Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Market short - covering sentiment cooled, spot trading worsened. For PE, HD - LLDPE spread narrowed, with increased marginal supply of LLDPE and weakening downstream demand in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand were both weak, with more maintenance, expected destocking in January, and improved balance. Pay attention to the implementation of future maintenance [2]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures opened lower and then fluctuated narrowly, with light spot trading. Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, while port prices are under pressure due to factors such as low MTO profits and potential device maintenance [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern but is supported by the strong performance of downstream styrene. Styrene has short - term supply shortages but may accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - Supply: Domestic production is ending, and raw material prices are rising. Demand: Some semi - steel tire export orders are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [9][10]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. Glass futures are also expected to decline, with weakening supply and demand in the off - season [11]. Urea Industry - Urea supply is high, but short - term regional agricultural demand boosts market confidence. Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream agricultural demand and plant restart schedules [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, with increased supply and lack of demand improvement. PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with high supply, low demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. LPG Industry - No specific view provided in the content Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices fell on Thursday. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and may be tight in the second quarter. PTA and MEG are expected to have weak supply - demand in January and February. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials [19]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: L2605 and L2609 closed down, PP2605 slightly up, PP2609 down. Some spreads and basis had significant changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased, while PE device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased, and PP device开工率 slightly increased [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: MA2605 and MA2609 closed down, with significant changes in some spreads and basis [5]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased slightly, while port and social inventories decreased. Upstream and downstream开工率 had different changes [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: Many prices such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene decreased, with some spreads and basis changing [8]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased, while some decreased. Pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and styrene port inventory decreased [8]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Price Changes**: Spot prices of natural rubber decreased, and some spreads changed significantly [9]. - **Production,开工率, and Inventory**: Production in some regions changed, tire开工率 increased, and inventory in China continued to accumulate [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Price Changes**: Glass and soda ash prices were mostly stable, with some futures prices down [11]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Soda ash production increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. Glass supply and demand were weak, and inventory was still relatively high year - on - year [11]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: Futures prices fluctuated down, and spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, industrial demand was stable, and agricultural demand in some regions increased [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory and port inventories decreased [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Price Changes**: Caustic soda and PVC prices decreased slightly, with some spreads and basis changing [13]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Caustic soda supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory increased in some regions. PVC supply was stable, demand was low, and inventory accumulated [13]. LPG Industry - **Price Changes**: Some futures prices changed slightly, and spot prices were stable [15]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased slightly, and some开工率 increased while some decreased [15]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent and WTI prices decreased, while SC increased slightly. Many refined oil product prices decreased [17]. - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [17]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain mostly decreased, with changes in some spreads and basis [19]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 increased slightly while some decreased. MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival forecast decreased [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] - For rubber, it has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] - For ethylene glycol, the industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures contract closed down 4.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.89%, at 444.90 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 34.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.33%, to 2586.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil fell 15.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.48%, to 3087.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.45 million barrels, a 0.81% increase; SPR increased by 0.21 million barrels to 413.68 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 8.98 million barrels to 251.01 million barrels, a 3.71% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 129.24 million barrels, a 0.02% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.74 million barrels to 24.72 million barrels, a 7.55% increase; and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 43.14 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, the short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2273 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 17 yuan [5][10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, the outlook for the coming year is improving, and there is limited downside. Due to potential geopolitical factors in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in different regions changed as follows: Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 61 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 13 yuan/ton, closing at 1801 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, there is a bearish fundamental outlook. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, following macro trends. Bulls were optimistic due to seasonal and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 3.1 - ton increase from the previous week, a 2.5% increase. The spot prices of some rubber products also changed [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It has a weak seasonal pattern. Adopt a neutral approach currently. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short - selling strategy. Partially build a position for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [15] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 10 yuan to 4868 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 218 (0) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 124 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.7%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 44%, a 0.1% increase. Factory and social inventories increased [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support the price. In the medium term, the strategy is to short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5585 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of pure benzene widened by 59 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 7250 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the active styrene contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 7103 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene strengthened by 113 yuan/ton to 147 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, a 0.22% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.17 tons to 10.06 tons. The weighted operating rate of the "Three S" products on the demand side was 40.90%, a 0.11% increase [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to low, with a large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the end of the first quarter [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6840 