Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes Guangdong's achievements in rural revitalization and agricultural development over the past five years, showcasing a commitment to high-quality growth and poverty alleviation [3][5][6] - The "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages" initiative has been a key driver in reshaping urban-rural dynamics and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization [6][12] - Various cities in Guangdong are focusing on specific strategies for rural revitalization, such as technology-driven agriculture in Guangzhou and cultural tourism integration in Zhanjiang [13][14][16] Group 2 - The "New Year Dish Economy" is gaining momentum in Guangdong, with initiatives like the establishment of the "Canton-Shanghai New Year Dish Industry Alliance" to enhance the regional culinary economy [36][38] - Guangdong is leveraging its culinary heritage to transform traditional New Year dishes into a new economic engine, reflecting innovative thinking and systematic planning [37][38] - The emphasis on the "New Year Dish Economy" aligns with broader trends in consumer behavior as families prepare for the important New Year's Eve dinner [35][36]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides overnight market information on oilseeds, including US soybean export inspection volume, private export sales to China, Brazilian soybean exports and harvest progress, and Canadian rapeseed processing and exports [1] - It also presents spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from February 3 - 9, 2026 [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending February 5, 2026, US soybean export inspection volume was 1,136,099 tons, meeting the expected range of 800,000 - 1,650,000 tons, with 747,198 tons to China, accounting for 65.8% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop - year is 23,136,299 tons, compared to 35,290,772 tons in the same period last year [1] - Private exporters reported selling 264,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Brazil exported 1,183,561.74 tons of soybeans in the first week of February, with a daily average of 236,712.35 tons, a 26% decrease from the daily average in February last year [1] - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers completed 16% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest, up 6 percentage - points from the previous week and slightly higher than last year's 15% [1] - In Canada, rapeseed processing volume in December reached 1.08 million tons, a 6% increase from last December, and the 5.1 million tons processed from August to December set a new record for the same period. However, export volume is expected to be cut to 7 - 7.5 million tons, and only 1.4 million tons were exported in the first 4 months of the 2025/26 market year, with only 200,000 tons to China [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 3 - 9, 2026 are presented. For example, soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3020 on February 3 and 3020 on February 9 [2]

Group 1: Corn/Starch - The report provides price and profit data for corn and starch from February 3rd to 9th, 2026, including prices in different regions, basis, trade profit, import profit and loss, and processing profit [2] - In the short - term, the downstream pre - holiday restocking will support corn prices, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, attention should be paid to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap. For starch, the short - term downstream holiday stocking and inventory reduction support the enterprise's strong quotation, while the long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory changes [3] Group 2: Sugar - The report presents sugar's spot price, basis, import profit, and warehouse receipt data from February 3rd to 9th, 2026 [4] - In the international market, the 25/26 sugar - making season in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to have increased production. The actual realization of the production increase in Thailand needs attention. In the domestic market, the short - term supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the long - term price may decline if the global sugar market surplus intensifies [4] Group 3: Cotton - The initial inventory of cotton is relatively low, offsetting most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable consumption policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term investment [6] Group 4: Eggs - The report gives egg price data in different regions, basis, and prices of substitutes from February 3rd to 9th, 2026 [11] - After the pre - holiday stocking, the egg spot price stops rising and turns down. The 05 contract price depends on the farmers' chicken culling situation. The culling - white chicken price difference can reflect farmers' culling mentality and affect the second - quarter supply [12] Group 5: Apples - The report shows apple's