Core Viewpoint - Lufthansa Group and Air India have signed a memorandum of understanding for future cooperation, aiming to enhance connectivity and customer experience as demand for air travel grows between India and Europe [1] Group 1: Cooperation Details - The existing code-sharing system will be expanded to cover 146 routes across 22 countries and regions [1] - The new cooperation model will allow both airlines to better coordinate flight schedules and route networks, reducing transfer times and improving overall connectivity [1] Group 2: Market Context - India is currently Lufthansa's second-largest long-haul premium market, following the United States, indicating strong growth driven by trade, tourism, and a growing middle class [1] - The cooperation aims to strengthen economic ties between India and the European Union, promoting both passenger and cargo growth [1] - The EU is India's largest trading partner, with bilateral goods trade reaching €180 billion annually, and together they account for a quarter of the global population and GDP [1]

港股晨报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 今日重点 1. 国投证券国际视点 中东战火推升避险情绪，美股深 V 反转现 韧性 1. 国投证券国际视点：中东战火推升避险情绪，美股深 V 反转现韧性 昨日港股三大指数集体下跌。其中，恒生指数跌 2.14%，国企指数跌 1.78%， 恒生科技指数跌 2.89%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易净流入 162.14 亿港 元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是南方恒生科技 3033.HK、 盈富基金 2800.HK、小米集团 1810.HK；净卖出最多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、中 芯国际 981.HK、山东墨龙 568.HK。 板块方面，避险与战略资源领跑赢，能源及国防板块受惠走高，诺斯洛普·格 鲁曼 NOC.US 大涨约 6%，洛克希德·马丁 LMT.US 升逾 3%，埃克森美孚 XOM.US 等能源巨头亦跟随油价上扬。同时，具备充裕现金流的科技巨头发挥避险属性， 英伟达 NVDA.US 与微软 MSFT.US 分别上涨约 3%及 1%。航空与邮轮股因担忧燃 料成本急升而领跌大市。 板块方面，航空板块显着下跌，中国南方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant sell-off in the South Korean and Japanese stock markets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with the KOSPI index experiencing a drop of over 5% and triggering a circuit breaker [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The KOSPI 200 futures index fell by 5%, leading to a 5-minute halt in program trading, while the KOSPI index itself saw a drop exceeding 5% [3]. - Major stocks such as Korean Air and SK Hynix experienced declines of over 7%, with Kia and Hyundai dropping more than 8% [3][4]. - Foreign funds sold a record 6.8 trillion KRW (approximately 32.3 billion RMB) worth of KOSPI constituents on the previous Friday, marking the largest single-day net sell-off in history [4][6]. Group 2: Defense Stocks Performance - In contrast to the overall market decline, defense stocks in South Korea surged, with Hanwha Aerospace rising over 14% and LIG NEX1 increasing by more than 26%, reaching daily limit gains [4]. Group 3: Fund Manager Insights - A senior executive from a major macro hedge fund indicated that the current market environment poses significant challenges for funds heavily invested in Asian equities, which have been seen as a one-way trade [5]. - Fund managers are reassessing their exposure to emerging markets due to the volatility caused by the Middle East situation, with some previously optimistic positions now under scrutiny [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant sell-off in the South Korean and Japanese stock markets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, highlighting the impact on various sectors and investor sentiment [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The South Korean composite index experienced a drop of over 5%, triggering a circuit breaker, while the KOSPI 200 futures fell by 5% during trading [3][4]. - Notable stocks such as Korean Air and Hanmi Semiconductor plummeted by 9%, while Kia and Hyundai saw declines exceeding 8%, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped over 7% [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan also faced a significant decline, falling over 1300 points, representing a drop of 2.35% [4]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign funds recorded a net sell-off of 6.8 trillion KRW (approximately 32.3 billion RMB) in South Korean stocks, marking a historical single-day net sell record [2][6]. - Analysts noted that hedge funds, which had previously invested heavily in Asian markets, are now reassessing their positions due to the geopolitical instability [4][5]. Group 3: Defense Sector Response - In contrast to the overall market decline, South Korean defense stocks surged, with Hanwha Aerospace rising over 14% and LIG NEX1 increasing by more than 26%, reaching daily limit gains [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - The article highlights the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, including drone attacks on the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia, which have contributed to market volatility [8]. - U.S. President Trump's statements regarding potential retaliatory actions against Iran further exacerbate the uncertainty in the markets [8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The company is a leading player in the global emerging market smartphone sector, with a market share exceeding 50% in Africa. It operates three major smartphone brands: TECNO, itel, and Infinix. [1][2] - According to IDC data, the company's global smartphone market share is projected to be 8.6% in 2024, ranking it fourth globally. [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 68.743 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.35%, and