2026 年 2 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】涨价开始向下游传导——2026 年 1 月价格数据点评 1 月受春节错月、鲜菜价格超季节性下跌影响，CPI 同比涨幅明显回落，但上行趋势 依然延续。一是，原材料涨价对下游耐用消费品传导持续；二是，中央一号文件指出 "强化生猪产能综合调控"，或加快生猪去产能进程，预计下半年猪价有望温和改善。 PPI 方面，环比涨幅明显加快，涨价领域进一步扩散，与输入性影响扩大以及国内"反 内卷"政策深化有关，预计二季度 PPI 同比有望回正。 【宏观】如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告——2025Q4 货币政策执行报告 学习体会 2025Q4 货政报告中，央行肯定了国内经济工作成果和物价回升的积极变化，对 2026 年国内经济增长较为乐观。货币政策基调不变，提出要稳定短端利率，可能顺应推出 相应政策工具；降息更需要"择时"，但应关注汇率持续升值对货币政策调节的影响； 重申货币政策和财政政策的协同配合，关注到"大资管"行业内部资金流动产生的摩 擦，流动性总体无忧，利好国内股债市场。风险提示：货币宽松力度不及预期，财政 政策落地进度不及预期 ...

Core Insights - As of February 11, the latest financing balance in the market is 26,278.24 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 159.17 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Three industries saw an increase in financing balance, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading with an increase of 3.44 million yuan [1] - A total of 28 industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with the electronics, electric power equipment, and communication sectors showing the largest declines of 25.01 billion yuan, 23.67 billion yuan, and 12.84 billion yuan respectively [1][2] Industry Summary - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Latest financing balance is 1,475.99 billion yuan, with an increase of 3.44 million yuan and a growth rate of 0.23% [1] - **Social Services**: Latest financing balance is 133.33 billion yuan, with an increase of 966.57 million yuan and a growth rate of 0.73% [1] - **Construction Materials**: Latest financing balance is 139.24 billion yuan, with an increase of 527.69 million yuan and a growth rate of 0.38% [1] - **Real Estate**: Latest financing balance is 348.59 billion yuan, with a decrease of 9.26 billion yuan and a decline rate of 2.59% [1] - **Petroleum and Petrochemicals**: Latest financing balance is 223.72 billion yuan, with a decrease of 3.35 billion yuan and a decline rate of 1.48% [1] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: Latest financing balance is 143.61 billion yuan, with a decrease of 1.78 billion yuan and a decline rate of 1.22% [1] - **Electronics**: Latest financing balance is 3,892.79 billion yuan, with a decrease of 25.01 billion yuan and a decline rate of 0.64% [2] - **Electric Power Equipment**: Latest financing balance is 2,313.03 billion yuan, with a decrease of 23.67 billion yuan and a decline rate of 1.01% [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.2% at 27,210.56 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.47% at 5,474.25 points, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.19% at 9,250.27 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly opened lower, with Alibaba down 1.37%, Tencent down 2.01%, and Meituan down 2.48%, while AI application stocks showed strength, with Zhihui up 8.77% and MINIMAX-WP up 5.65% [1] Company Performance - NetEase reported strong performance, with a net revenue of approximately 112.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.96%, and a net profit of approximately 33.76 billion yuan, up 13.68% [2] - NetEase Cloud Music saw a significant profit increase of 75.4%, with a revenue of 7.76 billion yuan and a profit of 2.75 billion yuan, confirming a turning point in performance [2] Industry Trends - The hard technology and manufacturing sectors showed signs of recovery, with Qiu Tai Technology reporting a 22.8% year-on-year increase in camera module sales and an 18.4% increase in fingerprint recognition module sales, driven by demand in IoT and smart automotive sectors [3] - The renewable energy sector also saw growth, with China Resources Power reporting a 28.4% year-on-year increase in electricity sales, and solar power sales soaring by 72.3% [3] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector experienced significant positive developments, with Rebio Biotech announcing a global exclusive licensing agreement worth up to 4.4 billion USD, leading to a substantial increase in stock price [4] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's product was included in a breakthrough therapy list, with projected global sales exceeding 6.5 billion USD in 2024 [4] Capital Market Activity - Industrial capital is actively engaging in buybacks to stabilize the market, with Geely Automobile repurchasing shares worth approximately 20.30 million HKD and other companies like Kingsoft and Bai Rong Cloud also participating in buybacks [5] - Huili Group is expected to see a profit increase of over 20 times in 2025, indicating a strong performance reversal [5] Institutional Insights - There is a divergence in institutional views regarding market fluctuations, with some suggesting that the recent pullback is a liquidity shock, while others believe that valuation recovery is nearly complete [6] - Specific sectors like AI computing and surgical robots are highlighted for potential growth, with expectations for high performance in 2025 and 2026 [6]

日经225指数首次涨破58000点。日本30年期、40年期国债收益率集体下行。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

