Market Dynamics - During the Spring Festival, domestic focus is on stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, while overseas attention is on U.S. tariff changes and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2] - Silicon iron futures contract 2605 closed at 5492, down 0.90%, with a net capital inflow of 276 million yuan and an increase in positions by 12,966 contracts[2] - The average daily production of silicon iron decreased by 1.20% to 14,005 tons, with a weekly supply of 98,000 tons, down 1.21%[2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Weekly supply-demand mismatch for silicon iron is expanding, with a monthly supply surplus rate expected to decrease[2] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 28.35%, a decrease of 0.96% week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction[2] - Steel mill silicon iron inventory increased to 17.52 days, up 13.69% from the previous month, indicating a rise in inventory levels[2] Core Logic - The expectation of lower prices for raw materials like anthracite is weakening, with industry losses ranging from 100 to 600 yuan per ton[4] - The demand reduction is expected to have diminishing negative impacts, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery[4] - Policy support is anticipated to stabilize the market, with a focus on post-holiday inventory adjustments[4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, sales increased by 6% quarter-over-quarter to $329 million, while adjusted EBITDA declined by 20% to $15 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4% [12][19][24] - Free cash flow for the year was -$12 million, with a fourth-quarter cash flow consumption of $4 million due to weak EBITDA and an increase in net working capital [23][24] - The company expects revenues in 2026 to improve to a range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion, representing a 20% increase at the midpoint over 2025 [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Silicon metal revenue declined by 3% sequentially to $96 million, with shipments down to 33,000 tons, while adjusted EBITDA dropped from $12 million to $1 million [20] - Silicon-based alloys revenue grew by 12% to $104 million, driven by a 19% increase in volumes to 51,000 tons, with adjusted EBITDA increasing to $60 million [20] - Manganese-based alloys revenue increased by 10% to $93 million, with a 16% volume increase to 81,000 tons, and adjusted EBITDA doubled to $9 million [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Europe, ferrosilicon index prices rose by 22% following the implementation of safeguards, while U.S. prices retreated by 4% in Q4 [16][19] - The European market for manganese is expected to grow by 3% in 2026, driven by solid demand from steel customers and safeguards [18] - The company noted that imports of silicon metal from China doubled in 2025, impacting pricing and demand negatively [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company has converted three furnaces from silicon metal to ferrosilicon to optimize production in response to market dynamics [6][9] - A new competitive 10-year energy agreement in France is expected to enhance operational flexibility and improve earnings potential [9][27] - The company is actively pursuing long-term opportunities in Venezuela, which could become strategically meaningful due to its proximity to the U.S. market [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term outlook due to trade measures in the EU and U.S. that are expected to improve competitive conditions [4][26] - The company anticipates considerable growth in most segments in 2026, driven by strong volume growth in silicon-based and manganese-based alloys [11][12] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by muted demand and elevated levels of predatory imports but emphasized proactive cost control measures [4][8] Other Important Information - The company increased its dividend by 7% to $0.015 per share starting in Q1 2026, reflecting confidence in the business [11][24] - The company has invested a total of $10 million in Coreshell for the development of advanced silicon-rich EV batteries, indicating a focus on long-term technological advancements [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Volume expectations across the three businesses for 2026 and plans for EU silicon assets - Management indicated that safeguards would free up 25% of imports, providing significant opportunities for local producers [34] - The company has converted furnaces to ferrosilicon and is selectively restarting others based on demand [36] Question: Component of minimum prices with EU safeguards for ferroalloys - Management noted that demand is critical for price recovery and that there is sufficient capacity in the EU to meet the safeguards [38][39] Question: EU's appetite to revisit inclusion of silicon metal in safeguards - Management explained that the exclusion was due to technical and political reasons, but they are working on new measures for silicon metal [54][56] Question: High-level breakdown of end market exposure - Management stated that 70-80% of the business is protected, with only 20% exposed to silicon metal in Europe [62][63] Question: Working capital and CapEx expectations - Management expects to continue releasing working capital while maintaining similar levels of CapEx as in 2025 [66][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - building materials market is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, the black - building materials are likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points around the Spring Festival, the recovery strength of plate demand, and marginal changes in "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - For the whole year of 2026, it is still believed that the long - position trend of commodities will continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.13%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 16,903 tons, with a net decrease of 0 tons compared to the previous day. The position of the main contract was 2.0295 million lots, a decrease of 34,123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 297,854 tons, an increase of 21,435 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5337 million lots, a decrease of 18,682 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. Strategy Views - The short - term impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel supply - demand pattern is relatively limited, but it helps to raise the cost center and restrict the downward space of steel prices. Near the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar have a seasonal decline, and the inventory is in the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory - accumulation rhythm is still controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils has declined, the production decline is relatively slow, and the inventory has also increased slightly. The supply - demand structure is generally neutral [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 762.