Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.72% to close at 3559.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.86% to 11007.49 points. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.87%, closing at 2296.88 points. Overall, 4002 stocks rose, 1291 fell, and 121 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 17000 billion yuan, an increase of 1289.37 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, comprehensive, computer, and home appliances experienced gains today. The leading sectors included construction materials, construction decoration, steel, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and coal [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included cement manufacturing, water conservancy and hydropower construction, major infrastructure projects in the west, excavators, robotics, rare earths, and various infrastructure-related sectors [2].

Group 1 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Interconnection Small Comprehensive Materials Index reported a value of 4406.56 points, showing a monthly increase of 7.39%, a three-month increase of 14.25%, and a year-to-date increase of 15.75% [1] - The index is categorized into 11 industries based on the classification standards of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Index Series, which includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Interconnection Small Comprehensive Index, and the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Comprehensive Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (1.53%), Zhaojin Mining Industry (1.28%), China Rare Earth (1.16%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of companies in the materials sector [1] Group 2 - The market share of the index's holdings shows that Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 49.61%, Shanghai Stock Exchange for 38.62%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 11.76% [2] - In terms of industry composition, non-ferrous metals represent 40.64%, chemicals 37.39%, non-metallic materials 9.51%, steel 8.03%, and paper and packaging 4.43% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, they are in a state of fluctuating decline, and a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended; for the black series, they are in a state of range consolidation, and a seller's option neutral combination strategy is suitable; for precious metals, gold is in a state of high - level consolidation and weak decline, and a spot hedging strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Copper (CU2509)**: The latest price is 79,140, up 810 with a gain of 1.03%. The trading volume is 5.48 million lots, an increase of 1.91 million lots, and the open interest is 14.18 million lots, an increase of 0.38 million lots [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: The latest price is 20,770, up 265 with a gain of 1.29%. The trading volume is 12.90 million lots, an increase of 2.69 million lots, and the open interest is 28.27 million lots, an increase of 1.41 million lots [3]. - **Other metals**: Similar data are provided for zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, gold, silver, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon iron, and glass [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Copper**: The volume PCR is 0.53, down 0.01, and the open interest PCR is 0.61, down 0.02 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The volume PCR is 0.70, down 0.32, and the open interest PCR is 0.93, up 0.01 [4]. - **Other metals**: Volume and open interest PCR data are also provided for other metals [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Copper**: The pressure point is 82,000, and the support point is 78,000 [5]. - **Aluminum**: The pressure point is 20,600, and the support point is 20,000 [5]. - **Other metals**: Pressure and support levels are provided for other metals [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Copper**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 10.53%, the weighted implied volatility is 14.68%, down 0.36% [6]. - **Aluminum**: The at - the - money implied volatility is 9.09%, the weighted implied volatility is 12.24%, up 0.92% [6]. - **Other metals**: Implied volatility data are provided for other metals [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Use a bullish option bull spread strategy, a short - position call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Adopt a bullish option bull spread strategy, a short - position call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Build a short - position call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Use a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build a short - position call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Adopt a neutral short - volatility option seller's combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Use a bullish option bull spread strategy, a short - position call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - covered call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bullish option bull spread strategy, a short - position call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: Build a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon [15]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Use a bullish option bull spread strategy, a short - position call + put option combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [15]. - **Glass**: Adopt a bullish option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy [16].

展望后市，银河证券表示，A股运行中枢有望迈上新台阶。 从个股看，两市上涨4005家，下跌1291家，120家涨幅持平，共131股涨停，共6股跌停。 截至收盘，两市双双走高，沪指涨0.72%报3559.79点，成交7309亿元；深成指涨0.86%报11007.49点， 成交9588亿元。创业板指上涨0.87%，报2296.88点。 资金动向 今日市场放量走高，沪指走出4连阳，两市成交额突破1.7万亿创近期新高。值得关注的是，雅下水电概 念横空出世引爆市场。据券商中国报道，有分析人士认为，此举不仅带动水电板块，亦会带动西藏地区 的经济发展，并带动全国就业，与此同时，对有色、钢铁等行业也带来支撑。对于经济和市场情绪皆构 成利好。 具体到盘面上，受到相关消息提振，雅下水电概念引爆市场，民爆、工程机械、水利、水泥建材、新型 城镇化、电网设备、西藏等相关板块暴涨，中国电建、中国能建两大龙头股罕见双双"一字"涨停，西藏 天路等几十股涨停；机器人概念反复活跃，人气股上纬新材斩获9连板，刷新A股"20cm"连板纪录，区 间累计涨逾416%；此外，有色金属、钢铁、军工、创新药等板块均有所表现。下跌方面，银行、保险 等大金融板块继 ...

分析师王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 --"工信部十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台"对大宗商品的影响 发布时间：2025 年 7 月 21 日 事件： 7 月 18 日，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下一步，将 实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着 力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。支持重点工业大省发 挥"挑大梁"作用，包括落实支持政策、培育新增长点、促进产业转型、提高运行质效、应 对外部风险等方面，加大工作力度，夯实工业经济稳定运行基础。此外，雅鲁藏布江下游水 电工程开工仪式 7 月 19 日上午在西藏自治区林芝市举行，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总 理李强出席开工仪式，并宣布工程正式开工。雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程总投资达 1.2 万亿元 人民币，规划建设 5 座梯级电站，总装机容量高达 6000 万千瓦（相当于 3 个三峡电站）， 预计年发电量约 3000 亿千瓦时，足以满足 3 亿人的年用电需求。雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程 的开工，与工信部十大行业稳增长方案的即将出台，二者共振一起强化了反内 ...

