Group 1 - The core logic of gold prices has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and the restructuring of the global monetary system [2] - The recent volatility in precious metals is expected to stabilize, with gold finding a bottom around 4400 USD for London gold and 1000 CNY for Shanghai gold [2] - The significant drop in precious metals prices is primarily driven by technical factors rather than fundamental deterioration, with strong macroeconomic support for gold prices remaining intact [3] Group 2 - The recent decline in tin prices is noted, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.81%, attributed to inventory depletion and ongoing supply issues from Indonesia and Myanmar [3] - The gold ETF from E Fund (159934) offers a convenient investment method for investors with securities accounts, allowing T+0 trading of gold [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to oscillate and rebound, while silver is likely to decline from its high level. Copper trading remains cautious with prices oscillating. Zinc will trade in a range, and lead shows weak supply - demand with oscillating prices. Tin will consolidate, and aluminum investors should focus on post - holiday inventory reduction. Alumina will see oscillating convergence, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. Platinum will recover during oscillations, and palladium will rebound following the precious metals sector. Nickel is affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, and the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesia. Stainless steel will have frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost support center moving up [2]. 3. Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - **Price Movements**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 1,090.12 with a - 1.41% daily decline and 1114.50 in the night session with a 2.82% increase. Gold T + D closed at 1,091.49 with a - 1.30% daily decline and 1111.00 in the night session with a 2.97% increase. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18799 with a - 6.19% daily decline and 19840.00 in the night session with a 3.51% increase. Silver T + D closed at 18197 with a - 7.16% daily decline and 18848 with a 3.97% increase [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's central bank's gold reserves increased for the fifteenth consecutive month, with a 40,000 - ounce increase in January. The US hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine before June [4][6]. Copper - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,100 with a - 0.87% daily decline and 101490 in the night session with a 1.39% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,060 with a 1.59% increase [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The State Council executive meeting plans to make better use of funds. The US and Iran reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" in nuclear negotiations. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considers including "copper concentrate" in national reserves. Glencore Canada suspended major investments in a smelter, and Anglo American's Q4 2025 copper production decreased by 14% year - on - year. Capstone Copper will resume full production at a mine [7][9]. Zinc - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24450 with a 0.23% increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3383 with a 2.56% increase [10]. - **News**: China's central bank's gold reserves increased for the fifteenth consecutive month, and the US hopes for a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement before June [11]. Lead - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16510 with a - 0.27% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1965.5 with a 0.59% increase [14]. - **News**: The State Council executive meeting plans to make better use of funds, and the US and Iran reached a consensus on "maintaining dialogue" in nuclear negotiations [15]. Tin - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 357,000 with a - 0.94% decline and 366,450 in the night session with a 1.69% increase. The LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 47,155 with a 0.35% increase [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Zelensky said the US hopes to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict before summer. Trump plans to negotiate with Iran again, and he expects the Dow Jones to reach 100,000 by the end of his term [18][20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23315 with a - 70 decline, and the LME aluminum 3M closed at 3110 with an 84 increase. The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2824 with a 34 increase, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21950 with a 35 increase [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US and India reached a temporary trade framework, and Trump nominated a new Fed chair [26]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Movements**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 506.00 with a - 6.35% decline, and palladium futures 2606 closed at 410.50 with a - 7.27% decline [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A US aircraft carrier entered a position for a potential strike on Iran. The semiconductor industry is expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026. Japan held a parliamentary election, and Iran's foreign minister set red lines in negotiations [29][30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 131,840 with a - 2,590 decline, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,670 with a - 140 decline [31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, adjusted nickel ore benchmark prices, and planned to cut nickel ore production targets. Some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use, and a ship carrying nickel ore sank [30][31][34].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has raised hawkish expectations in the market, leading to a stronger dollar and short-term negative impacts on the pricing of base and precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The market's hawkish sentiment is expected to negatively affect the pricing of base and precious metals in the short term [1] - Observations on U.S. Treasury bond fluctuations indicate that the macro narrative is unlikely to reverse in the short term, with precious metals showing more of a pullback after previous trends and risk release [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for platinum is projected to be tight by 2026, while palladium is shifting from a decade-long supply deficit to a surplus [1] - From a fundamental perspective, platinum is expected to have a stronger upward drive compared to palladium [1] - Upcoming production guidance from platinum group metal mining companies for 2026 will be crucial to monitor for changes in supply [1]

国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-09 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌抛售风险缓解，金银或企稳震荡 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格延续剧烈波动，白银遭遇二次抛售。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）在经历 外盘1月30日的暴跌后，上周一沪金触及跌停，沪银周一、周二连续两日跌停；后在杠杆显 著去化后，市场情绪短期修复，金银略有反弹。但由于美元走强和美国科技股持续遭到抛 售，叠加比特币等加密货币暴跌，市场流动性紧缩风险卷土重来，并再度蔓延至贵金属市 场，金银上周四、周五双双遭到二次抛售，尤其是白银，伴随着CME第6次提保，伦敦现货 白银上周五早盘暴跌至64美元/盎司附近，再创阶段性新低并抹去年内涨幅。（2）直至上 周五，美伊谈判不确定性扰动市场，加上市场流动性恢复，科技股抛压暂缓、美股三大指 数和比特币集体上涨，市场流动性恢复，金银逐步企稳回升。同时，美国2月消费者信心意 外上升至5 ...

