Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The impact of oil price shocks on the banking sector is limited, with a sustained dividend attribute [3] - The transmission of oil price shocks follows three main channels: economic, policy, and investment [3] - The overall risk exposure from oil price shocks is manageable, with a marginal pressure on asset quality estimated at about 1.5% [3] Summary by Sections 1. Impact Mechanism of Oil Price Shocks on Bank Stocks - Oil price increases lead to input inflation, raising production costs for downstream enterprises, which affects credit demand and asset quality differently across sectors [7][9] - The policy response to inflation limits monetary easing, delaying LPR adjustments, which marginally benefits bank margins [7][9] - Investment sentiment shifts towards high-dividend, low-valuation defensive sectors, enhancing the attractiveness of bank stocks [7][9] 2. Credit Scale: Limited Overall Pressure, Structural Differentiation - Oil price increases are estimated to drag down credit growth by approximately 0.1-0.4 percentage points, with the impact on China's GDP being about half of the global average [10][8] - Upstream sectors like oil and gas may see improved cash flow and financing needs, while downstream sectors face cost pressures [13][14] - Domestic fiscal policies, particularly infrastructure investments, are expected to cushion the credit demand downturn [16] 3. Interest Margins: Input Inflation Delays Rate Cuts, Marginally Positive - The anticipated rise in inflation delays the pace of LPR cuts, reducing downward pressure on asset yields [19] - The cost of liabilities is expected to continue improving due to the ongoing repricing of high-cost deposits [17] - The overall interest margin is nearing its bottom, with limited downward space [18] 4. Asset Quality: Limited Marginal Risk Exposure, Overall Stability - The risk exposure from oil price-sensitive sectors is manageable, with only about 1.5% of total bank loans at risk [21][24] - Upstream sectors benefit from improved cash flow, while downstream sectors face potential credit risks, particularly among smaller enterprises [21][22] - The overall asset quality of banks is expected to remain stable, supported by high provisioning levels [30][28] 5. Investment Perspective: Highlighting the Dividend Attributes of the Banking Sector - The current environment of stable risk-free rates and elevated risk premiums favors the banking sector's defensive value [32][35] - The banking sector is positioned to benefit from a "platform period" for risk-free rates, maintaining dividend attractiveness without significant profit erosion [34] - Long-term growth and asset quality will be critical as the sector navigates potential credit risks from sustained high oil prices [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant decline in international gold futures, with a drop of 2.7% on March 26 and a cumulative decline of over 16% in March, prompting banks in China to issue risk warnings regarding precious metals trading [1]. Group 1: Market Response - Major Chinese banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, have issued announcements to investors about the heightened market risks associated with precious metals due to recent volatility [1]. - Banks are advising clients to carefully assess their risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in precious metals trading, emphasizing a rational investment approach [1]. - Several banks are adjusting their trading rules for precious metals, with measures such as limiting the purchase of accumulated gold and increasing transaction costs for short-term trades [1]. Group 2: Specific Bank Adjustments - China Merchants Bank has adjusted the trading spread for gold accounts to 5 yuan per gram, with an increase of 2 yuan per gram on the buying side, effective until June 27 [2]. - Jiangsu Bank will implement a new pricing structure for gold accumulation services starting January 1, 2026, with a base fee of 1.5 yuan per gram, and promotional rates for specific periods [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Multiple institutions remain optimistic about the long-term strategic value of gold, despite the current market being in a "wait-and-see" mode due to a lack of significant macroeconomic data [3]. - CITIC Securities' macro team indicates that the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, although short-term fluctuations are expected until liquidity shocks subside [4]. - The report suggests that the current market dynamics are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which could affect gold prices in the near term [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) with a target price of 8.32 CNY / 7.77 HKD [2][5] Core Insights - The bank reported a total operating income of 28.648 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.128 billion CNY, up 5.35% year-on-year [2][6] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased by 4 basis points to 1.08%, while the provision coverage ratio increased by 2 percentage points to 367% [2][6] - The bank's net interest income grew significantly, driven by stable interest margins and asset quality improvements, with a net interest margin of 1.60% for the year [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Operating Income**: 28.648 billion CNY in 2025, with projected growth rates of 4.36%, 5.04%, and 6.03% for 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E respectively [6][11] - **Net Profit**: 12.128 billion CNY in 2025, with expected growth rates of 2.93%, 2.95%, and 4.19% for the following years [6][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: 1.07 CNY for 2025, projected to increase to 1.18 CNY by 2028 [6][11] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: 6.58 for 2025, expected to