Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but limited operability in the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are supported by certain factors. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including temporary observation, being bullish on certain commodities, and looking for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase. It may continue range - bound. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the market. As of November 20, national cumulative processed lint was 4631000 tons, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. Cotton yarn market trading was weak. Suggestion: temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the second half of October was bearish. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started the new season with good production expectations. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were high, with supply pressure. The market focus shifts to the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. In Shandong, apple acquisition is almost over. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifts to sales expectations. Due to high acquisition prices and poor apple quality, there is a high sentiment of reluctance to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Pay attention to de - stocking [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices rose slightly, 20 - day rubber IR and butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated. Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but Yunnan in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. Domestic tire operating rate decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 468900 tons. Suggestion: RU is bullish, NR and BR should be observed, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices declined slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, up 3.0% from the previous period. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed. Suggestion: temporarily observe [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, while domestic spot prices were weak. Traders' import willingness declined. Port outbound volume is over 60000 cubic meters, and inventory is low. Suggestion: temporarily observe [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn price has declined, and the yield per unit will continue to be adjusted downward, but the production remains high, with the US corn expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2,135 yuan. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 1.109 million tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week, a monthly decline of 1.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] - The trading strategy suggests that the US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. Short - sell the 01 corn futures contract on rebounds, and wait for the 05 corn futures contract. Try to narrow the price difference between the 01 corn and starch futures contracts when it is high. [7][8] - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 futures contracts have increased, with price increases of 25, 12, 9, 23, 21, and 8 respectively, and price increase rates of 1.13%, 0.53%, 0.39%, 0.91%, 0.81%, and 0.30% respectively. The trading volumes of C2601, C2605, and CS2601 have decreased, with decreases of 2.88%, 2.61%, and 1.91% respectively, while the trading volumes of C2509, CS2605, and CS2509 have increased, with increases of 21.45%, 166.65%, and 137.37% respectively. The open interests of all contracts have increased, with increases ranging from 2.03% to 5.54%. [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in various regions have different degrees of increase, with the largest increase of 40 yuan in Nantong Port. The basis of corn in different regions ranges from - 288 to 117 yuan. The spot prices of starch in various regions are stable, and the basis of starch ranges from 81 to 301 yuan. [1] - **Price Differences**: Among the corn inter - delivery price differences, C01 - C05 is - 44 with a 13 - yuan increase, C05 - C09 is - 19 with a 3 - yuan increase, and C09 - C01 is 63 with a 16 - yuan decrease. Among the starch inter - delivery price differences, CS01 - CS05 is - 64 with a 2 - yuan increase, CS05 - CS09 is - 32 with a 13 - yuan increase, and CS09 - CS01 is 96 with a 15 - yuan decrease. Among the cross - variety price differences, CS09 - C09 is 348 with a 1 - yuan decrease, CS01 - C01 is 315 with a 2 - yuan decrease, and CS05 - C05 is 335 with a 9 - yuan increase. [1] Part 2: Market Outlook - **Corn**: The US corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The import profit of foreign corn has decreased. The ex - warehouse price at northern ports has risen, and the Northeast corn spot price is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong. The price of wheat in North China has fallen, and corn has a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The short - term corn spot price is relatively strong, but there are concerns about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn and downstream inventory - building. [3][5] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also strong. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is strong, and enterprises are still highly profitable. However, the North China corn price may fall in December, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The short - term rebound space of the 01 starch futures contract is limited. [6] Part 3: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. The closing prices of C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE have decreased by 1.0. [10] Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 1 - 5 price difference, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract price difference. [12][14][19]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic futures contracts**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3021, the highest price was 3027, the lowest price was 3007, the closing price was 3012, down 1 or -0.03%, with a trading volume of 677,574 and an open interest of 1,511,379, a decrease of 37,971. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 2988, down 5 or -0.17%. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2803, down 7 or -0.25% [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contract was weak, with the main contract at 1140 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report slightly lowered the ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The NOPA's October crushing data was much higher than expected, reaching a record high for a single - month [6]. Core View - The external market has exhausted its short - term bullish factors but is supported by low inventory. It may oscillate at a high level. Domestic soybean meal has a relatively solid support below but faces inventory pressure. To break through the upper resistance, it needs additional bullish factors from the external market [6]. Operation Suggestions - In the near term, the volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle double - selling strategy [6]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, and the 2026 export volume would reach 111 million tons [10].