当地时间周二7月29日，特朗普威胁印度再不达成协议，就将面临25%的关税，这一言论加剧了外界对 谈判前景的担忧。根据此前美国商务部发布的数据来看，2024年美国从印度进口了870亿美元商品，而 印度从美国进口了价值420亿美元的商品，贸易逆差不断扩大。 周二，据媒体援引两名印度政府消息人士透露，印度方面决定在华盛顿8月1日截止日期前暂缓新的贸易 让步。据了解，印度准备应对美国可能征收的20%-25%关税，同时计划在美国代表团8月中旬访问时， 寻求通过全面双边协议解决贸易分歧。目标是在9月或10月前敲定全面双边协议。 截止7月30日上午11点56分，现货黄金现报3328.62美元/盎司，涨幅0.07%。 目前距离特朗普政府设定的8月1日加征"对等"关税的期限越来越近，这期间，美国与欧盟、日本、英国 等主要伙伴先后达成了贸易协议，并与中国方面关税暂停措施展期90天，但与印度之间的谈判目前尚未 达成。据了解，特朗普政府设定的关税最后期限是在华盛顿时间8月1日凌晨12:01。 ...

美联储理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒早些时候表示，美国央行不应在"一段时间内"降息，因为特朗普政府关 税的影响开始在消费者价格中显现。库格勒补充说，限制性货币政策对于保持通胀心理是至关重要的。 随着全球贸易局势的不断变化，加拿大与美国之间的贸易关系再次成为焦点。尽管两国正在努力达成一 项新的贸易协议，以缓解当前的关税争端，但经济学家们警告，加拿大的经济前景依然笼罩在不确定性 的阴云之下。即使短期内能够达成协议，未来的挑战——尤其是《美墨加协定》（USMCA）的审议 ——仍可能对加拿大经济造成深远影响。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国和中国将在两周内的最后期限前继续就维持关税休战进行谈 判，特朗普将对任何延期做出最终决定。贝森特淡化了特朗普拒绝延期的任何预期。 中国财政部长蓝佛安周二表示，中国将加大财政支持力度，以提振国内消费，缓解日益加剧的经济逆 风。他强调，中国发展环境的不确定性正在增加，北京将采取更加积极的财政政策来帮助稳定增长。 美国和欧盟周日达成了一项框架贸易协议，对大多数欧洲商品征收15%的关税，并将于8月1日生效。据 彭博称，这笔交易结束了长达数月的僵局。 【黄金期货行情表现】 7月30日，沪金主力 ...

Group 1 - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [1] - The global economic growth forecast for 2025 has been increased to 3.0%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate [1] - The weakening of the US dollar has provided emerging markets with more policy space to respond to economic challenges [1] Group 2 - The US economic growth forecast has been adjusted to 1.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The OBBB Act passed in July is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP by approximately 1.5 percentage points by 2026 [2] - Japan's economic growth forecast has been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% based on actual data from early 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]

2025年7月29日外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会 深圳卫视记者：2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议昨日闭幕。大会发表了《人工智 能全球治理行动计划》，中方还倡议成立世界人工智能合作组织，受到各方广泛关注。发言人能否进一 步介绍会议情况？ 郭嘉昆：7月26日至28日，2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议在上海成功举行，国 务院总理李强出席大会开幕式并致辞。此次大会取得四方面积极成果： 一是阐明中方推进人工智能发展和治理的主张。李强总理在致辞中提出三点建议，即更加注重人工智能 的普及普惠，坚持开放共享、智能平权；更加注重创新合作，深化科技研发合作和人才交流；更加注重 共同治理，推动形成人工智能全球治理框架和规则。 二是发表《人工智能全球治理行动计划》。《行动计划》在广泛吸收各国有益经验基础上，提出13项切 实可行的具体行动，以促进发展应用和确保安全可控为目标，强调尊重主权和公平普惠原则，重视应对 能源环境问题，呼吁开展国际合作和协同治理。《行动计划》为完善人工智能全球治理提供了中国智 慧，作出了中国贡献。 三是倡议成立世界人工智能合作组织。这是中方践行多边主义、响应全球南方呼 ...

