Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and aerospace industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [7]. Core Insights - The Long March 12甲 rocket, despite not achieving its primary recovery goal, has provided valuable experience and is a crucial step in China's development of reusable rocket technology [10][11]. - The Wenchang International Aerospace Forum has opened, signaling rapid advancement in the commercialization and industrialization of the aerospace sector in China [12]. - The report emphasizes continued optimism for commercial aerospace, unmanned systems, new combat capabilities, and military trade as key growth areas [13]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Long March 12甲 Rocket - The Long March 12甲 rocket's recent launch did not meet the recovery target for the first stage, but it successfully gathered critical data for future missions [10][11]. - The failure is seen as part of the iterative process necessary for achieving reusable technology, similar to the development path of SpaceX's Falcon 9 [11]. 1.2 Wenchang International Aerospace Forum - The forum aims to enhance the aerospace industry in Hainan, focusing on building a comprehensive ecosystem that includes rocket, satellite, and data services [12]. - The government is shifting its focus from merely launching rockets to developing downstream services and applications, indicating a move towards a more integrated aerospace industry [12]. 1.3 Future Outlook - As the 14th Five-Year Plan approaches, the report highlights the importance of new technologies in defense, including unmanned systems and deep-sea technology [13]. - The report suggests that military and civilian sectors will become significant growth drivers, with a focus on expanding military trade and high-end equipment exports [13]. Investment Targets - The report lists several investment targets in the commercial aerospace sector, including: - Aerospace Electronics (600879, Buy) - National Science and Technology Military Industry (688543, Not Rated) - Aerospace Power (600343, Not Rated) [13][14].

周末关于商业航天这周分歧的讨论有了结论，不是分歧，是分化。商业航天的票周一（12月29日）分为 两类，一类是别人手里的还在突突，一类是你手里的在分歧。 人家花7亿打板了航天发展，周一怒赚7000万，被称为跨年妖股的有力竞争者，我买了个卫星机构核心 被立案成了真雷科技。仿佛后面两天的剧本我已经看到了，手里的票达芬奇，人家的票玩穿越。 别叫我达芬奇，让我唱首melody。 商业航天这个位置选股如同做奥数题，好歹还是有人能赚到钱，AI那边赚钱的已经不是人。 都不是，是有色。如果在年初买入有色ETF （159876）并持有到现在，已经浮盈90%了。有色锁定年度 冠军的同时把AI打成了副goat。高位高波动是收益率的天敌，有色夺冠的秘诀是不搞轰轰烈烈的加速和 分歧，而是小碎步走趋势，这才叫闷声发大财。 这个走法也决定着，当你注意到期货价格凶猛的时候才想起来买有色股票，往往结局就是当天吃套，周 一冲了锂矿和白银股的朋友应该深有体会。 等到期货阶段性加速了再去掺和个股，往往是多空双杀、反复打脸，与之相比定投基金，做趋势投资就 豁然开朗。 上周日（12月28日）晚上昇腾喜获400亿字节订单的小作文尽管充满了浪漫主义的乐观精神 ...

早上好！先来看重要资讯。 俄方说91架乌无人机袭击普京官邸，泽连斯基否认 据新华社援引今日俄罗斯通讯社29日报道，俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫29日说，乌克兰28日深夜至29日凌晨用91架远程攻击无人机袭击俄罗斯总统普京位于 俄西北部诺夫哥罗德州的官邸，俄方将予以还击。乌克兰总统泽连斯基则称俄方说法"纯属捏造"。 据俄外交部网站消息，拉夫罗夫说，俄防空部队摧毁所有来袭无人机，暂无人员伤亡或无人机残骸坠地造成损失的报告。 拉夫罗夫说，这次袭击发生在俄美两国为解决乌克兰问题进行密切磋商之际。对于乌方这类行径，俄方不会没有回应。俄军已确定还击的目标和时间。 拉夫罗夫还表示，俄方无意退出围绕乌克兰问题与美国的谈判进程，但鉴于乌方上述行径，俄方将重新审视己方谈判立场。 泽连斯基29日在社交媒体发文对此回应，称俄方关于乌无人机袭击俄总统官邸的说法"纯属捏造"，指认俄方试图破坏乌方与特朗普团队的合作成果。 得知普京官邸遭乌无人机袭击，特朗普"很生气" 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普29日在佛罗里达州海湖庄园与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡开始会晤前说，他当天早晨与俄罗斯总统普京通电话时，被对方告知 乌克兰无人机袭击了普京一处官邸，"我对此很 ...

