable. Overall, the inventory showed a certain decline [8]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and raw salt in Shandong remained stable, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 601 yuan/ton, reaching a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Valuation**: - **9 - 1 spread**: The strong spot price has attracted many investors to participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread, causing the SH2509 contract to generally weaken [8]. - **Basis**: The current caustic soda futures ignore the strong spot reality and focus on the expectation of weak future demand. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and it is not recommended to carry out selling hedging operations at the current basis [8]. 3.2 Chlor - Alkali Prices - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Prices**: Data on the minimum ex - factory converted 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong from 2022 to 2025 are presented [13]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Prices and Export Caustic Soda Prices**: Data on the prices of flake caustic soda in Shandong and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025, and the FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 are provided [16]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis**: Data on the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2023 to 2025, the price of the main caustic soda contract from 2023 to 2025, and the spread between the SH09 and SH01 contracts in 2024 and 2025 are shown [19]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Prices**: Data on the price of Shandong sea salt from 2021 to 2025, the CIF price of Indian sea salt first - grade industrial salt from 2021 to 2025, and the ex - warehouse price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5000K from 2021 to 2025 are given [22][23]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply, Inventory, and Profit**: Data on the caustic soda output from 2021 to 2025, the liquid caustic soda inventory from 2021 to 2025, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises from 2022 to 2025 are presented [28]. - **Caustic Soda Maintenance**: Information on the maintenance status of caustic soda production facilities last week, including the regions, enterprise names, caustic soda production capacities, and maintenance details, as well as the planned future maintenance of caustic soda production facilities, is provided [30]. 3.4 Chlor - Alkali Demand - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Alumina**: Data on the price of alumina in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of alumina in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, and the alumina output in China in 2024 and 2025 are shown [34]. - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: Data on the weekly output of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the factory inventory of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China from 2021 to 2025, and the price of viscose staple fiber (1.2D*38mm) in East China from 2021 to 2025 are presented [37]. - **Caustic Soda Downstream - Pulp and Paper**: Data on the paper product output from 2022 to 2025 and the available inventory days of paper products in upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 are provided [40]. - **Caustic Soda Consumption - Export**: Data on the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and total caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the cumulative export volume and year - on - year growth rate of caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, are shown [43]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream - Propylene Oxide**: Data on the price of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the output of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025, and the operating rate of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025 are presented [46].

Core Viewpoint - Company aims to achieve high-quality development through industry chain extension and transformation, focusing on basic chemicals and new chemical materials, while integrating technological and industrial innovation [2][4][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.899 billion yuan, an increase of 37.10% year-on-year [3][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 191 million yuan, a decrease of 23.21% year-on-year [3][5] - The decline in net profit was attributed to macroeconomic slowdown affecting industrial enterprises and a decrease in product prices leading to lower gross margins, as well as increased financial expenses from convertible bond interest [5][6] Production Capacity and Utilization - The company’s 300,000-ton PVC project commenced production in May 2024, achieving an output of 208,200 tons with a weighted capacity utilization rate of 94.42% [3][5] Dividend Distribution - For the 2024 fiscal year, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.65 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 115.22 million yuan, which represents 60.30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2][5] Industry Context - The chlor-alkali industry is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with overall profitability declining due to insufficient downstream demand [6][10] - The company is actively monitoring market dynamics to adjust pricing strategies in response to raw material costs and market supply-demand relationships [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - International crude oil futures prices have been rising, supported by a weakening US dollar and geopolitical risks. The supply - side OPEC+ production increase has alleviated concerns, but trade frictions suppress demand. After the holiday, the short - term trend depends on the US dollar, geopolitical situation, and supply - demand re - balancing. Unilateral trading can be in a slightly bullish direction, with WTI in the range of [59, 69], Brent [61, 71], and SC [440, 500]. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of INE spreads and consider buying a straddle option to capture post - holiday volatility [8]. Styrene - In June, the supply - demand of styrene is expected to gradually become looser, and the price remains under pressure. However, due to tight spot circulation, the near - end price may fluctuate. It is advisable to take a short - selling approach [2]. Chlor - Alkali - For caustic soda, short - term spot prices remain strong. Before the fundamentals significantly weaken or warehouse receipts flow out, consider expanding the spread between the near - month and September contracts. For PVC, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions are prominent. In June, supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach, with an operating range of 4500 - 5000, while also paying attention to macro - level disturbances [30][40]. Urea - The core contradiction of urea lies in high supply and weak demand expectations. Currently, supply is abundant, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market will test whether agricultural fertilizer procurement can start effectively. If not, it may further pressure the market [44]. Polyolefin - For plastics, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in early June due to increased maintenance and less imports. For PP, supply pressure will increase as maintenance ends. Demand lacks sustainability after a round of replenishment. Unilateral trading for PP can be short - biased at high prices, and the LP spread is expected to widen [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In June, PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, but may weaken after mid - June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels, gradually exit the PX9 - 1 positive spread, and look for opportunities to narrow the PX - SC spread [50]. - **PTA**: In June, PTA supply - demand remains tight but may weaken in late June. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider short - selling at high levels and exit the TA9 - 1 positive spread at high prices [50]. - **MEG**: In June, the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is good, with inventory reduction expectations. Consider buying EG09 at around 4200 and taking a positive spread for EG9 - 1 [50]. - **Short - fiber**: In June, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost. Consider expanding the PF July processing fee around 800 [50]. - **Bottle chips**: In June, bottle chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees will be supported. Consider expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [50]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread Data**: On June 3, Brent was at $65.12/barrel, WTI at $63.05/barrel. