| 股指期货价差日报 | * | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 价 | 差 | 品 | 种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | IF期现价差 | -50.28 | 0.74 | 6.10% | 4.80% | | | | | IH期现价差 | -24.31 | -1.09 | 8.60% | 4.80% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -117.71 | 9.59 | 3.20% | 1.80% | IM期现价差 | -129.78 | 4.85 | 90.00% | 4.60% | | 次月-当月 | -33.00 | -1.40 | 1.60% | 10.10% | 季月-当月 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term tariff event shocks are暂缓, focus on subsequent economic impact and negotiation progress. - Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, with a rising trend in the first month after the holiday. - Different commodity sectors have different focuses, such as the impact of travel consumption on crude oil prices, and the influence of domestic policies on industrial products [60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - **Key Events and Data**: During the domestic May Day holiday, important events and data include the US Trump's 100 - day State of the Union address on April 29, China's April Caixin PMI on April 30, etc. [4] - **Tariff Impact**: The tariff event's short - term impact on market sentiment has eased, but attention should be paid to its impact on the economy. Some countries have reached preliminary agreements with the US, while others are in the process of negotiation, counter - measures, or have adopted loose policies [5][7][8]. - **Political Bureau Meeting**: The April Political Bureau Meeting emphasized economic recovery, recognized increased external pressure, and called for more active macro - policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, to support the real economy [6]. High - Frequency Observation - **Sino - US Tariff Dispute**: After the US launched a tariff blitz on April 2, Sino - US trade volume has significantly decreased, and China's container exports to the US have been severely affected [9]. Stock Index - **Performance Support**: The overall A - share profitability has been recovering from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, which may support the stock index. Sectors such as social services, public utilities, and environmental protection have significant profit improvement and low valuations [14]. - **Policy Support**: In Q1 2025, the proportion of public funds' stock allocation increased, while the proportion of foreign capital's shareholding in A - shares decreased. Policy - based funds showed strong willingness to support the market, and large - scale purchases of index ETFs may lead to an upward trend in large - cap stock indices [17]. Treasury Bond - **Curve Flattening**: The long - term interest rate is at a low level, and the Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, waiting for policy or fundamental catalysts [29]. Container Shipping Futures - **Capacity Adjustment**: The number of cancellations on the US route has increased significantly, and some ships on the US route have been transferred to the European route, increasing the supply pressure. The capacity in May is gradually increasing [30][36]. Exchange Rate - **Renminbi Fluctuation**: Currently, the economic expectations, Sino - US interest rate differentials, and trade policy uncertainties are neutral. In the short term, the RMB is expected to remain strong and fluctuate within a range [43]. Strategy - **Calendar Effect**: Domestic stock indices show significant holiday seasonality, rising in the first month after the holiday. Different commodity sectors have different performance characteristics during the holiday [46]. Scenario - **Interest Rate Cut and Recession**: In recession samples, gold leads the commodity market, and the commodity sectors first decline and then rise. In non - recession samples, the performance of commodity sectors varies [49]. - **US "Stagflation"**: Historically, during stagflation periods, assets are highly differentiated. Gold and crude oil perform well in resisting stagflation [58]. Event - **US Inflation**: Tariffs may push up US inflation in 1 - 2 quarters, and the inflation elasticity this time may be greater than the previous round [55].

| | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | 2025年4月29日 | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 最新值 | 价差 品种 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | -51.02 | F期现价差 | -3.23 | 5.30% | 4.70% | | -23.23 | H期现价差 期现价差 | -2.42 | 9.40% | 5.40% | | -127.30 | IC期现价差 | 1.29 | 2.80% | 1.10% | | -148.06 | IM期现价差 | 4.85 | 85.00% | 4.00% | | -31.60 | 次月-当月 | 4.00 | 3.20% | 10.90% | | -90.00 | 李月-崇月 | 3.20 | 1.20% | 8.60% | | -114.80 | 元月-当月 | 1.60 | 1.20% | 14.40% | | -58.40 | F跨期价差 李月-次月 | -0.80 | ...

