期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 27 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：风格逆转 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金小幅收敛，债市窄幅波动 4 | | 蛋白粕：产量维持高位 | 盘面仍有压力 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧 | 郑糖价格底部震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：中加菜籽贸易扰动，油脂震荡上涨 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏强，盘面冲高回落 7 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 现货继续下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 9 | | | 苹果：节前走货加速，春节备货积极性增加 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：情绪较为乐观 | 棉价有所支撑 11 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 13 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：消息面扰动叠加技术性调整 金银现"过山车"行情 16 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors having their own characteristics. For example, in the macro - financial sector, the stock index futures market needs to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes; the bond market's ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. In the black sector, the overall situation is volatile, with steel products oscillating and iron ore being relatively weak. In the energy - chemical sector, the price of energy products is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relations [15][16][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Based on Fundamental and Quantitative Index Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Different futures varieties have different trend judgments, such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 for various commodities like烧碱, 二债, 上证50股指期货, etc. [4] - **Based on Quantitative Index Judgments**: There are also trend judgments for different varieties based on quantitative indicators, including偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 for commodities like豆二, 豆一, 甲醇, etc. [6] 2. Macro News - **International Trade Tensions**: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada reaches a new trade agreement with China. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs states that China - Canada cooperation does not target any third - party [8]. - **Financial Policy**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies to maintain financial stability. The central bank's deputy governor supports measures to increase the scale of RMB business in Hong Kong [8][10]. - **Market Fluctuations**: The precious metal market experiences significant fluctuations. The exchange takes measures to cool down the commodity futures market. Some companies have important developments, such as Alibaba releasing a new AI model and a large - scale financing in the AI unicorn [8][9]. - **Industry Policies**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs focuses on stabilizing beef production and milk industry relief. Tianjin optimizes housing provident fund management [10]. - **Space and Technology**: A company plans to build a space computing power network. Tencent has its own AI strategy. Humanoid robots will appear on the Spring Festival Gala [11]. - **US Government Situation**: The probability of a new US government shutdown by the end of January soars. The US durable goods orders in November 2025 show significant growth [11][12]. - **Hong Kong and OPEC+**: Hong Kong plans to increase gold storage and establish a gold trading system. OPEC+ is expected to continue the current production policy [13]. 3. Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market fluctuates downward. The style of the market is being repaired, but there is still pressure on weighted stocks. The strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of style changes and the repair of weighted indexes [15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ultra - long - end rebound may not end, and interest rates may continue to flatten. The central bank's MLF operation increases, and the monetary policy is turning loose. However, the money market is still relatively expensive [16]. 4. Black Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: From a policy perspective, the production of the steel industry is less likely to be interfered with. Fundamentally, steel stocks increase slightly, and the fundamentals are okay. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is in a volatile situation. Steel products oscillate, and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival, which may support the spot price [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: The price center of silicon - based ferroalloys is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices in the medium - term and hold short positions on silicomanganese [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The market atmosphere is easing. It is recommended to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the implementation of production line changes [22]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc inventory decreases. It is recommended to wait and see or re - enter the market with short positions as precious metals may fall back and drive down the non - ferrous sector [24]. - **Lead**: The social inventory of lead increases. It is recommended to wait and see and hold short positions. The lead consumption market is in a downturn, and the supply is relatively tight in some areas [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price may rise after a short - term correction. Attention should be paid to the possible resumption of production of mines and the impact on downstream demand [28]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may run strongly in the short term but is under pressure in the long - term. Polysilicon is in a volatile state, waiting for policy guidance [29][30]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is in a short - term consolidation state. The long - term supply is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [32]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, and the demand is not strong during the peak season. It is recommended to trade in the low - price range [34]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken. The futures price has limited upward space, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [35]. - **Apples**: The apple market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints. The price of high - quality goods remains firm, and the price of ordinary goods is under pressure [38]. - **Corn**: The corn market has large differences in the market. It is recommended to focus on the port collection situation and conduct short - term trading [39]. - **Red Dates**: The red date market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [39]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of the pig market both increase, and the spot market has intense competition. Attention should be paid to the impact of weight reduction before the Spring Festival on the spot price [41]. 7. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the supply is in surplus. There is a high geopolitical premium, and short - term market fluctuations should be noted [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, and the focus is on the geopolitical situation [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure. The upstream is in a loss state, and the price may rebound slightly but with limited space [45]. - **Rubber**: Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the approaching off - season in overseas production areas may support the price. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The supply and demand of synthetic rubber are stable and increasing. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the expectation of good fundamentals of butadiene [47]. - **Methanol**: The short - term supply and demand situation of methanol has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. In the long - term, the fundamentals are getting better, but attention should be paid to the arrival of imported goods [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market of caustic soda is bearish, but the far - month futures contract shows a strong trend [51]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The short - term market is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to consider positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG is strong in the short - term, supported by import costs. However, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [54]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp market has a lot of long - short games. The spot market trading sentiment is weakening, and the price may oscillate. If the commodity sentiment improves, it may be oscillating strongly [56]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs are oscillating strongly, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly with the improvement of commodity sentiment [56]. - **Urea**: The urea futures market is expected to be strongly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the spot market liquidity [57].