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased, while SC M1 - M3 increased. Refined oil prices generally rose, and some cracking spreads decreased [8]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, most upstream prices decreased, and some styrene - related prices and spreads also changed. For example, styrene - pure benzene spread decreased by 2.5%. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to loosen in June [2]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Data**: On May 30, most PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices were stable or changed slightly. Caustic soda exports had a small profit change, and PVC exports' profit increased significantly. In June, caustic soda maintenance is high, and PVC supply pressure is expected to increase [30][40]. Urea - **Futures and Related Data**: On May 30, most urea futures prices decreased slightly. Supply is high, with daily production increasing, and demand is weak, in a seasonal off - peak [44]. Polyolefin - **PE and PP Data**: On May 30, PE and PP futures prices decreased. Some spreads and basis values changed. In early June, plastics may see inventory reduction, while PP supply pressure will increase later [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Data**: On May 30, upstream and downstream prices in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, PX prices decreased, and some polyester product prices and cash - flows also changed. Different products in the polyester chain have different supply - demand and price trends in June [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Views - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive support in fundamentals, so its trend is under pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers. Attention should be paid to the continuity of downstream replenishment and the resumption progress of alumina production capacity [3][4]. Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4744 yuan/ton (-14), the East China basis is -94 yuan/ton (+4), and the South China basis is -9 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4650 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4735 yuan/ton (-15) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 180 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -621 yuan/ton (+37), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -516 yuan/ton (+10), and the PVC export profit is 19.8 US dollars/ton (+6.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 38.7 tons (-1.9), the social inventory is 37.8 tons (-2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 75.71% (+2.52%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 71.71% (-1.19%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 74.60% (+1.49%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2479 yuan/ton (+23), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 271 yuan/ton (-23) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 975.8 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 313.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1365.55 yuan/ton (-60.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.26 tons (-0.83), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.73 tons (-0.22), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 84.10% (+1.60%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The operating rate of alumina is 78.10% (+1.43%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.68% (-0.55%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 80.60% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: There is limited new maintenance, and some previously maintained enterprises have resumed production. The operating rate of the PVC industry has increased month - on - month. With less planned maintenance in the later period and expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remains high [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of PVC downstream product enterprises is at a low level in the same period. The operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films are weakly stable. The downstream market mainly makes rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The domestic demand is weak, and the export to India may be affected [3]. - Cost side: The upstream calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost support for PVC is insufficient [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are few new maintenance devices, and previously maintained enterprises have gradually resumed production. The overall operating rate of caustic soda has continued to rise month - on - month. With expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: The price of alumina has continued to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry has significantly recovered. The operating rate of alumina is expected to rise, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. However, non - aluminum downstream demand remains weak [3]. Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic Soda: Neutral, pay attention to the continuity of downstream replenishment and the resumption progress of alumina production capacity [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC faces high supply and inventory pressure with weak domestic demand, lacking positive fundamental support and under pressure [3][4] - Caustic soda's overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4758 yuan/ton (-35); East China basis -98 yuan/ton (-5); South China basis -8 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (-40); South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: PVC calcium carbide method gross profit -621 yuan/ton (+37); PVC ethylene method gross profit -516 yuan/ton (+10); PVC export profit 13.8 dollars/ton (+6.1) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory 38.7 tons (-1.9); PVC social inventory 37.8 tons (-2.0); PVC calcium carbide method operating rate 73.19% (-2.33%); PVC ethylene method operating rate 72.90% (+2.84%); PVC operating rate 73.11% (-0.90%) [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closed at 2456 yuan/ton (+7); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 294 yuan/ton (-7) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong caustic soda single - product profit 1759 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 935.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 313.78 yuan/ton (-50.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 1425.55 yuan/ton (+20.20) [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 40.09 tons (-1.50); Flake caustic soda factory inventory 2.95 tons (+0.03); Caustic soda operating rate 84.10% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream开工: Alumina operating rate 78.10% (+1.43%); Printing and dyeing East China operating rate 63.23% (+0.00%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate 80.30% (-0.35%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: New maintenance scale is small, previous maintenance devices continue to stop, PVC operating rate declines slightly month - on - month, but there are few planned maintenance in the later period, and PVC production is at a high level in the same period. With the expected new capacity put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate is at a low level in the same period, PVC pipes, profiles and films' operating rate is weakly stable, downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and the spot price center of PVC is weakly volatile. Demand is weak [3] - Cost side: The upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, and previous maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. The overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly month - on - month, but manufacturers' loads mostly run at a high level supported by profits. With the expected new capacity of caustic soda put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry is significantly repaired. The reduction of production may weaken, and the expectation of some capacity resumption is strong, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. Non - aluminum downstream terminal purchases are cautious, mainly replenishing on - demand, and the operating rate of non - aluminum terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and non - aluminum demand remains weak [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and supply pressure continue, domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment continuity and alumina capacity resumption progress [4]