1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of futures prices rising and then falling, with spot prices slightly increasing. There are positive factors in the macro - level, but the industry faces challenges such as high production and insufficient demand. The resolution of high - production issues requires time to accumulate contradictions [4] - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. They are affected by factors such as downstream demand, supply - demand balance, and cost [4] - For coking coal and coke, the spot procurement sentiment has slowed down, and the futures are challenging the "anti - involution" trading high. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future [4] - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating, and it is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities. There may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Futures prices rose and then fell on Tuesday, with spot prices slightly increasing and trading volume shrinking. The macro - level has positive factors, and the industry is in a seasonal destocking phase. However, demand lacks explosive power, and it will take time to resolve high - production problems. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between hot rolled coils and rebar when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for arbitrage. Also, perform rolling stop - profit for cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Due to weak downstream demand, the black sector is under pressure. Although they rebounded under factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a warm macro - environment, the rebound space is narrowing. The prices may fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading atmosphere is average, and a northwest coking enterprise has initiated the third price increase, but the mainstream coking enterprises have not responded. The procurement sentiment has slowed down. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating, and the prices of coking coal and coke on the disk are weakening. The supply - demand tightness may ease in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging for part of the spot when the coke disk is at a premium [4] Iron Ore - There are many trade disputes, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of negotiation results on commodities. The supply side has no major problems, but there may be an oversupply situation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term and is difficult to improve substantially. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks and overseas macro - environment changes on market sentiment [2]. - The iron ore market is currently weak in reality, with the overall market in a tug - of - war situation, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. - For the black sector, it is still not pessimistic. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short. The subsequent height after the rebound needs further observation [9]. - Industrial silicon is subject to real - world constraints and is likely to fluctuate with the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of relevant news [15]. - The glass futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the interweaving of long and short factors [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to continue the narrow - range consolidation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in device operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3058 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 22644 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.181%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3296 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8933 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly decreased, the demand improved marginally, the inventory was still at a high level, but the de - stocking process accelerated, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills has significantly declined recently, and the molten iron output has significantly decreased, reducing the supply - side pressure [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 792.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.76% (+ 6.00), and the positions changed by - 9902 lots to 54.89 million lots. The weighted positions were 92.41 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.15 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.40% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase month - on - month in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output dropped below 240,000 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased. Overall, the iron ore price is under pressure, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.21% at 5790 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed flat at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 86 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - There are still supply - constraint expectations for ferroalloys. The current situation of steel mills is gradually becoming obvious, and there is a risk of "negative feedback". For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and its potential driving force may come from the manganese ore end [8][9]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.11% (- 10). The weighted contract positions changed by - 1744 lots to 433,386 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 345 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 105 yuan/ton [11]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon continues, and the demand support weakens. The cost provides a bottom - support effect. It is easy to fluctuate with the commodity environment and will consolidate in the short term [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 54,355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.27% (- 145). The weighted contract positions changed by + 4813 lots to 255,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 1375 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polysilicon may be marginally alleviated. The downstream operating rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. Pay attention to the implementation of relevant news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: The main contract of glass closed at 1113 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+ 18). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 233.74 million cases (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 25,212 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 86,221 short positions [17]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The glass market is mainly trading low - price goods, the demand recovery is slow, and the raw - material soda ash price provides cost support. The glass futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Information: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 7). The inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 0.16 million tons (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 2798 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9227 short positions [19]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The supply of soda ash is stable, the cost pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment demand is mainly for low - price and rigid needs. The soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on October 29, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5170 and 5220 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 40 and 70 [2]. - The latest price of Shaanxi 75 silicon ferroalloy is 5750, with a daily and weekly change of -50 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy are 1055 and 1105 (in US dollars) respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 are 5680, 5580, 5650, 5600, and 5600 respectively, with no daily changes [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also shown, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, such as the estimated production of crude steel, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the demand for silicon manganese (Steel Union caliber) [5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also shown, including the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are provided, such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [6]. - The cost - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also presented, including the price of chemical coke, the price of manganese ore, and the profit in different regions [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with cost support and high inventory pressure coexisting, limiting the upside potential of prices. Future focus should be on the release of new production capacity in the north and the rhythm of production cuts in the south [7]. - The silicon ferro market is in a stalemate between cost support and weak demand. Short - term prices are resilient due to macro - sentiment but have limited upside potential. Future focus should be on changes in production in major producing areas and terminal demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Viewpoints Silicon Manganese - **Price**: As of October 24, the prices of silicon manganese 6517 in most major producing areas remained stable, with a slight decline in Ningxia [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: Costs in various regions generally decreased or remained stable, with profit losses showing differentiation. The overall profitability was still poor but with local improvements [4]. - **Supply**: As of October 24, the operating rate and output of silicon manganese enterprises continued to decline, and the supply pressure continued to ease [4]. - **Demand**: As of October 24, the daily output of molten iron decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the weekly demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Factory - end inventory continued to increase, especially in Ningxia. The inventory of steel mills decreased slightly but remained at a medium - high level overall [5]. - **Manganese Ore Supply and Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased, with significant changes in the inventory of different types of manganese ore at different ports [6]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon manganese market continued to oscillate last week. Supply pressure eased, but high - inventory limited price increases. Demand was acceptable, and cost support was enhanced. Overall, it will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Silicon Ferro - **Price**: As of October 24, the prices of silicon ferro 72 in major producing areas generally increased, and market sentiment improved [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased overall, and profit performance was differentiated, with losses deepening in some areas [8]. - **Supply**: As of October 24, the operating rate and output in major producing areas increased slightly, and the supply pressure remained high [8]. - **Demand**: Steel mills' procurement of silicon ferro increased slightly, but it was still in a "peak - season without peak" state. Non - steel demand was weak [9]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise - end inventory decreased, with significant destocking in Inner Mongolia, while steel - mill inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Blue Coke Supply and Inventory**: The price of blue coke increased, supply recovered slightly, and inventory accumulated [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The silicon ferro market showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern last week. Supply pressure remained high, costs increased, demand was weak, and inventory showed different trends at the enterprise and steel - mill ends. It will remain in a stalemate and fluctuate within a range in the short term [10]. Part Two: Silicon Manganese Supply - Demand Tracking - **Price Spread Tracking**: Multiple price spreads of silicon manganese contracts are presented, including 01 - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc., with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [14][19]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions are provided, and the port prices of