以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 过去一周，国内主要市场指数上涨，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为-0.47%、-0.59%、 0.09%和-0.13%。 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收负，茅指数为正斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至茅指数信号，中期配置茅指数的预期能有更高相对收益。从中期微盘股择时角度来看，目前风控信号还没触发。 对于持有微盘板块投资者建议做好风险控制，以及密切跟踪相对净值、动量及中期风险指标的动态。 过去一周，中国公布了 12 月的中采制造业 PMI 数据，报 50.1%。其重回扩张区间，显示国内制造业景气度在年底出现 明显边际回暖，给元旦节后的潜在跨年行情提供了经济景气度利好。而政策端，财政部提前下达 2026 年首批 625 亿 元"两新"资金。这一动作实现了补贴政策在年度交替之际的无缝衔接，有助于维持 2026 年一季度实物工作量的落地强 度。此外，房地产政策在北京的进一步松绑（如北京放宽非京籍及多子女家庭限购），配合全国层面增值税免征年限 调整的正式生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain active and experience an upward trend due to multiple positive factors, with a focus on the technology and consumer sectors for medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market rose by 2.01% last week, with the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 4.31% [2] - Among the primary sectors, 7 sectors saw gains while 4 sectors declined, with notable increases in Information Technology (4.54%), Energy (3.97%), and Materials (2.98%) [2] - In the secondary sectors, Semiconductor, Defense, Oil & Petrochemicals, Software Services, and Paper & Packaging led the gains, while Household Products, Durable Goods, Consumer Services, Daily Consumer Retail, and Textiles & Apparel faced declines [2] Group 2: Market Liquidity - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 171.19 billion, an increase of HKD 31.26 billion from the previous week [3] - The average daily short-selling amount was HKD 19.93 billion, up by HKD 2.96 billion from the previous week, with short-selling accounting for 11.78% of the trading volume, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [3] - There was a net outflow of HKD 3.81 billion from southbound funds, a decrease of HKD 6.37 billion compared to the previous week [3] Group 3: Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of January 2, 2026, the Hang Seng Index had a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.09 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.23, both up by 2.36% from the previous week, positioned at the 79% and 56% percentiles since 2010 [4] - The Hang Seng Technology Index had a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.8 and a price-to-book ratio of 3.15, at the 36% and 66% percentiles since 2010 [4] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was 4.08%, which is 1.82 standard deviations below the 3-year rolling mean, placing it at the 4% percentile since 2010 [4]

| 商贸零售 | | | | 翠微股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交通运输 | -0.62 | 183.52 | 19.30 | 海汽集团 | -9.21 | | 银行 | -1.13 | 183.56 | 51.60 | 浦发银行 | -4.82 | | 石油石化 | -2.77 | 158.26 | 90.09 | 恒逸石化 | -4.64 | （文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | 3.59 | 854.93 | 113.85 | 博拓生物 | 20.01 | | 电子 | 3.05 | 2830.31 | 29.84 | 云汉芯城 | 20.00 | | 国防军工 | 3.02 | 1378.67 | 26.19 | 航天环宇 | 10.10 | | 非银金融 | 2.88 | 448.87 | 77.44 | 浙江东方 | 9.24 | | 有色金属 ...

截至上午收盘，上证指数报收4011.45点，上涨1.07%；深证成指收于13777.32点，上涨1.87%；创业板 指上涨2.15%；科创50指数上涨4.05%。 不含当日上市新股，今日可交易A股中，上涨个股有3847只，占比74.40%，下跌个股有1182只，平盘个 股142只。其中，收盘股价涨停的有98只，跌停股有9只。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，涨停个股中，主板有77只，创业板15只，科创板6只。以所属行业来看，上 榜个股居前的行业有医药生物、国防军工、基础化工行业，上榜个股分别有19只、11只、11只。 涨停股中，*ST阳光、*ST万方等18只股为ST股。连续涨停天数看，锋龙股份已连收7个涨停板，连续涨 停板数量最多。从上午收盘涨停板封单量来看，岩山科技最受资金追捧，上午收盘涨停板封单有 18698.03万股，其次是利欧股份、美克家居等，涨停板封单分别有16897.48万股、8273.61万股。以封单 金额计算，锋龙股份、岩山科技、海格通信等涨停板封单资金最多，分别有23.70亿元、14.58亿元、 14.06亿元。（数据宝） 两市涨停股一览 | 代码 | 简称 | 收盘价（元） | 换手率（%） | ...

Group 1 - Major market indices opened higher on the first trading day of 2026, with electronics and media sectors rising over 2%, while pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials also showed strong gains [1] - The brain-computer interface (BCI) concept surged, with the index rising over 10%, leading to a wave of stock price increases, including a 30% limit up for BeiYikang and 20% limit ups for Sanbo Brain Science, Meihao Medical, and Aipeng Medical [2] - Elon Musk announced that his BCI company Neuralink will start large-scale BCI output in 2026, planning to shift towards nearly fully automated surgeries [3] Group 2 - Open Source Securities reported that Neuralink's expectations for scaled production and automated surgical solutions signify a transition from clinical validation to commercial scalability for brain-computer interfaces [4] - Companies with positive earnings forecasts for 2025 have performed well, with C Strong rising over 10% and Salt Lake Shares and Ocean Biological both increasing over 7%. Over 40 companies have released earnings forecasts, with many expecting profit increases, including Transfar Zhilian, Baiao Saitu, and Tianci Materials, all projecting profit growth exceeding 100% [5] - Ocean Biological expects a net profit growth of 50.6% to 72.56 million for 2025 [5] Group 3 - Two new stocks are available for subscription this week, including Zhixin Co., which specializes in automotive welding parts and has become a primary supplier for major automotive manufacturers [7] - Kema Materials focuses on the research, production, and sales of dry friction plates and wet paper-based friction plates, aiming to develop new friction materials [8] Group 4 - As of December 31, 2025, the market's financing balance totaled 2.52 trillion, a decrease of 143.69 billion from the previous trading day [9] - 349 stocks received net financing purchases exceeding 10 million, with 34 stocks having net purchases over 1 billion [10] - China Satellite topped the list with a net purchase of 1.194 billion, followed by Xinwei Communication and Aerospace Electronics with net purchases of 525 million and 499 million, respectively [11]