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis strengthened by 25 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread widened by 6 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6592 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6575 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The basis strengthened by 48 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread narrowed by 37 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 132 yuan to 7130 yuan, and PX CFR fell 16 dollars to 881 dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 3). The 3 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX operating rate was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease, and the Asian operating rate was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. In early January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 14.6 tons, a 0.7 - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 402 tons, a 5 - ton decrease from the previous month [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the crude oil price [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 68 yuan to 5048 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 5050 yuan. The basis was - 64 yuan (+6), and the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan (- 8). The PTA operating rate was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot and futures processing fees increased [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up period after a short - term inventory draw. In the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 50 yuan to 3817 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis was - 140 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 111 yuan (+1). The overall supply - side operating rate was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.1%, a 0.7% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates decreased. The import arrival forecast was 14.8 tons, and the East China departure was 0.79 tons on January 14. The port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase from the previous period. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of some raw materials changed [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's overall load is still high, the inventory build - up period will continue, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term if there are no further domestic production cuts [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - **Production and开工率**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - **Supply and开工率**: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - **开工率**: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic natural rubber price for full latex increased to 15,850 CNY/ton, up by 150 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai mixed rubber price reached 15,150 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - As of January 11, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.256 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons, or 1.9% [4][21] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 835,000 tons, up by 2.5% [4][21] - The market is expected to see high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices in the short term due to seasonal factors and inventory dynamics [5][22] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 90.9%, while Asia's load also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 81.2% [6][23] - The demand for PX is expected to rise as downstream PTA facilities restart, leading to a narrowing of PX inventory accumulation in January [6][23] - Despite geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, the polyester industry remains supported, although seasonal demand weakness is anticipated [6][23] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load increased by 0.1 percentage points to 78.2%, remaining at a historically low level [7][24] - New order sentiment is weak, with a decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [7][24] - PTA inventory is expected to face accumulation pressure in January due to seasonal demand decline and maintenance schedules [7][24][25] Group 4: EG Market - Ethylene glycol industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.2%, with significant room for further improvement [10][27] - Despite rising shipping costs and potential import reductions, domestic supply remains ample, leading to significant supply pressure [10][27] - January is expected to see inventory accumulation, with February potentially being the peak period for inventory pressure in the first half of the year [10][27] Group 5: PF Market - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load remained stable at 99.1%, supported by low inventory levels [11][28] - Demand from downstream yarn enterprises is cautious as they prepare for the holiday season, leading to a decline in purchasing [11][28] - Short-term demand weakness is expected to continue to suppress prices, although cost support remains [11][28] Group 6: PR Market - The bottle-grade PET industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 74.8%, but remains at historically low levels [11][28] - Demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with limited production recovery expected in January [11][28] Group 7: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures saw a slight decline, with stable spot prices [12][29] - Recent production increased by 57,000 tons to 754,000 tons, leading to increased supply pressure [12][29] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with inventory levels showing mixed trends [12][29] Group 8: Glass Market - Glass futures experienced a slight decline, with stable spot prices [13][30] - Recent production decreased, while downstream purchasing activity has improved, leading to a reduction in inventory [13][30] - Seasonal demand weakness is anticipated, with short-term price fluctuations expected [13][30] Group 9: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda prices have seen slight declines, with high supply levels maintained [14][31] - Downstream demand remains weak, impacting market prices [14][31] Group 10: PVC Market - PVC futures declined by 10 CNY/ton to 4,878 CNY/ton, with ongoing supply pressure [15][32] - The supply side remains in an upward trend, while demand is expected to improve only slightly [15][32] - Short-term market dynamics are expected to remain volatile, with a focus on price fluctuations [15][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For urea, due to the opening of the import window and the expected improvement in production at the end of January, a bearish outlook on the fundamentals is approaching, so it is advisable to take profits at high prices [3]. - For crude oil, considering the Singapore ESG oil product weekly data and the supply situation, a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term to test OPEC's export price - support intention [5]. - For rubber, a bearish approach is currently adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term short - selling strategy can be considered, and partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12][13]. - For PVC, given the current supply - demand situation, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium term before significant production cuts in the industry [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter, considering factors such as the price, inventory, and profit situation [19]. - For polyethylene, a strategy of going long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices is recommended, as the crude oil price may have bottomed out and the inventory is expected to decline [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year when the supply - surplus pattern changes, given the current supply - demand and inventory situation [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [28]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. There are medium - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31][32]. - For ethylene glycol, the port inventory - building cycle will continue, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term without further production cuts in China [34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and remained unchanged in other regions. The overall basis was reported at - 37 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, reaching 1,777 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profits at high prices due to the expected bearish fundamentals [3]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Singapore ESG oil product weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.13 million barrels to 15.41 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.05 million barrels, a 2.21% decline; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.34 million barrels to 25.41 million barrels, a 