1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil production is decreasing while exports are increasing, which may support the performance of crude palm oil futures. It is likely to break through and reach the range of 4200 - 4250. In China, there is pressure for a strong shock or short - term correction after reaching a high level. After sideways consolidation around 8500 yuan, it may follow the Malaysian palm oil and reach the previous range of 8800 - 9000 yuan. - Regarding soybean oil, the bio - diesel policies are only proposals. CBOT soybean oil has risen by 8 cents, with a nearly 17% increase, and may have a short - term adjustment. In China, the basis quotation is under pressure due to increasing inventory and the off - season demand [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - The operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybeans have a fast planting progress but a lower good - quality rate. Brazilian soybean sales have declined recently while the crushing profit has recovered. - In China, the arrival volume, inventory of soybeans and bean meal are rising rapidly, and the basis is weak. However, the strength of US soybeans supports domestic bean meal prices. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [2]. 2.3 Corn Industry - In the long - term, the tight supply and increasing demand of corn support its price increase. In the short - term, the price is strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high level, and the market will remain volatile at a high level. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy releases [3][5]. 2.4 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains an oscillating structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is weak. The market has no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is also weak [7][8]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply tends to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar price is also expected to be weak - oscillating due to factors such as increasing import profits and weak demand [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The strong basis of old cotton supports the cotton price, but the expected high yield of new cotton brings long - term pressure. The downstream demand has a marginal improvement but lacks a strong driving force. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is large, and the digestion of low - price eggs is okay while high - price eggs have a slow sales. It is expected that the egg price will decline slightly and then stabilize, and there may be some factors trying to boost the price in the later stage [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.36% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 7680 yuan, up 0.87%; the basis of Y2509 was 670 yuan, down 5.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8800 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.11% decrease; the futures price of P2509 was 8350 yuan, up 0.80%; the basis of P2509 was 450 yuan, down 14.45%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in September was 8872.7 yuan, up 0.31%, and the import profit was - 523 yuan, up 6.82% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9900 yuan, up 120 yuan, a 1.54% increase; the futures price of O1509 was 9375 yuan, up 1.57%; the basis of O1509 was 525 yuan, up 0.96% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry - **Bean Meal**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan, down 30 yuan, a - 1.03% decrease; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.39% decrease; the basis of M2509 was - 154 yuan, up 27.27%. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in July was 197 yuan, down 8 yuan, a - 4.1% decrease [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.38% decrease; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan, up 6 yuan, a 0.22% increase; the basis of RM2509 was - 72 yuan, down 22.22%. The crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in November was 14 yuan, down 62 yuan, a - 442.86% decrease [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4242 yuan, up 5 yuan, a 0.12% increase; the basis of the main soybean - one contract was - 282 yuan, down 1.77%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3690 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3686 yuan, up 29 yuan, a 0.79% increase; the basis of the main soybean - two contract was 1 yuan, down 2900.00% [2]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2397 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.08% decrease; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.42% increase; the basis was - 17 yuan, up 41.38%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 113 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 521 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2694 yuan, up 9 yuan, a 0.34% increase; the spot price in Changchun was 2720 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 26 yuan, down 25.71%. The 7 - 9 spread of corn starch was - 84 yuan, up 9.68%. The profit of Shandong starch was - 68 yuan, up 18.07% [3]. 3.4 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis was 465 yuan, up 30 yuan, a 6.90% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2507 was 13340 yuan, up 35 yuan, a 0.26% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2509 was 13835 yuan, up 20 yuan, a 0.14% increase; the 7 - 9 spread of live hogs was 495 yuan, down 15 yuan, a - 2.94% decrease [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 14300 yuan, up 50 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14450 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 13850 yuan, down 100 yuan; etc. The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 146597, up 561, a 0.38% increase; the weekly white - meat price was 20.32 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease; the weekly piglet price was 27.14 yuan, down 0.9 yuan, a - 3.07% decrease; etc. [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Sugar 2601 was 5535 yuan, down 19 yuan, a - 0.34% decrease; the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5679 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.21% decrease; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.10 