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暴跌后,黄金大变脸!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 09:35
铜是全球消费量第三大的金属,仅次于铁和铝。根据美国地质调查局的数据,美国大约有一半的铜依赖进口,其中大部分来自智利。 隔夜,美股三大指数一度跳水下跌,截至收盘,道琼斯工业指数跌0.38%,标普500指数跌0.12%,纳斯达克指数涨0.15%。 消息面上,关税迎密集进展。 隔夜,现货黄金市场遭遇了"黑色星期三",现货黄金价格单日下跌超过1.5%,盘中最低触及3268.02美元,创下6月30日以来新低。今日欧市盘中,黄金 小幅上涨,目前在3310元附近徘徊。 降息预期大变脸! 首先是,特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等产品征收50%关税。 当地时间7月30日,美国白宫表示,美国总统特朗普签署了一项公告,宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税。 公告显示,将自8月1日起对进口半成品铜产品(例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管)及铜密集型衍生产品(例如管件、电缆、连接器和电气元件)普遍 征收50%的关税。 当天,在白宫宣布这一关税后,纽约铜价下跌逾18%。 其次是,特朗普称美国将对韩国征收15%关税。 当地时间7月30日,美国总统特朗普发文称,美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。根据协议,韩国将向美国提供3500亿美元,用于 ...
电网扩建引爆新“铜荒” 2030年铜价剑指1.2万美元?
智通财经网· 2025-07-31 09:11
智通财经APP获悉,随着全球范围内数千亿美元资金投入电网现代化改造与扩建工程,以满足数字化与 清洁能源革命带来的巨大电力需求,铜消费增速已远超行业预期。然而,智利、刚果(金)等主要产铜国 因新矿投资不足导致供应受限,这为铜价长期高位运行埋下伏笔。部分分析师预测,2030年前铜价将突 破每吨1.2万美元的历史峰值,较当前约9700美元/吨的价格上涨23%。 尽管终端用户正寻求替代方案,但铜因其卓越的导电性、耐用性和多功能性仍难以被取代。国际能源署 数据显示,全球电网投资额继2024年创下3900亿美元纪录后,今年预计将突破4000亿美元大关。 咨询公司Benchmark Mineral Intelligence(BMI)战略总监Michael Finch表示,"铜在电网基础设施中常被严 重低估。虽然各国都意识到扩建电网的必要性,却普遍低估了所需的铜材总量",特别是美国、英国和 中国这三大关键市场的投资需求。 据该机构提供的最新预测,全球发电与输电网络升级带来的铜需求将从今年的1252万吨增至2030年的 1487万吨。 数据中心与电动汽车成需求新引擎 美国银行分析师Michael Widmer预计,到2030年 ...
港股铜概念股下跌,中国大冶有色金属跌超6%,江西铜业跌超3%,中国黄金国际、中国金属利用跌超2%!特朗普意外宣布加征新关税致期铜暴跌
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-31 08:40
格隆汇7月31日|港股市场铜概念股集体下跌,其中,中国大冶有色金属跌超6%,江西铜业(600362)股 份跌超3%,兴业合金、中国黄金国际、中国金属利用跌超2%,五矿资源跌近2%。消息面上,美国总统 特朗普意外宣布,对铜加征新关税中,美国期铜大泻两成,创史上最大单日跌幅。 (责任编辑:宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 最新价 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金属 | -6.45% | 0.058 | 10.38亿 | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | -3.85% | 15.980 | 553.34亿 | | 00505 | 兴业台等 | -2.94% | 0.990 | 8.91亿 | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | -2.65% | 7.7 ...
美国将对进口半成品铜征收50%关税,将如何影响墨西哥?
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 08:17
Core Points - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, effective August 1 [2] - The tariffs are part of Trump's ongoing trade policy, which has previously targeted various goods including steel [2][4] - Mexico, as the third-largest exporter of copper products to the U.S., is expected to face significant economic impacts from these tariffs [5][7] Impact on Mexico - The tariffs are projected to result in approximately $1 billion in losses for Mexico annually, as it exported $976 million worth of copper products to the U.S. in 2024 [7] - In the first five months of 2025, Mexico's copper product exports to the U.S. increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, generating $419 million in revenue [8] - The tariffs may also lead to increased competition among domestic U.S. traders, affecting the overall market dynamics [9]
特朗普关税大棒横扫多国,鲍威尔利率“堡垒”岿然不动!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 05:59
Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - The U.S. has reached a "comprehensive" trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff on South Korean goods while allowing full trade access for U.S. products [3] - South Korea will invest $350 billion in U.S.-controlled projects, including $150 billion specifically for U.S.-Korea shipbuilding cooperation, and will purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas [3] - Starting August 1, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on goods from India, citing high tariffs and non-tariff barriers as reasons for the punitive measures [3][4] Group 2: Impact on Other Countries - Brazil will face a 40% tariff increase, bringing the total tariff to 50%, although certain products like wood pulp and oil are exempt [4] - The U.S. will also impose a 50% tariff on imported copper products, which has led to a significant drop in copper futures and affected major copper producers [4][5] Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn that the copper tariffs could raise prices on various products, potentially impacting consumer costs in the U.S. [5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with two officials dissenting for an immediate rate cut, reflecting ongoing economic concerns [6][7] - Recent GDP growth of 3% in Q2 has been viewed skeptically, with analysts suggesting that the improvement is largely due to reduced imports rather than robust consumer spending [9]
墨西哥集团认为亚洲铜长期前景“非常乐观”
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 05:43
Core Viewpoint - Grupo Mexico maintains a "very optimistic" outlook on the long-term growth prospects of the copper industry in Asia despite the recent announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the United States [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - On July 30, the White House announced that President Trump would impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1 [1] Group 2: Company Response - Leonardo Contreras, CFO of Grupo Mexico's mining division, stated that the company will continue to monitor global changes before deciding whether to restart a mothballed smelting project in Arizona [1]
特朗普8月起对半成品铜征收50%关税!纽约铜价暴跌逾18%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-31 05:37
Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on certain imported copper products, effective August 1, which includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [1][2] - Following the announcement, the Comex copper futures price dropped over 18%, closing at $4.630 per pound, marking the largest single-day decline in history [1][2] - The initial market expectation was for a broader tariff covering the entire copper supply chain, but the announcement limited the tariffs to specific products, excluding key raw materials like copper ore and cathodes [1][2] Group 2 - The copper input materials such as copper ore, concentrates, and scrap are not subject to the tariffs under the Section 232 provisions [2] - The announcement negatively impacted U.S. copper producers, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. shares falling approximately 10% and Southern Copper shares declining over 6% [2] - Prior to the announcement, U.S. copper prices were about 28% higher than the benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange [2]
南方铜业预计贸易冲突将对铜造成冲击,但对长期前景保持乐观
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 05:30
Core Viewpoint - The CFO of Southern Copper Corporation, Raul Jacob, expressed concerns about the impact of trade conflicts on the global economy and the copper industry, but remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for copper [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The mining sector anticipates that trade conflicts will negatively affect the global economy and the copper industry [1] - Despite current challenges, the industry is expected to maintain resilience in the long term [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Jacob highlighted a significant price gap between the COMEX and LME, indicating a high likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on copper imports [1] - The Trump administration plans to implement a 50% tariff starting Friday, with Peru being a major supplier of refined copper to the U.S. [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the details of the tariffs and their potential impact on the company, as tariff levels on other goods and countries have been fluctuating [1] Group 3: Company Position - Grupo Mexico's chairman, German Larrea, stated that the company is monitoring the potential effects of tariffs on its business [1] - Southern Copper is in a solid position to handle uncertainties related to the trade environment [1]
港股午评 恒生指数早盘跌1.07% AI概念股逆市走强
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-31 05:11
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.07%, down 270 points, closing at 24,906 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.34% [1] - AI concept stocks showed strong performance, with multiple catalysts for AI applications in the second half of the year, presenting significant investment opportunities [1] - Notable gainers in AI stocks included Meitu Inc. (up 15.26%), Kingdee International (up 11.70%), and Kuaishou-W (up 8.98%) [1] Group 2 - Three Life Sciences Pharmaceutical (SSGJ-707) saw a rise of over 5% due to its partnership with Pfizer, indicating substantial potential for overseas valuation enhancement [2] - Huajian Medical (up over 10%) partnered with BGI to establish an innovative drug intellectual property tokenization fund [2] Group 3 - Jinxin Reproductive Medicine rose by 6.48% as policy benefits gradually materialize, positioning the company as a leader in private assisted reproduction [3] - Copper stocks declined across the board following Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper, with Zijin Mining falling by 4.93% [3] - Gold stocks also experienced a downturn, with Tongguan Gold dropping by 8.67% amid unchanged interest rates from the Federal Reserve [3]
新能源及有色金属日报:关税并未涉及精铜,纽铜大幅走低-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, leading to a significant decline in the Comex premium. If the over 250,000 tons of Comex copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for now [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market has a tight supply pattern, with a significant strengthening of spot premiums. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 79,200 - 79,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 130 - 200 yuan/ton to the current - month contract. The average premium is 165 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. It is expected that the short - term premium will remain firm [2] Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished products like copper tubes and wires, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper and ores. This caused the COMEX copper price to plummet by up to 20% on the day, and the Comex - to - LME price difference has shrunk to about 5% [3] - **Mining End**: Glencore plans to cut about $1 billion in costs by the end of 2026 and has raised the long - term profit forecast for its commodity trading division from $2.2 - 3.2 billion to $2.3 - 3.5 billion. The trading division had a profit of $1.35 billion in the first half of the year [3] - **Smelting and Imports**: The Comex premium has weakened significantly due to the tariff exemption of refined copper, and it has recovered to about 5% of the LME price. If the over 250,000 tons of US copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited growth. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 225 tons to 136,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week [4] Data Tables - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The premium for SMM 1 copper (premium copper) is 165 - 180, for flat - copper is 150, for wet - process copper is 25, the Yangshan premium is 60, and LME (0 - 3) is - 52 [27] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 136,850 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 229,909 tons [27][28] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts are 19,973 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 15.20% [28] - **Arbitrage**: The spread between CU08 - CU06 (continuous third - near - month) is - 30, between CU07 - CU06 (main - near - month) is 0, CU07/AL07 is 3.83, CU07/ZN07 is 3.48, and the import profit is - 313 [28]