中金研究 我们在 2024 年 1 月的报告《 从四维指数看行业景气度 》中，综合库存、需求、盈利、供给 4 个维度的指标，初步搭建了一个中观行业的打分卡框架。我 们结合当前宏观经济形势，对该框架做了优化调整并更新了最新情况。截至 2025 年三季报的数据显示，国防军工、汽车、有色金属等行业从供需格局 看得分较高，呈现更高的景气度。基于打分卡构建的行业指数组合，亦可实现一定的超额收益。 点击小程序查看报告原文 基于当前"供强需弱"的宏观背景和前述经济特征，我们对打分卡框架做了优化，提高了需求指标（营收增速）在打分卡中的权重，并增加了外需占比这一 考察维度，将打分卡拓展为5维数据。 具体而言，行业得分是库存水平（库存增速历史分位数，权重10%）、需求增长（营业收入TTM同比增速，权重 40%）、盈利能力（销售毛利率TTM历史分位数，权重20%）、供给扩张（资本开支-折旧摊销的3年滚动之和占固定资产+在建工程+无形资产的比重，权 重20%）、外需占比（海外业务收入TTM占营业收入比重，权重10%）5个维度得分的加权求和。5项得分数值在0-1之间，需求类指标数值越高（表明需 求越好）得分越高，供给类指标数值越低（表 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.09% to close at 4131.99, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% to 14160.93 [2] - The overall trading volume in the market was below 2 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of strong market momentum [4][6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Construction Materials (3.29%), Nonferrous Metals (2.39%), and Oil & Petrochemicals (2.18%) [3] - Conversely, the sectors that underperformed were Communication (-2.17%), Media (-1.99%), and Social Services (-1.74%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation with potential short-term adjustments as investor sentiment becomes cautious ahead of the Spring Festival [6] - Long-term, the regulatory environment is signaling a focus on market normalization and risk prevention, suggesting a shift towards a more balanced market structure [6] - There is an emphasis on dividend assets for long-term positioning, along with opportunities in cyclical industries and undervalued traditional consumer sectors [6] Economic Indicators - Consumer demand is recovering, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing pressures in the industrial sector [5] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support liquidity and financing conditions [5]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 12 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 02 月 12 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：2 月 11 日上证指数上涨 0.09%，沪深 300 下跌 0.22%，科创 50 下跌 1.11%，中证 1000 下跌 0.13%，创业 板指下跌 1.08%，恒生指数上涨 0.31%。 ❑ 行业：2 月 11 日表现最好的行业分别是建筑材料（+3.29%)、有色金属（+2.39%)、石油石化（+2.18%)、钢铁 （+1.68%)、煤炭（+1.4%)，表现最差的行业分别是通信（-2.17%)、传媒（-1.99%)、社会服务（-1.74%)、电子 （-1.09%)、国防军工（-0.91%)。 ❑ 资金：2 月 11 日全 A 总成交额为 20010.43 亿元，南下资金净流入 48.16 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/黄宇宸】策略专题研究：太空光伏+钙钛矿：开启能源新纪元，掘金万亿级" ...

Group 1 - The resource sector has strengthened again, with multiple rare metal-themed ETFs rising over 3%, and mining, non-ferrous, gold, rare earth, and chemical ETFs generally increasing over 2% [1] - After significant gains, the film, media, and online consumption ETFs experienced a collective pullback, with the film ETF (159855) dropping nearly 6% [1] - AI application-related sectors saw a surge, with over 1.3 billion yuan net inflow into ETFs tracking the film and media indices on February 10 [1] Group 2 - Huatai Fund suggests gradually shifting focus to post-holiday market trends, emphasizing three main lines: AI hardware driven by overseas influences, high-end manufacturing in new energy and innovative pharmaceuticals, and domestic price increase chains in chemicals, building materials, and steel [2] - Fuguo Fund recommends focusing on sectors with high elasticity and growth potential, such as electronics, computers, and communications, which are sensitive to liquidity improvements and rising risk appetite [2]

2025年，沪市公司经营韧性与结构亮点进一步显现，在"质"与"量"的双重维度上，助力中国经济破浪前 行。数据显示，截至2月9日，271家沪市主板公司发布2025年业绩预告，其中168家预增、85家预计扭 亏。391家科创板公司以业绩预告或快报形式披露了2025年业绩情况，近六成公司预计净利润实现同比 增长，其中39家预计净利润同比倍增、51家预计扭亏为盈。 一幅稳增长、优结构的沪市公司全年发展图景徐徐展开。记者关注到，业绩突出的公司主要集中在有色 金属、电子等行业。有色金属受产品价格与产销量共同驱动，电子行业在AI需求带动下维持较快增 长。与此同时，一批龙头公司预计盈利规模仍处于高位，持续发挥沪市主板"压舱石"作用。 有色金属行业发展尽显韧性 2025年，在全球地缘政治摩擦多发和主要经济体降息预期的推动下，黄金的避险与货币属性愈加显现， 黄金价格屡创新高，直接增厚了拥有巨量黄金储备企业的利润。 有色行业规模以上企业工业增加值增长6.9%，高于全国规上工业增加值增速1.0个百分点，十种有色金 属产量首次突破8000万吨大关。规模以上企业实现利润总额5284.5亿元，同比增长25.6%，创下历史新 高。下游新兴产 ...

上海证券报记者从中国证监会有关部门获悉，A股上市公司春节前分红金额再创新高。数据显示，2025 年12月至2026年1月底，沪深北交易所共有235家上市公司实施春节前分红，金额合计3488亿元，已超过 2025年春节前3446亿元的分红总额。 业内专家在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，分红时点整体前移，体现出公司回馈投资者"又好又快"， 这有利于投资者提前收息，在享受货币时间价值的同时更好规划新年现金流。 在田利辉看来，春节前大规模分红释放三重信号：一是实力信号，企业现金流健康、盈利韧性增强，是 经济复苏的微观印证；二是制度信号，传递稳增长信心，提振市场预期；三是生态信号，引导长期资金 入市，优化资本结构。整体看，大规模分红释放出强化价值投资的信号，有利于营造良好的市场生态。 （文章来源：上海证券报） 从行业来看，金融和大消费行业继续成为春节前分红主力。数据显示，上市银行春节前分红2434亿元， 占比近七成。其中，招商银行、兴业银行首次加入春节前分红大军，大手笔派发共375亿元"红包"。上 市险企合计分红54亿元，11家上市券商合计分红55亿元。茅台、五粮液、海天味业等大消费龙头合计分 红448亿元。此外，部分 ...