cents, a - 0.61% decrease; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 144 yuan, down 7 yuan, a - 5.11% decrease [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.17% increase; the spot price in Kunming was 6040 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 361 yuan, up 22 yuan, a 6.49% increase; the Kunming basis was 186 yuan, up 12 yuan, a 6.90% increase [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons, an 11.63% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales were 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons, a 26.07% increase; the national industrial sugar inventory was 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons, an 8.20% decrease; etc. [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13540 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the futures price of Cotton 2601 was 13545 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.57 cents/pound, down 1.07 cents, a - 1.58% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread of cotton was - 5 yuan, unchanged [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14756 yuan, down 6 yuan, a - 0.04% decrease; the CC Index of 3128B was 14857 yuan, down 5 yuan, a - 0.03% decrease; the FC Index: M: 1% was 13604 yuan, down 87 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 37.53 million tons, a - 9.8% decrease; the industrial inventory was 94.11 million tons, up 1.21 million tons, a 1.3% increase; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons, a - 33.3% decrease; etc. [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry - On June 18, 2025, the futures price of the Egg 09 contract was 3691 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan, a 1.15% increase; the futures price of the Egg 07 contract was 2956 yuan/500KG, up 101 yuan, a 3.54% increase; the egg - producing area price was 2.76 yuan/jin, up 0.68%; the basis was - 839 yuan/500KG, down 55 yuan, a - 7.05% decrease; the 9 - 7 spread was 735 yuan, down 59 yuan, a - 7.43% decrease [14].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but there is a risk of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8084 with a rise of 112; palm oil was 8518 with a rise of 72; and rapeseed oil was 9703 with a rise of 120. The basis of different oils in various regions showed different changes, such as the basis of soybean oil in Tianjin decreased by 10 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil was 70 with a rise of 12, palm oil was 42 with a rise of 2, and rapeseed oil was 130 with a rise of 6 [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was 434 with a rise of 40, the OI - Y spread was 1619, and the OI - P spread was 1185 with a rise of 48. The oil - meal ratio was 2.64 with a rise of 0.05 [4] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 190, and the disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1238 [4] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 24th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 41.0 (compared with 37.3 last week and 84.7 last year), palm oil was 39.2, and rapeseed oil was 75.8 (compared with 76.9 last week and 41.5 last year) [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to ITS data, Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 43.3% month - on - month, an increase of 59.9 million tons, and the exports of crude palm oil increased by more than four times month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: As of June 13, 2025 (the 24th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%. The inventory was still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotation was stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decrease [6] - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.87 million tons, and the operating rate was 63.49%. As of June 13, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 84.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis was stable [6][8] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 7.15 million tons, and the operating rate was 19.06%. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 million tons, still at a high level in the same period of history. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation was around 1050 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1400. The spot market was light, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: In the short - term, it is expected that the oil and fat market will be volatile and bullish due to external factors, but beware of a high - level pullback after the event changes and the sentiment fades [10] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [11] - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [12] 3.4 Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, and East China's third - grade rapeseed oil; the monthly spreads of Y 9 - 1, P 5 - 9, and OI 5 - 9; and the cross - variety spreads of Y - P 05 and OI - Y 05 [15][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Fundamentals in Malaysia are favorable with a 4% decline in production and a 14% increase in exports in the first half - month. BMD palm oil is in a stagnant and adjusted pattern near 4100 ringgit, with support around 4000 ringgit. Domestic palm oil has limited demand and is easily affected by the international market [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA's bio - diesel proposal is positive, and the May US soybean oil inventory was lower than expected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and rising CBOT soybean prices support the market [1]. Meal - The market is affected by policies such as China - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel mixing requirements. Brazilian soybean sales progress has declined recently, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [3]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high. In the long term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [5]. Pork - The spot price of pork is in a volatile structure. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and the upward drive is weak. However, there is support from the purchase and storage policy [9][10]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, and the original sugar is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak and volatile [14][15]. Cotton - The old - crop basis supports cotton prices, but the expected high yield of new cotton creates long - term pressure. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. Eggs - The national egg supply is large. It is expected that egg prices will decline slightly and then stabilize next week, with some factors potentially pulling up prices later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean oil**: On June 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8320 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7614 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 706 yuan/ton, down 2.49% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8810 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2509 was 8284 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the basis was 526 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; the futures price of O1509 was 9230 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 520 yuan/ton, up 11.59% [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; the basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 23.20% [3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the basis was - 72 yuan/ton, up 20.88% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: On June 17, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2364 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 71.43% [5]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 12.90% [5]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13305 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Live Pig 2509 was 13815 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the 7 - 9 spread was 510 yuan/ton, up 7.37% [9]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan and Shandong were 14250 yuan/ton and 14500 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5554 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of Sugar 2509 was 5691 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; ICE raw sugar was 16.45 cents/pound, down 3.35% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6030 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price in Kunming was 5865 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13525 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of Cotton 2601 was 13530 yuan/ton, unchanged; ICE US cotton was 67.64 cents/pound, down 0.60% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14762 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14862 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [17]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3649 yuan/500KG, down 0.55%; the price of the Egg 07 contract was 2855 yuan/500KG, down 1.35% [19]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.77 yuan/jin, up 2.49% [19].

期货热点追踪 原油暴涨点燃油脂市场！叠加6月上旬马棕油产量超预期下降，8000元大关是棕榈油的底部？ 相关链接 ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: International oil prices are rebounding, and attention should be paid to the RVO announcement situation [1] - Soybean oil: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it will fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,010 yuan/ton (daily session) with a 0.50% increase and 8,046 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.45% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 7,688 yuan/ton (daily session) with a -0.08% decrease and 7,732 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.57% increase; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,178 yuan/ton (daily session) with a 0.32% increase and 9,256 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.85% increase. The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,940 ringgit/ton (daily session) with a 0.03% increase and 3,849 ringgit/ton (night session) with a 0.26% increase. CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 48.11 cents/pound (daily session) with a -0.85% decrease [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 trading volume was 543,908 lots, a decrease of 251,974 lots; open interest was 412,207 lots, a decrease of 32,403 lots. Soybean oil主力 trading volume was 238,752 lots, a decrease of 64,250 lots; open interest was 559,414 lots, an increase of 2,874 lots. Rapeseed oil主力 trading volume was 278,856 lots, a decrease of 79,969 lots; open interest was 284,550 lots, a decrease of 2,579 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 7,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 955 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil (Guangdong) was 340 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil (Guangdong) was 292 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 22 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 1,168 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 322 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 20 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 44 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 148 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US EPA will propose to set the biomass - based diesel quota below 5.25 billion gallons for 2026 and 2027. The industry is awaiting the EPA's decision on small refinery exemptions [2] 3.3 USDA Data - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 80.736 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.051 million tons, an increase of 588,000 tons; exports are expected to be 45.943 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons (unchanged), and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons [4] - The ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 is expected to be 295 million bushels, unchanged from May. Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production is expected to be 49 million tons (unchanged), and Brazil's is expected to be 169 million tons (unchanged). Global 2025/2026 soybean ending inventory is expected to be 125.3 million tons, compared with 124.33 million tons in May [4] 3.4 SEA Data - India's sunflower oil imports in May were 183,555 tons, a 1.9% increase from April; soybean oil imports were 398,585 tons, a 10.42% increase; palm oil imports were 592,888 tons, an 84.44% increase. The total vegetable oil imports in May were 1,187,068 tons, a 33.15% increase from April [5] 3.5 Brazilian Data - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to reach 169.6058 million tons, a 14.8% increase year - on - year and a 0.8% increase month - on - month; the sown area is expected to be 47.6198 million hectares, a 3.2% increase year - on - year and a 0.71 - million - hectare increase month - on - month; the yield per hectare is expected to be 3.56 tons, an 11.3% increase year - on - year and a 0.7% increase month - on - month [5] 3.6 Canadian and Australian Data - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 18.2 million tons, almost unchanged from the previous estimate. Precipitation in the main rapeseed - producing areas in southern Canada was about 33 mm less than normal in the past two weeks, and the temperature was higher than average. Future weather may help relieve the drought in some areas, but drought may continue in Manitoba [6] - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 6.2 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate. Although recent rainfall has reached the main rapeseed - producing areas, the surface soil moisture in some areas is lower than the historical median. The weather outlook from June to November predicts sufficient precipitation and mild temperatures [6] 3.7 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: Grease Daily Report - Report Date: June 12, 2025 - Report Author: Liu Qiannan - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute, Agricultural Product R & D Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, oils and fats are expected to maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - **Soybean Oil**: The 2509 closing price was 7688, down 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 7958, 7948, and 7908 respectively. Basis values were 260, 270, and 220, with Tianjin's basis up 20 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2509 closing price was 8010, up 40. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8360, 8410, and 8480 respectively. Basis values were 350, 400, and 470, with Guangdong's basis down 10 and Tianjin's down 30 [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2509 closing price was 9178, up 29. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9358, 9238. Basis values were 180 and 60, with no change [4]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For the 9 - 1 spread, soybean oil was 44, down 6; palm oil was 20, up 4; rapeseed oil was 148, up 7 [4]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 322, down 46; the OI - Y spread was 1490, up 35; the OI - P spread was 1168, down 11; the oil - meal ratio was 2.52, down 0.004 [4]. - **Import Profits**: - For 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 7 - month shipment, the CNF price was 970, and the disk profit was - 311. For crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 7 - month shipment, the FOB price was 1068, and the disk profit was - 1429 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories (2025 Week 23)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 81.3 million tons, up from 75.5 million tons last week and down from 93.8 million tons the same period last year. Palm oil inventory was 37.3 million tons, up from 36.4 million tons last week and similar to 36.8 million tons the same period last year. Rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, down from 78.2 million tons last week and up from 41.9 million tons the same period last year [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In May, India's sunflower oil imports were 183,555 tons, up 1.9% month - on - month; soybean oil imports were 398,585 tons, up 10.42% month - on - month; palm oil imports were 592,888 tons, up 84.44% month - on - month. Total vegetable oil imports were 1,187,068 tons, up 33.15% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 37.26 million tons, up 2.36% week - on - week, still at a relatively low level. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. The origin is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, and palm oil lacks a clear and continuous positive driver, expected to move sideways in the short term [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 224,460 tons, and the startup rate was 63.1%, down from the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 81.27 million tons, up 7.66% week - on - week, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level, and the basis declined. The market is concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel, and the盘面 will be affected. The US soybean sowing is underway, and the good rate is lower than expected, but the impact is limited. The short - term 盘面 will maintain a volatile trend [8]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 72,000 tons, and the startup rate was 19.19%, down from the previous week. As of May 30, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 78.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The spot market was weak, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase. There are many policy disturbances in the short term, and the single - side will maintain a wide - range volatile trend. Attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: It is expected that oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and price differences, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [13][16]

