国泰海通证券发布研报称，2026年以来地缘局势紧张，船东情绪高涨，且有海外船东加大租船控制市 场，近期油运运价维持高位。中东-中国VLCCTCE维持在12万美元以上高位。提示船东情绪仍将可能持 续影响短期运价，该行建议关注运价中枢同比上升趋势，该行预计2026Q1油轮盈利将同比大增数倍。 油运市场相关港股： 中远海能（600026）(01138)：中远海能经过多年的业务重组整合，现已构建起油、气、化及仓储一体 化链式经营新格局。油运作为公司的核心业务，近十年营收占比长期超过8成，其中外贸原油及外贸成 品油运输业务贡献主要盈利弹性，内贸油运及LNG运输构筑盈利基石。截至2025年9月，统一换算载重 吨口径下，油轮、LNG船、化学品船、LPG船运力分别占比83.2%、16.5%、0.3%、0.1%。 而最新型、燃油效率最高的船舶，日租金更是超过了 10 万美元。 据报道，美军在约旦、沙特、巴林、阿联酋等多国部署了战机、预警机和无人机等力量。此外，美国总 统特朗普正考虑对伊朗实施一次"有限规模"的军事打击，以迫使其接受美国提出的核协议要求。值得注 意的是，此前有报道称，美国考虑扣押涉伊朗油轮以施压。 中信建投（60 ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于韩国船东的大规模押注以及日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势将运费推向极端水 平，锁定原油超级油轮长期租约的成本已飙升至历史纪录。 这是 1988 年有数据记录以来的最高水平。 根据全球最大船舶经纪公司旗下的克拉克森研究服务公司的数据，租用一艘超大型原油运输船一年的平 均成本目前已超过 92,000 美元 / 天。 而最新型、燃油效率最高的船舶，日租金更是超过了 10 万美元。 据报道，美军在约旦、沙特、巴林、阿联酋等多国部署了战机、预警机和无人机等力量。此外，美国总 统特朗普正考虑对伊朗实施一次"有限规模"的军事打击，以迫使其接受美国提出的核协议要求。值得注 意的是，此前有报道称，美国考虑扣押涉伊朗油轮以施压。 中信建投研究认为，由于欧美对于影子船队的扩大制裁，特别是自2025年年初以来，美国加大了对影子 船队的制裁，导致市场上有效运力缩减，推升了运价中枢，也提高了运价在旺季的弹性。目前VLCC中 有约16%船队属于受限船，特别是与俄罗斯紧密相关的阿芙拉型船占比已经达到33%。2025年OPEC改 变了以往减产策略，转向增产，并进入到实质增产阶段。担忧原油供应中断，中国开始补库存。由于欧 美对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the shipping industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The VLCC market is experiencing unprecedented high sentiment driven by geopolitical risk premiums, aggressive capacity expansion by Changjin Shipping, and strengthened sanctions [1][9]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continues to elevate risk premiums, with Brent crude oil futures reaching $71.76 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 5.9% [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping has rapidly expanded its fleet, becoming the largest VLCC operator globally, controlling 118 VLCCs, which corresponds to a market share of 16% [2][20][21]. - Strengthened sanctions are increasing the demand for compliant trade, with Venezuela's oil shifting towards compliant markets and India committing to stop purchasing Russian oil, which could add 1% to global tanker trade [3][39]. - The EU's proposal for a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian oil could necessitate the transfer of more compliant vessels into shadow fleets, impacting supply dynamics [4][43]. Summary by Sections Market Review - VLCC rates have surged to their highest levels in nearly a decade, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE reaching $142,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 24.5% [9][12]. - The stock performance of tanker companies has been strong, with notable increases during the holiday period [16]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing US-Iran negotiations have not yielded clear outcomes, maintaining military tensions and affecting oil transport routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping's aggressive market entry reflects confidence in the tanker market's high profitability, with a significant increase in the concentration of top VLCC owners [21]. Sanctions and Compliance - The report highlights a shift in the oil market towards compliance due to increased enforcement of sanctions, with Venezuela's oil exports moving towards compliant channels [3][38]. - The EU's proposed ban on maritime services for Russian oil could lead to a significant increase in the demand for compliant vessels [4][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook for the oil transportation market, with expectations of continued demand growth and limited supply, recommending specific companies within the sector [5][46].

