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《有色》日报-20250924
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term, the copper market has weak drivers, and the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates narrowly. Macroscopically, if subsequent inflation and employment data strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, it is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper prices will gradually rise. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is in a fundamental pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to change fundamentally in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to maintain a volatile operation, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm in the short term, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous metal sector due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, the price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is weak, and there are disturbances in the ore end, but the actual impact is limited. The cost still has support. In the short term, there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a state where the downstream is replenishing goods moderately before the festival, but the overall transaction is based on rigid demand. The raw material price is firm, and the cost has support. The short - term disk is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight balance. The supply path is becoming clearer, and the trading space is weakening. The strong demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and sort out, and the main price center is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,010 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference was 1,799 yuan/ton, down 3.93% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous day. The import loss was 1,541 yuan/ton, up 242.3 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,850 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 21,880 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day. The import loss was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 147.64 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price was 270,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The import loss was 11,388.05 yuan/ton, up 1,007.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 177 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The domestic refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - to - month spread of 2510 - 2511 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [17].
赣锋锂业:经济效益与环保效益双赢| 2025华夏ESG实践绿色机遇案例
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-23 10:14
Company Overview - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. is the first A+H listed company in China's lithium industry, with A-share code 002460 and H-share code 01772. The company has developed industrial technologies for lithium extraction from brine, ore, and recycling, forming five major business segments: lithium resource development, lithium salt deep processing, lithium metal smelting, lithium battery manufacturing, and lithium battery recycling. It produces over 40 types of lithium compounds and lithium metal products, making it one of the most comprehensive manufacturers in the lithium product supply chain [1]. Green Transition Initiatives - In response to the critical background of green transformation, the company is enhancing its research and manufacturing capabilities for power battery technology, expanding advanced production capacity for high-nickel ternary and solid-state batteries in phases to meet electric vehicle market demand. The company is also accelerating the iteration of household energy storage products and strengthening commercial energy storage solutions, including the development and promotion of integrated solar-storage applications [2]. - The company is advancing battery recycling capacity construction and improving its vertical integration capabilities in the "retired battery-black powder lithium-recycled materials" process. Through technological innovation, it aims to enhance lithium recycling rates and actively align with domestic and international policies to build a policy-driven recycled lithium salt supply system, specifically enhancing the production capacity and technical standards for recycled materials [2]. Sustainable Projects - The company has launched green solutions, first applied to its own projects. For instance, in the Mariana project in Argentina, a photovoltaic power station with an installed capacity of 120 MW was built, equipped with a 288 MWh energy storage system using self-developed batteries, ensuring the project operates entirely on renewable energy with stable power supply for 24 hours. Additionally, the domestic transportation segment has been fully electrified, with external transport widely using electric vehicles, resulting in a reduction of approximately 1,265.85 tons of CO2 emissions at the Ma Hong ten-thousand-ton lithium salt factory through oil-to-electricity conversion [2]. - Internal transportation utilizes electric forklifts and loaders, with each electric forklift reducing emissions by approximately 53.39 tons annually and each electric loader by about 220.53 tons. All power batteries used are sourced from the company's own production, creating a "green closed-loop" value chain from raw materials to products [2]. Future Development Plans - In 2024, the lithium chemical segment plans to research brine extraction technology to replace traditional salt flat evaporation, significantly reducing the area required for salt flats and freshwater usage, while improving lithium recovery rates and saving costs. The lithium battery segment focuses on solid-state batteries and mobile energy storage, developing power batteries for various applications and entering the commercial energy storage market [3]. - The company is establishing a comprehensive value chain system that includes production technology optimization, waste raw material recycling, capacity construction, and industrial cluster development in the lithium circular economy. Through industry-academia-research cooperation, it is advancing "circular economy projects" to expand resource reserves and enhance utilization efficiency. These initiatives aim to reduce carbon footprints while solidifying market competitiveness and expanding shares in emerging markets, achieving a win-win in economic and environmental benefits [3].