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.07% (- 0.50). The position changed by - 9039 lots to 497,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 854,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.41% [3]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period have declined significantly. Affected by cyclones, the shipments from Australia have dropped sharply, and the shipments of three major Australian mines have decreased significantly. The shipments from Brazil have decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries have remained stable. The near - end arrivals have decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output according to the Steel Union's statistics has increased to 2.3049 million tons. The resumption of blast furnaces is mainly due to the planned resumption after the previous blast furnace overhauls, and at the same time, some blast furnaces in certain regions have started annual overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills has declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years and has decreased month - on - month. Near the Spring Festival, the inventory has accelerated the transfer to the factories, driving up the port clearance volume. The steel mills' procurement rhythm has accelerated, and the imported ore inventory has increased significantly. Overall, overseas shipments are gradually entering the off - season and are declining month - on - month, while pig iron production is in a recovery trend, and there is no obvious marginal contradiction in supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, there is a certain risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and it is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments, the start - up situation of domestic terminal demand after the Spring Festival, and the pig iron production rhythm [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On February 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.41% at 5800 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 1.36% at 5500 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 200 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. Strategy Views - In the medium - to - long - term, it is still believed that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. In the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals has dragged down the market sentiment. From the perspective of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been reflected in the price. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, and there is marginal improvement with the overhaul and production conversion of some factories. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the direction of the black - building materials sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies. Particular attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese - ore segment and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On February 12, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.31% at 1120.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1547.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1356.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 236.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1253.0 yuan/ton, with a premium of 133 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 82 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.18% at 1664.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 61.5 yuan/ton over the futures price. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery - warehouse price was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton over the futures price [11]. Strategy Views - In the short term, although there are many overseas coal - related disturbances with a bullish atmosphere, they have no direct and substantial impact on the domestic coking - coal fundamentals. The sharp rise and fall of precious metals have magnified the overall volatility of the coking - coal futures price and put pressure on the market sentiment. In terms of the supply - demand structure, coking coal and coke are gradually becoming more relaxed. Although there is still some restocking by downstream enterprises, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the restocking is coming to an end, and the restocking willingness of downstream steel mills is significantly low. Therefore, the restocking is not expected to form a strong price - driving force. In addition, although the coking - coal futures price often shows abnormal fluctuations, the short - term upward driving force is not strong due to insufficient fundamental support and an unfavorable market - sentiment environment. Considering the current time node, there is a risk of a phased price correction after the Spring Festival. However, coking coal is expected to have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [14][15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8335 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.42% (- 35). The weighted contract position changed by - 7100 lots to 417,094 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 515 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion [18]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 49015 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.34% (- 165). The weighted contract position changed by - 808 lots to 64,320 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type dense material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day. The average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4235 yuan/ton [21]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: In February, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak. The supply may contract significantly, and the demand is also weak. Although the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to improve to some extent, the upward driving force is insufficient in the weak commodity - market atmosphere. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will oscillate weakly before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment caused by market - sentiment fluctuations [20]. - Polysilicon: In February, the supply of polysilicon continues to decrease, and the silicon - wafer production is expected to remain stable. The high inventory in the silicon - material segment is expected to be slightly reduced. The spot - price game continues, and the market is in a wait - and - see state before the Spring Festival. The polysilicon futures is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the post - festival demand feedback and spot prices [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1065 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 6). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. On February 12, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million cases, an increase of 2.288 million cases (+ 4.31%) from the previous week. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 16,548 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 7627 lots [24]. - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 1.36% (- 16). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1128 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.0096 million tons (+ 0.961%). Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 756,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 831,600 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders decreased their long positions by 16,540 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 8571 lots [26]. Strategy Views - Glass: Downstream processing enterprises are in the final stage of production, mainly making rigid - demand purchases, and their inventory is generally at a low level. The daily melting volume of glass is at a historical low, and there are still plans for cold - repair and transformation of production lines. However, due to the lack of substantial demand recovery or policy support, the market has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the main - contract reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. - Soda ash: The demand for heavy soda ash remains weak, and the daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are at a low level. In the relatively loose supply - demand structure, the market shows a weak and stable oscillation trend. Although the glass demand is expected to remain stable during the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward driving force, and it is expected that the soda - ash price will continue to run weakly. The main - contract reference range is 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The latest prices and their daily and weekly changes of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are presented, including Ningxia 72, Inner Mongolia 72, etc. [1] - Price trends of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions from 2022 - 2026 are shown, such as 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, etc. [2] Supply - Production data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China (monthly and weekly) and the production of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [4][6] - Capacity utilization rates of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are presented [4] Demand - Data on the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, such as the demand for silicomanganese in China (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group [4][6][7] Inventory - Inventory data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of ferrosilicon in different regions (weekly) and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of silicomanganese in China (weekly) [5][7] - Information on the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is presented [5][7] Cost and Profit - Cost and profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are given, including the production cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, etc. [5][7]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 12 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5500 | -76 | -150 | 130697 | 46088 | 162337 | 25052 | | SM主力合约 | 5800 | -24 | -84 | 101203 | 1754 | 378385 | 10954 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5370 | -20 | -70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 0 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints No relevant information provided. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price - The latest prices of 72% FeSi in different regions are: 5270 in Ningxia, 5320 in Inner Mongolia, 5250 in Qinghai, 5250 in Shaanxi, 5750 in Jiangsu, and 5700 in Tianjin [1] - The latest prices of 75% FeSi in Shaanxi and Tianjin are 6000 and 1115 respectively [1] - The latest prices of 6517 FeMn in different regions are: 5650 in Inner Mongolia, 5570 in Ningxia, 5750 in Guangxi, 5700 in Guizhou, 5700 in Yunnan, and 5780 in Jiangsu [1] - The latest price of 6014 FeMn in Guangxi is 5050 [1] 2. Supply - The production data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including the monthly production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China, weekly production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China (with a 95% capacity - share), and weekly production of ferromanganese in China [4][6] - The capacity utilization rates of 136 ferrosilicon production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are shown [4] - The开工率 of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in China (with a 60.45% sample - share) from 2022 - 2026 is provided [4] 3. Demand - The demand - side data include the estimated and actual monthly production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group, the procurement volume and price of 6517 FeMn by HeSteel Group, and the demand for ferromanganese in China (from the Steel Union's perspective) from 2022 - 2026 [4][6][7] - The export - related data such as the export price and quantity of ferrosilicon, and the export quantity of ferromanganese from 2022 - 2026 are also presented [4][7] 4. Inventory - The inventory data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from 2022 - 2026 are provided, including the weekly inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the total daily warehouse - receipt quantity of CZCE ferrosilicon, the daily effective forecast of ferrosilicon, the total daily warehouse - receipt quantity of CZCE ferromanganese, the total daily effective forecast of ferromanganese, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises in China [5][7] - The average available inventory days of ferrosilicon in East China, South China, North China, and China, and the average available inventory days of ferromanganese in China from 2022 - 2026 are shown [5][7] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data include the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the开工率 of semi - coke in China, the production profit of semi - coke in China, the market price of 98% silica in Northwest China, the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang from 2022 - 2026 [5] - The profit - related data include the production cost and the profit converted to the main contract price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the spot profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia, the export profit of 75% ferrosilicon, the profit of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North China, and South China, the profit of Guangxi ferromanganese converted to the main contract price, and the profit of Ningxia ferromanganese converted to the contract price from 2022 - 2026 [5][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Steel**: Before the Spring Festival, terminal demand for steel shrinks, trading is lackluster, inventory accumulation of rebar accelerates year - on - year, and hot - rolled coil shifts from inventory reduction to accumulation. The fundamentals are weakening. Blast furnace profits are stable, leading to stable output, while EAF output is likely to significantly reduce. Supply is relatively stronger than demand, and falling raw material prices further suppress the market, though cost and policy provide support at the bottom [3]. - **Iron Ore**: On the supply side, overseas shipments of iron ore decline seasonally, and the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere may affect Australian ore shipments. On the demand side, steel mills' restocking is nearly complete, hot - metal production is expected to rise, but it's the off - season for terminal consumption. Port inventories are accumulating above the seasonal norm, with high inventory pressure, and reduced market risk appetite is suppressing prices [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Before the festival, domestic coking coal mines reduce production, leading to a seasonal contraction in coking coal supply. Imported coal arrivals are at a low level, and there is an inverted price difference between domestic and international markets. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coking profits. Coke production is expected to pick up, and steel mills'复产 is leading to a slow increase in demand. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the post - festival resumption of production rhythm is the key factor to watch [34]. - **Ferroalloys**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron face a game between cost support and downstream terminal inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices are firm, providing bottom - line support. Ferroalloy profits have rebounded but are still in the red, and production remains low. Steel mills'复产 may drive demand, but the off - season for downstream steel consumption limits demand growth. Silicon manganese has a large inventory base and high de - stocking pressure, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken, and its price is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for mid - stream players such as futures - cash arbitrageurs, but the demand elasticity is limited. The downward price space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In terms of supply - demand, with the release of new production capacities, daily soda ash output is at a high level, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain high. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, daily melting is temporarily stable, and overall rigid demand is weakening. The heavy - soda balance remains in surplus. Soda ash exports remain high, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [67]. - **Glass**: Market news indicates that due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting capacity of 2,700 tons. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold - repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expected 1,000 - ton cold - repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, float glass will experience concentrated cold - repair before the Spring Festival, which is slightly beyond expectations. The daily melting capacity will drop to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in Shahe, the earliest they can be implemented is after the Spring Festival, and it will take months to produce products. The pre - festival concentrated cold - repair helps relieve the inventory and spot pressure after the Spring Festival. Float glass is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the high inventory in the middle - stream is a risk point. If a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be large [91]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3132 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3054 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3103 yuan/ton. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3273 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 3228 yuan/ton, and 10 contract was 3247 yuan/ton. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions remained stable compared to the previous day [4][9][12]. - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2. The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 78, and that of hot - rolled coil was 45 [4][20]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of iron ore 01 contract was 733.5 yuan/ton, 05 contract was 762.5 yuan/ton, and 09 contract was 745 yuan/ton. The 01 basis was 31 yuan/ton, 05 basis was 1.5 yuan/ton, and 09 basis was 19 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of February 6, 2026, the daily average hot - metal output was 228.58 tons, the port desilting volume of 45 ports was 341.08 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 761 tons, the global shipment volume was 2535.3 tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 1881.1 tons, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2361.3 tons, the inventory at 45 ports was 17140.71 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills was 10316.64 tons, and the available days for 247 steel mills were 36.55 days [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was - 173.5, the 05 - 09 spread was - 80, and the 01 - 05 spread was 253.5. The 09 - 01 spread of coke was - 90, the 05 - 09 spread was - 75, and the 01 - 05 spread was 165. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in various regions showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [35][37][38]. - **Profit Data**: The on - disk coking profit was - 37 yuan/ton, the main ore - coke ratio was 0.457, the main rebar - coke ratio was 1.832, and the main coke - coal ratio was 1.474 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On February 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40, the 01 - 05 spread was 144, the 05 - 09 spread was - 60, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 84. The spot prices in different regions showed a slight decline compared to the previous week [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On February 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176, the 01 - 05 spread was 104, the 05 - 09 spread was - 42, and the 09 - 01 spread was - 62. The spot prices in various regions remained stable [50][52]. Soda Ash - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1178 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1240 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1288 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 62, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 48, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 110. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions remained stable [68]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, the inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, and the rigid demand is weakening. Soda ash exports remain high [67]. Glass - **Price and Spread Data**: On February 11, 2026, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, 09 contract was 1189 yuan/ton, and 01 contract was 1226 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 102, the 9 - 1 month spread was - 37, and the 1 - 5 month spread was 139 [92]. - **Production and Sales Data**: The daily production and sales data of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed fluctuations in the recent period [92].

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 Z0021009 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5576 | -4 | -78 | 84609 | -14616 | 166811 | -4474 | | SM主力合约 | 5824 | 6 | -44 | 99449 | -33133 | 367431 | -6906 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5390 | 0 | -30 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 0 | 0 | | 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current black series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly operate in a weak range - bound oscillation, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and possible marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, it shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. - For polysilicon, the supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, it is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27]. Summary by Directory Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3052 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 15710 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 2.0655 million lots, an increase of 60036 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3150 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3220 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand of rebar have shown obvious seasonal declines, and the inventory has entered the accumulation stage, but the overall inventory accumulation range is still controllable [2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3220 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.58%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 253200 tons, an increase of 9424 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5428 million lots, an increase of 43035 lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively stable, the output has decreased slightly, the inventory has accumulated slightly, and the supply - demand structure is generally neutral [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 761.