1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is currently in a stalemate with steel products under pressure from supra - seasonal inventory accumulation and limited upward movement in the futures market. The market awaits signals of improved peak - season demand or supply contraction. Iron ore prices are relatively firm due to steel mill复产 and weak coking coal, but there are accumulating risks in the industry chain. The coking coal and coke market has a deteriorating supply - demand balance in the short - term, and the rebound space of coking coal is limited. The ferroalloy market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the glass market has a near - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand [3][20][30][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Section - **Market News Impact**: News that the Guinea government may require mining companies to build local smelters has potentially affected the shipping expectations of Simandou iron ore, pushing up the iron ore futures market, but the event is highly uncertain [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The market interprets the price increase as due to steel mill复产 and restocking after the parade and a decline in Brazilian ore shipments. Currently, hot metal production is expected to quickly return to a high level, while steel products are in a supra - seasonal de - stocking phase. In this situation, profits should be reduced to suppress supply, but the peak - season demand has not been falsified, and there is resistance to the downward movement of steel product prices, allowing raw materials to squeeze profits [3]. - **Price Outlook**: The steel futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the near term, waiting for verification of peak - season demand. Breaking the current deadlock requires signals of substantial improvement in peak - season demand or actual supply contraction [3]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3109 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3342 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan from the previous day [4]. Iron Ore Section - **Price Influencing Factors**: The main reason for yesterday's price increase was a news report, but the possibility of binding smelter construction to iron ore mining is low, and the event has poor tradability. Iron ore prices have been relatively firm recently due to steel mill复产 and weak coking coal, but there are increasing risks in the industry chain, including low steel mill profits, supra - seasonal inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils, rising rebar inventory, and increasing supply pressure [20]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of 01 iron ore contract was 805 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of 05 contract was 781 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 847.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 5, 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 228.84 tons, a weekly decrease of 11.29 tons; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 317.78 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.86 tons; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 828 tons, a weekly decrease of 30 tons [24]. Coal and Coke Section - **Market Situation**: After the end of production restrictions, mines have resumed production. Steel mills have initiated a round of price cuts, and coking enterprises are pessimistic about the future, with a willingness to reduce coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance of coking coal has deteriorated marginally, while the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. In the short - term, the coking coal rebound space is limited, and in the long - term, investors need to be vigilant about the impact of macro - sentiment fluctuations on the coal and coke market [30]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1573 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34]. Ferroalloy Section - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [44]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 28 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day; the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day [45][48]. Soda Ash Section - **Market Situation**: The mid - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is relatively stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to changes in cost and supply expectations [58]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1353 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 1162 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 01 contract was 1281 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [59]. Glass Section - **Market Situation**: The near - term supply - demand pattern of glass is one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and limited short - term restocking ability. The supply is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend. The market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Attention should be paid to supply ignition expectations, coal price trends, and the impact of seasonal demand on inventory [84]. - **Price Data**: On September 10, 2025, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1279 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 09 contract was 995 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of 01 contract was 1181 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and gives corresponding trend judgments and operation suggestions [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Judgment**: Downstream construction restart expectations support raw material valuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][4][5] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 501,397 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Super Special (56.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 688.0 yuan/ton, while the price of PB (61.5%) decreased by 3.0 yuan to 782.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Judgment**: Affected by market sentiment, both show a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) for rebar and 1 (slightly strong) for hot-rolled coils [2][8][9] - **Fundamental Data**: The rebar futures contract RB2510 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.79%, and the open interest decreased by 51,071 lots. The hot-rolled coil futures contract HC2510 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 1.39%, and the open interest decreased by 29,686 lots. Spot prices generally increased slightly [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month. The export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2.2% from the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative export of steel was 67.983 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Judgment**: Market anti-involution information has heated up again, both showing a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 1 (slightly strong) [2][13][16] - **Fundamental Data**: The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5,598 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan, and the silicomanganese 2511 contract closed at 5,830 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple steel mills have determined ferrosilicon and silicomanganese procurement prices and quantities. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi-carbonate lump ore and Australian lump ore in October 2025, both up 0.05 US dollars/ton-degree from the previous month. As of September 5, the total manganese ore inventory was 440.48 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous month [14][17] Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Judgment**: Expectations are fluctuating, showing a wide-range volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) [2][18][19] - **Fundamental Data**: The coking coal futures contract JM2601 closed at 1,094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan or 1.0%, and the coke futures contract J2601 closed at 1,581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Steady Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [19] Logs - **Market Judgment**: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][21][24] - **Fundamental Data**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed different degrees of decline. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [24]

