1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current market as a whole shows signs of breaking through the previous range and starting to move upwards. For futures trading, a long - biased strategy is recommended for stock index futures, and buying options is suggested for stock index options. In the long - term, A - shares are considered to have high investment value, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having more growth potential due to science and innovation policies, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3906.40, 3893.20, 3885.80, and 3855.60 respectively, with price increases of 10.80, 8.80, 7.60, and 6.60 and increases of 0.28%, 0.23%, 0.20%, and 0.17%. The trading volumes were 30836.00, 2035.00, 40077.00, and 6044.00, and the open interests were 65471.00, 3682.00, 135428.00, and 40026.00, with decreases of 4640.00, 344.00, 3939.00, and 618.00 respectively [1] - **IH Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2693.00, 2689.00, 2689.00, and 2690.00 respectively, with price increases of 8.80, 7.60, 7.20, and 7.00 and increases of 0.33%, 0.28%, 0.27%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 14261.00, 855.00, 22994.00, and 2568.00, and the open interests were 26401.00, 1756.00, 49133.00, and 8551.00, with decreases of 4124.00, 235.00, 3937.00, and 298.00 respectively [1] - **IC Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 5863.00, 5818.80, 5768.80, and 5650.00 respectively, with price increases of 33.20, 25.80, 20.40, and 15.00 and increases of 0.57%, 0.45%, 0.35%, and 0.27%. The trading volumes were 32984.00, 3036.00, 27514.00, and 7769.00, and the open interests were 73467.00, 4820.00, 91475.00, and 51599.00, with changes of - 4070.00, 17.00, - 3076.00, and - 649.00 respectively [1] - **IM Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6283.00, 6220.60, 6148.60, and 5973.20 respectively, with price increases of 48.40, 42.40, 29.80, and 20.60 and increases of 0.78%, 0.69%, 0.49%, and 0.35%. The trading volumes were 53137.00, 4220.00, 94541.00, and 20114.00, and the open interests were 82875.00, 7270.00, 158728.00, and 68772.00, with changes of - 9504.00, 449.00, - 9029.00, and - 1081.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 13.20, - 4.00, - 44.20, and - 62.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 4.40, - 37.20, and - 56.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the index was 3936.08, with a trading volume of 145.17 billion lots and a total trading value of 2888.21 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 3921.76, with a trading volume of 194.56 billion lots and a total trading value of 3434.68 billion yuan. The increase was 0.37% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the index was 2711.99, with a trading volume of 38.31 billion lots and a total trading value of 764.64 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 2707.57, with a trading volume of 57.08 billion lots and a total trading value of 957.14 billion yuan. The increase was 0.16% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the index was 5915.39, with a trading volume of 166.28 billion lots and a total trading value of 2265.17 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 5863.73, with a trading volume of 199.39 billion lots and a total trading value of 2433.03 billion yuan. The increase was 0.88% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the index was 6356.18, with a trading volume of 237.32 billion lots and a total trading value of 3362.21 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 6276.94, with a trading volume of 248.56 billion lots and a total trading value of 3304.55 billion yuan. The increase was 1.26% [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries had different performance. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had increases of 0.11%, 0.02%, 0.99%, and - 0.01% respectively; the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.29%, 0.87%, - 0.44%, and 1.06% respectively; the telecommunications and public utilities sectors had increases of 1.95% and 0.01% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 29.68, - 42.88, - 50.28, and - 80.48 respectively, compared to values of - 29.76, - 39.36, - 45.16, and - 75.36 two days ago [1] - **IH Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the SSE 50 index were - 18.99, - 22.99, - 22.99, and - 21.99 respectively, compared to values of - 23.17, - 27.57, - 27.57, and - 25.77 two days ago [1] - **IC Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 500 index were - 52.39, - 96.59, - 146.59, and - 265.39 respectively, compared to values of - 36.73, - 73.93, - 118.73, and - 232.13 two days ago [1] - **IM Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 index were - 73.18, - 135.58, - 207.58, and - 382.98 respectively, compared to values of - 46.74, - 102.94, - 166.14, and - 333.94 two days ago [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index had increases of 0.59%, 0.83%, 0.87%, and 1.35% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index had changes of - 0.87%, 0.84%, 0.52%, and - 0.51% respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were in the expansion range for two consecutive months [2] - From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, overseas investors who use the profits distributed by Chinese domestic resident enterprises for domestic direct investment can, if meeting the conditions, offset 10% of the investment amount against the current year's taxable amount [2] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the identification criteria for "light - asset, high - R & D investment" on the ChiNext. About 200 listed companies meeting the criteria, mainly in strategic emerging industries such as information technology and biomedicine, are no longer subject to the 30% limit of supplementary working capital for raised funds [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued investment quotas of $3.08 billion to some qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Starting from July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will continue to be imposed on imported stainless - steel billets and hot - rolled stainless - steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for a period of 5 years [2] - The movie "Ne Zha: Rebirth of the Demon Child" ended with a domestic box office of 154.45 billion yuan and 324 million viewers, and the global box office exceeded 159 billion yuan [2] - From January to June, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises were 1836.