Core Viewpoint - The company has reported a significant turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business, achieving profitability in the third quarter of 2025 compared to losses in the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The unaudited profit for the photovoltaic materials segment during the period from July 1, 2025, to September 30, 2025, is approximately RMB 960 million, which includes a post-tax gain of RMB 640 million from the sale of an associate [1]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the same segment is approximately RMB 1.41 billion, marking a recovery from the previous year's adjusted LBITDA [1]. - The average external selling price of granular silicon (including tax) is RMB 42.12 per kilogram, while the average production cash cost is RMB 24.16 per kilogram, including R&D costs [1]. Industry Positioning - The company is recognized as a transformer in the polysilicon industry and a leader in the new quality productivity of the nation [1]. - The company utilizes advanced silane fluidized bed technology, which provides a significant energy consumption advantage, aligning with the new mandatory national standards for energy consumption limits for polysilicon and germanium products [1]. - The company is committed to overcoming the challenges of "involution" and unhealthy competition in the polysilicon industry by enhancing collaboration with upstream and downstream partners to achieve a win-win situation across the industry chain [2].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Xia Yingying - Research Assistant: Yu Weihan [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is ending, which will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will ease [4]. - **Demand**: The demand from the organic silicon industry has limited changes, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field remains stable. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months [4]. - **Market Outlook**: If the supply - side operating rate declines as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - **Core Logic**: The price trend of polysilicon futures depends on factors such as the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. High volatility and risks are associated with polysilicon futures [10]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan (0.41%) and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan (- 0.41%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 209,588 lots, a daily decrease of 15,480 lots (- 6.88%) and a weekly decrease of 943 lots (- 0.45%) [13]. - The open interest of the main contract is 131,649 lots, a daily decrease of 10,732 lots (- 7.54%) and a weekly decrease of 44,914 lots (- 25.44%) [13]. 2. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 100 yuan (- 1.13%) [21]. - The price of 553 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9250 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 0.54%) [21]. - The price of 421 industrial silicon in Yunnan is 9950 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The total warehouse - receipt volume is 50,291 lots, a decrease of 66 lots (0.21%) from the previous period [36]. - The warehouse - receipt volume in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 223 tons (0.84%) week - on - week [36]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1710 yuan (3.36%) and a weekly increase of 1810 yuan (3.57%) [37]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 266,129 lots, a daily decrease of 10,047 lots (- 3.64%) and a weekly increase of 64,818 lots (32.20%) [37]. - The open interest of the main contract is 78,885 lots, a daily decrease of 1229 lots (- 1.53%) and a weekly decrease of 6102 lots (- 7.18%) [37]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 52.75 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.2 yuan (0.38%) [45]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [45]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 85 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1710 yuan (- 95.26%) and a weekly decrease of 1510 yuan (- 94.67%) [55]. - The total polysilicon warehouse - receipt volume is 7950 lots, a decrease of 100 lots from the previous period [56].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the atmosphere in the new energy vehicle market changes and the downstream replenishment pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are okay, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate due to policy news [3][5][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market is characterized by strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The upstream is recommended to seize the opportunity of selling hedging when the price surges, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stocking or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000. - For industrial silicon 11, although there is an increasing expectation of demand - side production cuts, the price still has support below. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy and consider long - position allocation in the current interval. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. - For polysilicon 11, with the news of capacity control policies, long positions can be held cautiously. If one wants to increase positions, it is recommended to participate through buying call options. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [14] 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,720, with a daily increase of 0.06%, trading volume of 225,238, open interest of 188,523 (a decrease of 4,408 compared to the previous day), and 33,076 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,570, with a daily increase of 0.59%, trading volume of 225,068, open interest of 142,381 (a decrease of 20,293 compared to the previous day), and 50,357 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of polysilicon is 50,865, with a daily increase of 3.37%, trading volume of 276,176, open interest of 80,114 (a decrease of 1,274 compared to the previous day), and 8,050 warehouse receipts [15] Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons compared to the previous week, reaching a new weekly production high. Except for a slight decrease in the production of lithium extracted from mica, the production of other lithium - extraction processes continued to rise. