早在1 9世纪中期，法国经济学家巴斯夏提出了著名的"无效铁轨理论"：在法国和西班牙之间 课征关税，将抵消法国和西班牙之间修建铁路而降低贸易成本的利益，在本质上是毫无意义 的。 同样在1 9世纪的1 8 4 1年，德国著名思想家弗里德里希·李斯特，这位保守的德国民族主义经济 学家也认识到，无论要征收何种关税，都应当适度，不要使进口和消费因此而受限制，否 则，不但国内的生产能力将受到削弱，而且增加税收的目的也将受挫。 近两百年来，从亚当·斯密到李嘉图，从弗里德曼到克鲁格曼，几乎每一代的经济学家，无不 强调自由贸易对世界经济发展的重要性，作为经济史教授的美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特对此 自然非常清楚，然而现在世界看到的是，政治立场表态已经超越了专业与科学精神。 然而这种关税讹诈，会得逞吗？会让美国实现制造业回流吗？一国的经济发展，本质上来 说，主要依靠全要素生产率的提升。那么滥施关税，对提升全要素生产率有帮助吗？ 作 者丨 黄智文（资深财税研究学者） 编 辑丨洪晓文 今年4月份以来，美国对各国使出了极限的关税讹诈大棒。这种极限的关税讹诈必将损人害 己，这早已被理论和实证所证明。 2 0 1 6年，法国著名经济学家、哈 ...

中国网友休闲娱乐有两项热门活动： 一是去拼多多逛评论区；二是去直播间买怪东西。 2024年一位博主发现，自己88岁的姥姥在拼多多写了978条评价，有4.6万浏览量。姥姥给每个包裹认真写评 语：桃子有点小，不太甜，给三星；衣服已收到，穿着非常合适。 | | | 雷犬 Raidog | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 喜欢看拼多多评价的原因之一就是有各种中 | | | | | 老年人写得很认真的实评 2024-07-07 回复 | | | | | ♡ / 红薯 5FC6DFDF | | | | | 是的一评价大部分都很真实,而且有 | 5/52 | | | | 的还会有好多人捧场夸夸 hh 很可爱 | | | | | 2024-07-07 回复 | | | | | 展开 77 条回复 | | | | | 朋克小猫 | | | | | 我爷爷也是!每次买完东西写评价 他还会给 | | | | | 客服说谢谢小同志 @ 2024-07-07 回复 | | | | | 爱跳舞的怡然律师 作者 | | | | | 哈哈哈真的超可爱 2024-07-07 回复 | | | | | 展开 ...

Industry Overview - Recent policies indicate a focus on supply-side reforms addressing "structural contradictions in key industries" rather than "overcapacity" issues[10] - The majority of industries in China face structural issues characterized by excess low-end capacity and insufficient high-end capacity[11] Capacity Utilization - As of Q4 2024, the industrial capacity utilization rate is at 65.9%, indicating that overcapacity is concentrated in specific industries[18] - Industries potentially facing overcapacity include non-metallic minerals, black metals, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, automotive manufacturing, petroleum and coal, specialized equipment, food manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals[37] Types of Overcapacity - Overcapacity can be categorized into frictional, cyclical, and structural types, with structural overcapacity being the most persistent and challenging to resolve[3] - Structural overcapacity is characterized by the coexistence of low-end overcapacity and high-end capacity shortages, often requiring government intervention for resolution[38] Key Industries Affected - The steel and cement industries are experiencing both cyclical and structural overcapacity due to a downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a projected reduction in steel production by 30-50 million tons[41] - Emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries are facing frictional and structural overcapacity due to rapid technological advancements and local government competition[59] Policy Recommendations - The government aims to guide the orderly exit of inefficient capacity through supply-side reforms, focusing on both eliminating low-end capacity and expanding high-end supply[40] - Effective market mechanisms and government actions are necessary to address the "involution" competition in emerging industries, including the implementation of fair competition regulations[65] Risk Factors - Risks include the potential for slower-than-expected capacity elimination, a more severe downturn in the real estate market, and unexpected declines in exports[5]