manganese ore remained firm [26][31]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore is tracked, with a significant decline in the inventory of South African ore in Qinzhou Port [46]. - **Enterprise Operating Rate and Output**: The operating rate and daily output of 187 sample silicon manganese enterprises are shown [55]. - **Steel - Mill Demand**: The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills and the demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products are presented [58]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon manganese in sample enterprises in different regions and the inventory - available days of steel mills are tracked [62][66]. Part Three: Silicon Ferro Supply - Demand Tracking - **Price Spread Tracking**: Multiple price spreads of silicon ferro contracts are presented, including 01 - contract basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc., with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [70][75]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of silicon ferro in different regions increased [79]. - **Cost Factors**: The spot price of blue coke continued to rise, and the electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased [84]. - **Enterprise Operating Rate and Output**: The operating rate and daily output of 136 independent silicon ferro enterprises are shown [94]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon ferro in the five major steel products and the monthly output of crude steel are presented [96]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon ferro in sample enterprises and the inventory - available days of steel mills are tracked [104].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The ferroalloy market is currently oscillating, with the upward momentum gradually weakening after two consecutive days of doji candlesticks at the close. The recent rise in ferroalloy prices has been mainly driven by short - covering, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure levels [4]. - The ferroalloy market is facing several core contradictions, including the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Overall, although supported by coking coal prices, the fundamentals are insufficient to support a significant upward movement, and the upside space is limited [5][7]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.3%. For ferromanganese, the monthly price range forecast is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.93% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.3% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price declines, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. Market Review - The ferroalloy market has been oscillating, and the upward movement has been driven by short - covering. The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [4]. Core Contradictions - **High Inventory and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are declining, and there is little expectation of further production increases. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and the inventory of five major steel products is increasing. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is at a five - year high, with a month - on - month increase of 11.8%, indicating high inventory pressure [5]. - **Cost Support Challenge**: Although the prices of semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the pattern of high supply and weak demand in the ferroalloy market remains unchanged, challenging the effectiveness of cost support. However, the tight supply of coking coal, stricter environmental inspections, and political factors in Mongolia have led to a significant increase in coking coal prices, providing short - term support for ferroalloy prices [5]. - **Contradiction between Expectation and Reality**: The anti - involution sentiment still lingers in the market, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. However, the lack of substantial actions increases the risk of price reversals after reaching highs. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped below 50%, increasing the risk of negative feedback in the black market, which further weakens the already weak fundamentals of steel and ferroalloy. After the Fourth Plenary Session, there was no unexpected total stimulus or strong real - estate stimulus, providing limited support for the strong rebound of the cycle and real - estate chains [5][7]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated market concerns about Sino - US relations; the US CPI inflation data in September was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", proposing a capacity replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron - making and steel - making in each province [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The steel market has failed to meet peak - season expectations, with a significant decline in steel mill profitability and increasing negative feedback pressure, leading to a continuous decline in hot - metal production; Tangshan plans to implement a 30% blast - furnace production restriction for four days from October 27 - 31, reducing the demand for ferroalloys; from January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and various real - estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume also showed significant declines [8]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: The daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts compared to previous days and weeks [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar to silicon iron, the daily data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts, with corresponding changes [10][11]. Seasonal Charts - The report provides multiple seasonal charts, including those for silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze the historical patterns and trends of these factors [12][14][25][35]