黑色建材日报 2025-09-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3143 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 26 元/吨（0.834%）。当日注册仓单 230131 吨, 环比增加 7582 吨。主力合约持仓量为 173.7894 万手，环比增加 1462 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3340 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 27 元/吨（0.814%）。 当日注册仓单 24459 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.0035 万手，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the black sector in the near future (before mid - October) will be on the verification of real - end demand. There is a risk of a phased downward correction in demand, and peak - season demand may not match the current high supply, which will put pressure on prices and suppress the overall price of the black sector [15][96]. - The "anti - involution" in the commodities market is more of a rebound due to emotional fluctuations after prices have fallen to a phased low. Whether it can develop a second - stage market similar to the supply - side structural reform depends on the actual implementation and effects of the "anti - involution" policy [15][96]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal, and their operability is relatively low [15][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week and 306 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 60 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.04%, at a neutral level [14][20]. - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 350 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week and 13 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, - 490 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from last week and 173 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, - 681 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from last week and 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][25]. - **Cost**: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6030 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, 5990 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, 6361 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 30 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][30]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon was 21.28 tons, down 0.06 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output decreased by about 2.68% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [14][44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 218.68 tons, down 1.88 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44% [14][58]. - **Inventory**: The estimated explicit inventory of manganese silicon was 48.69 tons, down 0.82 tons from last week, continuing to decline but still at a high level compared with the same period [14][69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support level around 5600 yuan/ton [15][78]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.04%, at a neutral level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [25]. - **Cost**: The prices of manganese ore and some raw materials changed. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in main production areas had different changes [27][30]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly and monthly output of manganese silicon had different trends, with a year - on - year decrease in cumulative output from January to August [44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The steel mill's profitability decreased by 2.6 pct to 61.04% [58][61][62]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of manganese silicon continued to decline, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low historical level [69][72][75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the manganese silicon futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [78]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week and 338 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 154 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.73%, at a relatively high level [95][101]. - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [95][106]. - **Cost**: The estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [95][112]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of silicon iron was 11.5 tons, up 0.19 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output increased by about 1.22% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [95][117]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. The cumulative output of metallic magnesium from January to August decreased by 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. The cumulative export of silicon iron from January to July decreased by 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year [95][126][129]. - **Inventory**: The estimated explicit inventory of silicon iron was 16.78 tons, down 0.16 tons from last week, remaining at a high level compared with the same period [95][140]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support levels of 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [96][149]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, the basis was 154 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.73%, at a relatively high level [101]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in main production areas decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [106]. - **Cost**: The prices of some raw materials were stable, and the estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [109][112]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly and monthly output of silicon iron increased, with a year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to August [117]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had different trends. The daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The output of metallic magnesium and silicon iron exports decreased year - on - year [126][129][132]. 3.2.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of silicon iron continued to decline, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low level compared with the same period [140][143]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the silicon iron futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [149].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, demonstrating resilience in profitability despite the downturn in the ferroalloy and caustic soda PVC industries. The report anticipates limited further decline in the industry, with the company's performance gradually stabilizing [2][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 27,006 million, a decrease of 4.9% from 2024 - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,054 million, reflecting an increase of 11.2% from 2024 - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan for 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.89 yuan by 2027 - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.8% in 2024 to 11.1% in 2027 [4][12] Industry Performance - The ferroalloy segment showed stable operations, with silicon iron and silicon manganese production at 79.28 and 9.58 million tons respectively in the first half of 2025 - The PVC and caustic soda segments experienced production growth, with PVC output at 54.33 million tons and caustic soda at 36.32 million tons, reflecting increases of 2.54 and 2.11 million tons respectively [11][12] Valuation - The target price for the company has been raised to 13.14 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times for 2025, which is slightly below the industry average of 21.33 times [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The high supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese suppresses prices, but there is support from the cost side [4]. - The "anti - involution" rumor led to a rebound in ferrous alloy prices, but the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated. If