（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间8月12日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大 豆期货涨2.08%报1032.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌3.25%报394.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌1.99%报 504.75美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 0.72%, closing at 28.7777 points, with significant fluctuations following the USDA's monthly report on agricultural stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg Grain Index was primarily in a downtrend, fluctuating around 28.70 points before dropping to a low of 28.4675 points after the USDA report [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 3.25%, settling at 3.9450 USD per bushel, with notable declines occurring post-USDA report [1] - CBOT wheat futures decreased by 1.99%, closing at 5.0475 USD per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 2.18%, ending at 10.3225 USD per bushel, after initially dropping to a low of 9.94 USD just before the USDA report [1] - Soybean meal futures rose by 0.83%, while soybean oil futures saw a slight increase of 0.15%, indicating a V-shaped recovery throughout the day [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn: Corn prices showed a weakening trend on Monday. Futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices declined. Mid - term operations should maintain a bearish outlook, focusing on the impact of new grain costs on forward prices [1] - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Monday due to improved export prospects and hot weather in the production areas. Domestic bean meal and rapeseed meal prices fell, and the supply concerns eased. The strategy for bean meal is short - term trading [1] - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil rose on Monday due to improved export expectations and a positive MPOB report. Domestic palm oil led the increase among the three major oils, reaching a three - year high. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [1] - Eggs: The main egg contract continued to decline on Monday. Although spot prices rose slightly, the short - term fundamentals remained weak. However, there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future, but the high point is likely to be lower than last year [1][2] - Pigs: The main pig futures contract rebounded in the morning and then declined on Monday. The supply side exerts pressure on pig prices, while policies provide support. The market is expected to remain volatile [2] Group 3: Market Information - Indonesia: The Indonesian trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local sales to lower prices and maintain the DMO level at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January [3] - Soybean Pressing: The domestic soybean pressing volume decreased slightly last week to 2.18 million tons and is expected to rebound to 2.3 million tons this week [3] - Malaysian Palm Oil: In July, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 7.09% month - on - month, inventory increased by 4.02% month - on - month (lower than Reuters' expectation), imports decreased by 12.82% month - on - month, and exports increased by 3.82% month - on - month [3] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [4][5][7][8][11] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [12][13][17][23][25] Group 5: Research Team - Wang Na: Director of the Agricultural Product Research Department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams at DCE. She has won many awards and has rich media experience [27] - Hou Xueling: Soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many awards [27] - Kong Hailan: Researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with experience as a guest analyst on financial channels and participation in many research achievements [27]

农产品日报 | 2025-08-12 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。国际方面，受到美国"对等关税"正式落地以及美棉周度签约表现疲弱的影响，上周ICE美 棉价格重心下移。目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，25/26年度全球棉市或仍将处于供应偏松格局。美棉实 播面积高于预期，旱情较此前明显改善，新年度出口签约仍疲软，预计美棉平衡表也难有改善，国际棉价缺乏明 显驱动，暂难突破震荡区间，预计跟随宏观市场情绪波动为主。国内方面，7月棉花商业库存去库仍较快，三季度 进口量预计维持低位，而滑准税配额迟迟不发，棉价短期仍存底部支撑。当前全国新棉长势良好，增产预期较强， 终端需求持续低迷，纺织企业开机率略有下滑，对棉花原料谨慎补库，限制棉价上涨空间，关注旺季订单情况。 中长期看，四季度随着新棉集中上市，将对棉价形成新的压制。而下半年需求前景仍面临较大不确定性，宏观动 荡环境下出口动能或有所减弱。 策略 中性。库存低位叠加纺织旺季即将到来，棉价下方支撑较强。不过考虑到新年度全球棉市供应充足，中长期产业 端尚不具备持续上涨驱动，相关部门也有望在新棉上市前出台相关调控政策，郑棉上方空间亦受到限制。 风险 上下两难，棉价延续震荡 棉花观点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for rapeseed meal experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2617.00 yuan, with a current price of 2682.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.94% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chaos Tiancheng Futures suggests that short-term drivers are limited, and rapeseed meal may maintain a range-bound operation due to a relatively sufficient supply and a balanced demand-supply situation [2] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that rapeseed meal prices will continue to experience a bearish trend in the short term, with stable import rhythms of raw materials and no significant positive news to support prices [3] - Zhonghui Futures notes that multiple factors are at play, with global rapeseed production recovering year-on-year, but there are risks of yield reductions for new crops. The domestic market shows a mixed inventory situation, with high levels of commercial stocks compared to last year [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand from aquaculture provides some support for rapeseed meal prices, while limited arrivals of rapeseed at ports contribute to a tightening supply expectation [2] - The import of rapeseed from August to October is expected to be significantly lower year-on-year, compounded by a 100% import tariff on rapeseed meal, which supports prices despite the pressure from improved import profits [4] - The current market shows a significant substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal, indicating competitive dynamics in the feed market [4] Group 3: Future Considerations - Market participants should pay attention to changes in trade policies between China and Canada, as well as weather conditions affecting rapeseed planting, which could impact future prices [3][4] - The focus should also be on the adjustments in rapeseed data from the upcoming USDA report, which may influence market sentiment [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the bean meal market, the new - season US soybeans are growing well with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there are concerns about the policy situation. In China, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the bean meal inventory is rising, the increase in Brazilian basis and import costs support the bean meal price. The situation of new - season US soybeans and policy changes are key factors affecting the price [2] - For the corn market, the domestic market has less remaining grain compared to the same period last year, but market confidence