原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/25 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/18 | 67.34 | 69.28 | 70.17 | 0.69 | 0.88 | -1.94 | 1.71 | 215.34 | 21.16 | 245.30 | 33.75 | | 2025/07/21 | 67.20 | 69.21 | 70.32 | 0.77 | 0.83 | -2.01 | 1.22 | 213.19 | 20.33 | 250.92 | 36.18 | | 2025/07/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Crude Oil - Near - term supply - demand is in a tight - balance with marginal relief. Brent's main contract is expected to trade between $67 - 70 per barrel. The market should focus on Middle - East exports and feedstock demand from major consumers in Q3, as well as the progress of China - US trade negotiations [2]. Asphalt - Supply is at a low level year - on - year, and demand improved significantly in Q2. Q3 demand will determine the de - stocking strength during the peak season. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and the crack spread will be stronger [4][5]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure in Q3 is slightly less than expected, and demand for high - sulfur feedstock is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising with no specific demand drivers [6][7]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene - Due to factors such as new device production, maintenance, and market demand, short - term prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [8][11][13][15][18][20]. Plastic PP - There is still significant production capacity pressure in Q3, and the terminal demand is weak year - on - year. Currently, it is mainly macro - led, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply - demand has weakened, but short - term prices are expected to be strong due to macro - policies. Caustic soda fundamentals are marginally weaker, but the short - term price is also expected to be strong due to policy and sentiment [29]. Glass and Soda Ash - Macro and industry factors are in resonance, with both futures and spot prices rising. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. Methanol - International device start - up rates are rising, and domestic supply is abundant. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [36]. Urea - Domestic supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips [38]. Double - coated Paper - The market is partially declining, and the supply - demand is weak. Industry players are cautiously waiting and watching [40]. Logs - The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang has increased. Near - term contracts are in the delivery verification stage, and it is recommended to wait and watch [43][44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - RU and NR contracts are recommended to hold long positions, and the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 should be reduced for observation [48]. Butadiene Rubber - BR contracts are recommended to short - sell a small amount, with a stop - loss set at the night - session high [52]. Pulp - The market is in a stalemate, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and watch [53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2509 rose $0.78 to $66.03 per barrel, Brent2509 rose $0.67 to $69.18 per barrel, and SC2509 rose to 507.1 yuan per barrel [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2509 closed at 3598 points (+0.31%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3458 points (+0.32%) at night [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU09 closed at 2893 (+1.08%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3567 (+0.31%) at night [5]. - **PX**: PX2509 closed at 7010 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price rose to $856 per ton [7]. - **PTA**: TA509 closed at 4888 (+0.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated between 4775 - 4870 yuan [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2509 closed at 4565 (+1.78%) at night, and the spot price was negotiated around 4542 - 4545 yuan [12]. - **Short - fiber**: PF2509 closed at 6566 (+0.71%) at night, and the spot price was stable [15]. - **PR**: PR2509 closed at 6096 (+0.89%) at night, and the spot market trading was average [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: BZ2503 closed at 6320 (+1.51%) at night, EB2509 closed at 7439 (+1.71%) at night, and the spot prices were in different ranges [18]. - **Plastic PP**: LLDPE market prices had partial fluctuations, and PP spot prices in different regions had different changes [22]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC prices mostly rose, and caustic soda prices were stable [25][26]. - **Glass**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1346 yuan per ton (+2.98%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [30]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1430 yuan (+1.6%) at night, and spot prices in different regions had changes [33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures closed at 2494 (+1.18%) at night, and spot prices in different regions varied [35]. - **Urea**: The urea futures closed at 1785 (-0.17%), and the spot prices were stable [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: The market had partial declines, and prices in Shandong region decreased [40]. - **Logs**: The price of radiata pine logs in Taicang increased, and the 9 - month contract fluctuated [43]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: RU09 rose 1.05%, NR09 rose 1.26%, and BR09 remained unchanged [46][47][50]. - **Pulp**: The SP09 contract closed at 5454 (-0.04%), and spot prices of different pulp types were in different ranges [53]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Middle - East, US - Venezuela relations, and potential EU - US trade agreements [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Price changes in different regions, production status of refineries, and inventory data [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Inventory changes in ARA and Singapore, and trading in the Singapore spot window [5][6]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Downstream product sales, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [8][10][12][15][17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Device start - up rates, new device production plans, and import data [19][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Device maintenance, start - up rates, and downstream industry start - up rates [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Inventory changes, device start - up rates, and new device production plans [26][27][29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Policy consultations, price changes in different regions, and inventory changes [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Production volume, device start - up rates, and international device status [36]. - **Urea**: Production volume, start - up rates, and export policies [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Production status of paper mills, inventory changes, and raw material prices [40][41]. - **Logs**: Price changes, pre - arrival ships, and freight rates [43][44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia, and tire production line start - up rates [48][51][52]. - **Pulp**: Industry standard formulation and downstream paper mill demand [54]. Logic Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand balance is affected by Middle - East exports and macro - factors, and long - term supply may be in excess [2]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is affected by production and demand seasons, and prices are affected by oil prices [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by different factors such as device start - up and demand seasons [6][7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR**: Supply is affected by new device production and maintenance, and demand is affected by the off - season [8][11][13][15][18]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase in Q3, and prices are affected by cost and policy [20]. - **Plastic PP**: There is production capacity pressure, and demand is weak, but macro - factors play a leading role [24]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand has weakened, but macro - policies support prices [29]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Macro and industry policies drive price increases, but attention should be paid to inventory and demand digestion [32][34]. - **Methanol**: Abundant supply and stable demand lead to short - term oscillation [36]. - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, but demand is expected to improve, and prices are affected by exports [38]. - **Double - coated Paper**: Supply - demand is weak, and factories try to maintain prices [41]. - **Logs**: Downstream demand is weak, and price support and valuation are affected by multiple factors [44]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Tire production line start - up rates and macro - factors affect prices [48][52]. - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is in a stalemate, and prices are affected by downstream demand [53]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and gasoline crack spreads are weak while diesel crack spreads are stable [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading is oscillating narrowly, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading is on hold, and attention should be paid to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot [7]. - **PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, PR, Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, and arbitrage and options are on hold [8][11][13][15][18][20]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening in the short - term, and arbitrage and options are on hold [25]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading is strong, and arbitrage and options are on hold [30]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Unilateral trading is strong, arbitrage is to go long on glass and short on soda ash, and options are on hold [32][35]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral trading is oscillating and strengthening, arbitrage is on hold, and sell call options [38]. - **Urea**: Unilateral trading is to buy on dips, arbitrage is on hold, and sell put options on dips [39]. - **Double - coated Paper**: No specific trading strategies are provided. - **Logs**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage and options are on hold [45]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: Hold long positions in RU and NR, reduce the spread between RU2509 and NR2509 for observation, and options are on hold [48]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Short - sell a small amount of BR, and arbitrage and options are on hold [52]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is to wait and watch, and arbitrage is on hold [55].

