Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts are causing supply chain risks in the aluminum sector, particularly affecting electrolytic aluminum production [5] - Precious metals are currently experiencing a downturn due to a strong US dollar, but their investment value is expected to resurface as liquidity concerns ease [6] - Copper prices are under pressure due to recession expectations linked to rising oil prices, despite a recovery in downstream demand [6] - Aluminum is on an upward trend, driven by supply disruptions and increasing demand as industries resume operations post-holiday [7] - Lithium prices are supported by long-term energy security considerations, with strong demand growth expected in the energy storage sector [7] - Tungsten prices have surged due to tight supply, and the market is closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical tensions [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 9585.63, with a 52-week high of 11180.33 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 1.45%, while aluminum increased by 1.58% this week [20] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold drop by 2.44% and silver by 7.67% [20] Inventory Levels - Global visible copper inventories increased by 8758 tons, aluminum by 16815 tons, zinc by 12844 tons, and lead by 10918 tons [32][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, is the dominant factor affecting the prices of various commodities, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives [1][21]. - The prices of most energy products are likely to remain high due to supply disruptions and geopolitical risks, while the performance of other commodities varies based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [1][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Trump's warning of a new strike on Iran's oil export hub, combined with the inability to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, leads to a significant oil supply gap. Despite measures like the release of strategic reserves, oil prices are expected to stay high until the strait resumes safe passage. Brent reached $106/barrel, and WTI hit $100/barrel [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The war situation may escalate, and the Strait of Hormuz's normal passage is unlikely to be restored soon. The supply gap in the Middle - East cannot be quickly filled, providing strong price support for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The total planned production in March is reduced, and commercial inventory pressure is low. Its price will follow crude oil but with relatively limited fluctuations [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Amid the uncertainty of the Middle - East war and the global economy, and with the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metals continue to oscillate at historical highs. Attention should be paid to the interest - rate decisions of multiple central banks this week [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated and closed lower. Concerns about the Middle - East situation and a strong dollar put pressure on prices. Although short - term trading may be supported by spot buying, the risk of price decline is increasing [3]. - **Aluminum**: Despite significant seasonal inventory accumulation in China, overseas shortages are expected to intensify due to production cuts by Middle - East aluminum producers. Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly and have large fluctuations at historical highs [4]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ingot de - stocking is slow, and the fundamental driving force for price increase is insufficient. Geopolitical factors and high energy prices affect LME zinc prices, but the external market can hardly drive the domestic market. The annual surplus expectation remains unchanged [7]. - **Lead**: The high LME aluminum inventory and the open import window lead to the transfer of overseas surplus pressure to China. The supply pressure is slightly increasing, and the futures price is under pressure [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel price is回调, and the market is dominated by short - term trading. The increase in upstream prices supports the mid - stream. The nickel market lacks independent driving factors and is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Tin**: Last week, tin prices declined. The Middle - East conflict and increased inventory put downward pressure on prices. The target price for the decline of Shanghai tin is 350,000 yuan [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is declining, and the market is active. The overall de - stocking speed is slowing down. The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the demand change after the end of export rush in March [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall supply is slightly increasing, and the demand is limited. The price is expected to oscillate under cost support [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is dominated by a weak fundamental situation. The factory inventory is continuously accumulating, and the price is expected to remain low and oscillate [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is normal, and the port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand is improving, and the cost support is strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating strongly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making production is decreasing. The prices are likely to rise due to energy concerns related to geopolitical conflicts [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The international conflict benefits the cost side. The demand is decreasing, and the price is likely to oscillate [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The production cost in the main产区 is high, and the demand has some resilience. The supply is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The international price has risen significantly, and domestic production is high. It is the peak demand season, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate under the influence of policies [23]. - **Methanol**: The Middle - East geopolitical risk affects the market. The import volume is reduced, and the port inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is driven by geopolitical factors [24]. - **Styrene**: The cost support is strong. The supply is expected to decrease, and the consumption may