Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities has initiated coverage on Cao Cao Mobility (02643) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the coexistence of autonomous and human-driven ride-hailing services in multiple cities for an extended period, which will provide long-term growth opportunities for the company [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Cao Cao Mobility reported total revenue of 9.456 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%, while net profit was a loss of 0.495 billion RMB, reducing losses by 0.272 billion RMB [1] - The non-recurring gains and losses for H1 2025 amounted to 0.141 billion RMB, with a half-year net return on equity (ROE) of 13.14% and a net cash flow from operating activities of 0.325 billion RMB [1] Business Composition - The company's operations are solely in mainland China, primarily consisting of three segments: ride-hailing services (revenue of 8.6 billion RMB, accounting for 91% of total revenue), vehicle sales (7.9% of revenue), and car rentals (1.1% of revenue) [1] - As of June 30, the company operated in 163 cities with a total gross transaction value (GTV) of 11 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 53.6%, and processed approximately 380 million ride-hailing orders, up 49% year-on-year [1] Strategic Developments - In February 2025, the company launched its autonomous driving platform "Cao Cao Smart Travel" in Hangzhou and plans to introduce a fully customized smart passenger vehicle by 2026, balancing cost and experience [2] - The company aims to leverage the R&D capabilities of its shareholder Geely Group to quickly launch L4-level autonomous driving customized models, enhancing its competitiveness in the Robotaxi market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Caocao Travel (02643) is a ride-hailing platform empowered by Geely Group, maintaining a strong second position in market share, with a projected CAGR of 39% from 2022 to 2024, and plans for a successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2025, marking a new phase of expansion and technological upgrades [1] Group 1: Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Caocao Travel operates the largest customized ride-hailing fleet in China, leveraging Geely Group's manufacturing and service support to build differentiated competitive advantages, significantly reducing supply-side costs and increasing driver income [2] - The company attracts quality drivers through stable order volumes and a standardized management system, while its brand recognition and differentiated service experiences enhance user loyalty [2] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - The company is accelerating penetration into lower-tier markets, planning to enter 27 new cities by mid-2025 through sales of customized vehicles to local partners, with further expansion into high-tier markets expected to increase market share [3] - Profitability is anticipated to improve as the cost of customized vehicles is optimized, with potential for increased commission rates and better user subsidy efficiency, positioning Caocao Travel favorably against industry leaders like Didi [3] Group 3: Autonomous Driving - In February 2025, Caocao Travel will launch its autonomous driving platform, integrating Geely Group's "Qianli Haohan" Robotaxi solution, transitioning from technology validation to scenario-based operations [4] - The core advantage of the autonomous driving business lies in its unique "smart manufacturing + smart driving + smart operation" model, with plans to initiate commercial operations for unmanned driving by 2027, indicating strong potential in the Robotaxi sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - Caocao Travel, backed by Geely Group, is positioned as a leading ride-hailing platform with a stable market share, expected to maintain growth above industry average due to its cost advantages and differentiated services [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Caocao Travel is a ride-hailing platform empowered by Geely Group, with Geely's chairman holding a 77% stake, ensuring strong backing [1] - The company holds the second-largest market share in China, with a revenue CAGR of 39% projected from 2022 to 2024 [1] - The company plans to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2025, marking a new phase of expansion and technological upgrades [1] Group 2: Business Model and Competitive Advantage - Caocao Travel operates the largest customized ride-hailing fleet in China, leveraging Geely's manufacturing and service capabilities to create a differentiated competitive edge [2] - The customized vehicle ecosystem significantly reduces supply-side costs, leading to higher driver incomes, while a stable order volume attracts quality drivers [2] - The company primarily sources orders through a platform aggregation model, enhancing brand recognition and user loyalty through superior service [2] Group 3: Future Growth Potential - The company is accelerating penetration into lower-tier markets, planning to enter 27 new cities by mid-2025 through partnerships for customized vehicle sales [3] - There is significant potential for market share growth as the company deepens its presence in high-tier markets and expands into new lower-tier cities [3] - Profitability is expected to improve through further optimization of customized vehicle costs, enhanced user subsidy efficiency, and scale effects, positioning Caocao Travel favorably against industry leaders like Didi [3] Group 4: Autonomous Driving Initiatives - In February 2025, Caocao Travel will launch its autonomous driving platform, integrating Geely's Robotaxi solutions, transitioning from technology validation to operational scenarios [4] - The core advantage of the autonomous driving business lies in its unique "smart manufacturing + smart driving + smart operation" model [4] - The company aims to initiate commercial operations for unmanned driving by 2027, indicating strong potential in the Robotaxi sector [4]

