医药板块 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报业绩总结：创新药 高景气，多个细分板块或迎来拐点 20250508 摘要 • 2025 年 Q1 医药行业整体归母净利润下滑，但创新药、CXO（康德带 动）、医疗耗材及医院相关业务表现突出，国泰海通重点推荐创新药、 CXO、器械国产替代及部分消费医疗领域公司，维持恒瑞医药等增持评级， 并推荐药明生物和康德等 CXO 公司。 • 2025 年上半年上游产业受国产替代趋势驱动，百普赛斯和纳微等公司经 营出现拐点。自主可控政策、关税及国产性能提升推动品牌力和高性能公 司提高市场份额，稳定价格与毛利率，科思创、阿拉丁等企业值得关注。 • 疫苗板块受反腐压力及消费降级影响承压，智飞生物及万泰生物业绩增速 放缓，需关注应收账款问题。未来增长依赖创新品种如带状疱疹疫苗，以 及中国儒意出海机会。生物制品行业预计下半年业绩回升，龙头公司量价 逻辑依然有效，博雅收购天坛等寡头集中趋势明显。 • 中药板块受反腐影响严重，院内企业业绩下滑，但阿胶、明锐制药和白云 山保持增长。2025 年预计稳定增长，关注零售药店龙头及国企改革相关 企业如太极集团、昆药集团和东阿阿胶，中药材成本回落亦有助 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [49]. Core Views - The chemical agents and blood products sectors are expected to perform outstandingly in 2024, with positive revenue and profit growth reported in the CXO and medical services (hospitals) sectors for Q1 2025 [4][5]. - The biopharmaceutical industry is anticipated to outperform the market overall [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of April 30, 2025, 467 A-share biopharmaceutical companies reported their 2024 annual and Q1 2025 results. In 2024, 28 companies had revenue growth exceeding 30%, while 50 companies exceeded 20%, and 113 companies exceeded 10%. Approximately 220 companies reported positive revenue growth, while 246 experienced negative growth. On the profit side, 102 companies had profit growth over 30%, 132 over 20%, and 172 over 10%, with 218 maintaining positive profit growth and 249 facing negative growth [4]. - In Q1 2025, 24 companies reported revenue growth over 30%, 52 over 20%, and 109 over 10%, with 214 maintaining positive revenue growth and 251 reporting negative growth. For profits, 100 companies had growth over 30%, 120 over 20%, and 159 over 10%, with 220 maintaining positive profit growth and 240 facing negative growth [4]. Investment Strategies - Focus on "innovation," "going global," "equipment upgrades," and "consumption recovery." - **Innovation**: Invest in globally competitive innovative drugs and categories with significant market potential. Recommended companies include BeiGene, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, and others [7]. - **Going Global**: Explore overseas markets for long-term opportunities, with companies like Mindray Medical and others highlighted [7]. - **Equipment Upgrades**: Expect support for medical equipment updates from central and local government financing, with companies like Mindray Medical and others recommended [7]. - **Consumption Recovery**: Anticipate recovery in quality sectors like ophthalmology and medical aesthetics, with companies such as Puri Eye Hospital and others suggested [7]. Key Companies to Watch - **Nocare Biopharma**: Expected to achieve over 1 billion yuan in revenue from its core product, with a 49% year-on-year sales increase. The company reported a gross margin of 86.3% and a significant reduction in losses [8]. - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical**: Strong fundamentals with core products maintaining growth, and a robust pipeline expected to yield multiple approvals from 2025 to 2027 [11]. - **China Biopharmaceutical**: Rapid revenue growth with an increasing share of innovative products, and a strong pipeline in oncology [13]. - **Aibo Medical**: Anticipated growth in high-end artificial lenses and recovery in consumption due to aging trends [23]. Industry News Highlights - BeiGene's Sonrotoclax NDA application has been accepted for review, indicating potential market entry for a new treatment for CLL/SLL [30]. - Novartis' Pluvicto has received acceptance for a new indication in China, expanding its market potential [31]. - The partnership between Fuhong Hanlin and Sandoz for HLX13 indicates a significant milestone in the commercialization of biosimilars [33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The chemical agents and blood products sectors showed outstanding performance in 2024, while the CXO and medical services (hospitals) sectors reported positive growth in both revenue and profit for Q1 2025 [4][5]. - As of April 30, 2025, among 467 selected A-share biopharmaceutical companies, 28 companies reported revenue growth exceeding 30% for 2024, while 50 companies had growth over 20% [4]. - In Q1 2025, 24 companies achieved revenue growth greater than 30%, and 100 companies reported profit growth exceeding 30% [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In 2024, the chemical agents and blood products sectors maintained positive growth in both revenue and profit [5]. - For Q1 2025, the CXO and medical services sectors also reported positive growth in revenue and profit [5]. Investment Strategy - Focus on "innovation," "going global," "equipment upgrades," and "consumption recovery" as key investment themes [7]. - Recommended companies for "innovation" include BeiGene, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, and others [7]. - For "going global," companies like Mindray Medical and Sinopharm are highlighted [7]. - In "equipment upgrades," companies such as Mindray Medical and Aohua Medical are suggested [7]. - Under "consumption recovery," companies like Puri Eye Hospital and Tongce Medical are noted [7]. Key Companies to Watch - **Nocera Health**: Achieved revenue of 1.009 billion yuan in 2024, with a 49% year-on-year increase in sales of its core product, Obinutuzumab [8]. - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical**: Maintained a stable performance with core products continuing to grow [11]. - **China Biopharmaceutical**: Rapid revenue growth with an increasing proportion of innovative products expected to accelerate profit growth [13]. - **Aibao Medical**: The launch of its self-developed ICL lens is expected to drive significant revenue growth [23]. Industry News Highlights - BeiGene's Sonrotoclax new drug application has been accepted for review [30]. - Novartis' Lutetium-177 injection has been accepted for a new indication in China [31]. - Fuhong Hanlin signed a licensing agreement with Sandoz for HLX13 [33]. - BeiGene won a patent dispute, strengthening its market position for its BTK inhibitor [34].