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.00% (+ 0.00). The position changed by + 556 lots to 513900 lots. The weighted position was 878500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 767 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.47% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments have decreased significantly. The near - end arrivals have decreased. The daily hot - metal output is lower than expected, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival, and attention should be paid to overseas ore shipments and the domestic hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On February 10, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 0.10% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.25% at 5580 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but short - term market sentiment is affected by the adjustment of precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On February 10, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 2.445% at 1119.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a basis of 241 yuan/ton; the medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1270 yuan/ton, with a basis of 134 yuan/ton; the Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, with a basis of 83 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 2.26% at 1665.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60.5 yuan/ton; the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 101 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the long - term, the bullish trend of commodities may continue, but in the short term, the market is affected by precious metals. The short - term upward catalytic force is not strong, and there may be a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival. It is expected to rise smoothly from June to October [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8375 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 75). The weighted contract position increased by 12176 lots to 418432 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - passed industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 825 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 475 yuan/ton [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It shows a pattern of weak supply and demand in February. It is expected to be weakly oscillating before the festival, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [19][20]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 48950 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 420). The weighted contract position decreased by 183 lots to 65828 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the N - type dense material was 52.75 yuan/kg, and the N - type re - feeding material was 53.65 yuan/kg, all with no change. The basis was 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is stable, and the high inventory is expected to be slightly reduced. The futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to post - festival demand and spot prices [22]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Information**: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1070 yuan/ton, down 0.74% (- 8). The North China large - plate price was 1030 yuan, and the Central China price was 1110 yuan, both with no change. On February 5, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million boxes, an increase of 0.5 million boxes (+ 0.95%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20888 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 612 short positions [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract being 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton [25]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Tuesday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1171 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1121 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan. On February 5, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 36900 tons (+ 0.95%), including 746100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 30000 tons, and 835000 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 6900 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased 10237 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 28617 short positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to continue to operate weakly, with the reference range of the main contract being 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, on February 11, 2026, the latest price for Ningxia 72 was 5270, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -80; the latest price for Inner Mongolia 72 was 5320, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -30; the latest price for Qinghai 72 was 5250, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of -50; the latest price for Shaanxi 72 was 5250, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -50; the latest price for Shaanxi 75 was 6000, with no daily or weekly change. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1055, and Tianjin 75 was 1115, both with no daily or weekly change [1]. - For silicon manganese, on February 11, 2026, the latest price for Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5650, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -30; the latest price for Ningxia 6517 was 5570, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -40; the latest price for Guangxi 6517 was 5750, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price for Guizhou 6517 was 5700, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price for Yunnan 6517 was 5700, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price for Guangxi 6014 was 5050, with a daily change of -50 and a weekly change of -50 [1]. Supply - For silicon iron, data on the production volume of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) are presented from 2022 - 2026 [4]. - For silicon manganese, data on the production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) and the capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese enterprises in China (monthly) from 2022 - 2026 are provided [6]. Demand - For silicon iron, data on the estimated and actual production volume of crude steel in China (monthly), the production volume of metal magnesium in China (monthly), the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly), the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group (monthly) from 2022 - 2026 are shown [4]. - For silicon manganese, data on the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (monthly), the export volume of silicon manganese in China (monthly), and the estimated production volume of crude steel in China (monthly) from 2022 - 2026 are provided [7]. Inventory - For silicon iron, data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon iron on CZCE (daily), and the average available days of inventory in East China, South China, and the Northern region (monthly) from 2022 - 2026 are presented [5]. - For silicon manganese, data on the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon manganese on CZCE (daily), the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly), and the average available days of inventory in China (monthly) from 2022 - 2026 are provided [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, data on electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (daily), the market price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi (daily), the production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia (monthly), and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron (monthly) from 2022 - 2026 are shown [5]. - For silicon manganese, data on the cost of raw materials such as chemical coke, manganese ore, etc., and the profit of silicon manganese production in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the Northern region, and the Southern region (monthly) from 2022 - 2026 are provided [6][7].