a net profit of 5.590 billion yuan, up 0.96% year-on-year. [2][5] Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Position and Growth**: - In Q3 2024, the company's smartphone market share in Africa reached 50%, an increase of approximately 2 percentage points year-on-year. The company has successfully replicated its localized strategy in Africa to achieve leading positions in Pakistan and Bangladesh, contributing to revenue growth from emerging markets. [2][5] - Short-term outlook indicates a positive trend for the smartphone business, aided by declining upstream storage prices and a resolution of patent disputes with Qualcomm. [2][5] 2. **AI Integration and Product Diversification**: - The company is leveraging the AI trend by collaborating with major model and chip manufacturers like Google, Alibaba, and MediaTek to launch AI smartphones and applications. [3][5] - The company is also expanding its product categories beyond smartphones, focusing on digital accessories, home appliances, and energy storage solutions, while actively exploring innovative terminal forms such as AR devices. [3][5] 3. **Market Leadership in Accessories**: - According to Canalys data, the company achieved a 50% market share in TWS (True Wireless Stereo) earphones in Africa in Q3 2024, ranking first in the market. [3][5] Additional Important Information - The company’s strategy emphasizes local market adaptation, which has proven effective in maintaining its competitive edge in emerging markets. [2][5] - The collaboration with major tech firms for AI applications signifies a strategic shift towards integrating advanced technologies into its product offerings, potentially opening new growth avenues. [3][5] - The company’s focus on diversifying its hardware offerings may mitigate risks associated with reliance on smartphone sales alone, especially in fluctuating market conditions. [3][5]

Market Overview - On March 2, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up 0.36% due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which led to a surge in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, pressuring equity markets [1][7] - European markets saw widespread declines, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 both dropping over 2%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down more than 1% [2][7] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up nearly 3%, Oracle over 2%, and Microsoft over 1%. However, Google fell over 1%, and Intel and Amazon saw slight declines [2][7] - Nvidia announced a strategic agreement with Lumentum and Coherent, investing $2 billion in each to accelerate innovation in advanced optical technologies, which will support next-generation AI infrastructure [2][7] Consumer Electronics - Apple launched the new entry-level iPhone 17e and a new iPad Air with the M4 chip, set for pre-order on March 4 and release on March 11. The iPhone 17e offers 256GB and 512GB storage options at prices of 4499 RMB and 6499 RMB, respectively, maintaining the same price for the base model compared to the previous iPhone 16e [3][8] Airline Industry - US airline stocks fell significantly, with American Airlines down over 4%, United Airlines nearly 3%, and Delta Airlines over 2%. A total market capitalization loss of $22.6 billion was reported among 29 major airlines, hotels, and travel companies due to disruptions from the Middle East situation [3][8] - Major international airports, including Dubai and Doha, have been closed for three consecutive days, stranding thousands of travelers. Over 4,000 flights have been canceled globally in the past three days [4][9] Energy Sector - Oil prices surged, with WTI crude up 5.98% to $71.03 per barrel and Brent crude up 7.18% to $78.10 per barrel, driven by concerns over oil supply and transportation risks amid Middle East conflicts [4][9] - Energy stocks saw significant gains, with US energy stocks rising over 7%, and major companies like Murphy Oil and ConocoPhillips also experiencing substantial increases [4][9] Commodity Market - International precious metals futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.68% to $5,335.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 3.95% to $89.61 per ounce. The escalation of the Middle East situation has increased geopolitical risks, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][10]

当地时间3月2日（周一），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.15%，标普500指数涨0.04%，纳指涨0.36%。 中东局势恶化引发油价暴涨、重燃通胀担忧，全球投资者抛售权益资产，股市承压下行。 欧洲市场普遍下跌，德国DAX指数和法国CAC40指数跌幅均超过2%，英国富时100指数跌超1%。 大型科技股多数上涨，英伟达涨近3%，甲骨文涨超2%，微软涨超1%，奈飞、苹果、特斯拉、美光科技、Meta小幅上涨；谷歌跌超1%，英特 尔、亚马逊小幅下跌。 当地时间周一，英伟达在官网宣布，与Lumentum和Coherent达成战略协议，将分别向这两家光学技术公司投资20亿美元。英伟达表示，公司与 Lumentum Holdings Inc.达成多年战略协议，以加速先进光学技术的创新，包括研发，从而实现下一代人工智能（AI）基础设施和系统设计。英 伟达称，与Lumentum的非独家协议包括数十亿美元的采购承诺以及未来先进激光组件的产能使用权。此外，英伟达向后者投资20亿美元，助力 该公司在美国新建晶圆厂。 