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by strong domestic and foreign demand, with the innovative drug segment performing particularly well. The recovery of medical insurance policies and limited impact from Sino-US trade tensions have contributed to this positive trend. Institutional holdings have notably increased [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Innovative Drugs**: The innovative drug sector is recommended for overweight allocation due to strong demand and supply dynamics. Companies in this segment have shown better-than-expected performance, supported by favorable policy changes [1][10]. - **Medical Devices**: The electrophysiology and orthopedic consumables sectors are highlighted as areas of strong performance. Orthopedic consumables benefit from a low base and domestic substitution, while electrophysiology maintains stable growth [1][6]. - **CXO Sector**: The CXO sector has shown robust performance, with companies like Kangde Biological and LianTuo Biological reporting impressive results. The first quarter results indicate a strong growth momentum, making this sector a viable investment option [1][7]. - **Consumer Healthcare**: Overall performance in consumer healthcare is lukewarm, but leading companies like Aier Eye Hospital and JD Health have exceeded expectations, demonstrating their ability to gain market share amid a consumption downturn [1][8]. - **Upstream Supply Chain**: While overall performance in the upstream supply chain is not as strong as in innovative drugs, companies like Baipusais and Nawei Technology have shown significant competitive advantages, increasing their market share during the industry downturn [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Performance in April 2025**: The pharmaceutical sector had a lackluster performance in April, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.7% and the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index down 2.1%. Notable gainers included Yipin Hong and Yong'an Pharmaceutical, both up 56% [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy suggests overweighting innovative drugs and gradually increasing allocation to reasonably valued CXO companies. Individual stock selection is recommended for consumer and upstream supply chain investments [1][10][12]. - **Monthly Portfolio Changes**: The May 2025 portfolio includes large-cap pharmaceutical stocks such as Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and BeiDa Pharmaceutical, reflecting positive changes in their fundamentals and strong R&D capabilities [2][13]. - **Rationale for Large-Cap Stocks**: The focus has shifted to larger companies due to their improved fundamentals and strong R&D capabilities, as smaller companies have already seen significant price increases [14]. - **Specific Company Recommendations**: - **Heng Rui Pharmaceutical**: Leading in R&D among traditional large enterprises, with over 100 projects in development [15]. - **Hua Dong Pharmaceutical**: Valued at approximately 16 times earnings, with a promising transition and sales growth expected [16]. - **BeiDa Pharmaceutical**: Expected to adopt more collaborative R&D approaches, making it a valuable investment at current valuations [17]. - **Xinda**: Anticipated revenue growth from 1.4 billion to 2.4 billion, with a favorable outlook due to policy improvements [18]. - **Kelong Biotechnology**: Notable performance in clinical trials, making it a strong candidate for investment [19]. - **Xinda**: Projected revenue of 40 billion in Q1, with a strong annual forecast [20]. - **Rongchang Biological**: Long-term tracking with good overseas positioning [21]. - **CXO Companies**: Notable mentions include WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics, recognized for their solid fundamentals [22].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on recovery in 2024 after a challenging 2023 due to anti-corruption measures [6][19]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is projected to see a decline in sales revenue and net profit for 2024 compared to 2023, with total sales revenue growth at -0.46%, net profit at -6.73%, and non-recurring net profit at -11.97% [2][13]. - The fastest-growing segments in Q4 2024 are expected to be CXO, medical devices, and pharmaceutical distribution, while in Q1 2025, the growth leaders will shift to CXO, pharmacies, and pharmaceutical distribution [22]. - The report highlights a significant slowdown in growth for traditional Chinese medicine and a mixed performance across various sectors, with some showing resilience and others facing challenges [5][24]. Summary by Sector Pharmaceutical Industry - In 2024, the total revenue growth for 405 pharmaceutical companies is projected at -0.46%, with net profit declining by 6.73% [2][13]. - Q1 2025 shows a continued decline in revenue and net profit, indicating ongoing challenges [13]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - For 62 listed