Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that major metals like gold, silver, and copper will enter a consolidation phase in the coming weeks after significant price increases [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent decline in gold prices is characterized as a technical reversal rather than a long-term bearish trend, suggesting that the bull market is still intact but requires a pause [3][4]. - Gold's previous price surge exhibited a parabolic pattern, which typically faces momentum exhaustion, with $5000 and the $5100–$5150 range acting as significant short-term resistance levels [5]. - The core logic supporting the gold bull market remains intact, primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar, which is expected to stay below 100, indicating ongoing risks of currency devaluation [6]. Group 2: Copper and Economic Expectations - Copper prices have recently slowed above $14,000, raising questions about whether the price increase is detached from fundamental realities, as current manufacturing PMI is around 50.5, while copper prices imply a PMI of approximately 53 [10]. - The analysis suggests that the optimism surrounding copper is not isolated but reflects a broader bet on economic recovery across cyclical assets, including semiconductor stocks [11]. - In the upcoming consolidation phase, basic metals like copper are expected to receive more support than precious metals due to the dual influence of manufacturing recovery and cyclical rotation, while gold faces profit-taking pressures [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that during the consolidation phase, the focus should be on market rhythm rather than direction, with the metaphor of a paused dance indicating that while the metal frenzy may slow, it is not over [13][14]. - Investors are encouraged to reassess their positions rather than exit the market entirely, as true trends often require consolidation to solidify their foundations [15].

關於三年（2026—2028 年）主要礦產品產量規劃和 2035 年遠景目標綱要的公告 重要内容提示： 一、編制背景 2023—2025 年，面對全球政治經濟和社會環境深刻變革，公司堅持「提質、控本、增效」工 作總方針，超預期完成目標任務，主要經濟指標和銅、金礦產品產量進入全球第 3—5 位。 主要財務數據 單位：人民幣億元 營業收入 利潤總額 歸母淨利潤 經營性淨現金流 資產總額 2022 年 2,703 300 200 287 3,060 2025 年 約 3,450 約 800 約 510-520 約 730 約 5,100 增長率 約 28% 約 167% 約 155%-160% 約 154% 約 67% 註：以上 2025 年數據為初步核算數據，具體以公司後續披露的經審計的 2025 年年度報告為 準。 1 ● 2026 年 2 月 8 日，紫金礦業集團股份有限公司（以下簡稱「本公司」、「公司」、「紫金」） 召開第九屆董事會 2026 年第 4 次臨時會議，會議審議通過《公司三年（2026—2028 年） 主要礦產品產量規劃和 2035 年遠景目標綱要》，明確未來三年主要礦產品產量規劃指 標，並提出 ...

（原标题：非洲金属热潮遇现实冲击） 尽管过去一年金属价格涨势惊人（黄金涨幅超70%、白银近翻三倍、铜价上涨超40%），曾推动各国财 政增收、货币走强并吸引矿业投资，但此次回调表明相关利好或转瞬即逝。经济学家指出，市场动荡应 加速经济多元化进程，制造业、农产品加工、数字服务及区域贸易比单一出口更能支撑稳定增长，南部 非洲多国也已承诺将矿业收入投向基础设施、技能培训及主权财富基金，对非洲资源富国而言，金属热 潮虽未消退但绝非稳赚不赔，关键在于各国政府能否在下次市场下行前构建更具韧性的多元化经济体 系。 据"非洲简报"2月4日报道，全球金属市场下滑给非洲矿业大国带来严峻现实考验，暴露了大宗商品依赖 型经济结构的脆弱性。 过去数月黄金、白银、铜价持续飙升，但上周全球金融市场剧烈回调，南部非洲多国货币、股市及投资 者信心遭重创。这一事件凸显核心隐患：国家收入若严重依赖单一大宗商品出口，即便短期市场波动， 也可能快速动摇货币稳定、财政预算与投资者信心。 赞比亚受冲击同样显著，此前表现亮眼的赞比亚克瓦查大幅走弱。铜占该国出口收入超70%，全球铜价 小幅波动便会对其经济造成明显影响。 南非方面，约翰内斯堡证券交易所（JSE） ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger plan between global mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore, valued at $260 billion, has been officially abandoned after weeks of negotiations failed to reach consensus on key terms, marking the third failed attempt at merging the two companies [1]. Group 1: Merger Details - Rio Tinto has decided not to pursue further discussions with Glencore after determining that an agreement would not create value for shareholders [3]. - Glencore criticized the proposed terms from Rio Tinto, claiming they undervalued Glencore's contribution to the merged entity and did not adequately assess the value of