Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting recent exchange rate movements and the factors influencing these changes [1][3][6]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 1, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.1496, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Both onshore and offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.2034 and the offshore rate at 7.2136, reflecting daily declines of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively [3][7]. - The yuan's exchange rate reached a two-month low, with a continuous decline over five days leading to a 0.38% drop in July [7]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) officials indicated that the yuan's exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The PBOC emphasized that it does not seek to devalue the yuan for competitive advantages and aims to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the yuan to stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of the year, supported by improving domestic economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [10][12]. - The article notes that foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets are expected to continue, providing support for the yuan's stability [11][12]. Industry Impacts - The article outlines the potential impacts of yuan fluctuations on various industries, indicating that a stronger yuan could benefit import-dependent sectors while posing challenges for traditional export-oriented industries [14]. - Specific sectors such as textiles, aviation, and high-tech equipment may see advantages from a stronger yuan, while traditional foreign trade sectors may face difficulties [14].

Core Insights - The outlook for the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange market in the second half of 2025 is heavily influenced by potential trade agreements with the United States, which will determine the relative performance of Asian currencies, although the impact is expected to be temporary [2][5] - A long-term structural downtrend for the US dollar against Asian currencies is anticipated to persist, as doubts about the dollar's status may continue [2] Currency Performance Summary - The assessment of Asian currencies has been revised upward for Q2 2025 due to an earlier-than-expected decline in the US dollar, which is seen as a lasting trend [5] - Despite potential trade agreements, Asian economies are expected to face pressures, particularly in exports, which may be impacted by a rapid decline in the dollar's exchange rate against Asian currencies [5] - Central banks in Asia may need to intervene to slow the appreciation of their currencies, which could lead to tensions with the US government [5] Currency Scores - The currency scores for Q2 and Q3 2025 indicate varying expectations for different currencies against the US dollar: - CNY: -3 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - HKD: 0 (Q2) to -1 (Q3) - KRW: -3 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - TWD: -3 (Q2) to +3 (Q3) - SGD: -1 (Q2) to +3 (Q3) - MYR: -1 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - THB: -2 (Q2) to +1 (Q3) - PHP: -1 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - INR: -2 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - IDR: -2 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) - VND: -3 (Q2) to +2 (Q3) [6] Trade Agreement Implications - A potential trade agreement between the US and China may not fully eliminate tariffs, which could continue to pressure the Chinese yuan [9] - The timing of any trade agreement will significantly influence the upward movement of Asian currencies, with China's situation likely benefiting Northeast Asian currencies more [9] Geopolitical Context - President Trump's threats regarding tariffs on countries aligning with BRICS nations reflect concerns over the dollar's status, potentially leading to further depreciation of the dollar [7] - The perception of threats to the dollar may prompt policy adjustments from the Trump administration, despite calls for a weaker dollar [7]

研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/31 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/30 | 4.372 | 4.603 | 3.358 | 2.704 | 3.519 | 3.289 | 0.344 | 3.365 | 最新变化 | 0.051 | -0.029 | -0.005 | -0.003 | 0.002 | 0.002 | -0.003 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asian stock market is showing increased sensitivity to global macroeconomic data, particularly after key countries release economic data and central bank policy updates [1] - Recent performance indicates a 0.7% decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index, although it is still on track for a fourth consecutive month of gains [1] - The decline is primarily attributed to underwhelming economic activity in certain Asian economies and significant fluctuations in commodity prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for July in the region fell short of market expectations, indicating weakened business activity and raising concerns about the economic recovery outlook [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while raising its annual inflation forecast, signaling a potential future interest rate hike [1] Group 3: U.S. Economic Context - The market is closely monitoring the trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, with rare dissent from two members, indicating internal disagreements on the interest rate path [5] - Despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, core data suggests that economic momentum may be weakening [5] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta have led to a 1.2% increase in Nasdaq futures and a 0.8% rise in S&P 500 