赣锋锂业:经济效益与环保效益双赢|2025华夏ESG实践绿色机遇案例
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-09-23 09:50
Company Overview - Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. is the first A+H listed company in China's lithium industry, with A-share code 002460 and H-share code 01772. The company has developed industrial technologies for lithium extraction from brine, ore, and recycling, forming five major business segments: lithium resource development, lithium salt deep processing, lithium metal smelting, lithium battery manufacturing, and lithium battery recycling. It produces over 40 types of lithium compounds and lithium metal products, making it one of the most comprehensive lithium product manufacturers [1]. Green Transition Initiatives - In response to the electric vehicle market demand, the company is enhancing its research and manufacturing capabilities for power battery technology, expanding advanced production capacity for high-nickel ternary and solid-state batteries. It is also accelerating the iteration of household energy storage products and strengthening commercial energy storage solutions, including the development and promotion of integrated solar-storage applications [2]. - The company is advancing battery recycling capacity and improving its vertical integration capabilities in the "retired battery-black powder lithium-recycled materials" process. Through technological innovation, it aims to enhance lithium recycling rates and actively align with domestic and international policies to establish a policy-driven recycled lithium salt supply system [2]. Sustainable Projects - Ganfeng Lithium has launched green solutions, exemplified by the construction of a 120MW photovoltaic power station near its Mariana project in Argentina, equipped with a 288MWh energy storage system using self-developed batteries, ensuring the project operates entirely on renewable energy with stable power supply [2]. - The company has fully electrified its domestic transportation, utilizing electric vehicles for external transport. Its lithium salt factory has reduced carbon emissions by approximately 1,265.85 tons through oil-to-electricity conversion. Internal transport employs electric forklifts and loaders, with each electric forklift reducing emissions by about 53.39 tons annually and each electric loader by approximately 220.53 tons, all powered by the company's self-produced batteries, creating a "green closed-loop" from raw materials to products [2]. Research and Development Focus - In 2024, the lithium chemical segment will research brine extraction technology to replace traditional salt pond evaporation, significantly reducing the area required for salt ponds and freshwater usage while improving lithium recovery rates and cost savings. The lithium battery segment will focus on solid-state batteries and mobile energy storage, developing power batteries for various applications and entering the commercial energy storage market [3]. - The company is establishing a comprehensive value chain system for the circular economy, covering production technology optimization, waste raw material recycling, capacity building, and industrial cluster development. Through industry-academia-research collaboration, it is advancing "circular economy projects" to expand resource reserves and enhance utilization efficiency, achieving a win-win in economic and environmental benefits while reducing carbon footprints and strengthening market competitiveness [3].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:33
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The impact of rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reason and macro - background. The previous loose trading may end, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the short - term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend, and the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price was volatile last week. The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand pull from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection point [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price declined last week. The cost support is significant, and the demand is in a mild recovery. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The import TC is rising steadily, and the supply side is expected to be loose. The demand side shows differentiation at home and abroad. The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates in September. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000. Attention should be paid to the tin ore import from Myanmar [9]. Nickel - The nickel price was volatile last week. After the Fed's rate cut, the macro - sentiment was digested. There is no obvious change in the spot transaction of refined nickel. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 120,000 - 125,000, and attention should be paid to the macro - expectation and ore news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price declined slightly last week. The raw material price is firm, but the peak - season demand has not been realized. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill dynamics and peak - season demand [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price was volatile last week. The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained at 79,990 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper's premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton, with a 6.70% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.18 million tons to 72.45 million tons, with a 4.59% increase [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 209 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - new spreads in different regions increased, with the largest increase of 2.43% in the Foshan profile aluminum scrap - new spread [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 15.17 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing starting rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 58.05% [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 269,300 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 tin premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 122,750 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 179 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons, with a 2.07% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,100 yuan/ton. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.60 million tons to 47.20 million tons, with a 1.26% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 858 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [15].