Glencore's copper business and growth plans [3]. - The merger discussions have been ongoing for over a decade, with initial talks dating back to the period before the 2008 global financial crisis [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Glencore's stock price dropped by as much as 10.8% during trading, making it the largest decliner in the FTSE 100 index for that day, while Rio Tinto's stock fell by 1.4% [3]. - According to UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto is prohibited from making any acquisition offers to Glencore for the next six months without approval from the takeover panel [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The potential merger aimed to create a leading advantage in key metals such as iron ore, copper, cobalt, and lithium, which are essential for the production of technology products and support the development of the artificial intelligence industry [5]. - The global copper market is currently experiencing significant attention due to price volatility, with copper prices recently surpassing $14,000 per ton, and analysts predicting a potential supply gap of 10 million tons by 2040 [5].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260206 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好降幅，A 股缩量普跌 海外方面，美国开年就业走弱线索增多：①最新初请失业金人数升至 23.1 万人，预期 21.2 万人，受极端天气扰动短期跳升；②12 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至 654.2 万个，预期 720 万个，创 2020 年 9 月以来新低，且不同规模企业普遍回落，部分反映企业在 AI 提效背景下 对新增岗位需求趋谨慎。欧洲央行 2 月议息会议如期按兵不动，其认为通胀与增长判断基本 稳定、中期通胀仍回归 2%、经济路径与去年 12 月预测一致。行长拉加德认为形势"总体平 衡"，在承认外部不确定性的同时，重申政策立场稳健，短期暂无调整必要。在就业数据走 弱与海外 AI 叙事担忧共振下，市场风险偏好持续收缩：美股普遍下跌超 1%，VIX 抬升；贵 金属再度调整，黄金跌近 4%、白银回撤约 20%；美元指数上探 98 关口，资金转向避险的美 债，10Y 利率回落至 4.17%。原定于本周五晚公布的非农数据推迟至下周三发布，重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic competition between the U.S. and China over copper and silver, highlighting how the U.S. has hoarded copper to manipulate prices, while China has shifted focus to silver as a critical industrial resource, thereby redefining the dynamics of global supply chains and technological development. Group 1: Copper Hoarding by the U.S. - The U.S. has significantly increased its copper reserves, leading to a surge in global copper prices, which is seen as a strategic move to hinder China's green transition efforts [4][5][8] - The U.S. consumes only a small fraction of the world's copper but has stockpiled a substantial amount, indicating a deeper strategy beyond mere market behavior [3][4] - This hoarding has resulted in increased infrastructure costs in the U.S., undermining the Biden administration's green initiatives [8] Group 2: China's Strategic Shift to Silver - In response to U.S. actions, China has elevated silver to a strategic resource, implementing strict export controls that could disrupt global supply chains [13][14] - Silver is now recognized as essential in modern industries, particularly in high-tech applications, making it a critical component for advancements in solar energy and electric vehicles [11][12] - The price of silver in Shanghai has surged, reflecting the impact of China's new export policies on global markets [15] Group 3: Diverging Development Philosophies - The U.S. approach is characterized by a "blocking" strategy, attempting to maintain its dominance through resource control, which is seen as a short-term tactic [19][20] - Conversely, China is adopting an "opening" strategy, using the pain of increased costs to drive domestic innovation and reduce reliance on imported materials [20][22] - This strategic divergence suggests a potential bifurcation in global energy systems, with the U.S. favoring traditional high-cost materials and China pushing for innovative, cost-effective solutions [26]

