Market Overview - Global markets faced pressure due to geopolitical tensions, with A-shares declining and oil and gas stocks rising against the trend[3] - European markets experienced significant declines, with the Eurozone Stoxx 600 down 2.4% and the UK FTSE 100 down 2.3%[7] - US stocks also fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.4% and the S&P 500 down 0.3%, although losses narrowed towards the end of the trading session[8] Commodity and Forex Trends - Gold prices fell over 3% for the seventh consecutive trading day, closing at $4,650.02 per ounce[25] - Brent crude oil saw volatility, closing up 1.18% at $108.65 per barrel, while NY crude oil dropped 0.8% to $95.55 per barrel[25] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.9%, while the euro appreciated by 1.2% against the dollar[24] Fixed Income Market - The Bank of England's hawkish stance led to a significant drop in UK bonds, with the two-year yield rising by 30 basis points to 4.40%[29] - US Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield at 4.25% after a slight decline[29] Real Estate Sector Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicates a shift towards high-quality development in China's real estate sector, with sales expected to stabilize and interest rates potentially rising moderately during this period[5] - The Chinese government reported a 3.6% year-on-year increase in general public budget expenditure for January-February[5] Stock Performance Highlights - Alibaba's Q3 revenue was below expectations, with a 1.7% year-on-year increase, while its cloud business grew by 36%[11] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.02%, with technology stocks underperforming due to hawkish signals from the Fed[9]

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026年03月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：宏观风险偏好施压，矿端矛盾限制下方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面与宏观施压，现实成本支撑 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：消息面利空影响 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注下方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：现货价格下跌回落 | 6 | 2026 年 3 月 20 日 镍：宏观风险偏好施压，矿端矛盾限制下方弹性 不锈钢：基本面与宏观施压，现实成本支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 131,550 | -3,650 | -6,550 | -4,720 | -3,640 | 16,8 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4006.55 points, down 1.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13901.57 points, down 2.02% [5][10] - A total of 28 out of 30 sectors in the CITIC index declined, with non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials showing the largest drops. Only coal and oil & petrochemicals saw gains [10][11] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 21,273 billion, continuing to decrease from the previous day [5][10] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.44%, S&P 500 down 0.27%, and Nasdaq down 0.28%. Notably, Tesla fell over 3% [2][5] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropped by 1%, with Alibaba falling over 7% and Canadian Solar down nearly 27% [2][5] Key Drivers - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity and stabilize financial markets [11][13] - On the same day, 505 stocks in the A-share market rose, while 4,955 fell, indicating a market with excessive short-term fear, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [11][12] Economic Data - In the first two months of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 44,154 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [14][15] - Tax revenue was 36,393 billion, with a slight increase of 0.1%, while non-tax revenue grew by 3.4% to 7,761 billion [14][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On March 19, 2026, the four major stock index futures contracts all declined. The market is in a continuous shock pattern due to the frustration of loose expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - **Futures Index Data**: On March 19, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts all declined. IF fell 1.31%, IH fell 1.29%, IC fell 2.37%, and IM fell 1.9%. The trading volume of some contracts increased, and the positions of some contracts also changed. For example, the total trading volume of IF increased by 12,184 lots, and the total position increased by 6,721 lots [1][2]. 3.2. Basis of Futures Index - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts is presented in the form of a graph, showing the changes in the basis of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next - quarter contracts over a period of time [4]. 3.3. Changes in Positions of the Top 20 Members of Futures Index - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts are provided. For example, in the IF2603 contract, long positions decreased by 16,112 lots, and short positions decreased by 16,933 lots [5]. 3.4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [6]. 3.5. Important Drivers - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has continued to escalate. Iran has carried out missile attacks on Israeli targets, and the US President has made statements regarding the conflict and oil - related issues [7][8]. - **Central Bank Decisions**: During the "Super Central Bank Week," the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Swedish Central Bank all announced to keep interest rates unchanged. Market expectations of interest rate hikes have increased [8]. 