行 业 及 产 业 石油石化 2025 年 05 月 09 日 24Q4 及 25Q1 油价同比回落，上 游板块继续维持高景气，下游炼化 和聚酯板块盈利有所修复 陈悦 (8621)23297818× chenyue@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 看好 ——石油化工 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报业绩总结 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈悦 A0230524100003 chenyue@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - ⚫ 2024Q4、2025Q1 原油价格先跌后涨，成品油价格先升后降：2024Q4 方面，2024 年 10、11、12 月 Brent 原油均价分别为 75.4、73.4、73.1 美元/桶，波动区间为 71—81 美元；2024Q4 均价为 7 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the proportion of public fund holdings in the basic chemical sector slightly increased quarter-on-quarter but decreased year-on-year, with a market value proportion of 3.32% [2][13] - The basic chemical stocks accounted for 3.53% of the A-share market, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2][13] - The number of stocks held by public funds in the basic chemical sector reached 146, an increase of 4 stocks year-on-year and 21 stocks quarter-on-quarter [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Event - Public funds are required to disclose their top ten heavy stocks within 15 days after the end of each quarter, and the report analyzes the top heavy stocks in the basic chemical industry for Q1 2025 [1][12] 2. Holdings Change - The heavy stock holding ratio in the basic chemical sector increased slightly by 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but decreased by 0.49 percentage points year-on-year [2][13] - The basic chemical industry is underweighted by 0.2%, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2][13] - The oil and chemical sector saw a significant increase in public fund holdings since Q3 2020, but the proportion dropped to 0.4% in Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [2][18] 3. Individual Stock Analysis - The top five heavy stocks in Q1 2025 are Wanhua Chemical, Juhua Co., Sailun Tire, Hualu Hengsheng, and Satellite Chemical, with Satellite Chemical replacing China National Petroleum in the top five [4][29] - The number of companies in the agricultural chemical sector remains the highest among the top 50 heavy stocks, with 9 companies, accounting for 18% [4][29] 4. Market Preference Analysis - The proportion of holdings in industry leaders has decreased, with a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks [5] - Stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion accounted for 33.7% of the total market value of the top 50 chemical stocks, a decrease of 7.49 percentage points [5]