weaken [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The increase in crude oil and propylene futures prices supports the market. The trading atmosphere of propylene has improved, while the polyethylene market is cautious, and the polypropylene market has supply reduction expectations and cost support but weak downstream acceptance [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC supply is decreasing, and the inventory is under pressure. The cost is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. The caustic soda inventory is decreasing, and the price is rising. It is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices have risen significantly due to the Middle - East situation. The terminal is digesting inventory, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the middle - term [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new production capacity exerts long - term pressure. The port inventory is increasing, and the supply is worried about decreasing. The downstream also has negative feedback pressure [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber inventory is rising, and the market is affected by the Middle - East situation. The bottle - chip supply is expected to decrease, and the price is dominated by upstream raw materials [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: The international oil price increase and geopolitical factors support the cost of soybean - related products. The Brazilian soybean shipment issue also affects the market. The short - term prices are affected by the Middle - East situation, and there may be pressure after the arrival of imported soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The strong crude oil price drives the rise of vegetable oils. The supply of palm oil is expected to tighten, and the soybean import cost has increased. The prices are closely related to the Middle - East situation and the crude oil market [35]. - **Corn**: The US corn price is following the upward trend of crude oil. The domestic non - GMO corn is mainly for feed use. The short - term futures price is affected by geopolitical factors [37]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Pig**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures price is at a low level. The production capacity reduction is insufficient, and the pig price needs to remain low to promote further capacity reduction. The supply is abundant this year, and long - term long positions can be considered after the basis narrows [38]. - **Egg**: The futures price declined on Friday, and the spot price strengthened on the weekend. The supply of laying hens is expected to decrease in the first half of the year, and the price is likely to rise. Long positions can be considered when the futures premium over the spot narrows [39]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating strongly, and the domestic commercial inventory is decreasing. The supply is expected to be tight, and the demand feedback is average. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in the peak season [40]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar production varies in different countries. The domestic market focuses on the expected difference in production. The short - term price faces pressure [41]. - **Apple**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The demand in the northwest region is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problematic. The de - stocking speed may be affected [42]. - **Timber**: The supply may be short in the short - term, the demand is increasing, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating at a low level. The domestic port inventory is high, and the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has some support, and the medium - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [44]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market oscillated lower, and the futures index contracts closed down. The Middle - East situation may affect the Fed's interest - rate decision. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, supporting the A - share market. It is recommended to adopt a balanced allocation strategy in the medium - term and pay attention to defensive sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices fluctuated slightly on March 13. The market may swing between risk aversion and inflation expectations. Strategies such as steepening the 10 - 2Y curve and flattening the 30 - 10Y curve can be considered [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route price has increased, but the actual quotation has declined. The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the shipping companies' price - support measures depend on the actual supply - demand situation [20].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview Construction and Building Materials - The commencement of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in 2026 and improved funding for urban renewal are expected to enhance the fundamentals of the construction and building materials sector, leading to increased market share for leading companies and significant operational flexibility [1][2] - Major projects are anticipated to start in 2026, benefiting top companies in the construction and building materials sectors due to improved funding conditions compared to 2025 [2][3] - The construction and building materials industry has seen a passive increase in market share for leading companies following industry consolidation, which positions them well for upcoming projects [2][3] Aluminum Industry - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has impacted global aluminum production capacity by 7.09 million tons, with China's aluminum production capacity utilization expected to exceed 99% by the second half of 2025, leading to a lack of flexibility [1][5] - The conflict is expected to cause a reduction in production due to raw material shortages and increased energy costs, affecting the global supply chain [5] Lithium Carbonate - A high probability of continued destocking in the first half of 2026, with export restrictions from Zimbabwe and delays in the production of the Ningde mine impacting 15% of global capacity [1][5] - The peak demand season in March and April is expected to result in a shortage of spot supply [1][5] Coal Industry - A reduction of 1 million barrels per day in oil supply translates to a decrease of 1 billion tons of coal supply, leading to an