companies in traditional Chinese medicine, revenue and net profit are expected to decline by -3.9% and -14.6% respectively in 2024, with further declines in Q1 2025 [24][32]. Chemical Preparations - The 96 chemical preparation companies are expected to see revenue growth of 1.2% and net profit growth of 15.7% in 2024, with a slight slowdown in Q1 2025 [2][5]. Research Services - The 16 research service companies are projected to experience a revenue increase of 6.56% in 2024, despite a significant drop in net profit [2][5]. Medical Services - The 11 medical service companies are expected to face revenue growth of 1.4% in 2024, with a notable recovery in Q1 2025 [2][5]. Medical Devices - The 97 medical device companies are projected to see a slight revenue increase of 1.16% in 2024, with a decline in net profit [2][5]. Biopharmaceuticals - The 54 biopharmaceutical companies are expected to see a revenue decline of -6.9% in 2024, with a significant drop in Q1 2025 [3][5]. CXO - The 22 CXO companies are projected to experience a revenue decline of -4.14% in 2024, but a recovery is anticipated in Q1 2025 with a revenue increase of 13.1% [3][5]. Raw Materials - The 50 raw material companies are expected to see a slight revenue increase of 2.48% in 2024, with a recovery trend starting in Q1 2025 [3][5]. Pharmacies - The 7 pharmacy companies are projected to see revenue growth of 4.9% in 2024, but face challenges in Q1 2025 [2][5]. Pharmaceutical Distribution - The 22 pharmaceutical distribution companies are expected to see a slight revenue increase of 0.27% in 2024, with ongoing challenges in Q1 2025 [2][5].

Key Points Summary Group 1: Performance Verification Key Points - The overall A-share non-financial profit showed a seasonal weakness in Q4 2024 but a strong recovery in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 6.3% in Q1 2025 compared to a -55% decline in Q4 2024, indicating a historical high recovery level [1][5][4] - The supply-demand dynamics remain weak, with a significant decline in fixed asset turnover rates, leading to reduced profitability. The capital expenditure and construction projects in the midstream manufacturing sector have reached historical lows, indicating a clear downward trend in midstream manufacturing supply [1][10][4] - The performance pressure on the export chain is yet to manifest, while the profitability of companies involved in overseas operations has outperformed that of the export chain, suggesting a deepening divergence due to tariff impacts starting from Q2 2025 [1][18][20] Group 2: Industry Trends and Opportunities - Key thriving industries are concentrated in consumption (benefiting from the old-for-new policy for durable goods and some new consumption), pharmaceuticals (CXO, innovative drugs), and AI computing (improved orders for chips, optical modules, servers, and IDC) [1][22][27] - After the disclosure of Q1 2025 reports, the industries with upward revisions in profit expectations include electronics, computers, retail, steel, and media [1][25][35] - The current stage favors technology investment opportunities, particularly in domestic AI computing and robotics, which are expected to show higher short-term thematic elasticity compared to consumption sectors [1][39][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the pharmaceutical industry in 2025, suggesting a potential for diverse investment opportunities as the sector's valuation is currently low [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience growth driven by macroeconomic factors and the performance of major products [9]. - The report emphasizes a shift from quantity to quality in the innovative drug sector, highlighting the importance of product differentiation and internationalization [9]. - The medical device sector is witnessing a recovery in bidding volumes and ongoing equipment upgrades, with specific attention on companies like Mindray and Yuyue [9]. - The report identifies a potential rebound in the CXO and life sciences services sector, with expectations of high profit elasticity as companies enter a return-on-investment phase [9]. - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is projected to benefit from policy advantages and market concentration, with specific companies recommended for investment [11]. Summary by Sections Overall Pharmaceutical Industry - In 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's comparable company revenue decreased by 0.9%, with a net profit decline of 8.5% [16]. - The medical device sector showed the highest revenue growth among sub-sectors, while traditional Chinese medicine faced the most significant revenue decline [16]. Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 565.3 billion, a 34.1% increase from the previous year, with several companies achieving profitability for the first time [18][19]. - The report highlights the increasing number of IND and NDA approvals for domestic innovative drugs, indicating a growing presence in international markets [19]. Medical Devices - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, with a focus on imaging equipment and home medical devices [9]. - The report notes that the orthopedic and neurosurgery fields are seeing improved growth post-collection, with significant attention on companies like Aikang and Weili [9]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report anticipates a market rebound for essential medicines, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their unique product offerings and market positioning [11]. Retail and Distribution - The report expresses confidence in the retail pharmacy sector, driven by prescription outflow and an improving competitive landscape [11]. Medical Services - The report suggests that the medical services sector will benefit from anti-corruption measures and the expansion of commercial insurance, enhancing the competitiveness of private healthcare providers [11]. Blood Products - The blood products sector is expected to see growth due to relaxed approval processes and increased demand post-pandemic, with companies like Tiantan Biological and Boya Biological highlighted for their potential [11].