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，航天电子所属的国防军工行业，目前整体涨幅为1.62%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有92只，涨停的有雷科防务、银河电子等4只。股价下跌的有48只，跌幅居前的有富吉瑞、航发 科技、高凌信息等，跌幅分别为9.37%、5.90%、5.18%。 两融数据显示，该股最新（12月31日）两融余额为35.20亿元，其中，融资余额为34.82亿元，近10日增 加6.78亿元，环比增长24.16%。 公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入88.35亿元，同比下降4.32%，实现净利润 2.09亿元，同比下降62.77%，基本每股收益为0.0630元，加权平均净资产收益率1.01%。（数据宝） 航天电子股价再创历史新高，该股近期呈不断突破新高之势，近一个月累计有15个交易日股价刷新历史 纪录。截至09:44，该股目前上涨0.94%，股价报21.52元，成交2.24亿股，成交金额48.55亿元，换手率 6.80%，该股最新A股总市值达710.01亿元，该股A股流通市值710.01亿元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

【资料图】 截至12月31日，市场融资余额合计2.52万亿元，较前一交易日减少143.69亿元，其中，沪市融资余额 12687.96亿元，较前一交易日减少94.89亿元；深市融资余额12473.92亿元，较前一交易日减少48.57亿 元；北交所融资余额79.68亿元，较前一交易日减少2310.12万元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，具体到个股，12月31日共有1166只股获融资净买入，净买入金额在千万元 以上的有349只，其中34只融资净买入额超亿元。中国卫星融资净买入额居首，当日净买入11.94亿元， 其次是信维通信、航天电子，融资净买入金额分别为5.25亿元、4.99亿元，融资净买入金额居前的还有 三花智控、万向钱潮、航天发展等。 分行业统计，获融资客净买入超亿元个股中，电子、国防军工、电力设备等行业最为集中，分别有6 只、5只、4只个股上榜。板块分布上，大手笔净买入个股中，主板有24只，创业板有9只，科创板有1 只。 融资客大手笔净买入个股中，从最新融资余额占流通市值比例看，算术平均值为4.61%，融资余额占比 最高的是沃尔德，该股最新融资余额8.23亿元，占流通市值的比例为8.45%，融资余额占比较高的 ...

个股方面，12月31日，有1168只个股获融资净买入，净买入金额在3000万元以上的有126股。其中，35 股获融资净买入额超1亿元。中国卫星获融资净买入额居首，净买入11.94亿元；融资净买入金额居前的 还有信维通信、航天电子、三花智控、万向钱潮、航天发展、兆易创新、天赐材料、顺灏股份等股。 Wind统计显示，12月31日，申万31个一级行业中有8个行业获融资净买入，其中，国防军工行业获融资 净买入额居首，当日净买入23.43亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有家用电器、传媒、轻工制造等。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84, up by 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% to 13525.02 [2] - The ChiNext Index experienced a significant increase of nearly 50% throughout 2025, indicating strong growth in the market [1][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Defense and Military with a gain of 2.13%, Media at 1.54%, and Real Estate at 1.13%, while sectors like Communication and Agriculture showed declines of -1.35% and -1.10% respectively [3] - Notable concept stocks included the Xiaohongshu concept and Kuaishou concept, which rose by 2.88% and 2.49% respectively, while sectors like Silicon Energy and Organic Silicon faced declines [3] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the overall market will maintain some upward potential before the Spring Festival, with any short-term adjustments viewed as opportunities for low-cost positioning [6] - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December at 50.1%, indicating expansion in manufacturing activity [5][6] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on sectors such as dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer goods for potential investment opportunities [6]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 廖市无双:马年春节,"红包"能有多大?20260104 摘要 Q&A 2026 年市场的整体走势如何? 2026 年的市场整体走势较为强势,超出预期。回顾 2025年 12 月中下旬的表现, 尤其是 A500 指数的规模骤增,以及光模块和商业航天板块的强劲表现,推动了 中证 500、中证 1,000 和国证 2000 等成长指数向上挑战前高。这种强势从个别 指数传导至整个市场,使得中线格局向上的判断较为一致。短期内可能会出现震 荡或调整,但整体趋势依然看好。 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 市场向上的主要驱动力是什么? 市场向上的主要驱动力有三个:首先是 A500 指数的强劲表现。2024年 12 月 10 日至 28 日期间,A500 在两周内增加了接近 700 亿份,其中圣诞节一周增加了接 近 400 亿份。其次是商业航天板块的火爆,这推动了中证 1.000 和国证 2000 等 成长指数走强。最后是光模块板块持续创新高,自 2024年12月8日 AI ETF 发 行上市以来,成为坚定买入力量的重要组成部分。这三股力量共同 ...