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Corn Series Data Daily Report [3] - Researcher: Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price and Data Information Spot Prices - Corn Spot: Prices in various regions on November 21st remained mostly stable, with some exceptions like Inner Mongolia - Tongliao up 20 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia - Chifeng up 30 yuan/ton. For example, Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2220 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang - Harbin was 2030 yuan/ton [5]. - Corn Starch Spot: The price in Jilin Province was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Wheat Spot: Prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2534 yuan/ton, 2518 yuan/ton, and 2525 yuan/ton respectively, with Jiangsu up 2 yuan/ton [5]. Futures Prices - Corn Main Contract Closing Price: 2241 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a C01 - 05 spread of -57 [5]. - Corn Starch Main Contract Closing Price: 2590 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan, with a CS01 - 05 spread of -66 [5]. International Data - US Corn Closing Price: 437.75 cents per bushel, with an imported US corn duty - paid price of 2149.25 yuan/ton and an estimated profit of 220.75 yuan/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [5]. Spread Data - Starch - Corn (Main Continuous): 349; Starch - Corn (Jilin Spot Average): 440 [5]. Inventory Data - North Port Corn Inventory: 117.0 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Domestic: 27.3 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - Northeast: 177.5 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Foreign: 35.5 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - North China: 75.4 million tons [5] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure later, with attention on the selling pressure from December to January. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the yield per unit is good, and a bumper harvest is expected. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, and the supply of imported grains is shrinking [5]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Enterprises with low inventory have a rigid demand for replenishing corn, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs. Channel traders have a strong purchasing willingness [5]. Inventory - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, while the corn inventory at South Ports is rising. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory is increasing. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventory is low, and deep - processing corn is seasonally accumulating inventory [5]. Group 4: Core View - In the short term, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tension in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory lead to a temporary supply shortage, postponing the selling pressure. Before the supply pressure is fully released, the market's ability to accept high - priced corn is limited. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and will face pressure tests later. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, logistics, and weather [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - The overall situation of the commodity futures agricultural products sector is under pressure, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillating trend [5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal inventory is high. The high oil mill operating rate weakens cost support. The market doubts China's ability to complete the 12 - million - ton US soybean procurement target by the end of the year, and the strong expected South American soybean harvest weakens the cost support of US soybean futures for domestic soybeans. There are dual pressures of supply surplus and weak demand. Although the arbitrage of buying oil and selling meal provides temporary support, the key support at 3000 yuan/ton is crucial, and if broken, the downside space will open [5] For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm oil futures are dragged down by external edible oil markets and volatile crude oil prices. Weak export data and the expected inventory build - up in November add short - term inventory pressure. Its trend is closely linked to US soybean oil and the international oil and fat sector, and the biodiesel policy is a key variable [7] For Other Varieties (Brief Summary) - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Influenced by US soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, major producers' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT soybean January contract rose 4 to close at 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to close at 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 80 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 3.09% decrease [4][7]. - The higher - than - expected soybean crushing volume in the US in October and optimistic export expectations led to a significant strengthening of the outer market at the beginning of the week. As private exporters reported continuous purchases of US soybeans by China, with a cumulative purchase volume of 1.584 million tons during the week, the export expectations were fulfilled and US soybeans declined. The import cost dropped, the spot supply was sufficient, the previously worried about long - term supply gap was filled, downstream buyers purchased a large number of long - term basis contracts, and the Dalian soybean meal futures prices declined from high levels. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of seasonal demand and declined during the week [4][7]. - Precipitation increased in the central and western regions of Brazil, which was beneficial for improving soil moisture; the Argentine产区 was relatively dry, which was conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture was acceptable. Positive expectations for South American crop yields were maintained. Last week, private exporters reported a total of 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China, effectively supplementing the domestic soybean supply for the December - January shipping period. The trading volume of long - term basis contracts increased. With lower costs, sufficient spot supply, and alleviated concerns about long - term supply, soybean meal prices declined from high levels. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 4 to 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 10 to 491 dollars per ton, a 2.00% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 3 to 497 dollars per ton, a 0.60% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market increased 204.75 to 47.01 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 21 to 581 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price fell 40 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 1.32% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 30 to - 22 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Market**: The US soybean harvest rate as of November 16, 2025, was 95%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 96%. Private exporters reported 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China for the 2025/2026 market year. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 year as of October 2 was 919,400 tons, in line with expectations. The US soybean crushing gross profit in the week of November 14, 2025, was 2.81 dollars per bushel, up from 2.02 dollars per bushel the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 338.4 dollars per short ton, up from 322.08 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.58 cents per pound, up from 48.02 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.15 dollars per bushel, up from 11.14 dollars per bushel the previous week. In October, the US soybean crushing volume was 227.647 million bushels, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, also breaking the monthly crushing record set in December 2024. As of October 31, the NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory rose to 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [8][9]. - **South American Market**: As of November 15, 2025, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 69% (Conab data), and 71% (AgRural data), but lagging behind last year's 80% due to irregular rainfall. Brazil is expected to export 4.71 million tons of soybeans in November, up from 4.26 million tons the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 24.6%. In the next 15 days, precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, but the increase in precipitation in the central and western regions is beneficial for soil moisture; precipitation in Argentina will decrease in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture is sufficient [10]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 142,400 tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.1711 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous week but an increase of 214,300 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.3507 million tons, a decrease of 650,800 tons from the previous week but an increase of 965,400 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.926 million tons, a decrease of 408,000 tons from the previous week but an increase of 3.0947 million tons from the same period last year. As of November 21, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 242,600 tons, including 70,960 tons of spot trading and 171,640 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 222,860 tons the previous week; the daily average soybean meal pickup volume was 190,360 tons, up from 183,700 tons the previous week; the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.98 days, up from 7.74 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Secex reported that Brazil exported 2.3021241 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 230,212.4 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average export volume in November last year. The total export volume in November last year was 2.5530339 million tons [13]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be a record - high 177.7 million tons (previously estimated at 178.5 million tons), higher than 172.1 million tons in the previous year. The soybean crushing volume in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 58.5 million tons in the previous year. The Brazilian soybean export volume in 2026 is expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 109 million tons in 2025 [13]. - As of November 17, the soybean sowing rate in Paraná state was 92%, up 6 percentage points from the previous week but lower than 96% last year. The growth of soybeans improved slightly, with 92% of the evaluated areas in good condition. According to the latest estimate, the soybean harvest in Paraná state in the 2025/2026 season is estimated to be 21.96 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [14]. - As of November 16, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 year were 1.08 million tons, compared with 1.32 million tons last year; soybean imports were 4.4 million tons, compared with 5.25 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.74 million tons, compared with 7.37 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 1.4 million tons, compared with 2.44 million tons last year [14]. - S&P Global Energy predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would be reduced by 3.8% compared with 2025 to 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres; the soybean planting area would be increased by 4% to 84.5 million acres, an increase of 3.4 million acres [15]. - Safras& Mercado estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be 178.76 million tons, a reduction of more than 2 million tons from the September forecast. The soybean production is still expected to reach a record high, a 4% increase from the previous year. In Tocantins state, the yield potential decreased from 3800 kg/ha to 3660 kg/ha, with an expected output of about 5.7 million tons. In Paraná state, due to adverse weather conditions such as tornadoes, the production estimate was adjusted to 21.7 million tons, still higher than the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares [15]. - As of November 12, Argentine farmers sold 533,500 tons of 2024/2025 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 39.3662 million tons [16]. - The soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, "steadily" advanced last week, reaching 43% of the estimated planting area, but still lagging behind last year and the five - year average [16]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of US soybean futures contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional soybean crushing profits, management fund CBOT net positions, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal spot - futures price differences, soybean meal 1 - 5 month spread, South American soybean产区 precipitation and temperature, Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing progress, US soybean sales and export volume, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal trading and pickup volume, port and oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [17 - 47].

Core Viewpoint - The corn futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with a weekly increase of 0.60% in prices, while supply pressures are gradually easing due to consumption of existing stocks [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main corn futures contract closed at 2195 CNY/ton, with a weekly trading range between 2162 CNY/ton and 2205 CNY/ton, and an increase in open interest by 2138 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly opening price was 2188 CNY/ton, indicating a stable trading environment [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA reported net corn export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year at 2.2597 million tons, a significant increase from the previous week's 1.3948 million tons [2] - National corn inventory among 96 major processing enterprises was recorded at 2.727 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.29% [2] - The corn prices in the Bayuquan Port region for new corn with 15% moisture content ranged from 2170 to 2175 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day [2] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted that while supply pressures are easing, the fourth quarter's supply capacity remains sufficient, and the market is observing the selling sentiment among farmers [3] - Dongwu Futures highlighted that feed enterprises are experiencing low inventory levels, which, combined with strong demand from downstream sectors, is leading to a tightening supply situation and a rebound in spot prices [3] - The overall grain selling progress is at 22%, which is faster than the same period last year, indicating a robust selling pace [3]

2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 8 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 13 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 19 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 26 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 33 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：市场担忧马来四季度产量仍大，同时缺乏 B50 和美豆油的有效需求故事，周度仍维持震荡运 行，但随着高频数据的逐步公布有二次下探趋势，棕榈油 01 合约周跌 ...

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.09% to 30.1329 points, with a cumulative decline of 0.61% for the week [1] Summary by Category Corn - CBOT corn futures remained flat at $4.3775 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 1.41% for the week [1] Wheat - CBOT wheat futures rose by 0.28% to $5.4225 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.14% for the week [1] Soybeans - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.36% to $11.2650 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.18% for the week [1] - Soymeal futures experienced a cumulative decline of 1.48%, while soybean oil futures saw a cumulative increase of 0.24% [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | 短线整理 | | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | ★ | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高。11 月 22 日新沙港将有一 | | 短线止跌整理 | | 船澳籽到港。对市场情绪偏利空。但盘面上，菜粕在跌至现货价格之下，短空获利 | | ★ | | 了结，菜粕隔夜反弹。考虑进口供应偏低，现货降价去库行为，菜粕有止跌整理反 | | 弹的趋向。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性供需偏弱状态，1 ...