这种"赚了指数不赚钱"的窘境，让不少股民直呼"憋屈"：明明看着红彤彤的大盘喜笑颜开，打开自己的 持仓却是一片绿意盎然。这种结构性分化，不仅考验投资者的选股眼光，更凸显当前市场资金高度聚焦 核心资产的现实。在流动性有限、热点轮动加速的背景下，盲目追高或死守弱势股，恐怕难有胜算。眼 下，与其抱怨行情"虚胖"，不如冷静审视持仓结构，顺势而为，方能在年末冲刺中真正分得一杯羹。 先来看下对下一个交易日有预判作用的"神器"——中信期货在股指期货主连上的增减持情况。它在沪深 300股指期货上多单方面减仓188手，空单方面减仓777手，给出了"偏多"的信号——预判正确。 | | | 多处理合和序 | | | | 空外流合排序 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排序 | 机构名称 | 多单量 | 增减 | 排序 | 机构名称 | 空美重 | 增减 | | 1 | 中信期货 | 8982 | -188 | 1 | 国泰君安 | 8471 | -347 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 8958 | -228 | 2 | 中信期货 | 7865 | -777 ...

注：数据来源Emmanuel Saez，UC Berkeley，David Jacks，Wind，统计区间1925-1991。 沃尔克之后，货币政策开始变得无所不能，此后的美国内生性的经济危机仅发生过三次，相较于19世纪骤减。 但是用变色油墨与无酸纸真的可以对抗"剩余价值"的铁论么？美国政府债务就像里根标志性的微笑一样，以指数级的上扬动摇着全世界的信心。 以指数方程为例，随着自变量的逐步扩大，曲线的曲率将会逐步接近于无穷大。换句话说，如果当前美国政府沿用赤字财政思路，我们或许会见证"信用 货币的数量达到无穷大，而相对价值无穷趋近于零的经济学奇迹"。 1981年可以被看作是现代经济学的一个关键分水岭。 那一年新自由主义卷土，现代货币理论（MMT）开始使用"信贷创造货币"的话语权，构建以"美国消费-全球供给"的新全球化格局。 注：数据来源Wind，统计区间1952/03-2025/06。 在21世纪前四分之一叶的最后一个月，现货期货黄金、银、铜屡次刷新历史新高，这无疑是金融市场发出的显著信号。 对于当前投资者们来说，与其猜测"债务奇点"到来，莫若关心生产关系本身。 关注大类资源品：当前正当时！ 从多方角度判断，各 ...

高精度文物数字孪生工程、低成本北斗多信息水位监测系统、激光等离子体根管治疗系统……12月26 日，"京彩未来·创新有我"北京高校科协联盟第二届创新场景挑战赛落下帷幕。历经三个月激烈角逐， 60项科研"金点子"从未来信息、未来健康、未来制造、未来能源、未来材料、创意6个专业赛道中脱颖 而出，集中亮相展示。 本届挑战赛汇集了来自30家高校、科研院所的近400项创新成果。评审环节中，学术类、产业类、投资 类专家组成专业评审团，在各赛道分别评选出10项紧扣产业需求、彰显技术硬实力的优秀成果。 在未来制造赛道成果展示区，自动运行中的"网算控一体化智能开放工控系统"吸引了众人的目光。"过 去，网络、计算与控制三大要素在工业控制中相互独立，而我们的系统集成了多种先进技术，实现设 备、系统、数据之间的互联互通。"北京科技大学博士生董芃介绍，该系统融合大模型技术构建了工控 智能体，可以为工业生产注入智能化、网络化和协同化的新能力。 转自：北京日报客户端 在未来信息赛道，中国矿业大学（北京）团队带来的"北斗智测——低成本北斗多信息水位监测系统"在 水文监测领域具有巨大潜力。团队自主研发了低成本北斗/全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）硬 ...

Core Insights - Google ranks first, followed by Microsoft and Apple in the 2025 World Brand 500 list, with the United States leading with 184 brands, while China surpasses Japan with 50 brands, securing the third position globally [3][6]. Group 1: Brand Rankings - Google, Microsoft, and Apple are the top three brands in the 2025 World Brand 500 list [3][12]. - The United States has the highest representation with 184 brands, followed by France with 51, China with 50, Japan with 40, and the United Kingdom with 34 [6][12]. Group 2: Industry Representation - The automotive and parts industry leads with 33 brands, followed by the energy and food & beverage industries, each with 30 brands [4][5]. - The banking sector has 29 brands, while retail and computer & communications sectors each have 27 brands represented [4][5]. Group 3: Notable Chinese Brands - Key Chinese brands in the list include State Grid, Tencent, Haier, and ICBC, among others [7][8][9]. - The presence of Chinese brands has increased, with 50 brands listed, surpassing Japan's 40 brands [3][6]. Group 4: Impact of AI - The rise of generative AI is influencing brand creativity and expression, presenting both opportunities and challenges in the branding landscape [3][4].