spot price, inventory data, and basis data from February 3rd to 9th, 2026 [14][15] - Affected by holiday stocking, the inventory in apple - producing areas decreases faster. The overall trading volume of fruit farmers' goods is limited. The price of general - quality fruit farmers' goods is stable with a weak trend, while high - quality goods remain stable [15] Group 6: Pigs - The report provides pig price data in different regions and basis from February 3rd to 9th, 2026 [15] - The weekend pig spot price is weak. Near the minor New Year, market stocking starts, but the slaughter increase is limited. The supply of pigs is sufficient. In the short - term, the inventory reduction pressure is dominant, and there is still medium - term pressure, but there is long - term support. Futures are easily affected by emotions, and attention should be paid to factors like the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [15] Group 7: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - The report offers data on cotton and cotton yarn from February 3rd to 9th, 2026, including the price of 3128 cotton, imported M - grade US cotton, import profit, warehouse receipt + forecast, etc. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with precious metals leading the gains and chemicals leading the losses. Platinum rose 10.58%, while styrene fell 2.87% [1]. - The US economy shows a weak - stable total and a differentiated structure. The US manufacturing PMI in January was favorable, but the non - manufacturing sector weakened and employment data was below expectations [1]. - In China, the impact of incremental policies in Q4 2025 on the fundamentals has not been significant, but policy expectations are increasing. The manufacturing PMI in January declined, but the expectation of policy support in Q1 is strengthening [1]. - Domestic equity markets are supported by policy expectations and additional liquidity. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities. Gold in precious metals is a long - term standard allocation, while silver is on hold. Non - ferrous metals are still promising, and investors can buy on dips. Black commodities are volatile, and crude oil may rise but with high uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Precious metals led the gains (platinum +10.58%), basic metals all rose (Shanghai tin +6.61%), non - metallic building materials all rose (glass +0.56%), chemicals led the losses (styrene - 2.87%), most agricultural products fell (log - 1.90%), black series all fell (ferrosilicon - 1.44%), energy products all fell (low - sulfur fuel oil - 1.22%), most new energy materials fell (industrial silicon - 0.82%), shipping futures all fell (container shipping index (European line) - 0.39%), and most oilseeds fell (soybean meal - 0.33%) [1]. - **Financial Market**: On February 9, 2026, stock index futures generally rose, with CSI 1000 futures up 1.98%. Treasury bond futures also had small increases, and the US dollar index fell 0.36% [9]. - **Industry Index**: Most industries in the CITIC industry index rose on February 9, 2026. The communication industry led the gains with a daily increase of 5.07%, followed by the media industry with a 3.47% increase [10][11]. - **Overseas Commodities**: As of February 6, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 0.33%, ICE Brent oil rose 0.81%, COMEX gold rose 2.03%, and LME copper rose 1.22% [12][13]. - **Domestic Main Commodities**: On February 9, 2026, gold rose 3.3%, silver rose 11.65%, and tin rose 7.67%. Some commodities such as styrene fell 2.24% [14][15]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Equity Market**: Policy expectations and additional liquidity provide upward support [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Neutral overall, with better short - term opportunities but limited odds [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is a long - term standard allocation, and silver is on hold [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Promising, and investors can buy on dips after the market squeezes out the crowded trading bubble [2]. - **Black Commodities**: Volatile [2]. - **Crude Oil**: May rise due to geopolitical support, but with high uncertainty, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. 3.3 Short - term Market Judgments - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, stock index options are oscillating, and treasury bond futures are oscillating [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are both oscillating [6]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most products such as steel, iron ore, and coke are oscillating [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are oscillating, with some showing a slightly stronger trend [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most products are oscillating [7]. - **Agriculture**: Most products are oscillating, with some showing a slightly weaker trend [7].