expanded price gap between oil and coal, which will enhance profits and operational rates in coal chemical industries [1][7] - China is expected to increase coal production by 300 million tons to address the supply gap, benefiting production and transportation sectors [1][7] Investment Strategies Recommended Companies - In the construction sector, focus on companies with clear new business layouts and reasonable valuations, such as China Chemical and Tunnel Shares [4] - In the building materials sector, companies like Oriental Yuhong and Sanke Tree are recommended due to their pricing power and improved profitability [4] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, companies like Shenhuo Co. and Lingbao Gold are highlighted for their growth potential [4][6] Real Estate Policy Impact - The Ministry of Natural Resources' "Document No. 38" emphasizes strict control over new land supply for commercial real estate, pushing developers towards comprehensive operations [1][8] - The document signals a long-term shift from incremental to stock-based development in the real estate market, with a focus on revitalizing existing land [8][9] Market Dynamics - The "Document No. 38" is expected to support asset prices in core urban areas, potentially reversing negative sentiment towards housing prices in these regions [10][11] - Developers with strong product capabilities and those with a high proportion of held properties are likely to benefit from the new policy environment [11][12] Risks and Opportunities - Large developers may face sales scale bottlenecks if their income from development declines without timely compensation from held properties [12][13] - Smaller developers may find opportunities due to reduced competition and the limitations on the expansion of larger firms [12][13] Key Investment Logic - Focus on companies benefiting from long-term structural upgrades in the industry, such as Binhai Group [14] - Emphasize companies with diverse income scenarios and a "real estate + commercial" model, like China Resources Land [14] - Consider growth-oriented companies with development potential under the new policy guidance, such as Yuexiu Property [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts; silver requires attention to liquidity contraction; copper's price decline is limited by the reduction of domestic inventories; zinc prices are under pressure; lead prices are pressured by the increase of domestic inventories; tin is in a state of shock adjustment; aluminum requires attention to supply issues in the Middle East; alumina's cost is rising; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum requires attention to the support strength of actual demand; palladium is generally pessimistic; nickel's price is supported by the shortage of ore supply despite the accumulation of smelting inventories and macro - sentiment resonance; stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment but supported by actual costs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06, with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1144.20, with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 418,498, an increase of 25,719 compared to the previous day, and the position was 126,419, a decrease of 13,351 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Q4 GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7% due to the government shutdown. The US March Michigan consumer confidence hit a three - month low. The US January core PCE price increased by 3.1% year - on - year, reaching a two - year high. China's February new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year [5][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [9]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21854, with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21546.00, with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 526,514, a decrease of 187,374 compared to the previous day, and the position was 150,089, a decrease of 11,077 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,310, with a daily decline of 0.69%, and the night - session closing price was 99730, with a decline of 0.58%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 183,195, a decrease of 16,426 compared to the previous day, and the position was 579,456, a decrease of 1,832 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US is reported to have sent marines and warships to the Middle East. Trump claimed to launch a "violent air strike" on Iran next week. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. Zambia aims to triple copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24140, with a daily decline of 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 85941, a decrease of 23062 compared to the previous day, and the position was 75191, an increase of 2465 [13]. - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14th to 17th. China's February new social financing was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year - on - year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16555, with a daily decline of 0.36%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 45931, an increase of 15603 compared to the previous day, and the position was 63681, an increase of 1415 [16]. - **News**: The US is reported to have sent marines and warships to the Middle East. Trump claimed to launch a "violent air strike" on Iran next week [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 374,110, with a daily decline of 4.14%, and the night - session closing price was 372,860, with a decline of 3.31%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 227,740, an increase of 12,579 compared to the previous day, and the position was 35,386, an increase of 2,288 [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Q4 GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7% due to the government shutdown. The US military claimed to have "successfully attacked" more than 90 military targets on Iran's Kharg Island. China's State Council executive meeting studied the establishment of a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies. Meta plans to lay off 20% of its employees [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24960, a decrease of 280 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2956, an increase of 91 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23655, a decrease of 335 compared to the previous day [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: Trump launched a "violent air strike" on Iran's Kharg Island. Iran said it would retaliate if attacked. The US January core PCE price increased by 3.1% year - on - year [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is 1; aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 541.60, with a decline of 4.08%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 408.10, with a decline of 2.04% [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations began in Paris [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is - 1; palladium trend intensity is - 1 [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 136,930, a decrease of 1,170 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,190, a decrease of 95 compared to the previous day [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore. Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. The Indonesian government has approved a nickel ore production quota. There were various incidents in the nickel industry such as landslides and production suspensions [31][32][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core logic of the aluminum market still revolves around the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz extends and the scale of production cuts in the Middle East expands, the expectation of an overseas supply gap is continuously strengthening. Meanwhile, energy prices are pushing up costs, and aluminum prices will continue to be in a strong upward state [2][7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [2][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Trading Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price increased from 3431 yuan/ton to 3439 yuan/ton, a rise of 8 yuan/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price increased from 24845 dollars/ton to 25140 dollars/ton, a rise of 295 dollars/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.2 to 7.3, an increase of 0.1 [3]. - The LME spot premium decreased from 47.4 dollars/ton to 30.83 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16.6 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 456875 tons to 445300 tons, a decrease of 11575 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 329627 tons to 361968 tons, an increase of 32341 tons [3]. - The spot average price increased from 24298 yuan/ton to 25014 yuan/ton, a rise of 716 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot premium decreased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The South China storage spot average price increased from 24268 yuan/ton to 24956 yuan/ton, a rise of 688 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 30 yuan/ton to 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 125.6 tons to 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons [3]. - The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 15858.35 yuan/ton to 15895.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.4 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 8439.66 yuan/ton to 9118.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 678.6 yuan/ton [3]. - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24500 yuan/ton to 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton [3]. - The Baotai spot price of cast aluminum increased from 24100 yuan/ton to 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2611 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]. - The refined - scrap price difference in Shanghai increased from 3418 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton, an increase of 142 yuan/ton [3]. - The warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 58729 tons to 54311 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons [3]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 25014 yuan/ton, an increase of 716 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 24956 yuan/ton, an increase of 688 yuan/ton compared with last week [4]. - In terms of the macro - situation, the US President Trump said that there were "almost no targets left to strike" in Iran, and the US military action against Iran was "about to end". However, Iran's Supreme Leader Muqtada al - Sadr stated that Iran would not give up revenge and would continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The US CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. But the market believes that the February data did not reflect the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to support the Fed's decision on when to cut interest rates again [4]. - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year - on - year. In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3% [5]. - In the electrolytic aluminum consumption end, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate was 9%, showing a post - holiday recovery trend, with all lines increasing month - on - month, and the industry as a whole entered the normal production rhythm. High aluminum prices and macro - uncertainty are continuously suppressing the elasticity of demand release, and the quality of the traditional "Golden March" peak season remains to be seen [5]. - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on March 12, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 3.8 tons to 129.4 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week [5]. - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 25200 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 24700 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2646 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum increased by 142 yuan/ton to 3560 yuan/ton. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased to 58.8% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 5.4 tons, a decrease of 4418 tons compared with last Friday [6]. 3. Market Outlook - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the Middle East conflict shows signs of turning into a protracted war, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. Last week, a Qatari aluminum plant announced production cuts due to a natural gas shortage, and its production capacity has been reduced to 60%, with a reduction of about 25.9 tons. Some Iranian production capacities have carried out preventive production cuts, and Bahrain Aluminum announced a production cut of 31 tons of production capacity over the weekend, expanding the expected overseas supply gap. The domestic downstream operating rate after the holiday continued to rise by 2.4% to 61.9%. During the week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 129.