1. Hot News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and three other departments have deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, including product price monitoring, product consistency supervision, and shortening the payment period for suppliers. The central fourth steering group also called for regulating the industry's competition order [2] - The Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xie Shaofeng, pointed out that a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials have been released. Plans for industries like machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, as well as an implementation plan for the digital transformation of the automobile industry, will be issued [2] - EU member states have officially approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on the largest refinery of a Russian oil company in India, banning activities related to the "Nord Stream" gas pipeline, and lowering the oil price cap to $47.6 [2] - The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi, Tibet. The project involves building 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will optimize the option settlement price business from July 22, using the SVI volatility model to calculate the settlement price [3] 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, PVC, crude oil, and hot - rolled coils are the sectors to focus on [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.91%, precious metals 28.64%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 12.63%, grains 1.26%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.79% [4] Commodity Sector Funds - The data shows the percentage changes in commodity sector funds, but specific changes for each sector are not clearly described [4] Commodity Futures Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data for each sector are not clearly described [6] 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% daily, 2.61% monthly, and 5.45% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.33% daily, 3.13% monthly, and 23.76% annually. Other indices such as the S&P 500, German DAX, etc., also have corresponding performance data [8] Fixed - income - 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.10% monthly, and 0.12% annually; 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.16% monthly, and 0.52% annually [8] Commodity - The CRB commodity index rose 0.62% daily, 2.97% monthly, and 3.17% annually; WTI crude oil fell 0.31% daily, rose 3.58% monthly, and fell 6.38% annually [8] Others - The US dollar index fell 0.18% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and fell 9.24% annually; the CBOE volatility index fell 0.67% daily, 1.91% monthly, and 5.42% annually [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][3][4] - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as international policies, economic data, supply and demand relationships, and seasonal patterns, and the trends of different products vary [15][16][20] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 09 contract down 1.98% and SC09 contract up 2.3%. After the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, oil prices first rose and then fell. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the oil price trend has shifted from strong to volatile [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expected increase in the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil producing areas is limited, and demand lacks drive. FU cracking continues to decline. LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than that of SC since mid - July, and its cracking has also declined [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, refinery production is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory has slightly increased, while factory inventory has decreased significantly. Overall, supply increase resilience needs to be observed, demand remains weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, with the BU price showing an upward trend [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists, and overseas prices continue to fluctuate weakly. Import costs have declined, but PDH margins remain stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is under pressure at the top. The market is in a summer off - season pattern, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The recent macro - sentiment is positive, and precious metals are relatively stable. Due to high uncertainty in US tariff policies, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio still has room to decline [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper rose close to $9,800, and SHFE copper's main contract shifted to 2509. The domestic copper industry's capacity regulation space is limited. The previous 2508 option portfolio expired this week [4] - **Aluminum**: Affected by the news of the upcoming ten - key - industry growth - stabilization plan, non - ferrous metals are generally strong. Aluminum ingot and billet inventory accumulation is not smooth, and SHFE aluminum may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: Black prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment has improved. The import window is closed, and the external market drives the internal market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and supply is expected to increase. The SHFE zinc term structure has flattened, and it is still considered a rebound - under - pressure situation [8] - **Lead**: Both domestic and foreign inventories have increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs. The price has declined. However, the cost support is strong. The price has stopped falling at 16,800 yuan/ton and may face resistance at the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. Technically, SHFE nickel still has room to rebound, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [10] - **Tin**: LME tin has been volatile, and SHFE tin is supported at 260,000 yuan. The main contract has shifted to 2509. Social inventory has increased. High - level short positions from the previous period are held [11] - **Other Metal - related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows SHFE aluminum and is in a strong - volatile state, but trading is inactive. Despite weak industrial demand, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it may be more resilient than aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: On Friday night, alumina prices rose sharply. Supply - side policy expectations have strengthened, but domestic operating capacity has reached a historical high, and there is a possibility of mine restart in Guinea. After the sharp rise driven by expectations, there is a risk of correction [7] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: As of July 15, about 7% of US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought. The US - India trade agreement and Indonesia's potential B50 biodiesel plan have boosted US agricultural product prices. In China, oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is mainly guided by US soybean - producing area weather [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil has risen strongly, and soybean oil has followed. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending ratio and the competitiveness of its palm oil in the export market have pushed up prices. Long - term, a long - at - low strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed exports may be affected by Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to be volatile in the short term, and factors such as weather, policies, and biodiesel should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn rose on Friday night. Cofco's increased auctions have affected market expectations, and the auction success rate of US - imported corn was low. Dalian corn futures may continue to bottom - oscillate [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig prices have rebounded slightly. However, the overall supply is abundant in the medium - term, and the industry can participate in short - hedging at high prices [41] - **Eggs**: Large - sized egg prices have strengthened slightly, while small - sized egg prices have weakened. Cold - storage eggs are being released, suppressing price increases. Long - term, the egg - price cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen continuously, but there are concerns about a potential short - squeeze. Pure - cotton yarn prices have increased, but downstream procurement is still cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of the textile - industry growth - stabilization plan [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar is in a downward trend, and the Brazilian production outlook is negative. In China, sugar imports are low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased, and sugar prices are expected to be volatile [44] - **Apples**: Apple futures are volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased year - on - year. The market is focused on new - season yield estimates, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [45] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood futures have rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and due to low inventory and historical - low prices, there is an expectation of price increase. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures have continued to rise. Port inventory has decreased, but domestic imports are still high. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares have increased in volume and oscillated higher. US economic data has been positive, and policies have boosted market risk appetite. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese economy, and a strategy of increasing technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures have oscillated. The market has fully priced in the expectation of monetary easing. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is still strong, and most airlines may raise prices in early August. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [20] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports have increased significantly, and port inventory has accumulated rapidly. Domestic producers are planning autumn maintenance, but some may postpone it due to good profits. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream - device changes [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic pure - benzene production has increased slightly, and port supply is abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. A month - spread band - trading strategy is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Main - port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened, dragging down the futures market [27] - **Polypropylene and Polyethylene**: The cost - side oil price is volatile. Polyethylene supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Polypropylene has some support from ongoing maintenance, but downstream demand is still sluggish [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Affected by the news of backward - capacity elimination, PVC has shown a strong trend. Caustic soda is also strong, but there are concerns about long - term supply increases and weak downstream acceptance [29] - **PX and PTA**: PTA's processing margin is low, and demand is weak, which drags down PX. There are expectations of PTA processing - margin repair [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production has declined, and port inventory has decreased. The price has strengthened, and a short - term long - position strategy is recommended [31] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chips**: Short - fiber production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. Bottle - grade chips production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The short - fiber spot processing margin has repaired, while the bottle - grade chips processing margin has oscillated [32]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with mixed performance among individual stocks [1] - Key sectors showing gains included rare earth permanent magnets, lithium mining, non-ferrous metals, and coal, while gaming, photovoltaics, CPO, and consumer electronics sectors faced declines [1] - CITIC Securities highlighted continuous catalysts in the AI computing power sector, with companies like Meta investing billions in data centers and OpenAI launching a general AI agent in ChatGPT [1] Group 2 - The announcement of the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower super project is seen as a positive development for the hydropower sector [2] - The civil explosives industry is expected to see a significant increase in concentration, with production value projected to grow from 27.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 41.7 billion yuan in 2024, averaging a 5% annual growth [2] - The domestic market indices, driven by heavyweight stocks, returned to the 3,500-point mark, with the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices nearing previous highs, indicating potential short-term technical adjustments [2]