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] Core Views - Palm oil led the decline in the oil and fat sector. The main contract P2509 decreased with increasing positions, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The price may further decline, and attention should be paid to the support around 7800. The latest MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May rose to the highest level in 8 months. Although the strong exports offset part of the growth in production and imports, the market expected the palm oil inventory to rise above 2 million tons, so the report was slightly positive for palm oil. The export data in the first 10 days in Malaysia were good, which supported the market, but the future increase in production and inventory would bring pressure, and the medium - and long - term price center would move down [8]. - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada restarted negotiations, there were few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis were strong, and the domestic crushing profit deteriorated. The support at the 9000 level was strong in the short term. Later, focus on the results of China - Canada negotiations and the growing weather of new - season rapeseed in Canada [8]. - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continued to pressure the market. Pay attention to the recent soybean import and crushing situation. The improvement of the supply situation might bring pressure to soybean oils. As the factory's soybean oil inventory continued to increase, the spot basis quotation was still under pressure, which would drag down the market, and it was expected to decline in shock. One could continuously short out - of - the - money call options. In the short term, the overall supply of oils and fats was sufficient, lacking upward drivers [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). The basis price of soybean oil in the East China market: first - grade soybean oil, spot: Y2509+200; August - September: Y2509+230; October - January: Y2601+280. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at East China ports was P09 + 440 yuan/ton (limited to road transport), P09 + 380 yuan/ton for June shipment, and P09 + 400 yuan/ton for July shipment. The price of 24 - degree palm oil at Dongguan factories was 09+320 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short out - of - the - money call options for soybean oils [8]. 2. Industry News - Independent inspection agency AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 327,355 tons, an increase of 8.1% compared to May 1 - 10 [10]. - Shipping survey agency ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, an increase of 26.4% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 13,800 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the previous week [10]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 285,578 tons, an increase of 32.7% compared to May 1 - 10. Exports to China were 10,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last month [15]. - As of June 10, the inventory of imported soybeans at major ports was about 6 million tons, compared with 7.5 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month was 3.5 million tons. According to data from China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival of imported soybeans in June 2025 was 10.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared to the previous month's forecast of 10.1 million tons, a month - on - month change of 4.36%, and an increase of 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 5.70% [15]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts showing price, basis, spread, and exchange rate data of various oils and fats, including East China's third - grade rapeseed oil spot price, fourth - grade soybean oil spot price, South China's 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and the exchange rates of US dollar against Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan [13][14][16]

Report Information - Report Date: June 11, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Analysts: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - MPOB's latest data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May reached an eight - month high. Strong exports only offset part of the increase in production and imports. The report is slightly positive for palm oil. Malaysia's export data for the first 10 days of June is good, supporting the market, and palm oil continues to fluctuate. [7] - For rapeseed oil, although China and Canada have restarted negotiations, there are few rapeseed purchases after June - July. The domestic spot and basis are strong, and the 9000 level has strong short - term support. [7] - Brazil's abundant soybean supply continues to pressure the market. Attention should be paid to recent soybean imports and crushing. An improved supply situation may bring pressure to soybean and oil products. [7] Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - **Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: First - grade soybean oil: July - September: 09 + 260; October - January: 01 + 320; April - June: 05 + 280. Guangdong market first - grade soybean oil spot price: Dongguan: Y2509 + 260. East China port 24 - degree palm oil: P09 + 440 yuan/ton (truck transport only), June shipment P09 + 380 yuan/ton, July shipment P09 + 400 yuan/ton. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to weather, tariffs, and biodiesel policies of various countries, as well as soybean imports and crushing. [7] Industry News - **Malaysia Palm Oil Data**: In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.05%; imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.32%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.62%; and the end - of - month inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65%. [8] - **Malaysia Palm Oil Export in June**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 were 371,600 tons, a 26.4% increase compared to the same period in May. According to AmSpec, exports were 327,355 tons, an 8.1% increase compared to the same period in May. [8] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the 23rd week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 365,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous week; the contract volume was 24,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Sales**: As of June 6, 2025, Brazilian farmers had sold 64% of the expected 2024/25 soybean production (about 110.35 million tons). This is lower than 71.8% in the same period last year and 76.9% of the five - year average. Due to factors such as weak global prices and high logistics costs, farmers' overall sales willingness is conservative. [9] Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot prices and basis changes of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil basis changes, and P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, and exchange rates of US dollars against Ringgit and Renminbi. [14][15][23]