Market Overview - Precious metals and U.S. stocks experienced a pullback, with major tech stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta declining due to reduced bets by traders ahead of year-end [1] - Tesla's stock fell by 3.27%, leading the decline among major tech stocks, as its supply contract with South Korea's L&F was reduced by 99% [29] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.75 basis points to 4.11%, while the dollar remained stable [1] - Bitcoin briefly surged above $90,000 before dropping back below $87,000, and Ethereum also saw a significant reversal [1] - Silver prices dropped over 8% after briefly surpassing $80, marking a significant decline [1] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.6% [1] Digital Currency - The People's Bank of China announced that a new digital RMB framework will officially launch on January 1, 2026, transitioning from digital cash to digital deposit money [2][18] - The digital RMB will be a modern digital payment method with attributes of commercial bank liabilities, compatible with distributed ledger technology [18][19] Silver Market - Reports suggest that a systemically important bank faced a margin call due to a short position in silver futures, leading to speculation about a European bank's involvement [3][19] - The National Investment Silver LOF warned investors about the risks of investing in high premium funds, as its net asset value lagged behind silver futures [19] - Analysts highlighted potential short-term risks for silver, including tax-driven year-end selling and a strong dollar [20] AI and Tech Companies - Meta is set to acquire Manus for several billion dollars, marking its third-largest acquisition to date [10][21] - Michael Burry has taken a short position against Nvidia and Palantir, arguing that the AI hype mirrors the internet bubble [22] - The upcoming CES in Las Vegas will be crucial for AI hardware companies to demonstrate real consumer value [22] Stock Market Predictions - Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will continue to rise in 2026, with no bearish outlook among strategists [8][21] - Concerns were raised about the potential risks of widespread optimism in the market [21] Robotics and Automation - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with a projected increase in global shipments by over seven times in 2026 [31] - The opening of offline stores for humanoid robots is anticipated to enhance product iteration and standardization [31] Other Notable Developments - Semiconductor companies are expected to benefit from the ongoing "super cycle" in memory demand driven by AI [28] - The logistics sector is set to undergo standardization improvements as part of a national initiative [33]

今日提示 ·中国气象局定于12月30日（周二）召开2026年1月新闻发布会，发布《全球气象发展报告2025》等内 容，并回答记者提问。 ·2025中国绿氢产业大会在北京举行。 ·天箭科技（002977）公告显示，公司预计调减当期营业收入约2.56亿元，预计影响归属于上市公司股东 的当期净利润约为-2.09亿元。根据相关规定，公司预计2025年度扣非净利润为负且扣除后营业收入低 于3亿元，公司股票交易可能被实施退市风险警示。 ·赣锋锂业公告，公司于2025年12月29日收到宜春市公安局的移送起诉告知书，因涉嫌内幕交易罪单位 犯罪，案件已移送检察机关审查起诉。该事项系在江西证监局行政处罚的基础上，依法开展的后续正常 司法程序。 上证精选 ·财政部、税务总局就广告费和业务宣传费支出税前扣除有关事项发布公告，烟草企业的烟草广告费和 业务宣传费支出，一律不得在计算应纳税所得额时扣除。 ·财政部数据显示，1—11月国有企业营业总收入756257.6亿元，同比增长1.0%；1—11月国有企业利润 总额37194.5亿元，同比下降3.1%；1—11月国有企业应交税费52803.0亿元，同比增长0.2%。 ·上海市商务委员会等 ...

发展意义 未来产业既是全球价值链重构的"主战场"，也是培育新质生产力、塑造长期竞争优势的"先手棋"。一方面，它们以颠覆性技术突破和跨界融合为特征，能够 带动传统产业升级、催生全新业态；另一方面，其高成长、高附加值、高外溢属性，可在短期内形成万亿级增量市场，在中长期构筑国家科技安全屏障。 一、未来新十大万亿产业发展背景 赛道竞争形势 全球已呈"引领型国家领跑、追赶型国家加速"格局。美、欧、日、韩通过立法、补贴、标准、人才四位一体的体制机制创新，在先进制造、人工智能、量子 科技、新一代通信等领域构筑起"技术—产业—生态"全面领先优势。麦肯锡预测，仅人工智能一项，2030 年即可为全球经济贡献 25.6 万亿美元，相当于全 球 GDP 的 8%；GVR 则给出人形机器人 2023-2030 年 21% 以上的复合增速。面对新一轮科技-产业革命，中国正处于新旧动能接续转换、经济转型升级的关 键窗口期，30 余个省级行政区密集出台未来产业政策，标志着"顶层战略+地方试点"的中国路径全面开启。 二、国内外赛道布局全景扫描 国外布局 量子科技：美欧日聚焦量子通信、量子计算、量子加密、量子互联网、量子传感器全链条； 人工智能 ...