Summary of GCC Economic Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies, particularly in the context of oil production, economic growth, and the impact of geopolitical tensions and US tariffs on the region's economic outlook [2][3][4]. Core Insights 1. **Economic Growth Trends**: - GCC economic growth accelerated to 2.2% in 2024 from 1.4% in 2023, with oil GDP contracting by 2.7% after a 5.8% contraction in 2023. Non-hydrocarbon activity grew by 4.6% due to strong domestic demand and reform efforts [13][46]. - The forecast for 2025 anticipates growth accelerating to 4.3%, driven by a projected 5.1% increase in hydrocarbon GDP and a 4.2% rise in non-hydrocarbon GDP [50]. 2. **Oil Production and Prices**: - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to significantly boost oil GDP growth [38][40]. - Oil prices are projected to average $65 per barrel in the short term, with expectations of fluctuations impacting government revenues and economic stability [27][31]. 3. **Impact of US Tariffs**: - The US has a trade surplus with GCC states, and recent tariff policies have not imposed punitive tariffs on these countries. However, indirect effects on global economic activity and oil markets are being closely monitored [57][61]. - The GCC's export exposure to China is significant, with Oman having exports to China constituting over 28% of its GDP, indicating vulnerability to global trade tensions [82]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: - GCC monetary policy is closely tied to US Federal Reserve actions due to the region's exchange rate regime. A weakening labor market in the US may lead to rate cuts, which could influence non-oil activity in the GCC [97][100]. - The report suggests that domestic liquidity conditions, influenced by oil prices, will significantly affect the transmission of US monetary policy to the GCC [103]. 5. **Budget and Current Account Balances**: - The aggregate budget deficit for the GCC is expected to widen to 3.8% of GDP in 2025 from 2.4% in 2024, while the current account surplus is projected to decrease to 4.5% of GDP from 5.5% [48][50]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The economic fallout from geopolitical tensions is a key concern, with potential impacts on trade and investment flows in the region [2][15]. - **Inflation Trends**: Headline inflation has returned to pre-pandemic levels, but core inflation remains elevated, influenced by services inflation [17][22]. - **Sectoral Performance**: Non-oil sectors are expected to continue performing well, supported by domestic demand and ongoing reforms, despite challenges from global economic conditions [44][50]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the GCC's economic resilience amid fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties, while also emphasizing the importance of monitoring external economic influences, particularly from the US and China.