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with last week, and the aluminum rod inventory was 38.6 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with before the holiday. Overall, the aluminum market will continue to be in a strong upward state [7]. - In the cast aluminum market, the operating rate of aluminum alloy last week increased by 2.5% to 58.8%, and enterprises continued to resume work and production, with the operating rate slowly recovering to the pre - holiday level. In terms of imports, the overseas ADC12 price has risen to around 3400 dollars/ton due to the increase in shipping costs, and the import loss has expanded to 1800 yuan/ton, so the supply pressure of domestic cast aluminum is not large. The consumer end is slowly resuming production and has limited acceptance of high prices, and the consumption recovery is slow. Overall, both supply and demand are in a wait - and - see state. On the cost side, scrap aluminum yards have resumed work, but the reverse invoicing policy has become stricter, and the increase in circulating supply is limited. Primary aluminum has risen rapidly due to the Middle East conflict, and scrap aluminum prices have followed the increase actively, strengthening cost support. Overall, the supply and demand of cast aluminum are both sluggish, and its driving effect on the market is limited. For now, cost support is dominant, and cast aluminum will continue to operate strongly [8]. 4. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 43 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to February, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 97.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8%, compared with 86.1 tons in the same period last year [12]. - Rio Tinto Group offered to provide Japanese buyers with aluminum ingots for the second quarter at a premium of 350 dollars/ton, up from the previous offer of 250 dollars/ton. The aluminum premium in Japan in the first quarter was 195 dollars/ton [12]. - Affected by the continuous fermentation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, leading to a "standstill" in the shipment of aluminum products in the region. Mercuria, the world's largest independent integrated energy and commodity trading group, plans to urgently withdraw nearly 10 tons of aluminum from the London Metal Exchange (LME) storage facilities to ease the supply gap in the European and American markets [12].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Aluminum - The geopolitical conflict between the US - Israel and Iran continues, affecting the aluminum market through high oil prices and supply - chain disruptions [4]. - The Qatalum aluminum smelter in Qatar has stopped further production cuts and maintained its capacity at about 60%. However, there is uncertainty about future production resumption [4]. - Aluminum inventories decreased in mid - March, and the internal - external price difference widened, increasing the profit of aluminum product exports [4]. - The aluminum market is expected to run in a strong and volatile manner, with a trading strategy of being bullish on dips [4]. Alumina - Geopolitical conflicts have led to rising shipping and domestic freight costs, affecting the alumina market [84]. - The price of bauxite has increased, and there are concerns about export quotas in Guinea [84]. - Alumina production capacity is in a state of slight over - supply in the short term, with prices expected to rise in a narrow range [84]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Macro - The geopolitical conflict between the US - Israel and Iran since February 28, 2026, continues. Iran may take strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices remain high. The Fed's interest - rate meeting next week is worth attention [4]. Industrial Supply - The Qatalum aluminum smelter in Qatar has stopped further production cuts due to low natural gas supply and will maintain its capacity at about 60% (648,000 tons/year). The timing of production resumption is uncertain [4]. - An Indonesian Chinese - funded aluminum smelter's project may be delayed by 1 - 2 months due to slow environmental assessment [4]. - Mozal in Mozambique is expected to cut production in mid - March, and a domestic electrolytic aluminum plant in Northeast China is expected to resume production as scheduled this month [4]. Industrial Demand and Inventory - In mid - March, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 49,900 tons week - on - week, and apparent demand increased. The internal - external price difference widened, increasing the profit of aluminum product exports [4]. - Overseas traders cancelled or designated the delivery of nearly 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Port of Klang, and Rio Tinto raised the aluminum premium for Japanese customers by 79% [4]. Trading Logic and Strategy - Uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation, suspension of production cuts in Qatari aluminum plants, and high overseas spot premiums. Pay attention to whether the concern of LME aluminum warrant cancellations will widen the monthly spread [4]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish on dips, and wait and see for derivatives and arbitrage [3][4]. Downstream Demand - **Photovoltaic**: In January 2026, photovoltaic module production decreased by 3.5GW month - on - month. The overall production in 2025 decreased slightly year - on - year. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 may be weak, and the second - quarter demand is uncertain [61]. - **Automobile**: In February 2026, automobile production and sales declined year - on - year and month - on - month. However, exports maintained high growth, especially for new - energy vehicles [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is still in the de - stocking process, with weak completion data, but the decline is expected to be relatively moderate [68]. - **Power Investment and Cables**: The investment in the power grid during the 15th Five - Year Plan is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan. In February, the aluminum rod production decreased year - on - year [72]. - **Home Appliances**: In March 2026, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.0% year - on - year [75]. - **Exports**: In February 2026, China exported 430,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. The export profit increased, and the