Report Date - The report was produced on August 27, 2025 [3] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 27, most domestic futures contracts ended in the red. Apples and Shanghai nickel rose over 1%. Polysilicon dropped over 4%, while coking coal and crude oil fell over 3%. Alumina, BR rubber, fuel oil, soybean No.2, and styrene declined over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) dropped 1.71%, the SSE 50 (IH) fell 1.85%, the CSI 500 (IC) decreased 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) tumbled 2.08%. In the bond futures market, the 2-year (TS) rose 0.02%, the 5-year (TF) climbed 0.06%, the 10-year (T) advanced 0.08%, and the 30-year (TL) soared 0.24% [6] Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 27, funds flowed into the CSI 500 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 300 2509 contracts, amounting to 3.741 billion, 1.151 billion, and 566 million respectively. Meanwhile, funds flowed out of the Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and SSE 50 2509 contracts, reaching 1.746 billion, 968 million, and 458 million respectively [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, facing pressure. The probability of a 25% Fed rate cut is currently 85%. The supply of copper is expected to be tight both internationally and domestically, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low. Although the downstream market is in a slack season, there is an expectation of increased demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, while the industrial-grade was 79,300 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton. The import volume in July decreased by 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The production in August and September is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year. The demand is expected to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, providing support for prices [12] Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. The EIA data shows a larger-than-expected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter. The price is expected to have limited upside potential, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][15] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% last week. The expected production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month but an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The downstream demand is weak due to factors such as funds and weather. The cost support from crude oil has weakened. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [16] PP - The downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.18 percentage points to 49.53%. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 87%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing as the consumption peak ends and OPEC+ accelerates production. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. However, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The PP market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17][18] Plastic - The plastic operating rate remained at around 84%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 40.00%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [19] PVC - The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.72 percentage points to 77.61%. The downstream demand is weak, and the export expectation has declined. The social inventory is still high. The PVC market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term [20][21] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and closed lower. The import volume in July increased significantly. The domestic production is increasing, and the inventory at mines has increased. The downstream demand is affected by environmental protection. The coking coal market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term, but the downside space is limited [22] Urea - Urea opened lower and closed lower. The spot market is weak and stable. The supply is expected to remain stable with the commissioning of new capacity. The demand from the industrial sector is resilient, but the demand for autumn fertilizers has not yet arrived. The inventory is at a high level. The urea market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short term [23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain good. The view of over - allocating crude oil from last week is maintained, but it is not advisable to chase the high at the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities after the improvement of supply and demand [4] - For urea, it is recommended to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly, and a moderately long - biased approach with short - term trading is advisable. Part of the "long RU2601 and short RU2509" position can be closed [11] - For PVC, due to the weak supply - demand and high valuation situation, it is recommended to wait and see [11] - For benzene - ethylene, when the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [15] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward in the long - term [17] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [18] - For PX, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season comes [21] - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the peak - season downstream performance improves [22] - For ethylene glycol, although there is short - term support, there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [23] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.97, or 1.52%, to $64.74; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.95, or 1.40%, to $68.74; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.40 yuan, or 0.29%, to 485.6 yuan [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.43 million barrels to 209.84 million barrels, a 0.21% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.51 million barrels to 88.63 million barrels, a 1.68% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.59 million barrels to 105.18 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.92 million barrels to 193.81 million barrels, a 0.47% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 25, the 01 contract rose 19 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton with a basis of - 124 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, enterprise profits were still good, domestic production started to recover, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports would also rebound rapidly. The port MTO plants stopped operating and were expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand was currently weak. Although the market had expectations for the peak season and MTO resumption, port inventory was rising rapidly [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 25, the 01 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton with a basis of - 55 [6] - **Fundamentals**: The daily output was at a high level, enterprise profits were at a low level, and supply pressure remained. The compound fertilizer production start - up rate declined, the melamine production start - up rate dropped to a year - on - year low, and agricultural demand entered the off - season. Domestic demand lacked support as a whole, but exports continued to progress, and port inventory increased again. The main demand variable was exports [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded following the collective rebound of industrial products [8] - **Fundamentals**: The long side believed that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, might help increase rubber production to a limited extent; the seasonal pattern usually showed an upward trend in the second half of the year; and China's demand was expected to improve. The short side believed that the macro - economic outlook was uncertain, demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply might be less than expected [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of August 21, 2025, the full - steel tire production start - up rate in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 1.1 - ton decrease or 0.85% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 79.7 tons, a 0.8% decrease; the total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 48 tons, a 0.8% decrease; the RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,850 (+ 250) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,830 (+ 30) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,830 (+ 30) dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9,400 (+ 100) yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11,600 (+ 100) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 5,047 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4,770 (+ 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 277 (+ 2) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 154 (- 13) yuan/ton [11] - **Fundamentals**: On the cost side, the carbide price in Wuhai was 2,300 (+ 40) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 660 (+ 30) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 830 (0) dollars/ton. The caustic soda spot price was 860 (+ 10) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production start - up rate was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease; the calcium - carbide method production start - up rate was 76.8%, a 3.2% decrease; the ethylene method production start - up rate was 79.6%, a 1.7% decrease. The overall downstream production start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 30.6 tons (- 2.1), and the social inventory was 85.3 tons (+ 4.1). Enterprises' comprehensive profits were at a high level this year, the valuation pressure was large, the maintenance volume was small, and the output was at a historical high. In the short - term, multiple plants were put into operation. Downstream, the domestic production start - up rate was at a five - year low. In terms of exports, after the anti - dumping tax rate in India was determined, the export outlook weakened. The cost of carbide fluctuated, and caustic soda was strong, so the overall valuation support was weak [11] Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene - ethylene both decreased, and the basis weakened [13][15] - **Fundamentals**: The market's macro - economic sentiment was good, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. On the cost side, the pure - benzene production start - up rate fluctuated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the benzene - ethylene production start - up rate continued to rise. The benzene - ethylene port inventory continued to increase significantly. At the end of the off - season, the overall production start - up rate of the three S products on the demand side fluctuated upward [13][15] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene rose [17] - **Fundamentals**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation had limited downward space. The overall inventory decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season was approaching, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films on the demand side had started. The overall production start - up rate fluctuated at a low level and stabilized [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene rose [18] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start - up rate was expected to gradually recover, leading to a marginal increase in propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream production start - up rate fluctuated at a low level. In August, there were only 450,000 tons of planned polypropylene production capacity to be put into operation. Although the seasonal peak season might be approaching, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure was high, and there was no prominent short - term contradiction [18] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 4 yuan to 6,970 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 859 dollars, the basis was 76 yuan (- 3), and the 11 - 1 spread was 68 yuan (+ 2) [20] - **Fundamentals**: In terms of PX load, China's load was 84.6%, up 0.3%; Asia's load was 76.3%, up 2.2%. There were few changes in domestic plants, while overseas, a 530,000 - ton plant in Thailand and a 1.34 - million - ton plant in Saudi Arabia restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, down 3.5%. In terms of plants, Jiayuan reduced its load and then recovered, Jiaxing Petrochemical's extended - maintenance plant was restarting, Hainan Yisheng was under maintenance, Hengli Huizhou had an unplanned shutdown, and the second line of Hailun Petrochemical was put into operation. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 294,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of August, a year - on - year increase of 55,000 tons. The inventory at the end of June was 4.138 million tons, a 210,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 270 dollars (0), and the naphtha cracking spread was 94 dollars (+ 6). Currently, the PX load remained at a high level, and there were many short - term unexpected maintenance situations for downstream PTA, so the overall load center was relatively low. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX was expected to maintain low inventory, and there was support for the valuation at the lower end. Moreover, the terminal and polyester data were gradually improving, releasing the upstream valuation space. The current valuation was at a neutral level, and the terminal and polyester sectors were expected to continue to recover [20] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 6 yuan to 4,862 yuan, the East China spot price fell 20 yuan/ton to 4,850 yuan, the basis was 22 yuan (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan (- 14) [22] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load was 72.9%, down 3.5%. In terms of plants, Jiayuan reduced its load and then recovered, Jiaxing Petrochemical's extended - maintenance plant was restarting, Hainan Yisheng was under maintenance, Hengli Huizhou had an unplanned shutdown, and the second line of Hailun Petrochemical was put into operation. The downstream load was 90%, up 0.6%. In terms of plants, the load of some local plants increased. The terminal texturing load increased by 7% to 79%, and the loom load increased by 5% to 68%. As of August 15, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.25 million tons, a 23,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee fell 20 yuan to 228 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 7 yuan to 334 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the unexpected maintenance volume in August increased, and the inventory - building pattern changed to inventory - reduction. The PTA processing fee was expected to continue to recover. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers decreased, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates improved, releasing the upstream valuation space. In terms of valuation, PXN had the momentum to rise supported by the improved situation brought about by PTA commissioning. Recently, the valuation expanded due to the boost from unexpected PTA maintenance. It was recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the peak - season downstream performance improved [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 35 yuan to 4,509 yuan, the East China spot price rose 24 yuan to 4,542 yuan, the basis was 98 yuan (+ 6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 59 yuan (- 5) [23] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, up 6.2%. Among them, the synthetic - gas - based production load was 81.3%, up 0.8%; the ethylene - based production load was 68.3%, up 9.4%. In terms of synthetic - gas - based plants, Tianying restarted, Jianyuan reduced its load, Guanghui, Meijin, and Sinochem increased their loads, and Shaanxi Weihua was under maintenance. In the oil - chemical sector, one of Shenghong's plants restarted, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its load. Overseas, Lotte in the United States and Petronas in Malaysia restarted. The downstream load was 90%, up 0.6%. In terms of plants, the load of some local plants increased. The terminal texturing load increased by 7% to 79%, and the loom load increased by 5% to 68%. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the average daily departure volume from East China ports from August 22 - 24 was 14,000 tons. The port inventory was 50 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 384 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 569 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 1,104 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 830 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 520 yuan. In terms of industry fundamentals, overseas and domestic maintenance plants were gradually restarting, and the downstream production start - up rate was gradually recovering from the off - season, but the supply was still in excess. It was expected that the port inventory would enter an inventory - building cycle in the medium - term. The valuation was relatively high compared to the same period, the fundamentals changed from strong to weak. Although there was short - term support from less arrival volume and policy sentiment, there was downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [23]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. Hold short - term long positions. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have upward potential [2] - For methanol, suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] - For urea, the domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] - For rubber, it's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10][13] - For PVC, due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] - For benzene - ethylene, the long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [17][18] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] - For polypropylene, it's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] - For PX, the valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] - For PTA, the supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.29, or 0.46%, to $63.77; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.12, or 0.18%, to $67.79; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.30 yuan, or 0.47%, to 487 yuan [1] - **Data**: In the European ARA weekly data, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 8.73 million barrels, a 0.29% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 1.27 million barrels to 15.16 million barrels, a 9.13% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 6.64 million barrels, a 1.60% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.75 million barrels to 4.97 million barrels, a 13.07% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 7.45 million barrels, a 2.27% increase; the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.55 million barrels to 42.95 million barrels, a 1.31% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, costs are increasing, and domestic production has bottomed out and is rising. Overseas device operation has returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will also increase rapidly. The port MTO device is shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak. The market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO, and the futures price shows signs of stabilizing, but the port inventory is still rising rapidly [4] - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 1739 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level. Supply pressure still exists. The start - up of compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Domestic demand lacks support as a whole, and exports are continuing. Port inventory has risen again, and the current demand variable mainly lies in exports [6] - **Strategy**: The domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline, following the collective rebound of industrial products [9] - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help a limited increase in rubber production. The seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85% from the previous period. As of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 485,400 (- 18,000) tons [12] - **Strategy**: It's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 15 yuan to 5019 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 141 (- 9) yuan/ton [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has also decreased. Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level within the year, the valuation pressure is large, the number of maintenance is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic downstream operating rates are at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [15] - **Strategy**: Due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both risen, and the basis has weakened [17] - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - economic sentiment in the market is good, and there is still support from the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the operation of benzene - ethylene has been continuously rising. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S has fluctuated and increased [17][18] - **Strategy**: The long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [18] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7290 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, weakening by 4 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply and Demand**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support from the cost side. The spot price has risen, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. The overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the demand side, such as the raw material preparation for agricultural films, has started to stock up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized with low - level fluctuations [20] - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 12 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate may gradually recover, and the supply of propylene will gradually return. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21] - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6966 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 857 dollars. The basis was 79 yuan (+ 20), and the 11 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some overseas devices have restarted. The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The import volume of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle of August has increased year - on - year. The inventory at the end of June has decreased month - on - month [23] - **Strategy**: The valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4868 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan. The basis was 22 yuan (+ 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan (- 6) [25] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The social inventory has decreased [25] - **Strategy**: The supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 1 yuan to 4474 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4518 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan (0) [26] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - side operating rate has increased, and many domestic and overseas devices have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The import arrival forecast is 54,000 tons, and the port inventory has decreased by 6000 tons [26] - **Strategy**: The supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26]