Group 1: Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean ended a four-day rise due to ongoing soybean harvesting in Brazil and profit-taking after last week's gains [2][9] - Brazil's soybean harvest is at 16%, compared to 15% during the same period last year [2][9] - Domestic soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations with high import costs supporting prices, while ample domestic supply increases inventory pressure [2][9] Group 2: Palm Oil - BMD palm oil prices increased, following the upward trend in surrounding markets, as traders await the MPOB report [10] - January palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% month-on-month reduction [10] - Palm oil production is projected to decline by 12% to 1.61 million tons, while exports increased by 14.9% to 1.79 million tons [10] Group 3: Live Pig - Live pig futures showed weak fluctuations, with the near-month contract 2603 continuing to decline, closing down 0.52% at 11,565 yuan/ton [11] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 11.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/kg week-on-week [11] - Supply is currently abundant, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, with seasonal demand expected to recover post-Chinese New Year [11] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight adjustments, with the main contract 2603 closing up 0.17% at 2,909 yuan/500 kg [12] - The national average egg price was 3.42 yuan/jin, a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/jin week-on-week [12] - As the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream purchasing activity is subdued, and some regions have halted pricing [12] Group 5: Corn - Corn prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the March contract transitioning to May, and market activity declining ahead of the Chinese New Year [13] - Prices in Northeast China remained stable, with farmers showing low enthusiasm for selling [13] - Overall, corn prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern before the holiday, with limited potential for significant volatility [13]

Report Overview - The report is a daily agricultural product report from Wukuang Futures, covering multiple agricultural products including sugar, cotton, protein meal, oils and fats, eggs, and pigs [1][2] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,261 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton or 0.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,280 - 5,380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - As of the first half of January in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons in the previous week [3] - StoneX expects the global sugar market to remain in oversupply in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, with an estimated surplus of 2.9 million tons. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production had reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [3] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year [3] - In December 2025, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar. The cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The sugar sales volume in December was 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales volume in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 1.57 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3] Strategy - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar - crushing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,580 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price of China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [6] - From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons [6][7] - The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [7] - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [7] Strategy - In the short term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, Zheng cotton fluctuates widely at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, the planting area in the new year is reduced, and with the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,729 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,238 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day [10] - Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons [11] - StoneX's latest forecast shows that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons [11] - As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year and an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the five - year average. The soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year and a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the five - year average [11] - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week [11] Strategy - The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans has pushed up the price of US soybeans. For China, on the one hand, the long - term supply pressure will increase, but on the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost will increase. It is expected that the protein meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12] Oils and Fats Market Information - On Monday, the oils and fats futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,144 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,014 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,137 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day [14] - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month. The export was 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month. The inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month [15] - The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on biofuel tax credits, which was welcomed by the market. A public hearing is scheduled for May. The data released by shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec showed that the palm oil export volume in Malaysia in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively month - on - month [17] - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory increased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.92 million tons [17] Strategy - Driven by the biofuel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The price of oils and fats is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, the price of oils and fats fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then go long [18] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, most of the national egg prices were stable, and a few decreased. The average price in the main production areas remained at 3.38 yuan/jin. The price in Xinji decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.73 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao remained at 2.89 yuan/jin, and the price in Dongguan decreased by 0.08 yuan to 3.15 yuan/jin. The supply of goods was sufficient, and the market demand weakened. It is expected that today's national egg prices may be stable or decline [20] Strategy - The market is in the inventory - accumulation period around the Spring Festival. Under weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall and difficult to rise, which has a downward impact on the futures market. Considering that the inventory has accumulated rapidly before the festival and the spot price has dropped significantly, the near - month contract may still have a premium to be squeezed out. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy. In the long - term, after the spot price turns around, the logic of production capacity reduction will be re - traded, but the implementation path is still uncertain under low cost and high premium. Attention should still be paid to the pressure after the price rises [21] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.05 yuan to 12.09 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.25 yuan to 10.89 yuan/kg. The price - holding mentality of farmers in most areas has become stronger. It is expected that today's pig price will be mainly stable, with slight fluctuations in individual areas [23] Strategy - The large basic supply and the current accumulation of live - pig inventory make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. Considering the current weight - reduction intention of large - scale farms and the relatively high number of pigs in small - scale farms, the near - term price may still be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies. In the long - term, although the decline in production capacity has been revised down, the high fat - to - standard pig price difference, seasonal support, and the expectation of consumption demand recovery still exist. Attention should be paid to the support level after the price drops [24]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Spring Festival stocking is almost over. Due to the good profit situation, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4. The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of eggs and culled chickens in most regions remained stable, with only a few regions showing price fluctuations [2][4]. - **Profit Calculation**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 yuan. The average price of corn was 2369, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174, unchanged; the compound feed for laying hens was 2.61, unchanged [2]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable, and the sales volume in the representative selling areas as of February 5 was 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The national inventory of laying hens in January was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of chicks in January was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9% and little change year - on - year [4]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of February 6 was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 495 days, a 2 - day increase from the previous week [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 6, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 12.65 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production and circulation inventories also increased slightly [5]. 3. Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. Due to the good profit, the culling enthusiasm has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg price. So, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" event in Qingyuan aims to promote local agricultural products and enhance rural consumption, integrating online and offline sales to create a vibrant New Year shopping experience [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event features nearly 100 influencers and 42 enterprises, showcasing 66 quality products through 40 exhibition booths and 27 live streaming rooms, generating over 15 million yuan in online sales by February 7 [2][3]. - The initiative is part of Guangdong's broader strategy to activate rural consumption and support rural revitalization, marking a significant step in promoting high-quality agricultural products [4][19]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The event has led to a 15.9% year-on-year increase in Qingyuan's live e-commerce retail sales, indicating a successful start to the New Year consumption [2][3]. - The agricultural industry in Qingyuan has shown a 15.1% growth in total industrial chain output value, with projections indicating that by 2025, the output value will exceed 46.1 billion yuan [17]. Group 3: Marketing and Promotion - The event employs a multi-channel marketing strategy, utilizing media, influencers, and live streaming to enhance the visibility and reputation of Qingyuan's products [12][19]. - The participation of both domestic and foreign influencers has broadened the reach of Qingyuan's products, creating a bridge to national and international markets [13][15]. Group 4: Product Highlights - Featured products include Qingyuan chicken, Yingde black tea, and other local specialties, which have received positive feedback from consumers during the event [6][15]. - The event's immersive experience allows consumers to engage directly with the products, enhancing their purchasing decisions [8][16]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Qingyuan aims to continue promoting its agricultural products and tourism, positioning itself as a key supplier of quality goods in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [18][19]. - The success of this event serves as a model for future initiatives across Guangdong, aiming to leverage local specialties to drive economic growth and rural development [19].

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing increased volatility and overall weakness, influenced by geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and diverging global economic growth expectations [3][15]. Group 1: Market Overview - The energy sector is expected to face downward pressure on oil prices due to anticipated supply being relatively loose [15]. - Precious metals are showing a "short-term pullback, long-term bullish" trend, with gold prices supported by global uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases [15]. - Industrial metals are experiencing significant differentiation, with demand for metals related to new energy, AI, and power transition remaining resilient [15]. - The competition for strategic resources like rare earths is intensifying, with supply chain security becoming a key focus for various countries [15]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - The overall trend in commodities is characterized as oscillating, with strong bullish sectors including non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and energy chemicals, while agricultural products are underperforming [16]. - Notable bullish commodities include tin, gold, lithium carbonate, and alumina, while bearish markets include rebar, iron ore, hot-rolled steel, and live pigs [16]. - The global financial market is maintaining a mixed oscillating pattern, with stable macro sentiment and no extreme risks or strong stimulus policies impacting commodity pricing [16]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Performance - The company executed a bearish strategy on caustic soda, achieving a maximum profit of 25% before exiting the position [17]. - A bearish strategy was also implemented for live pigs, with entry points set between 11,500-11,600, stop-loss at 11,700-11,800, and