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company's performance exceeded expectations with significant profit margin improvements, driven by the CRDMO service model and continuous capacity ramp-up, alongside ongoing optimization of production processes and efficiency [1][9]. Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.655 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.96% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.672 billion yuan, up 89.06% year-on-year [2]. - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit was 2.68 billion yuan, reflecting a 40.0% increase [2]. Order Growth and Business Segments - As of March 2025, the company had a strong order backlog of 52.33 billion yuan, a 47.1% year-on-year increase, indicating robust demand for high-quality services [3]. - Revenue from U.S. clients was 6.38 billion yuan, up 28.4% year-on-year, while European clients contributed 1.3 billion yuan, a 26.2% increase [3]. Chemical Business Performance - The chemical business generated revenue of 7.39 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 32.9% increase, driven by growth in D&M and TIDES business segments [4]. - The adjusted non-IFRS gross margin for the chemical business was 47.5%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points [4]. New Molecule Development - The company successfully synthesized and delivered over 460,000 new compounds in the past 12 months, a 6% increase [5]. - The D&M business segment reported revenue of 3.85 billion yuan, a 13.8% year-on-year increase [5]. Testing and Biological Services - Testing business revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, a 4.0% decline, primarily due to price adjustments in the domestic market [6]. - The biological business generated revenue of 610 million yuan, an 8.2% increase, contributing to the overall CRDMO business model [7]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 42.26%, an increase of 4.13 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to capacity release and efficiency improvements [8]. - Operating cash flow was 3.195 billion yuan, a 41.57% increase, driven by profit growth [8]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in D&M and TIDES business segments, supported by the CRDMO service model and increasing global drug development demand [9]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 42.609 billion yuan, 48.518 billion yuan, and 55.038 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 13.9%, and 13.4% [10].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on May 2, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.74% to close at 22,504.68 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.08%, and the National Enterprises Index up by 1.92% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a significant increase, with Xiaomi Group rising over 6%, Alibaba and JD Group up more than 3%, and Kuaishou, Lenovo Group, Bilibili, and Tencent Holdings each gaining over 2% [2][3]. - New energy vehicle companies collectively surged, with Li Auto's stock increasing by over 7% [3]. - CXO concept stocks experienced a substantial rise, with WuXi AppTec gaining over 7% [3]. - New tea beverage stocks also performed well, with Nayuki's Tea rising by over 8% [3]. Company Updates - Xpeng Motors reported a year-on-year increase of 273% in new car deliveries for April, while Li Auto's new car deliveries grew by 31.6% [4]. - Xiaomi's automotive division delivered over 28,000 vehicles in April, with the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra model starting to be delivered [4]. Currency and Trade Insights - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate saw a significant increase, rising over 370 points to reach 7.24, the highest level since April 4 [4]. - China is currently evaluating trade negotiations with the United States, with indications of a marginal easing in trade tensions, leading to a release of market bullish sentiment [6]. Future Market Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests that investor risk appetite is gradually recovering, supported by positive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which may lead to stable earnings growth in the Hong Kong stock market [6]. - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that under increasing external pressures, domestic demand-related sectors may benefit from rising consumer policy expectations, predicting a short-term consolidation in the Hong Kong market with a gradual shift towards technology growth style investments [6].

金十数据5月2日讯，港股高开高走，截至收盘，恒生指数涨1.74%，恒生科技指数涨3.08%，国企指数 涨1.92%。盘面上，科网股全线上涨，小米集团(01810.HK)涨超6%，阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、京东 (09618.HK)涨超3%，快手(01024.HK)、联想集团(00992.HK)、哔哩哔哩(09626.HK)、腾讯控股 (00700.HK)涨超2%；汽车股集体走高，零跑汽车(09863.HK)涨超7%；CXO概念股整体大涨，药明涨超 7%；新茶饮股集体上行，奈雪的茶(02150.HK)涨超8%。 港股收评：恒生指数涨1.74% 恒生科技指数涨3.08% ...