Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]

研究报告 Research Report 17 Aug 2025 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W33 周度趋势解析：海外消费表现优异，新消费主题股价稳健回暖 Week 33 Discretionary Trends: Overseas Consumption Performs Well, New Consumption- Themed Stocks Steadily Recover [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 耐克 | Outperform 德业股份 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the market benchmark [5][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite a challenging environment, key companies like Kweichow Moutai have met their targets for the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued performance in the second half, particularly during the peak sales seasons [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong overseas sales growth for Angel Yeast, projecting continued market share gains and profit elasticity in the second half of 2025 due to a low base effect [3][21]. - The performance of snack companies is mixed, with Wei Long achieving better-than-expected profits while companies like Ganyuan Foods face pressure from rising costs and increased promotional expenses [10][21]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - Kweichow Moutai reported H1 revenue of 910.9 billion yuan and net profit of 454.0 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% and 8.9% respectively, despite pricing pressures [13]. - Chongqing Beer experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit in Q2, with a focus on non-traditional beverage channels to mitigate structural pressures [14]. - Yanjing Beer showed robust growth in its core beer segment, with a significant increase in net profit for H1, driven by product upgrades [15]. - Angel Yeast's overseas sales continued to grow, with Q2 revenue reaching 41.1 billion yuan, marking an 11.2% increase [16]. - Wei Long's H1 revenue was 34.8 billion yuan, with net profit growth of 18.0%, supported by effective cost control measures [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks such as Nongfu Spring and Wei Long, as well as traditional liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, which are expected to recover from recent valuation declines [21][23]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in emerging markets and new channels for companies like Wei Long and Ganyuan Foods, emphasizing the importance of market expansion strategies [21][22]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with overall retail sales growth slowing down, indicating ongoing pressure on consumer demand [21]. - The report notes that the industry is characterized by a significant number of listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 4,871 billion yuan [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company "Hao Xiang Ni" continues to face significant challenges, reporting a net loss of 19.84 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with revenue declining by 15.64% to 689 million yuan, following three consecutive years of losses [2][5]. Financial Performance - Hao Xiang Ni's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 15.64% to 689 million yuan, while the net profit loss reached 19.84 million yuan [2]. - The change in accounting method regarding the investment in "Ming Ming Hen Mang" led to a reduction in investment income by 77.31 million yuan, directly impacting the net profit attributable to the parent company [5][4]. Investment and Accounting Changes - The company changed its accounting method for its investment in "Ming Ming Hen Mang" from equity method to fair value measurement, which significantly affected its financial results [5]. - In December 2023, Hao Xiang Ni invested 700 million yuan to acquire a 6.64% stake in "Ming Ming Hen Mang," but later reduced its stake to 6.2881% and withdrew from the board, necessitating the accounting change [5][4]. Business Challenges - The core business of red dates continues to decline, with revenue from red date products dropping by 16.38% to 500 million yuan and health preservation products declining by 26.13% to 25.81 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [8]. - Despite launching innovative products like "Hong Xiao Pai," which generated nearly 200 million yuan in its first year, the overall performance of the red date product line remains weak [8]. New Product Development - The company has recently entered the craft beer market with a new series of products, including red date-flavored beer, but the impact on overall performance is expected to be minimal as production is outsourced [9]. - The introduction of the "Bao Xi Jiu" series is part of the company's strategy to diversify its product offerings based on consumer demand [9]. Market Position - As of August 15, 2025, Hao Xiang Ni's stock price was 9.68 yuan, with a market capitalization exceeding 4.3 billion yuan [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial struggles of the company "好想你" (Hao Xiang Ni), highlighting a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to changes in accounting methods and ongoing challenges in its core business of red dates [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 15.64% to 689 million yuan, with a net loss of 19.84 million yuan [3]. - The change in accounting method for its investment in "鸣鸣很忙" (Ming Ming Hen Mang) led to a reduction in investment income by 77.31 million yuan, directly impacting the net profit attributable to the parent company [8]. Accounting Method Change - The company switched from equity method to fair value measurement for its investment in "鸣鸣很忙," which resulted in a significant impact on its financial statements [7]. - The decision to change accounting methods was influenced by the company's reduced stake in "鸣鸣很忙" and the withdrawal of its board member position [7]. Core Business Challenges - The core business of red dates continues to face challenges, with revenue from red date products and health preservation products declining by 16.38% and 26.13%, respectively [11]. - Despite attempts to innovate with new products like "红小派" (Hong Xiao Pai), which generated nearly 200 million yuan in its first year, the overall performance of the red date product line remains weak [12][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has ventured into new product categories, including a series of craft beers, but these initiatives are not expected to significantly impact overall performance [13]. - The company’s stock price was reported at 9.68 yuan, with a market capitalization exceeding 4.3 billion yuan as of August 15 [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid expansion of the tea and snack industry in China, driven by low-cost, high-sugar products that have become a significant part of consumer habits, particularly among the youth. This trend raises concerns about public health, particularly regarding diabetes and obesity, as the industry thrives on a "sugar addiction" model that may lead to long-term health costs for society. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The tea and snack industry has seen explosive growth, with brands like Mixue Ice City expanding to over 46,000 stores by the end of 2024, achieving a revenue of 24.83 billion yuan with a growth rate exceeding 22% [9][10] - The "0 yuan purchase" subsidy wars among major delivery platforms have led to increased consumption of sugary drinks, with many consumers unaware of the long-term health implications [2][6] - The rapid expansion of snack stores, such as Wanchen Group, which grew from 7,000 to 15,000 stores in less than a year, highlights the effectiveness of the low-cost, high-volume business model [11][12] Group 2: Health Implications - Excessive sugar intake from beverages and snacks poses significant health risks, including obesity, insulin resistance, and chronic diseases, which are becoming a public health crisis in China [5][35] - The average sugar consumption from tea drinks alone could lead to an additional 1.3 kg of sugar intake per person annually, contributing to rising diabetes rates [19][44] - The prevalence of insulin resistance has increased significantly, with a reported rate of 39.1% among adults, indicating a growing health crisis linked to high sugar consumption [38][42] Group 3: Economic and Social Costs - The healthcare costs associated with diabetes and related diseases are projected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting the financial burden on the healthcare system due to rising sugar consumption [45][49] - The rapid growth of the tea and snack industry, while profitable for companies, is shifting health costs to the public healthcare system, creating a hidden burden on society [49][50] - The government's initiatives to manage weight and reduce sugar intake highlight the urgent need for intervention in the face of rising obesity rates and related health issues [41][60] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The addictive nature of sugary products drives high-frequency consumption, particularly among young consumers, who are often unaware of the health risks associated with their habits [22][26] - The industry's focus on low prices and high availability has led to a significant shift in consumer behavior, with many opting for sugary drinks as a primary source of refreshment [31][32] - Despite some brands attempting to reduce sugar content, consumer preferences for sweet flavors complicate efforts to promote healthier options [51][52]

Core Insights - The leading snack brand, Hao Xiang Lai, has successfully entered the Taobao Flash Purchase platform, significantly increasing its market reach and sales volume [1][4] - The brand has experienced over 200% growth in order volume for three consecutive months, with online sales of various snack categories reaching new highs [1][4] - The expansion into the 3-5 kilometer market has allowed Hao Xiang Lai to tap into new customer segments, with over 90% of online customers being new users [1][3] Group 1 - Hao Xiang Lai's entry into Taobao Flash Purchase has led to nearly 5,000 stores being connected by the end of July [1] - The brand has optimized its product structure and warehousing strategies to match the instant retail consumption characteristics, with each store offering an average of 1,500 to 2,000 SKUs [3] - Seasonal promotions and scenario-based product combinations have been introduced, such as summer drink packages and autumn snack gift boxes, enhancing conversion rates and brand recognition [3] Group 2 - The rapid development of Taobao Flash Purchase has created significant growth opportunities for brands, with plans for over 15,000 stores to join the platform, covering a wider range of snack categories [4] - The collective entry of snack brands into Taobao Flash Purchase has stimulated demand for leisure snacks, with July seeing triple-digit growth in various snack categories [4] - Since its launch in May, Taobao Flash Purchase has driven a significant upgrade in the consumer platform, with 395 non-food brands achieving over one million in monthly transactions [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [57]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is experiencing accelerated clearance, while consumer goods are focusing on segments with strong demand [52]. - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 1.06% from August 1 to August 14, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.33 percentage points [14][15]. - The report indicates that about 69% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Gui Fa Xiang (+40.38%) and Zi Yan Food (+13.31%) [19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 1.06% compared to a 2.39% increase in the CSI 300 index [14]. - Most sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the baking sector showing the highest increase of 3.55%, while the dairy sector had the largest decline of -0.98% [15]. Industry Data Tracking Liquor Sector - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [52]. - The report notes that the second quarter's performance in the liquor sector is under pressure due to ongoing challenges in consumption scenarios [52]. Seasonality and Consumer Goods - The report anticipates a boost in demand for beer and soft drinks as the consumption peak season approaches [52]. - The introduction of a childcare subsidy starting January 1, 2025, is expected to enhance dairy product demand [52]. Price Trends - As of August 14, 2025, the price of fresh milk was 3.02 yuan per kilogram, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.01 yuan [40]. - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.23 yuan per kilogram, down 0.22 yuan from the previous month [42]. Important News - The report mentions that the national liquor price index remained stable in July, with a slight decrease in early August [45][46]. - Qingdao's beer production increased by 2.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating a positive trend in the beer sector [47]. Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a share buyback plan, having repurchased 6.96 million shares by early August 2025 [48]. - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 8.558 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.37% [51].