subsequent export volume is expected to rise [78]. Supply - Demand Balance - The global electrolytic aluminum supply - demand balance shows a deficit in some years. China's production and demand are also in a complex balance, with net imports and strategic reserves affecting the market [80]. Alumina Macro - The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing shipping and domestic freight costs [84]. Raw Material - The price of Guinea bauxite has risen, with the spot price of 45/3 bauxite at $62 - 64 per dry ton. There are concerns about export quotas in Guinea [84]. Supply - The alumina industry's production enthusiasm has increased due to high prices and expected cost reduction. However, the operating capacity is between 9.35 - 9.4 million tons due to maintenance and production cuts, in a state of slight over - supply [84]. - On March 14, South32 reported a fatal accident at the Worsley alumina plant in Australia, and non - critical operations have been suspended [84]. Trading Logic and Strategy - Geopolitical conflicts and rising shipping costs have increased market sentiment, but the actual impact on supply and demand is limited. The price is expected to rise in a narrow range [84]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Cost and Profit - In February 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina was 2,604 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 22 yuan/ton. Shandong and Guangxi regions had better profitability [102]. Inventory - As of March 12, the national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous week. Electrolytic aluminum plants' inventory decreased slightly, while alumina enterprises' inventory increased [105]. New Investment - There are many new alumina investment projects overseas and in China, mainly in India, Indonesia, and some domestic regions such as Shandong, Guangxi, etc. [116][118] Bauxite Cost - The FOB cash cost of Guinea bauxite is affected by multiple factors, and different CIF prices have different impacts on mine production. The cost structure is becoming more complex [122]. Supply - Demand Balance - The global metallurgical - grade alumina supply - demand balance shows different situations in different years. China's production and demand are also in a dynamic balance, with net imports affecting the market [134]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260313 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美联储年内降息预期消退，国内市场股弱债强 海外方面，伊朗新领袖强硬表态继续关闭霍尔木兹海峡、保留报复并威胁攻击中东美军 基地，显示其正将地缘冲突升级为持续性的能源与航运施压；美方则一边为护航做准备，一 边拟通过《琼斯法》短期豁降低能源运输成本，短期核心矛盾仍在海峡通行能否恢复与油运 风险能否被有效控制。伊朗此前袭击两艘油轮后，油价重返 100 美元上方，市场对美联储年 内降息的预期消退，美股低开低走，金银铜延续跌势，美元指数升至 99.7，创逾三个月新高， 10 年期美债收益率站上 4.25%。后续继续关注美伊局势进展及今晚公布的美国 PCE 数据。 国内方面，周四 A 股缩量收跌，红利风格独涨、双创板块领跌，两市成交额小幅缩量至 2.46 万亿，超 3800 只个股收跌，赚钱效应进一步走弱，市场近期活跃度一般，增量资金入 市动能不足。目前中东冲突仍在演绎、海外不确定上升仍对 A 股风险偏好形成压制，短期 市场大概率维持震荡与板块分化格局。债市走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment. For example, aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [26]; while industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend strength of -1, suggesting a relatively negative outlook [49]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by geopolitical conflicts, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to fluctuations in energy and commodity prices [138]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, some commodities like PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to be strong due to supply - side constraints, while others like动力煤 are facing price declines due to supply - demand imbalances [79][80][81][65]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and silver requires attention to liquidity contraction. The prices of gold and silver futures showed different trends, with Comex gold rising and some domestic gold contracts falling. ETF holdings of gold and silver decreased [7]. - **Copper**: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased slightly, and the London copper price also declined. There are geopolitical and industry - related news, such as the US increasing military deployment in the Middle East and Mongolia's re - negotiation of mining contracts [12]. - **Zinc**: The price is under pressure. The prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the London zinc 3M electronic disk both decreased, and there are relevant news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations [15]. - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase puts pressure on the price. The prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased [18]. - **Tin**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk decreased [22]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum needs to pay attention to Middle East supply issues, alumina's cost is rising, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are geopolitical and industry - related news [25]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum needs to pay attention to the support of actual demand, and palladium is generally pessimistic. The prices of platinum and palladium futures decreased [28]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, smelting inventory accumulation and macro - sentiment resonate, and the shortage of the ore end supports the lower price. Stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment, but the actual cost provides support [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The prices of relevant contracts decreased, and there are news about new energy projects and industry development [41]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a range - bound pattern, and polysilicon's demand continues to weaken. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about energy - related meetings [46]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and a positive spread arbitrage is possible. The price of the iron ore futures contract increased, and there are relevant news about the government's work report and steel production [50]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar**: The cost center has risen, and the prices are in a wide - range shock. The prices of relevant contracts increased slightly, and there are news about steel production, inventory, and trade [53]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market's long and short sentiments continue to compete, and the prices are in shock. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about iron alloy prices and production [57]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The downstream replenishment enthusiasm is fermenting, and the prices are in a wide - range shock. The prices of relevant contracts increased slightly, and there are news about coal price indexes and auctions [60]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand situation is loosening, and the coal price is回调. The prices of relevant contracts and spot prices showed different trends, and there are news about coal imports and market supply - demand [64]. - **Log**: The supply has recovered, the inventory has accumulated, and the log price has回调. The prices of relevant contracts decreased slightly, and there are news about demand and supply and real - estate policies [66]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still strong. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about supply - side strategies and market expectations [70]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of the rubber main contract decreased, and there are news about inventory and tire enterprise conditions [82]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a wide - range shock during the day, and the price center has moved up. The price of the synthetic rubber main contract decreased slightly, and there are news about inventory and market expectations [86]. - **Caustic Soda**: The driving force is upward, but the short - term valuation is slightly high. The price of the caustic soda futures contract increased, and there are news about supply - side production reduction and export [90]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock operation. The price of the pulp main contract increased slightly, and there are news about market supply - demand and price trends [94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of the glass futures contract increased slightly, and there are news about the glass market price and trading [100]. - **Methanol**: It is running strongly. The price of the methanol main contract increased, and there are news about inventory and market supply - demand [103]. - **Urea**: It is in a wide - range shock, and the fundamentals support the price. The price of the urea main contract increased slightly, and there are news about inventory and market expectations [109]. - **Styrene**: It is in a strong shock. The price of the styrene main contract showed different trends, and there are news about supply - side reduction and export [112]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the soda ash futures contract increased slightly, and there are news about market supply - demand and price trends [115]. - **Propylene and LPG**: The cost side is affected by geopolitics, and the supply has a reduction expectation. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about price indexes and production plans [120]. - **PVC**: The driving force is upward, and attention should be paid to overseas supply. The price of the PVC futures contract increased, and there are news about supply - side production reduction and market expectations [128]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is in a slight consolidation, and the price is still at a high level in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range adjustment, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to rise [131]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They are in high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to upward risks. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about market transactions [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices of relevant contracts and spot prices are relatively stable, and there are news about market supply - demand [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a strong shock. The price of the pure benzene main contract showed different trends, and there are news about inventory and market transactions [148]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil has frequent speculation themes and is running strongly. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and is in a short - term high - level shock. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about production and export policies [153]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The market sentiment of soybean meal is strong and may rebound and shock. The spot price of soybeans in the production area is stable, and the disk is strong. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about market trends and quality concerns [160]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock operation. The price of the corn futures contract decreased slightly, and there are news about spot prices [163]. - **Sugar**: Driven by the rise in crude oil, it is in a shock - upward trend. The prices of relevant contracts and spot prices increased, and there are news about production and import [167]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the external market trend. The prices of relevant contracts decreased slightly, and there are news about the domestic and international cotton markets [171]. - **Egg**: It is in a range - bound shock. The prices of relevant contracts showed different trends, and there are news about spot prices and feed prices [177]. - **Live Pig**: The inventory reduction and weight reduction may start, and the spot price is under pressure. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about spot prices and market trends [180]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The prices of relevant contracts increased, and there are news about spot market transactions [183].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-16 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-16 所长 早读 第六轮中美经贸磋商在法国启动 观点分享： 据新华社消息，当地时间 3 月 15 日上午，中美两国经贸团队在法国巴黎开始举行中美 经贸磋商。人民日报钟声：今年是中美关系的"大年"，双方经贸关系能否如世界所盼，延 续稳下来的势头，本轮磋商意义重大。此次谈判的背景微妙，一是美国最高法院裁定部分对 华关税不合法，面临 1750 亿美元退税+利息的财政压力；二是美国企业与农业州强烈要求关 税松动；三是中东冲突推高全球通胀与能源风险，中美都需要稳经济、稳预期。此次谈判的 议题包括关税与 301 调查、 贸易平衡与供应链以及全球规则与多边主义等。对于磋商可能的结果，我们认为，美国 中期选举在即，对华强硬是政治刚需，全面取消关税概率不大；而中方绝不会牺牲发展权从 而接受单方面让步，所以取得重大突破的可能性不大，但谈总比不谈好。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 关注指数 | | | | 原油 | ★★★★ | | | ...

有色金属ETF基金（516650）业绩比较基准为中证细分有色金属产业主题指数收益率，管理人为华夏基 金管理有限公司，基金经理为单宽之，成立（2021-06-09）以来回报为114.30%，近一个月回报为 0.12%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 3月16日，有色金属ETF基金（516650）开盘跌1.59%，报2.108元。有色金属ETF基金（516650）重仓股 方面，紫金矿业开盘跌2.04%，洛阳钼业跌2.83%，北方稀土跌0.04%，华友钴业跌0.72%，中国铝业涨 0.71%，赣锋锂业跌0.29%，山东黄金跌2.17%，云铝股份涨0.72%，中金黄金跌2.50%，天齐锂业跌 0.46%。 ...