Group 1 - The external disturbances are improving faster than expected, leading to a potential new peak in the market in the second half of the year [1][8][11] - The domestic policy environment is improving, which may alleviate profit pressures on companies [23][24] - The Hong Kong capital market is undergoing profound changes, with a focus on two long-term investment themes: large finance and technology [5][16] Group 2 - The report suggests selecting industries with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in the technology sector, which is currently at a low valuation and experiencing a recovery [2][31][32] - The AH premium is expected to have further downward space, with a long-term central tendency below 25% driven by a weaker dollar [4][54][55] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks is supported by improving corporate earnings, with expectations for continued recovery in EPS and ROE [4][23][24] Group 3 - The report highlights the importance of foreign capital in the Hong Kong market, noting that southbound trading accounts for 40% of transactions, indicating a shift in pricing power towards domestic institutions [3][40][42] - The technology sector, which constitutes nearly one-third of the market capitalization, is expected to see improved earnings prospects due to easing negative pressures [24][27] - The report emphasizes the potential for structural opportunities in sectors like social services, textiles, and aviation, which are currently undervalued yet experiencing high demand [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with various sub-sectors experiencing growth and opportunities as domestic consumption trends improve [1][10]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Overview - Since early 2025, there has been a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, and final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [1]. - The implementation of policies such as the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" has injected vitality into the consumer market, leading to significant increases in tourism and dining revenues during holidays [1]. - The upcoming mid-year reporting season is expected to be a critical point for validating the recovery in the consumer sector [1]. Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with the liquor sector under pressure while leading brands maintain steady growth due to strong brand influence [2]. - The beer sector benefits from consumption upgrades and product innovation, while the snack sector is growing due to health-conscious and personalized consumption trends [2]. Group 3: Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile and apparel industry is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly in the sportswear segment, driven by increased awareness of fitness among consumers [3]. - Major sports brands are investing in R&D to launch high-tech, high-performance products to meet consumer demands for quality and functionality [3]. Group 4: Retail Sector - The traditional retail sector is facing challenges from online shopping, leading to a decline in consumption; however, cross-border e-commerce leaders are showing strong growth [4]. - The high growth in import and export trade in Yiwu and the opening of global trade centers are providing new opportunities for cross-border e-commerce companies [4]. Group 5: Social Services Sector - The social services sector is witnessing a surge in cross-border tourism demand, supported by inbound travel policies and the travel needs of younger and older demographics [5]. - Online travel agencies are launching personalized and diverse travel products to cater to varying consumer needs [5]. Group 6: Light Manufacturing Sector - The light manufacturing industry is facing short-term export pressures, but segments like home furnishings, packaging, and pet food are performing well [6]. - The recovery in the real estate market is boosting demand in the home furnishings sector, while the packaging industry benefits from the growth of e-commerce and express delivery [6]. Group 7: Home Appliances Sector - The home appliances industry is experiencing a significant recovery in domestic demand, driven by government subsidies for replacing old appliances [7]. - While the export market faces uncertainties due to tariff policies, long-term growth potential remains strong as global economies recover and Chinese brands enhance their competitiveness [7]. Group 8: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong consumer sector is characterized by scarce assets and high growth in earnings, indicating strong performance among leading companies [8]. Group 9: Trend in Niche Markets - The trendy toy industry is seeing strong performance from leading companies, with significant growth in revenue, net profit, and profit margins [9]. - The high-end and trendy gold jewelry sectors are achieving growth through unique designs and brand advantages, catering to young consumers' demand for personalized, high-quality products [9]. - The new-style tea beverage sector is showing significant differentiation, with leading brands achieving double-digit growth and strong store expansion [9]. Group 10: Policy Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to boost domestic consumption, with fiscal subsidies playing a crucial role in driving growth [10]. - Sectors such as home appliances and consumer electronics are likely to benefit from policies promoting the replacement of old products, while offline service consumption is set to see new development opportunities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the non-ferrous metals sector leads the gains among various industries [2] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced the highest increase of 1.66%, with a transaction volume of 806.93 billion yuan, up by 82.56% from the previous trading day [2] - The steel industry rose by 0.98%, with a transaction volume of 114.66 billion yuan, an increase of 35.33% compared to the last trading day [2] - The coal industry saw a rise of 0.84%, with a transaction volume of 68.80 billion yuan, up by 83.14% from the previous day [2] - Other notable sectors include basic chemicals and defense industry, both increasing by 0.74% [2] Stock Highlights - Leading stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector include Haixing Co., which rose by 10.03% [2] - In the steel sector, Baogang Co. increased by 5.97% [2] - Yunmei Energy in the coal sector saw a rise of 10.05% [2] - Other significant gainers include Fumiao Technology in basic chemicals, which surged by 20.02% [2]