Group 1 - Jiangsu Province has revised its chemical industry adjustment directory, targeting pesticide production, which may benefit leading companies like Yangnong Chemical, Jiangshan Chemical, and Limin Chemical [1] - Titanium dioxide companies have announced price increases, with Longbai Group raising prices by 500 RMB/ton for domestic customers and 70 USD/ton for international customers starting August 18, 2025 [1] - Over 20 titanium dioxide manufacturers have followed suit with price hikes, marking the first industry-wide increase in five months [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial effects, as indicated by July's PMI, PPI, and CPI data, suggesting a positive macroeconomic environment for the chemical sector [2] - The macroeconomic outlook is improving, with expectations of a recovery in chemical cycles supported by reduced tariffs and better external conditions [2] Group 3 - Key investment themes include: 1. Macro expectations and earnings recovery for resilient companies like Wanhua, Hualu, Huafeng, and Luxi [3] 2. Industries with favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as polyester filament and caustic soda, with companies like Tongkun and Xinfonming [3] 3. Domestic anti-involution and the exit of overseas capacity in refining and ethylene, focusing on Hengli, Rongsheng, and Sinopec [3] 4. Domestic sectors facing severe losses, particularly state-owned enterprises in soda ash and PVC, with attention on Zhongtai Chemical and Sanyou Chemical [3] Group 4 - The chemical sector has seen significant capital inflow, with the chemical ETF experiencing a net inflow of 21.54 billion RMB over eight days, averaging 2.69 billion RMB daily [4] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Index accounted for 43.54% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical and Yanhai [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. In the market, small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Attention should be paid to the short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. - The crude oil market has a complex situation. The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, but there are concerns about US summer demand and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak [3]. - The gold market is affected by macro - economic and geopolitical factors. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but the strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Attention should be paid to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. - For chemical products, the cost of PTA is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term, but there is an expectation of demand improvement. Ethylene glycol has a good fundamental situation and fluctuates with the cost end. The fundamentals of PVC, PP, plastic, etc. have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [7][8][9][11][13]. - In the agricultural products market, the corn price is under pressure due to factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand, but it rebounds in the short term. The peanut price is affected by the expected increase in planting area and is in a weak position in the short term. The cotton price is affected by domestic and foreign supply - demand situations and shows a weak shock [20][22][23]. - In the metal market, the copper market is affected by global and domestic factors, and attention should be paid to the direction choice after the convergence. The aluminum market is in a shock trend, and the alumina price is under pressure. The casting aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price to fluctuate, and the lithium carbonate price is affected by cost, supply, and demand and is dominated by sentiment in the short term [29][30][32][33][34]. - In the black market, the stainless - steel, rebar, and hot - rolled coil prices are in a weak shock in the short term due to factors such as cost support weakening and weak demand. The iron ore price may decline in the short term, and the coking coal and coke prices may also fluctuate downward [36][37][38][39][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Domestic economic growth is stable with progress, the liquidity environment is loose, and corporate profit expectations are repaired. Small and medium - cap stocks lead the rise, and the growth style is dominant. Pay attention to short - term key pressure level fluctuations and use options to build hedging transactions [2]. Crude Oil - The market speculates on the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar provides some support. However, there are concerns about US summer demand, and OPEC+ may accelerate production increase. The medium - and long - term price center of gravity is still weak. WTI main contract should pay attention to the support near $62 - 63 per barrel [3]. Gold - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with an 86.1% probability, but strong economic data boosts the US dollar and weakens the gold's safe - haven premium. Pay attention to the support near $3311 per ounce [4]. Silver - The silver price has fallen recently, affected by the cooling of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment and investors' profit - taking. Pay attention to the performance at the $37 per ounce integer mark [6]. Chemicals PTA - The cost is weakly supported by oil prices, and the supply - demand expectation is weak in the medium term. The inventory days are decreasing, and the production capacity change is not significant. There is an expectation of demand improvement in the downstream. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the resistance level at 4800 yuan per ton [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The domestic supply turns loose after the restart of coal - to - ethylene glycol plants. The inventory has a slight increase, but imports may decrease. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. It fluctuates with the cost end [8]. PVC - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has increased. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [9][10]. PP - The production capacity utilization rate has a slight increase, and the output has increased. The downstream average start - up rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force and fluctuate with market sentiment [11][12]. Plastic - The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly. The inventory has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement and fluctuate with market sentiment [13]. Soda Ash - The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The market is affected by many news, and it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Affected by environmental protection restrictions, it is recommended to use a wide - range shock thinking in the short term [16]. Rubber - The rubber price is affected by supply and demand. The supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream demand is affected by trade barriers. Pay attention to the resonance market with other domestic varieties and the pressure above the main contract [18]. Methanol - The futures price has increased, the inventory has increased, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction. The cost provides some support, and the price fluctuates in a range [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - The US corn production exceeds expectations, and the domestic supply is abundant. The downstream demand is weak, but it rebounds in the short term due to the influence of other agricultural product sectors [20][21]. Peanut - The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase. The new peanuts are about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is being consumed. The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by the strength of the oil category [22]. Cotton - The US Department of Agriculture's report is positive, but the domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The short - term supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, but