Market Performance - Japanese Nikkei 225 index increased by 5% to 57,095.65, while the South Korean KOSPI index rose over 4% to 5,304.93 [1][2] - The Australian S&P 200 index saw a modest increase of 0.45%, closing at 8,850.20, and the Indian market rose by 0.32% to 83,580.40 [2] Precious Metals - Spot gold prices rose to approximately $5,000 per ounce, while spot silver prices surpassed $80 per ounce [1] - London gold and silver prices increased by 1.03% and 2.66%, respectively, with gold at $5,017.534 and silver at $79.851 [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.37% to $4,998.2, while COMEX silver futures increased by over 4% to $80.13 [3] Market Trends and Analysis - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with both gold and silver showing sharp price fluctuations [8] - Research from Zhengxin Futures indicates high uncertainty in the market, suggesting a cautious approach, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on precious metals due to geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [8] - China Galaxy Securities notes that the market may continue to experience a consolidation phase, with attention on the U.S. January CPI data to gauge inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations [8] - The core logic for gold's long-term bullish trend has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and global monetary system restructuring [8]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2026-02-09 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 9431.31 | | 52 | 周最高 | 11180.33 | | 52 | 周最低 | 4295.55 | 高波行情渐退，逢低布局有色板块 l 投资要点 贵金属：波动率预计已达到极致，黄金企稳。贵金属继续波动， 伦敦金最低点跌至 4400 美金左右，沪金最低跌至 1000 元左右，波动 率在周一放大到极致后开始减退，也为本轮调整找到了最低点——伦 敦金 4400 美元/沪金 1000 元。白银 ETF 的增持可能是短期折价带来 的套利机会所致，不能简单作为企稳信号。短期来看，黄金基本见底， 以市场给出的前低作锚进行交易。长期来看，沃什的降息+缩表政策 的实施，会对长端美债带来难以对冲的风险，美债走出牛陡的情况下， 黄金值得增配。 行业相对指数表现 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-02 -8% 7% 22% 37% 52% 67% 82% 97% 112% 12 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，港股贵金属股盘初拉升，万国黄金涨超5%，中国白银集团涨近5%，潼关黄金、紫金矿业 均涨超4%。 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong precious metal stocks experienced a significant rise in early trading, with WanGuo Gold (03939.HK) increasing by over 5% [1] - China Silver Group (00815.HK) saw a nearly 5% increase, while Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) and Zijin Mining (02899.HK) both rose by over 4% [1] - Other companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) also reported gains of over 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) for 15 consecutive months has positively impacted the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, which saw a price increase of 2.61% on February 9 [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) experienced a strong rise, recovering above the 5-day moving average with a price increase of 2.61% [1][10]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector showed significant gains, with Hunan Silver leading at over 4%, followed by Shenghe Resources, Northern Rare Earth, and Xingye Silver Zinc, all rising by more than 3% [1][12]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The PBOC has increased its gold reserves to 7,419 million ounces as of January 2026, up from 7,415 million ounces at the end of December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation [3][12]. - The demand for gold from the central bank remains strong, which is expected to provide a supportive floor for gold prices, even amid short-term fluctuations [4][13]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may rebound to a ten-year high of $5,600 in the second quarter, with potential to reach $6,000 by the end of the year, driven by ongoing bullish sentiment in the market [4][13]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain a strong performance due to supply-demand mismatches, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades, with high profitability anticipated to last for 3-5 years [4][13].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.93% at 4103.54 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index opened 1.5% higher, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.95% [1] - Sectors such as film and television, photovoltaic equipment, precious metals, and CPO concepts experienced a strong opening [1]