futures, indicating robust profitability in large tech firms, particularly in cloud computing and AI advertising [6] - This performance provides positive support for the overall market [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to closely monitor inflation and growth data from major economies, as uncertainty in monetary policy may lead to continued volatility in exchange rates and stock markets [6] - It is recommended that investors adjust their positions to manage risk exposure and capitalize on trading opportunities amid market fluctuations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has decided to maintain its interest rates, leading to a short-term increase in the USD/JPY exchange rate by 20 points, currently reported at 148.95 [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates unchanged indicates a continuation of its current monetary policy stance [1] - The immediate market reaction saw the USD/JPY exchange rate rise by 20 points, reflecting investor sentiment towards the yen and dollar dynamics [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Team: Macro Team of the Research Center [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on July 29, 2025: The yields varied widely across countries, e.g., the US was 4.321%, the UK was 4.632%, and China was 1.747% [2] - Latest Changes: Yields in most countries had small changes, with the US down 0.091, while France, Germany, etc., had increases [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: There were different trends. For example, the UK had a 0.064 increase in a week, 0.179 in a month, and 0.510 in a year [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on July 29, 2025: The US was 3.910%, the UK was 3.890%, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The US had no change, while Germany increased by 0.023 [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were observed, e.g., the US had a 0.030 increase in a week, 0.010 in a month, and - 0.510 in a year [2] Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - Rates on July 29, 2025: Against the dollar, the Brazilian real was 5.575, the South African rand was 17.888, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The Brazilian real decreased by 0.25%, while the South African rand increased by 0.06% [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were shown, e.g., the Brazilian real had a 0.17% increase in a week, 2.12% in a month, and - 0.41% in a year [2] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Closing Prices on July 29, 2025: The S&P 500 was 6370.860, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44632.990, etc. [2] - Latest Changes: The S&P 500 decreased by 0.30%, while the French CAC increased by 0.72% [2] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were present, e.g., the S&P 500 had a 0.97% increase in a week, 2.79% in a month, and 15.73% in a year [2] Credit Bond Indices - Latest Changes: The US investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.53%, the emerging economies investment - grade credit bond index increased by 0.31%, etc. [2][3] - Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Changes: Different trends were seen, e.g., the US investment - grade credit bond index had a 0.41% increase in a week, 0.20% in a month, and 5.76% in a year [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A - shares were 3609.71, the CSI 300 was 4152.02, etc. [4] - Price Changes (%): A - shares increased by 0.33%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.39%, etc. [4] Valuation - PE (TTM): The CSI 300 was 13.35, the S&P 500 was 27.03, etc. [4] -环比 Changes: The CSI 300 decreased by 0.17, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.08, etc. [4] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - Year Interest Rate: The S&P 500 was - 0.62, the German DAX was 2.12 [4] -环比 Changes: The S&P 500 increased by 0.10, the German DAX decreased by 0.07 [4] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A - shares had a net outflow of 662.18, the main board had a net outflow of 680.95, etc. [4] - 5 - Day Average Values: A - shares had a net outflow of 521.14, the main board had a net outflow of 505.71, etc. [4] Trading Volume - Latest Values: The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a trading volume of 18031.71, the CSI 300 had a trading volume of 4287.64, etc. [4] -环比 Changes: The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 608.64, the CSI 300 increased by 219.71, etc. [4] Main Contract Premiums and Discounts - Basis: IF was - 10.62, IH was 5.41, IC was - 93.13 [4] - Premium/Discount Ratios: IF was - 0.26%, IH was 0.19%, IC was - 1.47% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 was 108.130, TF00 was 105.545, T01 was 108.115, TF01 was 105.610 [5] Price Changes (%) - T00 increased by 0.20%, TF00 increased by 0.14%, T01 increased by 0.20%, TF01 increased by 0.16% [5] Money Market - The 3 - month SHIBOR was 1.5600%, with a daily change of 0.00 BP [5]