春节假期落幕，A股即将开市。参考海外资产与港股的假期表现，有望成为预判板块轮动的关键风向标。快来看看最新消息！ 今日（2月23日），港股高开高走，全线大涨，为A股马年开门红营造积极氛围。 港股率先开市，全线飘红 哪些板块春节假期走强？ 消息面上，据新华社消息，我国科学家近日在光通信和6G领域取得突破性进展，在国际上率先实现光纤通信和无线通信系统间的跨网络融合，自主研发 的"光纤—无线一体化融合通信系统"的数据传输速率刷新纪录。该成果2月19日凌晨在线发表于《自然》。《自然》审稿人认为，这项工作"对融合光学和 太赫兹通信系统的进步作出重要贡献"。 开源证券近期研报称，展望2026年，AI"虹吸效应"显著，全球AI或继续共振。海外方面，谷歌、Meta等巨头不断上调AI资本开支指引，谷歌Gemini等大 模型Tokens消耗量大幅提升，AI正循环效应逐步凸显。国内方面，以字节跳动、阿里巴巴、腾讯等为代表的国内AI巨头或进入AI算力大规模投入期。看 好"光、液冷、国产算力"三大核心主线，同时建议重点关注AI应用、运营商、卫星互联网&6G等板块。 纵观整个假期，港股先抑后扬、震荡中不乏亮点，多只基金重仓港股大幅走强，既 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened on February 20, 2023, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,413.35 points, down 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 5,211.5 points, down 2.91% [1] - Despite the overall decline, sectors such as AI, humanoid robots, biotechnology, and oil and petrochemicals showed strong performance, creating a structural market trend [1] AI Sector Performance - AI concept stocks in Hong Kong continued to rise, with notable gains from companies like Zhizhu and MINIMAX-WP, both surpassing a market capitalization of 300 billion HKD [1] - Zhizhu's stock price surged by 42.72% to 725 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 3.24 billion HKD, resulting in a total market cap of 323.2 billion HKD [1] - MINIMAX-WP increased by 14.52% to 970 HKD per share, with a trading volume of 3.52 billion HKD, leading to a market cap of 304.2 billion HKD [1] - The demand for Zhizhu's GLM-5 has surged globally, causing service delays, prompting the company to initiate a "computing power partner" recruitment plan [1] - The AI industry is entering a critical development phase, transitioning from a focus on computing infrastructure to a collaborative model of "computing power + hardware + applications" [1] Humanoid Robot Sector - The humanoid robot sector gained traction, influenced by the high visibility of robots during the Lunar New Year gala, with stocks like Yujian, SUTENG, and UBTECH showing significant increases [1] - Yujian's stock rose by 21.4% to 48.44 HKD per share, while UBTECH increased by 4.71% to 144.5 HKD per share [1] - The demand for robots surged, with JD.com's robot search volume increasing over 300% and order volume rising by 150% during the gala [1] - Analysts predict that by 2026, major companies like Tesla and leading domestic firms will begin large-scale production of robots, marking a new chapter in the industry [1] Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector performed well due to rising oil prices amid geopolitical tensions, with the Hong Kong oil and petrochemical index increasing by 2.39% [1] - Stocks such as Jixing New Energy and Zhonggang Petroleum saw gains exceeding 7% [1] - The port transportation index also rose by 1.95%, with companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and Seaspan International experiencing significant stock increases [1] Storage Sector - The storage sector showed active performance, with stocks like Lanke Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation seeing substantial gains [1] - Lanke Technology's stock rose over 8% during trading, while Zhaoyi Innovation increased by over 7% [1] Market Sentiment - Current market volatility remains high, influenced by factors such as U.S. stock performance, consumer data during the Lunar New Year, and advancements in AI [1] - Analysts suggest a balanced investment approach, focusing on sectors directly benefiting from AI developments, such as storage and semiconductor hardware [1]

