Report Overview - The report is titled "40 Key Questions in the Oil, Gas, and Shipping Markets under the Strait Blockade" and is published by the Energy and Chemicals Group of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute on April 1, 2025 [1] 1. Crude Oil: Supply Gap and Price Projection under Strait Blockade 1.1 Supply Loss - The total pre - blockade daily export of various oil products through the Strait of Hormuz was about 20 million barrels, with crude oil accounting for about 15 million barrels. The direct loss of crude oil exports due to the blockade was 14.5 million barrels per day [7] - Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE fully utilized their pipeline and port diversion capabilities, there was still a potential crude oil export gap of about 10.5 million barrels per day [8] 1.2 Supply Increase from Strategic Reserves and Sanction Relief - The IEA's 32 member countries released 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil products. The actual supply increase from the release of reserves was estimated to be up to 1.2 million barrels per day [11] - The combined floating storage of Russian and Iranian crude oil could provide a supply increase of about 1.2 million barrels per day within a month [11] 1.3 Production Shutdown - By the fourth week of the US - Iran conflict, the estimated reduction in Middle - Eastern crude oil production was about 10 million barrels per day, resulting in an 8 - million - barrel - per - day decline in March [12] 1.4 Refining Capacity Decline - As of the end of March, the global refining capacity decline was about 4.6 million barrels per day. If the blockade continued throughout April, the loss could exceed 7 million barrels per day [14] 1.5 Price Projection - Based on the Brent average price of $71 per barrel in February 2026, the report estimated the price increase under different blockade durations. For example, if the blockade lasted for 4 weeks, the Brent price could reach $78 (conservative), $82 (neutral), and $85 (optimistic) [17] 1.6 Arbitrage and Pricing - The core of the price difference between SC and international crude oil is freight, followed by product quality and regional price premiums. After the blockade, Brent and SC have decoupled from traditional Middle - Eastern Dubai/Oman medium - sour crude [18] - In the short - term, the monthly spread of crude oil was at a high level. The report recommended considering long positions in distant - month contracts such as 06, 07, and 08 [21] 1.7 Short - Selling Strategy - The report suggested short - selling Brent dec26 or the Brent main contract and holding the position for 6 - 12 months until the end of the war [22] 2. Gasoline and Diesel: Supply Evolution in the East and West under Geopolitical Impact 2.1 Gasoline Supply in Asia - Pacific before the Conflict - Asia - Pacific was the main area for global refining capacity growth. The increase in refining capacity and the change in raw material structure led to a relatively loose gasoline supply in the region [27] 2.2 Impact on Gasoline Production and Blending in Asia - Pacific after the Conflict - The interruption of Middle - Eastern crude oil exports led to a decline in refinery operations in China and potentially South Korea, resulting in a shortage of basic gasoline components [31] - The rise in crude oil and naphtha prices and export difficulties increased the cost of blending components, pushing up the price of gasoline [31] 2.3 Future Evolution of European Refineries and Gasoline Production - European refineries mainly processed light crude oil from the US and West Africa. The decline in Middle - Eastern crude oil exports might further shift them towards light crude [36] - European gasoline production was expected to bottom out and rebound after April, depending on the refinery processing volume [36] 2.4 Impact of US Production on Western Hemisphere Gasoline Supply and Demand - US refineries were less likely to reduce diesel production due to the high global diesel price and supply shortages in other regions. This might lead to a loss of about 160,000 barrels per day of gasoline production [40] 2.5 Global Diesel Price and Spread Trends - The decline in Middle - Eastern diesel exports led to a shortage of global diesel resources, with a sharp increase in spot and paper prices and a rapid decline in inventory [45] 2.6 Europe as the Focus of the Global Diesel Market - Europe had a weak diesel supply chain, with insufficient domestic production capacity and high external supply dependence, mainly on the Middle East, the US, and India [50] 2.7 US as a Supplier in the Western Hemisphere Diesel Market - The US had a potential diesel production increase of about 480,000 barrels per day, but it might not be able to fill the Middle - Eastern gap during the US gasoline consumption peak [53] 2.8 Asia - Pacific Refining Powers Filling the Middle - Eastern Diesel Gap - China, South Korea, and India were the main diesel suppliers in the Asia - Pacific market. However, China might reduce exports, South Korea's diesel yield might be compressed, and India's exports might have an upper limit [60] 3. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Micro - Market Structure under Geopolitical Issues 3.1 Iran's Position and Trade Flow in the Global Fuel Oil Market - Iran was the second - largest fuel oil exporter in the Middle East, with an annual export volume of about 15 - 18 million tons, mainly high - sulfur fuel oil [66] 3.2 Impact on Production and Export of Other Countries in the Strait - The production and export of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE were affected. Saudi Arabia's exports were threatened, Iraq's export capacity was restricted, and the UAE's transshipment role in Fujairah was limited [72] 3.3 Russia and Latin America Filling the Middle - Eastern Supply Gap - Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil exports had an upward trend, but its production was limited by drone attacks and sanctions. Latin America's exports were mostly directed to the US, and high freight rates restricted its ability to supply the Asia - Pacific [77] 3.4 Asia - Pacific Low - Sulfur Market Gap - The Asia - Pacific low - sulfur market faced a supply shortage, with losses from Kuwait, Indonesia, and Brazil. However, European low - sulfur prices might provide some supply through arbitrage [78][81] 3.5 Factors Determining Domestic Low - Sulfur Production - Domestic low - sulfur production depended on the processing volume of major refineries and the yield of refined oil products. As the peak consumption season for gasoline and diesel approached, the growth of low - sulfur production might be limited [85] 3.6 Potential Expansion of Fuel Oil Demand in Shipping and Power Generation - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East might lead to increased fuel consumption in shipping due to longer voyages and higher speeds. In the power generation sector, high - sulfur fuel oil demand in the Middle East was expected to increase seasonally [89][93] 4. LNG: Global LNG Balance under Supply Risk 4.1 Duration of Middle - Eastern LNG Supply Interruption - Qatar's supply interruption was expected to last at least until May, and Train 4&6's production reduction would continue until 2027. The supply interruption of Qatar and the UAE for one month would result in a reduction of about 6.9 million tons of LNG supply [103] 4.2 Supply - Side Balance Sheet Changes - In 2026, the global LNG production capacity growth rate was expected to decrease due to Qatar's facility losses. In the long - term, the global production capacity growth trend remained [106] 4.3 Regions with Significant Import Source Impact - Qatar's exports were mainly directed to Asia, especially China, India, South Korea, and Pakistan. South Asian countries were more dependent on Middle - Eastern imports [109] 4.4 Acceptance of High Prices by Asia - Pacific Demand Countries - Demand countries showed differentiation. South Asia and Southeast Asia had high dependence on Qatar's imports and weak infrastructure, while Northeast Asia had low short - term acceptance of high - price spot LNG [113] 4.5 Seasonal Gap after Demand Feedback - The estimated actual demand gap caused by one - month and two - month Middle - Eastern supply interruptions was 5.3 million tons and 10.6 million tons respectively. The demand gap might turn the annual balance sheet from loose to tight in 3 - 6 months [116] 4.6 Impact of European Stockpiling Demand on Annual Supply - Demand Balance - In the short - term, Europe's short - term stockpiling urgency decreased. In winter, the stockpiling demand would increase, and there was a seasonal gap during the peak summer electricity demand [119][121] 5. LPG: LPG Gap Calculation under Supply Risk 5.1 Middle - Eastern LPG Supply Reduction - The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in Middle - Eastern LPG exports. The supply gaps of C3 and C4 were about 2 million and 1.8 million tons per month respectively [126] 5.2 US as an Alternative Supplier - The US had limited ability to increase LPG exports in the short - term due to full - capacity operation at ports, equipment breakdowns, and a mismatch in product ratios [132] 5.3 LPG Supply - Demand Gap - The chemical demand for LPG was elastic, while the combustion demand was rigid. Even considering the US's increased exports and Iran's normal exports, there was still a combustion - end gap of 400,000 - 600,000 tons per month [135] 6. Shipping: Main Shipping Market Dynamics under Middle - Eastern Geopolitical Conflicts 6.1 Strait of Hormuz Passage Tracking Indicators - In late March, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was significantly lower than normal, and most of the passages were outbound [138][140] 6.2 Freight Rate Trends - The freight rates of various types of ships, including crude tankers, product tankers, LPG carriers, LNG carriers, and container ships, showed different trends. Generally, the freight rates were affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [146][151][158] 6.3 Ship Deployment Ratios - The east - west deployment ratio of oil tankers in the Suez Canal and the Atlantic - Pacific deployment ratio of bulk carriers changed due to the Middle - Eastern situation [167][169] 6.4 Impact on the Shipping Insurance Market - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led to a significant increase in war - risk insurance rates. Insurance has become a key constraint on shipping [173][174] 6.5 Container Liner Companies' Operational Adjustments - Maersk, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping adjusted their routes and introduced multimodal transport solutions to deal with the Middle - Eastern logistics challenges [176][177][178] 6.6 Mandeb Strait Passage Status - In 2025, the passage volume of different ship types through the Mandeb Strait declined compared to 2024. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, the number of crude tankers passing through the Mandeb Strait increased [179]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President has signaled a cease - fire, and there are signs that the Iranian leadership may be open to ending the war through negotiation. Crude oil prices have fallen, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased significantly. Domestically, China's PMI improved significantly in March, the economy exceeded expectations, exports were much better than expected, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The short - term domestic economic situation is better than expected, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term; government bonds will be in a short - term shock; in the commodity sector, black metals may weaken in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, energy and chemical products may be strong in the short term, and precious metals may rebound