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.82% during the week of August 11 to August 15, 2025, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index also rising by 0.82% [1] - The top five performing stocks in the food and beverage sector were Guifaxiang, Angel Yeast, Tianwei Food, Gujing Gongjiu, and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Institutional Insights - Guizhou Moutai is facing short-term demand pressure in the liquor market but is committed to deepening reform and focusing on sustainable development, with an increased dividend payout ratio [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu is also experiencing short-term demand challenges but has strong medium-term growth potential due to product upgrades and accelerated national expansion [2] - Ximai Food is seeing stable growth in its oat business, with improvements in raw material costs expected to enhance profitability [2] - Wancheng Group is expanding its snack retail operations and introducing new discount supermarket formats targeting young consumers [2] - Bairun Co. is witnessing an improvement in its pre-mixed cocktails segment, with a focus on enhancing cash flow from new products [2] Macro Events - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported a 0.57% defect rate in beverage products from 111,900 batches tested, indicating overall good quality and safety in the beverage sector [4] Global Food Prices - The FAO reported that global food prices reached a two-year high in July 2025, driven by rising meat and vegetable oil prices, with the FAO Food Price Index averaging 130.1 points, up 1.6% from June [5] Industry Trends - There is a growing divergence in views among public and private equity institutions regarding traditional consumer stocks, with some seeing potential for valuation recovery [7] - Major liquor brands are shifting towards lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao introducing new low-alcohol offerings [10] Company Developments - Guizhou Moutai reported a net profit of 45.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.89%, with total revenue reaching 91.09 billion yuan, up 9.16% [11] - Moutai's new product, the "Moutai Five-Star 70th Anniversary Commemorative Wine," has seen significant market speculation, with prices on secondary markets soaring [12] - Moutai has announced a partnership with Meituan Flash Purchase to enhance consumer access to its products through certified stores [13]

Core Insights - The leading brand in the bulk snack industry, "好想来," has successfully entered the Taobao Flash Purchase platform, significantly increasing its market reach and sales volume [1][4] - The brand has experienced over 200% growth in order volume for three consecutive months since joining the platform, with online new customer acquisition exceeding 90% [1][4] Group 1: Market Expansion - "好想来" has integrated nearly 5,000 stores into Taobao Flash Purchase by the end of July, effectively tapping into a new market within a 3-5 kilometer radius [1][3] - The platform has allowed "好想来" to reach new users beyond the traditional 1-2 kilometer range, enhancing customer base expansion and channel upgrades [3][4] Group 2: Product Strategy - The company has optimized its product structure and warehousing strategy to align with instant retail consumption patterns, offering an average of 1,500-2,000 SKUs per store [3][4] - Seasonal and scenario-based product offerings have been introduced, such as summer ice cream combinations and autumn snack gift boxes, which have boosted conversion rates and brand recognition [3][4] Group 3: Sales Performance - Since the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase, there has been a three-digit growth in orders for various snack categories, including processed foods, snacks, and desserts [4] - The platform has enabled 395 non-food brands to achieve monthly sales exceeding one million, with 66 brands surpassing ten million, indicating a robust growth environment for snack brands [4]