there is a negative impact from the expected increase in import quotas. The price is in a weak shock [23]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, it is affected by trade policies and weather. Domestically, the supply pressure is prominent, but there is an expectation of supply shortage in the fourth quarter. The price may test the upper pressure level in the short term [24]. Soybean Oil - The import cost provides support, and the domestic supply pressure is large. The demand is driven by festivals. The price is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the lower support level [25][26]. Live Pigs - The supply will remain high in the short term, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price fluctuates weakly and may fluctuate in a range in the short term [27]. Eggs - The supply pressure is significant, and the egg - laying hen inventory is high. The short - term price is boosted by festival preparations, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The current futures price valuation is low [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - The copper market is affected by global and domestic factors. The global inventory transfer is coming to an end, and domestic policies boost market sentiment. Pay attention to the direction choice after the convergence of the price triangle [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high prices. The inventory has increased, and it may continue to fluctuate in the range of 20300 - 21000 yuan per ton [30][31]. Alumina - The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased. The main contract may be in a weak shock in the short term [32]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The cost provides support, the supply is in surplus, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and it follows the aluminum price to fluctuate [33]. Lithium Carbonate - The cost is strongly supported, the supply pressure has weakened, and the demand is resilient. The futures price has a flash - crash limit - down, and it may fill the previous gap in the short term [34]. Industrial Silicon - The supply has a slight increase, and the demand structure is differentiated. The fundamentals are under pressure and fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [35]. Polysilicon - The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The price is in a wide - range shock in the short term [36]. Black Stainless Steel - The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand in the off - season is not good. The price is in a weak shock in the short term [36]. Rebar - The "anti - involution" policy effect is reflected, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is in a high - level weak shock in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Similar to rebar, the cost support has weakened, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has accumulated. The price changes from a single - side rise to a high - level shock [38]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract may decline in the short term [39][40]. Coal - For coking coal, the supply recovery is slow, and the demand has weakened marginally. For coke, the demand is supported by high - level iron - water production, but the inventory removal rate has slowed down. The prices of coking coal and coke may decline in the short term [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] - For PVC, the supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [13] - For polyethylene, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] - For polypropylene, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [19] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 1.01%, to $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures rose $1.09, or 1.65%, to $67.04; INE main crude oil futures fell 1.00 yuan, or 0.21%, to 475.9 yuan [1] - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels to 420.68 million barrels, a 1.41% decrease; SPR increased by 0.22 million barrels to 403.43 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, a 1.20% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, a 2.06% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 43.30 million barrels, a 1.02% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract rose 33 yuan/ton to 2424 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 119 [4] - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices have risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic and overseas production starts are increasing, leading to greater supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 20, the 01 contract fell 41 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 40 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production starts have turned from decreasing to increasing, and corporate profits are still low but expected to bottom out. Supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the demand side is generally weak. The downside space is limited, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8] - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires were weak. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a 0.85% decrease [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 7 yuan to 5008 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4720 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 288 (- 37) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (+8) yuan/ton [10] - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, an increase of 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, a decrease of 0.1%. Factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 327,000 tons, and social inventory increased by 35,000 tons to 812,000 tons. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high [10] Benzene Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, and the futures price rose, with the basis weakening [12] - **Fundamentals**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and the cost side still provides support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has a large upward repair space. The supply side is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate upward following the cost side [12][13] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7275 yuan/ton, unchanged [15] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The inventory of traders is high, and the demand is in the off - season. There is a large capacity release plan in August. The price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [15] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The main contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, unchanged [16] - **Fundamentals**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The demand side is in the off - season. There is a 450,000 - ton planned capacity release in August. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the crude oil in July [16] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 70 yuan to 6844 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 837 dollars, with a basis of 43 (- 51) yuan and an 11 - 1 spread of 58 (+10) yuan [18] - **Fundamentals**: The PX operating rate remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. However, due to the new PTA device put into operation, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. The valuation has support at the bottom but is limited in the short - term upside. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil after the peak season [18][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 44 yuan to 4778 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4690 yuan, and the basis was - 2 (+6) yuan [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA operating rate is 76.4%, an increase of 1.7%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. The supply side may accumulate inventory due to new device production, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX after the downstream situation improves in the peak season [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 53 yuan to 4477 yuan, the East China spot price rose 49 yuan to 4507 yuan, the basis was 90 (- 3) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (- 10) yuan [21] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side operating rate is 66.4%, a decrease of 2%. The downstream operating rate is 89.4%, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 547,000 tons. The short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakening in mid-August will limit its upside, with a short-term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profits, and to position for Russian geopolitical expectations and hurricane supply disruptions in September on significant price drops [3]. - For methanol, coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal-to-methanol profits are still high year-on-year. Domestic and overseas production are increasing, leading to high supply pressure. Demand remains weak currently but is expected to improve in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Regarding urea, the news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while demand is average. The price is in a narrow range, and it is recommended to look for long opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, it is expected to be range-bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. - PVC has high supply, weak demand, and high valuations. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost trend upward [13][16]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term, with high production capacity planned for August. It is recommended to hold short positions [18]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July, with weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [19]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following crude oil in the peak season [22]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, with limited processing margins. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to enter an inventory accumulation cycle. The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude futures fell $0.77, or 1.22%, to $62.51/barrel; Brent crude futures fell $0.51, or 0.77%, to $65.95/barrel; INE crude futures fell 5.70 yuan, or 1.18%, to 476.9 yuan [2]. - **Inventory Data**: In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories increased by 0.39 million barrels to 8.06 million barrels, a 5.14% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 2.28 million barrels, a 1.24% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 7.36 million barrels, a 3.64% decrease; total refined oil inventories increased by 0.14 million barrels to 17.69 million barrels, a 0.82% increase [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2391 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 111 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coal prices are rising, increasing costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still high year - on - year. Domestic production is bottoming out and rising, and overseas production is at a high level, leading to high supply pressure. Traditional demand has low profits, and olefin demand is weak. The current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve in the peak season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 19, the 01 contract rose 63 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The news of lifting export restrictions boosted market sentiment. Domestic production is increasing, with low corporate profits expected to bottom out. Supply is ample, while domestic agricultural demand is ending, and overall demand is average [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated downward [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 14, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from the previous week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year, with normal domestic and export orders. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from the previous week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year, with weak export orders. As of August 10, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons, or 0.85%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 17, the inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) tons [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be range - bound and weak. It is advisable to wait and see, and to partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 53 yuan to 5001 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 251 (+ 3) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (- 11) yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side is stable, the overall operating rate is 80.3%, up 0.9%. The downstream operating rate is 42.8%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory is 32.7 (- 1) tons, and social inventory is 81.2 (+ 3.5) tons. The company's comprehensive profit is at a high level, with high production and low downstream demand. The export is under pressure from India's anti - dumping policy, and the valuation support is weakening [11]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The macro sentiment is positive, with cost support. The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply side is increasing production, and the port inventory is decreasing significantly. The demand side is in the off - season but is showing an upward trend [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects positive policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, with cost support. The spot price fell, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are high, and demand is weak in the off - season. There is a high production capacity plan in August, and the price will be determined by the cost and supply sides in the short term [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and the operating rate is expected to rise. Demand is seasonally weak. There is a 45 - ton production capacity plan in August. The price is expected to follow the crude oil trend and be slightly stronger in July [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 14 yuan to 6774 yuan, PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 835 dollars, the basis was 94 (+ 6) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 (+ 12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The load in China is 84.3%, up 2.3%, and in Asia is 74.1%, up 0.5%. Some devices are restarting or reducing production. PTA load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 12 yuan to 4734 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 8 (+ 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 (- 4) yuan [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The load is 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some devices are restarting or shutting down. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. Social inventory is 225 tons, down 2.3 tons. Supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and processing margins are limited. It is advisable to look for long opportunities on dips following PX after the peak - season demand improves [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 38 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price rose 17 yuan to 4458 yuan, the basis was 93 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 (+ 6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is 66.4%, down 2%, with some devices restarting or reducing production. The downstream load is 89.4%, up 0.6%. The import forecast is 5.4 tons, and the port inventory is 54.7 tons, down 0.6 tons. The cost side is stable, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken, with downward pressure on the short - term valuation [24].