in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's cease - fire signal and Iran's potential for negotiation led to a drop in crude oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, and a significant increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy and inflation in March were better than expected. The government work report set 2026 development targets and policies. The short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. [2][3] - Asset operation suggestions: short - term cautious observation for stock indices and government bonds; short - term cautious observation for black metals; short - term cautious observation for non - ferrous metals; short - term cautious long for energy and chemical products; short - term cautious long for precious metals. [2] Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and energy metals, the domestic stock market declined. However, the economic fundamentals in March were better than expected, and the short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. With the hope of an end to the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, and spot gold and silver rebounded. Precious metals are in a state of significant short - term shock and short - term rebound. Short - term cautious long is recommended. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined on Tuesday, and the market volume was low. The steel market follows energy prices, and the decline in coking coal prices has led to further weakness. The real - world demand has improved slightly, but the apparent consumption of the five major steel products still shows a downward trend year - on - year. The steel production of the five major varieties decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron production increased slightly. There is a risk of a phased correction in April. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Tuesday. The previous price increase was supported by energy prices and price negotiation news. The demand for iron ore remains resilient as molten iron production has increased, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is around 43%. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 6.71 million tons this week, while the arrival volume increased by 2.113 million tons. The problem of supply - demand mismatch is gradually being resolved. The room for further price increases is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the weakening of energy prices. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Tuesday, while the decline in the futures prices widened. The prices follow energy prices. The cost increase has led to some factory production cuts. The inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese is at a low level, and the overall production cost is supported. The futures prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - shock mindset. [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventories. After the replenishment, the inventory decline rate is expected to slow down. The copper market supply is loose, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts the inventory decline. The current inventory is still at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. [7] - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly. The domestic aluminum supply remains high. [7] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically the same as last week, at 214,000 tons, and is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in the southern region have rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting production remains at a relatively high level, and overseas smelting production will recover in 2026. The demand is not optimistic. [8][9] - **Lead**: The decline in domestic lead ingot inventory has stopped, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and the demand is in the off - season. The import volume of refined and crude lead has increased significantly. [9] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy is changeable. The core contradiction lies in the mining end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and there are risks in MHP supply. Nickel prices have support at the bottom, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad. [10] - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar has increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand in the semiconductor industry is good, but other industries are not performing well, and the overall demand is not good. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, and the LME inventory has decreased. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell significantly on Tuesday. The decline is mainly due to the rumored news of the opening of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, with both supply and demand booming, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Tuesday. The supply and demand are weak, the production capacity is excessive, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is recommended to operate within an interval, paying attention to the cost support at the bottom. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell on Tuesday. The price has returned to the cost - based pricing, and the inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iran and the US have signaled a willingness to resolve the conflict, leading to a narrowing of the risk premium and a decline in oil prices. However, the market is still worried about the impact on the global energy system. The average gasoline price in the US has exceeded $4 per gallon, posing a political risk to the Trump administration. Oil prices will remain at a high - central and high - volatility level in the short term. [14] - **Asphalt**: As oil prices decline, asphalt is likely to follow. There are short - term supply problems, and seasonal demand will increase, driving inventory depletion. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is limited, and the new contract price is expected to rise significantly after April, supporting the market bottom. The absolute price will continue to fluctuate significantly with crude oil. [14] - **PX**: The shortage of naphtha continues, and overseas PX prices remain strong. With the increase in domestic PX plant maintenance plans, the PX price is expected to remain strong, but the upside may be limited by the increase in PTA plant maintenance plans. [15] - **PTA**: In the peak season, terminal orders and开工 are lower than in previous years, and the negative feedback continues. The PTA cost is still supported, but the downstream filament production reduction has increased. The PTA basis has rebounded slightly, and the negative feedback restricts the price increase. PTA is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Driven by export expectations, ethylene glycol prices rose, but after the decline in oil prices, inventory pressure was reflected in the futures price. Overseas supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the price will remain high - volatile. Attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback. [15] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the high - volatility of crude oil prices and negative feedback in the polyester sector, short - fiber prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, following PTA and other varieties. [16][17] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is strong, and the port basis is strengthening. Affected by the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the energy and chemical futures market has declined. However, due to the obstruction of Iranian exports and unstable Middle East plants, the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The domestic demand is warming up in the peak season, and the spot is in short supply. The market is strong, but the volatility has increased significantly. [17] - **PP**: The market price has declined. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the downstream demand is increasing, providing support for the price. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the situation of the cease - fire talks. [18] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory is depleting rapidly. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but there is inventory pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are the key variables for external supply. [18] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Affected by external positive factors, the futures market has strengthened, boosting the spot market sentiment. However, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still in place, and the industrial demand is supporting the market. The export is tightening, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT July soybean contract closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is 2.104803 billion bushels, higher than the analyst's estimate. [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans for domestic oil mills in April are balanced, and the inventory is loose. The basis is under seasonal pressure. The far - month oil mill crushing profit supports more purchases of soybeans, and the future supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. For rapeseed meal, as the import of rapeseed increases in the far - month, the supply concern fades, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal widens. It will follow the soybean meal's shock adjustment. [20] - **Oils**: The overnight BMD palm oil closed higher. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment. The decline in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran cease - fire intention has put pressure on the vegetable oil premium. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil spot basis is stable, and the demand is weak. Palm oil exports from Malaysia are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Palm oil will maintain a high - level shock. [21] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, but the market atmosphere is not high. Traders are more willing to sell, and the inventory of downstream deep - processing enterprises is accumulating. The feed enterprises are using more imported and policy - auctioned grains, and the acceptance of high - price corn is decreasing. The unconfirmed news of brown rice auction in early April may limit the corn price. [21] - **Pigs**: The average weight of pigs is increasing, and small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, while large - scale farms are increasing the supply with a slight weight reduction. The short - term breeding profit is in a loss, and the policy is guiding weight reduction and production reduction. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - month contract, while the long - term contract has stronger support. [22]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core Views - On March 31, due to the loose funds across the quarter, treasury bond futures closed slightly higher across the board. The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined comprehensively, with short - term yields rising by about 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250022 rising by 0.9bp to 1.812% by 16:30. The funds were loose across the quarter, with a net reverse repurchase injection of 15 billion yuan in the open market. The overnight DR in the inter - bank market fell 3.84bp to around 1.27%, and the 7 - day fund rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.43%. The medium - and long - term funds loosened, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell to around 1.48%. - Economic data from January to February were good, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. Coupled with the unclear situation in the Middle East, oil prices might remain at a high level for a long time, bringing imported inflation pressure and impacting the bond market. However, considering