油运：预防节后上行风险致板块大涨（GS交运氢能，0212） 为什么轮船海能双板：（1）我们认为核心是本身机构持仓不高的情况下，市场为预防节后股价上行风险而入场或 加仓——之前1月中旬至下旬产业大佬对春节期间运价的乐观展望是8-10万，当时大家持怀疑态度，认为一旦节间 保持此运价，节后股价上行风险很大，现在12万的运价导致大家节间预期乐观。 （2）轮船昨天大三角航线定载价格11.15万创新高、传sinokor重 油运：预防节后上行风险致板块大涨（GS交运氢能，0212） 为什么轮船海能双板：（1）我们认为核心是本身机构持仓不高的情况下，市场为预防节后股价上行风险而入场或 加仓——之前1月中旬至下旬产业大佬对春节期间运价的乐观展望是8-10万，当时大家持怀疑态度，认为一旦节间 保持此运价，节后股价上行风险很大，现在12万的运价导致大家节间预期乐观。 （2）轮船昨天大三角航线定载价格11.15万创新高、传sinokor重新启动此前未能取得进展的船舶采购谈判、美派航 母也有催化，但可能不是当前时点最核心的驱动。 市场关注度反而比之前提升：一方面，之前部分以1000e为阶段顶，如今已突破；一方面，部分领导开始关注美 股 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.32% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 157.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market experienced declines, while sectors such as the computing power industry chain saw significant gains [1] Group 2: Electronic Fabric Market - The electronic fabric market is experiencing unexpected price increases during the off-season, indicating a tight supply situation [2] - Prices for Linzhou Guangyuan 7628 fabric rose by 0.55 yuan to 5.40 yuan (+11%), and international composite 7628 fabric increased by 0.55 yuan to 5.20 yuan (+12%) [2] - The price hikes have accelerated and expanded significantly since the beginning of the year, driven by scarcity [2] Group 3: Oil Shipping Industry - The oil shipping industry is facing continued supply constraints due to expanded sanctions on shadow fleets by the U.S. and Europe, leading to a reduction in effective capacity [3] - Approximately 16% of the VLCC fleet is classified as restricted vessels, with 33% of Aframax vessels closely related to Russia [3] - The value of ten-year-old VLCCs has appreciated by 85%, driven by the rising value of the fleet and increasing stock values [3]

油运板块持续活跃，招商轮船、中远海能涨停，分别创历史和本轮新高。 石油ETF鹏华(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 运价强现实，VLCC现货运价持续强势，2月11日TD3C-TCE仍维持12万美元/天，是历史上罕见的春节 前运价表现。YTD均值9.1万，同比+141%。 截至2026年2月12日 15:00，国证石油天然气指数(399439)强势上涨1.88%，成分股招商轮船上涨9.98%， 中远海能上涨9.98%，杰瑞股份上涨7.98%，招商南油，中泰股份等个股跟涨。石油ETF鹏华(159697)上 涨1.98%， 冲击5连涨。最新价报1.39元。 石油ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相 关上市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国海 油、中国石化、杰瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、中远海能、洲际油气、九丰能源、新奥股份，前十大 权重股合计占比66.76%。 方正证券指出，运价强现实、区域局势强预期、运力新格局，增产+制 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the ongoing regional tensions are driving up oil prices, with OPEC's monthly report projecting global demand for OPEC+ oil to average 42.6 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 and 42.2 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [1] - Strong demand for air travel and stable road traffic are expected to support oil demand, while the depreciation of the US dollar provides additional support for oil consumption [1] - The situation in Venezuela and Iran has escalated, leading to a sharp increase in demand for compliant oil transportation, while the supply of compliant fleet capacity is limited, pushing VLCC freight rates higher [1] Group 2 - As of February 12, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 1.29%, with significant increases in component stocks such as China Merchants Energy rising by 9.98%, COSCO Shipping Energy rising by 8.16%, and China Merchants South Oil rising by 5.98% [1] - The oil ETF Penghua (159697) increased by 1.32%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.38 yuan [1] - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies related to the oil and gas industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, Sinopec, and others, collectively accounting for 66.76% of the index [2]

消息面上，据新华社报道，美国政府官员正考虑扣押运输伊朗石油的油轮，以对伊朗施压，但美方也担 心此举可能引发伊朗的报复行动。报道说，今年已有超过20艘运输伊朗石油的船只被美国财政部制裁， 使其成为可能的扣押目标。 中远海能（600026）(01138)再涨超6%，年内累计涨幅已接近80%。截至发稿，涨6.48%，报17.25港 元，成交额8215.46万港元。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，自2025年8月，原油增产与俄油制裁趋严，驱动油轮产能利用率高企，油运 运价中枢显著上升且运价弹性增大。2026年以来地缘局势紧张，船东情绪高涨，且有海外船东加大租船 控制市场，近期油运运价维持高位。上周中东-中国VLCCTCE维持在12万美元以上高位。提示船东情绪 仍将可能持续影响短期运价，该行建议关注运价中枢同比上升趋势，该行预计2026Q1油轮盈利将同比 大增数倍。 ...