Core Points - The EU and the US have reached a new trade agreement aimed at avoiding a larger trade war, with the EU committing to stop importing Russian oil and gas in exchange for reduced US tariffs [1][3] - The EU plans to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US over the next three years, diversifying its energy sources and enhancing energy security [1][4] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on US imports from the EU, but certain categories will have zero tariffs, which has raised concerns among some European officials about the balance of the deal [4][5] Group 1 - The EU will completely abandon imports of Russian oil and gas, opting instead to purchase American energy, which is expected to contribute to European energy security [1] - The EU's energy purchases from the US will include liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel, with a clear goal to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 [1][3] - The agreement is seen as beneficial primarily to the US, with critics arguing it could lead to deindustrialization in Europe and increased energy costs [3][4] Group 2 - The deal is expected to result in an additional $600 billion investment from the EU into the US, which some European officials view as detrimental to local employment and industry [4][5] - The agreement has faced criticism for being unbalanced, with concerns that it mirrors previous US trade tactics that pressured other nations [4][5] - European leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, viewing it as a capitulation to US interests at the expense of European economic strength [5]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the EU and the US has sparked strong dissatisfaction from the German and French governments, with leaders warning that it will significantly harm the EU economy [1][2]. Group 1: Reactions from German and French Leaders - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the agreement will cause "considerable damage" to Germany, Europe, and even the US itself [1][3]. - French Prime Minister François Bayrou described the day the agreement was reached as a "dark day," accusing the EU of "yielding and surrendering" [1][3]. - The agreement's 15% tariff rate, while lower than the previously threatened 30%, is still higher than the 10% level announced in April [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the agreement, European stock markets experienced a decline, with the German DAX index falling by 1%, the French CAC 40 index down by 0.4%, and the average decline of 1.8% in automotive stocks within the European Stoxx 600 index [1]. - The euro also depreciated by over 1% against the US dollar [1]. Group 3: Broader Implications - Merz highlighted that the agreement will not only increase inflation rates but will also have a comprehensive impact on transatlantic trade [3]. - The far-right parties in Germany and France view the agreement as a sign of the EU's weakness, with German politician Alice Weidel criticizing it as a "slap in the face" for European consumers and producers [3].

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that while Trump's tariff policies have led to some market volatility, the overall impact on the U.S. economy has been limited and within the normal range of economic fluctuations [1][3][4] - Analysts have differing views on the implications of Trump's policies, with some predicting significant economic turmoil while others argue that the changes are part of a normal economic cycle [3][4] - The success of Trump's economic policies hinges more on political factors rather than purely economic ones, as they aim to overturn decades of established trade policies [2][5] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that the S&P 500 index rose by 11.8% from April 1 to July 18, 2025, indicating a recovery and resilience in the market despite initial concerns [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased from a peak of 4.61% on May 21 to 4.42% by July 18, suggesting a stabilization in the bond market [4] - The articles emphasize that while the tariff policies and a declining dollar may alter trade dynamics, they do not necessarily correlate with a significant downturn in U.S. economic growth [5][13] Group 3 - Trump's administration has seen the dollar experience its fastest decline since 1973, which is viewed as a strategic move to enhance U.S. competitiveness in global markets [6][10] - The combination of tariff measures and dollar depreciation has led to an estimated 25% increase in the average price of imported goods within six months [11][13] - The articles suggest that while the trade geography of the U.S. may change significantly, the overall economic slowdown is driven by different underlying economic forces [13]

Group 1 - International oil prices increased significantly, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, a 2.38% increase, and Brent crude oil futures up by $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, a 2.34% increase [1] - The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement that imposes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S., while steel, aluminum, and copper products from the EU will continue to face a 50% tariff [2] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump's second term, with expectations to purchase $750 billion in energy products from the U.S. by 2028 [2] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the U.S.-EU trade agreement removes a layer of uncertainty, shifting focus back to fundamental market conditions [2] - The OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries emphasized the importance of adhering to production policies and submitting updated compensation reduction plans by August 15 for those not fully compliant [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of ten supportive measures by Hangzhou Customs to enhance the international trade reform in Yiwu, Zhejiang Province, focusing on trade innovation, regulatory optimization, and logistics improvement [1][2][3] - Yiwu is recognized as a global hub for small commodities, and the new measures aim to deepen the market procurement trade model, adapting to digitalization and multi-business integration trends [1][2] - The measures include the implementation of a positive list management system for imported daily consumer goods and the facilitation of cross-border e-commerce return processes, enhancing the efficiency of trade operations [1][2] Group 2 - The overall reform plan for Yiwu emphasizes "seven initiatives and two major supports," targeting improvements in market procurement trade, import trade innovation, and cross-border e-commerce regulations [2] - The Yiwu government aims to address challenges in importing daily consumer goods, with a pilot program involving Zhejiang China Commodity City Group Co., Ltd. to expedite import trade development [2] - According to data from Hangzhou Customs, Yiwu's total import and export value reached 405.83 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 25%, indicating a strong performance in international trade [2]