decrease to 5.96 by 2028 [6][11] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: 0.61 for 2025, projected to decline to 0.50 by 2028 [6][11] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The NPL ratio is expected to improve to 1.03% in 2026E and further to 0.99% by 2028E, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [9][11] - The provision coverage ratio is projected to decrease to 346.95% in 2026E and 339.89% in 2028E, reflecting strong risk mitigation capabilities [9][11] Market Position and Strategic Outlook - The bank is well-positioned in the Chongqing region, benefiting from a strong network and low-cost funding advantages, with significant growth potential in corporate lending [2][5] - The bank's focus on national and regional strategic opportunities, such as the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, supports its future performance [2][5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a general decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.09% to close at 3889.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.41% at 13606.44 points, the Sci-Tech 50 Index decreasing by 2.02% to 1288.81 points, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.34% to 3272.49 points [1][14] - Overall, there were 915 stocks that rose while 4490 stocks fell, with a total market turnover of 1943.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 236.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only coal, oil and petrochemicals, and banking sectors saw gains, with increases of 0.59%, 0.47%, and 0.37% respectively. In contrast, the computer, non-bank financial, telecommunications, environmental protection, and construction decoration industries led the declines, with drops of 2.75%, 2.74%, 2.35%, 2.33%, and 2.33% respectively [1][14] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included lithium battery electrolyte, lithium battery anode, lithium ore, thermal power, power batteries, sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, lithium batteries, central enterprise coal, selected coal mining, central enterprise banks, Ningde Times industrial chain, lithium battery cathode, salt lake lithium extraction, and selected automobile complete vehicles [2][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The development of science - innovation bonds has gone through three stages: the pilot exploration period from 2015 - 2021, the rapid development period from 2022 - 2024, and the innovation and upgrading period since 2025. As of the end of February 2026, the market stock scale reached 3.7 trillion yuan [10][15]. - Bond financing plays a key complementary role. It is suitable for growth - stage and mature - stage enterprises, is a key tool for technology - enterprise mergers and acquisitions, and has a more suitable financing term for technology development compared to bank loans [20]. - In the primary market, science - innovation bonds show characteristics such as scale expansion, longer terms, and industry diversification. The issuance scale has been increasing year by year, the term structure is becoming more long - term, and the industry distribution is gradually diversifying [30]. - In the secondary market, the credit risk pricing of "science and innovation" has not been fully reflected. Most science - innovation bonds have no significant valuation difference from non - science - innovation bonds, the turnover rate of science - innovation bonds has slightly declined, and the rise and fall of technology stocks have limited impact on science - innovation bonds in China [44]. - From an investment perspective, the science - innovation bond market is still in the cultivation stage. In the short term, there are excess spread opportunities in industries such as light manufacturing, coal, power equipment, communication, and medicine and biology. In the long term, the support for the hard - technology field is expected to be further enhanced, and there is still a possibility of obtaining excess returns by sinking into the hard - technology field [57]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Ten - year Evolution Process of Science - innovation Bonds - **Pilot Exploration Period (2015 - 2021)**: The exchange and inter - bank markets explored the issuance of bonds such as dual - innovation bonds, science - innovation corporate bonds, and high - growth bonds, accumulating experience for subsequent development [10][11]. - **Rapid Development Period (2022 - 2024)**: The system design was continuously improved, and the scale of science - innovation bonds in the exchange and inter - bank markets expanded rapidly. By the end of 2024, the stock in the exchange market was nearly 1 trillion yuan, and that in the inter - bank market was nearly 400 billion yuan [14]. - **Innovation and Upgrading Period (Since 2025)**: The "science and technology board" of the bond market was innovatively launched. With policy guidance, the science - innovation bond market expanded rapidly, and three major breakthroughs were achieved in supporting construction [15]. 3.2 Key Complementary Role of Bond Financing - **Suitable for Growth - stage and Mature - stage Enterprises**: Science - innovation bonds are mainly targeted at growth - stage and mature - stage enterprises, which match the attributes of bond financing and are suitable for the light - asset characteristics of some growth - stage enterprises [21]. - **Key Tool for Mergers and Acquisitions**: Science - innovation bonds are a key tool for technology - enterprise mergers and acquisitions, with greater flexibility and pertinence than traditional credit, and can avoid equity dilution. The application of science - innovation bonds in the field of mergers and acquisitions has increased [23]. - **More Suitable Financing Term**: The financing term of science - innovation bonds is more suitable for technology development than bank loans, and it also provides stronger capital support for financial institutions [28]. 