Core Insights - The business landscape in 2025 has drastically changed, with capital reshaping the rules of the game, making it increasingly difficult for small business owners to survive [1][9] - The era of relying on craftsmanship and reputation has passed, as competition intensifies and consumer behavior shifts towards capital-driven models [1][9] Group 1: Capital Influence - Since 2015, platforms like food delivery and ride-hailing have used aggressive subsidies to eliminate competition, leading to market monopolization [3] - After achieving dominance, capital is now leveraging consumer data as a valuable asset, significantly increasing platform commissions, with reports of commissions reaching as high as 26% for small businesses [3][5] - The high cost of visibility in the market forces small businesses to struggle for attention, often leading to their disappearance [3][5] Group 2: Challenges for Small Businesses - Small business owners face insurmountable challenges as they are unable to compete with larger brands that can afford to dominate search rankings and advertising [5][7] - The financial burden of "traffic rent" and high operational costs makes it nearly impossible for small businesses to thrive, with many resorting to borrowing just to stay afloat [5][7] - The competitive landscape is described as a "war" where small businesses are often left as mere pawns, unable to withstand the pressure from larger, well-funded competitors [7][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing capital-driven competition raises questions about the future viability of small businesses, with many facing bankruptcy despite their efforts [7][9] - The structural changes in the market are not coincidental but rather a result of a deliberate shift in the rules of engagement, leading to widespread anxiety among small business owners [9] - The potential for a turnaround exists, but understanding the harsh realities of the current environment is crucial for preparing for future challenges [9]

Core Insights - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) opened on October 15, showcasing a record number of exhibitors and participants, with over 32,000 companies and 74,600 booths [1] - Didi's ride-hailing service saw significant growth in demand, with a 94% year-on-year increase in orders from inbound users in Guangzhou prior to the fair, and a 140% increase on the opening day compared to last year [1] - The fair has attracted over 240,000 pre-registered buyers from 218 export markets, marking a 10% increase compared to the previous year, with notable growth from the EU, the US, and Belt and Road countries [1] Group 1: Impact on Local Services - The fair has significantly boosted the local travel and hospitality sector, with a 170% increase in search volume for business hotels in the Haizhu District since October 5, and a 40% increase in searches for flights to Guangzhou [2] - To facilitate smooth transportation for international guests, Guangzhou Metro introduced overseas bank card access for seamless entry, and over 2,000 taxis and ride-hailing vehicles are deployed daily around the venue [2] Group 2: Didi's Service Enhancements - Didi has implemented various measures to assist foreign guests, including bilingual volunteers at key transportation hubs and the distribution of bilingual ride-hailing guides [2] - The Didi app supports multiple payment methods, including international credit cards, and features real-time bilingual messaging for better communication between drivers and passengers [3] - Didi plans to continue optimizing its services throughout the fair to enhance the travel experience for both domestic and international exhibitors [3]

Core Points - The article highlights the successful implementation of a "100-day campaign" in Nanjing to establish labor unions for new employment forms, resulting in a significant increase in union membership and services for workers [1][2][3] Group 1: Union Membership Growth - Nanjing has added 30,950 new members to labor unions during the recent campaign, surpassing the initial target of 15,000 [1][2] - The total membership of new employment form workers in Nanjing reached 117,983 as of September 18, 2023, reflecting an increase of 43,908 members since the campaign began [2] - The campaign has led to the establishment of 947 new union organizations across various sectors, including 85 new unions in the express delivery sector and 691 at grassroots levels [2][3] Group 2: Services and Benefits for Workers - New union members are receiving various benefits, including free health check-ups and mutual aid insurance, with a recent case where a delivery worker received 50,000 yuan in aid after an accident [1][2] - The introduction of a "collective registration + QR code membership" system has made it easier for workers to join unions, with many reporting quick and efficient sign-up processes [2] - Specific services such as free health checks and special mutual aid programs for female drivers have been implemented, enhancing the support provided to union members [3] Group 3: Collective Bargaining and Rights Protection - The campaign has also focused on collective bargaining, with new contracts in the express delivery sector that include provisions for reasonable error tolerance and increased heat subsidies [2][4] - Collaborative meetings between drivers and platform representatives have become common, addressing concerns about algorithm transparency and service fees [4] - The establishment of a project-based funding mechanism aims to support union activities and incentivize outstanding drivers, promoting a culture of recognition and reward within the industry [4]

Core Insights - The ride-hailing industry is facing significant challenges, including poor driver-passenger experiences, high commission rates, and increasing competition leading to a vicious cycle of low earnings for drivers and high costs for passengers [1][2][4] Industry Overview - Complaints from consumers about ride-hailing services have surged, highlighting issues such as poor vehicle conditions, lack of air conditioning, and driver fatigue [1] - The number of ride-hailing vehicles in China increased from 2.792 million to 3.206 million in 2024, while the number of licensed drivers rose from 6.572 million to 7.483 million, indicating a saturated market [2] Financial Dynamics - The average hourly income for ride-hailing drivers in 2024 was 27 yuan, a decrease of approximately 12.9% from 31 yuan in 2023, reflecting the financial strain on drivers [2] - High commission rates imposed by platforms are a significant factor contributing to the low profitability for drivers, with many working long hours to make ends meet [1][2] Regulatory Responses - Various local governments have issued warnings about the risks in the ride-hailing market and have temporarily halted the issuance of operating licenses in some cities [3] - Ride-hailing platforms are beginning to lower their commission rates, with T3 Mobility capping its commission at a maximum of 27% and other platforms following suit to share more revenue with drivers [3][5] Market Competition - The introduction of fixed-price