Group 1: Market Information - SF主力合约收盘价5564，日变动0，周变动90，成交量107258，日变化-25091，持仓量166396，日变化1488 [2] - SM主力合约收盘价5790，日变动-12，周变动44，成交量175067，日变化44726，持仓量343779，日变化-2201 [2] - 硅铁72%FeSi内蒙现货价5320，日变动0，周变动70；宁夏5270，日变动0，周变动40；青海5300，日变动0，周变动50；江苏5650，日变动0，周变动100；天津5650，日变动0，周变动50 [2] - 硅锰6517内蒙现货价5680，日变动0，周变动0；宁夏5580，日变动0，周变动0；广西5650，日变动0，周变动0；江苏5750，日变动0，周变动30；天津5720，日变动0，周变动20 [2] - 硅铁内蒙-主力基差-244，日变动0，周变动-20；宁夏-主力-294，日变动0，周变动-50；青海-主力-264，日变动0，周变动-40；江苏-内蒙330，日变动0，周变动30；SF - SM价差-226，日变动12，周变动46 [2] - 锰硅内蒙-主力基差-110，日变动12，周变动-44；宁夏-主力-210，日变动12，周变动-44；广西-主力-140，日变动12，周变动-44；广西-内蒙-30，日变动0，周变动0 [2] - 锰矿天津港澳块当日价38.8，日变动0，周变动-0.4；南非半碳酸34，日变动0，周变动0；加蓬块39.8，日变动0.1，周变动0 [2] - 兰炭小料陕西当日价750，日变动0，周变动50；宁夏810，日变动0，周变动50；内蒙800，日变动0，周变动95 [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - 10月28日铁合金期货价格整体下跌，硅铁主力合约环比持平，持仓增加1488手；锰硅主力合约下跌0.21%，持仓减少2201手 [5] - 硅铁供应端产量再度小幅增加，减产未形成趋势；需求端钢材库存小幅去化但总量压力仍在，唐山地区阶段性限产冲击原料需求，宏观情绪提振消退，自身供需压力仍在，现货跟进慢，估值修复后可作空头配置 [5] - 锰硅28日锰矿现货稳中偏强，天津港加蓬块涨0.1元/吨度，现货价格整体平稳；供应端样本企业产量小幅下降但绝对值仍处高位；需求端铁水产量连续下降冲击原料需求，宏观利好情绪提振消退，自身供需压力仍在，估值修复后可作空头配置 [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - 单边：供需压力仍在，可作空头配置 [6] - 套利：观望 [6] - 期权：卖出虚值跨式期权组合 [6] Group 4: Important Information - 28日天津港半碳酸Mn36.78%Fe4.38%报价34.5元/吨度，澳块Mn40.5%报价39元/吨度，非中铁块Mn42.16%Fe16.47%报价35.8元/吨度 [7] - 内蒙某硅锰厂9月中上旬减产2台硅锰6517炉子，已转产其他产品，10月中下旬再度减产2台6517矿热炉 [7] Group 5: Cost and Profit - 硅铁内蒙生产成本5616元/吨，利润-416元/吨；宁夏生产成本5513元/吨，利润-333元/吨；陕西生产成本5597元/吨，利润-397元/吨；青海生产成本5331元/吨，利润-131元/吨；甘肃生产成本5619元/吨，利润-369元/吨 [18] - 硅锰内蒙生产成本5806元/吨，利润-126元/吨；宁夏生产成本5852元/吨，利润-272元/吨；广西生产成本6354元/吨，利润-704元/吨；贵州生产成本6176元/吨，利润-576元/吨 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron on October 28, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5170 and 5220 respectively, with a daily change of -30 and a weekly change of 40. The latest prices of the main contract and 01 contract are 5564, with a daily change of 22 and a weekly change of 128 [2]. - For silicon manganese on the same day, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 are 5680, 5580, 5650, 5600, and 5600 respectively. The latest price of the main contract is 5802, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 64 [2]. Supply - The report presents historical production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly production and capacity utilization in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5]. - It also shows the historical production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, including weekly production and enterprise operating rates [7]. Demand - The report shows historical data of demand - related indicators for silicon iron and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the demand volume of silicon manganese (Steel Union caliber), and the procurement volume and price of silicon iron and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [5][7][8]. Inventory - For silicon iron, it shows the historical inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the historical data of CZCE silicon - iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of the two [6]. - For silicon manganese, it presents the historical data of CZCE silicon - manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, the sum of the two, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [8]. Cost and Profit - The report shows the historical data of electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) for ferroalloys from 2021 - 2025, as well as the historical data of prices, operating rates, production gross profits of related raw materials such as semi - carbonated manganese ore, manganese ore, and blue carbon [6]. - It also presents the historical cost and profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi) from 2021 - 2025, including production costs, profits converted to the main contract, and spot profits [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report maintains an optimistic view of the future of the black sector. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually easing macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term. For specific varieties, each has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as Sino - US negotiations and overseas macro - environment changes [1][4][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (1.772%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 128,819 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.953001 million lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3140 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (1.507%). The registered warehouse receipts were 104,667 tons, a decrease of 2398 tons, and the position of the main contract was 1.48273 million lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, and the prices of finished steel products fluctuated strongly. Sino - US relations were moderately eased, and the results of the trade negotiations needed to be focused on. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, the demand improved marginally, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills declined significantly, and the supply - side pressure was reduced. In the medium to long - term, the logic of rising steel prices remained unchanged, but the real demand was still weak in the short term [1]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 786.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.01% (+15.50). The position changed by - 6796 lots to 558,800 lots. The weighted position was 944,200 lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.62% [3]. Strategy View - The market sentiment improved, and the iron ore futures rebounded at the technical support level. The overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase, and the recent arrival volume was at a low level. The daily average pig iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The macro - environment had a certain positive impact, and the iron ore price fluctuated [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.52% to close at 5802 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 108 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) rose 0.40% to close at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 86 yuan/ton over the futures. The prices of both were in the shock range and needed to pay attention to the support level and the direction selection near