Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish view is taken. It is recommended to buy on dips with a short - term trading approach and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in China. The fundamentals are poor, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before substantial production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand is likely to maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.53%, to 453.70 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25, while those in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 36 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 and a 1 - 5 spread of +2, reporting - 4 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 1673 yuan, with a basis of +27 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 6, reporting - 63 [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the supply - demand situation has improved and there is support at the bottom [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber was oscillating weakly. The warehouse receipts of the exchange's RU inventory were low. The start - up rate of tire factories was sluggish [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, buy on dips with a short - term trading approach, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 74 yuan to 4426 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4410 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 (+24) yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 291 (- 9) yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79.9%, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry due to strong supply and weak demand [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis increased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased significantly [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polyethylene decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 64 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies as the long - term contradiction has shifted [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polypropylene decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton. The basis was 70 yuan/ton, strengthening by 15 yuan. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 84 yuan to 6786 yuan. The CFR price decreased by 7 dollars to 838 dollars. The load in China and Asia decreased slightly. The inventory increased month - on - month in October [27]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips as it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 46 yuan to 4678 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 4670 yuan. The basis was - 32 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan (- 4). The load remained flat, and the downstream load increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol decreased by 103 yuan to 3723 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 63 yuan to 3759 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 109 yuan (- 15). The supply load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

能源化工日报 2025-12-05 2025/12/05 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.30 元/桶，涨幅 0.73%，报 452.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 7.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.29%，报 2442.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 22.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 3024.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 0.57 百万桶至 427.50 百万桶，环比累库 0.13%；SPR 补库 0.25 百万桶至 411.67 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存累库 4.52 百万桶 至 214.42 百万桶，环比累库 2.15%；柴油库存累库 2.06 百万桶至 114.29 百万桶，环比累库 1.83%；燃料油库存累库 0.02 百万桶至 22.89 百万桶，环比累库 0.09%；航空煤油库存累库 0.61 百万桶至 43.95 百万桶，环比累库 1.41%。 从业资格号： ...

能源化工日报 2025-12-04 2025/12/04 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 5.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.15%，报 448.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 32.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.30%，报 2437.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 18.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.59%，报 3017.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 0.52 百万桶至 7.22 百万桶，环比累库 7.79%； 柴油库存累库 0.53 百万桶至 3.58 百万桶，环比累库 17.29%；燃料油库存累库 1.53 百万桶至 12.25 百万桶，环比累库 14.32%；总成品油累库 2.58 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比累库 12.63%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The reports cover multiple industries including polyolefin, methanol, crude oil, natural rubber, urea, benzene - styrene, glass - soda ash, PVC - caustic soda, and polyester产业链 on December 3, 2025 [1][5][9][10][12][13][14][15][16] Group 2: Industry Price and Spread Changes Polyolefin - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 increased on December 2 compared to December 1, with L2601 rising 0.41% to 6831 yuan/ton and PP2601 rising 0.20% to 6410 yuan/ton [2] - Price differences such as L15, LP01, etc. also had corresponding changes, with L15 rising 8.33% [2] Methanol - MA2601 decreased 0.19% to 2132 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1, while MA2605 remained unchanged [5] - Methanol enterprise inventory increased 4.19% to 37.3712%, and methanol port inventory decreased 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [5] Crude Oil - Brent decreased 1.14% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased 1.15% to 58.64 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1 [9] Natural Rubber - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased 0.34% to 14850 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [10] - The basis of whole latex decreased 13.33% to - 510 yuan/ton [10] Urea - Futures prices of different contracts had slight increases or decreases, with the 01 contract increasing 0.72% to 1687 yuan/ton [12] - The difference between the 01 and 05 contracts changed, with an increase of 4 in the difference [12] Benzene - Styrene - Brent crude oil (January) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1, and styrene in East China increased 0.9% to 6680 yuan/ton [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Glass in North China decreased 0.92% to 1080 yuan/ton, and soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased 0.4% to 4510 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [15] Polyester Industry Chain - Brent crude oil (February) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and POY150/48 price increased 0.4% to 6485 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [16] Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand and Inventory Polyolefin - Polypropylene supply maintenance due to high - level overhauls is expected to recover, and inventory reduction is accelerating but still higher than previous years; polyethylene supply is increasing, and although upstream inventory is decreasing, it is still higher year - on - year [2] Methanol - Inland methanol supply increased with device restarts, and coal - and gas - based profits were weak; port imports are expected to decline significantly in Q1 due to Iranian gas restrictions [5][6] Crude Oil - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventories of crude oil and refined oil increased according to API data [9] Natural Rubber - Supply is expected to increase during the seasonal peak production period, and inventory is accumulating, while demand from semi - steel and full - steel tire markets is weak [10] Urea - Domestic urea daily production increased 1.19% to 20.34 million tons on November 27 compared to November 28, and urea plant