记者1月23日从聊城海关获悉，2025年，聊城市外贸进出口总值首次突破700亿元大关，达到728.1 亿元，创历史新高，同比（下同）增长15.5%，较全省进出口平均增速高11个百分点。其中出口410.6亿 元，增长4.8%；进口317.5亿元，增长33.1%。 对拉美、非洲、澳大利亚分别进出口177.3亿元、124.3亿元、81.4亿元，分别增长18.1%、93.1%、 55.1%。出口方面，对非洲、拉美分别出口55.9亿、52.1亿元，分别增长50.9%、35.4%。进口方面，自 拉美、澳大利亚、非洲分别进口125.2亿、69.9亿、68.4亿元，分别增长12.1%、72.3%、150%。 机电产品、农产品、基本有机化学品分别出口152.8亿元、55.2亿元、16.3亿元，分别增长10.2%、 7.1%、1.7%。汽车出口1.9万辆，增长59.9%，价值47.4亿元，增长31.6%。（记者 薛良诚 通讯员 李 阳） 民营企业进出口370.6亿元，增长5.5%，占全市外贸总值的50.9%。国有企业进出口260.7亿元，增 长26.1%，占35.8%；外商投资企业进出口96.7亿元，增长33.7%，占13.3% ...

【行情分析】： 玉米：市场情绪些许扰动，本周港口现货先抑后扬，价格基本维持上周水平。短期看，在产地依旧挺价惜售的氛围下，虽然有储备轮储补充， 但是供应增量依旧受限。再加上当期渠道整体库存量不高，下游又有备货的预期的支撑下，玉米价格有望维持阶段性偏强的表现。中长期来 看，需重点关注结构变化，今年粮源依旧存在供应缺口的情况下，重点关注未来进口政策和国内拍储政策变化。 | 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/27 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2026/01/20 2180 2280 2260 2430 0 0 357 2750 2820 105 -70 2026/01/21 2180 2280 2260 2430 -3 0 326 2750 2820 104 -70 2026/01/22 2180 2300 2260 2430 5 -10 326 2750 2820 86 -70 2026/01/23 2180 2300 2260 2440 0 0 338 2750 2820 80 -90 2026/0 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周一，CBOT大豆下跌，从四周高位回落，因获利了结。美豆粕和美豆油均下跌。美豆出口检验报告为 单周检验量为132.4万吨，符合市场预期。当周对中国检验量为89.7万吨，占检验量的67.76%。巴西 25/26年产量预计触及1.81亿吨，高于之前预估的1.804亿吨。另外，机构预计收割4.9%，略高于去年的 3.9%。市场关注收割同时关注南里奥格兰德的高温干旱天气。国内方面，蛋白粕继续走高，跟随商品 普涨。春节临近，下游备货需求支撑价格走高。部分油厂存在压车现象，下游物理库存逐步增加。期现 联动，推动价格偏强震荡。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 生猪： （孔海兰，从业资格号：F3032578；交易咨询资格号：Z0013544） 周一，生猪期货偏弱震荡，主力2603合约日收跌0.86%，报收11465元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生 猪日度均价12.82元/公斤，环比跌0.04元/公斤，基准交 ...