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.8%, and the decline in June was 18.5% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening [2] - Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and it is expected that the domestic supply of photovoltaic glass will decline rapidly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：仓单矛盾缓解，偏弱运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游工厂开始复产，盘面或回调 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注实际现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 1 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 3）根据钢联资讯，海外媒体报道印尼某重要金属加工园区内一座镍冶炼厂已恢复生产。今年 3 月该 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: June 30, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **L利多因素**: Nickel ore prices are firm, with some products reducing production to address cost inversion, providing cost support. Domestic nickel ore port inventories are decreasing, and raw materials are in a tight supply situation [3]. - **利空因素**: There is an overall surplus of nickel elements, and supply pressure persists. Downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are reducing production due to production losses [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, prices are under pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 盘面信息 - **镍期货价格**: The latest values of Shanghai Nickel Main Contract, Shanghai Nickel Continuous One, Shanghai Nickel Continuous Two, and Shanghai Nickel Continuous Three are 120,480 yuan/ton, 120,480 yuan/ton, 120,550 yuan/ton, and 120,700 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 3,030 yuan/ton, 2,940 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, and 2,710 yuan/ton, and weekly growth rates of 2.58%, 2.50%, 2.35%, and 2.35% respectively. The LME Nickel 3M is at 15,150 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 90 US dollars/ton and a weekly growth rate of 2.30% [4]. - **持仓量和成交量**: The latest position volume is 78,738 lots, an increase of 26,731 lots or 51.4% from the previous week. The trading volume is 94,188 lots, a decrease of 1,899 lots or 1.98% from the previous week [4]. - **仓单数和基差**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 21,257 tons, a decrease of 221 tons or 1.03% from the previous week. The basis of the main contract is -1,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 405 yuan/ton or 34.76% from the previous week [4]. - **不锈钢期货价格**: The latest values of Stainless Steel Main Contract, Stainless Steel Continuous One, Stainless Steel Continuous Two, and Stainless Steel Continuous Three are 12,620 yuan/ton, 12,620 yuan/ton, 12,575 yuan/ton, and 12,530 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 180 yuan/ton, 230 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton, and weekly growth rates of 1%, 1.86%, 1.78%, and 1.79% respectively [4]. - **持仓量和成交量**: The latest position volume is 107,173 lots, a decrease of 78,734 lots or 42.35% from the previous week. The trading volume is 142,077 lots, a decrease of 67,010 lots or 32.05% from the previous week [4]. - **仓单数和基差**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 112,327 tons, a decrease of 1,576 tons or 1.38% from the previous week. The basis of the main contract is 435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 6.45% from the previous week [4]. - **镍现货价格**: The latest values of Jinchuan Nickel, Imported Nickel, 1 Electrolytic Nickel, Nickel Beans, and Electrowon Nickel are 120,850 yuan/ton, 118,350 yuan/ton, 119,550 yuan/ton, 117,400 yuan/ton, and 118,050 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 600 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, 550 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, and 550 yuan/ton, and daily growth rates of 0.50%, 0.51%, 0.46%, 0.51%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. - **库存情况**: Domestic social nickel inventories are 38,223 tons, a decrease of 1,160 tons from the previous period. LME nickel inventories are 204,294 tons, an increase of 78 tons from the previous period. Stainless steel social inventories are 992.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 8.5 thousand tons from the previous period. Nickel pig iron inventories are 34,610 tons, an increase of 3,148 tons from the previous period [4][6]. 一级镍供给和库存 - **产量情况**: Not provided in the given content - **库存情况**: Domestic social nickel inventories (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventories show seasonal trends [15]. 上游镍矿 - **价格情况**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) shows a historical trend [17]. - **库存情况**: Chinese port nickel ore inventories by port show seasonal trends [17]. 镍铁 - **价格情况**: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average price of Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) show historical trends [19]. - **产量情况**: The monthly production of Chinese nickel iron and Indonesian nickel pig iron shows seasonal trends [20][22]. 下游硫酸镍 - **价格情况**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) show historical trends [24][26]. - **利润率情况**: The profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China show seasonal trends [28]. - **产量和产能情况**: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors show seasonal trends [30]. 不锈钢 - **产量情况**: The monthly production of stainless steel shows seasonal trends [35]. - **库存情况**: Stainless steel inventories show seasonal trends [33]. - **利润率情况**: The profit margin of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils shows seasonal trends [35].