that the current inflation increase is mainly due to supply contraction rather than a significant increase in demand, the central bank's monetary policy is unlikely to change significantly. There may be opportunities to bet on market oversold conditions. In the short term, with economic data released and important policy information landed, market trading may focus on the capital side, policy deployment, and Sino - US relations. Attention should be paid to the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and a resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, and the short - term loose funds will provide strong support. [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher across the board due to loose funds across the quarter; the yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined comprehensively, with short - term yields rising by about 1bp, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield changing slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250022 yield rose 0.9bp to 1.812% by 16:30. The funds were loose across the quarter, with a net reverse repurchase injection of 15 billion yuan. The overnight DR in the inter - bank market fell 3.84bp to around 1.27%, the 7 - day fund rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.43%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell to around 1.48%. [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Economic data from January - February were good, dampening market easing expectations. With the unclear Middle East situation, high oil prices may bring imported inflation pressure and impact the bond market. But considering inflation is supply - driven, the central bank's policy may not change significantly. There may be opportunities in the oversold market. In the short term, the focus may shift to the capital side, policy, and Sino - US relations. Attention should be paid to RRR cuts and risk - aversion sentiment, and short - term loose funds will support. [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - The US State Department clarified the false report about Trump delaying his visit to China due to China's non - assistance in the Strait of Hormuz escort. The two sides are in communication about the visit. - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting after the US - Israeli air strikes on Iran. The strikes have caused oil price surges, affecting various assets. The Fed will discuss the impact of energy shocks on inflation and economic growth. Market expectations for a rate cut this year have dropped to once, and the war may strengthen the consensus that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. - China's economic data from January - February showed that fixed - asset investment increased 1.8% YoY (ex - real estate investment increased 5.2%), industrial added value increased 6.3% YoY, service production index increased 5.2% YoY, retail sales increased 2.8% YoY, real - estate development investment decreased 11.1%, new home sales area decreased 13.5%, new home sales volume decreased 20.2%, and the urban unemployment rate was 5.3%. The decline in new home prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow. [13][14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents the trading data of treasury bond futures on March 31, including contract information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change of various contracts. It also mentions data on the spread of main contract expirations, the spread between different - term main contracts (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trend of main contracts. [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, the change of the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the change of the inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase rate. [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the fixed - rate curve (mean) of Shibor3M interest - rate swaps and FR007 interest - rate swaps. [36]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Soda Ash: The current soda ash market remains weak and pressured. The supply pressure has eased slightly but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Demand is persistently weak, and the inventory is still at a historical high above 1.8 million tons. In the short - term, the supply and inventory will continue to rise, and the futures price will fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on prices. It is recommended to short on rallies. The market deadlock can only be broken by effective capacity reduction on the supply side [8]. - Glass: The glass futures price is in a difficult - to - move up or down oscillation pattern. The upper pressure comes from high inventory and production restart expectations, and the lower support is from production line cold - repair expectations and raw material price fluctuations. The supply structure cannot be fundamentally improved, and the inventory is accumulating. In the short - term, coal and gas price fluctuations will have a large impact on the glass price. In the long - term, the upward potential depends on the cost support of raw materials and changes in commercial housing sales data. Currently, short - term long positions can be considered, but the profit space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [9][10]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Soda Ash and Glass Futures Trading Data on March 31 | Contract | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Ratio (%) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SA605 | 1202 | 1206 | 1177 | 1177 | - 38 | - 3.12 | 79.08 | - 35847 | | SA609 | 1290 | 1292 | 1252 | 1252 | - 46 | - 3.54 | 41.04 | 6003 | | FG605 | 1039 | 1040 | 1017 | 1019 | - 23 | - 2.20 | 106.89 | 32130 | | FG609 | 1179 | 1180 | 1150 | 1151 | - 33 | - 2.78 | 38.75 | - 1229 | [7] Data Charts - Soda Ash: Active contract price trend, weekly output, enterprise inventory, and