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises increased around the holiday, the inventory in the intermediate links decreased, and the downstream inventory slightly declined [3] - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream material factories are becoming more cautious, and the overall market trading activity is average. From October 1 - 12, the wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 546,000, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a 15% decrease compared to the same period last month [3] 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Southwest China will enter the dry season in November, and production cuts may be planned at the end of October, while large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [5] - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand is okay, and the production of the polysilicon segment continues to increase. However, considering the "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan in the industry, there is great uncertainty in demand. The news of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry on Tuesday has increased the market's concern about the future demand for industrial silicon [5] 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production of polysilicon in October will exceed expectations. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream production cuts are gradually advancing, and the polysilicon inventory has shown an obvious accumulation trend. As of the week of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,700 tons [8] - **Downstream Situation**: The national photovoltaic new - installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, hitting a new low this year, indicating a weak downstream demand [8]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-16 期权到期叠加消息端扰动，多晶硅盘面大幅反弹 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-15，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8495元/吨，最后收于8570元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-10） 元/吨，变化（-0.12）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓142381手，2025-10-15仓单总数为50357手，较前一日变化 -840手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM数据，近期新疆粘接硅煤受原煤价格下调，及西南地区枯水期硅厂停产使需求下行影响，新疆粘接硅煤价格 呈下调态势，目前新疆粘接硅煤价格至1300-1650元/吨，下调幅度约250元/吨，另外陕西地区硅煤在成本支撑减弱 情况下，也呈现小幅波动下调，下调幅度约25元/吨，目前均价至750元/吨。 消费端：据SM ...

多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 二、行情要闻 每日报告 一、行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to rising market optimism and potential regulatory measures aimed at controlling photovoltaic production capacity [2][3] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted positively, with analysts noting that the expectation of regulatory policies is driving the increase in polysilicon futures prices [2] - The current market has fully priced in expectations of capacity regulation, although the specifics of these policies remain unclear [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polysilicon market continues to experience an oversupply, with global production in October reaching 133,300 tons and wafer production at 61.92 GW [3] - Despite expectations of production cuts, actual reductions have not met forecasts, leading to continued inventory accumulation [3] - The overall industry inventory stands at approximately 277,000 tons, indicating a high level of stock [3] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if production cuts in November exceed those in wafer production, the supply-demand balance may improve [4] - There is a cautious outlook on price performance, with expectations that if regulatory policies are implemented and the supply-demand balance is restored, polysilicon prices could show positive movement [4] - However, the market remains under pressure from weak demand and high inventory levels, which may hinder sustained price increases [4][5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Copper Industry**: Global copper supply is expected to decrease by nearly 500,000 tons due to the suspension of the Efemçukuru Kakuva project and production cuts from Freeport, exacerbating market tightness [1][3][4]. Domestic demand is weak overall, but sectors like electricity, home appliances, and automobiles account for 70% of demand, with expectations for recovery in the electricity sector in Q4 [1][3]. - **Gold Market**: Gold prices have surged by 50% this year, driven by a weaker dollar, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical risks. Central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, although the pace is expected to slow in the first half of 2025 [5][6][7]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Infrastructure investment has seen a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% from January to August 2025, with expectations for a boost in Q4 due to the construction peak and major project launches [8][9][10]. - **Cement Industry**: The cement industry is experiencing production contraction and weak demand, with a year-on-year decline of 6.21% in production since August 2025. However, an increase in infrastructure demand may support cement usage in Q4 [11][12][13]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Copper Price Outlook**: The outlook for copper prices remains positive due to supply constraints and better-than-expected demand. The anticipated price range for copper by 2026 is between $12,000 and $14,000 [3][4]. - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The increase in gold prices is attributed to macroeconomic factors and a growing preference for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases since 2022, with China accounting for about 20% of global increases [5][6]. - **Infrastructure Investment Trends**: The fourth quarter is expected to see a recovery in infrastructure investment, supported by significant project funding and the issuance of special bonds [8][10]. - **Cement Price Trends**: The cement industry is implementing anti-involution policies to stabilize growth, which may lead to a price increase in Q4 due to improved demand from infrastructure projects [12][13]. Additional Important Points - **Steel Industry Challenges**: The steel industry faces environmental cost pressures and total carbon emissions control, which may lead to the exit of high-cost steel mills and promote industry consolidation [2][15][16]. - **Iron Ore Supply and Price Trends**: Iron ore supply is expected to increase in Q4, with significant growth in imports noted in September. However, if demand for iron and steel declines, raw material prices may face downward pressure [23][27]. - **Black Metal Market Outlook**: The black metal market is influenced by both supportive policies and weak demand from real estate and manufacturing sectors, leading to a cautious outlook for Q4 [20][21][24]. - **Cement Industry Future Expectations**: The cement industry is expected to face weak overall demand in 2026, with infrastructure projects providing some support. Companies with strong supply capabilities in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet are seen as having investment value [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends across various industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks.