the trend line [7]. Strategy View - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee had positive statements, but there was no content exceeding market expectations. It was necessary to pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the black sector were worrying due to high supply and low demand, and there was a risk of "negative feedback" in steel mills. The report was still not pessimistic about the black sector, and it was more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were likely to follow the black sector's trend [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The weighted position increased by 7556 lots to 435,130 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 115 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54,500 yuan/ton, up 4.20% (+2195). The weighted position increased by 19,404 lots to 251,023 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis was - 1520 yuan/ton [11][14]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon was slightly up. The supply pressure continued, and the demand support weakened. The cost provided some support, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The polysilicon futures rose due to downstream buying and news rumors. The supply pressure might be alleviated marginally, and the supply - demand pattern might improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the implementation of news and control risks [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1095 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+3). The prices in North China and Central China decreased. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million cases, up 2.3374 million cases (3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 36,011 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 73,350 lots. The main contract of soda ash closed at 1246 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+17). The price in Shahe increased. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (3.64%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10,679 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 11,314 lots [17][19]. Strategy View - The glass market mainly traded low - price goods, and the demand recovery was slow. The raw material soda ash price provided support, and the glass price was expected to fluctuate widely. The soda ash supply was stable, the cost pressure increased, and the downstream demand was mainly low - price rigid demand. The soda ash price was expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term, and it was necessary to pay attention to the start - up of equipment and downstream procurement [18][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Although the current fundamentals of manganese - silicon are still unfavorable, based on several interesting points, a possible scenario of a trend - rising market is "imagined" under the combination of "unexpected events in the manganese ore sector" and "a turn in commodity sentiment". This scenario, while not guaranteed to materialize, is worthy of attention, especially when the market generally believes that ferroalloys lack market drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese - silicon's Current Situation and Past Analysis - The ferroalloy market has been dull, and in a previous June 2025 report, it was thought that under extremely pessimistic conditions, manganese - silicon prices might reach the "4" level. However, after the 20th Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, the coal price rose and the commodity market's pessimistic atmosphere improved. But the manganese - silicon price did not rise significantly due to its loose fundamentals and lack of effective drivers [4]. - Currently, the supply of manganese - silicon remains high and demand is weak (mainly in the building materials sector), with the loose pattern unchanged and high visible inventory. The price is at a low - valuation state, with the Inner Mongolia cost around 5800 yuan/ton (Steel Union's data) and 5700 yuan/ton (Ferroalloy Online's data), and the current market price close to 5800 yuan/ton [5]. Objective Signals from the Manganese - silicon Market - The manganese - silicon market price (using the weighted index as an example) has gradually converged and is approaching the end of the convergence range after a long - term consolidation. Meanwhile, its volatility (VIX) has dropped to a low level. This combination usually indicates that the commodity may make a directional choice and potentially start a trending market [8][10]. Similarities in the Commodity Environment - The current situation, including the sharp rise of gold and silver, the start of copper's upward trend, and other commodities' stabilization and recovery, gives a strong sense of similarity to the commodity environment in the first quarter and early second quarter of 2024. At that time, gold, silver, and copper led the way, driving up commodity sentiment and causing significant increases in some low - valued and fundamentally - driven commodities. Currently, the commodity market is starting to turn bullish, but it may take time for positive sentiment to accumulate and spread [15][19]. Potential Drivers from the Manganese Ore Sector - Historically, manganese - silicon market drivers mainly come from the supply side or cost - push factors such as environmental inspections, power shortages, and manganese ore issues. However, due to "dual - carbon" reforms and the substitution of thermal power by solar and wind power, the likelihood of environmental inspections or power shortages driving the market is low. - Since this year, although Australian ore shipments have become more regular, port manganese ore inventories have remained at significantly low levels compared to the same period in the past six years, resulting in relatively resilient manganese ore prices and providing a basis for a manganese ore - related narrative. But for a significant upward trend in manganese - silicon, an "unexpected event" in manganese ore supply from major importing countries is needed, and the market is "waiting for the wind" [22][30].