ERN DU HISTHER 行业日报 | 北交所 缩量震荡,关注电力负荷创新高、城市更新、人形机器人等证券院报告 025年07月17日 北交所市场点评 -- 20250716 · 核心结论 行情回顾:1)指数层面:7月16北证A股成交金额达 198.8亿元,较上一 交易日下降 33.2 亿元,北证 50 指数收盘价为 1415.9,上涨 0.3%,PE TTM 为 67.20 倍。北证专精特新指数收盘价为 2419.4,上涨 0.4%;2)个股层 面:当日北交所268家公司中121家上涨,9家平盘,138家下跌。其中涨 幅前五的个股分别为:广道数字(29.9%)、云创数据(20.1%)、基康仪 器(13.7%)、春光药装(10.1%)、田野股份(7.0%);跌幅前五的个股 分别为:国义招标(-10.1%)、天润科技(-6.0%)、科润智控(-5.0%)、 中纺标(-4.9%)、则成电子(-4.6%)。 行业日报 | 北交所 内容目录 分析师 曹森元 S0800524100001 19821289688 caosenvuan@research.xbmail.com.cn 相关研究 北交所:结构性分化加剧,城市 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months [46]. Core Insights - In June 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year, although it represents a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [2][14]. - The growth rate of retail sales in urban and rural areas has both declined, with urban growth at 4.8% and rural growth at 4.5% [16][21]. - Online retail sales from January to June 2025 totaled 74,295 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, accounting for 30.27% of total retail sales [4][38]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales in June 2025 were 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a month-on-month decline of 1.6% [2][14]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in May [14][15]. Segment Analysis - Among 16 categories of goods, five categories (Chinese and Western medicines, beverages, tobacco and alcohol, cosmetics, and petroleum products) experienced negative growth, while others showed positive growth, particularly home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture, all exceeding 20% growth [3][20]. - Essential goods like grain and oil (+8.7%) and daily necessities (+7.8%) saw a decline in growth rates, while furniture (+28.7%) and automobiles (+4.6%) showed increased growth [20][24]. Online Retail - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 74,295 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [4][38]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 61,191 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.0% [41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverages, social services, and retail, highlighting opportunities in the gold and jewelry market due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset, and the cosmetics sector, which is seeing increased acceptance of domestic brands [9][42][44]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in home appliances and furniture due to ongoing government subsidies and policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][42].

Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - Q2 2025 GDP shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, supported by export gains offsetting construction sector drag [3][4][9] - The industrial production in June increased by 1.0 percentage points to 6.8% year-on-year, while the service sector remained stable [3] - The disposable income growth for residents slightly decreased to 5.4%, with consumer spending showing marginal recovery [4] Group 2: Consumer Market Insights - June retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, impacted by the timing of the 618 shopping festival and regional subsidy controls [20][21] - The contribution of "trade-in" spending to retail sales has diminished, with June's trade-in spending progress estimated at 54% [5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from potential policy support for domestic consumption, particularly in the liquor segment [20][25] Group 3: Industry Specific Analysis - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in retail sales growth, with a focus on top liquor brands for strategic investment [20][25] - The machinery sector, particularly 隆盛科技, is positioned for growth with a projected revenue of 2.24 billion yuan in 2024, driven by its EGR systems and electric motor components [31][32] - The company is expanding into humanoid robotics, leveraging its precision manufacturing capabilities and established client relationships with major automotive players [33] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the "emotional consumption" theme, particularly in gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29][30] - Specific recommendations include leading brands in the liquor industry and innovative companies in the snack sector, which are expected to maintain strong growth [23][25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A-share major indices mostly rose, with the three major indices showing divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, briefly falling below 3,500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose and then declined. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Sector performance varied, with the social services and automobile sectors leading the gains and the steel sector leading the losses. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Imports and exports improved against the backdrop of easing Sino - US trade relations. - In terms of financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating that residents' and enterprises' willingness to invest and consume may have improved with the support of loose monetary policies. - For individual stocks, the profit situation of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts remains good. - Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in programs for social retail has weakened. However, financial data shows that the effects of loose monetary policies have emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. With the release of mid - year report performance forecasts and the approaching Politburo meeting at the end of July, the market is optimistic about the first - half earnings of listed companies, and bulls may pre - arrange. The stock index has long - term upward potential, but weak economic data in June will put short - term pressure on the market, and the market may fluctuate around the 3,500 mark. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while the medium - to - long - term strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of IF (2509), IH (2509), and IF (2507), IH (2507) contracts decreased, while the prices of IC (2509), IM (2509), IC (2507), and IM (2507) contracts increased. For example, the IF (2509) contract was at 3,971.0, down 10.4; the IM (2509) contract was at 6,298.0, up 23.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1,264.4, down 5.0; the IM - IC monthly contract spread was 437.8, up 24.0 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 1,790.0 to - 27,854.00, while the net positions of the top 20 in IH decreased by 207.0 to - 14,671.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also changed [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 36.2, up 2.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices changed. The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,740.90, down 6.3; the CSI 1000 was at 6,462.06, up 19.2 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 146.1734 billion yuan, down 17.327 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 189.0406 billion yuan, up 5.016 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume was 201.657 billion yuan, up 10.454 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 60.49%, up 35.90 percentage points; the Shibor was 1.466%, down 0.069 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Foreign Trade**: In June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.3%. The trade surplus was 825.97 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.7%. The trade surplus was 4,212.51 billion yuan [2]. - **Social Financing**: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 12% more than the same period last year. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [2]. - **GDP**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In Q1, GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and in Q2, it increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [2][3]. - **Consumption and Industry**: In June, social consumer goods retail sales were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, social consumer goods retail sales were 2,454.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased by 6.4% year - on - year [3]. - **Investment**: In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. After deducting the impact of price factors, it increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [3]. - **Real Estate**: From January to June, national real estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 442.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 502.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The national real estate climate index was 93.60 [3][4]. - **Monetary Data**: At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% on July 16, with 14 sectors experiencing gains, led by social services and automotive sectors, which rose by 1.13% and 1.07% respectively [1] - The steel and banking sectors saw the largest declines, with steel down by 1.28% and banking down by 0.74% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The main funds in the two markets experienced a net outflow of 14.265 billion yuan, with 12 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The public utilities sector had the highest net inflow of 2.823 billion yuan despite a decline of 0.20%, followed by the pharmaceutical and biological sector, which rose by 0.95% with a net inflow of 2.095 billion yuan [1] Steel Industry Performance - The steel industry declined by 1.28% with a net outflow of 588 million yuan, out of 44 stocks in the sector, only 7 saw gains while 36 experienced losses [2] - Among the stocks with net inflows, Fushun Special Steel led with an inflow of 53.565 million yuan, followed by Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes and Yongjin Co., with inflows of 13.426 million yuan and 5.454 million yuan respectively [2] Individual Stock Performance in Steel Sector - Major stocks with significant net outflows included Liugang Co. (-9.16%), Hesteel Co. (-3.41%), and Baosteel Co. (-1.48%), with net outflows of 1.162 billion yuan, 855.319 million yuan, and 751.885 million yuan respectively [3][4] - Other notable stocks with substantial outflows include Hangang Co. (-0.11%) and Maanshan Steel (-1.48%), with outflows of 719.629 million yuan and 455.659 million yuan respectively [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with major indices mostly declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03% to close at 3503.78 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both decreased by 0.22%, closing at 10720.81 points and 2230.19 points respectively. The STAR 50 Index, however, increased by 0.14% to 997.63 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 3276 stocks that rose, while 1928 stocks fell, and 212 stocks remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1442 billion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, the top performers included Social Services, Automotive, Pharmaceutical and Biological, Light Industry Manufacturing, and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, with respective increases of 1.13%, 1.07%, 0.95%, 0.94%, and 0.85%. Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Steel, Banking, Non-Ferrous Metals, Non-Bank Financials, and Construction Decoration, with decreases of 1.28%, 0.74%, 0.45%, 0.43%, and 0.42% [1][10] - The leading concept sectors today were Continuous Limit Up, Animal Vaccines, First Limit Up, and others, while sectors like Circuit Boards, Lithium Mining, and Industrial Metals faced declines [2][12]