Group 1 - The peak impact of tariff events has passed, and A-shares are expected to continue their recovery amidst fluctuations. The extreme drop on April 7 was a one-time reaction to the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" event, and the rebound in April is a correction of pessimistic sentiment. With the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in May, A-shares have entered a new phase of substantial recovery, although the process is not smooth due to uncertainties regarding the impact of the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on the global economy [1][2][3] - Industries with high dependence on overseas business, such as consumer electronics and CXO, are likely to be significantly affected by "reciprocal tariffs." In contrast, domestic consumption and technological self-innovation are expected to benefit from future hedging policies [1][2] Group 2 - In May, attention can be refocused on technology growth sectors. The low valuation and high dividend direction yielded excess returns in April, and the market style may switch back to technology growth in May. Catalysts for technology sectors include updates to AI large models and developments in robotics competitions [2] - The AI development transition from model training to inference was confirmed at the NVIDIA GTC conference, with emerging AI directions such as cloud computing, AI+office, and AI+medicine to be monitored in May [2] - The trend of domestic semiconductor production continues, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, semiconductor materials, and IC design [2] - The low-altitude economy is expected to accelerate following the announcement of six pilot cities in November 2024, with strong expectations for catch-up performance in ground takeoff and landing facilities and low-altitude aircraft [2] Group 3 - The technology growth sector showed active performance, while cyclical industries lagged. The market maintained an upward trend, with the ChiNext index leading gains. The total trading volume approached 1.3 trillion, indicating a relatively high level. Among 31 primary industry sectors, leading sectors included communication, defense, electric equipment, banking, and machinery, primarily technology growth sectors. In contrast, lagging sectors included beauty care, non-ferrous metals, steel, petrochemicals, and transportation, which are mainly cyclical sectors [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of artificial intelligence development in China, highlighting the strategic significance and key tasks outlined by President Xi Jinping [2] - Central enterprises are encouraged to focus on national strategies and cutting-edge developments, enhancing their role as key providers of intelligent computing infrastructure and application leaders [2] - There is a strong push for central enterprises to improve their foundational large model performance and capabilities, while integrating AI into critical research and production scenarios [2] Group 2 - The meeting underscored the need to enhance the quality of the workforce and improve the welfare of workers, aligning with the fundamental principle of relying on the working class [3] - It called for reforms in the industrial workforce, aiming to build a knowledgeable, skilled, and innovative labor force [3] - The importance of integrating union work into the overall party-building framework was highlighted, ensuring that major issues in union work are addressed promptly [3] Group 3 - The meeting stressed the need for improved policies and resource coordination to create a new landscape for military-civilian integration [4] - It emphasized the importance of implementing veteran employment policies and enhancing job matching and utilization rates [4] - The meeting called for a focus on safety production responsibilities, urging central enterprises in key industries to conduct thorough risk assessments and improve emergency preparedness [4]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 09 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 09 日 1、所在领域 固收 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.3%，沪深 300 上涨 0.6%，科创 50 下跌 0.4%，中证 1000 上涨 0.8%，创业板指上涨 1.7%，恒生指数上涨 0.4%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是通信（+2.6%)、国防军工（+2.6%)、电力设备（+1.6%)、银行（+1.1%)、机械 设备（+1.0%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-1.0%)、有色金属（-0.4%)、钢铁（-0.4%)、石油石化（- 0.3%)、交通运输（-0.2%)。 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 12934 亿元，南下资金净流出 23.9 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商固收 覃汉】债券市场专题研究：如何看待 507 一揽子货币政策措 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 5 月 9 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3352.00 | 0.28% | 9.33 | | | 深证成指 | 10197.66 | 0.93% | 93.53 | | | 沪深 300 | 3852.90 | 0.56% | 21.27 | | | 创业板 | 2029.45 | 1.65% | 32.94 | | | 科创 50 | 1026.44 | -0.36% | -3.75 | | | 北证 50 | 1380.93 | 0.98% | 13.36 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 2.60% | 美容护理 | ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 8 日 A 股 2024 年年报及 2025 年 一季报分析 科技制造仍是关注重点 全 A 非金融景气修复有亮点，但过程仍较为坎坷。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 ◼ 2024 年年报业绩未能改善，2025 年一季报业绩明显改善，两期营收改善 偏慢。全部 A 股/非金融 2024 年报累计归母净利润（下或简称业绩/净利 润）同比增速分别为-2.3%/ -12.9%，较 2024Q3（-0.5%/ -7.2%）下降-1.8/- 5.7Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 2025Q1 累计业绩同比增速分别为 3.6%/4.2%， 较 2024 年年报（-2.3%/-12.9%）大幅提升 5.8/17.1Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 20 ...

新华社北京5月8日电 题：上市公司年度"红包"创新高 常态化分红机制逐渐形成 新华社记者姚均芳、潘清、刘羽佳 近期，A股上市公司2024年年报披露收官。在新"国九条"等政策推动下，上市公司分红积极性显著提 升，呈现史上最丰厚的年度"红包"，一年多次分红等成为新趋势，常态化分红机制逐渐形成。 分红金额创新高 大市值公司争当分红"优等生" 分红是实现投资回报的重要形式，也是尊重和保护投资者权益的重要体现。在2023年度现金分红创新高 的基础上，2024年度上市公司继续为投资者奉上丰厚"红包"。 数据显示，在5400多家披露2024年年报的上市公司中，近七成公司2024年度宣布分红，合计分红金额近 2.39万亿元，同比增长超7%，再创历史新高。 拉长时间线看，近年来A股分红总额和分红家数逐年增长。与2018年度相比，2024年度上市公司累计现 金分红总额几乎翻番，分红公司家数增长近五成。 上海证券 交易所外景。（上交所供图） 从行业看，银行依旧是分红主力军。42家上市银行累计分红超6300亿元，占净利润的比例超30%。其中 工商银行以全年分红1097.73亿元拔得头筹。股份制银行中，招商银行以504.4亿元的分红规 ...

| 石油石化 | | | | 广聚能源 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | -0.22 | 120.00 | -10.44 | 秋乐种业 | -6.77 | | 交通运输 | -0.23 | 121.17 | -28.89 | *ST锦港 | -5.32 | | 美容护理 | -1.05 | 35.48 | -26.57 | 拉芳家化 | -4.97 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指涨0.38%，A股成交量681.04亿股，成交金额8271.00亿 元，比上一个交易日减少16.35%。个股方面，3837只个股上涨，其中涨停85只，1355只个股下跌，其 中跌停5只。从申万行业来看，电力设备、国防军工、通信等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.93%、1.40%、 1.19%；美容护理、交通运输、农林牧渔等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.05%、0.23%、0.22%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） ...