【导读】全市场近百股涨停，大基建板块爆发 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！周一 " 开门红 " ，来一起关注上午的市场行情和最新资讯 ～ 7 月 21 日， A 股市场窄幅震荡。截至午间收盘，上证指数涨 0.44% ，深证成指涨 0.29% ，创业板指涨 0.12% 。 | annon 3549.89 | 10945 76 " " | 2279.83 | was with | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 +0.44% | 深证成指 +0.29% | 创业板指 +0.12% | | 盘面上，大基建板块全面爆发，建材、钢铁、建筑、工程机械等板块集体走高，水利水电建 设、水泥制造、西部大基建、稀土、 宇树 机器人等概念股火热；光模块、稳定币、光刻机、 AI 算力等概念股回调。 全市场半日成交额为 1.1 万亿元，较上日略有放量，其中 3539 只个股上涨， 99 只个股涨 停， 1732 只个股下跌。 港股市场早间高开，午前涨幅有所回落。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨 0.28% ，恒生科技指数 涨 0.32% ，恒生国企指数涨 0.14% 。美团涨 2.75% ，领涨恒生科技指数 成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Yingda State-Owned Enterprise Reform A (001678) reported a profit of 12.55 million yuan for the second quarter of 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 2.47% during the period [3] Fund Performance - As of July 18, the fund's unit net value was 1.621 yuan, with a three-month return of 10.04%, a six-month return of 6.78%, a one-year return of 7.85%, and a three-year return of 16.04% [4] - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years was 0.4178, ranking 22 out of 159 comparable funds [8] - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 30%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q2 2022 at 15.67% [10] Fund Management Strategy - The fund maintains an average stock position of 89.84% over the past three years, with a peak of 93.28% at the end of Q3 2023 [13] - The fund's investment strategy focuses on deep research and value discovery, targeting undervalued stocks in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, food and healthcare, military industry, and emerging technology fields like electronics, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing [3] Fund Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 586 million yuan [15] - The top ten holdings of the fund include companies such as Juhua Co., Crystal Optoelectronics, Zijin Mining, Jiangsu Bank, Sanlipu, Lanke Technology, Changxin Bochuang, Haowei Group, Wentai Technology, and Zhaoyi Innovation [18]