is low. Traders are actively selling, and the upcoming harvest of North China spring corn will supplement the supply. Downstream demand is weak, and the yield of new - season corn needs continuous attention [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data - Bean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3072 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.89%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2724 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (-1.77%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: As of the week ending July 31, Canada's rapeseed exports were 30,000 tons (60,000 tons the previous week). The total rapeseed exports in the 2024/25 season were 9.519 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.8% [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2262 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2642 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: As of August 6, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest was 4.439 million tons, with a harvest progress of 89.3% and an average yield of 7.23 tons per hectare [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a significant increase in agricultural futures, with all major contracts closing higher on August 11, indicating a bullish trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - Raw sugar futures rose by 1.78%, closing at 16.54 cents per pound, reflecting a positive movement in the sugar market [1] Group 2: Cotton Market - Cotton futures increased by 0.36%, ending at 66.84 cents per pound, suggesting a stable demand in the cotton sector [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures experienced a notable rise of 2.63%, closing at $8,750.00 per ton, indicating strong market performance for cocoa [1] Group 4: Coffee Market - Coffee futures surged by 3.55%, closing at 313.20 cents per pound, highlighting a robust demand for coffee [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts close higher on August 11, with soybean futures rising by 2.30% to 1010.25 cents per bushel, corn futures increasing by 0.55% to 407.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures remaining flat at 514.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures experienced a significant increase, reflecting a rise of 2.30% [1] - Corn futures also saw a modest gain, with an increase of 0.55% [1] - Wheat futures remained unchanged, indicating stability in that market segment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Palm oil is expected to be strong due to positive supply - demand reports and strong exports. Eggs are under pressure from high supply. Pork prices are affected by supply - demand imbalance. Red dates are rising on production reduction expectations and holiday stocking. Other products like soybean oil, sugar, corn, etc. also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is strongly supported by positive monthly supply - demand reports from Malaysia and strong early - August exports, with a bullish outlook [1]. - Eggs have dropped significantly because of high laying - hen inventory, abundant supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market [1]. - Red dates continue to rise due to expected production reduction in the new season and the start of the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [1]. - Pork prices have fallen after a rise because of accelerated supply from farmers and insufficient consumer demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract has reached a new high this year. Malaysia's July palm oil production increased 7.09% to 181 million tons, exports rose 3.82% to 131 million tons, and inventory increased 4.02% to 211 million tons. August 1 - 10 exports increased 23.3% and 24% compared to the previous period. The market expects increased demand from India before the October Diwali [2]. - Technically, the contract is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8940 and resistance at 9250 [4]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2510 contract has fallen sharply. In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Cold - stored eggs are impacting the market [5]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3160 and resistance at 3254 [5]. 3.2.3 Pork - The main 2511 contract first rose and then fell. Supply pressure remains high, with low demand in summer, increased fattening costs, and some pig diseases. Demand is limited, especially in the southern regions [7]. - Technically, the upward trend remains. The strategy is to hold a long position, with support at 14060 and resistance at 14325 [7]. 3.2.4 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise. New - season production is expected to be 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease. The Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period has started [9]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11400 and resistance at 11900 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise, driven by the strength of palm oil. Uncertain US soybean purchases, soybean oil exports, and expected inventory reduction during the autumn and holidays support the price [11]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8288 and resistance at 8466 [11]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2509 contract has continued to decline. Imported sugar is expected to increase, and domestic sugar de - stocking may slow down. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply [13]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5550 and resistance at 5599 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2509 contract is in a low - level oscillation. Continuous auctions of imported corn, wheat substitution, and low demand from downstream enterprises are pressuring the price. New - season corn has a good harvest outlook [15]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 2245 and resistance at 2268 [15]. 3.2.8 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract has oscillated downward. Trump's call for China to buy more US soybeans may change the import situation. In July, domestic oil mills had a high operating rate, increasing soybean meal output and inventory [19]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3034 and resistance at 3107 [19]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract has oscillated upward. Xinjiang cotton has a good growth outlook, but current commercial inventory is low, and there are expectations of supply shortage before new - cotton listing. The textile industry is in a low season [20]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and open light long positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [22]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract has continued to rise. As of August 6, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons and decreasing. New - season apple listing is delayed due to weather [23]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8200 [23].