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and growth of the Huaxia CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (513910), which has seen significant increases in both share count and total assets in 2024 [1][2] - As of July 24, 2024, the ETF's latest share count was 2.082 billion, with a total size of 3.337 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 57.36% in shares and 90.50% in size compared to December 31, 2023 [1] - The ETF has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, with its performance benchmark being the adjusted return of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index [1] Group 2 - The current fund manager, Lu Yayun, has managed the ETF since its inception on February 7, 2024, achieving a return of 60.26% during the management period [2] - The ETF's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Orient Overseas International, CITIC Bank, China Petroleum, China Everbright Bank, China Ocean Shipping, Agricultural Bank of China, China National Offshore Oil, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with varying ownership percentages [2] - The trading liquidity of the ETF has been robust, with a cumulative trading amount of 3.357 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, averaging 168 million yuan per day [1]

富时中国A50指数连续 U.UU(U.UU%) -0.10(-1.21%) +0.07(+0.62%) 光大银行 2410.69亿市值 7.16亿成交额 4.08 -0.05(-1.21%) 得經 中国平安 中国太保 中国人保 0 3745.77亿市值 3606.67亿市值 10576.50亿市值 19.62亿成交额 7.89亿成交额 29.59亿成交额 58.08 37.49 8.47 +0.10(+0.27%) -0.56(-0.95%) +0.04(+0.47%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18277.68亿市值 2264.01亿市值 4795.34亿市值 61.40亿成交额 16.09亿成交额 22.85亿成交额 185.58 123.54 1455.00 -36.50(-2.45%) -4.88(-2.56%) -2.01(-1.60%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2467.60亿市值 2816.75亿市值 3288.71亿市值 50.00亿成交额 21.05亿成交额 81.33亿成交额 673.30 341.96 141.49 +3.31(+0.98%) +4 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...

大行晨報 - 油價短線或見支持 - 2025 年 7 月 25 日星島日報 / 頭條日報 https://www.stheadline.com/columnists/finance- property/3476486/%E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1- %E6%B2%B9%E5%83%B9%E7%9F%AD%E7%B7%9A%E6%88%96%E8%A6%8B%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81 %E5%A4%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%99%A8%E5%A0%B1 ...

沙特增产可能会拉低油价（Reuters） 自认为是产油国盟主的沙特本应劝说其他国家遵守规则，但沙特在6月却开始超额生产。强势生产的背 景是中国旺盛的需求。有观点认为中国似乎在为不测之事做准备…… Kpler的高级原油分析师施穆宇指出，中国似乎在为不测之事做准备。他认为，由于无法预测美国政府 的行动，中国政府可能在战略性增加原油储备。 美国总统特朗普7月14日表示，考虑对购买俄罗斯石油和天然气的第三国征收100%关税。虽然有50天的 宽限期，但如果实际实施，购买俄罗斯能源的中国将被迫寻找替代来源。 产油国的盟主沙特阿拉伯开始增产。6月，沙特原油产量大幅超出生产配额，出口量也达到约两年来的 新高。一直主导石油输出国组织（OPEC）成员国产量调整的沙特自行"违反"规则引发震惊。强势生产 的背景是中国旺盛的需求。 以沙特为首的OPEC与俄罗斯等非成员国组成的"OPEC+"的部分国家自愿从4月开始逐步减产，每日产 量缩减220万桶，以增加原油供应。产油国被要求在分配的生产配额范围内增产。 国际能源署（IEA）7月中旬发布的月度报告显示，沙特6月的产量为每天980万桶，环比增加了71万桶 （增幅8%）。超出配额43万桶。 ...

金十图示：2025年07月25日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：盘面整体跌多涨少，酿酒、保险、煤炭等板块 多数回调 -0.07(-0.85%) +0.01(+0.18%) +0.12(+1.06%) 光大银行 2428.42亿市值 3.49亿成交额 4.11 -0.02(-0.48%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 明 3732.50亿市值 3585.50亿市值 10572.86亿市值 16.43亿成交额 4.60亿成交额 10.67亿成交额 37.27 58.06 8.44 -0.12(-0.32%) -0.58(-0.99%) +0.01(+0.12%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18369.51亿市值 2278.16亿市值 4812.03亿市值 35.06亿成交额 8.13亿成交额 12.71亿成交额 1462.31 186.74 123.97 -29.19(-1.96%) -3.72(-1.95%) -1.58(-1.26%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2413.33亿市值 2530.35亿市值 3168.31亿市值 10.53亿成交额 1 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月25日 (原油) 三季度旺季以来石油市场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%， OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的供需盈余压力始终存在。7月原油市场进入伊以冲突剧烈波动后的震荡 修复期,近期月差、现货升贴水转弱,海外柴油裂解在东西套利窗口打开后亦有所回落,此前支撑 市场的旺季强现实因素转弱。尽管美日协议以利好落地,美国与欧盟、中国的贸易战风险仍令市场 面临需求预期冲击，近期相关利空风险大于地缘端利多，油价以震荡承压为主；8月底、9月初伊 核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 【责金属】 隔夜美国7月标普全球制造业PMI初值49.5不及预期但服务业PM155.2表现偏强,周度初请失业金人 数21.7万人维持低位,经济数据体现韧性。美国与多个国家关税协议有望陆续达成,截止日前市场 不确定性仍存，但超预期对抗的概率在下降,贵金属宽幅震荡为主。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜收跌，与多数工业品相比,近期铜市场情绪偏谨慎,倾向铜价上方整数关阻力大。美欧服 务业PM1强劲，德国制造业动能转折， ...