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced varying degrees of decline, with A-shares fluctuating between gains and losses, indicating a cautious atmosphere [1] - The recent decline is not due to panic but rather a rational warning from a savvy segment of investors who sense the risk of an overheated market, although the majority still believe the Chinese market is not overheated [1] - The foreign exchange market provided signals, with the US dollar index surging by 1%, equivalent to a 2%-3% increase in the stock market, indicating that risks are just beginning to emerge [1] Group 2 - The rise of the US dollar was largely driven by the sharp decline of the euro, which fell due to market distrust regarding the US-EU trade agreement, suggesting potential changes in the agreement should be monitored [1] - The initial relief regarding a 15% tax on Europe has turned pessimistic, as French and German leaders expressed concerns that this outcome would hinder economic growth, negatively impacting European stock markets and bond yields [1] - Investors are also focused on the US-China economic talks, which lasted over five hours in Stockholm, with significant market volatility expected around the announcement of the outcomes [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on July 28, 2025, including data on major economies' 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: - **10 - year Government Bonds**: In major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc., yields showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield was 4.412 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.033, a one - week change of 0.182, and a one - month change of 0.209 [3]. - **2 - year Government Bonds**: Different economies also had different yield trends. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield was 3.903 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.022, a one - week change of 0.038, and a one - month change of - 0.061 [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: - **Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The dollar against currencies like the South African rand, Russian ruble, etc., had different percentage changes. For example, the dollar - South African rand exchange rate was 5.589 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.44% and a one - week change of 0.38% [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore and off - shore renminbi exchange rates and the middle - price also had corresponding changes. For example, the on - shore renminbi exchange rate was 7.179 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.13% and a one - week change of 0.13% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq had different percentage changes. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 6389.770 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.02%, a one - week change of 1.33%, and a one - month change of 2.98% [3]. - **Other Stock Indices**: Including the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, etc., also showed different trends. For example, the Hang Seng Index was 25562.130 on July 28, 2025, with a latest change of 0.68%, a one - week change of 2.27%, and a one - month change of 6.19% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices in emerging economies and developed economies, such as emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, and the US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, showed different performances [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3597.94 with a percentage change of 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.52 with a环比 change of 0.01 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: Although the specific values were not filled in, the relevant indicators for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were mentioned [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, and other segments were provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 472.56 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were shown. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 17423.07 with a环比 change of - 450.30 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 13.82 with a percentage change of - 0.33% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.395, 105.720, 108.400, and 105.785 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% each [6]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4907%, 1.6264%, and 1.5600% respectively, with daily changes of - 20.00 BP, - 6.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [6].

Group 1 - The euro declined by 1.30% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1588 after a period of high volatility following a tariff agreement between the EU and the US [1] - The euro also fell against the British pound by 0.76%, against the Swiss franc by 0.24%, and against the Danish krone by 0.01%, while it rose against the Polish zloty by 0.36% [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.62% against the US dollar, while the US dollar appreciated by 1.07% against the Swiss franc [1] Group 2 - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.70% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.86% [2] - The Swedish krona declined by 0.96% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 0.38% [2] - The Danish krone fell by 1.29% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty dropped by 1.65% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent trade agreement between the US and EU, which aims to avoid a large-scale trade war by imposing a 15% tariff on most European goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% [1] - The agreement is set to take effect on August 1 and is seen as a crucial step in preventing a global trade war, with the EU planning to invest approximately $600 billion in the US and increase purchases of energy and military equipment [1] - Market strategist Michael Brown indicates that the trade agreement is likely to enhance market risk appetite and strengthen the euro against the dollar, suggesting significant upward potential for the euro's exchange rate [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is currently operating within an upward channel, with MACD above the zero line and RSI above 50, indicating a continuation of the upward trend [2] - Today's focus for the euro's movement is on the resistance level around 1.1850, while support is noted near 1.1650 [2]