Market Review - The main contract for stainless steel closed at 12,635 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% (+95 CNY), and a single position of 224,900 lots, which is a decrease of 48,262 lots compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - A stainless steel plant in East China has entered a regular maintenance period until June 30, which is expected to impact the production of 300 series stainless steel by nearly 10,000 tons [2] - As of June 27, the benchmark price for stainless steel plates was 11,764.29 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.63% compared to the beginning of the month (12,207.14 CNY/ton). On June 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 112,446 tons of stainless steel warehouse receipts, a decrease of 421 tons from the previous trading day [3] Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy has increased the cost of nickel resource supply. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, which will exacerbate raw material disruptions. The production capacity of Indonesian nickel iron is increasing, leading to a significant rebound in output, while nickel iron prices have recently dropped, reducing support for raw material costs. Steel mills are maintaining normal production but are reducing the output of the severely loss-making 300 series stainless steel due to cost pressures, although total output remains at historically high levels, indicating ongoing supply pressure. Demand is entering a traditional off-season, with increased macro market uncertainty and export demand pressure, while downstream performance remains cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is not performing well. On the technical side, the reduction in positions has weakened short positions, breaking through the MA10 pressure. The recommendation is to observe for the time being [4] - New Lake Futures reported that a market rumor indicated Qingshan plans to reduce production by about 150,000 tons in July, primarily affecting the 300 series. This news has significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in stainless steel prices. However, due to overall weak consumption of stainless steel, the rebound is expected to be limited [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers, but weak macro - expectations limit the upside. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high levels in the medium - to - long term. Aluminum prices are supported by the macro - environment, low inventory, and high aluminum - water ratio, but the consumption off - season restricts the upside. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels [4]. Zinc - Short - term overseas interest - rate cut expectations boost zinc prices, but downstream acceptance is low after the price increase. In the medium - to - long term, a rebound - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel futures market is expected to adjust weakly within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 124,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is high, demand is soft, and inventory reduction is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 [11]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to tight supply, but pessimistic demand expectations prevail. A strategy of shorting at high levels based on supply - side recovery and inventory inflection points is recommended [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable but hard to boost. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 62,000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 78,940 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,610 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,260 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 121,650 yuan/ton, up 1.76% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,700 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production in April (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [11]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose to 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1.41% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 60,600 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate premium decreased by 220 yuan/ton to - 480 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 83,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [17].

Group 1: Market Overview - The main nickel futures contract in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high since June 12, closing at 120,830 yuan/ton, up 2.33% [1] - The decrease in geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has positively impacted the nickel market, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining [1] - Domestic nickel prices have seen a decline, with the current spot price at 119,775 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from the end of last year [1] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - In May 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 34.77% month-on-month to 3.9272 million tons, but decreased by 14.79% year-on-year [2] - The Philippines remains the primary source of nickel ore, with 3.6058 million tons imported, accounting for 91.82% of the total imports for the month [2] - The market is concerned about potential oversupply due to the removal of export restrictions on nickel ore in the Philippines, while Indonesian nickel ore remains tight in the short term [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Insights - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease by 2.91% month-on-month in June, with a total output of 3.3623 million tons [3] - The demand for nickel is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and slow recovery in manufacturing orders, leading to a focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied, with nickel prices expected to face downward pressure [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the nickel market may experience a combination of supply contraction and demand substitution to address the oversupply issue [4] - The short-term outlook for nickel prices is mixed, with potential for a rebound above 120,000 yuan/ton, but also risks of volatility and downward pressure in the second half of the year [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of Indonesian policies and the development of new energy and semiconductor demands for long-term growth opportunities [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]