点击上图▲立即报名 文 / 巴九灵（微信公众号： 吴晓波频道） 2月28日，比亚迪与其合作伙伴阿斯塔纳汽车公司在哈萨克斯坦阿拉木图举行产品发布会，正式进军哈萨克斯坦汽车市场。 继去年乌兹别克斯坦工厂投产宋PLUS DM-i和驱逐舰05后，中国新能源车正疾驰在中亚街头，甚至成为当地精英阶层的身份标签。如今行走在 乌兹别克斯坦的街道，随处可见中国新能源汽车的身影。 中亚班列满载来自成都的二手车驶向财富蓝海；拼多多单日在哈萨克斯坦斩获20万订单；进出口贸易商通过跨市场赚取3倍价差……这片被低估 的新丝路腹地，正被中国企业的商业嗅觉点燃，越来越多中国企业在中亚大陆落地生根， 默默创造着令人瞩目的商业成就。 并不起眼的中亚，还潜藏着怎样的商机？当前中国企业出海中亚如何布局？ 2025年4月20日—4月25日，我们诚邀企业家们与我们一同踏上中亚之旅，深入哈萨克斯坦与乌兹别克斯坦， 一同看见今日中亚，探索商业机 遇，在未被开垦的财富荒漠中挖掘潜力。 乌兹别克斯坦：错位时空的新蓝海 乌兹别克斯坦的城镇化快速推进，房地产市场成为一片待掘的"中亚金矿"。 预计2025年，乌兹别克斯坦城镇化率已接近40%，过去十年间，城镇人口以年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new energy series "Yueyi" by FAW Bestune marks a significant strategic move towards embracing user needs and participating in the new energy wave, with the first model, the electric SUV Yueyi 03, officially released [2] Group 1: Product Launch and Strategy - The Yueyi series aims to provide "affordable high-quality new energy vehicles" to consumers, focusing on creating a friendly, relaxed, stylish, and vibrant car ownership experience [2] - The series is built on FAW Bestune's latest technological achievements, utilizing the Yuying platform and featuring various powertrain options including pure electric, hybrid, and range-extended technologies [2] - The Yueyi series incorporates an AI OS system developed in-house, enhancing user experience through seamless integration of cloud and device [2] Group 2: Future Product Plans - Over the next two years, the Yueyi series plans to launch six models, forming a product matrix categorized into E, P, and R series, covering A0 to B-class vehicles [3] - The E series targets urban users with global premium vehicles, promising benefits such as 10% more utility, energy savings, and spaciousness [3] - The P series focuses on hybrid vehicles for family use, offering extended range, efficiency, and performance [3] - The R series is positioned as a technology flagship, with the first model, Yueyi 08, set to be announced at the Shanghai Auto Show in April [3]