inventory decreased 5.10% to 136.39 million tons [12] Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is sufficient with device restarts and expected imports, and demand support is limited; styrene supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is also limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious in December [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash production decreased due to device overhauls but recently recovered, and glass factory inventory decreased slightly; real - estate data shows mixed trends with new construction area decreasing and completion area increasing [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is abundant, and demand support is weak; PVC supply pressure remains, and demand is in the off - season, but export orders are relatively good [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to be better in the medium - term, and PTA supply decreased more than expected, while demand support is stronger than expected; MEG inventory accumulation in December is expected to narrow, but supply pressure remains [16] Group 4: Industry Core Views and Strategies Polyolefin - The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2] Methanol - Inland supply increases, and port imports are expected to decline, with winter fuel demand providing support [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices are expected to continue range - bound, with Brent likely to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars/barrel in the short - term [9] Natural Rubber - The market is expected to maintain range - bound consolidation, with rubber prices expected to operate between 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [10] Urea - No specific overall view and strategy are clearly stated in the provided text [12] Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds; for styrene, short - term EB01 is recommended to be treated as wide - range fluctuations [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - range fluctuation, and glass is expected to face pressure in the medium - and long - term, with the 01 contract having pressure in December [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and PVC is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 7000 yuan/ton in the short - term; PTA is expected to be in a high - level range - bound in the short - term; MEG is expected to be in a range - bound in December; short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations, and processing fees are recommended to be shorted on highs; bottle - chip processing fees are expected to be squeezed [16]

能源化工日报 2025-12-03 2025/12/03 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 0.40 元/桶，涨幅 0.09%，报 453.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 5.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.20%，报 2469.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 19.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.63%，报 3035.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 0.30 百万桶至 207.78 百万桶，环比累库 0.14%； 汽油商业库存去库 0.15 百万桶至 85.30 百万桶，环比去库 0.18%；柴油商业库存累库 0.16 百 万桶至 91.70 百万桶，环比累库 0.17%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.01 百万桶至 176.99 百万 桶，环比累库 0.00%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, with the potential positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. However, high supply will limit further upward movement, and the market is likely to shift to a sideways adjustment. It's recommended to wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply remaining high and demand improving, the inventory is decreasing. It's suggested to consider buying at low prices [6][8]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is taken currently. It's recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation has dropped to a low level. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC + plan to pause production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. - For PTA, supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.06%, to 455.70 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.84 million barrels to 8.98 million barrels (up 10.36% month - on - month), diesel inventory decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 15.08 million barrels (down 7.29% month - on - month), etc. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Prices in Taicang, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan to 2136 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 21 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 96 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. The market may shift to a sideways adjustment, and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 2 yuan to 1675 yuan, with a basis of - 5 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 69 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. Consider buying at low prices [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell with a short - term technical breakdown. Thai rubber - producing areas' floods receded. Exchange RU inventory was low. As of November 27, 2025, Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tire开工率 was 63.91%, up 3.34 percentage points from last week; semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.37%, down 0.40 percentage points from last week [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral stance, wait and see, or engage in short - term trading. Hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 4 yuan to 4553 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene increased, while caustic soda prices decreased. The overall开工率 was 80.2%, up 1.4% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose. The upstream开工率 was 84.12%, down 0.05%. The inventory of production enterprises and traders decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 44.8%, up 0.11% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC +'s plan may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price fell. The upstream开工率 was 77.97%, up 0.8%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 53.7%, up 0.13% [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 100 yuan to 6930 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 13 dollars to 849 dollars. The Chinese PX负荷 was 88.3%, down 1.2%; the Asian PX负荷 was 78.7%, down 1% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 62 yuan to 4762 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 75 yuan to 4710 yuan. The PTA负荷 was 73.7%, up 2.7% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 3882 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 3901 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 73.1%, up 2.3%. The port inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 75.3 tons [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. With the weakening of the hype about domestic production cuts and overseas floods, the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased, and the basis of whole latex also changed. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased slightly, and there were also changes in non - standard price differences and raw material prices [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: There were changes in the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of natural rubber contracts [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased to varying degrees, and the production of China increased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and in October, domestic tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume all decreased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and there were also changes in the outbound and inbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Affected by the repeated Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations and Trump's threat to Venezuela, short - term geopolitical factors still support oil prices. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel in the short term [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc. changed [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: Although the production of soda ash has decreased significantly due to some device overhauls, and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, there is still an over - supply problem in the medium term, and the overall demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [5]. - **Glass**: In the short term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the medium and long term, the demand is expected to shrink, and the glass price will be under pressure. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure when approaching the delivery month [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts [5]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained stable, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass also decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass and soda ash decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories remained unchanged [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate showed different trends [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - based and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provides support. In the port area, due to gas restrictions in Iran, multiple devices have stopped production, and the import volume in the first quarter is expected to decline significantly, strengthening the port destocking expectation and providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices in different regions changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as MA15 and regional spreads [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises increased, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, the operating rate of downstream MTO devices decreased, and the operating rates of some traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde increased [6][7]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, the inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than in previous years, and the cost - side profit is compressed. The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, the supply is on the rise, and the upstream inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than the same period. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 futures contracts increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 [9]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the trading - company inventory of PP also decreased [9]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices increased, the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly; the operating rate of PP devices decreased slightly, the operating rate of PP powder increased, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Pure Benzene**: Although the supply - demand expectation has slightly improved due to some device overhauls, the current spot supply is sufficient, and there is an expectation of port inventory accumulation. The demand - side support is limited, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will face pressure on the upside. Short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds [11]. - **Styrene**: Although some integrated devices are under centralized overhaul, the overall operating rate is stable, and the supply is expected to remain. The demand support is limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious at the end and beginning of the month. Overall, the supply - demand of styrene is in a tight balance, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6600 [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene changed, and there were also changes in price differences such as pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha [11]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene futures contracts and spot prices increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as EB01 - EB02 and EB - BZ [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol, caprolactam, and aniline changed [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu increased [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and some downstream products changed [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **PX**: Although the supply is currently at a relatively high level, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand - side support is stronger than expected. Short - term PX is expected to oscillate at a high level, and there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term supply - demand [12]. - **PTA**: The supply reduction is greater than expected, and the demand - side support is strong. The supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the price rebound space is limited. TA01 may oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and attention can be paid to the low - level positive spread opportunity of TA5 - 9 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - side contraction is not obvious, and the demand is supported by rigid demand. It is expected to oscillate in December, and EG2601 may oscillate between 3750 - 4000 [12]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure is not large in the short term, the absolute price driving force is limited, and the processing fee is mainly under compression. PFO2 is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the PF processing fee on the disk is recommended to be shorted on highs [12]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand is loose, and the social inventory is likely to accumulate seasonally. PR follows the cost - side fluctuation, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed [12]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and PX price differences changed [12]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of PTA spot and futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the basis and processing fees [12]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased [12]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and other industries changed [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry is still under pressure, the demand - side support is weak, and it is expected that the price of caustic soda will run weakly [13]. - **PVC**: It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. The supply pressure remains, the demand is sluggish, and although there is an advantage in export prices, the overall demand - side support is weak, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts [13]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased, and the export profit decreased [13]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India decreased, and the export profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port changed [13]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profits of calcium - carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [13]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries changed [13]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [13]. - **Inventory: Social Inventory & Annual**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC decreased [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Not provided Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **LPG Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512, PG2601, etc. increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as PG12 - 01, PG12 - 02, etc. [14]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The prices of FEI forward M1, M2 contracts and CP swap M1, M2 contracts decreased [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG decreased [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries decreased, the sample enterprise's weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased, the operating rate of downstream PDH increased slightly, the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged, and the operating rate of alkylation decreased [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now[3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern persists. The market is expected to bottom out gradually, but due to the rapid short - term rise, it is recommended to wait and see[4]. - For urea, the price is oscillating and rebounding at the bottom. With cost and export policy support, the downside space is limited. It is expected to oscillate and build a bottom, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips[6]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term strategy is currently recommended, with fast - in and fast - out operations. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609[9]. - For PVC, the industry has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With low enterprise profits and high inventory, it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[11][12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the benzene - to - styrene price difference is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily[15]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - side impact has shifted, and seasonal demand has started to pick up[18]. - For polypropylene, the market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. It may be supported by the cost side in the first quarter of next year[21]. - For PX, with high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to continuously decline. There is a risk of valuation correction[22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term. However, the PX valuation has a correction risk, which may limit the upside space of PTA processing fees[24]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 2.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.54%, at 445.00 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories at the Fujairah port all increased[2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now[3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price increased by 30, the Lunan price increased by 30, the Inner Mongolia price increased by 2.5, the 01 contract on the futures market increased by 27 yuan to 2094 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4. The 1 - 5 spread was + 14, at - 107[3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see due to rapid short - term rise and high near - term inventory[4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price in Shandong remained stable, the price in Henan decreased by 10, and the price in Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan to 1654 yuan, and the basis was - 34. The 1 - 5 spread was + 7, at - 64[6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the price is oscillating and rebounding at the bottom[6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: The rubber price rebounded. The main rubber - producing areas in Thailand were affected by floods, and the exchange's RU inventory and warehouse receipts were low. The spot prices of some rubber products increased. The tire factory operating rates were weak, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased[9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bullish short - term strategy with fast - in and fast - out operations, and partially establish a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609[9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 2 yuan to 4489 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4440 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 293 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased, the demand - side operating rate decreased, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased[10]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term due to strong supply and weak demand[11][12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price remained unchanged, with the basis narrowing. The spot and futures prices of styrene increased, with the basis weakening. The upstream operating rate decreased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate increased[14]. - **Strategy**: The benzene - to - styrene price difference has room for upward repair, and the styrene price may stop falling temporarily[15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6707 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 103 yuan/ton, strengthening by 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, the production enterprise inventory decreased, the trader inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased[17]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with cost - side impact shifting and seasonal demand picking up[18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 165 yuan/ton, strengthening by 32 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, the production enterprise, trader, and port inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate increased[19][20]. - **Strategy**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. It may be supported by the cost side in the first quarter of next year[21]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 56 yuan to 6774 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 3 dollars to 829 dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 34), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 38 yuan (- 8). The PX load in China and Asia increased. Some devices restarted, the PTA load decreased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased[21]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of valuation correction due to high PX load and low downstream PTA load[22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 28 yuan to 4684 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 5 yuan to 4635 yuan. The basis was - 31 yuan (+ 12), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+ 6). The PTA load decreased, some devices were under maintenance, the downstream load increased, the inventory decreased, and the processing fees decreased[23]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short - term. However, the PX valuation has a correction risk, which may limit the upside space of PTA processing fees[24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 23 yuan to 3896 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 16 yuan to 3904 yuan. The basis was 18 yuan (- 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 73 yuan (+ 15). The supply - side load decreased, some devices were under maintenance or restarted, the downstream load increased, the import volume was expected to be 9.5 tons, the East China outbound volume was 0.4 tons on November 25, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the production profits were negative[26]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term[27].