3.3 Primary Market: Market Scale and Structural Characteristics - **Issuance Scale**: Since 2022, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds has increased year by year. In 2025, the issuance scale reached 2.3 trillion yuan, and as of the end of February 2026, the market stock scale reached 3.7 trillion yuan [31]. - **Term Structure**: The issuance term of science - innovation bonds shows a long - term trend, gradually matching the financing needs of science - and - technology innovation enterprises [31]. - **Industry Distribution**: Construction decoration, non - bank finance, and public utilities are the main issuers. The number of science - innovation bonds issued by hard - technology core fields such as electronics, medicine and biology, computer, and communication has been increasing, and traditional manufacturing and consumer industries have also begun to participate in the issuance [34]. - **Issuer Rating**: AAA - rated issuers are the main force, and the proportion of AA+ and AA - rated issuers is increasing [39]. - **Issuer Nature**: Central enterprises and local state - owned enterprises have a high proportion of issuance, and the proportion of private enterprises is gradually increasing [40]. - **Use of Raised Funds**: For financial institutions, 95% of the funds actually flow to science - and - technology innovation - related uses. For non - financial enterprises, issuing science - innovation bonds takes into account supplementing liquidity, optimizing the financing structure, and reducing financing costs [42]. 3.4 Secondary Market: Price - volume Performance and Stock - bond Correlation - **Valuation Difference**: Most science - innovation bonds have no significant valuation difference from non - science - innovation bonds, and science - innovation bonds of weak - quality issuers have a credit premium [45]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rate of science - innovation bonds has slightly declined and is close to that of non - financial credit bonds, indicating that the market is in the transition from policy - driven to endogenous development [51]. - **Impact of Technology Stocks**: The rise and fall of technology stocks have limited impact on science - innovation bonds in China. The "science and technology" of Chinese science - innovation bonds is mainly reflected in the use of funds, while that of US "technology bonds" is directly related to the business attributes of issuers [53]. 3.5 Science - innovation Bonds from an Investment Perspective - **Short - term**: There are excess spread opportunities in industries such as light manufacturing, coal, power equipment, communication, and medicine and biology. The excess spread in industries with a high proportion of private enterprises is more significant [57]. - **Long - term**: The support for the hard - technology field is expected to be further enhanced. There is still a possibility of obtaining excess returns by sinking into the hard - technology field. Attention can be paid to the risk - return ratio of the credit enhancement mechanism [60].

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in the express delivery industry, emphasizing a shift from quantity to quality due to anti-involution policies, which have led to a notable increase in single-ticket revenue despite a decline in overall business volume [7][9]. Industry Overview - In February 2026, the total business volume of express delivery services in China reached approximately 12.11 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 10.9%. However, when considering the combined data for January and February, there was a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.1% [8]. - The report notes that the anti-involution measures are effectively supporting price levels in the industry, with the average single-ticket price in February 2026 increasing by 12.2% year-on-year [9]. Company Insights - The report identifies that the leading companies in the express delivery sector, particularly the Tongda system, have shown resilience with significant growth in single-ticket revenue. For instance, Shentong and Yunda reported year-on-year increases of 19.6% and 15.4% in single-ticket revenue, respectively [9]. - SF Express demonstrated a strong performance with a notable increase in both volume and price, achieving a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.8% in single-ticket prices [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that excel in service quality, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as Shentong, which has shown significant improvement in operational data. The expectation is that the ongoing anti-involution efforts will continue to support the industry's pricing power and profitability [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions and emphasizes the importance of understanding what level of returns can be sustained by investors, highlighting that high risk does not necessarily equate to high returns [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Fund Performance - Yang Peihong's analysis indicates that funds with a maximum drawdown between 15% and 30% over the past six years achieved an average return of 72.25%, translating to an annualized return of approximately 9.6% [4]. - A selection of active equity funds with a maximum drawdown of less than -20% and an annualized return exceeding 8% over the past five years resulted in 11 qualifying products [5]. - Among the funds analyzed, eight products are highlighted for their performance under the specified criteria [7]. Group 2: Fund Managers and Their Strategies - Fund managers Jiang Cheng, Xu Yan, and Yang Xinxin have been consistently tracked, with each