农产品早报 2026-01-27 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025 年 12 月下半月巴西中南部压榨甘蔗 217.1 万吨，同比增长 26.60%，糖产量为 5.6 万吨，同比减少 14.93%，甘蔗制糖比 21.24%，较去年同期减少 11.28 个百分点。据海关总署公布的 数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万 吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食糖 177 万吨，同比增加 31 万吨。12 月 份我国进口糖浆、预混粉合计 6.97 万吨 2025 年累计进口 118.88 万吨。印度糖及生物能源制造商协会 (ISMA)公布的数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月 15 日，印度全国糖产量已达 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to increase tariffs on imports from South Korea, including automobiles, wood, and pharmaceuticals, from 15% to 25% due to the South Korean legislature's failure to approve a previously agreed trade deal [1] - The trade agreement framework between the U.S. and South Korea was established on July 30, 2025, and reaffirmed during President Trump's visit to South Korea on October 29 [1] - South Korea is expected to invest $350 billion in the U.S. and purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas or other energy products from the U.S. as part of the trade agreement [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the U.S. imported $104.656 billion worth of goods from South Korea, while exports to South Korea amounted to $57.467 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $47.189 billion [2] - The total trade volume between the U.S. and South Korea in 2025 decreased significantly by 17.76% compared to the previous year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Liaoning Agricultural Products New Year Goods Purchase" aims to promote local agricultural products and enhance their brand influence through a series of consumer activities from January 24 to March 31, 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, with support from local agricultural departments, featuring 34 consumer promotion activities across the province [2][4]. - Activities include New Year goods fairs, large pot tastings, winter fishing events, and product selection conferences, designed to engage consumers and promote local specialties [2][4]. Group 2: Product Showcase - Over 2,000 square meters of exhibition space will showcase high-quality agricultural products from 14 cities, including specialties like Shenyang sweet potatoes, Dalian sea cucumbers, and Anshan sauerkraut [2][3]. - The event highlights 25 unique local industries through a photographic exhibition, emphasizing the advantages and characteristics of these products [3]. Group 3: Innovative Marketing Strategies - The event employs a "provincial linkage + cross-industry collaboration + online interaction" model to enhance outreach and engagement [5]. - Plans include showcasing products at major transportation hubs like airports and train stations, as well as in key commercial areas, to stimulate consumer interest and sales [5].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Liaoning Agricultural Products New Year Goods Purchase" event aims to stimulate consumer spending and promote local agricultural products in Liaoning province, running from January 24 to March 31 [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event features numerous booths showcasing high-quality local agricultural products, creating a one-stop shopping experience for consumers [1]. - A total of 34 promotional activities will be organized, including product exhibitions, tasting events, and online interactions to enhance consumer engagement [1][2]. Group 2: Marketing and Promotion Strategies - Liaoning's agricultural products will be promoted in key locations such as Shenyang Taoxian International Airport and major train stations, as well as through pop-up events in supermarkets and community areas [2]. - Collaboration with financial institutions and logistics companies will provide benefits like express delivery coupons and gifts for online orders, enhancing the sales platform for agricultural products [2]. Group 3: Brand Promotion - Representatives from 14 cities in Liaoning introduced their local specialties in an interactive format during the launch ceremony, aiming to increase brand awareness [2]. - A visual exhibition of 25 local specialty industries was presented, highlighting the advantages and characteristics of Liaoning's agricultural products [2].

如何推动乡村特色产业发展，是省政协委员张爱民一直以来关注的重点课题。在走访调研中他了解到， 虽然我省农业资源丰厚，发展乡村特色产业有基础、有优势，但部分地区仍存在产业布局分散、品牌协 同效能不充分等情况。在去年省政协十三届三次会议上，张爱民提交了《品牌创新驱动乡村特色产业发 展的建议》，提出制定县域品牌发展规划、打造地理标志公用品牌等具体实施方案，该提案被列为省政 协2025年重点提案。 省政协委员 张爱民：我带着学生我们走到了康保、行唐等6个县域进行了产业的调研和考察，我深切地 感受到广大乡村企业打造特色品牌的迫切愿望，这也让我们认识到高校服务的重要责任，我们会持续地 加大校企联动的力度，从产品开发到质量提升，从包装设计到全媒体的推广，提供系统化、持续化的品 牌支持。 在张爱民的指导下，行唐等县域打造的区域公用品牌已经初步形成一定的影响力。 （来源：河北新闻网） 转自：河北新闻网 走近省政协委员、河北师范大学美术与设计学院教授张爱民，听听他对乡村特色产业品牌建设的建议。 省两会开幕在即，在石家庄市行唐县的大枣龙头企业，省政协委员张爱民深入了解企业品牌建设成效， 进一步完善意见建议。 行唐县几丁质红枣专业合作 ...