配置上，从规避不确定性的角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利 以及不依赖短期业绩的题材料将占优。我们认为市场将在广义上的内循环、新的科技主题轮动。 图片来源：摄图网 PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 关注内循环 僵持阶段看什么 策略聚焦 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 玛西高娃 贸易战僵持阶段，超预期的刺激和基于妥协的贸易协议都很难发生；僵持阶段比的是两国的经济韧性，中 国的政策选项更多、空间更大、能耗更久，对美国而言，7月前大规模的国债到期可能会是特朗普关税政策 的第一个动摇点；A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心， 港股可能是阶段性的薄弱环节，但也要看到内地资金依旧整体明显低配港股。配置上，从规避不确定性的 角度，自主科技、受益欧洲资本开支扩张的板块、纯内需必选消费、稳定红利以及不依赖短期业绩的题材 料将占优。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期；特朗普政策侧 重点超预期。 点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) is operating weakly, with the 06 contract closing at 1358.4 points, a decline of 9.40%. Spot freight rates continue to be weak, and shipping companies' price cuts have intensified market pessimism about May and June freight rates. The 06 contract has basically followed the decline of spot freight rates and is now at a discount to the 04 contract [1]. - Under the influence of factors such as the regular recovery of cargo volume, the overflow of capacity from the US line, limited capacity control by shipping companies, and tariff policies, the central freight rate for large containers in early May has dropped below $2000. The market is pessimistic about May and June freight rates, but there are still expectations for the peak seasons in July and August. In the current weak reality, there is a lack of upward driving force, and caution is also exercised in terms of space [1]. - The current point of contention lies in the performance of the peak season. The market has become insensitive to shipping companies' price increases, and it is necessary to see the arrival of the inflection point of peak - season cargo volume. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term. Before the post - ponement of the peak - season point is falsified, the 06 - 08 reverse spread can continue to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price | Contract | Latest Transaction Price (Points) | Latest Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest (Unilateral) | Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | Short Positions (Top 20 Members) | Net Long Positions (Top 20 Members) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2504 | 1439 | - 0.42 | 87 | 909 | 743 | 824 | - 81 | | EC2506 | 1358.4 | - 9.40 | 86705 | 44468 | 24379 | 25911 | - 1532 | | EC2508 | 1577 | - 6.93 | 34562 | 33302 | 21679 | 22592 | - 913 | | EC2510 | 1299.6 | - 3.88 | 10589 | 16862 | - | - | - | | EC2512 | 1465 | - 4.06 | 2667 | 4248 | - | - | - | | EC2602 | 1304 | - 3.43 | 1116 | 2806 | - | - | - | | Total | - | - | 135726 | 102595 | 46801 | 49327 | - 2526 | [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes | Indicator | Latest Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Previous Period | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | Two Periods Ago | Month - on - Month Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Index (Weekly) - SCFIS (Points) | 1508.44 | 7.6% | 1402.35 | - 1.4% | 1422.42 | - 3.5% | | SCFI ($/TEU) | 1316 | - 2.9% | 1356 | 1.5% | 1336 | 1.4% | | Spot Freight Rate (Daily) - TCI(20GP) ($/TEU) | 1441 | 0.0% | 1441 | - 1.1% | 1457 | - 1.3% | | Spot Freight Rate (Daily) - TCI(40GP) ($/FEU) | 2281 | - 1.4% | 2315 | - 1.9% | 2359 | - 1.3% | [1] Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity and Related Information | Category | Details | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Capacity - Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | - | 500628 | | Capacity - Increase in Asia - Europe Route Capacity Deployment (TEU) | - | 0 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | Global | 1.8 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 17000TEU+ Container Ships | 0.9 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships | 0.6 | | Capacity - Idle Capacity Ratio (%) | 8000 - 11999TEU Container Ships | 1.5 | | Speed - Average Speed of Container Ships (Knots) | - | 13.98 | | Speed - Average Speed of 17000TEU+ Container Ships (Knots) | - | 15.4 | | Speed - Average Speed of 12000 - 16999TEU Container Ships (Knots) | - | 15.11 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Rotterdam | 27.75 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Hamburg Port | 11.73 | | In - Port Capacity (10,000 TEU) | Singapore | 35.78 | | Bypass Situation - Number of Ships Passing Through the Gulf of Aden (Vessels) | - | 7 | | Bypass Situation - North - bound Traffic Volume of the Suez Canal (Vessels) | - | 4 | | Bypass Situation - South - bound Traffic Volume of the Suez Canal (Vessels) | - | 2 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 9000TEU ($/day) | - | 106000 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 6500TEU ($/day) | - | 73500 | | Time - Charter Rates (6 - 12 months) - 2500TEU ($/day) | - | 33750 | [4]