central China heavy soda market price [12][17][20] - Glass: Active contract price trend and flat glass output [12][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has changed due to the willingness of the US and Iran to end the war. Precious metals have risen significantly, and the risk - preference of the market has rebounded. However, the negotiation details may still fluctuate [1][12]. - The China's official manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic sentiment has improved. The bond market is expected to be volatile [22][23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the price of crude oil has declined due to the expected end of the war; the price of some agricultural products and metals is affected by supply and demand and other factors [5][36][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Schmid warns that inflation is a real risk and may stagnate near 3%. The US and Iran's willingness to end the war has reversed the market trading logic. Gold prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and then gradually rise with fluctuations [10][12] - Investment advice: It is expected that precious metals will oscillate and rise, but the trend will be affected by the development of the US - Iran situation [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and Pakistan put forward five initiatives to restore peace and stability in the Gulf and the Middle East. The new regulations on the funds of domestic enterprises listed overseas have been implemented, which improves the convenience of cross - border financing. The global risk assets have rebounded, and the A - share market may gradually repair [13][14][16] - Investment advice: Hold a low - position long position in the stock index and wait and see [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of job vacancies in the US in February decreased, and the labor market activity is cooling. Although the US and Iran have expressed their willingness to end the war, the military operations have expanded, and the negotiation process may be tortuous. The volatility of the US stock market remains high [18][20] - Investment advice: Wait for a clearer right - hand side signal due to high short - term volatility [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in March exceeded expectations, indicating an improvement in the domestic economic sentiment. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious when chasing up [22][23][25] - Investment advice: The bond market is in a volatile period, and be cautious when chasing up [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable on March 31. The price of coal in the northern port has gradually weakened. Although it is in the off - season, the long - term upward risk of coal prices still exists due to overseas energy shortages [26] - Investment advice: Coal prices may slow down in the short term but have an upward risk in the long term [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - An Indian mining company plans to invest in a Brazilian iron ore project. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The downstream acceptance of ore prices is not high, but the increase in marginal costs limits the downward space [28] - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain weak [29] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot prices of coking coal in ports have mostly been lowered. The decline of the futures price is mainly due to the fall in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [30] - Investment advice: The futures price is affected by energy issues in the short term. Pay attention to demand changes [31] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers in March was above the boom - bust line. The steel price has declined slightly due to the easing of the Middle East situation, and it is expected to remain in a volatile pattern [32] - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to the Middle East situation and energy prices [33] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in March were estimated at 15.86 million tons. The US soybean planting intention was lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory was higher than expected. The domestic soybean crushing volume in March increased significantly [34][35][36] - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans [36] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory in the four northern ports increased, and the downstream demand has support. Policy auctions and purchases provide support for the corn price. The corn price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern [37][38][39] - Investment advice: Consider selling call options as the corn price is in a high - level volatile pattern [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Muyuan's net profit in 2025 decreased by 16.45%. The current hog market is in a weak situation, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the long - term strategy is to consider going long on far - month contracts [40][41][42] - Investment advice: Short on rebounds for the near - month contracts and consider going long on far - month contracts with caution [42] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Some lithium salt projects are in progress. The lithium carbonate price has fallen. The supply disturbance has not been realized, and the demand is growing. The long - term view is supported by the new energy substitution narrative. It is recommended to go long on dips [43][44][45] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips, but beware of liquidity risks [45] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have fluctuated. The market is mainly following the trend of precious metals. Due to geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues, it is recommended to wait and see [46][47] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading; pay attention to arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and take profits on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy [47] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is in a low - level volatile state. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the price. It is recommended to wait and see and protect long positions near the regeneration cost line [48][49][50] - Investment advice: Consider buying on dips on the right - hand side; wait and see on arbitrage [50] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating. Geopolitical risks and market liquidity issues exist. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on long positions [53] - Investment advice: Wait and see on the single - side trading and arbitrage [53] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Some copper - related companies have investment and profit - increasing plans. The copper price is affected by the Middle East situation and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [54][55][56] - Investment advice: Wait and see on short - term single - side trading; pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [57] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is gradually becoming more relaxed, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the supply from major producing areas and demand growth [58][59] - Investment advice: The tin price will be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and pay attention to supply and demand factors [59] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production in March decreased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to the expected end of the war. Short - term attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [60][62] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the Middle East situation, and the oil price will remain highly volatile [63] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco's April CP for LPG has increased. The price of LPG has回调 due to the easing of geopolitical risks. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation [64] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation [65] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The operating rate of asphalt refineries in April is expected to decline. The asphalt price is rising slowly, and the supply is short. The downstream demand is affected by high prices and the rainy season [65] - Investment advice: The asphalt price is difficult to decline in the short term [66] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The styrene price has fallen. The short - term de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and the general direction is to go long on dips [67][68][69] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the potential ground - war expectation and go long on dips in the long - run [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, has a significant impact on the global economy and financial markets. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices, which in turn affects inflation, interest rates, and bond yields. The global economy is facing downward pressure due to factors such as high oil prices and the US's wrong policies [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Logic - Trump is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Iran's parliament has passed a management plan for the Strait of Hormuz, giving the Iranian armed forces a control role [1][2]. - There is a 40% probability that the conflict will continue until June, and if so, oil prices may exceed $200 per barrel, and US gasoline may reach $7 per gallon [2]. - The IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the actual global release speed is no more than 3 million barrels per day, while the supply gap caused by the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz is 11 - 16 million barrels per day [2][3]. - Analysts from Nomura and Goldman Sachs have warned that traders face extremely high risks in the current environment [2]. Impact on Financial Markets - The Fed Chairman's statement that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged in the context of an energy shock has alleviated market concerns about the Fed tightening monetary policy to curb inflation [1]. - High - end believes that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates, referring to the situation in 1990 when the Fed cut rates during an oil supply shock [1]. - The decoupling of bonds and oil has become a key signal, with the market logic shifting from inflation panic to recession concerns and fiscal stimulus expectations [1]. - Global central banks are selling US Treasuries at the fastest pace in more than a decade, and the yen is under pressure [1]. - The Nasdaq futures have broken through support levels, and the AI - induced industry substitution and the Middle East situation may trigger a new round of large - scale selling, which may have a significant negative impact on US consumption [3].

Core Viewpoint - Hongye Futures reported a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with a year-on-year drop of 86.61%, raising concerns given the overall positive trend in the industry [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 287 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.53% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.99 million yuan, down 86.61% compared to the previous year [2] - Brokerage business net income from fees was 167 million yuan, a decline of 3.8% [2] - Interest income from client deposits fell by 44.37% to 47.49 million yuan [2] - Asset management scale decreased by 93.43% to 1.059 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [2] - The company’s risk management business profit was 8.89 million yuan, also showing a significant decline [2] - In contrast, overseas financial services showed growth, with revenue increasing by 38.82% [2] Industry Context - The domestic futures market saw a steady development in 2025, with total market funds reaching approximately 2.