苹果公司在官网发布了新款入门级智能手机iPhone 17e，以及配备M4芯片的新款iPad Air，拉开了新品发布 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.15% to 48,904.78, while the Nasdaq rose 0.36% to 22,748.86, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.04% to 6,881.62 [1][2] - Concerns over ongoing Middle East conflicts are impacting global trade and inflation, leading to a decline in stock futures by over 1% before the market opened [1] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced a rebound, with Nvidia up 2.93%, Microsoft up 1.48%, and Meta up 0.83%. Apple and Tesla both saw a slight increase of 0.20% following the release of new products, including the iPad Air and iPhone 17e [3][4] - Conversely, Amazon fell by 0.77% and Google dropped by 1.63% [3][4] Defense and Commodity Stocks - Defense stocks received a boost, with Lockheed Martin rising 2.5% and Palantir increasing by 5.6%, as investors shifted towards safer assets amid market uncertainty [5] - Gold and silver prices rose, benefiting mining stocks such as Gold Rush and Barrick Gold, which both saw increases of over 2% [5] Cryptocurrency Stocks - Cryptocurrency-related stocks, including Coinbase and Strategy, rose by over 5% due to a rebound in Bitcoin prices [6] Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly following U.S. military actions against Iran, has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply and increased inflationary pressures [8][9] - Oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 6.28% to $71.23 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 6.68% to $77.74 per barrel [11] Economic Data - The ISM manufacturing index for February fell to 52.4, slightly above expectations, while the final reading for the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing index was revised to 51.6, still below January's 52.4 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the transportation sector, including East China Airlines Logistics, SF Holding, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is evolving towards full-scale conflict, which is expected to drive up oil and shipping prices due to increased risk premiums and potential supply disruptions [7][28]. - The Spring Festival period saw a significant increase in passenger traffic and ticket prices in the civil aviation sector, suggesting a recovery in domestic demand [7][50]. - The adjustment of U.S. tariff policies may lead to improved export performance for Chinese goods to the U.S., enhancing cross-border transportation demand [63]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, is expected to raise oil prices significantly, with Brent crude risk premiums potentially reaching $7-13 per barrel [28][31]. - Historical analysis shows that previous conflicts have led to substantial increases in oil prices and shipping rates, indicating a pattern that may repeat [10][13]. Aviation Sector - During the Spring Festival (February 15-23), the average daily passenger volume reached 2.449 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with average ticket prices rising by 6.6% [7][50]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring ticket price performance as the industry enters a seasonal lull, with expectations of continued demand recovery [59]. Air Cargo - Air cargo rates have shown a year-on-year increase, with the Shanghai Pudong Airport export rate index rising by 7.4% [63]. - The utilization rates of major cargo airlines have decreased due to the Spring Festival, but there is optimism for recovery in demand post-holiday [65][68].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that the A-share tanker sector and COSCO Shipping Energy are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of the current geopolitical tensions, while airlines face significant profit downside risks due to soaring fuel costs [1][3]. Group 1: Tanker Sector and Shipping - The tanker sector and COSCO Shipping Energy are expected to have the largest upside potential among the transportation stocks covered by Goldman Sachs, particularly if Iranian oil sanctions are fully lifted, potentially increasing daily TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) by approximately $30,000 [3][6]. - In the extreme scenario where Iranian oil sanctions are lifted, about 5% of shipping demand could shift from shadow fleets to compliant fleets, leading to a significant increase in tanker demand [6]. - The current geopolitical situation has led to a temporary suppression of tanker shipping demand due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for nearly 40% of global maritime oil trade [5][9]. Group 2: Airline Sector - Airlines, particularly China Southern Airlines, are facing the most significant profit downside risk due to their sensitivity to rising oil prices, with a 1% increase in oil prices potentially leading to a 4.3% decrease in expected profits by 2026 [7]. - Other airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Air China also show notable sensitivity to oil price changes, with expected profit declines of 4.1% and 3.2% respectively for a 1% increase in oil prices [7]. - The container shipping sector is less directly impacted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, as it only carries about 4% of global container trade, but disruptions could still lead to increased freight rates due to port congestion [7]. Group 3: Oil Price Projections - Goldman Sachs provides multiple oil price scenarios, predicting that Brent crude could reach $100 per barrel in extreme situations where oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is significantly reduced [8]. - In a baseline scenario without Iranian supply disruptions, Brent crude is expected to average $60 per barrel in Q4 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027 [8]. - If Iranian supply decreases by approximately 1 million barrels per day, Brent prices could rise to $68 and $72 per barrel in the respective years, reflecting a $7 increase from the baseline [8].