《有色》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:35
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Fed's "preventive" rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support, and the copper price center will gradually rise. In the short term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, considering the cost, the downside space is limited, while the upside needs Guinea's supply changes or macro - sentiment catalysis. It is expected to trade between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overall macro - environment is still slightly positive. The cost of alumina is weak, and demand is in the traditional peak season. However, the inventory is accumulating, so the price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is constrained. The demand is moderately recovering, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supports the spot price. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand shows a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The zinc price is under pressure. In the short term, it may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the fundamentals have limited support for continuous upward movement. It is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The macro - environment has a mixed impact. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in traditional sectors but has some growth in emerging sectors. The fundamentals continue to improve, and the tin price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [9]. - **Nickel**: After the Fed's rate - cut expectation is realized, the macro - sentiment is digested. The industry has limited changes, and the inventory is rising overseas and slightly increasing domestically. The price is expected to be in an interval - volatile range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - environment is weak overseas and positive domestically. The raw material price is firm, but the demand in the peak season fails to meet expectations. The price is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract trading between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - sentiment is gradually digested. The supply path is clear, and the demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remains unchanged at 79,990 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium increases by 15 yuan/ton. The SMM wet - process copper price rises by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increases by 110 yuan/ton, or 6.70% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 40 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreases by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production is 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the electrolytic copper import volume is 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The copper concentrate inventory in domestic ports increases by 3.18 million tons, or 4.59% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rises by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.14%. The import loss increases by 209 yuan/ton. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreases by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production is 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production is 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The electrolytic aluminum import volume in July is 24.83 million tons, and the export volume is 4.10 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increase. The 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots is 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreases by 20 yuan/ton, or 0.09%. The import loss increases by 15.17 yuan/ton. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 15 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production is 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the refined zinc import volume is 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%, and the export volume is 0.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78.45% [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreases by 900 yuan/ton, or 0.33%. The SMM 1 tin premium increases by 50 yuan/ton, or 14.29%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increases by 30.59 dollars/ton, or 19.74% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import volume is 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 is - 179 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss of futures increases by 13.47% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August is 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The refined nickel import volume is 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread remains unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in August is 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume is 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30%, and the export volume is 41.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.07%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production is 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand is 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The total inventory is 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [15].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 07:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under a loose background. The main contract is expected to range between 80,000 - 82,000 [1] Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if cost support weakens and demand does not improve significantly, prices may decline. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, with the main contract ranging from 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement fails to meet expectations, prices may fall [3] Aluminum Alloy - As the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season approaches, spot prices are expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow further. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4] Zinc - Due to the expected supply surplus, the upside space for Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short term, prices may rise driven by the macro environment, but the fundamental support for continuous upward movement is insufficient. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 21,800 - 22,800 [7] Tin - Supply remains tight, and with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 [9] Nickel - Macro sentiment is strengthening, costs are supported, and there are no obvious short - term supply - demand contradictions, but the inventory reduction pace has slowed down. In the medium term, the supply surplus will limit the upside space. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in a strong - side range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11] Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, raw material prices are firm, and inventory pressure is easing. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,400 [13] Lithium Carbonate - Affected by positive policy information, the market sentiment is strong. The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center ranging from 70,000 - 75,000 [14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 81,120 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1] Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton; alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly [3] Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions remained unchanged. The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in different regions increased [4] Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. The import loss was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.09 yuan/ton [7] Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.33% to 272,400 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 277.36% to - 132.00 US dollars/ton [9] Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 123,600 yuan/ton; the import loss decreased by 18.32% to 1,507 yuan/ton [11] Supply - Demand and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. Refined nickel imports were 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,200 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 14.29% to 400 yuan/ton [13] Fundamental Data - In August, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [13] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.55% to 72,850 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 70,600 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. Lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [14]
《有色》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:12
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250916
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 07:08
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term trading liquidity is loose, and the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to oscillate upward, reaching 81,500 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is almost certain, but the continuous boost to copper prices is limited, and the "stagflation - like" environment restricts the scope of interest rate cuts. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, with medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions providing bottom support. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price showed a low - level oscillating trend. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand pull is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the short - term price will oscillate around the peak - season expectation and actual consumption realization, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of the price rising and then falling if demand improvement is less than expected [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated at a high level. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, and the demand has a slight recovery. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of improved interest rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, but Shanghai zinc is relatively weak. The supply is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market is generally strong. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the interest rate cut rhythm remains unchanged, and domestic policies are favorable. Industrially, the stainless steel demand is weak, while the price of nickel sulfate is rising. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated upward. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and domestic policies are positive. The supply pressure exists, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Policy windows boost the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually clear, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract price center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1.89% to 54% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The regenerated aluminum alloy operating rate decreased by 0.35% to 53.41% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing operating rate increased by 5.98% to 56.06% [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel product was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 478,100 tons [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 72,450 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [17].