文 ｜ 扈世民 张昕玥 张庆焕 ▍ 航空：波音交付扰动，供给增速或进一步降至1 ~ 2%，关注五一前布局机会。 对美关税反制提升产业链采购成本，行业供给进一步受限，2 0 2 5年国内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~ 2%。 中国出台一系列关于美国对华加 征关税的反制措施，目前源自美国的进口商品需缴纳1 2 5%的关税。我国在商用飞机和关键零部件方面对进口产品依赖度较高，2 0 2 4年进口航 空航天器机器零件中来自美国的商品金额占比5 0%，因此产业链受关税影响较大。一方面，面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各航司将 暂停波音飞机的引进计划。假设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出计划（按照各公司此前披露的计划，2 0 2 5~2 7年国内三大航波音 订单1 8 8架，占整体订单3 2%），则我们测算2 0 2 5 / 2 0 2 6年三者的机队增速或降低1 . 5 p c ts/ 2 . 1 p c ts至2 . 9%/ 2 . 9%，若假设延迟波音的退出计 划，则机队增速或降低0 . 3 p c t/ 0 . 8 p c t至4 . 1%/ 4 . 2%。另一方面，航司日常维修所需的进口航材也将面 ...

Group 1: Logistics and Aviation - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand policies benefiting aviation, logistics, and regional shipping leaders in response to external shocks [1] - Domestic airlines are expected to pause Boeing aircraft introduction plans due to rising procurement costs, potentially reducing fleet growth rates for major airlines to 2.9% by 2025/2026 [1] - The anticipated delay in Boeing's exit plan and increased procurement costs may lead to a further decline in aircraft introduction growth rates to 1%-2% by 2025 [1] - The article suggests that the upcoming May Day holiday presents an opportunity for investment in the aviation sector due to falling international oil prices and a nearing price inflection point [1] Group 2: Logistics and Regional Shipping - The expansion of domestic consumption policies is expected to stimulate demand in the logistics sector, particularly benefiting cyclical leaders closely related to the industry [1] - Historical analysis indicates that proactive fiscal policies can drive the recovery of bulk commodity demand, with the domestic trade industry's CR3 approaching 80% in 2024 [1] - Changes in demand are projected to impact freight rates, with potential transshipment demand benefiting Asian regional container ship owners [1] Group 3: Credit Bonds - The article discusses the impact of tariff policy changes on the Chinese dollar bond market, highlighting that recent adjustments are more related to liquidity tightening and risk premium increases rather than credit risk changes [3] - The current market for Chinese dollar bonds shows potential for attractive configurations, especially with expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - It is recommended to focus on short to medium-term AT1 bonds from state-owned banks, which may benefit from the stabilization of U.S. Treasury rates [3] Group 4: Real Estate - The article notes the central government's push to reform the pre-sale system for commercial housing, with cities like Zhengzhou and Shenzhen experimenting with selling completed properties [5] - This shift is expected to help control supply, stabilize housing prices, and improve quality, despite potential impacts on developers' turnover rates [5] Group 5: Financial Industry - The global ETF market is projected to reach $15.09 trillion by 2024, with a highly concentrated market share among leading institutions [6] - The Chinese ETF market faces challenges such as smaller scale and limited product diversity, necessitating innovation and improved liquidity mechanisms for sustainable growth [6] - The entry of state funds into the A-share market is anticipated to create rapid development opportunities for domestic ETF businesses [6] Group 6: Aerospace - The article highlights the growing domestic demand for the C919 aircraft, with major airlines signing significant orders, indicating a shift towards domestic production capabilities [7] - The C919's EU certification is expected to be finalized soon, and there are positive signals from Southeast Asia regarding the introduction of Chinese commercial aircraft [7] - The domestic aircraft industry is projected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in civil aviation, with a focus on technological advancements in domestic engine production [7]

文 ｜ 扈世民 张昕玥 张庆焕 应对外部冲击，政策层近期高度重视"做大做强国内大循环"，采取以旧换新补贴扩容、特定群体补贴、类"消费券"政策等政策组合提振内需，关 注受益内需政策加码的航空、物流和区域集运龙头。1）航空：面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各航司将暂停波音飞机的引进计划，假 设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出计划，则我们测算2 0 2 5 / 2 0 2 6年三大航的机队增速或降低1 . 5 p c ts/ 2 . 1 p c ts至2 . 9%/ 2 . 9%。若假设 延迟波音的退出计划叠加航材采购成本上升，我们预计2 0 2 5年国内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~2%。关税反制进一步限制航空业供给，票价 拐点渐近，国际油价下跌释放利润空间，关注五一前航空布局机会。2）物流：以旧换新国补扩容及潜在的消费刺激政策有望传导至需求端，选 取品类相关度高的顺周期龙头。3）区域集运：复盘历史，积极的财政政策有望推动大宗商品需求的修复，2 0 2 4年内贸行业CR3接近8 0%，预计 需求变化将传导至运价端，同时潜在转运需求有望传导至亚洲区域集装箱船东，建议关注受益于内需修复弹性的内贸集运龙头 ...