and promotional orders has led to increased working hours for drivers, exacerbating the competition and reducing overall income [2][6] - The "one-price" and "promotional orders" models are under scrutiny, with new regulations aimed at curbing these practices to restore fair competition in the market [6][7] Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that ride-hailing platforms need to explore new growth avenues, such as international markets or niche travel segments, to escape the reliance on domestic market competition [4] - The recent regulatory actions against low-price competition may set a precedent for broader platform economy regulations, emphasizing the need for companies to focus on service quality and innovation rather than price wars [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference opened in Beijing, where Cao Cao Mobility announced significant advancements in its Robotaxi fleet, becoming the first platform globally to scale the application of low-orbit satellite communication technology in Robotaxi operations [2][3] - Geely Holding Group's Chairman Li Shufu emphasized the importance of Cao Cao Mobility as the primary commercial vehicle for Robotaxi, enhancing emergency response capabilities and operational safety through stable satellite communication services provided by the Geely constellation [2] - The integration of satellite communication technology allows vehicles to maintain stable connections with the operation center even in areas with unstable 4G/5G signals, significantly improving safety redundancy and operational reliability in various scenarios [2] Company Developments - Cao Cao Mobility's CTO Qiang Qi highlighted that safety is a prerequisite for the commercial deployment of autonomous driving, and the introduction of satellite communication is crucial for building an integrated safety system [3] - The company is accelerating the deployment of the second generation of Robotaxi vehicles and collaborating with Geely and business partners to develop customized vehicles with pre-installed proprietary autonomous driving components and applications [3] - The collaboration reflects the internal ecological synergy within Geely Holding Group, with Space-Time Daoyu's CTO Ding Sheng noting the importance of an integrated information network for smart transportation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Cao Cao Mobility, as the second-largest ride-hailing platform in China, shows significant growth potential and monetization space due to its deep layout in shared mobility and pioneering exploration in autonomous driving technology [1][2] - CITIC Securities predicts that the company's revenue will reach 21.392 billion, 27.091 billion, and 33.845 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.9%, 26.6%, and 24.9% respectively, and expects the company to achieve positive net profit by 2026 [1] - In the Chinese ride-hailing market, Cao Cao Mobility holds a 5.4% market share in 2024, significantly outpacing the industry average growth rate [1] Group 2 - The company has effectively reduced total cost of ownership (TCO) by promoting customized electric vehicles, with the cost per kilometer for electric vehicles at 0.8 yuan, which is 30% lower than traditional fuel vehicles [2] - As of June 2025, Cao Cao Mobility has deployed over 37,000 customized vehicles across 31 cities, with related order GTV reaching 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.7% [2] - The company's gross margin improved from 5.1% in 2024 to 8.4% in the first half of 2025, indicating continuous improvement in profitability [2] Group 3 - In the autonomous driving sector, Cao Cao Mobility has initiated Robotaxi pilot services, starting tests in February 2025, with plans to launch customized vehicles supporting L4-level autonomous driving by the end of 2026 [2] - CITIC Securities believes that the company is building an end-to-end ecosystem of "customized vehicles - intelligent driving systems - service operations," leveraging Geely Group's industry chain experience and its own operational data [2] - The strategic exploration of Cao Cao Mobility in the wave of intelligent and compliant shared mobility may provide an important paradigm for the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has initiated coverage on Cao Cao Mobility (02643) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 73, highlighting the company's significant growth potential and monetization opportunities in the ride-hailing market due to its deep market penetration and advancements in autonomous driving technology [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 213.92 billion, CNY 270.91 billion, and CNY 338.45 billion from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 45.9%, 26.6%, and 24.9% respectively [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached CNY 9.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 53.5% [1] - The gross margin improved from 5.1% in 2024 to 8.4% in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [2] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Cao Cao Mobility holds a 5.4% market share in China's ride-hailing market, ranking second, with growth rates significantly exceeding the industry average [1] - The platform's monthly active driver count reached 554,000 in the first half of 2025, up 53.5% year-on-year, while monthly active users increased to 38.1 million, reflecting a 57.4% growth [1] Group 3: Cost Control and Operational Efficiency - The company has effectively reduced total cost of ownership (TCO) by promoting customized electric vehicles, with the cost per kilometer for electric vehicles at CNY 0.8, which is 30% lower than traditional fuel vehicles [2] - As of June 2025, over 37,000 customized vehicles have been deployed across 31 cities, with related order GTV reaching CNY 2.5 billion, a 34.7% increase year-on-year [2] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Cao Cao Mobility has initiated Robotaxi pilot services and plans to launch customized vehicles supporting Level 4 autonomous driving by the end of 2026 [2] - The company is building an end-to-end ecosystem of "customized vehicles - intelligent driving systems - service operations," leveraging its partnership with Geely Group and its operational data [2] Group 5: Strategic Outlook - The strategic exploration of Cao Cao Mobility in the intelligent and compliant shared mobility market may provide a significant paradigm for the industry [2] - The target price of HKD 73 represents a 51% upside potential from the stock price of HKD 48.32 at the time of the report's release [2]