Group 1: Monetary and Financing Data - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [1] - The total social financing scale increased by 30.09 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The net cash injection in the first three quarters was 761.9 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Gold Prices and Market Trends - The price of domestic gold jewelry has surged over 100 yuan per gram, exceeding 1235 yuan per gram as of October 15 [3] - Private equity funds have distributed over 14 billion yuan in dividends this year, with a total of 1,038 products participating in dividend payouts [3] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing Developments - A subsidiary of New Kai Lai launched a new generation of ultra-high-speed real-time oscilloscopes, supporting advanced 3nm and 5nm process development [4] - The global PC display panel shipment is expected to grow by 4% in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI products and new releases [5][6] Group 4: Corporate Performance and Announcements - High Energy Environment reported a net profit increase of 15.18% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with revenue of 10.16 billion yuan [9] - Sichuan Road and Bridge announced a 25.16% increase in the total amount of projects won in the first three quarters, reaching 97.173 billion yuan [14] - Tai Ling Microelectronics expects a net profit increase of 118% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with projected revenue of approximately 766 million yuan [15] Group 5: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.22%, returning to the 3900-point mark, with over 4300 stocks in the market experiencing gains [18] - Robotics and aviation sectors saw significant stock price increases, with several companies reaching their daily limit [18]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polysilicon industry dated October 15, 2025 [1] 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon was 50,865 yuan/ton, up 875 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 79,164 lots, down 2,224 lots; the spread between November and December contracts was -2,400 yuan, down 40 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 42,295 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 52,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 2,760 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average prices of cauliflower - grade, dense - grade, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price was 9,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; monthly export volume was 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; monthly import volume was 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; monthly output was 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,006 tons, down 164 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 69.857 million kilowatts, up 3.475 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume was 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units; the monthly average import price was 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 32.82, unchanged [2] 2. Industry News - South Korea's polysilicon leader OCI Holding plans to acquire a 65% stake in a Vietnamese wafer factory through its subsidiary OCI ONE to expand its photovoltaic wafer business. The factory is expected to be completed by the end of October [2] - Industry insiders suggest that a document to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation may be issued soon. The draft for soliciting opinions on the new national standard for energy consumption in polysilicon and germanium products has been released, which is beneficial for industry clearance in the long - term but causes short - term market concerns [2] 3. Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the progress of eliminating some production capacity may be slower than expected, and the "anti - involution" policy details are not yet in place, increasing the difficulty of new capacity launch in the short term [2] - On the demand side, wafer prices are flat, some enterprises raise prices, downstream wafer enterprises have high inventories, and new order procurement slows down. Domestic photovoltaic installations have declined for two consecutive months, and terminal demand is weak [2] - The growth in demand for N - type materials will partially offset the surplus of P - type materials, which may support prices to some extent. The market is observing whether downstream prices can rise, but the situation is not optimistic. Polysilicon is still suppressed by fundamental sentiment, but it rebounded on news today. Photovoltaic module prices have started to rise, but overall demand for polysilicon is still limited. It is expected that polysilicon will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the operation suggestion is to buy on dips [2] 4. Key Focus - There is no news today [2]