近年来，作为造车新势力的领军者，蔚来汽车在销量数据上屡创佳绩，交付数字不断刷新纪录；但与此同时， 2024 年，蔚来全年净亏损高达 224 亿元，创 下历史新高，每卖出一辆车就亏损 10 万元人民币（ 2024 年第四季度达到了 71 亿元）。不断攀升的债务负担以及紧张的现金流状况，正令这家科技感十足 的电动车企业陷入前所未有的财务困境。 虽然目前现金储备高达 419 亿元，看似充足，但是蔚来一年内还需要还短期借款 57 亿、应付贸易款项及应付票据（供应商欠款） 344 亿、长期借款（一年 内需要还的部分） 34 亿、应计费用及其他负债 160 亿。 算上这些后，如果没有外部融资，储备现金很难撑过一年。过去几年不断的外部投资者的注资， 对蔚来业绩毫无改善，也将加剧蔚来后续融资的难度。 而作为蔚来 " 下沉战略 " 的关键战役 —— 起售价 20.69 万元的乐道 L60 ， 2025 年 1 月交付 5912 辆， 2 月交付 4049 辆， 3 月预期 5000 辆。距离此前目 标的 "1-2 月会往 1 万 5 、 2 万辆去爬， 3 月份交付 2 万辆 " ，相差甚远。这个数字让蔚来再次陷入被动。 此前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric power equipment and new energy sector, including CATL, Keda, and others [5]. Core Insights - BYD launched the Super e-platform, featuring a new fast-charging battery that reduces internal resistance by 50%, achieving a maximum charging power of 1000kW and a charging speed of 2 km per second [2][12]. - The new platform also includes the world's first mass-produced 30,000 RPM motor, enhancing power density and performance [2][16]. - In the first two months of 2025, solar power installations reached 39.47GW, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [3][32]. - The inverter exports in January-February 2025 totaled 7.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24% [3][33]. - The total investment in power grid projects in January-February 2025 was 43.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% [4]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - BYD's Super e-platform features a fast-charging battery and a high-speed motor, significantly improving charging efficiency and vehicle performance [11][19]. - The platform's charging capability allows for a range of 400 km with just 5 minutes of charging [11][19]. New Energy Generation - The solar power sector saw a total of 39.47GW of new installations in the first two months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [3][32]. - Inverter exports showed steady growth, with a total of 7.669 billion yuan in exports during the same period [3][33]. Power Equipment and Automation - The investment in power grid projects reached 43.6 billion yuan in January-February 2025, marking a 33.5% increase compared to the previous year [4]. - The overall electricity consumption in February 2025 was 743.4 billion kWh, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth [4]. Market Performance - The electric power equipment and new energy sector experienced a decline of 1.72% in the week of March 17-21, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [1].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the US stock market, predicting continued volatility and a downward trend until late March or early April 2025, with a focus on sectors such as healthcare, consumer services, traditional telecommunications, and utilities [6][14]. Core Insights - The US stock market is facing significant pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and economic indicators that have fallen short of expectations, leading to a potential rotation of funds out of the market [6][14]. - The report highlights the resilience of the US labor market, as indicated by an increase in job vacancies and resignation rates, which may alleviate recession fears [6][26]. - The copper industry is expected to see price increases due to anticipated tariffs on imports, which could create supply shortages in the US market [14][26]. - The pharmaceutical sector is poised for valuation recovery, supported by government policies aimed at optimizing drug pricing and promoting innovative drug development [14][19]. Summary by Sections US Market Dynamics - The US stock market has retraced all gains since the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2024, with consumer discretionary and industrial sectors facing significant impacts from tariff uncertainties [6][14]. - Major US indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 1.14% and the S&P 500 down 0.76% [8][10]. European Market Dynamics - European markets also faced declines, with the Stoxx 600 index down 1.7%, driven by concerns over economic growth and tariff announcements from the US [10][14]. Asian Market Dynamics - The Asian markets showed mixed results, with the Thai market gaining 0.9%, while other markets like the Philippines and Singapore experienced declines [21][22]. Sector Performance - In the US, the industrial sector was notably affected by tariff announcements, leading to a 1.54% drop in the industrial index [10][14]. - In the Hong Kong market, sectors such as consumer goods and technology showed positive performance, with notable gains in companies like China Resources Beverage [10][11]. Individual Company Insights - Snowflake reported better-than-expected revenue performance, with AI products contributing to growth, and the company is viewed positively for its long-term investment potential [8][19]. - The copper sector is recommended for investment due to expected price increases driven by tariff-related supply constraints, with specific companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum highlighted [14][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind energy, indicating strong recovery potential in profitability and pricing dynamics [1][6][9]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the development of the renewable energy industry, addressing issues such as "internal competition," the construction of "Shagora" renewable energy bases, and the development of offshore wind power for the first time [1][6][9]. - The solar industry is experiencing a significant recovery in both volume and price, with expectations for continued upward trends in glass and battery cell profitability [1][6][9]. - The wind energy sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing project profitability, particularly in offshore wind projects [1][6][9]. - The electric grid sector is witnessing a surge in demand for high-voltage equipment, with significant increases in tender amounts for transmission and transformation equipment [1][6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Solar & Energy Storage - The government work report highlights the importance of the renewable energy sector, with new initiatives aimed at addressing structural issues and enhancing supply and demand dynamics [1][6]. - The solar industry is seeing a strong recovery in production and pricing, with expectations for increased output in March [1][6]. - Key components such as glass and battery cells are identified as having the best potential for profitability recovery [1][6]. Wind Energy - The government work report's focus on offshore wind development marks a significant policy shift, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][6]. - The report anticipates a return to reasonable pricing levels for wind turbines, driven by policy guidance and market demand [1][6]. Electric Grid - The report notes a record high in tender amounts for grid equipment, with a total of 152 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [1][6]. - The demand for high-voltage products is surging, with specific tenders for 750kV equipment showing substantial growth [1][6]. New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates that the overall sales performance of new energy vehicles in February met expectations, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales [2][12][16]. - The introduction of new models, such as the Galaxy E8 and the Wanjie M8, is expected to enhance market competitiveness [12][13]. Lithium Batteries - The report highlights the impact of increased tariffs on lithium batteries, raising the effective tax rate to approximately 50%, which may affect trade dynamics [2][16]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The establishment of a significant venture capital fund for hydrogen energy is expected to attract substantial investment, enhancing the industry's long-term growth prospects [2][10]. - Policy proposals from the recent national congress indicate a shift towards cost reduction and demand expansion in the hydrogen sector [2][10].

— ●●●● — 投资要点 — ●●●● — 回顾：前瞻性提醒——中国股市主升浪确立后，有波折，建议保持多头思维、逐浪前行。 去年 9 月底我们提示《做多中国：反转逻 辑》。去年 12 月初发布报告《革新巳火》判断蛇年行情起火、革新牛是基本面的核心基础。今年 1 月市场下跌时旗帜鲜明地表示， 当大家都放弃牛市思维时，春节前后将迎来主升浪。 1 月中旬发布报告《又到流泪撒种》。 2 月 17 日发布报告《逐浪前行："革新 牛"主升浪下的轮动和波动》指出：中国牛市的主升浪已然确立，将以"科技牛"为主，虽有波折，但震荡向上。 行情本质："科技突破"确立了牛市行情的主升浪、主心骨 —— 基本面逻辑确立：科技牛市。 此轮牛市从 2024 年" 924 "会议之后启动，经历了四季度的波折，而 2025 年初以 DeepSeek 所代 表的 AI 科技突破以及机器人等领域的进展，为这轮牛市找到了基本面逻辑——技术突破驱动的科技牛市。以史为鉴，行情或将持续数年。 1 ） 互联网 1.0 时代：互联网渗透率快速提升，科技革命浪潮驱动纳斯达克牛市持续数年。 1995 年当美国互联网渗透率突破 10% 的关 键节点后快速上升， 2 ...