随着2025年度A股上市公司业绩预告披露正式收官，中国经济新旧动能加速转换的图景也愈发清晰。巨灵财经数据显示，截 至2026年1月30日，A股5352家上市公司中（剔除上市未满一年公司），共有2963家发布了2025年年报、快报或业绩预告， 披露率达55.36%。其中，1069家公司实现预喜（含预增、略增、扭亏、续盈），预喜率为36.08%，较2024年的33.38%实现 小幅回升，盈利态势逐步回暖。 从整体数据来看，2025年A股行业分化态势尤为突出。非银金融、有色金属等行业表现亮眼，盈利增速显著；房地产、光伏 等传统行业则深陷调整期，持续承受业绩压力；而以半导体、通信设备为代表的新质生产力相关板块，更是迎来业绩爆发 期。这种行业增减的鲜明对比，不仅直观反映了各行业景气度的差异，更清晰展现出中国经济正逐步摆脱传统要素依赖模 式，向创新驱动的高质量发展稳步迈进。 非银金融、有色金属领衔，优势赛道表现亮眼 从各行业具体表现来看，2025年预喜率排名前五的行业分别是非银金融、有色金属、美容护理、汽车和公用事业。这些行业 凭借自身核心优势或行业周期红利，跻身业绩预喜的核心阵营，其中非银金融板块的集体预增表现最为突出 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have rebounded strongly, with gold returning to the $5,000 mark, driven by geopolitical tensions and sustained demand from central banks and private investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold surged over 6% at the New York close, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008, while spot silver rose over 10% [1] - In the Asian trading session, spot gold continued to rise by 2%, reaching $5,040 [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia increased by 3.66%, with a two-day gain exceeding 8%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF has seen a cumulative increase of nearly 7% year-to-date, with a net inflow of 10.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Analysts from multiple international investment banks indicate that the fundamental demand for gold remains unchanged, with global central banks purchasing gold and private investors increasing their gold holdings to diversify asset allocation [1] - Silver prices are supported by ongoing industrial production demand, leading to a positive outlook for both gold and silver price rebounds [1] Group 3: Related Products - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) is highlighted as a low-cost investment tool, anchored to physical gold and supporting T+0 trading, with a net inflow of 3.3 billion yuan over the past 20 days [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks a diversified index of metals, with copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, where copper, aluminum, and gold together account for 61.29% of the index, the highest in the market [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) tracks the SSH gold stock index, primarily consisting of gold and copper, and has seen a total net inflow of 5.28 billion yuan over the past 20 days [2]

美东时间2月3日（周二），伴随着市场风格切换至周期和价值股，叠加新一轮"AI抢饭碗"的软件股抛售潮和美伊对峙升温影响，美国股市三大股指全线收 跌，纳斯达克指数盘中跌幅达2.39%，美股科技巨头走弱。 截至收盘，标普500指数跌0.84%，报6917.81点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.43%，报23255.19点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.34%，报49240.99点。纳斯达克指数 近乎跌去年内涨幅。 美股科技七巨头中，仅微软收涨，英伟达、脸书、亚马逊跌幅均超过2%。 英伟达盘中一度跌超5%，截至收盘跌2.84%，市值一夜蒸发1281亿美元（约合人民币8888亿元）。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 成 三 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 411.210 | -2.87% | 186.93亿 | | MSFT.O | | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 180.340 | -2.84% | 262.88亿 | | NVDA.O | | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | 691.700 | -2.08% | 67.18亿 | | MET ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is considering a ban on imports of platinum and copper from Russia, which would tighten market supply further [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The potential ban would primarily affect MMC Norilsk Nickel, Russia's largest mining company, which has not been sanctioned due to its critical position in the global supply chain [1] - The metal markets are already experiencing tight supply conditions, and any loss of Russian metal supply would exacerbate this supply tightness [1]