投资者可关注相关产品：A500ETF基金（512050）【场外联接（A类：022430；C类：022431；Y 类：022979）】、A500增强ETF基金（512370）。 每日经济新闻 12月29日，A股三大指数午后有所回落。板块上，商业航天延续强势，人形机器人、能源金属概念 股涨幅靠前。截至13:35，A500ETF基金（512050）下跌0.34 %，持仓股迈为股份、光威复材涨超10%， 海格通信、金风科技、航天发展等多股涨停。截至发文，该ETF盘中换手28.89%，成交额超114亿元， 排名可比基金第一。 华西证券表示，多路资金抢跑"春季躁动"行情，逢低布局为主。一方面，海外货币政策不确定性消 退，后续国内春节与两会召开时间较为接近，节前对两会的政策预期有望支撑风险偏好；另一方面，年 初通常是保险、年金等绝对收益资金进行新一轮配置的窗口期，在政策预期向好的背景下，增量资金入 场意愿较强，近期国内机构资金、融资资金等已出现"抢跑"迹象。春季行情或接续演绎，且更多呈 现"结构性、板块轮动较快"的特征。 展望后市，中泰证券指出：当前阶段，制约市场的主要风险因素已较前期明显弱化，风险偏好有望 维持较高水平。 ...

Group 1 - The company, 越疆, announced its plan to initiate an initial public offering (IPO) of RMB ordinary shares and list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange by December 29, 2025, to enhance business development and overall competitiveness [1] - The board of directors has approved the commencement of work related to the proposed A-share listing [1] Group 2 - The current market environment is characterized by a split, with certain sectors like commercial aerospace experiencing significant gains while others, such as pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, are facing declines [3] - The market is described as a structural rally rather than a broad bull market, indicating that funds are concentrated in specific sectors with compelling narratives, leaving many investors in a position where they are "only earning the index" without actual profits [3] - Two strategies are suggested for investors: one is to focus on the leading sectors like commercial aerospace while being cautious about chasing highs; the other is to consider undervalued sectors that have solid fundamentals but are currently overlooked, such as core assets in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors [4]

12月29日航天环宇（688523）收盘价52.87元，收盘涨停，全天换手率36.11%，振幅26.18%，成交额 16.94亿元。科创板交易公开信息显示，当日该股因日换手率达30%、日收盘价涨幅达15%等上榜。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交5.37亿元， 其中，买入成交额为3.08亿 元，卖出成交额为2.29亿元，合计净买入7923.57万元。具体来看，今日上榜的前五大买入营业部中，沪 股通为第一大买入营业部，买入金额为10766.84万元，营业部合计买入2.01亿元。卖出营业部中，卖出 金额居首的是财信证券股份有限公司长沙五一大道证券营业部，卖出金额为5862.47万元。买卖金额相 抵，沪股通今日净买入该股1.08亿元。 资金流向方面，该股今日全天主力资金净流入6984.57万元。 另据统计，近半年该股累计上榜龙虎榜13次，上榜次日股价平均涨0.57%，上榜后5日平均涨6.41%。 （数据宝） | 买入营业部名称 | 买入金额(万元) | | --- | --- | | 沪股通专用 | 10766.84 | | 高盛(中国)证券有限责任公司上海浦东新区世纪大道证券营业部 | 7 ...

证券研究报告|策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 长征十二号甲入轨成功，商业航天 IPO 新规落地 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（1229） 本周产业趋势主要集中在商业航天和人工智能。商业航天方面，2025 年 12 月 23 日 10:00，长征十二号甲遥一运载火箭在酒泉卫星发射中心东风商业航天创 新试验区顺利点火升空，并成功将载荷送入预定轨道，实现"入轨成功"，但 一级火箭回收未实现预定软着陆目标。上海证券交易所正式发布并实施商业火 箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准，其中最关键的技术指标是：企业需在申报 前实现至少一次采用可重复使用技术的中大型运载火箭发射载荷成功入轨。人 工智能方面，12 月 18 日，路透社报道称， OpenAI 正与部分投资者就新一轮 融资展开初步讨论，拟募集资金规模最高或达 1000 亿美元。据知情人士透露， 这轮仍处于早期阶段的融资若按目标全额筹集，公司估值或将高达 8300 亿美 元。 【主题与产业趋势】长征十二号甲入轨成功，商业航天 IPO 新规落地。2025 年 12 月 23 日 10:00，长征十二号甲遥一运载火箭在酒泉卫星发射中心东风商 业航天创新试验区顺利点火 ...