Core Insights - The transformation in Hainan is not just about luxury shopping but represents a significant change in the wealth management strategy for billions of people, driven by China's vast foreign exchange reserves and the risks associated with holding US Treasury bonds [1][3] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The upcoming full closure operation in Hainan on December 18, 2025, is a strategic move aimed at creating a secure channel for national wealth, likened to a "Noah's Ark" to withstand financial storms [3] - Hainan's policy of "one line open, two lines controlled" allows for a low-tax environment to attract foreign investment while maintaining a firewall against potential financial risks from the mainland [5] Group 2: Investment and Business Environment - The low-tax environment in Hainan is a key factor attracting global companies, with notable firms like Siemens Energy and Longi Green Energy establishing operations there, indicating the strategic potential of the region [5] - The establishment of the EF account system in Hainan has facilitated over 295 billion yuan in transactions since its launch in May 2024, indicating a shift in the use of the renminbi from a transaction currency to an asset currency [6] Group 3: Financial Network and Collaboration - Hainan's initiatives are part of a broader strategy involving discussions with oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia to use the renminbi for oil settlements, reflecting a move towards a more diversified global financial network [6] - The collaboration between Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Hainan represents a coordinated effort to enhance China's financial resilience, with each city playing a distinct role in this strategy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the potential for gold prices to surge due to a crisis of trust in the US dollar and treasury system, with predictions of gold reaching nearly $2000 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a significant shift in global capital dynamics [1][11][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The investment strategy for 2026 is suggested to be based on a "dumbbell strategy," focusing on dividend stocks on one end and investments that bet on national fortunes and growth on the other [6][83][84]. - Specific investment directions include AI edge applications, gold and non-ferrous metals, and opportunities in energy and technology sectors, particularly in response to US-China competition [7][85][68]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Dynamics - The current economic landscape is characterized by a G2 competition narrative, with the US heavily investing in AI as a means to secure its economic future, which has led to a significant increase in the market capitalization of AI-related companies [13][14][96]. - The US AI sector faces challenges in forming a complete economic loop, as it lacks a robust manufacturing base to support the backend of AI applications, which may hinder its long-term success [3][120][121]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - There is a potential scenario where a collapse of the dollar could trigger an unprecedented rise in gold prices, with the possibility of a significant economic shift favoring China as it implements large-scale domestic policies akin to the Marshall Plan [4][82][114][115]. - The discussion emphasizes that the future of AI and its economic implications may ultimately rest with China, which possesses the necessary manufacturing capabilities and ecosystem to create a complete economic loop [38][122][128].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 2025年，大宗商品市场整体表现强劲（以彭博大宗商品指数BCOM为例，其总回报达15%）。这主要得益于工业金属（特别是贵金属）的出色表 现——这类资产往往受益于美联储降息预期，从而抵消了能源板块的小幅负回报。 在我们的周期性宏观基准情景中，2026年全球经济将保持稳健增长，同时美联储预计降息50个基点，这将继续为大宗商品提供支撑。但展望未 来， 我们认为两大结构性趋势将主导商品市场的走向：整体指数回报可能趋于温和，但不同品种间的表现将显著分化，从而孕育丰富的相对价 值机会。 其一，在宏观层面，大宗商品仍将处于中美地缘政治博弈与科技（尤其是人工智能）竞争的核心。 其二，在微观层面，自2025年开启的两轮能源供应浪潮，将深刻影响我们的能源判断。其中石油供应浪潮预计在2026年见顶，而液化天然气 （LNG）的供应扩张则更为持久——预计2025至2030年间，全球LNG出口量将激增50%以上。 中美地缘政治权力与AI竞赛 文 | 高盛 来源 | 相信价格研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025年，大宗商品市场在贵金属的耀眼涨势与能源市场的黯淡表现中拉锯前行，为投资者带来了显 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].

国内心局 2025 年 12 月 26 日 开局之年, 地方如何"因地制宜" ? 部委与地方学习中央经济工作会议精神解析 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释 放的增量信息与政策信号有何深意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体,突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后,中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方 向，密集开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消 带结构演变等,财税部门聚焦财力保障,经济大省侧重开放布局,边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻 性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"， 与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化,坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。其指出"我国 正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦 消费类基建,并提出"靠前 ...

Core Insights - The national production material market prices remained stable from December 15 to 21, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Fuel Prices - Wholesale prices for refined oil experienced slight declines, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Coal Prices - Coal prices saw minor reductions, with coking coal, anthracite, and thermal coal priced at 1055 yuan, 1159 yuan, and 781 yuan per ton, reflecting decreases of 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - Prices for non-ferrous metals predominantly declined, with aluminum and copper decreasing by 0.4% and 0.1%, while zinc saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3] Group 4: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices showed slight fluctuations, with compound fertilizer increasing by 0.2% and urea decreasing by 0.1% [4] - Steel prices remained largely unchanged, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip priced at 3358 yuan, 3547 yuan, and 3508 yuan per ton, all increasing by 0.1%, while ordinary plates, welded pipes, and channel steel decreased by 0.1% [4] Group 5: Basic Chemical Raw Materials - Basic chemical raw material prices experienced minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid and methanol increasing by 2.9% and 0.1%, while polypropylene and soda ash decreased by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively [4] Group 6: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively [5]