3.6. Market Conditions of A - shares and Hong Kong Stocks - **A - shares**: The A - share market fluctuated and adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39% to 4,006.55 points. The market turnover was 2.06 trillion yuan, and more than 4,900 stocks declined. Some sectors such as non - ferrous metals, fertilizers, and pesticides fell, while oil and gas, coal, and CPO concepts strengthened [9]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Hong Kong stocks fell sharply with increased trading volume. The Hang Seng Index fell 2.02% to 25,500.58 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.19%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.58%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of more than HK$26 billion [9]. 3.7. Regulatory and Policy - related Information - The central bank has deployed key tasks for this year, including continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining market liquidity, and promoting the resolution of debt risks of financing platforms. The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the capital market [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's research report indicates that Geely Automobile's Q4 2025 performance is solid, with sales and net profit exceeding market expectations by 5% and 10% respectively, driven by an improved luxury vehicle mix [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Geely's sales guidance for 2026 is maintained at 3.45 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% [2] - Adjusted net profit forecast for Geely for the current year is raised by 6% to RMB 19.3 billion [2] Group 2: Market Position - Macquarie has raised Geely's target price by 4.3%, from HKD 23 to HKD 24, which corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of 12 times for 2026 [2] - In the Greater China region, Macquarie believes Geely offers the best risk-reward ratio among Chinese automotive stocks and maintains it as their industry preferred stock [2] Group 3: Sales Strategy - Management reiterated the overseas sales target for 2026 at 640,000 units, with an internal challenge target close to 750,000 units [2]

Macro Research - The report indicates that tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to disrupt US inflation expectations, with the Federal Reserve's short-term concerns about inflation outweighing worries about stagnation, leading to suppressed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in US stocks and bonds [2][4] - It is anticipated that the rate cut expectations may rise again in the second half of the year, contingent on the stabilization of tariffs and geopolitical risks, as well as the weakening job market [4][5] Overseas Technology Research - Google - Google's search advertising remains strong, with AI enhancing advertising space; the Gemini 3 series is currently leading the market, and the Flash model aids in price competition for consumer-facing products [2][7] - Revenue forecasts for FY2026E-FY2028E have been adjusted to $464.2 billion, $526.6 billion, and $587.4 billion respectively, with GAAP net profits projected at $146.4 billion, $172.2 billion, and $194.0 billion [7] - The report assigns a target price of $383 based on a 32X PE valuation for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] Real Estate Research - Beike-W - Beike is actively developing non-housing businesses to mitigate cyclical risks, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns [2][9] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 are estimated at 5.216 billion, 5.735 billion, and 7.423 billion yuan, with a corresponding reasonable value of 54.08 yuan per share [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of the 3P model in Beike's business, with its share of net income increasing from 11.3% in 2021 to 20.0% in 2025 [10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closing at 25,500.58 points and 8,695.88 points, down 2.0% and 1.6% respectively[1] - Total trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 306.2 billion, an increase of 27.4% from the previous day's HKD 240.4 billion, indicating some investors' urgency to reduce holdings[1] Sector Performance - The energy sector index rose by 2.8%, while materials, information technology, and real estate sectors fell by 7.7%, 4.5%, and 3.1% respectively[1] - Among blue-chip stocks, CNOOC (883 HK) and Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) led gains, rising by 4.5% and 3.4% respectively; while Zijin Mining (2899 HK) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK) saw declines of 7.1% and 6.8%[1] Economic Implications - Ongoing attacks on Middle Eastern energy production facilities are exacerbating supply constraints, leading to sustained high commodity prices, which may increase global inflation and the likelihood of interest rate hikes[2] - Gold prices have dropped from USD 5,200 to below USD 4,700, negatively impacting metal prices[2] Real Estate and Investment Strategies - The real estate market, particularly in Hong Kong, is expected to be affected by interest rate fluctuations, with major developers like Henderson Land (12 HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK), and New World Development (17 HK) experiencing declines of 2.4% to 4.1%[2] - Defensive investors may consider high-dividend Hong Kong stocks like Hong Kong Telecom (6823 HK) amid market volatility[2] U.S. Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 205,000, lower than the previous week's 213,000 and market expectations of 215,000[3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Signals - The Federal Reserve's March meeting indicated a hawkish stance, mentioning geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which may influence future policy shifts[3] - The dot plot showed an increase in economic and inflation forecasts, with the 2026 PCE inflation forecast raised from 2.4% to 2.7%[4] - Market expectations for rate cuts decreased from 26 basis points to 11 basis points following the meeting, reflecting a potential overreaction to the Fed's hawkish signals[5] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed's median GDP growth forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 were adjusted to 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, up from previous estimates[4] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 was slightly increased from 4.2% to 4.3%[4] - Long-term economic growth expectations were raised from 1.8% to 2.0%, indicating optimism about productivity improvements[4] Group 3: Market Implications - High oil prices are expected to elevate global inflation and delay central bank rate cuts, impacting risk assets negatively[5] - The dollar index is likely to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and high oil prices, while non-dollar currencies may weaken[5] - The current geopolitical tensions may create favorable conditions for quality long-term assets, including technology leaders benefiting from AI trends and precious metals[5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound, particularly in the automotive sector, with significant inflows into the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF, indicating a positive sentiment towards automotive stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of March 20, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF (159210) rose by 2.6%, potentially ending a three-day decline, with over 11 million yuan in inflows over the past three days [1]. - Major component stocks of the ETF saw substantial gains, including Horizon Robotics up over 6%, Geely Automobile up over 5%, and CATL up over 3% [3]. Group 2: Key Company Highlights - Geely Automobile reported a total revenue of 345.23 billion yuan for 2025, a 25% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high, with a net profit of 16.85 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [5]. - Geely's cumulative deliveries for January and February reached 476,300 units, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, surpassing BYD to become the sales champion, with 241,700 units of new energy vehicles sold, a 10.1% increase year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The automotive industry is undergoing dual transformations centered around electrification and AI integration, with expectations for significant advancements in smart driving and vehicle technology [11]. - The demand for automobiles is expected to remain resilient despite policy changes, with a notable recovery in mid-to-high-end demand driven by shifts in consumer habits and product competitiveness [6]. - The global expansion of Chinese smart electric vehicles is anticipated, with projections of nearly 10 million units in overseas sales within five years [7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF tracks the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive Industry Theme Index, covering the entire automotive supply chain, including electric vehicles and related technologies [11]. - The ETF's top holdings include leading companies such as BYD, Xpeng Motors, and Li Auto, focusing on opportunities in smart driving and energy storage sectors [11].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The recent FOMC meeting decided to pause interest rate cuts, aligning with market expectations, and highlighted a more optimistic view on inflation, suggesting that the recent energy supply shock is likely a one-time event [2] - There are concerns about potential stagflation, with the Fed raising its PCE inflation forecast and noting that the absolute level of new job creation is too low, posing risks [2] - Powell's comments on his future at the Fed depend on whether the new chairman, Waller, can be confirmed by the Senate in a timely manner, and whether the Trump administration will conclude its investigations [2] Group 2: Company Research - AIA Group (1299.HK) reported a 8.8% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, while new business value (NBV) increased by 17.1%. The company expects continued growth in NBV driven by agency and partner distribution channels [3] - Haitan International (1882.HK) achieved a 10.0% year-on-year revenue growth and a 7.2% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025. The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 downwards by 6.7% and 6.1% respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2028 [4] - Geely Automobile (0175.HK) has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 down by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2028. The company remains optimistic about product structure improvements and export growth [4] - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) is progressing steadily in its cleaning equipment business, with new product development on track. The company is expected to see net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.829 billion, 2.285 billion, and 2.667 billion for 2026-2028 [5] - Saint Bella Group (2508.HK), a leader in high-end postpartum care, is well-positioned to benefit from industry upgrades and is expanding into overseas markets. The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 121 million, 178 million, and 279 million for 2025-2027 [6]