扈世民｜中信证券 物流和出行服务首席分析师 S1010519040004 物流｜关税影响探讨（二）：优选内需政策受益的航空、物流和集运龙头 应对外部冲击，政策层近期高度重视"做大做强国内大循环"，采取以旧换新补贴扩 容、特定群体补贴、类"消费券"政策等政策组合提振内需，关注受益内需政策加码的 航空、物流和区域集运龙头。1）航空：面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各 航司将暂停波音飞机的引进计划，假设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出 计 划 ， 则 我 们 测 算 2025/2026 年 三 大 航 的 机 队 增 速 或 降 低 1.5pcts/2.1pcts 至 2.9%/2.9%。若假设延迟波音的退出计划叠加航材采购成本上升，我们预计2025年国 内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~2%。关税反制进一步限制航空业供给，票价拐点渐 近，国际油价下跌释放利润空间，关注五一前航空布局机会。2）物流：以旧换新国 补扩容及潜在的消费刺激政策有望传导至需求端，选取品类相关度高的顺周期龙头。 3）区域集运：复盘历史，积极的财政政策有望推动大宗商品需求的修复，2024年内 贸行业CR3接近80%，预计需求变化将传 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The expectation of price increase in May for spot goods is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically the same as those at the end of April. The demand on the US route has dropped significantly due to high tariffs and port - calling fees, and airlines may disperse ships to other routes, increasing supply pressure and making price increases more difficult. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible oversold rebound caused by the easing of Sino - US frictions, and the risk of decline in far - month contracts may be greater [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The expectation of price increase in May is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically flat with those at the end of April. The large container quotes are mostly between $1900 - 2200, HPL quotes are higher, and it plans to further raise quotes for the second half of May. But there is no collective price - supporting action from shipping alliances yet. - Supply side: High US tariffs and port - calling fees on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries have led to a significant drop in demand and freight rates on the US route. Airlines' dispersion of ships to other routes may increase supply pressure and make price increases more difficult. - Suggestion: Pay attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino - US frictions in the short term. The decline risk of far - month contracts may be greater [8] 2. Industry News - From April 14th to 18th, the Chinese export container shipping market was basically stable, with the comprehensive index slightly decreasing. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The market expects the "tariff war" to put pressure on Q2 trade and economy. - On April 18th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1370.58 points, down 1.7% from the previous period. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The European shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates slightly falling. The Mediterranean shipping market was slightly stronger, with spot booking prices rising slightly. - The WTO adjusted the forecast of global merchandise trade volume from a 2.7% increase at the beginning of the year to a 0.2% decline. The US - China shipping market saw a decline in cargo volume, and the freight rate on the US - West route decreased slightly. - Discussions on a Gaza cease - fire agreement are close to completion. The US government plans to charge additional fees on Chinese ships docking in US ports. Maersk will adjust peak - season surcharges for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada. US President Trump said he is confident of reaching an agreement with China [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From April 14th to 21st, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 7.6% from 1402.35 to 1508.44, while the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 13.8% from 1587.84 to 1368.41 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on April 21st, including EC2504, EC2506, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][22]