广发期货:《有色》日报-20250916
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The short - term improvement in interest - rate cut expectations boosts copper prices, but the long - term impact of interest - rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reasons and macro background. The fundamentals show a state of "weak reality + stable expectations" [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand stimulation is limited. The price is under pressure from inventory accumulation, but the downside space is relatively limited. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate around the realization of peak - season expectations and actual consumption, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If demand improvement is less than expected, the price may fall after rising [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5][6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Under the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metal prices are generally strong, but zinc shows relatively weak performance. The supply is expected to be loose, and the upward space is limited, but the price may be driven up by the macro - environment in the short term [8]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is favorable, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [13]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton. The macro - expectations are improved, and the cost is supported, but the peak - season demand has not been significantly released [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. Policy windows boost the macro - expectations, and the demand is optimistic, while the supply path is becoming clearer [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.10% to 2,064 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss was - 139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.84 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the electrolytic copper import volume was 296,900 tons, a decrease of 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton, and the alumina average price in various regions decreased slightly. The import profit and loss was - 1,745 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, and the aluminum profile production rate increased by 1.89% to 54%. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 485,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained at 21,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference between scrap and refined aluminum in various regions increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, an increase of 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 3,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 480.12 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the refined zinc import volume was 17,900 tons, a decrease of 50.35% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 40.00% to 350 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, a decrease of 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, an increase of 15.42% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.22% to 2,300 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.27% to 224,484 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 1.14% to 13,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel net export volume was 343,200 tons, an increase of 22.37% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 72,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.13% to 74,150 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, an increase of 8.25% month - on - month [17].
有色日报-20250911
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:39
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - In the short term, interest rate cuts boost the financial attribute of copper, lifting the bottom center of copper prices. However, without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upside space is also limited. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and copper prices will at least fluctuate. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. For aluminum, the macro - environment provides support, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract this week is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate. To continue to rebound upwards, there needs to be an unexpected improvement in demand and a continuous improvement in interest rate cut expectations under non - recession conditions. To break through downwards, the TC needs to strengthen unexpectedly and refined zinc needs to continuously accumulate inventory. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - Macro - environment is generally stable, with some cost support in the short term. There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down. The price decline space is limited, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upside space. The main contract is expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, and inventory pressure has eased. However, the peak - season demand has not been significantly released, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [14][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The resumption of production expectations affect market sentiment, and strong demand provides support for the price floor. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 72,000 - yuan pressure level for the main contract [19]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,745 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 104 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2,532 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.77 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 270,100 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,365.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,550 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was - 1,805 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price was 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1.54% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 68.83 million tons, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% from the previous month. The aluminum profile开工率 was 53.00%, an increase of 1.92% from the previous week [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 was 53.41%, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% from the previous month. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 15.21 million tons, an increase of 3.96% from the previous week [8]. - **Tin**: In July, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.74% week - on - week [11]. - **Nickel**: Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% from the previous month. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [19].