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [3] - The overall performance of the futures industry was positive, with total operating revenue for all futures companies reaching 42.015 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [3] - Despite the downturn in Hongye Futures, the industry experienced a "Matthew effect," where a few companies significantly boosted overall profitability [3] Company Positioning - Since its A-share listing in 2022, Hongye Futures has struggled to maintain a competitive edge, with key performance indicators lagging behind peers [4] - The company’s net profit dropped dramatically post-listing, with a notable decline of 84.56% in 2022 [4] - In 2024, the company saw a rebound in revenue and profit, but the 2025 results indicate a return to poor performance [5] - Hongye Futures' average return on equity was only 0.21%, significantly lower than competitors like Nanhua Futures and Ruida Futures [5] Shareholder Returns - The company has faced challenges in providing shareholder returns, with cumulative dividends significantly lower than peers since its IPO [6] - Major shareholders have reduced their stakes, indicating potential concerns about the company's future performance [6] Internal Control Issues - Hongye Futures has faced multiple regulatory penalties since its A-share listing, indicating weaknesses in internal controls [7] - The company has been penalized at least six times for various compliance failures, particularly in 2024 [7][8] - The management changes in late 2023 and early 2024 coincided with an increase in regulatory scrutiny and penalties [8]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 Holly Futures 中國南京 2026年3月31日 於 本 公 告 日 期，董 事 會 成 員 包 括 執 行 董 事 儲 開 榮 先 生 及 趙 偉 雄 先 生；非 執 行 董 事 薛 炳 海 先 生 及 蔣 海 英 女 士；獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 盧 華 威 先 生、張 洪 發 先 生 及 王 宇 偉 先 生；以 及 職 工 董 事 陳 克 先 生。 苏豪弘业期货股份有限公司 2025 年年度报告摘要 （ 於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ， 中文公司名稱蘇豪弘業期貨股 份有限公司 ， 在香港 以 Holly Futures 的名義開展業務 ） ( 「 本 公 司 」 ) （股 份 代 號：3678） 海外監管公告 蘇豪弘業期貨股份有限公司 2025年年度報告摘要 本公告乃本公司根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.1 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 就 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 Holly Futures （ 於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ， 中文公司名稱蘇豪弘業期貨股 份有限公司 ， 在香港 以 Holly Futures 的名義開展業務 ） ( 「 本 公 司 」 ) （股 份 代 號：3678） 海外監管公告 蘇豪弘業期貨股份有限公司 2025年年度報告 本公告乃本公司根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作 出。 茲 載 列 本 公 司 於 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站 刊 發 之《蘇 豪 弘 業 期 貨 股 份 有 限 公 司2025 年 年 度 報 告》，僅 供 參 閱。 承董事會命 董事長兼執行董事 儲開榮先生 中國南京 2026年3月31日 於 本 公 告 日 期，董 事 會 成 員 包 括 執 行 董 事 儲 開 榮 先 生 及 趙 偉 雄 先 生；非 執 行 董 事 薛 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities decreased this week, mainly due to a marginal decline in the energy and chemical sector. The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors rebounded, while the agricultural products sector declined slightly. The black sector is currently weak in the cross - section. Short - term price - volume factors are highly volatile due to macro factors [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, different factors in various sectors have different trends. For example, the inventory factor in some sectors decreased, while the spread factor in others increased. The comprehensive signals of different sectors are also different, including neutral, short, and the shift from short to neutral [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of long positions in commodities decreased this week, with the energy and chemical sector showing a marginal decline. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors had a short - cycle momentum rebound, and the agricultural products sector declined slightly. The black sector is weak in the cross - section [3]. - The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector is more differentiated, and the copper is bearish in the term structure. The time - series momentum of the black sector decreased slightly, and coking coal is bearish in the cross - section. The short - cycle momentum of the chemical sector remains high but declines marginally, and PVC and soda ash are bearish in the cross - section. The short - cycle cross - section differentiation of oil and meal in the agricultural products sector narrows, and the palm oil position increases [3]. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **General Situation**: The inventory factor decreased by 1.79% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. On the fundamental factors, the supply side of methanol is neutral, the demand side of glacial acetic acid is neutral and bearish, the inventory side of methanol releases a short signal, and the spread side is neutral and bullish [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.03%, the spread factor increased by 0.04%, and the comprehensive factor increased by 0.02%. The supply side has a stronger short feedback, the inventory side's short feedback slightly strengthens, and the signal remains neutral. The spot price center moves down, and the spread side is bearish [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.38%, the demand factor decreased by 0.61%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.32%, the spread factor decreased by 0.19%, and the synthetic factor weakened by 0.21%. This week, the comprehensive signal changes from short to neutral. The supply side turns to a long feedback, the inventory side maintains a long signal, and the spread side turns to a long feedback [6]. - **Glass**: The inventory factor increased by 0.18%, the profit factor increased by 0.38%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. The demand side is neutral and bullish, the inventory side continues to be long, the profit side is bearish, and the spread side is neutral and bearish [7].