5.02% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.65 million barrels to 48.87 million barrels, a 3.27% decline. INE main crude oil futures rose 14.70 yuan/ton, a 3.52% increase, reaching 432.70 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see in the short term [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price showed signs of weakness. The long - position holders of natural rubber RU believed that production in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might be limited, and there were positive expectations for demand in China. The short - position holders thought that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, and demand was in the off - season. As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.54%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week but down 1.60 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.00%, down 1.73 percentage points from the previous week and 10.65 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.2 tons, a 2.5% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 81.5 tons, a 3% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 41.7 tons, a 1.3% increase; and the inventory in Qingdao was 54.43 (+2.49) tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, consider a short - term short - selling strategy, and partially establish positions for the strategy of buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12][13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 8 yuan, reaching 4,897 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,620 (-30) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 277 (-22) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 136 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.7%, up 1%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 79.7%, up 1.4%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.6%, up 0.3%. The overall downstream operating rate was 44%, up 0.1%. Factory inventory was 32.8 tons (+1.9), and social inventory was 111.4 tons (+3.7) [14]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price also remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate was 70.92%, up 0.22%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.65 tons to 13.23 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.90%, up 0.11%; the operating rate of PS was 58.90%, down 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 46.72%, up 3.07%; the operating rate of ABS was 69.80%, down 0.10% [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6,674 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6,525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 149 yuan/ton, weakening by 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, up 0.04%. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, up 2.47 tons, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, up 0.17 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 40.8%, down 0.35%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, narrowing by 4 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, down 1.03%. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, down 2.3 tons; the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, up 2.75 tons; the port inventory was 7.11 tons, up 0.48 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.76%, down 0.48%. The LL - PP spread was 160 yuan/ton, widening by 16 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy**: The futures price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year when the supply - surplus pattern changes [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 70 yuan, reaching 7,238 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 6 dollars, and the basis was - 28 yuan (-29). The 3 - 5 spread was - 30 yuan (+12). The operating rate in China was 90.9%, up 0.3%; the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, up 0.3%. A 820,000 - ton overseas device in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, up 0.1%. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, an increase of 42,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 4.02 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 345 dollars (-22), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 dollars (-5), and the naphtha crack spread was 81 dollars (-9) [27]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to maintain a slight inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season, and there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price at low levels [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 22 yuan, reaching 5,108 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 35 yuan, reaching 5,035 yuan. The basis was - 55 yuan (-7). The 5 - 9 spread was 64 yuan (+4). The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, up 0.1%. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 4 was 2.03 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 62 yuan to 305 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 24 yuan to 360 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. There are medium - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31][32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract increased by 20 yuan, reaching 3,866 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan, reaching 3,697 yuan. The basis was - 150 yuan (-7). The 5 - 9 spread was - 94 yuan (-3). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, up 0.2%; the operating rate of synthetic gas production was 78.6%, up 2.8%; the operating rate of ethylene production was 71.3%, down 1.2%. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 8 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 810 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 894 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 283 yuan [33]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory - building cycle will continue, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term without further production cuts in China [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].

Summary of Industry Conference Call on Calcium Carbide and Chlor-alkali Industry Industry Overview - The conference discussed the calcium carbide, chlor-alkali, and PVC industries, focusing on recent policy changes and market dynamics in China, particularly in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia regions [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Policy Changes - Shaanxi Province has introduced a differentiated electricity pricing policy targeting "restricted" and "eliminated" enterprises, aiming to drive industrial restructuring and technological upgrades. The impact on the national market is expected to be limited due to the low capacity share (approximately 10%) and low operating rates [1][4]. - The policy classifies "restricted" enterprises as those with outdated technology or non-compliance with safety and environmental standards, while "eliminated" enterprises are those hindering carbon neutrality goals [5][6]. - Inner Mongolia has implemented a policy to phase out calcium carbide furnaces below 30,000 kVA, with existing furnaces being medium to large-sized, thus having a lower impact on energy consumption and pollution [7]. Industry Performance - The calcium carbide industry has a total capacity of 40.58 million tons in 2025, with an operating rate of 72%-73%. New capacity additions are limited, reducing the likelihood of supply tightness [3][9]. - The PVC industry has a total capacity of 29.93 million tons, with an operating load rate of nearly 78%. Although 1.1 million tons of capacity is expected to exit, new capacity additions are anticipated to exceed this figure [2][9]. - The chlor-alkali industry has a total capacity of 49.88 million tons, with an operating rate of about 88%. Significant new capacity is expected in 2026, estimated at around 4.2 million tons [10]. Market Dynamics - PVC exports are benefiting from domestic oversupply, increased international demand, and supportive policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative. The suspension of India's anti-dumping policies also supports exports [13]. - The relationship between PVC and real estate remains strong, with emerging applications having limited impact on overall demand [13]. - The chlor-alkali sector is performing well, with minimal impact from market exits due to its overall profitability [8]. Technological Developments - The development of mercury-free PVC production methods is ongoing, with costs increasing by approximately 150 RMB compared to traditional methods. The future of this technology depends on its economic feasibility and international agreements [14]. Additional Important Insights - The differentiated pricing policy is not a new requirement but an adjustment based on local conditions, with limited external impact due to the small share of total capacity [4]. - The