take-profit at 11,400-11,300, based on supply and inventory fundamentals [17]. - Alumina is being closely monitored due to its significant price increase, indicating a strong bullish trend [18]. Group 4: Reflections and Future Strategies - The effectiveness of trend trading is highlighted, with caustic soda continuing its downward trend and alumina experiencing rapid upward movement [21]. - The market is showing extreme differentiation, necessitating a focus on strong trend commodities while avoiding weak and volatile trades [21]. - Strict risk management practices are in place, including position limits and defined stop-loss and take-profit levels, with ongoing monitoring of alumina's bullish trend and live pigs' bearish trend [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment outlook for the corn industry is "oscillating," with short - term expectations for the corn futures market to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, it is expected to remain range - bound, with attention to factors such as the pressure of ground - stored grain sales, policy grain release policies, import policies, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. 2. Report's Core View - The current corn purchase and sales are nearing the end, and the futures market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply side is bullish, the demand side is neutral - bearish, inventory is neutral - bearish, basis/spread is bullish, profit is neutral - bullish, and valuation is neutral. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and after the Spring Festival [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grain - selling progress at the grass - roots level has exceeded 60%, faster than the same period last year. There may be some selling pressure around the Spring Festival, but this year's grain quality is relatively dry, and the inventories of mid - and downstream enterprises are low, so the expected impact of selling pressure is limited. The planting cost in the 25/26 season decreased, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China, and the country as a whole is expected to have a bumper harvest. The expected rent cost for corn planting in the 26/27 season is rising (for example, in Heilongjiang, it is expected to rise by 200 yuan per mu) [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral - bearish. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory and weight are at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious yet. The egg - poultry farming profit has recovered, and the speed of culling laying hens has slowed down. The short - term feed demand for corn is still supported. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the long - term feed demand is expected to shrink. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories have increased significantly, and pre - festival stocking is basically over. Traders have not built large - scale strategic inventories and have a certain demand for replenishing stocks [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral - bearish. The domestic trade corn inventories at the north and south ports have increased month - on - month and are still at a low level. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased month - on - month, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased month - on - month [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level [5]. - **Profit**: Neutral - bullish. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs has returned to positive, the meat - poultry farming has a small profit, and the egg - poultry farming profit has recovered. The deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are in the red [5]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the basis, the valuation of the corn futures market is moderately low [5]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Pre - festival stocking is nearing the end, and the corn futures market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain, but this year's grain in the Northeast is relatively dry, and supported by the rigid demand for replenishing stocks of mid - and downstream enterprises, the expected selling pressure is limited. In addition, attention should be paid to post - festival policy grain release policies, import policy changes, and the growth of new - season wheat [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect range - bound movement; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the main corn futures contract, the average prices in different markets (such as Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port), the open interest trends of different corn futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 09), and the spreads between different contracts (C03 - C05, C05 - C09) [7][8][13]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain - Selling Progress**: Charts show the grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China [23]. - **Port and Processing Data**: Include the arrival volume of corn at northern ports, the remaining number of vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong, the price difference between Shekou Port and Jinzhou Port, the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports, etc. [25][28]. - **Import Data**: The import of grains in January and February decreased, and the import profit of US corn was at a high level. Charts show the monthly import volumes of sorghum, corn, and barley in China, as well as the theoretical import profit of US Gulf corn [33][34]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventories at the north and south ports are at a low level. Data on the inventories of feed enterprises, deep - processing enterprises, and different ports (such as Guangdong Port) are presented, as well as the inventory days of feed enterprises and the monthly feed production volume [40][47][49]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming Data**: Include the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the profit of purchasing and fattening pigs, the average price and weight of commercial pig slaughter, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers, the in - production inventory of parent - stock chickens, the egg - chicken farming profit, the age of culled laying hens, etc. [51][59][65]. - **Deep - Processing Data**: Deep - processing corn consumption has declined, and deep - processing corn inventories have increased significantly. The processing profit of starch is in the red, and starch inventories are being depleted. The开机 rate of alcohol has declined, and the processing profit is at a low level. There are also data on the开机 rate and profit of related downstream industries such as beverages, paper - making [68][73][97]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **January Report**: The corn stock - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The report shows the corn stock - to - consumption ratios of the US and other major exporting countries [116]. - **Export Data**: US corn export sales have performed well, and the report presents the export sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China of US corn [123].