the price exceeds the cost line by more than 200, attention should be paid to the pressure [4]. - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, if the demand recovery in September is slow, steel mills may cut production to reduce inventory, leading to downward pressure on raw material demand [4]. - The cost of ferromanganese is supported by stable electricity prices in major production areas, stable port inventory of manganese ore (significantly lower than last year), firm spot prices at ports, and a slightly stronger quotation from overseas mines in October [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the output of ferrosilicon increased slightly, while that of ferromanganese decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to whether the output will continue to decline [4]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased significantly due to the military parade and is expected to rebound next week, which will boost raw material demand. However, the continuous increase in steel inventory may lead to steel mill production cuts and downward pressure on raw material demand if the demand recovery in September is slow [4]. - **Cost**: The electricity price in major production areas and the port inventory of manganese ore are stable. The port inventory of manganese ore is significantly lower than last year, and the spot price at ports is firm. Overseas mines' quotations for October are slightly stronger, providing support for ferromanganese [4]. - **Market sentiment**: The "anti - involution" rumor on Friday led to a significant rebound in ferrous alloy prices. However, the rumor is unconfirmed, and the high - supply problem remains, so the upside potential of the rebound should not be over - estimated [4]. 3.1.2 Strategy - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, follow the rebound. Due to the high - supply problem, do not be overly optimistic about the rebound height. Pay attention to the pressure levels of around 5800 for ferrosilicon and 6000 for ferromanganese [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis No specific content that can be summarized separately is provided. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 228.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.01 tons (about 70% of the total demand), a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.37 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon was 11.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 46.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The weekly supply of ferromanganese (99%) was 21.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 16.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.15 tons [12]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and basis trends are presented [16][17]. 3.3.3 Production Situation of Dual - Silicon Enterprises No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of weekly output and operating rate trends are presented [21][22]. 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of blast furnace capacity utilization, steel production, profitability, and inventory trends are presented [27][28]. 3.3.5 Ferromanganese Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5798 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 118 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5880 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 380 yuan/ton; in Guangxi, the production cost was 6393 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 693 yuan/ton; in Guizhou, the production cost was 6133 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 483 yuan/ton. The production cost in the north was 5824 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 206 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost was 6247 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 575 yuan/ton [30]. 3.3.6 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On September 4, 2025, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5535 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 315 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the production cost was 5588 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 388 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, the production cost was 5600 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 400 yuan/ton; in Qinghai, the production cost was 5457 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 257 yuan/ton; in Gansu, the production cost was 5609 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 409 yuan/ton [40]. 3.3.7 Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [47][48]. 3.3.8 Bidding Prices of Dual - Silicon by Representative Steel Mills in Hebei No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price trends are presented [52][53]. 3.3.9 Monthly Output of Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of output and cumulative output trends are presented [58][59]. 3.3.10 Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of import and export volume trends are presented [65][66]. 3.3.11 Demand for Magnesium Metal No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of price and output trends are presented [68][69]. 3.3.12 Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants and Steel Mills No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [71][72]. 3.3.13 Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports No specific data and analysis content that can be summarized are provided, only charts of inventory and available - days trends are presented [73][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, with potential for demand repair but continued inventory accumulation. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow. Coal prices face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not materialize [3][4]. - The double - coking market is expected to have low activity, with prices in a wide - range oscillation due to balanced supply - demand and uncertainty in future coal production regulation [9]. - The iron ore market will mainly oscillate, with supply from major mines remaining stable and demand showing a pattern of weakening domestic demand and high - growth overseas demand [12]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are expected to have bottom - oscillating prices, with supply at a high level and demand facing some uncertainties [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Most steel mills in Tangshan conducted blast furnace maintenance from August 31 to September 3, with a production restriction of 30% - 40%. Most resumed production on September 4. US ADP employment in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions changed slightly [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend at night. This week, steel production decreased significantly due to the parade, and demand in North China was also affected, leading to faster inventory accumulation. Iron - water production is expected to recover rapidly next week, but demand is still in the off - season. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Hold short positions on the hot - rolled - rebar spread and enter a 1 - 5 positive spread; Option: Wait and see [6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased, and the daily output of raw coal and clean coal decreased. The inventory of raw coal increased, while that of clean coal decreased. Steel mill indicators such as blast furnace operation rate and iron - water output also changed. Spot prices of coke and coking coal were provided [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the event, coal mines and steel mills are resuming production. Weak steel prices restrict raw - material prices. Coking coal prices are declining slightly, and coke prices are stable but with a downward - adjustment expectation. The supply - demand of coking coal is balanced, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US - Japan trade agreement was implemented, and US ADP employment data was released. The balance of personal mortgage loans of six major state - owned banks decreased. Spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased, and the basis of the 01 iron - ore main contract was provided [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron - ore prices oscillated at a high level this week. Supply from major mines was stable, and non - mainstream supply increased. Domestic demand for steel in the manufacturing industry weakened, while overseas demand remained high. The market expectation was volatile [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate, with spot hedging at a phased high; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: Spot prices of manganese ore and the purchase price of ferrosilicon by a steel mill were provided [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, with supply at a high level and demand facing uncertainties. The spot price of silicomanganese was also slightly weak, with supply and demand in a state of balance and cost relatively stable [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillate; Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on spot - futures positive spreads; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [16].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the supply and demand dynamics of the ferroalloy industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] - According to data from Chinese customs, in July 2025, China's ferroalloy export volume reached 60,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - The export value for the same period was $11.2 million, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 16.2% [1] Industry Overview - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industrial consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1] - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, offering tailored solutions for investment decision-making [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is generally weak. Although steel product prices show a slightly stronger oscillation, they are under overall pressure. With the end of the parade, steel mills in Tangshan have resumed production, and the export volume increased slightly last week but remains in a weak oscillation pattern. The demand for steel is weak in the peak season, and the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, prices may decline further. The raw material end is more stable than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron after the important nodes. The price of ferroalloys continues to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The market is gradually shifting from trading on expectations to trading on the real - world situation, and the prices will move closer to the fundamentals. For manganese silicon, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. For silicon iron, attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies [7][11][12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the supply pressure exceeding the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [15][16][18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.354%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 222,549 tons, a net increase of 896 tons. The main contract position was 1.736432 million lots, a net decrease of 18,381 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, a net decrease of 301 tons. The main contract position was 1.283425 million lots, a net increase of 34,343 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rebar apparent demand remains weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure intensifies. The hot - rolled coil production reduction is significant, the apparent demand decreases significantly month - on - month, the overall demand is moderately weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The steel price is under obvious pressure due to high production and insufficient demand. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the disk shows weak characteristics [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.87% (+14.50), and the position increased by 41,053 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 821,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.16% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has increased recently. The daily average molten iron output decreased significantly, mainly in North China. The port inventory has increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory has decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron [7]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On September 4, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.03% at 5730 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.43% at 5496 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys continue to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The manganese silicon market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes and relevant policies. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.29% (+25). The weighted contract position decreased by 3039 lots to 481,904 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.07% (+35). The weighted contract position decreased by 3866 lots to 316,993 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with supply pressure exceeding demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and strong influence from news [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, also unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, a net increase of 484,000 weight cases (+0.77%) month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1190 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a net increase of 2800 tons (+0.15%) [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Categories Price - **Silicon Iron**: On September 4, 2025, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia were 5200 and 5250 respectively, with no daily change but a weekly decrease of 150 and 100. The export price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change. The latest price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5950, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 50 [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 4, 2025, the latest factory - ex prices of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan were 5680, 5500, 5700, 5650, and 5650 respectively, with no daily change but weekly decreases ranging from 70 to 120 [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and the monthly capacity utilization rates of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, as well as the monthly procurement prices and quantities of 6517 silicon manganese by HeSteel Group [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: Related demand indicators such as China's estimated and statistical monthly crude steel production, national magnesium production, and the procurement prices and quantities of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group from 2021 - 2025 are provided [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand indicators of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, including estimated crude steel production, silicon manganese demand, and export volume, are presented [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly inventory data of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China, including those in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, from 2021 - 2025 are provided, as well as daily warehouse receipt and effective forecast data [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The daily warehouse receipt, effective forecast, and total inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, as well as the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data such as electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data include the production cost, spot profit, and export profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost - related data such as the factory - ex price of chemical coke in Ordos and the prices of various manganese ores at ports from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data include the profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [6][7].