long-term impact of the policy on market sentiment may be significant, but the actual fundamental effects are expected to be limited [4]. - The industry is more reliant on market-driven mechanisms for optimization rather than forced government interventions, allowing for a natural process of elimination and upgrade [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese government is promoting "anti-involution" policies and stable growth initiatives, which are expected to lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity in the petrochemical industry and foster healthy industry development [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement a stable growth work plan for the petrochemical industry from 2025 to 2026, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value [2][3] - The focus will be on structural adjustments, optimizing supply, and eliminating outdated production capacity in key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [2][3] Group 2 - Strict control policies on high-energy-consuming industries such as calcium carbide and caustic soda have been in place since 2016, aiming to limit new production capacity and promote energy-saving and pollution-reduction upgrades [3] - The report indicates that the calcium carbide industry is expected to see an increase in concentration as outdated capacity is eliminated, which will improve overall industry conditions [4] - The liquid alkali industry is currently at a low point, with a projected single-ton gross profit of 744 yuan by the end of 2025, indicating a need for supply-side improvements to drive industry recovery [5] Group 3 - The PVC market is closely tied to the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with a projected apparent consumption of approximately 1,866 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 7.1% decline from 2020 [6][7] - The PVC industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top six companies holding only 26% of the total production capacity, which is expected to change as environmental policies tighten and outdated capacities are phased out [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in various sectors, including the calcium carbide-chloralkali-PVC industry chain and nitrogen fertilizer industry, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Urea - On January 6, urea futures closed higher, and the spot market rose slightly. The overall trading atmosphere improved, but the short - term high - supply situation was difficult to change, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The urea price was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of subsequent devices and the progress of downstream industrial and agricultural demand [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, and the spot market was relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of the caustic soda market was expected to be stable and weak, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine. PVC prices rose rapidly on January 6, but the supply - demand contradiction increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply of domestic petroleum benzene was stable, but the port inventory was high. The overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level. The short - term supply - demand of styrene was in a tight balance, but the rebound space was limited [3]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber faced increased pressure from overseas production areas, but the cost support strengthened. The downstream replenishment was cautious, and the inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The rubber price was driven up by market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [4]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, oil prices rose first and then fell. The short - term price of Brent crude oil was expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rebounded, but the supply - demand situation was still under pressure, and the price rebound space was limited. Glass prices rebounded at night, but the demand was expected to weaken, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion of the middle - stream [9]. LPG - LPG prices rose, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term market was affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory changes [11]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to rise. The inland market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the port inventory was expected to enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter, and the market was expected to maintain a strong - fluctuating pattern [13][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply of PX and PTA was expected to be high in January, but the demand was weak. The prices of PX and PTA were expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand of MEG was expected to accumulate inventory, and the price was under pressure. The supply - demand of short - fiber and bottle - chip was weak, and the prices were expected to follow the raw materials [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, the 01 contract was 1694 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 05 contract was 1768 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; the 09 contract was 1730 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; the main contract was 2293 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 84 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 33 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 48 yuan/ton, up 6.25% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.25%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.36% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials were stable, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 0.61% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of small - particle urea in most regions rose slightly, and the FOB prices in China and the US Gulf were stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily production of urea increased to 204,000 tons, the weekly production decreased by 0.49%, the plant - level inventory decreased by 4.65%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.50% [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the market price of PVC in East China increased, the prices of futures contracts V2601 and V2605 rose by 3.3%, and the basis and spreads changed [2]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit decreased [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was stable, the demand of downstream industries was weak, and the inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3%, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products changed [3]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene in East China increased by 0.7%, and the spreads and basis of styrene futures changed [3]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7%. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On January 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis and spreads changed [4]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: In November, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and the operating rates of tire - related industries changed [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber increased by 4.48%, and the inventory in Qingdao showed different changes in inbound and outbound rates [4]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.72%, the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 2.04%, and the spreads between different crude oil varieties and contracts changed [6][7]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between different refined oil contracts changed [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions were stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts changed slightly [9]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions were stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and weekly production of soda ash decreased, the inventory of soda ash increased significantly, and the demand of downstream industries decreased [9]. LPG - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [11]. - **LPG Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased slightly, the port inventory decreased by 8.41%, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [11]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Methanol Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [13][14][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of PX - related products increased [18]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, etc. changed slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees of polyester products changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of MEG ports decreased slightly, and the operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [18].