achieving annualized returns exceeding 10% under the maximum drawdown condition of 20% [9]. - Jiang Cheng's fund, Zhongtai Xingyuan, has a return of 190.23% since its management began in December 2018, with an annualized return of 15.69% [10]. - Xu Yan's fund, Dachen Competitive Advantage, has a return of 125.24% since December 2019, with an annualized return of 13.89% [15]. Group 3: Risk Management and Investment Philosophy - Xu Yan emphasizes safety as the primary discipline in fund management, stating that avoiding bubbles leads to smaller drawdowns, albeit with potential performance pressures during certain periods [19]. - The article notes that Jiang Cheng's drawdown control is a result of his stringent valuation criteria, which helps maintain a balance between risk and return [14]. - Fund manager Yu Bo focuses on risk identification and employs a systematic approach to manage positions, adjusting equity exposure based on market conditions [44][48]. Group 4: Sector and Asset Allocation - The funds analyzed predominantly invest in sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a focus on high capital adequacy and low-cost debt [13]. - The article highlights the importance of selecting undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals, as emphasized by fund manager Wu Xuan, who has consistently outperformed the market over the past nine years [26][27]. - The investment strategies of fund managers involve a mix of top-down and bottom-up approaches, focusing on valuation and market conditions to guide asset allocation [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company's net profit for 2026, 2027, and 2028 is projected to grow by 10.2%, 9.6%, and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively, with corresponding BVPS of 12.63, 13.82, and 15.12 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.56X, 0.51X, and 0.46X for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, indicating a valuation discount compared to peers [4] - The target price is set at 8.14 yuan per share, reflecting a 10% premium over the comparable company's PB of 0.59X for 2026 [4] Financial Information Summary - Revenue for 2024A is projected at 28,261 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, increasing to 33,294 million yuan by 2028E with a growth rate of 5.6% [5] - Operating profit is expected to rise from 12,848 million yuan in 2024A to 18,422 million yuan in 2028E, with growth rates of 5.4% to 9.4% [5] - The attributable net profit for 2024A is forecasted at 11,513 million yuan, growing to 16,019 million yuan by 2028E, with growth rates of 5.6% to 9.3% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.99 yuan in 2024A to 1.39 yuan in 2028E [5] - The return on average assets (ROAA) is expected to remain stable at around 0.8% across the forecast period [5] Performance Metrics - The net interest margin for the year is expected to stabilize at 1.60%, with a slight increase of 1 basis point [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to improve to 0.98% by 2027E, down from 1.18% in 2024A [10] - The provision coverage ratio is expected to improve to 361% by 2026E, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate/Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [1][5][7]. Core Views - The company's net profit, revenue, and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) for 2025 are expected to grow by 5.35%, 1.37%, and 1.88% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in profitability [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.32 RMB per share for 2025, maintaining a cash dividend payout ratio of 30.05% [1]. - The asset quality indicators are improving, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% as of the end of 2025, down 4 basis points from the previous quarter [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, total assets, total loans, and total deposits are projected to increase by 10.0%, 11.6%, and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable acceleration in credit issuance [2]. - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize at 1.60%, with interest income increasing by 7.85% year-on-year [2]. Non-Interest Income and Cost Control - Non-interest income is projected to decline by 23.92% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in card fees and a decrease in demand for agency services [3]. - The company has successfully managed costs, with business and management expenses decreasing by 0.68% year-on-year, resulting in a cost-to-income ratio of 31.2% [3]. Asset Quality - The company’s NPL ratio is improving, with a coverage ratio of 367% as of the end of 2025, reflecting a robust ability to cover potential losses [4]. - The report highlights a decrease in both the amount and ratio of non-performing loans, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [4]. Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2026-2028 to be 13.3 billion, 14.6 billion, and 16.1 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.4%, 10.0%, and 10.3% respectively [5][10]. - The target price for A and H shares is set at 8.67 RMB and 9.57 HKD, respectively, reflecting a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.70 and 0.68 for 2026 [5].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.03 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 7.79/5.61 | | 市净率 | 0.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 4.46 | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 62,133 上证指数/深证成指 3,931.84/13,801.00 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.55 | | 资产负债率% | 91.64 | | 总股本/流通 A 股(百万) | 11,357/8,838 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/2,513 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 联系人 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 事件：2025 年实现营收 286.5 亿，同比增长 1.4%（9M25：0.7%），归母净利润同比增 ...